Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertain systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34

Hydrogen-Battery Hybrid Energy System on Repurposed Offshore Platforms for Efficient Clean-Energy Transition

Due to the rising global energy demand and enhanced awareness of the environmental impact of fossil fuels, the Gulf of Mexico, traditionally known for oil extraction, offers a distinct chance to repurpose the existing offshore infrastructure. With the depletion of oil reserves, it is feasible to adapt previously utilized floating platforms for extraction to generate renewable energy, specifically through wind-generated power and hydrogen production. This adaptation seeks to promote a transport system that is more ecologically friendly in the future. Offshore wind turbines serve as the main energy source, with help from battery storage and hydrogen production to enhance the overall system performance, hydrogen creation, fuel, and electricity delivery for sustainable energy production. The system is divided into two distinct cases, each evaluated for cost, performance, and feasibility, with a focus on minimizing both the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH). The first case examines the integration of offshore wind turbines with hydrogen production. Excess electricity generated by wind turbines is directed toward hydrogen production via electrolysis. The hydrogen produced can be used as fuel for vehicles or transported to the shore via pipelines. The second case investigates a technology that combines wind turbines with battery storage. The batteries possess an ability to supply electricity for a continuous duration of 4 hours maximum each day. The main objective is to reduce the LCOE by considering the battery's charging and discharging cycles, together with the uncertain attributes of wind power and battery deterioration. The produced energy can be distributed for onshore applications or utilized for the purpose of offsetting offshore loads such as subsea oil and gas production, transportation, etc. The offshore hydrogen-battery hybrid system is improved via three advanced algorithms, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). In Case 1, PSO improves hydrogen production by efficiently managing the electrolyzer’s power consumption, decreasing production costs significantly. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is applied to improve the efficiency of the electrolyzer, reducing production costs and achieving an optimized CAPEX of $240.00 million (from an initial $300.00 million) and OPEX of $9.60 million per year. This system produces 4,720,000 kg of hydrogen annually, with a Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) of $6.40/kg and an annual profit of $9.27 million. In Case 2, GWO effectively reduces the overall energy cost by improving the charge-discharge management of batteries, which extends battery life and optimizes their use. The second case focuses on integrating battery storage, optimized using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), which enhances battery charge-discharge cycles, extending battery life and lowering costs. This system achieves an optimized CAPEX of $204.80 million (from an initial $256.00 million) and OPEX of $9.29 million per year, producing 310883.39 MWh of electricity annually at a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of $86.13/MWh, with an annual profit of $6.25 million. The implementation of a comprehensive strategy results in a substantial reduction in costs, improved energy efficiency, and a dependable supply of both electric power and hydrogen, emphasizing the benefits of converting offshore oil platforms for clean energy transition. This study explores a clean strategy to enable cost-effective repurposing of offshore O&G platforms. Both cases highlight the economic and technical feasibility of transitioning offshore oil platforms to clean energy systems, demonstrating substantial cost reductions and reliable energy and hydrogen supplies for sustainable energy production.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Field Testing of a Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control Strategy in a Residential House

Demand response plays an important role in addressing the uncertain, intermittent, and variable nature of renewable energy sources. However, to be effective, it requires a significant amount of demand load flexibility, in which buildings are important flexible assets for electricity systems. In this regard, many transactive control tools have been developed to harness this demand flexibility. Yet, such tools are mostly simulation-based or deal with a single load, which may not be sufficient to demonstrate their effectiveness. Towards this end, this paper presents a field implementation and testing of a hierarchical model-free transactive control strategy using residential building thermostatically controlled loads. The transactive control implementation incorporates elements of virtual battery, game theory, and model-free control mechanisms. Experimental field-testing results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed transactive control strategy.

