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At least 613 records · Page 34
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NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of semiempirical atmospheric density models for orbit determination applications

This paper presents the results of an investigation of the orbit determination performance of the Jacchia-Roberts (JR), mass spectrometer incoherent scatter 1986 (MSIS-86), and drag temperature model (DTM) atmospheric density models. Evaluation of the models was performed to assess the modeling of the total atmospheric density. This study was made generic by using six spacecraft and selecting time periods of study representative of all portions of the 11-year cycle. Performance of the models was measured for multiple spacecraft, representing a selection of orbit geometries from near-equatorial to polar inclinations and altitudes from 400 kilometers to 900 kilometers. The orbit geometries represent typical low earth-orbiting spacecraft supported by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The best available modeling and orbit determination techniques using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) were employed to minimize the effects of modeling errors. The latest geopotential model available during the analysis, the Goddard earth model-T3 (GEM-T3), was employed to minimize geopotential model error effects on the drag estimation. Improved-accuracy techniques identified for TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination analysis were used to improve the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-based orbit determination used for most of the spacecraft chosen for this analysis. This paper shows that during periods of relatively quiet solar flux and geomagnetic activity near the solar minimum, the choice of atmospheric density model used for orbit determination is relatively inconsequential. During typical solar flux conditions near the solar maximum, the differences between the JR, DTM, and MSIS-86 models begin to become apparent. Time periods of extreme solar activity, those in which the daily and 81-day mean solar flux are high and change rapidly, result in significant differences between the models. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, the standard JR model was outperformed by DTM. Modification of the JR model to use a geomagnetic heating delay of 3 hours, as used in DTM, instead of the 6.7-hour delay produced results comparable to or better than the DTM performance, reducing definitive orbit solution ephermeris overlap differences by 30 to 50 percent. The reduction in the overlap differences would be useful for mitigating the impact of geomagnetic storms on orbit prediction.

Cox, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Thermographic Characterization of Impact Damage in SiC/SiC Composite Materials

SiC/SiC composite materials targeted as turbine components for next-generation aero-engines are being investigated at NASA Glenn Research Center. In order to examine damage mechanisms in these materials, SiC/SiC coupons were impacted with 1.59 mm diameter steel spheres at increasing velocities from 115 m/s to 400 m/s. Pulsed thermography, a nondestructive evaluation technique that monitors the thermal response of a sample over time, was utilized to characterize the impact damage. A thermal standard of similar material was fabricated to aid in the interpretation of the thermographic data and to provide information regarding thermography system detection capabilities in 2.4 mm thick SiC/SiC composite materials. Flat bottom holes at various depths with aspect ratios greater than 2.5 were detectable in the thermal images. In addition, the edges of holes at depths of 1.93 mm into the sample were not as resolvable as flat bottom holes closer to the surface. Finally, cooling behavior was characterized in SiC/SiC materials and used to determine impact damage depth within an 8.5% error of a known depth.

Fox, Dennis S.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Comparison Between Experiment and Prediction for a Transonic Turbulent Separated Flow

Solutions of the time-dependent, mass-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are compared In detail with experimental results obtained on an axisymmetric "bump" model at a transonic Mach number that produced an extensive separated now region. In addition, an inverse boundary method is evaluated for this type of flow. The Cebeci-Smith algebraic and the Wilcox-Rubesin two-equation turbulence models used in the Navier-Stokes calculations both predict the maximum boundary-layer displacement thickness generated by the interaction reasonably well, with the details of the now best described with the two-equation formulation. However, both models predict a shock location substantially farther aft on the bump than observed experimentally. This error in shock location was slightly less with the two-equation model (0.12 chord compared with 0.16 chord). In the vicinity of the shock, the calculations predict a more rapid increase in turbulent shear stress than observed in the experimental results; this more rapid increase is believed to be the cause or the poor predictions in shock position.

