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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining the Early Onset of Selected Large Solar Eruptions During the 2024 May Superstorm Episode

Recent studies indicate that solar flares are preceded by a period of above-ambient coronal heating, along with an increase in coronal X-ray emissions (Hudson et al. 2021). Despite being extremely common, the cause of these enhanced preflare emissions has not yet been understood. Here, our team examines in detail several of the large eruptions during the May 2024 superstorm period that resulted in significant geomagnetic disturbances. We use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), from the Hinode satellite, and from other sources. For several of the GOES X-class events on 8-10 May, we find that the preflare heating signature is more complex than in the case of flares occurring in less dynamic solar regions, but nonetheless distinct hot (>~ 10 MK) preflare coronal signatures are present. Understanding of the cause of such preflare activity prior to the onset of geoeffective solar eruptions is essential to developing an eventual robust prediction algorithm for warning of impending solar eruptions that threaten Space Weather consequences.

Alphonse C. Sterling↗
NASA NTRS1975

The size dependence of sublimation rates for interplanetary ice particles

The sublimation rates for water ice have been computed as a function of particle size for various solar distances. Because of the size dependence of the absorption and emission properties of the particles, a sublimation-rate minimum evolves whose depth and position are sensitive to the spectral-absorption properties of the particle in combination with the spectral distribution of solar radiation. As a consequence, a quasistable size of interplanetary ice particles is predicted which is independent of solar distance.

Patashnick, H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of ISS Power System Telemetry with Analytically Derived Data for Shadowed Cases

Accurate International Space Station (ISS) power prediction requires the quantification of solar array shadowing. Prior papers have discussed the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) ISS power system tool SPACE (System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) and its integrated shadowing algorithms. On-orbit telemetry has become available that permits the correlation of theoretical shadowing predictions with actual data. This paper documents the comparison of a shadowing metric (total solar array current) as derived from SPACE predictions and on-orbit flight telemetry data for representative significant shadowing cases. Images from flight video recordings and the SPACE computer program graphical output are used to illustrate the comparison. The accuracy of the SPACE shadowing capability is demonstrated for the cases examined.

Fincannon, H. James↗
NASA NTRS2016

Scientific Considerations for Future Spectroscopic Measurements from Space of Activity on the Sun

High-resolution UV and X-ray spectroscopy are important to understanding the origin and evolution of magnetic energy release in the solar atmosphere, as well as the subsequent evolution of heated plasma and accelerated particles. Electromagnetic radiation is observed from plasma heated to temperatures ranging from about 10 k K to above 10 MK, from accelerated electrons emitting photons primarily at X-ray energies, and from ions emitting in gamma rays. These observations require space-based instruments sensitive to emissions at wavelengths shorter than the near UV. This article reviews some recent observations with emphasis on solar eruptive events, the models that describe them, and the measurements they indicate are needed for substantial progress in the future. Specific examples are discussed demonstrating that imaging spectroscopy with a cadence of seconds or better is needed to follow, understand, and predict the evolution of solar activity. Critical to substantial progress is the combination of a judicious choice of UV, EUV, and soft X-ray imaging spectroscopy sensitive to the evolution of this thermal plasma combined with hard X-ray imaging spectroscopy sensitive to suprathermal electrons. The major challenge will be to conceive instruments that, within the bounds of possible technologies and funding, have the flexibility and field of view to obtain spectroscopic observations where and when events occur while providing an optimum balance of dynamic range, spectral resolution and range, and spatial resolution.

Holman, Gordon D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Short-term solar activity forecasting

A method of forecasting the level of activity of every active region on the surface of the Sun within one to three days is proposed in order to estimate the possibility of the occurrence of ionospheric disturbances and proton events. The forecasting method is a probability process based on statistics. In many of the cases, the accuracy in predicting the short term solar activity was in the range of 70%, although there were many false alarms.

Xie-Zhen, C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evidence for Asteroid Scattering and Distal Solar System Solids From Meteorite Paleomagnetism