Olama, Mohammed M.↗

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Autoencoder-LSTM and Persistence Model

Inherent variability in photovoltaic (PV) and associated impacts on power systems is a challenging problem for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Existing statistical and machine learning algorithms typically work well for weather conditions similar to historical data. Furthermore, uncertain weather conditions pose a great challenge to the estimation accuracy of the estimation models. With the enhanced integration of intelligent electronic devices and the realization of associated automation in the power grid, renewable energy data is becoming more accessible, which can be utilized by deep learning models and improve the PV power generation estimation accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model driven by external weather data is proposed to do day-ahead PV output forecasting at 15-minute-interval. The proposed model is motivated by the recent advancement of Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks and AutoEncoder (AE), which estimates uncertainties in sequence while making the prediction for complex weather conditions. Meanwhile, the persistence model (PM) is used to predict continuous sunny weather conditions. The forecasting result is validated with data from multiple locations

42 ENGINEERING↗

MSD CoP Webinar: Modeling the Operations of Reservoir Systems with LLMs and Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Context: This panel featured three presentations centered on the common theme of applying LLMs and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to capture the complex human-environment interactions that are central to the operation of reservoir systems. Dr. Wyatt Arnold will kick off the webinar with a talk on how analyzing LLM chain-of-thought reasoning reveals sophisticated quantitative justification and risk awareness, showing promise as a bridge between quantitative models and value-driven water management decisions. Next, Dr. Matteo Giuliani will build on this with a discussion demonstrating that AI- and IRL-driven approaches can infer the trade-offs between flood control and water supply using historical observations. Finally, Dr. Rohan Singh Wilkho will close the webinar with a talk establishing IRL as a generalizable diagnostic tool for decoding decision-making in managed hydrologic and human-infrastructure systems. Across the three presentations, the application of LLMs and IRL opens new possibilities for the development of adaptive, transparent, and human-aware models supporting water management in an increasingly uncertain future. Presenters: Wyatt Arnold (Politecnico di Milano); Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano); Rohan Singh Wilkho (Cornell University) Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair); David Gold (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair) This webinar was held on: June 23rd, 2026 from 12-1 PM EST.

Arnold, Wyatt [Politecnico di Milano]↗

Spacecraft control research at NASA

Future missions is space will require controlling spacecraft which are both large and flexible. The limited inherent damping and the uncertain and changing dynamic characteristics of many of these vehicles, such as manned space stations and large antennas, will revolutionize spacecraft control requirements. In preparation for the time that such control systems are required, considerable research and technology development is necessary. A program is in place at NASA for the development of active control technology to support major initiatives for space station and advanced spacecraft. A number of key control technology program needs are cited in the paper as required for these and other future NASA missions together with an integrated controls/structures technology flight experiment to demonstrate and validate technology for large flexible structures.

Dahlgren, J. B.↗

The NESSUS finite element code

The objective of this development is to provide a new analysis tool which integrates the structural modeling versatility of a modern finite element code with the latest advances in the area of probabilistic modeling and structural reliability. Version 2.0 of the NESSUS finite element code was released last February, and is currently being exercised on a set of problems which are representative of typical Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) applications. NESSUS 2.0 allows linear elastostatic and eigenvalue analysis of structures with uncertain geometry, material properties and boundary conditions, which are subjected to a random mechanical and thermal loading environment. The NESSUS finite element code is a key component in a broader software system consisting of five major modules. NESSUS/EXPERT is an expert system under development at Southwest Research Institute, with the objective of centralizing all component-specific knowledge useful for conducting probabilistic analysis of typical Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. NESSUS/FEM contains the finite element code used for the structural analysis and parameter sensitivity evaluation of these components. The task of parametrizing a finite element mesh in terms of the random variables present is facilitated with the use of the probabilistic data preprocessor in NESSUS/PRE. An external database file is used for managing the bulk of the data generated by NESSUS/FEM.