Johnson, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling the Height of Young Forests Regenerating from Recent Disturbances in Mississippi using Landsat and ICESat data

Many forestry and earth science applications require spatially detailed forest height data sets. Among the various remote sensing technologies, lidar offers the most potential for obtaining reliable height measurement. However, existing and planned spaceborne lidar systems do not have the capability to produce spatially contiguous, fine resolution forest height maps over large areas. This paper describes a Landsat-lidar fusion approach for modeling the height of young forests by integrating historical Landsat observations with lidar data acquired by the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation (ICESat) satellite. In this approach, "young" forests refer to forests reestablished following recent disturbances mapped using Landsat time-series stacks (LTSS) and a vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm. The GLAS lidar data is used to retrieve forest height at sample locations represented by the footprints of the lidar data. These samples are used to establish relationships between lidar-based forest height measurements and LTSS-VCT disturbance products. The height of "young" forest is then mapped based on the derived relationships and the LTSS-VCT disturbance products. This approach was developed and tested over the state of Mississippi. Of the various models evaluated, a regression tree model predicting forest height from age since disturbance and three cumulative indices produced by the LTSS-VCT method yielded the lowest cross validation error. The R(exp 2) and root mean square difference (RMSD) between predicted and GLAS-based height measurements were 0.91 and 1.97 m, respectively. Predictions of this model had much higher errors than indicated by cross validation analysis when evaluated using field plot data collected through the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of USDA Forest Service. Much of these errors were due to a lack of separation between stand clearing and non-stand clearing disturbances in current LTSS-VCT products and difficulty in deriving reliable forest height measurements using GLAS samples when terrain relief was present within their footprints. In addition, a systematic underestimation of about 5 m by the developed model was also observed, half of which could be explained by forest growth that occurred between field measurement year and model target year. The remaining difference suggests that tree height measurements derived using waveform lidar data could be significantly underestimated, especially for young pine forests. Options for improving the height modeling approach developed in this study were discussed.

Li, Ainong↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Management of Operations under Visual Flight Rules in UTM for Disaster Response Missions

The disaster response domain has experienced an increased focus in recent years due to the rise in number and scale of events, lessons learned from past experience, and emerging technologies that make possible a more coordinated and effective response. As part of this focus, JAXA and NASA have been collaborating on the integration of manned and unmanned aircraft in support of disaster response operations through integrated testing of their respective mission planning and optimization system (Disaster Relief Aircraft Information Sharing Network, or D-NET) and an automated UAS traffic management system (e.g., UTM). In 2018, JAXA and NASA jointly participated in a large-scale disaster drill in Japan where the integration of systems was successfully demonstrated through real-time data exchanges, visualization, and decision making as part of the coordinated airspace management of a manned helicopter in VFR conditions and unmanned small UAS operating in common areas. This work details a flight test consisting of two flights that were conducted December 2019 near the Chofu Aerodrome in Tokyo, which focused on the evaluation of pilots operating under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) communicating through D-NET and sharing intent and position information within UTM. This work contributes to defining the necessary requirements for digital coordination between manned and unmanned operations. UTM requires the use of operation volumes, which are spatial and temporal volumes that encompass UAS flight trajectories and account for technical performance errors and deviations due to disturbances (e.g., wind). A series of flights, representing different missions, used landmark-based operation volumes and conformance of the aircraft to those operation volumes were tracked within UTM. Experienced disaster response helicopter pilots provided insight on the development of the operation plans and their usability during disaster response operations. Results from the flight test supported the suggested benefits of using landmarks for planning and positional awareness and highlighted the need for future research in advanced visualization capabilities to support operations that consider both system constraints and flight deck/airspace management interaction.

disaster response↗
NASA NTRS1989

Evaluation and analysis of the orbital maneuvering vehicle video system

The work accomplished in the summer of 1989 in association with the NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Research Fellowship Program at Marshall Space Flight Center is summarized. The task involved study of the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) Video Compression Scheme. This included such activities as reviewing the expected scenes to be compressed by the flight vehicle, learning the error characteristics of the communication channel, monitoring the CLASS tests, and assisting in development of test procedures and interface hardware for the bit error rate lab being developed at MSFC to test the VCU/VRU. Numerous comments and suggestions were made during the course of the fellowship period regarding the design and testing of the OMV Video System. Unfortunately from a technical point of view, the program appears at this point in time to be trouble from an expense prospective and is in fact in danger of being scaled back, if not cancelled altogether. This makes technical improvements prohibitive and cost-reduction measures necessary. Fortunately some cost-reduction possibilities and some significant technical improvements that should cost very little were identified.

