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At least 613 records · Page 34

A harmonized protocol to assess the single-cell performance of proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers

The harmonization of testing protocols for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers is essential for ensuring accurate and reliable performance assessments and accelerating the development of hydrogen production technologies. This protocol provides a structured approach to PEM electrolyzer setup and testing, incorporating key considerations for test station design and single-cell characterization techniques. Polarization curves and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) are detailed, along with best practices from academic and industry research groups to enhance data accuracy and comparability. By addressing material variability and harmonizing testing methodologies, this framework enables more precise evaluations of membrane electrode assemblies and electrolyzer components. Harmonized protocols not only streamline development efforts but also foster collaboration across institutions, ultimately supporting the commercialization of hydrogen solutions through improved stack efficiency and durability.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Scalable and Quench-Free Processing of Metal Halide Perovskites in Ambient Conditions

With the rise of global warming and the growing energy crisis, scientists have pivoted from typical resources to look for new materials and technologies. Perovskite materials hold the potential for making high-efficiency, low-cost solar cells through solution processing of Earth-abundant materials; however, scalability, stability, and durability remain key challenges. In order to transition from small-scale processing in inert environments to higher throughput processing in ambient conditions, the fundamentals of perovskite crystallization must be understood. Classical nucleation theory, the LaMer relation, and nonclassical crystallization considerations are discussed to provide a mechanism by which a gellan gum (GG) additive—a nontoxic polymeric saccharide—has enabled researchers to produce quality halide perovskite thin-film blade coated in ambient conditions without a quench step. Furthermore, we report on the improved stability and durability properties inherent to these films, which feature improved morphologies and optoelectronic properties compared to films spin-coated in a glovebox with antisolvent. We tune the amount of GG in the perovskite precursor and study the interplay between GG concentration and processability, morphological control, and increased stability under humidity, heat, and mechanical testing. The simplicity of this approach and insensitivity to environmental conditions enable a wide process window for the production of low-defect, mechanically robust, and operationally stable perovskites with fracture energies among the highest obtained for perovskites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data-Driven Reduced-Order Modeling of Convective Heat Transfer in Porous Media

This work presents a data-driven Reduced-Order Model (ROM) for parametric convective heat transfer problems in porous media. The intrusive Proper Orthogonal Decomposition aided Reduced-Basis (POD-RB) technique is employed to reduce the porous medium formulation of the incompressible Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations coupled with heat transfer. Instead of resolving the exact flow configuration with high fidelity, the porous medium formulation solves a homogenized flow in which the fluid-structure interactions are captured via volumetric flow resistances with nonlinear, semi-empirical friction correlations. A supremizer approach is implemented for the stabilization of the reduced fluid dynamics equations. The reduced nonlinear flow resistances are treated using the Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM), while the turbulent eddy viscosity and diffusivity are approximated by adopting a Radial Basis Function (RBF) interpolation-based approach. The proposed method is tested using a 2D numerical model of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR), which involves the simulation of both clean and porous medium regions in the same domain. For the steady-state example, five model parameters are considered to be uncertain: the magnitude of the pumping force, the external coolant temperature, the heat transfer coefficient, the thermal expansion coefficient, and the Prandtl number. For transient scenarios, on the other hand, the coastdown-time of the pump is the only uncertain parameter. The results indicate that the POD-RB-ROMs are suitable for the reduction of similar problems. The relative L2 errors are below 3.34% for every field of interest for all cases analyzed, while the speedup factors vary between 54 (transient) and 40,000 (steady-state).

German, Péter (ORCID:0000000307285283)↗

Revisiting the guidelines for ending isolation for COVID-19 patients

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, two mainstream guidelines for defining when to end the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals have been in use: the one-size-fits-all approach (i.e. patients are isolated for a fixed number of days) and the personalized approach (i.e. based on repeated testing of isolated patients). We use a mathematical framework to model within-host viral dynamics and test different criteria for ending isolation. By considering a fixed time of 10 days since symptom onset as the criterion for ending isolation, we estimated that the risk of releasing an individual who is still infectious is low (0–6.6%). However, this policy entails lengthy unnecessary isolations (4.8–8.3 days). In contrast, by using a personalized strategy, similar low risks can be reached with shorter prolonged isolations. The obtained findings provide a scientific rationale for policies on ending the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals.

