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At least 613 records · Page 34

Validity of the Aluminum Equivalent Approximation in Space Radiation Shielding

The origin of the aluminum equivalent shield approximation in space radiation analysis can be traced back to its roots in the early years of the NASA space programs (Mercury, Gemini and Apollo) wherein the primary radiobiological concern was the intense sources of ionizing radiation causing short term effects which was thought to jeopardize the safety of the crew and hence the mission. Herein, it is shown that the aluminum equivalent shield approximation, although reasonably well suited for that time period and to the application for which it was developed, is of questionable usefulness to the radiobiological concerns of routine space operations of the 21 st century which will include long stays onboard the International Space Station (ISS) and perhaps the moon. This is especially true for a risk based protection system, as appears imminent for deep space exploration where the long-term effects of Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) exposure is of primary concern. The present analysis demonstrates that sufficiently large errors in the interior particle environment of a spacecraft result from the use of the aluminum equivalent approximation, and such approximations should be avoided in future astronaut risk estimates. In this study, the aluminum equivalent approximation is evaluated as a means for estimating the particle environment within a spacecraft structure induced by the GCR radiation field. For comparison, the two extremes of the GCR environment, the 1977 solar minimum and the 2001 solar maximum, are considered. These environments are coupled to the Langley Research Center (LaRC) deterministic ionized particle transport code High charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport (HZETRN), which propagates the GCR spectra for elements with charges (Z) in the range I <= Z <= 28 (H -- Ni) and secondary neutrons through selected target materials. The coupling of the GCR extremes to HZETRN allows for the examination of the induced environment within the interior' of an idealized spacecraft as approximated by a spherical shell shield, and the effects of the aluminum equivalent approximation for a good polymeric shield material such as genetic polyethylene (PE). The shield thickness is represented by a 25 g/cm spherical shell. Although one could imagine the progression to greater thickness, the current range will be sufficient to evaluate the qualitative usefulness of the aluminum equivalent approximation. Upon establishing the inaccuracies of the aluminum equivalent approximation through numerical simulations of the GCR radiation field attenuation for PE and aluminum equivalent PE spherical shells, we Anther present results for a limited set of commercially available, hydrogen rich, multifunctional polymeric constituents to assess the effect of the aluminum equivalent approximation on their radiation attenuation response as compared to the generic PE.

Badavi, Francis F.↗

Investigation of Primary Mirror Segment's Residual Errors for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The primary mirror segment aberrations after shape corrections with warping harness have been identified as the single largest error term in the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) image quality error budget. In order to better understand the likely errors and how they will impact the telescope performance we have performed detailed simulations. We first generated unwarped primary mirror segment surface shapes that met TMT specifications. Then we used the predicted warping harness influence functions and a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor model to determine estimates for the 492 corrected segment surfaces that make up the TMT primary mirror. Surface and control parameters, as well as the number of subapertures were varied to explore the parameter space. The corrected segment shapes were then passed to an optical TMT model built using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) developed Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems (MACOS) ray-trace simulator. The generated exit pupil wavefront error maps provided RMS wavefront error and image-plane characteristics like the Normalized Point Source Sensitivity (PSSN). The results have been used to optimize the segment shape correction and wavefront sensor designs as well as provide input to the TMT systems engineering error budgets.

warping harness↗

Cost Estimates of Roll-to-Roll Production of Organic Light Emitting Devices for Lighting

White organic light emitting devices (WOLEDs) offerdistinct advantages as solid state lighting sources, including high energy efficiency, superior color quality,and a flexible, thin profile that can accommodate a vast array of possible fixture designs. Recent advances in device lifetime and high speed deposition suggest that mass production of WOLED panels is approaching an inflection point. To understand the tradeoffs in the volume manufacturing of WOLED lighting panels, in this work, we estimate the cost of white WOLED panel production based on vacuum and vapor phase deposition in a roll-to-roll production line envisioned to yield an annual capacity of at least 6 × 10 6 m 2 . Assuming a WOLED operating luminance at 10 klm/m 2 , we anticipate a $\$12.5$ /klm cost of a WOLED light engine that includes the cost of the current driverand packaging. With incremental reduction in material and driver costs and improved luminance, the costof WOLED lighting can be reduced to $\$6.3$ /klm in thenear term, potentially positioning WOLEDs for use innumerous premium lighting applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lessons from Earth Aerobiology for Venus Astrobiology