Moorhead, Robert J., II↗
NASA NTRS1998

A New Approach to Overcoming Spatial Aliasing in Structural Damage Detection

Aircraft, reusable launch vehicles,unmanned aircraft, and other advanced structures are being built using lightweight composite materials/metals with design safety factors as low as 1.25. These advanced structures operate in uncertain and severe environments and are susceptible to damage such as delamination, fiber/matrix damage, hydrothermal strain in composite materials, and fatigue and cracking in metals. To ensure human safety and load-bearing integrity these structures must be inspected to detect and locate often invisible damage and faults before they become catastrophic. Conventional methods of non-destructive evaluation sometimes miss significant damage and are time consuming and expensive to perform. In contrast, vibrometry or vibration signature techniques are a global method of structural integrity monitoring that potentially can efficiently detect damage on large structures, including damage that is away from sensor locations, and in the interior of structures. However, a barrier problem in damage detection using vibration measurements is the need to measure the vibration response at a large number of points on the structure. Typically, model reduction or expansion procedures such as Guyan reduction or dynamic expansion are attempted to overcome the problem of insufficient measurements or spatial aliasing. These approaches depend on using information from the healthy model, and thus put error into the reduction used to represent the damaged structure. In this paper, a Frequency Response Function technique is used to detect damage to a fixed-free beam. The technique uses measured frequency response functions from the healthy structure as reference data, and then monitors vibration measurements during the life of the structure to detect damage. In an analytical simulation using a finite-element model of a beam, damage was located using only sparse measurements because the technique uses both rotation and translation measurements from the damaged structure.

Schulz, Mark J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Predictor-Corrector Entry Guidance for Reusable Launch Vehicles

An online entry guidance algorithm has been developed using a predictor-corrector approach. The algorithm is designed for the Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) and is demonstrated by using, the X-33 model. The objective of the design is to handle widely dispersed entry conditions and deliver the vehicle at the Terminal Area Energy Management (TAEM) interface box within an acceptable tolerance and without violating any of the vehicle physical constraints. Combination of several control variables is used in testing the performance and computational requirement of the algorithm. The control variables are the bank angle, angle-of-attack and the time for roll reversal. The bank angle and angle-of-attack profiles are the nominal profiles plus the perturbations in each direction. The initial guess of the bank profile is a 45 degrees bank angle with reversal at 360 seconds from liftoff. A six-element state vector is propagated to the TAEM interface box through the integration of the equations of motion (EOM). Altitude, heading and range errors are computed between the desired and the achieved state at the TAEM interface. These errors are used to correct the initial guess of the control variables. This process is repeated until the errors meet an acceptable level at the TAEM interface. Several numerical optimization methods are used to evaluate the convergent property of the predictor-predictor methodology. Successful results are demonstrated using the X-33 model.

Youssef, Hussein↗
NASA NTRS2010

Mission Simulation of Space Lidar Measurements for Seasonal and Regional CO2 Variations

Results of mission simulation studies are presented for a laser-based atmospheric [82 sounder. The simulations are based on real-time carbon cycle process modeling and data analysis. The mission concept corresponds to the Active Sensing of [82 over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey of Earth Science and Applications from Space. One prerequisite for meaningful quantitative sensor evaluation is realistic CO2 process modeling across a wide range of scales, i.e., does the model have representative spatial and temporal gradients? Examples of model comparison with data will be shown. Another requirement is a relatively complete description of the atmospheric and surface state, which we have obtained from meteorological data assimilation and satellite measurements from MODIS and [ALIPS0. We use radiative transfer model calculations, an instrument model with representative errors ' and a simple retrieval approach to complete the cycle from "nature" run to "pseudo-data" CO2, Several mission and instrument configuration options are examined/ and the sensitivity to key design variables is shown. We use the simulation framework to demonstrate that within reasonable technological assumptions for the system performance, relatively high measurement precision can be obtained, but errors depend strongly on environmental conditions as well as instrument specifications. Examples are also shown of how the resulting pseudo - measurements might be used to address key carbon cycle science questions.

Kawa, Stephan↗
NASA NTRS1988

Ozone and nitrogen dioxide ground based monitoring by zenith sky visible spectrometry in Arctic and Antarctic

Unattended diode array spectrometers have been designed for ground based stratospheric trace species monitoring by zenith sky visible spectrometry. Measurements are performed with a 1.0 nm resolution between 290 nm and 590 nm in order to allow simultaneous evaluations of column densities of ozone, nitrogen dioxide. Field tests have shown that the species can be monitored with a precision of + or - 2 Dobson for the first and + or - 2.10 to the 15th mol/sq cm for the second, although the absolute accuracy of the method is limited by the error of the estimation of the atmospheric optical path of the scattered light. Two identical instruments were set up in January 1988, one in Antarctica at Dumont d'Urville (66 S, 140 E) to be operated all year and another one in the Arctic at ESRANGE at Kiruna (68 N; 22 E) which will operate to the final warming of spring 1988. The data are processed in real time at both stations. O3 and NO2 columns are transmitted together with surface and stratospheric temperature and winds. They are also recorded for further treatment and search for OClO and BrO. Only one month of data from Antarctica is available at the moment. Obtained during polar summer, they cannot show more than stable columns of O3 and NO2 and for the last species, the buildup of its diurnal variation.

