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At least 613 records · Page 34

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ~25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mark 3 interactive data analysis system

The interactive data analysis system, a major subset of the total Mark 3 very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) software system is described. The system consists of two major and a number of small programs. These programs provide for the scientific analysis of the observed values of delay and delay rate generated by the VLBI data reduction programs and product the geophysical and astrometric parameters which are among the ultimate products of VLBI. The two major programs are CALC and SOLVE. CALC generates the theoretical values of VLBI delay rate as well as partial derivatives based on apriori values of the geophysical and astronometric parameters. SOLVE is a least squares parameters estimation program which yields the geophysical and astrometric parameters using the observed values by the data processing system and theoretical values and partial derivatives provided by CALC. SOLVE is a highly interactive program in which the user selects the exact form of the recovered parameters and the data to be accepted into the solution.

Ryan, J. W.↗

Electric Propulsion Options for 10 kW Class Earth-Space Missions

Five and 10 kW ion and arcjet propulsion system options for a near-term space demonstration experiment were evaluated. Analyses were conducted to determine first-order propulsion system performance and system component mass estimates. Overall mission performance of the electric propulsion systems was quantified in terms of the maximum thrusting time, total impulse, and velocity increment capability available when integrated onto a generic spacecraft under fixed mission model assumptions. Maximum available thrusting times for the ion-propelled spacecraft options, launched on a DELTA 2 6920 vehicle, range from approximately 8,600 hours for a 4-engine 10 kW system to more than 29,600 hours for a single-engine 5 kW system. Maximum total impulse values and maximum delta-v's range from 1.2x10 (exp 7) to 2.1x10 (exp 7) N-s, and 3550 to 6200 m/s, respectively. Maximum available thrusting times for the arcjet propelled spacecraft launched on the DELTA 2 6920 vehicle range from approximately 528 hours for the 6-engine 10 kW hydrazine system to 2328 hours for the single-engine 5 kW system. Maximum total impulse values and maximum delta-v's range from 2.2x10 (exp 6) to 3.6x10 (exp 6) N-s, and approximately 662 to 1072 m/s, respectively.

Patterson, M. J.↗

Propulsion Technology Lifecycle Operational Analysis

The paper presents the results of a focused effort performed by the members of the Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) Functional Requirements Sub-team to develop propulsion data to support Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS). This is a spreadsheet application to analyze the impact of technology decisions at a system-of-systems level. Results are summarized in an Excel workbook we call the Technology Tool Box (TTB). The TTB provides data for technology performance, operations, and programmatic parameters in the form of a library of technical information to support analysis tools and/or models. The lifecycle of technologies can be analyzed from this data and particularly useful for system operations involving long running missions. The propulsion technologies in this paper are listed against Chemical Rocket Engines in a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) format. The overall effort involved establishing four elements: (1) A general purpose Functional System Breakdown Structure (FSBS). (2) Operational Requirements for Rocket Engines. (3) Technology Metric Values associated with Operating Systems (4) Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) of Chemical Rocket Engines The list of Chemical Rocket Engines identified in the WBS is by no means complete. It is planned to update the TTB with a more complete list of available Chemical Rocket Engines for United States (US) engines and add the Foreign rocket engines to the WBS which are available to NASA and the Aerospace Industry. The Operational Technology Metric Values were derived by the SPST Sub-team in the form of the TTB and establishes a database for users to help evaluate and establish the technology level of each Chemical Rocket Engine in the database. The Technology Metric Values will serve as a guide to help determine which rocket engine to invest technology money in for future development.