Dias, J. B.↗

The physical characteristics of satellite surfaces

Both exogenic and endogenic effects have been proposed to explain the major observed characteristics of satellite surfaces. The current view is that the basic properties of most surfaces result from the intrinsic composition of a body and its geologic history. Exogenic effects have, however, played a role in modifying the appearance of nearly all surfaces. The most important exogenic effect is impact cratering, one manifestation of which is the production of micrometeoroid gardened regoliths on airless bodies. On large, silicate bodies the micrometeoroid bombardment can produce an optically mature, dark agglutinate-rich soil; the nature of regoliths on predominantly icy satellites remains uncertain. Direct accumulation of infalling material does not appear to play a major role in modifying most surfaces. Solar wind radiation effects have not altered greatly the optical properties of solar system objects; magnetospheric charged particles may have modified the optical properties of some outer planet satellites (e.g., sulfur ion bombardment in the case of some of the satellites of Jupiter). Other effects, such as aeolian and liquid/solid chemical weathering, may be important on satellites with atmospheres like Titan and Triton.

Veverka, J.↗

Advanced Extravehicular Activity Breakout Group Summary

This viewgraph document summarizes the workings of the Advanced Extravehicular Activity (AEVA) Breakout group in a Martian environment. The group was tasked with: identifying potential contaminants and pathways for AEVA systems with respect to forward and backward contamination; identifying plausible mitigation alternatives and obstacles for pertinent missions; identifying topics that require further research and technology development and discuss development strategies with uncertain Planetary Protection (PP) requirements; Identifying PP requirements that impose the greatest mission/development costs; Identifying PP requirements/topics that require further definition;

Kosmo, Joseph J.↗

Impact Study of the Assimilation of Surface Sensitive Microwave Radiances in the GEOS

The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of assimilating low-frequency microwave observations from different satellite Microwave radiometers such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2). These observations are relevant to the description of air temperature, humidity, and surface parameters such as ocean surface temperature. Their assimilation into Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation system helps better constrain models in regions where very few observations are assimilated. In recent years, surface sensitive channels have not been assimilated in GEOS because of their large sensitivities to uncertain surface parameters such as emissivity and skin temperature.

Ebrahimi, Hamideh↗

Development of Multiresolution Capabilities for the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool A progress update

INL researchers work on technoeconomic analyses for integrated energy systems (IES) using the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). Within FORCE, researchers use the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool to conduct optimization of grid portfolios under uncertain market conditions. These optimizations determine optimal capacities for all IES components and strategies for resource dispatch which maximize some economic metric (e.g., net present value). Resource dispatch occurs on finer timescales (typically hours) and thus are asked to respond to a given time series (e.g. hourly load demand profiles for a grid, or pre-determined electricity prices). Volatile and complex bidding dynamics as well as poorly forecasted weather events within deregulated markets add uncertainty to the time series; FORCE can address this uncertainty by training a reduced order model on historical time series and generate unique synthetic time series which represent individual scenarios or realizations of the market. The IES configuration can be simulated under these different sampled realizations and a stochastic optimization is conducted which optimizes the expected value of the desired economic metric. The training of a synthetic time series generator is limited by the chosen time resolution; dynamics can occur on different time scales. Seasonal demand trends can dominate faster dynamical events (such as power outages from certain sectors or severe weather events) which might not get captured correctly by the trained model. In this report, we investigate different ways of addressing the training and generation of time series on multiple time scales using three main algorithms: wavelet decomposition, dynamic mode decomposition, and generative adversarial networks for time series. We demonstrate a time series analysis that yields information on not just the frequency space but also temporal space: where a fast Fourier transform can provide what frequencies dominate, the new algorithms can provide when the frequencies dominate as well. These analyses can help improve IES optimization by allowing researchers to couple simulations at different timescales when it is most needed - seasonal, day-ahead, and real time optimization - with greater computational efficiency. Future work will include implementation of a subset of the proposed algorithms into the FORCE toolset and application of these analyses into multiple timescale optimization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Strategic and Tactical Functions in an Autonomous Air Traffic Management System