Pommereau, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Infrared spectroscopic measurements of the vertical column abundance of sulfur hexafluoride, SF6, from the ground

The solar observations involved in the present monitoring evaluation were made at two facilities, using Fourier-transform spectrometers achieving spectral resolutions of 0.005/cm and signal-to-rms noise ratios for individual scans from near 500 to near 1000. The monthly mean total vertical-column abundances of SF6 above both facilities are reported for time intervals from June 1986 to June 1990 and from March 1981 to June 1990. It is found that the vertical-column abundances increased at mean rates of 6.9 +/- 2.8 pct above one station and 6.6 +/- 7.2 pct above the other. Since all the results were retrieved using the same spectroscopic parameters and similar nonlinear least-squares curve-fitting algorithms validated through intercomparison exercises, the large error reported for the second station is attributed to a larger measurement uncertainty due to stronger H2O and C2O interferences, and a greater variability during each month.

Zander, R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Efficient Low Dissipative High Order Schemes for Multiscale MHD Flows: Minimization of Delta * B Numerical Error - II

The generalization of a class of low-dissipative high order filter finite difference schemes for long time wave propagation of shock/turbulence/combustion compressible viscous gas dynamic flows to compressible MHD equations for structured curvilinear grids has been developed. The new scheme consists of a divergence free preserving high order spatial base scheme with a filter approach which can be divergence-free preserving depending on the type of filter operator being used, the method of applying the filter step, and the type of flow problem to be considered. Several variants of the filter approach that cater to different flow types are proposed. These filters provide a natural and efficient way for the minimization of the divergence of the magnetic field (Delta * B) numerical error in the sense that no standard divergence cleaning is required. Performance evaluation of these variants, and the key role that the proper treatment of their corresponding numerical boundary conditions can play will be illustrated. Many levels of grid refinement and detailed comparison with several commonly used compressible MHD shock-capturing schemes will be sought. For certain MHD 2-D test problems, divergence free preservation of the magnetic fields of these filter schemes has been achieved.

Sjoegreen, Bjoern↗
NASA NTRS2010

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger is shown.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

French, V.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Experimental investigation of adaptive control of a parallel manipulator

The implementation of a joint-space adaptive control scheme used to control non-compliant motion of a Stewart Platform-based Manipulator (SPBM) is presented. The SPBM is used in a facility called the Hardware Real-Time Emulator (HRTE) developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to emulate space operations. The SPBM is comprised of two platforms and six linear actuators driven by DC motors, and possesses six degrees of freedom. The report briefly reviews the development of the adaptive control scheme which is composed of proportional-derivative (PD) controllers whose gains are adjusted by an adaptation law driven by the errors between the desired and actual trajectories of the SPBM actuator lengths. The derivation of the adaptation law is based on the concept of model reference adaptive control (MRAC) and Lyapunov direct method under the assumption that SPBM motion is slow as compared to the controller adaptation rate. An experimental study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the adaptive control scheme implemented to control the SPBM to track a vertical and circular paths under step changes in payload. Experimental results show that the adaptive control scheme provides superior tracking capability as compared to fixed-gain controllers.