Robinson, John W.↗

Polyhedral Interpolation for Optimal Reaction Control System Jet Selection

An efficient algorithm is described for interpolating optimal values for spacecraft Reaction Control System jet firing duty cycles. The algorithm uses the symmetrical geometry of the optimal solution to reduce the number of calculations and data storage requirements to a level that enables implementation on the small real time flight control systems used in spacecraft. The process minimizes acceleration direction errors, maximizes control authority, and minimizes fuel consumption.

flight optimization↗

Analysis of Multi-Output Hybrid Energy Systems Interacting with the Grid: Application of Improved Price-Taker and Price-Maker Approaches to Nuclear-Hydrogen Systems

The growing recognition of the value of hydrogen as an energy intermediate in supporting future power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy has prompted many studies to quantify the economic potential of multi-output hybrid systems, which are one type of integrated energy systems (IES). Because of the complexity of modeling multiple sectors, these studies typically use simplified modeling approaches to capture the interactions between sectors. In this study, we explore the implications of alternative modeling approaches for nuclear-hydrogen IES focusing on a power system in the Midwest United States. We combine highly resolved capacity expansion and production cost modeling tools of the power system with a detailed hydrogen system optimization tool to determine the optimal electrolyzer and storage sizing and optimal operations of the nuclear-hydrogen hybrid resource across three future study years. We compare economic and operational outcomes across a spectrum of modeling approaches, including a non-hybridized base approach; a traditional price-taker approach that does not include the impact of hydrogen production on the electricity system; a power-system-focused price-maker approach that does not account for temporal hydrogen constraints; and two improved price-taker and price-maker approaches that each address the impact of revenue-optimal levels of electricity production on the resulting power system and temporal hydrogen constraints on the overall feasible solution. Results show how a traditional price-taker approach can overestimate the economic benefits of multi-output nuclear-hydrogen IES compared to our two improved approaches that estimate both hydrogen system constraints and power system interaction. We find that hydrogen output requirements and storage size limits are key drivers to overall operations and some economic outcomes. Under our assumed constant hydrogen output requirement, storage costs, test system, and modeling approaches, our results indicate that hybridization can provide a net benefit, but results are sensitive to the treatment of hydrogen revenues and electricity prices as impacted by the power system evolution.

capacity expansion modeling↗

The Bond Dissociation Energies of 1-Butene

The bond dissociation energies of 1-butene and several calibration systems are computed using the G2(MP2) approach. The agreement between the calibration systems and experiment is very good. The computed values for 1-butene are compared with calibration systems and the agreement between the computed results for 1-butene and the "rule of thumb" values from the smaller systems is remarkably good.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

Reliability and performance evaluation of systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems

A method for evaluating the reliability of real-time systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems is proposed and investigated. It is a three stage technique that addresses the impact of knowledge-base uncertainties on the performance of expert systems. In the first stage, a Markov reliability model of the system is developed which identifies the key performance parameters of the expert system. In the second stage, the evaluation method is used to determine the values of the expert system's key performance parameters. The performance parameters can be evaluated directly by using a probabilistic model of uncertainties in the knowledge-base or by using sensitivity analyses. In the third and final state, the performance parameters of the expert system are combined with performance parameters for other system components and subsystems to evaluate the reliability and performance of the complete system. The evaluation method is demonstrated in the context of a simple expert system used to supervise the performances of an FDI algorithm associated with an aircraft longitudinal flight-control system.

Beaton, Robert M.↗

Demand Response Potential from the Bulk Grid Perspective

Gain insight from an exploration of the potential value of demand response (DR) in future power systems. Using hourly DR resource estimates by sub-sector, electrical end-use, and grid service, we incorporate virtual generator models of DR resources into large-scale production cost models, and analyze the grid-level impacts in terms of the ability of DR to reduce system costs and potentially help integrate renewables or reduce system emissions. Additionally, we examine the value of DR, its revenue, and how these change under different system conditions. In this panel session, we will describe our input data and modeling methods, provide an overview of the production cost models used, and summarize key results from analyses in Florida and the western United States. Findings include variations in DR value by end-use and geography, an ability to increase economic PV deployment potential in high penetration systems, and mixed emissions outcomes depending on system composition and fuel prices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hubble Space Telescope observations of C2 molecules in diffuse interstellar clouds