This paper evaluates, by means of fast-time simulation, performance of a candidate system for autonomous air traffic management. Advancing towards autonomy in air traffic management may be necessary in order for new air vehicle types such as electric Vertical Take Off and Landing (eVTOL) to operate safely and efficiently in airspace shared with conventional traffic. To account for uncertain prediction, autonomous air traffic management was divided into two integrated and coordinated subsystems: strategic scheduling, performed at predeparture, and tactical conflict detection and resolution, performed throughout the flight. The conflict detection and resolution subsystem contained a second tactical scheduling function that applied to flights operating in the airspace near the destination airport. This paper compares and contrasts the two subsystems and uses fast-time simulation to demonstrate the comparisons. A scenario of 54 flights inbound to Newark Liberty International Airport was simulated multiple times with different parameters. The scenario was created using flight plans recorded from the National Airspace System on a low weather, average traffic day in April 2018. Whereas the routes were not changed, the departure times of the flights were modified to increase arrival rates at the Newark runway and arrival meter fixes. Results of the simulations showed that the autonomous air traffic management system was able to safely manage the traffic, even with prediction uncertainty. In addition, they showed the importance of including flight holding maneuvers, in addition to path stretching, in conflict detection and resolution and of coordinating strategic and tactical scheduling. Finally, a tradeoff between absorbing the delay calculated by strategic scheduling on the ground versus in the air showed that taking most of the delay on the ground is cost effective for a simple idealized cost function. However, taking a little of the delay in the air prevented throughput on the runway from dropping for short periods due to trajectory prediction uncertainty.

air traffic control↗

Strategic and Tactical Functions in an Autonomous Air Traffic Management System

This paper evaluates, by means of fast-time simulation, performance of a candidate system for autonomous air traffic management. Advancing towards autonomy in air traffic management may be necessary in order for new air vehicle types such as electric Vertical Take Off and Landing (eVTOL) to operate safely and efficiently in airspace shared with conventional traffic. To account for uncertain prediction, autonomous air traffic management was divided into two integrated and coordinated subsystems: strategic scheduling, performed at predeparture, and tactical conflict detection and resolution, performed throughout the flight. The conflict detection and resolution subsystem contained a second tactical scheduling function that applied to flights operating in the airspace near the destination airport. This paper compares and contrasts the two subsystems and uses fast-time simulation to demonstrate the comparisons. A scenario of 54 flights inbound to Newark Liberty International Airport was simulated multiple times with different parameters. The scenario was created using flight plans recorded from the National Airspace System on a low weather, average traffic day in April 2018. Whereas the routes were not changed, the departure times of the flights were modified to increase arrival rates at the Newark runway and arrival meter fixes. Results of the simulations showed that the autonomous air traffic management system was able to safely manage the traffic, even with prediction uncertainty. In addition, they showed the importance of including flight holding maneuvers, in addition to path stretching, in conflict detection and resolution and of coordinating strategic and tactical scheduling. Finally, a tradeoff between absorbing the delay calculated by strategic scheduling on the ground versus in the air showed that taking most of the delay on the ground is cost effective for a simple idealized cost function. However, taking a little of the delay in the air prevented throughput on the runway from dropping for short periods due to trajectory prediction uncertainty.