Venus’s clouds have often suggested as a possible habitat. The constraints governing putative airborne life in such a habitat in turn inform priorities and strategies for remote and in situ exploration, methods by which resulting biosignatures might be detected, exoplanet habitability assessment, and planetary protection concerns. Lessons drawn from studying Earth’s aerobiosphere can help improve this understanding. There are altitude ranges within Venus’s clouds in which temperature, pressure, particle size, and radiation appear to be within the limits of microbial life on Earth, and life cycles involving S- and Fe-based redox metabolism have been proposed. However, given the lack of a habitable surface reservoir, a long-term stable Venus aerobiosphere would require that the reproduction rate of the airborne microbes be faster than the settling rate of airborne microbes due to gravity, or eventually the population would be depleted; put another way, the mean generation time would need to exceed the mean residence time. This creates a joint constraint of aerosol dynamics, potential nutrient availability and energy influx, and bioenergetic costs such as desiccation and radiation damage. Even at an optimistic estimate of 75% H2SO4, Venus aerosol water activity (aw) is still ~0.02, far below the observed microbial growth limit of ~0.6. Long-term desiccation with brief spurts of repair and growth in response to transient water influx, such as from volcanism, is the most likely model for Earth-like life on Venus – a ‘desert bloom’ scenario. Several high-priority science goals – cloud aerosol composition, internal radiative flux, and aerosol residence time and circulation models – thus will also improve our understanding of Venus in an astrobiology context. In Earth’s troposphere, warm water clouds can carry 103 – 105 cells/mL, some metabolically active. However, Earth’s stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer may be a better analogue: supercooled sulfuric acidaerosols (acid weight fraction 0.6 – 0.85, 0.1 – 1 μm diameter, 0.1 – 1 cm-3) with little water activity, long residence times, high UV radiation, and only sporadic influx from surface particle sources. Though ‘hot spots’ can occur associated with tropospheric mixing, viable cells in stratospheric samples are rare (~102 cells/m3), and primarily inactive forms such as spores. It is not yet clear whether such bioaerosols are associated with sulfate aerosols or simply co-located, and reproduction in situ has not yet been observed. In this model of a sparse, largely dormant Venus ecosystem, a single transect on descent is likely to pass through a low-water, inactive region, missing potential signs of habitability or biosignatures. A targeted strategy would sample through an aerial region with some upwelling from surface sources, andtake multiple transects separated in time and space. This is compatible with other in situ science goals seeking to understand the dynamics and heterogeneities of Venus’s clouds.

Lower atmosphere↗

Wavenumber-frequency deconvolution of aeroacoustic microphone phased array data of arbitrary coherence

Deconvolution of aeroacoustic data acquired with microphone phased arrays is a computationally-challenging task for distributed sources with arbitrary coherence. A new technique for performing such deconvolution is proposed. This technique relies on analysis of the array data in the wavenumber-frequency domain, allowing for fast convolution and reduced storage requirements when compared to traditional coherent deconvolution. A positive semidefinite constraint for the iterative deconvolution procedure is implemented and shows improved behavior in terms of quantifiable convergence metrics when compared to a standalone covariance inequality constraint. A series of simulations validates the method's ability to resolve coherence and phase angle relationships between partially-coherent sources, as well as determines convergence criteria for deconvolution analysis. Simulations for point sources near the microphone phased array show potential for handling such data in the wavenumber-frequency domain. In particular, a physics-based integration boundary calculation is described, and can successfully isolate sources and track the appropriate integration bounds with and without the presence of flow. Magnitude and phase relationships between multiple sources are successfully extracted. Limitations of the deconvolution technique are determined from the simulations, particularly in the context of a simulated acoustic field in a closed test section wind tunnel with strong boundary layer contamination. A final application to a trailing edge noise experiment conducted in an open-jet wind tunnel matches best estimates of acoustic levels from traditional calculation methods and qualitatively assesses the coherence characteristics of the trailing edge noise source.

