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NASA NTRS2008

Prediction Model for Relativistic Electrons at Geostationary Orbit

We developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (greater than 2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/interplanetary magnetic field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is stable and incredibly high (about 0.9). The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible.

Khazanov, George V.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Interpretive Tools for Analysis of Coronal Images

Contents include list of publications resulting from grant: Magneto-Hydrodynamic Model of the Solar Corona and Interplanetary Medium. Coronal magnetic field topology and source of fast solar wind. Geophysical Importance of Global Magnetic Field Geometry and Density Distribution in Solar Wind Modeling. Empirical Model of the Corona-Solar Wind with Multiple Current Sheets. Model of the Solar Wind and its Comparison with ULYSSES. Physical properties of a coronal hole from a coronal diagnostic spectrometer, Mauna Loa Coronagraph, and LASCO observations during the Whole Sun Month. Semi-Empirical 2-D MHD Model of the Solar corona and Solar Wind: Energy Flow in the Corona. Source Region of High and Low Speed Wind during the Spartan. Three-dimensional coronal density structure. Cone Model for Halo CME's: Application to Space Weather Forecasting.

Ofman, Leon↗

NASA NTRS2005

Pre-Launch GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a new instrument planned for GOES-R that will greatly improve storm hazard nowcasting and increase warning lead time day and night. Daytime detection of lightning is a particularly significant technological advance given the fact that the solar illuminated cloud-top signal can exceed the intensity of the lightning signal by a factor of one hundred. Our approach is detailed across three broad themes which include: Data Processing Algorithm Readiness, Forecast Applications, and Radiance Data Mining. These themes address how the data will be processed and distributed, and the algorithms and models for developing, producing, and using the data products. These pre-launch risk reduction activities will accelerate the operational and research use of the GLM data once GOES-R begins on-orbit operations. The GLM will provide unprecedented capabilities for tracking thunderstorms and earlier warning of impending severe and hazardous weather threats. By providing direct information on lightning initiation, propagation, extent, and rate, the GLM will also capture the updraft dynamics and life cycle of convective storms, as well as internal ice precipitation processes. The GLM provides information directly from the heart of the thunderstorm as opposed to cloud-top only. Nowcasting applications enabled by the GLM data will expedite the warning and response time of emergency management systems, improve the dispatch of electric power utility repair crews, and improve airline routing around thunderstorms thereby improving safety and efficiency, saving fuel and reducing delays. The use of GLM data will assist the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Forest Service in quickly detecting lightning ground strikes that have a high probability of causing fires. Finally, GLM data will help assess the role of thunderstorms and deep convection in global climate, and will improve regional air quality and global chemistry/climate modeling. The GLM has a robust design that benefits and improves upon its strong heritage of NASA-developed LEO predecessors, the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). GLM will have a substantially larger number of pixels within the focal plane, two lens systems, and multiple Real-Time Event Processors REPS for on-board event detection and data compression to provide continuous observations of the Americas and adjacent oceans.

Goodman, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Discovery and New Frontiers Project Budget Analysis Tool

The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs are multi-project, uncoupled programs that currently comprise 13 missions in phases A through F. The ability to fly frequent science missions to explore the solar system is the primary measure of program success. The program office uses a Budget Analysis Tool to perform "what-if" analyses and compare mission scenarios to the current program budget, and rapidly forecast the programs ability to meet their launch rate requirements. The tool allows the user to specify the total mission cost (fixed year), mission development and operations profile by phase (percent total mission cost and duration), launch vehicle, and launch date for multiple missions. The tool automatically applies inflation and rolls up the total program costs (in real year dollars) for comparison against available program budget. Thus, the tool allows the user to rapidly and easily explore a variety of launch rates and analyze the effect of changes in future mission or launch vehicle costs, the differing development profiles or operational durations of a future mission, or a replan of a current mission on the overall program budget. Because the tool also reports average monthly costs for the specified mission profile, the development or operations cost profile can easily be validate against program experience for similar missions. While specifically designed for predicting overall program budgets for programs that develop and operate multiple missions concurrently, the basic concept of the tool (rolling up multiple, independently-budget lines) could easily be adapted to other applications.

Newhouse, Marilyn E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗

NASA NTRS2014

First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) − E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

Sun: corona↗

NASA NTRS1975

Energy: An annotated bibliography

This bibliography is the first update of a previous energy bibliography dated August 1974. It contains approximately 3,300 selected references on energy and energy related topics from bibliographic sources dated August 1974 through December 1974. The references are arranged by date, with the latest works first, in subject categories. (1) Energy and power - general; resources, supply/demand, and forecasting; policy, legislation, and regulation; research and development, environment; consumption and economics; conservation; and systems analysis. (2) Energy and power sources - general; fossil fuels; hydrogen and other fuels; organic wastes and waste heat; nuclear; geothermal; solar; wind; ocean/water; magnetohydrodynamics and electrohydrodynamics; and gas and steam turbines. (3) Energy and power storage and transmission.

