Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “temporal correlation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34

A Deep Search with HST for Late Time Supernova Signatures in the Hosts of XRF 011030 and XRF 020427

X-ray Flashes (XRFs), are, like Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) thought to signal the collapse of massive stars in distant galaxies. Many models posit that the isotropic equivalent energies of XRFs are lower than those for GRBs, such that they are visible hom a reduced range of distances when compared with GRBs. Here we present the results of two epoch Hubble Space Telescope imaging of two XRFs. These images taken approximately 45 and 200 days post bust reveal no evidence for an associated supernova in either case. Supernovae such as SN 1998bw would have been visible out to z approximately 1.5 in each case, while faint supernovae such as SN 2002ap would be visible to z approximately 1. At these distances the bursts would not fit the observed correlations between E(sub p) and E(sub iso) and would have required extremely luminous X-ray afterglows. We conclude that should these XRFs reside at low redshift, it is necessary either that their line of sight is heavily extinguished, or that XRFs, unlike GRBs do not have temporally coincident supernovae.

Patel, Sandeep↗

An Instrument to Enable Identification of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Using Concurrent CO Measurements

We have developed an instrument concept that will enable the measurement of CO from the top of the atmosphere to the Earth's surface with very high sensitivity and at the high spatial and temporal resolutions required by the NRC Decadal Survey mission Active Sensing of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS). We are developing an innovative CO sensor that will enable the ASCENDS mission to differentiate between anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of global carbon. The NRC Decadal Survey places particular emphasis on retrieving CO information for the planetary boundary layer. Measurement made using both the 2.3 micron and 4.7 micron channels are needed to achieve the sensitivity required in the lower atmosphere where the degree of CO - CO2 correlation is indicative of anthropogenic sources of CO2. Measurements made using only the 4.7 micron channel cannot provide sufficient sensitivity to CO in the very lowest layers of the atmosphere. The fundamental method we use is Gas Filter Correlation Radiometry (GFCR), a highly successful technique used in other airborne and space-based missions for detecting trace species in the Earth's atmosphere. Our version of GFCR overcomes many of the limitations encountered by prior and existing instruments, allowing us to measure weak signals from small targets very quickly and with extremely high specificity by employing a new dual beam radiometer concept using a focal plane array. Our design will provide a means to make the desired CO measurements for the ASCENDS mission. A simple change in gas filter cell contents would allow the same hardware to measure CH4 with high precision under the nominal ASCENDS mission spatial and temporal constraints. All critical components in the sensor design are mature, many subsystems tested, and the system has been extensively modeled, bringing it to a present Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 3 (though some individual components are at TRLs 6-9). We are presently developing critical components for the new spectrometer and advancing our understanding of the measurement requirements for both CO and CH4. This new GFCR technique/sensor will enable measurements of trace gases with high sensitivity while maintaining the inherent robustness and simplicity of the more traditional radiometer hardware. Initial estimates of cost/risk of a spacebased 2-channel GFCR indicate that our design is extremely cost effective and will fit within existing ASCENDS mission budget constraints as determined by the NRC Decadal Survey and a NASA-sponsored mission study.

Cook, William B.↗

Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring

The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .

Rodell, Matthew↗

Computation of rotor aerodynamic loads with a constant vorticity contour free wake model

An analytical method is presented which facilitates the study of isolated rotors with an improved approach to wake simulation. Vortex filaments are simulated along contours of constant sheet strength for the sheet of vorticity resulting from each rotor blade. Curved vortex elements comprise the filaments which can be distorted by the local velocity field. Called the Constant Vorticity Contour wake model, the approach permits the simulation of the blades' wakes corresponding to the full span of the rotor blade. The discretization of the wake of the rotor blade produces spacing and structure that are consistent with the spatial and temporal variations in the loading. A vortex-lattice aerodynamic model of the blade is also included which introduces a finite-element structural model of the blade and consideration of the force and moment trim analysis. Results of the present version of the simulation, called RotorCRAFT, are found to correlate well with H-34 flight-test data.