Asteroid-sized bodies are predicted to have been scattered throughout the solar system following gravitational interactions with the giant planets. This process could have delivered water-rich small bodies to the inner solar system. However, evidence from the meteorite record supporting this scattering is limited due to difficulties in recovering the formation distance of meteorite parent bodies from laboratory measurements. Moreover, ancient millimeter-sized solids that formed in the inner solar system (calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions and chondrules) have also been proposed to have migrated throughout the solar system, which could have been key to their survival. Our understanding of the driving mechanisms, distances and timings involved in this motion is also restricted for the same reasons. Here, we address these limitations by recovering the formation distance of the parent asteroid of the Tagish Lake meteorite from measurements of its natural remanent magnetization. We find that this meteorite experienced an ancient field intensity <0.15 µT. Accounting for the average effect of a tilted parent body rotation axis and possible uncertainties associated with the remanence acquisition mechanism, this result argues that the Tagish Lake parent body formed at >8 - 13 AU, suggesting this body originates from the distal solar system. Tagish Lake came to Earth from the asteroid belt, which, combined with our recovered formation distance, suggests that some small bodies travelled large distances throughout the solar system. Moreover, Tagish Lake contains calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions and chondrules, indicating that these solids were capable of traveling to the distal solar system within just a few million years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Experimental and Numerical Correlation of Gravity Sag in Solar Sail Quality Membranes

Solar sails are among the most studied members of the ultra-lightweight and inflatable (Gossamer) space structures family due to their potential to provide propellentless propulsion. They are comprised of ultra-thin membrane panels that, to date, have proven very difficult to experimentally characterize and numerically model due to their reflectivity and flexibility, and the effects of gravity sag and air damping. Numerical models must be correlated with experimental measurements of sub-scale solar sails to verify that the models can be scaled up to represent full-sized solar sails. In this paper, the surface shapes of five horizontally supported 25 micron thick aluminized Kapton membranes were measured to a 1.0 mm resolution using photogrammetry. Several simple numerical models closely match the experimental data, proving the ability of finite element simulations to predict actual behavior of solar sails.

Black, Jonathan T.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The onset of the solar active cycle 22

There is a great deal of interest in being able to predict the main characteristics of a solar activity cycle (SAC). One would like to know, for instance, how large the amplitude (R sub m) of a cycle is likely to be, i.e., the annual mean of the sunspot numbers at the maximum of SAC. Also, how long a cycle is likely to last, i.e., its period. It would also be interesting to be able to predict the details, like how steep the ascending phase of a cycle is likely to be. Questions like these are of practical importance to NASA in planning the launch schedule for the low altitude, expensive spacecrafts like the Hubble Space Telescope, the Space Station, etc. Also, one has to choose a proper orbit, so that once launched the threat of an atmospheric drag on the spacecraft is properly taken into account. Cosmic ray data seem to indicate that solar activity cycle 22 will surpass SAC 21 in activity. The value of R sub m for SAC 22 may approach that of SAC 19. It would be interesting to see whether this prediction is borne out. Researchers are greatly encouraged to proceed with the development of a comprehensive prediction model which includes information provided by cosmic ray data.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Limits to the fractionation of isotopes in the solar wind as observed with SOHO/CELIAS/MTOF

Observations of isotope fractionation in the solar wind for the Mg and Ne elements are reported on the basis of measurements performed by the mass time of flight (MTOF) sensor of the charge, element, and isotope analysis system (CELIAS) onboard the SOHO spacecraft. Their isotopic abundance ratios are shown to vary by (0.8+/-0.6) amu in the solar wind bulk velocity range from 350 km/s to 650 km/s. A good correlation is noticed between the isotope fractionation and the elemental fractionation 4He/1H in the solar wind. The results were discussed in the context of recent theoretical models, which predict isotope fractionation in the solar wind by variable Coulomb friction in several solar wind regimes.

Kallenbach, R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

LDEF environment modeling updates

An updated gas dynamics model for gas interactions around the LDEF is presented that includes improved scattering algorithms. The primary improvement is more accurate predictions of surface fluxes in the wake region. The code used is the Integrated Spacecraft Environments Model (ISEM). Additionally, initial results of a detailed ISEM prediction model of the Solar Array Passive LDEF Experiment (SAMPLE), A0171, is presented. This model includes details of the A0171 geometry and outgassing characteristics of the many surfaces on the experiment. The detailed model includes the multiple scattering that exists between the ambient atmosphere, LDEF outgassing, and atomic oxygen erosion products. Predictions are made for gas densities, surface fluxes and deposition at three different time periods of the LDEF mission.

Gordon, Tim↗
NASA NTRS2004

Solar Control on Jupiter's Equatorial X-ray Emissions: 26-29 November 2003 XMM-Newton Observation

During November 26-29,2003 XMM-Newton observed X-ray emissions from Jupiter for 69 hours. The 0.7-2.0 keV X-ray disk of Jupiter is observed to be brightest at the subsolar point, and limb darkening is seen in the 0.2-2.0 keV and 0.7-2.0 keV images. We present simultaneous lightcurves of Jovian equatorial X-rays and solar X-rays measured by the GOES, SOHO/SEM, and TIMED/SEE satellites. The solar X-ray flares occurring on the Jupiter-facing side of the Sun are matched by corresponding features in the Jovian X- rays. These results support the hypothesis that X-ray emissions from Jovian low-latitudes are solar X-rays scattered and fluoresced from the planet's upper atmosphere, and confirm that the Sun directly controls the non-auroral X-rays fiom Jupiter's disk. Our study suggest that Jovian equatorial X-rays; during certain Jupiter phase, can be used to predict the occurrence of solar flare on the hemisphere of the Sun that is invisible to space weather satellites.