phased array↗

Modeling Holocene Peatland Carbon Accumulation in North America

Peatlands are a large carbon reservoir. Yet the quantification of their carbon stock still has a large uncertainty due to lacking observational data and well-tested peatland biogeochemistry models. Here, a process-based peatland model was calibrated using long-term peat carbon accumulation data at multiple sites in North America. The model was then applied to quantify the peat carbon accumulation rates and stocks within North America over the last 12,000 years. We estimated that 85–174 Pg carbon was accumulated in North American peatlands over the study period including 0.37–0.76 Pg carbon in subtropical peatlands. During the period from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago, the warmer and wetter conditions might have played an important role in stimulating peat carbon accumulation by enhancing plant photosynthesis. Enhanced peat decomposition due to warming slowed the carbon accumulation through the rest of the Holocene. While recent modeling studies indicate that the northern peatlands will continue to act as a carbon sink in this century, our studies suggest that future enhanced peat decomposition accompanied by peatland areal changes induced by permafrost degradation and other disturbances shall confound the sink and source analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and benchmarking of transient nodal code SIMULATE5-K neutron kinetics solver

SIMULATE5-K is Studsvik's next generation best estimate transient code. The time dependent diffusion equation is solved with a nodal method consistent with that implemented in the licensed core design code SIMULATE5. Arbitrary number of neutron and delayed neutron precursor groups can be used. For the solution of the spatial problem, the coupling coefficients used to relate the node leakages are found by first converting the time dependent diffusion equation to a static diffusion equation with the use of flux and delayed neutron precursor dynamic frequencies. Once the static-like equations are obtained, the multi-group analytical nodal model is used to obtain the coupling coefficients, expressing the node leakage in terms of adjacent node average fluxes. The coupling coefficients are then inserted into the time dependent nodal balance equation. For the time integration, the time dependent neutron balance equation is solved with the frequency transformation method. The treatment of the temporal dependence yields a fixed source problem which can be solved utilizing the existing fixed-source methodology. The primary purpose of this paper is to describe the neutron kinetics methodology implemented in SIMULATE5-K. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated for a series of well-known, neutronic-only benchmark problems. (author)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Continuing Global SO2 Data Record from OMI and SNPP/OMPS to JPSS-1/NOAA-20/OMPS

Since 2004, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura spacecraft has been providing global observations that help to constrain the sources, transport, and environmental impacts of anthropogonic and volcanic SO2. The OMI SO2 data record is now being continued with the NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP)/Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) launched in 2011. Both OMI and SNPP/OMPS SO2 products are produced with the Goddard principal component analysis (PCA) based spectral fitting algorithm. This data-driven technique inherently accounts for various instrumental factors and geophysical interferences, leading to high-quality, consistent SO2 retrievals between OMI and SNPP/OMPS, despite coarser spectral (~0.5 nm vs. ~1 nm) and spatial (13  24 km2 vs. 50  50 km2 at nadir) resolution for the latter. In this presentation, we describe our effort to continue the long-term SO2 climate data record using measurements from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)-1/NOAA-20 (N20)/OMPS. Launched in 2017, the N20/OMPS is a follow-on for SNPP/OMPS but features a spatial resolution (17  13 km2) that is comparable with OMI. We will discuss our progress implementing the PCA SO2 algorithm with N20/OMPS, especially algorithmic improvements to further reduce retrieval noise and bias for large volcanic eruptions. We will present examples for both continuously emitting sources (e.g., power plants in India and oil/gas fields in the Middle East) and volcanic eruptions (e.g., Raikoke in 2019). We will also compare N20/OMPS SO2 retrievals with OMI and SNPP/OMPS, as well as other instruments such as the ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P)/TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). To assess the ability of N20/OMPS to monitor and quantify SO2 sources, we will run the level 2 retrievals through a top-down emission algorithm to estimate the SO2 emission strengths for a number of point sources. Finally, we will outline our plan for further algorithm refinement and public data release.