Interstellar C2 F-X (1342 A) and D-X (2313 A) bands in the spectrum of zeta Oph were detected using the Goddard High-Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The total C2 column density is (1.79 +/- 0.06) 10(exp 13)/sq cm for an adopted f-value of 0.0545 for the 2313 A band of the Mulliken (D-X) system. Relative f-values for the 0-0 F-X, 0-0 D-X, and 2-0 A-X (Phillips) bands are derived by combining ultraviolet and near-infrared spectra: f(sub 00 sup FX)/f(sub 00 sup DX) = 1.83 +/- 0.18 and f(sub 20 sup AX)/f(sub 00 sup DX) = 0.0226 +/- 0.0029. For the Mulliken system, lines are detected up to a rotational level J double prime = 24. The relative populations along the rotational ladder are shown to be consistent with the physical and environmental conditions suggested by other diagnostics. Interstellar C2 molecules were detected towards zeta Per (N(C2) = (0.80 +/- 0.23) 10(exp 13)) but not towards Beta(sup 1), pi, and omega(sup 1) Sco(N(C2) less than or equal to 0.17 x 10(exp 13)/sq cm.

Lambert, David L.↗

Mission science value-cost savings from the Advanced Imaging Communication System (AICS)

An Advanced Imaging Communication System (AICS) was proposed in the mid-1970s as an alternative to the Voyager data/communication system architecture. The AICS achieved virtually error free communication with little loss in the downlink data rate by concatenating a powerful Reed-Solomon block code with the Voyager convolutionally coded, Viterbi decoded downlink channel. The clean channel allowed AICS sophisticated adaptive data compression techniques. Both Voyager and the Galileo mission have implemented AICS components, and the concatenated channel itself is heading for international standardization. An analysis that assigns a dollar value/cost savings to AICS mission performance gains is presented. A conservative value or savings of $3 million for Voyager, $4.5 million for Galileo, and as much as $7 to 9.5 million per mission for future projects such as the proposed Mariner Mar 2 series is shown.

Rice, R. F.↗

Building Demand Flexibility: Grid Service Value of Future Market Entrants

The building sector is an important source of demand-side flexibility that is crucial for renewable energy integration in the future power systems. The grid service value of building flexibility, especially that which provides load shifting, has not been analyzed for the United States. We use a technology-agnostic approach based on detailed grid expansion and production cost modeling results to evaluate the capacity, energy, and ancillary service values of a marginal kilowatt-hour (kWh) of daily, shiftable building flexibility as a presumed market entrant in the 2030 U.S. power systems. We find the monthly mean of building flexibility has a range of 0-38 cents/kWh-day, depending on the original usage hour, month, region, building flexibility parameters, and grid scenario. The daily value consists of the highest-value hour each day across all the scenarios has a range of 0-620 cents/kWh-day. The results are provided in an open database for users to obtain the values of specific technologies based on what services can be provided, when, and in what quantities.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Grand challenges of wind energy science – meeting the needs and services of the power system

The share of wind power in power systems is increasing dramatically, and this is happening in parallel with increased penetration of solar photovoltaics, storage, other inverter-based technologies, and electrification of other sectors. Recognising the fundamental objective of power systems, maintaining supply–demand balance reliably at the lowest cost, and integrating all these technologies are significant research challenges that are driving radical changes to planning and operations of power systems globally. In this changing environment, wind power can maximise its long-term value to the power system by balancing the needs it imposes on the power system with its contribution to addressing these needs with services. A needs and services paradigm is adopted here to highlight these research challenges, which should also be guided by a balanced approach, concentrating on its advantages over competitors. The research challenges within the wind technology itself are many and varied, with control and coordination internally being a focal point in parallel with a strong recommendation for a holistic approach targeted at where wind has an advantage over its competitors and in coordination with research into other technologies such as storage, power electronics, and power systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

LP-search and its use in analysis of the accuracy of control systems with acoustical models

The LP-search is proposed as an analog of the Monte Carlo method for finding values in nonlinear statistical systems. It is concluded that: To attain the required accuracy in solution to the problem of control for a statistical system in the LP-search, a considerably smaller number of tests is required than in the Monte Carlo method. The LP-search allows the possibility of multiple repetitions of tests under identical conditions and observability of the output variables of the system.