Bhardwaj, Anil↗
NASA NTRS2005

MODEL CORRELATION STUDY OF A RETRACTABLE BOOM FOR A SOLAR SAIL SPACECRAFT

To realize design concepts, predict dynamic behavior and develop appropriate control strategies for high performance operation of a solar-sail spacecraft, we developed a simple analytical model that represents dynamic behavior of spacecraft with various sizes. Since motion of the vehicle is dominated by retractable booms that support the structure, our study concentrates on developing and validating a dynamic model of a long retractable boom. Extensive tests with various configurations were conducted for the 30 Meter, light-weight, retractable, lattice boom at NASA MSFC that is structurally and dynamically similar to those of a solar-sail spacecraft currently under construction. Experimental data were then compared with the corresponding response of the analytical model. Though mixed results were obtained, the analytical model emulates several key characteristics of the boom. The paper concludes with a detailed discussion of issues observed during the study.

Adetona, O.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Prediciting Solar Activity: Today, Tomorrow, Next Year

Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to space weather effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less fuel can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms. Predicting those events that will affect our assets in space includes a solar prediction and how the radiation will propagate through the solar system. I will talk our need for solar activity predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William Dean↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Flat-plate solar-collector performance evaluation with a solar simulator as a basis for collector selection and performance prediction

This paper reports the measured thermal efficiency and evaluation of 23 collectors which differ according to absorber material (copper, aluminum, steel), absorber coating (nonselective black paint, selective copper oxide, selective black nickel, selective black chrome), type of glazing material (glass, Tedlar, Lexan, anti-reflection glass), the use of honeycomb material and the use of vacuum to prevent thermal convection losses. The collectors are given performance rankings based on noon-hour solar conditions and all-day solar conditions. The determination with the simulator of an all-day collector performance is made possible by tests at different incident angles. The solar performance rankings are made based on whether the collector is to be used for pool heating, hot water, absorption air conditioning, heating, or for a solar Rankine machine.

Simon, F. F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Solar control of the upper atmosphere of Triton

If the upper atmosphere and ionosphere of Triton are controlled by precipitation of electrons from Neptune's magnetosphere as previously proposed, Triton could have the only ionosphere in the solar system not controlled by solar radiation. However, a new model of Triton's atmosphere, in which only solar radiation is present, predicts a large column of carbon atoms. With an assumed, but reasonable, rate of charge transfer between N2(+) and C, a peak C(+) abundance results that is close to the peak electron densities measured by Voyager in Triton's ionosphere. These results suggest that Triton's upper atmospheric chemistry may thus be solar-controlled. Measurement of key reaction rate constants, currently unknown or highly uncertain at Triton's low temperatures, would help to clarify the chemical and physical processes occurring in Triton's atmosphere.

Lyons, James R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Phase for Space Weather

As we move into the declining phase of solar cycle 25, the sunspot number is going down but space weather impacts are not disappearing. Solar energetic particle events, large x-ray flares, and geomagnetic storms are still happening and the declining phase will bring a different balance of hazards. The need for space weather science, space weather applications, and an interface between research, application, and stakeholder communities has not passed. Observations and insights from solar cycle 25 will continue to help us prepare for solar cycle 26, so that we approach the next solar maximum with better predictions, better understanding of outcomes, and a stronger community enabling more confident mitigation and clearer outreach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Coordinated and Cooperative Voltage Control for Systems With High Penetration of PV

In this paper, we propose a predictive coordinated and cooperative voltage control method in a power distribution system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. First, an integrated coordinated voltage control of voltage regulators (VRs) tap positions and cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output from PV inverters are used to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Next, solar power forecasting is applied to predict voltage changes, which are used to set the VR tap positions and capacitor switch status to prevent large voltage fluctuations. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is then achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on a modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high penetration of PVs using real measurement data and compared with the base case. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the integrated voltage control, as well as the enhancement from the predictive control through solar power forecasting-enabled voltage change estimates. Comparison to previous work in the literature shows significant improvement in terms of voltage deviation and reduction in excessive tap changes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