SO2↗

Measurement of Surface Deformation Related to the December 2018 Mt. Etna Eruption Using Time-Series Interferometry and Magma Modeling for Hazard Zone Mapping

Mount Etna has erupted several times since it was first formed. Recently, Mount Etna began erupting again over 24–27 December 2018. Because it erupts frequently, Mount Etna should be observed on a frequent basis. From June 2018 to October 2019, 34 and 56 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images were acquired from the ascending and descending tracks of the Sentinel-1 satellite, respectively. We employed the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) and a refined small baseline subset (SBAS) InSAR method to produce a surface deformation time-series map. In the time-series analysis, the phase signal remained unaltered with time. The Okada model was then applied to the result to generate a modeled interferogram, and the Q-LavHA program was run to generate a lava flow prediction model. A direct comparison of the results showed that Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI)-StaMPS and the refined SBAS technique were comparable in terms of the displacement pattern, with slightly different velocity values obtained for individual points. In particular, a velocity range of −25 to 21 cm/yr was obtained from PSI-StaMPS, whereas a range of −30 to 25 cm/yr was obtained from the refined SBAS method. Upon computation of the vertical and east-west displacement components based on ascending and descending track data using both methods, deformation velocities of 51.5 and 52.5 cm/yr in the westerly direction on the western flank of Mount Etna were obtained from PSI-StaMPS and the refined SBAS method, respectively, whereas on the eastern flank, deformation toward the east was estimated to occur at a velocity of 50.1 or 54.2 cm/yr, respectively. PSIStaMPS estimated a vertical deformation velocity of −5.3 to 18.3 cm/yr, whereas the refined SBAS method produced a velocity range of approximately −7 to 19 cm/yr. The interferogram obtained via Okada modeling showed two fault sources in the 2018 Mount Etna eruption and a total volume change of approximately 12.39 × 10 6 m 3 . From the modeling results, a lava flow prediction model was generated using the Q-LavHA program. The approaches described in this study can be used by government officials, authorities, and other decision-makers to monitor and assess the risk of volcanic activity in the region.

Suci Ramayanti↗

Quantum Computing for High-Energy Physics: State of the Art and Challenges

Quantum computers offer an intriguing path for a paradigmatic change of computing in the natural sciences and beyond, with the potential for achieving a so-called quantum advantage—namely, a significant (in some cases exponential) speedup of numerical simulations. The rapid development of hardware devices with various realizations of qubits enables the execution of small-scale but representative applications on quantum computers. In particular, the high-energy physics community plays a pivotal role in accessing the power of quantum computing, since the field is a driving source for challenging computational problems. This concerns, on the theoretical side, the exploration of models that are very hard or even impossible to address with classical techniques and, on the experimental side, the enormous data challenge of newly emerging experiments, such as the upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider. In this Roadmap paper, led by CERN, DESY, and IBM, we provide the status of high-energy physics quantum computations and give examples of theoretical and experimental target benchmark applications, which can be addressed in the near future. Having in mind hardware with about 100 qubits capable of executing several thousand two-qubit gates, where possible, we also provide resource estimates for the examples given using error-mitigated quantum computing. The ultimate declared goal of this task force is therefore to trigger further research in the high-energy physics community to develop interesting use cases for demonstrations on near-term quantum computers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗

An implantable biomechanical energy harvester for animal monitoring devices

Insufficient service life and the resulting need for battery replacements have been a great challenge for implantable electronic devices. This is particularly true for animal tracking applications, because recapturing animals is often unlikely once they are released to the wild. To tackle this problem, we developed a biomechanical energy harvester that uses a Macro Fiber Composite™ (MFC) piezoelectric beam to harvest the mechanical energy from animals’ body bending movements as the power source for implantable and wearable devices. Prototypes of an underwater acoustic transmitter using this technology were subdermally implanted into juvenile white sturgeon and their energy harvesting performance was evaluated through the device’s transmissions. Additionally, the fish successfully recovered from the implantation surgery and freely swam inside a tank. The transmitter prototypes in the fish continually transmitted signals for a period up to 5 weeks. A benchtop test setup was also created to emulate the fish’s body bending, estimate the device’s energy harvesting performance in the live fish, and perform accelerated fatigue testing of the energy harvester by applying test parameters learned from a video study of the fish’s body movement and behavior characteristics. The gradual depolarization of the piezoelectric ceramic material in the MFC under cyclic mechanical loading was the main limiting factor for the life span of the energy harvester. Pathways for improvement are proposed to achieve long-term efficacy of powering implantable and wearable electronic devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Substructure in the stellar halo near the Sun: I. Data-driven clustering in integrals-of-motion space

