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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Eastern Interconnection Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Study Report

To meet the government mandates such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), conventional synchronous generators with rotating mass are being displaced by inverter-based resources (IBRs), leading to high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). As a result, the inherent properties and characteristics of the transformed generation mix may significantly impact the grid behaviour, and it is of paramount significance that the impact and the consequences of the resource mix change is thoroughly understood to adopt measures to maintain reliable grid operations. Of great concern is the inter-area low-frequency oscillation, which usually propagates through a large region and has a system-wide impact. Such oscillations may lead to unnecessary or inadvertent tripping of generators, that may be simply reacting to the oscillation originating from geographically remote sites. Such tripping of generators can lead to cascading outages, system split and load loss events. Over the years, several system-wide oscillation events have been observed across all three North American interconnections. This project titled Wide-area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study, sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE), aims to conduct the required research to capture and investigate the potential changes in wide-area oscillatory performance of the system as a result of resource mix transition. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted this research and technical staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) served as advisors to the project. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the power system wide-area oscillatory behaviours, as a result of the generation-mix changes due to the increased penetration of RES in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI). The analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the EI system. This research conducted in this project evaluates the wide-area oscillatory behaviour of the EI, using a model-based approach for potential future resource mixes, and the measurement-based analysis with 21-month phasor measurement unit (PMU) time series. The oscillation modes in EI system along with the impact of the changes of the generation mix on the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of the oscillations have been studied.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evidence for quasi-periodic components in Dobson network total ozone records

Power spectrum analysis has been applied to the total ozone time series at each of a sample of Dobson stations with records of more than 15 years in the interval 1957 to 1981. The distributions of strongly periodic or quasiperiodic signals in these spectral estimates, for three spectral estimators and two levels of confidence, show distinct features. These appear at the previously known or suspected periods of 3.5-4.0 years, 27 months, and 21 months as well as the previously unreported period of 11.5 months. Possible geophysical implications are discussed.

Guthrie, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Polar motion and length of day determination from satellite laser ranging

The kinematic and dynamic models used in obtaining the GSFC MERIT solution (using data from satellite laser ranging) for the x and y coordinates of the earth's rotation pole and the excess length-of-day (LOD) are discussed together with the analysis technique. Comparisons of the GSFC polar motion time series with the time series from the Bureau International de l'Heure shows small but consistent systematic differences (4.6 milliarcsec rms about a mean offset of 1 milliarcsec in the x component, and 2.9 milliarcsec rms about a 21 milliarcsec offset in the y component). A comparison with the data of the National Geodetic Survey's IRIS network shows departures of 2.5 milliarcsec rms about the mean for the x component and 2.0 milliarcsec rms for the y component. The precision of the GSFC earth orientation is estimated to be better than 1 milliarcsec for polar motion and 0.1 msec for excess LOD.

Smith, David E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

MARIKA - A model revision system using qualitative analysis of simulations

This paper describes portions of a novel system called MARIKA (Model Analysis and Revision of Implicit Key Assumptions) to automatically revise a model of the normal human orientation system. The revision is based on analysis of discrepancies between experimental results and computer simulations. The discrepancies are calculated from qualitative analysis of quantitative simulations. The experimental and simulated time series are first discretized in time segments. Each segment is then approximated by linear combinations of simple shapes. The domain theory and knowledge are represented as a constraint network. Incompatibilities detected during constraint propagation within the network yield both parameter and structural model alterations. Interestingly, MARIKA diagnosed a data set from the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Vestibular Laboratory as abnormal though the data was tagged as normal. Published results from other laboratories confirmed the finding. These encouraging results could lead to a useful clinical vestibular tool and to a scientific discovery system for space vestibular adaptation.

Groleau, Nicolas↗
NASA NTRS1994

Gender- and age-related differences in heart rate dynamics: are women more complex than men?