Jeong, Yong Dam↗

High-Frequency, Multiclass Nonintrusive Load Monitoring for Grid-Interactive Residential Buildings

Smart buildings with net-load metering and control capabilities can provide valuable flexibility to grid operators. This article develops a novel approach for high-frequency, multiclass nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) that enables effective net-load monitoring capabilities with minimal additional equipment and cost. Relative to existing NILM work, the proposed solution operates at a faster timescale, providing accurate multiclass state predictions for each 60-Hz ac cycle without relying on event-detection techniques. The approach is validated using a test bed with residential appliances and shown to have high accuracy, good generalization properties, and sufficient response time to support building grid-interactive control at fast timescales relevant to the provision of grid frequency support services.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

HEAT TRANSFER ASPECTS OF TWO PISTON SPLAT QUENCHING

This thesis investigates the heat transfer aspects of the two-piston splat quench system by modifying surface roughness and by using copper and stainless steel platens. In additive manufacturing, specifically selective laser melting (SLM), metal is subjected to a very rapid heating and cooling that produces cooling rates in the range from 105-106 °C/s. This rapid solidification produces microstructures that deviate far from equilibrium. Splat quenching is an experimental method that produces rapidly solidified structures under cooling rates that are comparable to those found in additive manufacturing. The splat quenching approach allows for more efficient testing of the rapid solidification behavior of a wide variety of alloys. In this thesis, two platen characteristics, surface roughness and material thermal conductivity, were examined to determine their role in controlling the heat transfer and the subsequent cooling rate during splat quenching of austenitic stainless steel 316L. To that objective, 5 surface finishes were produced using metallographic techniques, from 7046-203 Å Rms. Copper and 316L stainless steel platen material were used to reach different levels of thermal conductance. The combination of these 2 variables created 10 scenarios, which were examined using, backscatter imaging, secondary imaging, and electron back scatter diffraction. Cooling rates were estimated using cell sizing obtained through electrolytic etching and secondary imaging. This thesis determined that both surface modification and changes in material type had a statistically significant impact on the cell sizes observed. Where material type far outweighed surface roughness in its effect on cell size.

Roze, Jonathan↗

Performance Evaluation of a Single-Phase Grid-Forming Inverter Through Hardware Experiments

This study conducts hardware experiments to assess the performance of a commercial single-phase grid-forming (GFM) inverter using a purely hardware-based approach. We adhere to a testing protocol for the GFM inverter and enhance it by exploring the transient performance of GFM inverters across various grid dynamic events. Quantifiable performance metrics are established for each testing scenario to gain insights into the performance of the single-phase GFM inverters. Based on the comprehensive tests, the following observations are summarized: 1) The performance of the single-phase GFM inverter is satisfactory, and it is capable of being the islanding master for residence homes when the main grid is gone. 2) For frequency response, the inverter is able to stay connected but cannot inject the needed active power to support the grid. This may be improved by the manufacturer by using droop control. 3) The GFM inverter exhibits harmful transients in voltage and frequency during islanding operation, which can be enhanced by maintaining the same operating points before and after the breaker is open.

dynamic performance↗

Multi-physics Modeling of Radiative Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow for the Reactor Cavity Cooling System

High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are notable for their high thermal efficiency and potential for combined heat and power applications. These reactors are particularly appealing due to their advanced passive safety features. HTGRs utilize passive safety systems that function without requiring active components like pumps or compressors during emergencies. These reactor designs depend on a Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) to manage decay heat removal from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during accident conditions. The RCCS consists of vertical rectangular channels known as "risers" or riser ducts positioned around the RPV. These risers receive heat from the RPV through both convective and radiative heat transfer mechanisms. Understanding the interplay of multiple physical phenomena, such as fluid dynamics, heat transfer, and neutron interactions, is essential for the effective design and operation of nuclear reactors, particularly for systems like the RCCS. Multi-physics simulations provide a comprehensive approach to studying these interactions, offering detailed insights and enhancing accuracy. They are especially important in RCCS designs, where the interaction between radiative and convective heat transfer can significantly impact system performance. By leveraging multi-physics simulations, complex reactor behaviors can be modeled without compromising the fidelity of the underlying physical processes. This work aims to establish a robust methodology for coupling multiple physical processes in an air-cooled RCCS. By focusing on validating this multi-physics approach, the study involves designing test cases that simulate various conditions to verify the numerical models employed. The outcomes of this research will provide critical insights for accurately modeling and optimizing complex nuclear systems like the RCCS.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An initial framework for the rapid qualification of long-term creep rupture strength via microstructural modeling