Quackenbush, Todd R.↗

Precision Solar Disk Photometry - A Tool for Understanding Changes in the Sun's Luminosity

The principal scientific aim of this project is to better understand the observed long-term temporal variations in the Sun's luminosity. Satellite observations have revealed that the flux of solar radiation striking the Earth is modulated by the solar magnetic cycle, being approximately 0.1 percent larger during solar maximum. The impact of this irradiance modulation on terrestrial climate is difficult to model. However, the correlation between the Maunder minimum (a period of low solar magnetic activity in the late 1600s) and the 'Little Ice Age' in Europe during the same period does suggest that small changes in the solar luminosity can profoundly affect the Earth's climate.

Source record↗

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

Pinzon, Jorge E.↗

Evaluating the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Water Budget Components over High Mountain Asia

This study explores the uncertainties in terrestrial water budget estimation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using a suite of uncoupled land surface model (LSM) simulations. The uncertainty in the water balance components of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is significantly impacted by the uncertainty in the driving meteorology, with precipitation being the most important boundary condition. Ten gridded precipitation datasets along with a mix of model-, satellite-, and gauge-based products, are evaluated first to assess their suitability for LSM simulations over HMA. The datasets are evaluated by quantifying the systematic and random errors of these products as well as the temporal consistency of their trends. Though the broader spatial patterns of precipitation are generally well captured by the datasets, they differ significantly in their means and trends. In general, precipitation datasets that incorporate information from gauges are found to have higher accuracy with low Root Mean Square Errors and high correlation coefficient values. An ensemble of LSM simulations with selected subset of precipitation products is then used to produce the mean annual fluxes and their uncertainty over HMA in P, ET, and R to be 2.11 ± 0.45, 1.26 ± 0.11, and 0.85 ± 0.36 mm per day, respectively. The mean annual estimates of the surface mass (water) balance components from this model ensemble are comparable to global estimates from prior studies. However, the uncertainty/spread of P, ET, and R is significantly larger than the corresponding estimates from global studies. A comparison of ET, snow cover fraction, and changes in TWS estimates against remote sensing-based references confirms the significant role of the input meteorology in influencing the water budget characterization over HMA and points to the need for improving meteorological inputs.

Terrestrial water budget↗

Ice Accretion Roughness Variations on a Hybrid CRM65-Midspan Wing Model

Ice accretion roughness measurements were performed in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at NASA Glenn Research Center for the Hybrid CRM65-Midspan model in a range of icing conditions. The Hybrid CRM65-Midspan model was chosen for this investigation because 1) the model exhibits high sweep relative to models previously explored in the roughness investigations, 2) the model has leading edge characteristics similar to wing shapes currently used in mid-size commercial airliners, and 3) the sweep and thickness ratios relate better to hybrid lifting body designs for N+2 and N+3 vehicles than other models available. The investigation consisted of multiple sets of tests which focused on 1) 0-angle of attack cases replicating the conditions employed by Anderson et al. (1998) using both Appendix C and SLD cloud conditions, 2) cases based on the “Max Scallop” case by Broeren et al. (2016) and a “High Temperature” case with cloud properties similar to the “Max Scallop” case. Additional tests were performed 1) based on the “Max Scallop” case with variations in freestream static temperature and 2) using test section speeds near 10,000-hold flight conditions. The point clouds were characterized using the approach of McClain and Kreeger (2013) for the ice roughness variations and using the approach of McClain (2016) for the mean ice thickness variations. The resulting roughness and mean thickness variations generally follow the temporal scaling previously identified using on airfoil models without sweep, but the collapse of the time progression profiles is not as tight as found for past measurements on models without sweep. LEWICE and modified panel-method predictions were used explore spatial roughness variations and to compare to the roughness correlations developed by McClain et al. (2021) for the “Max Scallop” cases.