air traffic control↗

A Combined Al-Mg/Pb-Pb Age of the Solar System

Astrophysical models of planet formation and protoplanetary disk evolution demand precise and accurate timing of the sequence of events in the solar nebula, relative to a time t=0, usually taken to be during the short epoch of CAI (Ca-rich, Al-rich inclusion) formation. Most CAIs formed withlive26Al (mean-life τ26= 1.034 Myr [1]), with an abundance 26Al/27Al ≈ (26Al/27Al)SS= 5.23 × 10-5[2]. We adopt this as the widespread level of 26Al in the solar nebula at t=0. Assuming spatial homogeneity of 26Al, an inclusion that had less 26Al, (26Al/27Al)0, formed a time Δt26= τ26ln[(26Al/27Al)SS/ (26Al/27Al)0] after t=0.These ages are typical precise to within ±0.1 Myr. Igneous bulk meteorites and inclusions can be relatively dated by the Al-Mg chronometer, but only ifΔt26<6 Myr. The Pb-Pb system is useful as a longer relative chronometer. It yields absolute ages tPb using 207Pb/206Pb, 206Pb/204Pb, and 238U/235U ratios measured indifferent portions of a sample, assuming certain half-lives [4]. These absolute ages are uncertain to within ±9 Myr due to uncertainties in the 235U half-life[3], but times of formation ΔtPb= tCAI–tPb relative to t=0, are more precise(±0.5Myr),iftCAI can be found. Here, tCAI means the Pb-Pb age that would be measured in CAIs using the half-lives the community typically uses, if they achieved isotopic closure at t=0. Unfortunately, direct Pb-Pb dating of CAIs has not definitively determined tCAI. Based on four CAIs with canonical (26Al/27Al)0,[5,6] found tPb= 4567.30 ± 0.16 Myr. No other CAI ages with measured 238U/235U have been reported in the refereed literature, but there are hints of other CAIs with ages tPb= 4568.0 ± 0.2 Myr [7] and tPb= 4568.3 ± 0.2 Myr [8].It is unclear whether anyof these igneous type B CAIs isotopically closed at t=0 or represents tCAI. Instead of measurements, we advocate finding tCAI by minimizing the discrepancies between the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb chronometers. Assuming Δt26=ΔtPb, we find the implied t’CAI= tPb+Δt26, then define t*CAIas the weighted mean of the t’CAI. t*CAIis the best guess for the Pb-Pb age of t=0; the assumption of homogeneity is justified if the t’CAI cluster within errors around t*CAI. This statistical approach is similar to, but improves on, that of[9]. We find t*CAI= 4568.73 ± 0.16 Myr. Below we discuss our methodology and the implications of this age for CAIs, 1.4 Myr older than the reported and typically used age 4567.30±0.16 Myr. Methods: We base our estimate of t*CAIon five achondrites for which published (26Al/27Al)0and Pb-Pb ages exist: the quenched angrites D’Orbigny, Sahara 99555 (SAH 99555), and Northwest Africa (NWA) 1670; the pseudo-eucrite Asuka 881394; and the inner disk achondrite. All are “NC” (non-carbonaceous) achondrites that likely cooled quickly enough that the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems achieved isotopic closure simultaneously. We also considered the “CC” (carbonaceous chondrite-like) achondrites NWA 2796 and NWA 6704, butdo not include them in our fit. Al-Mg and Pb-Pb seem not to have closed simultaneously, possibly because formation in the outer disk from volatile-rich composition led to slower cooling. Of the 8 chondrules from NWA 5697 measured by [20,21], we also consider the 4 for which 238U/235U was measured: 2-C1, 5-C2, 3-C5, 11-C1.Depending on their post-formation thermal histories, the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems in chondrules may or may not have closed simultaneously. Table 1: (26Al/27Al)0, Pb-Pb ages of selected samplesSample(26Al/27Al)0/ 10-6RefPb-PbRefD’Orbigny3.98±0.15104563.43±0.19♮10-12SAH 995553.64±0.18104563.88±0.2712NWA16705.92±0.59104564.39±0.24*10Asuka 88139413.1±0.5613-154564.98±0.1715NWA 73253.03±0.14164563.4±2.616NWA 27963.94±0.16174562.89±0.5917NWA 67043.03±0.14184562.76±0.26192-C17.56±1.53204567.57±0.56*215-C27.04±1.51204567.54±0.52*213-C58.85±1.83204566.20±0.63*2111-C15.55±1.84204565.84±0.72*21*regression based on one subset of data points ♮weighted mean of two datasets Pb-Pb ages are proportional to