Context. Merger debris is expected to populate the stellar haloes of galaxies. In the case of the Milky Way, this debris should be apparent as clumps in a space defined by the orbital integrals of motion of the stars. Aims. Our aim is to develop a data-driven and statistics-based method for finding these clumps in integrals-of-motion space for nearby halo stars and to evaluate their significance robustly. Methods. We used data from Gaia EDR3, extended with radial velocities from ground-based spectroscopic surveys, to construct a sample of halo stars within 2.5 kpc from the Sun. We applied a hierarchical clustering method that makes exhaustive use of the single linkage algorithm in three-dimensional space defined by the commonly used integrals of motion energy E, together with two components of the angular momentum, L z and L ⊥ . To evaluate the statistical significance of the clusters, we compared the density within an ellipsoidal region centred on the cluster to that of random sets with similar global dynamical properties. By selecting the signal at the location of their maximum statistical significance in the hierarchical tree, we extracted a set of significant unique clusters. By describing these clusters with ellipsoids, we estimated the proximity of a star to the cluster centre using the Mahalanobis distance. Additionally, we applied the HDBSCAN clustering algorithm in velocity space to each cluster to extract subgroups representing debris with different orbital phases. Results. Our procedure identifies 67 highly significant clusters (> 3σ), containing 12% of the sources in our halo set, and 232 subgroups or individual streams in velocity space. In total, 13.8% of the stars in our data set can be confidently associated with a significant cluster based on their Mahalanobis distance. Inspection of the hierarchical tree describing our data set reveals a complex web of relations between the significant clusters, suggesting that they can be tentatively grouped into at least six main large structures, many of which can be associated with previously identified halo substructures, and a number of independent substructures. This preliminary conclusion is further explored in a companion paper, in which we also characterise the substructures in terms of their stellar populations. Conclusions. Our method allows us to systematically detect kinematic substructures in the Galactic stellar halo with a data-driven and interpretable algorithm. The list of the clusters and the associated star catalogue are provided in two tables available at the CDS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A gated graph transformer for protein complex structure quality assessment and its performance in CASP15

Abstract Motivation Proteins interact to form complexes to carry out essential biological functions. Computational methods such as AlphaFold-multimer have been developed to predict the quaternary structures of protein complexes. An important yet largely unsolved challenge in protein complex structure prediction is to accurately estimate the quality of predicted protein complex structures without any knowledge of the corresponding native structures. Such estimations can then be used to select high-quality predicted complex structures to facilitate biomedical research such as protein function analysis and drug discovery. Results In this work, we introduce a new gated neighborhood-modulating graph transformer to predict the quality of 3D protein complex structures. It incorporates node and edge gates within a graph transformer framework to control information flow during graph message passing. We trained, evaluated and tested the method (called DProQA) on newly-curated protein complex datasets before the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) and then blindly tested it in the 2022 CASP15 experiment. The method was ranked 3rd among the single-model quality assessment methods in CASP15 in terms of the ranking loss of TM-score on 36 complex targets. The rigorous internal and external experiments demonstrate that DProQA is effective in ranking protein complex structures. Availability and implementation The source code, data, and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/DProQA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic sea ice concentrations from special sensor microwave imager and advanced very high resolution radiometer satellite data

Nearly coincident data from the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) and the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) are used to compute and compare Arctic sea ice concentrations for different regions and times of the year. To help determine overall accuracies and to highlight sources of differences between passive microwave, optical wavelength, and thermal wavelength data, ice concentrations are estimated using two operational SSM/I ice concentration algorithms and with visible- and thermal-infrared wavelength AVHRR data. All algorithms capture the seasonal patterns of ice growth and melt. The ranges of differences fall within the general levels of uncertainty expected for each method and are similar to previous accuracy estimates. The estimated ice concentrations are all highly correlated, with uniform biases, although differences between individual pairs of observations can be large. On average, the NASA Team algorithm yielded 5% higher ice concentrations than the Bootstrap algorithm, while during nonmelt periods the two SSM/I algorithms agree to within 0.5%. These seasonal differences are consistent with the ways that the 19-GHz and 37-GHz microwave channels are used in the algorithms. When compared to the AVHRR-derived ice concentrations, the Team-algorithm results are more similar on average in terms of correlation and mean differences. However, the Team algorithm underestimates concentrations relative to the AVHRR output by 6% during cold months and overestimates by 3% during summer. Little seasonal difference exists between the Bootstrap and AVHRR results, with a mean difference of about 5%. Although the mean differences are less between the SSM/I-derived concentrations and concentrations estimated using AVHRR channel 1, the correlations appear substantially better between the SSM/I data and concentrations derived from AVHRR channel 4, particularly for the Team algorithm output.