Icing↗

Lunar Instrument Data Integration Into the Virtual Reality Mission Simulation System for Decision Communication and Situational Awareness

In situ resource utilization (ISRU) technologies are a key advancement required to make human habitation on the Moon and Mars viable. The upcoming Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) mission will provide crucial correlations between volatiles and lunar geology to understand the water content available for ISRU on the moon. The mission will require the coordination of multi-disciplinary teams across the country making real time decisions based on rover instrument data. The virtual reality Mission Simulation System (vMSS) is a virtual reality platform designed at MIT by the Resource Exploration and Science of our Cosmic Environment (RESOURCE) team to provide teams with a collaboration interface for planetary missions like VIPER. Herein we determine the integration pathway for analog based datasets that are examples of VIPER's two main instruments, the near-infrared volatile spectrometer subsystem (NIRVSS) and the neutron spectrometer subsystem (NSS), into vMSS to provide the most valuable visualization tools. Focusing on improving situational awareness, decision making, reducing task load and incorporating comments from scientists working previous analogs and on the current VIPER mission, we recommend critical elements to implement into vMSS and the best approaches for data visualization. We present a review of relevant analogs and state of the art mission software. We have developed a design concept and path to flight of analysed instrument data integrated with data maps that allow for virtual manipulation and annotation between non-co-located team members. We focus on pre-mission mapping of a priori data for improved situational awareness, layering of analysed instrument data, correlative mapping and interactive capabilities for in-mission decision making, as well as archiving and annotation tools for post-mission analysis. Finally, we lay out the roadmap for the future development of immersive sample site visualization capabilities and the use of integrated instrument data in vMSS with automated temporal and geospatial planning.

Cody Alison Paige↗

An Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Relationship between Satellite-Based Land Surface Temperature and Station-Based Near-Surface Air Temperature over Brazil

A better understanding of the relationship between land surface temperature (Ts) and near-surface air temperature (Ta) is crucial for improving the simulation accuracy of climate models, developing retrieval schemes for soil and vegetation moisture, and estimating large-scale Ta from satellite-based Ts observations. In this study, we investigated the relationship between multiple satellite-based Ts products, derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua satellite, and Ta from 204 meteorological stations over Brazil during 2003–2016. Monthly satellite-based Ts products used in this study include: (1) AIRS Version 6 with 1° spatial resolution, (2) AIRS Version 7 with 1° spatial resolution, (3) MODIS Collection 6 with 0.05° spatial resolution, and (4) MODIS Collection 6 with 1° spatial resolution re-sampled from (3) for a direct comparison with AIRS products. We found that satellite-based Ts is lower than Ta over the forest area, but higher than Ta over the non-forest area. Nevertheless, the correlation coefficients (R) between monthly Ta and four Ts products during 2003–2016 are greater than 0.8 over most stations. The long-term trend analysis shows a general warming trend in temperatures, particularly over the central and eastern parts of Brazil. The satellite products could also observe the increasing Ts over the deforestation region. Furthermore, we examined the temperature anomalies during three drought events in the dry season of 2005, 2010, and 2015. All products show similar spatio-temporal patterns, with positive temperature anomalies expanding in areal coverage and magnitude from the 2005 to 2015 event. The above results show that satellite-based Ts is sensitive in reflecting environmental changes such as deforestation and extreme climatic events, and can be used as an alternative to Ta for climatological studies. Moreover, the observed differences between Ts and Ta may inform how thermal assumptions can be improved in satellite-based retrievals of soil and vegetation moisture or evapotranspiration.

land surface temperature↗

Time Resolved Particle Image Velocimetry in Nozzle Flow

Temporally resolved particle image velocimetry (TR-PIV) is the newest and most exciting tool recently developed to support our continuing efforts to characterize and improve our understanding of the decay of turbulence in jet flows—a critical element for understanding the acoustic properties of the flow. A new TR-PIV system has been developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center which is capable of acquiring planar PIV image frame pairs at up to 25 kHz. The data reported here were collected at Mach numbers of 0.5 and 0.9 and at temperature ratios of 0.89 and 1.76. The field of view of the TR-PIV system covered six nozzle diameters along the lip line of the 50.8 mm diameter jet. The cold flow data at Mach 0.5 were compared with hotwire anemometry measurements in order to validate the new TR-PIV technique. The axial turbulence profiles measured across the shear layer using TR-PIV were thinner than those measured using hotwire anemometry and remained centred along the nozzle lip line. The collected TR-PIV data illustrate the differences in the single point statistical flow properties of cold and hot jet flows. The planar, time-resolved velocity records were then used to compute two-point space–time correlations of the flow at the Mach 0.9 flow condition. The TR-PIV results show that there are differences in the convective velocity and growth rate of the turbulent structures between cold and hot flows at the same Mach number.