Nguyen, Charles C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Soil Surface Runoff Scheme for Improving Land-Hydrology and Surface Fluxes in Simple SiB (SSiB)

Evapotranspiration on land is hard to measure and difficult to simulate. On the scale of a GCM grid, there is large subgrid-scale variability of orography, soil moisture, and vegetation. Our hope is to be able to tune the biophysical constants of vegetation and soil parameters to get the most realistic space-averaged diurnal cycle of evaporation and its climatology. Field experiments such as First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE), Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS), and LBA help a great deal in improving our evapotranspiration schemes. However, these improvements have to be matched with, and coupled to, consistent improvement in land-hydrology; otherwise, the runoff problems will intrinsically reflect on the soil moisture and evapotranspiration errors. Indeed, a realistic runoff simulation also ensures a reasonable evapotranspiration simulation provided the precipitation forcing is reliable. We have been working on all of the above problems to improve the simulated hydrologic cycle. Through our participation in the evaluation and intercomparison of land-models under the behest of Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP), we identified a few problems with Simple SiB (SSIB; Xue et al., 1991) hydrology in regions of significant snowmelt. Sud and Mocko (1999) show that inclusion of a separate snowpack model, with its own energy budget and fluxes with the atmosphere aloft and soil beneath, helps to ameliorate some of the deficiencies of delayed snowmelt and excessive spring season runoff. Thus, much more realistic timing of melt water generation was simulated with the new snowpack model in the subsequent GSWP re-evaluations using 2 years of ISLSCP Initiative I forcing data for 1987 and 1988. However, we noted an overcorrection of the low meltwater infiltration of SSiB. While the improvement in snowmelt timing was found everywhere, the snowmelt infiltration has became excessive in some regions, e.g., Lena river basin. This leads to much reduced runoff in many basins as compared to observations. We believe this is a consequence of neglect of the influence of subgrid-scale variations in orography that affects the production of surface runoff.

Sud, Y. C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Influence of Combined Whole-Body Vibration Plus G-Loading on Visual Performance

Recent engineering analyses of the integrated Ares-Orion stack show that vibration levels for Orion crews have the potential to be much higher than those experienced in Gemini, Apollo, and Shuttle vehicles. Of particular concern to the Constellation Program (CxP) is the 12 Hz thrust oscillation (TO) that the Ares-I rocket develops during the final ~20 seconds preceding first-stage separation, at maximum G-loading. While the structural-dynamic mitigations being considered can assure that vibration due to TO is reduced to below the CxP crew health limit, it remains to be determined how far below this limit vibration must be reduced to enable effective crew performance during launch. Moreover, this "performance" vibration limit will inform the operations concepts (and crew-system interface designs) for this critical phase of flight. While Gemini and Apollo studies provide preliminary guidance, the data supporting the historical limits were obtained using less advanced interface technologies and very different operations concepts. In this study, supported by the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Human Research Program, we investigated display readability-a fundamental prerequisite for any interaction with electronic crew-vehicle interfaces-while observers were subjected to 12 Hz vibration superimposed on the 3.8 G loading expected for the TO period of ascent. Two age-matched groups of participants (16 general population and 13 Crew Office) performed a numerical display reading task while undergoing sustained 3.8 G loading and whole-body vibration at 0, 0.15, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 g in the eyeballs in/out (x-axis) direction. The time-constrained reading task used an Orion-like display with 10- and 14-pt non-proportional sans-serif fonts, and was designed to emulate the visual acquisition and processing essential for crew system monitoring. Compared to the no-vibration baseline, we found no significant effect of vibration at 0.15 and 0.3 g on task error rates (ER) or response times (RT). Significant degradations in both ER and RT, however, were observed at 0.5 and 0.7 g for 10-pt, and at 0.7 g for 14-pt font displays. These objective performance measures were mirrored by participants' subjective ratings. Interestingly, we found that the impact of vibration on ER increased with distance from the center of the display, but only for vertical displacements. Furthermore, no significant ER or RT aftereffects were detected immediately following vibration, regardless of amplitude. Lastly, given that our reading task required no specialized spaceflight expertise, our finding that effects were not statistically distinct between our two groups is not surprising. The results from this empirical study provide initial guidance for evaluating the display readability trade-space between text-font size and vibration amplitude. However, the outcome of this work should be considered preliminary in nature for a number of reasons: 1. The single 12 Hz x-axis vibration employed was based on earlier load-cycle models of the induced TO environment at the end of Ares-I first stage flight. Recent analyses of TO mitigation designs suggest that significant concurrent off-axis vibration may also occur. 2. The shirtsleeve environment in which we tested fails to capture the full kinematic and dynamic complexity of the physical interface between crewmember and the still-to-bematured helmet-suit-seat designs, and the impact these will have for vibration transmission and consequent performance. 3. By examining performance in this reading and number processing task, we are only assessing readability, a first and necessary step that in itself does not directly address the performance of more sophisticated operational tasks such as vehicle-health monitoring or manual control of the vehicle.

readability↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