OBJECTIVES. This study aimed to quantify the complex dynamics of beat-to-beat sinus rhythm heart rate fluctuations and to determine their differences as a function of gender and age. BACKGROUND. Recently, measures of heart rate variability and the nonlinear "complexity" of heart rate dynamics have been used as indicators of cardiovascular health. Because women have lower cardiovascular risk and greater longevity than men, we postulated that there are important gender-related differences in beat-to-beat heart rate dynamics. METHODS. We analyzed heart rate dynamics during 8-min segments of continuous electrocardiographic recording in healthy young (20 to 39 years old), middle-aged (40 to 64 years old) and elderly (65 to 90 years old) men (n = 40) and women (n = 27) while they performed spontaneous and metronomic (15 breaths/min) breathing. Relatively high (0.15 to 0.40 Hz) and low (0.01 to 0.15 Hz) frequency components of heart rate variability were computed using spectral analysis. The overall "complexity" of each heart rate time series was quantified by its approximate entropy, a measure of regularity derived from nonlinear dynamics ("chaos" theory). RESULTS. Mean heart rate did not differ between the age groups or genders. High frequency heart rate power and the high/low frequency power ratio decreased with age in both men and women (p < 0.05). The high/low frequency power ratio during spontaneous and metronomic breathing was greater in women than men (p < 0.05). Heart rate approximate entropy decreased with age and was higher in women than men (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS. High frequency heart rate spectral power (associated with parasympathetic activity) and the overall complexity of heart rate dynamics are higher in women than men. These complementary findings indicate the need to account for gender-as well as age-related differences in heart rate dynamics. Whether these gender differences are related to lower cardiovascular disease risk and greater longevity in women requires further study.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2007

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux as Seen from Passive Microwave Satellite Algorithms

Ocean surface turbulent fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Deriving physically-based latent and sensible heat fluxes from satellite is dependent on inferences of near surface moisture and temperature from coarser layer retrievals or satellite radiances. Uncertainties in these "retrievals" propagate through bulk aerodynamic algorithms, interacting as well with error properties of surface wind speed, also provided by satellite. By systematically evaluating an array of passive microwave satellite algorithms, the SEAFLUX project is providing improved understanding of these errors and finding pathways for reducing or eliminating them. In this study we focus on evaluating the interannual variability of several passive microwave-based estimates of latent heat flux starting from monthly mean gridded data. The algorithms considered range from those based essentially on SSM/I (e.g. HOAPS) to newer approaches that consider additional moisture information from SSM/T-2 or AMSU-B and lower tropospheric temperature data from AMSU-A. On interannual scales, variability arising from ENSO events and time-lagged responses of ocean turbulent and radiative fluxes in other ocean basins (as well as the extratropical Pacific) is widely recognized, but still not well quantified. Locally, these flux anomalies are of order 10-20 W/sq m and present a relevant "target" with which to verify algorithm performance in a climate context. On decadal time scales there is some evidence from reanalyses and remotely-sensed fluxes alike that tropical ocean-averaged latent heat fluxes have increased 5-10 W/sq m since the early 1990s. However, significant uncertainty surrounds this estimate. Our work addresses the origin of these uncertainties and provides statistics on time series of tropical ocean averages, regional space / time correlation analysis, and separation of contributions by variations in wind and near surface humidity deficit. Comparison to variations in reanalysis data sets is also provided for reference.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Examining Volcanic Terrains Using In Situ Geochemical Technologies; Implications for Planetary Field Geology