Temporally Resolved Particle Image Velocimetry↗

Auroral zone microbursts, substructures, and a model for microburst precipitation

The spatial and temporal characteristics of X-ray microbursts detected by collimated directional telescopes have been analyzed in detail. Results indicate the presence of a persistent periodicity of about 0.5 second and 1.2 seconds, respectively. In one event, microbursts exhibit fine structures similar to those observed by Lampton (1967). These substructures are poorly correlated in both space and time as indicated by the low correlation coefficients obtained in auto- and cross-correlation analyses between various pairs of telescopes. The source dimension of these substructures is deduced to be less than 18 km at ionospheric heights. By considering that microburst electrons are near regions of strong diffusion, we show that microburst precipitation can be generated if electric field turbulence is present in the magnetosphere. We argue that electrons of about 50 keV in bounce resonance with a parallel electric field of about 1 millivolt/meter at about 1 Hz can account for the microburst period as well as the precipitation lifetime of about 0.2 second.

Parks, G. K.↗

Crop Characteristics Research: Growth and Reflectance Analysis

Much of the early research in remote sensing follows along developing spectral signatures of cover types. It was found, however, that a signature from an unknown cover class could not always be matched to a catalog value of known cover class. This approach was abandoned and supervised classification schemes followed. These were not efficient and required extensive training. It was obvious that data acquired at a single time could not separate cover types. A large portion of the proposed research has concentrated on modeling the temporal behavior of agricultural crops and on removing the need for any training data in remote sensing surveys; the key to which is the solution of the so-called 'signature extension' problem. A clear need to develop spectral estimaters of crop ontogenic stages and yield has existed even though various correlations have been developed. Considerable effort in developing techniques to estimate these variables was devoted to this work. The need to accurately evaluate existing canopy reflectance model(s), improve these models, use them to understand the crop signatures, and estimate leaf area index was the third objective of the proposed work. A synopsis of this research effort is discussed.

Badhwar, G. D.↗

The effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements

A statistical model of water vapor fluctuations is used to describe the effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements. It is assumed that the spatial structure of refractivity is approximated by Kolmogorov turbulence theory, and that the temporal fluctuations are caused by spatial patterns moved over a site by the wind, and these assumptions are examined for the VLBI delay and delay rate observables. The results suggest that the delay rate measurement error is usually dominated by water vapor fluctuations, and water vapor induced VLBI parameter errors and correlations are determined as a function of the delay observable errors. A method is proposed for including the water vapor fluctuations in the parameter estimation method to obtain improved parameter estimates and parameter covariances.

Treuhaft, R. N.↗

Cometary Origin of Atmospheric Methane Variations on Mars Unlikely

The detection of methane in the atmosphere of Mars was first reported in 2004. Since then a number of independent observations of methane have been reported, all showing temporal variability. Up until recently, the origin of methane was attributed to sources either indigenous to Mars or exogenous, where methane is a UV degradation byproduct of organics falling on to the surface. Most recently, a new hypothesis has been proposed that argues that the appearance and variation of methane are correlated with specific meteor events at Mars. Indeed, extraplanetary material can be brought to a planet when it passes through a meteoroid stream left behind by cometary bodies orbiting the Sun. This occurs repeatedly at specific times in a planet's year as streams tend to be fairly stable in space. In this paper, we revisit this latest hypothesis by carrying out a complete analysis of all available data on Mars atmospheric methane, including the very recent data not previously published, together with all published predicted meteor events for Mars. Whether we consider the collection of individual data points and predicted meteor events, whether we apply statistical analysis, or whether we consider different time spans between high methane measurements and the occurrence of meteor events, we find no compelling evidence for any correlation between atmospheric methane and predicted meteor events.