the intercept of the line formed by linear regression of 207Pb/206Pb vs. 206Pb/204Pb data from various washes, leachates and residues of acid dissolution of a sample. Because contamination by terrestrial or primordial Pb is pervasive, some fractions must be excluded from regressions to ensure a fit with acceptable mean squares weighted deviation (MSWD). Usually points are excluded based on low [Pb], or low 206Pb/204Pb ratio(low radiogenic component), with single outliers identified [11,12,15,16,17]. In the starred examples (Table 1)and the case of 3 CAI Pb-Pb ages [5], up to half the points were excluded solely because did not fit a pre-determined line. This approach is vulnerable to confirmation bias and produces fits with low MSWD and too-low Pb-Pb age uncertainty. Regressing the same data points as [10], were produce the Pb-Pb age of NWA 1670 of 4564.39±0.24 Myr. But selecting other combinations of data points, other, equally valid, isochrons yield ages from 4563.77±0.21 Myr to 4564.64±0.23 Myr. Similar arguments apply to the Pb-Pb isochrons built by [21] for chondrules 2-C1 (we find 4567.33±0.44 to 4567.85±0.46 Myr), 5-C2 (4566.84±0.53 to 4567.70±0.44 Myr), 3-C5 (4565.84±0.54to 4567.04±0.54)and 11-C1 (4565.36±0.51 to 4565.74±0.45 Myr). Our adopted ages for these and NWA 1670 are listed in Table 2.Table 2. tCAI estimated from various components, using our regressions for the chondrules & NWA 1670.SampleΔt26(Myr)tPb(Myr)t’CAI(Myr)D’Orbigny5.05±0.044563.43±0.194568.48±0.19SAH 995555.14±0.054563.88±0.274569.02±0.27NWA16704.64±0.104564.21±0.634568.85±0.67Asuka 8813943.81±0.044564.98±0.174568.79±0.17NWA 73255.33±0.054563.4±2.64568.7±2.6NWA 27965.06±0.044562.89±0.594567.95±0.59NWA 67045.29±0.134562.76±0.264568.05±0.292-C12.00±0.214567.59±0.704569.59±0.725-C22.07±0.224567.23±0.914569.30±0.933-C51.84±0.214566.44±1.124568.28±1.1411-C12.32±0.344565.52±0.664567.84±0.73achondrite4568.72±0.16chondrules4568.76±0.58combined4568.73±0.16A weighted average of the five NC achondrites(or just D’Orbigny, SAH 99555 and Asuka 881394)yields t*CAI= 4568.72 ± 0.16Myr. All are consistent with this value to within 1.8σ, and MSWD=1.5. Including the 4 U-corrected chondrules, t*CAI= 4568.73± 0.16Myrwith MSWD=1.66, which is statistically significant. All chondrules and NC achondrites are consistent with this to within 1.8σ, (Figure 1).Figure 1. Al-Mg formation times after t=0 vs. Pb-Pb ages. The five NC achondrites and four chondrules are consistent with a Pb-Pb age of t=0 of 4568.7 Myr. Discussion: The data from achondrites and chondrules are consistent with a single Pb-Pb age at t=0, justifying the assumption of 26Al homogeneity. The age, 4568.7 Myr, is ≈1.4 Myr older than the commonly accepted Pb-Pb age of CAIs that formed with canonical 26Al/27Al at t=0 [3]. Others have interpreted the discrepancy to signify 26Al heterogeneity in the CAI-forming region[5,21]. We suggest instead that CAIs were exposed to transient heating events that reset the Pb-Pb system without disturbing the Al-Mg system. Notably, chondrules typically experienced transient heating at these times in the nebula [22]. If so, direct measurements of CAIs will not yield as reliable a Pb-Pb age of t=0 as statistical approaches like this and that of [9].References:[1] Auer et al. 2009. [2] Jacobsen, B et al. 2008, EPSL 272, 353-364. [3] Tissot, Fet al. 2017, GCA 213, 593-617.[4] Villa, I et al. 2016, GCA 172, 387-392.[5] Amelin, Y et al. 2010, EPSL 300, 343-350.[6] Connelly, Jet al. 2012, Science 338, 651.[7] Bouvier, Aet al. 2011, LPICo 1639, 9054. [8] Bouvier, Aand Wadhwa, M2010, Nat Geosci 3, 637-641.[9] Nyquist, Let al. 2009, GCA 73, 5115-5136.[10] Schiller et al. 2015. [11] Wadhwa & Brennecka 2012. [12] Tissot et al. 2017. [13] Nyquist et al. 2003. [14] Wadhwa et al. 2009. [15] Wimpenny et al. 2019, GCA 244, 478-501.[16] Koefoed et al. 2016, GCA 183, 31-45. [17] Bouvier, A et al. 2011, GCA 75, 5310-5323. [18] Sanborn, Met al. 2019, GCA 245, 577-596. [19] Amelin, Yet al. 2019, GCA 245, 628-642.[20] Bollard, Jet al. 2017, Sci Adv 3 ,e1700407. [21] Bollard, Jet al. 2019, GCA 260, 62-83.[22] Villeneuve, J et al. 2009, Science 325, 985