Regardless of the target destination for the next manned planetary mission, the crew will require technology with which to select samples for return to Earth. The six Apollo lunar surface missions crews had only the tools to enable them to physically pick samples up off the surface or from a boulder and store those samples for return to the Lunar Module and eventually to Earth. Sample characterization was dependent upon visual inspection and relied upon their extensive geology training. In the four decades since Apollo however, great advances have been made in traditionally laboratory-based instrument technologies that enable miniaturization to a field-portable configuration. The implications of these advancements extend past traditional terrestrial field geology and into planetary surface exploration. With tools that will allow for real-time geochemical analysis, an astronaut can better develop a series of working hypotheses that are testable during surface science operations. One such technology is x-ray fluorescence (XRF). Traditionally used in a laboratory configuration, these instruments have now been developed and marketed commercially in a field-portable mode. We examine this technology in the context of geologic sample analysis and discuss current and future plans for instrument deployment. We also discuss the development of the Chromatic Mineral Identification and Surface Texture (CMIST) instrument at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Testing is taking place in conjunction with the RIS4E (Remote, In Situ, and Synchrotron Studies for Science and Exploration) SSERVI (Solar System Exploration and Research Virtual Institute) team activities, including field testing at Kilauea Volcano, HI..

Young, K. E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Inter-comparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty. The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four datasets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics. Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia).Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05∗Corresponding (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.

Aggregation uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2011

30 WS North Base Wind Study

The 30 Weather Squadron (30 WS) is concerned about strong winds observed at their northern towers without advance warning. They state that terrain influences along the extreme northern fringes of Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) make it difficult for forecasters to issue timely and accurate high wind warnings for northeasterly wind events. These events tend to occur during the winter or early spring when they are under the influence of the Great Basin high pressure weather regime. The Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) have seen these rapid wind increases in the current northern Towers 60, 70 and 71 in excess of their 35 kt operational warning threshold. For this task, the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze data from days when these towers reported winds in excess of 35 kt and determine if there were any precursors in the observations that would allow the LWOs to better forecast and warn their operational customers for these wind events. The 30 WS provided wind tower data for the cool season (October - March) from the period January 2004-March 20 IO. The AMU decoded and evaluated the wind tower data for 66 days identified by the 30 WS as having high-wind events. Out of the 66 event days, only 30 had wind speed observations of > or =35 kt from at least one of the three northern towers. The AMU analyzed surface and upper air charts to determine the synoptic conditions for each event day along with tower peak wind speed and direction time series and wind rose charts for all 30 event days. The analysis revealed a trend on all event days in which the tower winds shifted to the northeast for a period of time before the first recorded > or =35 kt wind speed. The time periods for the 30 event days ranged from 20 minutes to several hours, with a median value of 110 minutes. This trend, if monitored, could give the 30 WS forecasters a precursor to assist in issuing an operational warning before a high wind event occurs. The AMU recommends developing a high-wind alert capability for VAFB using a local mesoscale model to forecast these wind events. The model should incorporate all of the VAFB local data sets and have a forecast capability of between 2 to 24 hours. Such a model would allow the meteorologists at VAFB to alert the operational customers of high wind events in a timely manner so protective action could be taken.

Wheeler, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2022

A high-resolution single-molecule sequencing-based Arabidopsis transcriptome using novel methods of Iso-seq analysis

Accurate and comprehensive annotation of transcript sequences is essential for transcript quantification and differential gene and transcript expression analysis. Single-molecule long-read sequencing technologies provide improved integrity of transcript structures including alternative splicing, and transcription start and polyadenylation sites. However, accuracy is significantly affected by sequencing errors, mRNA degradation, or incomplete cDNA synthesis. We present a new and comprehensive Arabidopsis thaliana Reference Transcript Dataset 3 (AtRTD3). AtRTD3 contains over 169,000 transcripts—twice that of the best current Arabidopsis transcriptome and including over 1500 novel genes. Seventy-eight percent of transcripts are from Iso-seq with accurately defined splice junctions and transcription start and end sites. We develop novel methods to determine splice junctions and transcription start and end sites accurately. Mismatch profiles around splice junctions provide a powerful feature to distinguish correct splice junctions and remove false splice junctions. Stratified approaches identify high-confidence transcription start and end sites and remove fragmentary transcripts due to degradation. AtRTD3 is a major improvement over existing transcriptomes as demonstrated by analysis of an Arabidopsis cold response RNA-seq time-series. AtRTD3 provides higher resolution of transcript expression profiling and identifies cold-induced differential transcription start and polyadenylation site usage. AtRTD3 is the most comprehensive Arabidopsis transcriptome currently. It improves the precision of differential gene and transcript expression, differential alternative splicing, and transcription start/end site usage analysis from RNA-seq data. The novel methods for identifying accurate splice junctions and transcription start/end sites are widely applicable and will improve single-molecule sequencing analysis from any species.