methane↗

Polarimetric Retrievals of Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations

Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is an important parameter of liquid clouds and is crucial to understanding aerosol-cloud interactions. It couples boundary layer aerosol composition, size and concentration with cloud reflectivity. It affects cloud evolution, precipitation, radiative forcing, global climate and, through observation, can be used to partially monitor the first indirect effect. With its unique combination of multi-wavelength, multi-angle, total and polarized reflectance measurements, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) retrieves Nd with relatively few assumptions. The approach involves measuring cloud optical thickness, mean droplet extinction cross-section and cloud physical thickness. Polarimetric observations are capable of measuring the effective variance, or width, of the droplet size distribution. Estimating cloud geometrical thickness is also an important component of the polarimetric Nd retrieval, which is accomplished using polarimetric measurements in a water vapor absorption band to retrieve the amount of in-cloud water vapor and relating this to physical thickness. We highlight the unique abilities and quantify uncertainties of the polarimetric approach. We validate the approach using observational data from the North Atlantic and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES). NAAMES targets specific phases in the seasonal phytoplankton lifecycle and ocean-atmosphere linkages. This study provides an excellent opportunity for the RSP to evaluate its approach of sensing Nd over a range of concentrations and cloud types with in situ measurements from a Cloud Droplet Probe (CDP). The RSP and CDP, along with an array of other instruments, are flown on the NASA C-130 aircraft, which flies in situ and remote sensing legs in sequence. Cloud base heights retrieved by the RSP compare well with those derived in situ (R=0.83) and by a ceilometer aboard the R.V. Atlantis (R=0.79). Comparing geometric mean values from 12 science flights throughout the NAAMES-1 and NAAMES-2 campaigns, we find a strong correlation between Nd retrieved by the RSP and CDP (R=0.96). A linear least squares fit has a slope of 0.92 and an intercept of 0.3 cm−3. Uncertainty in this comparison can be attributed to cloud 3D effects, nonlinear liquid water profiles, multilayered clouds, measurement uncertainty, variation in spatial and temporal sampling, and assumptions used within the method. Radiometric uncertainties of the RSP measurements lead to biases on derived optical thickness and cloud physical thickness, but these biases largely cancel out when deriving Nd for most conditions and geometries. We find that a polarimetric approach to sensing Nd is viable and the RSP is capable of accurately retrieving Nd for a variety of cloud types and meteorological conditions.

Droplet concentration↗

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

Shape from spectra

We introduce a new unified atmospheric–topographic correction approach that estimates surface geometry directly from the radiance measurement. Surface topography influences the at-sensor radiance measurement, making precise topography modeling critical in applications like vegetation or snow studies in mountainous terrain. Currently, elevation maps are used to derive topographic variables such as the slope and sky-view factor. This process is error-prone since static global digital elevation models do not generally achieve the accuracy required, and even minor mismatches in spatial resolution can introduce significant artifacts in downstream processing. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate topographic parameters directly from spectral data, ensuring perfect physical consistency, temporal coincidence, and spatial alignment. We present experiments estimating topographic slope in two scenes in Southern California, with data from NASA’s Next Generation Airborne Visible/Near Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG). We compared our radiance-based estimates against high-resolution lidar datasets. Our initial validation result showed a correlation of R 2 = 0.864 (n = 160) over the homogeneous surface of Beckman Auditorium’s cone-shaped roof on the Caltech campus in Pasadena, California. We then validate the model over a larger study site near Santa Clarita, California, finding R 2 = 0.923 (n = 40,000) in a 350 x 350m area. The accuracy of our model estimates, combined with its systematic advantages over the alternative, show the potential of the approach for use in both airborne campaigns and orbital missions.

Nimrod Carmon↗