This report describes the development and testing of a new method for extrapolating short-term creep rupture test data to predict long-term rupture strength. The goal of this work is to reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service by reducing the lead time required for dedicated, long-term material testing to establish key long-term material properties. The new approach described here uses a physics-based model to predict the long-term creep rupture strength of 316H stainless steel using only short-term test data. The key idea is to use Bayesian inference to find the statistical distribution of the model parameters that best explain the short-term rupture data. Because the model is physics-based these parameters are all microstructural quantities that can be measured through detailed material characterization experiments. The Bayesian prior distributions provide a means for incorporating this characterization data into the final model to improve the accuracy of the long-term model predictions. However, where such data is not available the process still produces an accurate model based on an uniformed prior. Our hypothesis is that this approach more accurately extrapolates the short-term test data when compared to current, empirical methods. The report proves this hypothesis using actual long-term rupture data available for 316H, including tests with rupture times greater than 200,000 hours. The general approach developed here could be applied to other materials and other time-dependent material properties. Applying this new technique to develop long-term qualified material properties, potentially in conjunction with other accelerated qualification approaches like staggered qualification test programs, could greatly reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Universal Solvent Viscosity Reduction via Hydrogen Bonding Disruptors

Liquid Ion Solutions LLC (DBA RoCo Global) in partnership with Carnegie Mellon University and Carbon Capture Scientific LLC, has performed lab-scale development and evaluation of novel additives that lower the viscosity of water-lean amine solvents for post-combustion carbon dioxide capture. This project focuses on developing additives that minimize the formation of long-range electrostatic and hydrogen bonding (HB) networks, decreasing the solvent viscosity, improving diffusion, and improving the process economics. The project objectives included: 1) performing computer simulation to understand the molecular interactions of the additive molecules in water-lean CO 2 capture solvents, 2) design and synthesis of HB disruptors additives, 3) performance testing with additive molecules on model amine solvents, and 4) demonstration of the effectiveness of the optimized additives in the presence of synthetic flue gas. To meet the abovementioned objectives, the project team utilized a holistic approach that combines molecular simulation, experimental testing, and economic analysis studies. The project team developed ab initio molecular model and then perform computer simulation to develop relationship between hydrogen bonding, viscosity, and performed quantitative analysis of additive on the viscosity of the solvent. The team completed computational comparative study on a range of organic functional groups such as ethers, esters, cyclic carbonates, alkanes, and ammonium salts for their effect on viscosity gaining key insights into molecular interactions and the impact of various functional groups and molecular shapes on viscosity. Assisted with molecular simulation insights, the project team conducted additive synthesis and testing, including a proof-of-concept study, additive screening, optimization, and synthetic flue gas testing. The experimental proof-of-concept study proved that the hydrogen bonding acceptors result in significant decrease of viscosities. Detailed additive screening (exploring various functionalities and molecular structures) has been performed. Several promising additives showed excellent reduction in viscosity (30-41%) at 5% additive loading, and over 50% viscosity reduction at 10% additive loading for the model solvents. The team also performed complex screening studies on additive loadings and mixing effect among additives using the design of experiments. Based on multiple screening experiments, one additive-solvent candidate was down-selected for synthetic flue gas testing. A 100-hour continuous absorption/desorption study was conducted under simulated flue gas using a lab-scale continuous capture and separation system. No degradation (for both solvent and additive) was observed based on the GC results of the solvent samples collected from the continuous study. The team conducted preliminary engineering analyses and cost-benefit analyses to quantify the potential economic benefits of the additive approach for solvent viscosity reduction. Based on the experimental data, CO 2 capture cost savings from the capital and operating cost savings are estimated at $\$$4.7/tonne and $\$$0.3/tonne CO 2 captured, respectively. Considering the additive cost, the net benefit is estimated to be between $\$$4.32~$\$$4.86/tonne CO 2 captured.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

M3SF-24LL010302052-Comprehensive Analysis of Radionuclide Interaction with Hydrothermally Altered Repository Materials