transcription start and end sites↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mixed Delay/Nondelay Embeddings Based Neuromorphic Computing with Patterned Nanomagnet Arrays

Patterned nanomagnet arrays (PNAs) have been shown to exhibit a strong geometrically frustrated dipole interaction. Some PNAs have also shown emergent domain wall dynamics. Previous works have demonstrated methods to physically probe these magnetization dynamics of PNAs to realize neuromorphic reservoir systems that exhibit chaotic dynamical behavior and high-dimensional nonlinearity. These PNA reservoir systems from prior works leverage echo state properties and linear/nonlinear short-term memory of component reservoir nodes to map and preserve the dynamical information of the input time-series data into nondelay spatial embeddings. Such mappings enable these PNA reservoir systems to imitate and predict/forecast the input time series data. However, these prior PNA reservoir systems are based solely on the nondelay spatial embeddings obtained at component reservoir nodes. As a result, they require a massive number of component reservoir nodes, or a very large spatial embedding (i.e., high-dimensional spatial embedding) per reservoir node, or both, to achieve acceptable imitation and prediction accuracy. These requirements reduce the practical feasibility of such PNA reservoir systems. To address this shortcoming, we present a mixed delay/nondelay embeddings-based PNA reservoir system. Our system uses a single PNA reservoir node with the ability to obtain a mixture of delay/nondelay embeddings of the dynamical information of the time-series data applied at the input of a single PNA reservoir node. Our analysis shows that when these mixed delay/nondelay embeddings are used to train a perceptron at the output layer, our reservoir system outperforms existing PNA-based reservoir systems for the imitation of NARMA 2, NARMA 5, NARMA 7, and NARMA 10 time series data, and for the short-term and long-term prediction of the Mackey Glass time series data.

Ti, Changpeng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerated Data Analytics for Power-System Time-Series (ADAPT) [Final Project Report]

Over the past decade, electric utilities have made significant progress in deploying networks of phasor measurement units (PMUs). The high-speed measurements provided by PMUs are valuable for offline analysis, but the sheer volume of data presents a challenge for utilities. The Accelerated Data Analytics for Power-System Time-Series (ADAPT) project was created to address this challenge by developing SciSync, an open-source software tool that enables utilities to rapidly read, process, analyze, and review grid measurements. SciSync was designed to provide the capabilities of Archive Walker, a research tool developed by PNNL, along with the reliability and performance of commercial-grade software.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1998

Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar time series obtained from conventional observations of temperature.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Community-wide Validation of Geospace Model Ground Magnetic Field Perturbation Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

In this paper we continue the community-wide rigorous modern space weather model validation efforts carried out within GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. In this particular effort, in coordination among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), modelers, and science community, we focus on studying the models' capability to reproduce observed ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are closely related to geomagnetically induced current phenomenon. One of the primary motivations of the work is to support NOAA SWPC in their selection of the next numerical model that will be transitioned into operations. Six geomagnetic events and 12 geomagnetic observatories were selected for validation.While modeled and observed magnetic field time series are available for all 12 stations, the primary metrics analysis is based on six stations that were selected to represent the high-latitude and mid-latitude locations. Events-based analysis and the corresponding contingency tables were built for each event and each station. The elements in the contingency table were then used to calculate Probability of Detection (POD), Probability of False Detection (POFD) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for rigorous quantification of the models' performance. In this paper the summary results of the metrics analyses are reported in terms of POD, POFD and HSS. More detailed analyses can be carried out using the event by event contingency tables provided as an online appendix. An online interface built at CCMC and described in the supporting information is also available for more detailed time series analyses.

MAGNETIC↗