Emery, W. J.↗

Hydrothermal liquefaction of wastewater-grown algae to produce synthetic aviation fuel: A combined experimental study and techno-economic assessment

Large-scale algae farms may someday become a consistent source of biomass feedstock for biofuels. Near-term supplies of algal biomass are available at certain water resource recovery facilities as algae cultivation is used as a method for nutrient recovery from specific effluent streams. Algae grown as a service shifts the value to the service rather than its sole use as a feedstock, which could enable the provision of algal biomass at low to no cost to biofuel producers. Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) can readily upgrade wet feedstock slurries, such as algae, to produce a carbon-enriched biocrude. The HTL biocrude can be hydrotreated and distilled, producing a variety of distillate fuels, including synthetic aviation fuel (SAF). We present a pathway, showing the experimental production of SAF from wastewater-grown algae via HTL, along with a techno-economic assessment to identify opportunities for process improvements. Critical quality attributes of the SAF, such as density, viscosity, surface tension, and freeze point, were estimated within the expected fuel experience ranges when compared against petroleum jet fuel. The average minimum fuel selling price of fuels from wastewater-grown algae for breakeven economics was $\$9.04$ per gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE). The sale of co-products such as struvite fertilizers and cement additives can add revenue to reduce the net cost. Ultimately, the selling price is influenced by the scale of the HTL processing facility. Adjusting estimations in the process scale, algae yield, and capital cost estimation can lower the price to $\$6.51$/GGE or raise it to $13.07/GGE.

Biofuels↗

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗

SILVERRUSH. XIV. Ly α Luminosity Functions and Angular Correlation Functions from 20,000 Ly α Emitters at z ∼ 2.2–7.3 from up to 24 deg 2 HSC-SSP and CHORUS Surveys: Linking the Postreionization Epoch to the Heart of Reionization

Abstract We present luminosity functions (LFs) and angular correlation functions (ACFs) derived from 18,960 Ly α emitters (LAEs) at z = 2.2−7.3 over a wide survey area of ≲24 deg 2 that are identified in the narrowband data of the HSC-SSP and CHORUS surveys. Confirming the large sample with 241 spectroscopically identified LAEs, we determine Ly α LFs and ACFs in the brighter luminosity range down to 0.5 L ⋆ , and confirm that our measurements are consistent with previous studies but offer significantly reduced statistical uncertainties. The improved precision of our ACFs allows us to clearly detect one-halo terms at some redshifts, and provides large-scale bias measurements that indicate host halo masses of ∼10 11 M ⊙ over z ≃ 2−7. By comparing our Ly α LF (ACF) measurements with reionization models, we estimate the neutral hydrogen fractions in the intergalactic medium to be x H i < 0.05 (= 0.06 − 0.03 + 0.12 ) at z = 5.7 and x H i = 0.1 5 − 0.08 + 0.10 ( 0.21 − 0.14 + 0.19 ), 0.1 8 − 0.12 + 0.14 , and 0.7 5 − 0.13 + 0.09 at z = 6.6, 7.0, and 7.3, respectively. Our findings suggest that the neutral hydrogen fraction remains relatively low, x H i ≲ 0.2, at z = 5−7, but increases sharply at z > 7, reaching x H i ∼ 0.9 by z ≃ 8−9, as indicated by recent JWST studies. The combination of our results from LAE observations with recent JWST observations suggests that the major epoch of reionization occurred at z ∼ 7−8, likely driven by the emergence of massive sources emitting significant ionizing photons.

Umeda, Hiroya (ORCID:0009000801675129)↗