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010302052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline Work Package Number SF-24LL01030205. The research is focused on actinide and radionuclide sequestration in hydrothermally altered repository materials. In FY24, we completed a rigorous analysis of Se sorption to iron oxide phases using our L-SCIE sorption database. This effort explicitly accounts for surface titration behavior of oxide surfaces that was the subject of a recently published manuscript (Han et al., 2023). With this in mind, our Se sorption analysis now yields a more robust workflow for developing self-consistent surface complexation modeling approaches that can be adapted to specific SCM conceptual and numerical approaches (i.e. non-electrostatic, diffuse layer, triple layer models). In late FY24, we plan to publish the results of our comprehensive surface complexation modeling of Se(IV) and Se(VI) sorption to iron oxide mineral phases and provide a path forward to developing robust radionuclide sorption models for use in performance assessment. In FY24, we also submitted a manuscript summarizing our approach to integrating radionuclide sorption and coprecipitation phenomena and evaluation of radionuclide partitioning values across a range of radionuclides relevant to performance assessment. We demonstrated our approach in detail using Se sorption and coprecipitation with iron oxide minerals as a test case. This manuscript was recently accepted for publication in Applied Geochemistry (Balboni et al., Accepted). We also continued experiments to identify radionuclide interaction with hydrothermally altered crystalline repository and backfill materials. Recent research performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) has provided key insights regarding the hydrothermal alteration behavior of bentonite backfill in the presence of repository materials (steel, concrete, etc.). We are now examining how mineral alteration affects retardation behavior of a suite of radionuclides of interest to repository performance assessment. These experiments also allow us to test the predictive ability of our component additivity approach to surface complexation and ion exchange. Our guiding hypothesis is that a robust surface complexation/ion exchange model and associated database, developed using our L-SCIE approach, can effectively predict changes in radionuclide sorption behavior resulting from the hydrothermal alteration of mineralogy in a repository near field. A short update of results to date is presented below.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Improving robustness for model discerning synthesis process of uranium oxide with unsupervised domain adaptation

The quantitative characterization of surface structures captured in scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images has proven to be effective for discerning provenance of an unknown nuclear material. Recently, many works have taken advantage of the powerful performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide faster and more consistent characterization of surface structures. However, one inherent limitation of CNNs is their degradation in performance when encountering discrepancy between training and test datasets, which limits their use widely. The common discrepancy in an SEM image dataset occurs at low-level image information due to user-bias in selecting acquisition parameters and microscopes from different manufacturers. Therefore, in this study, we present a domain adaptation framework to improve robustness of CNNs against the discrepancy in low-level image information. Furthermore, our proposed approach makes use of only unlabeled test samples to adapt a pretrained model, which is more suitable for nuclear forensics application for which obtaining both training and test datasets simultaneously is a challenge due to data sensitivity. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed approach effectively improves the performance of a model by at least 18% when encountering domain discrepancy, and can be deployed in many CNN architectures.

scanning electron microscopy↗

Scale-dependent enhancement of productivity and stability in xenic Nannochloropsis cultures

Although bacterial amendments can enhance algal productivity and stability, the development of algal-bacteria consortia for commercial-scale utilization is limited. Here, for this work, we used an established high-throughput approach to generate algal-bacteria consortia, and tested consortia performance at spatial scales from microplates to 320 L raceway ponds. We used both lab and field-reared strains of Nannochloropsis oceanica to build consortia. In some experiments, we imposed environmental perturbations to test the ability of bacteria to enhance algal culture stability. In repeated assays at the scale of well plates, flasks, and bioreactors, strong effects of bacterial amendments on N. oceanica were observed. These effects were most dramatic when cultures experienced stressors such as temperature perturbations or removal of CO 2 augmentation. Isolates that were advanced for field testing included species in the genera Algoriphagus, Oceanicaulis, and Marinobacter. When consortia were generated in the field, positive effects of bacterial amendments were not observed. The amended bacteria were outcompeted, and bacterial community composition across treatments converged after the first grow out. These results highlight the complexity of using consortia in open systems, where interactions between the existing bacterial community, inoculated bacteria, and changing environmental conditions are layered upon other differences in scale and cultivation regimes. Moreover, functionally redundant bacteria are likely present in the field. Following this work, we hypothesize that tight interactions (e.g., obligate relationships between partners) will scale more predictably to outdoor systems. We suggest relying on true synthetic ecological approaches in which the relationships between bacteria and algae partners are well understood, or synthetic ecological approaches coupled with high throughput approaches to design and test consortia. We also recommend future work to examine the effect of algae-bacteria inoculation ratios on productivity and stability, track dynamics of partners through time, and manage ponds to retain beneficial symbioses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Foam Degradation Model during Thermal Hypothetical Accident Conditions