Sergeyev, V. I.↗

A Contrast in Use of Metrics in Earth Science Data Systems

In recent years there has been a surge in the number of systems for processing, archiving and distributing remotely sensed data. Such systems, working independently as well as in collaboration, have been contributing greatly to the advances in the scientific understanding of the Earth system, as well as utilization of the data for nationally and internationally important applications. Among such systems, we consider those that are developed by or under the sponsorship of NASA to fulfill one of its strategic objectives: "Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs." NASA's Earth science data systems are of varying size and complexity depending on the requirements they are intended to meet. Some data systems are regarded as NASA's "Core Capabilities" that provide the basic infrastructure for processing, archiving and distributing a set of data products to a large and diverse user community in a robust and reliable manner. Other data systems constitute "Community Capabilities". These provide specialized and innovative services to data users and/or research products offering new scientific insight. Such data systems are generally supported by NASA through peer reviewed competition. Examples of Core Capabilities are 1. Earth Observing Data and Information System (EOSDIS) with its Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPSs), and the EOS Clearing House (ECHO); 2. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Science Data and Information System (TSDIS); 3. Ocean Data Processing System (ODPS); and 4. CloudSat Data Processing Center. Examples of Community Capabilities are projects under the Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network (REASON), and Advancing Collaborative Connections for Earth System Science (ACCESS) Programs. In managing these data system capabilities, it is necessary to have well-established goals and to measure progress relative to them. Progress is measured through "metrics", which can be a combination of quantitative as well as qualitative assessments. The specific metrics of interest depend on the user of the metrics as well as the type of data system. The users of metrics can be data system managers, program managers, funding agency or the public. Data system managers need metrics for assessing and improving the performance of the system and for future planning. Program managers need metrics to assess progress and the value of the data systems sponsored by them. Also, there is a difference in the metrics needed for core capabilities that tend to be more complex, larger and longer-term compared to community capabilities and the community capabilities that tend to be simpler, smaller and shorter-term. Even among community capabilities there are differences; hence the same set of metrics does not apply to all. Some provide data products to users, some provide services that enable better utilization of data or interoperability among other systems, and some are a part of a larger project where provision of data or services is only a minor activity. There is also a contrast between metrics used for internal and external purposes. Examples of internal purposes are: ensuring that the system meets its requirements, and planning for evolution and growth. Examples of external purposes are: providing to sponsors indicators of success of the systems, demonstrating the contributions of the system to overall program success, etc. This paper will consider EOSDIS, REASON and ACCESS programs to show the various types of metrics needed and how they need to be tailored to the types of data systems while maintaining the overall management goals of measuring progress and contributions made by the data systems.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗

LCOE reduction through proactively optimized monitoring of PV Systems (Final Technical Report)

The project demonstrates the value proposition for a high-resolution monitoring system (HRMS) with diagnostic-prognostic capability and determine its impact on LCOE. The HRMS differs from conventional monitoring systems in a number of ways. First it will include the capability to automatically measure IV curves at the string and module levels. This provides a much richer view into the DC performance of the PV system and allows classification of many typical failure and degradation modes. Second, it will incorporate software capable of quantifying power and energy losses in the field as well as define the location and mechanism of the power and energy loss. Moreover, we aimed to deliver a prognostic system that is capable of predicting certain failures before they occur and giving system operators the opportunity to more efficiently plan operations and maintenance (O&M) activity in order to lower costs and increase yield over the life of the system. The research identifies cost targets required for different monitoring stages, including at the string combiner, at the individual string, and at the module level, to lower the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Finally, a comprehensive guide determines the value PV monitoring brings to PV field operations. The guide assists plant operators in maximizing value from existing plants and identify the trade-offs of different monitoring solutions for future plants depending on the size, location, and expected system lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