S. J. Desch↗

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗

F100 Engine Emissions Tested in NASA Lewis' Propulsion Systems Laboratory

Recent advances in atmospheric sciences have shown that the chemical composition of the entire atmosphere of the planet (gases and airborne particles) has been changed due to human activity and that these changes have changed the heat balance of the planet. National Research Council findings indicate that anthropogenic aerosols1 reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Atmospheric global models suggest that sulfate aerosols change the energy balance of the Northern Hemisphere as much as anthropogenic greenhouse gases have. In response to these findings, NASA initiated the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) to advance the research needed to define present and future aircraft emissions and their effects on the Earth's atmosphere. Although the importance of aerosols and their precursors is now well recognized, the characterization of current subsonic engines for these emissions is far from complete. Furthermore, since the relationship of engine operating parameters to aerosol emissions is not known, extrapolation to untested and unbuilt engines necessarily remains highly uncertain. Tests in 1997-an engine test at the NASA Lewis Research Center and the corresponding flight measurement test at the NASA Langley Research Center-attempted to address both issues by measuring emissions when fuels containing different levels of sulfur were burned. Measurement systems from four research groups were involved in the Lewis engine test: A Lewis gas analyzer suite to measure the concentration of gaseous species 1. including NO, NOx, CO, CO2, O2, THC, and SO2 as well as the smoke number; 2. A University of Missouri-Rolla Mobile Aerosol Sampling System to measure aerosol and particulate properties including the total concentration, size distribution, volatility, and hydration property; 3. An Air Force Research Laboratory Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer to measure the concentration of SO2 and SO3/H2SO4; and 4. An Aerodyne Research Inc. Tunable Diode Laser System to measure the concentrations of SO2, SO3, NO, NO2, CO2, and H2O. By September 1997, an F100 engine operating at several power levels at sea level and up to six simulated altitudes had been tested with commercial jet fuels with three levels of sulfur content and one military jet fuel. The data are being vigorously analyzed. A complete report is anticipated for the 1998 Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project Annual Conference.

Wey, Chowen C.↗

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗

Soil management practices can contribute to net carbon neutrality in California

Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO 2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California's ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute $1.4^{2.1}_{0.7}$% ($-1.8^{-2.7}_{ -0.9}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $4.6^{6.9}_{2.3}$% ($-6.0^{-8.9}_{-3.0}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) of the additional emissions reduction needed (beyond previous targets) to meet the 2045 net neutrality goal (-129.3 Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, on an average annual basis, including climate uncertainty. Including EW in these scenarios increases the total contributions of management practices to $4.1^{5.6}_{2.5}$% ($-5.2^{-7.3}_{-3.2}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $13.5^{18.6}_{8.2}$% ($-17.5^{-24.2}_{-10.7}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, of this reduction. This highlights that the extent of implementation area is a major factor in determining benefits and that EW has the potential to make a real contribution to net reduction targets. Results are similar across climate cases, indicating that contemporary field data can be used to make future projections. With EW there remains mechanistic uncertainties, however, such as rock dissolution rate and environmental controls on weathering products, which require additional field research to improve understanding of the technological efficacy of this approach for California's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