Current practice in Safety Analysis Report for Packaging (SARP) thermal analysis for hypothetical accident conditions (HAC) of packages is to not explicitly model the consequence to the foam impact limiting material, but instead to make conservative estimates of those consequences and begin calculations from that point. This approach is typically used for the foam regression distance, which is the thickness of the degraded foam layer after the 30-minute fire event. Estimates for regression distance can come directly from package burn test results or from correlations based on one-dimensional testing by the foam manufacturer. In either case, this is a subjective process, and although it can be used to produce a conservative result, it is a significant approximation in the analysis. This paper describes testing and refinement of a simplified foam regression model. Comparisons are made against available data from laboratory experiments. Model refinements were tested until satisfactory agreement was achieved. The final modeling approach was then compared with post-test inspection results from HAC burn test data. A new model with an effective thermal conductivity based on foam to char density variation was shown successful in representing laboratory-scale foam thermal degradation experiments and full-scale burn tests of a current package. This model offers a technically defensible and predictive approach for modeling thermal degradation of rigid polyurethane insulation in transport packages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task E Final Report

This is the Task E final report for DECOVALEX-2023. Task E is focused on understanding thermal, two-phase hydrological, and mechanical (TH2M) processes, especially related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and essentially non-porous in the far field (away from excavations). Investigation of the short-term (days to years) near-field (centimeters to tens of meters) behavior of salt is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of brine in a salt repository. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment. The main test case used in Task E is the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test located underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA. The Task was divided into a series of Steps. Step 0 was an introduction to processes in salt, that included matching historical unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at WIPP and matching temperature observations during BATS heater test 1a. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution relevant to heated boreholes in salt, and two-phase flow around an excavation in salt. Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the BATS 1a heater test. There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. The key learning points from Task E have been: • Heat conduction through salt typically requires non-linear thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature), but most models do a good job matching observations, given appropriate adjustments to the applied power and some thermocouple locations. • Thermal pressurization requires coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) responses that consider the thermal expansion of the fluid and solid phases. • Initialization of two-phase flow models around a borehole or excavation in salt are more realistically represented as “wetting up”, rather than “drying down” (i.e., the initial state after excavation is mostly dry, rather than mostly wet). • The BATS 1a heater test includes a significant release of brine after the end of heating, which requires a large increase in permeability to recreate. Task E has been a great learning experience for all the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in the design of follow-on BATS experiments, which are now ongoing underground at WIPP. There was a balance throughout the task between freedom to model phenomena how each team saw fit, and prescriptiveness in problem design to bring the modeling teams closer together to allow attribution of smaller differences between models to different modeling choices. The modeling approaches seem to go through two phases: an early phase of discovery or testing, and a later phase of refinement and improvement. In future modeling efforts, different field data could be used (e.g., BATS 2) and more time should be included in the processes for teams to make multiple model refinement or even significant changes to their conceptual model or setup, based on lessons learned from the modeling exercise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modeling the Electronic Absorption Spectra of the Indocarbocyanine Cy3

Accurate modeling of optical spectra requires careful treatment of the molecular structures and vibronic, environmental, and thermal contributions. The accuracy of the computational methods used to simulate absorption spectra is limited by their ability to account for all the factors that affect the spectral shapes and energetics. The ensemble-based approaches are widely used to model the absorption spectra of molecules in the condensed-phase, and their performance is system dependent. The Franck–Condon approach is suitable for simulating high resolution spectra of rigid systems, and its accuracy is limited mainly by the harmonic approximation. In this work, the absorption spectrum of the widely used cyanine Cy3 is simulated using the ensemble approach via classical and quantum sampling, as well as, the Franck–Condon approach. The factors limiting the ensemble approaches, including the sampling and force field effects, are tested, while the vertical and adiabatic harmonic approximations of the Franck–Condon approach are also systematically examined. Our results show that all the vertical methods, including the ensemble approach, are not suitable to model the absorption spectrum of Cy3, and recommend the adiabatic methods as suitable approaches for the modeling of spectra with strong vibronic contributions. We find that the thermal effects, the low frequency modes, and the simultaneous vibrational excitations have prominent contributions to the Cy3 spectrum. The inclusion of the solvent stabilizes the energetics significantly, while its negligible effect on the spectral shapes aligns well with the experimental observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