Blow, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

Cyr, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Atlas/Centaur-SOHO Pre-Launch News Conference

Live coverage of a pre-launch news conference on the Atlas/Centaur SOHO mission is presented. George Diller, NASA Public Affairs, introduces the panel. Floyd Curington, NASA Launch Manager, Kennedy Space Center, presents countdown activities. Pat Symons, Launch Vehicle Manager, NASA Lewis Research Center, analyzes the time duration from liftoff to spacecraft separation. Fabrizio Felici, SOHO Mission Director European Space Agency (ESA), explains the important features of SOHO, which includes a payload of 650 kilos and 12 major instruments with multisensors. Ken Sizemore, International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Project Manager Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), talks about the successful international collaboration between the ESA and NASA. Joel Tumbiolo, Launch Weather Officer United States Air Force (USAF, presented the weather forecast. SOHO was launched aboard an Atlas II rocket on November 23, 1995. The news conference ends with a brief question and answer period.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2002

Monitoring of Observation Errors from Satellite Ozone Instruments in Assimilation

Ozone distributions derived from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instruments and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) have been assimilated in near-real time at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office since January 2000. Observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals are the differences between the incoming ozone data and the co-located short-term model forecast. They are routinely produced and monitored in the assimilation process. Using examples from the NOAA-14 and NOAA-16 SBUV/2 and the EP-TOMS instruments, it is demonstrated that the monitoring of time series of O-F residual statistics is an effective method of identifying time-dependent changes in the observation-error characteristics of ozone. In addition, the data assimilation system was used to assist the validation of updated calibration coefficients for the NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instrument. This assimilation-based monitoring work will be extended to ozone data from instruments on new satellites: Envisat EOS, Aqua, and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) Using GPS Measurements to Identify Global Ionospheric Storms in Near Real-Time

The solar wind interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere, eventually dissipating energy into the ionosphere and atmosphere. As a terminator, the ionosphere responds to magnetic storms, which is very important in understanding the energy coupling process between the Sun and the Earth and in forecasting space weather changes.The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility. Based on these measurements, global ionospheric TEC maps are generated with time resolution of from 5 minutes to hours. Using these maps, we can analyze the global evolution of ionospheric storms on temporal and spatial scales, which have been dificult to study before. We find that for certain types of storms (such as TID-driven), it is possible to identify them near onset and issue warning signals during the early stages. Main attention has been paid on northern hemispheric winter storms. Their common features and physical mechanisms are being investigated.

solar wind magnetospheres GPS ionosphere atmospher↗

DOE OSTI2020

CRADA Final Report: Open Microgrid Platform

Current microgrid control technology is mostly proprietary, expensive, and inflexible. An open-source, vendor-neutral, publish-subscribe controller will significantly lower the barrier to entry for new technologies and market entrants: inverter, battery, and load control manufacturers; cloud and services providers; and energy aggregators. An OpenFMB controller can significantly reduce the acquisition, integration, and ongoing operating and maintenance costs and increase revenue opportunities for energy producers and consumers. It allows distributed energy resource (DER) owners to replace individual DER components as richer-function, lower-cost devices become available or to incorporate new forecast and optimization algorithms as they are developed. A standard, secure, full-function DER field controller will also provide a low-cost means for grid operators to effectively manage the variability and uncertainty of solar photovoltaics (PV). Under the terms of this CRADA, ORNL has worked with Open Energy Solutions (OES) to advance the transition of ORNL’s existing open-source microgrid controller into a platform geared toward mainstream implementation. Using a more prevalent and memory-safe programming language, Rust, OES has converted ORNL’s current generation on-grid optimization into an application more suitable for industry use. The results of the ported optimization were analyzed by inputting the same arguments in both the current-generation and next-generation optimizers and verifying that the results were equivalent.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Auroral ovals versus flare ribbons: Optical footprints of explosive magnetic field reconfiguration in Earth’s magnetosphere and the Sun’s corona

Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.

V. M. Uritskiy↗

NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Clouds at/near the 2007 - 2009 Solar Minimum: Frequency of Occurrence and Some Unusual Properties

Magnetic clouds (MCs) have been identified for the period 2007 2009 (at/near the recent solar minimum) from Wind data, then confirmed through MC parameter fitting using a force-free model. A dramatic increase in the frequency of occurrence of these events took place from the two early years of 2007 (with five MCs) and 2008 (one MC) compared to 2009 (12 MCs). This pattern approximately mirrors the occurrence-frequency profile that was observed over a three-year interval 12 years earlier, with eight events in 1995, four in 1996, and 17 in 1997, but decreased overall by a factor of 0.62 in number. However, the average estimated axial field strength taken over all of the 18 events of 2007 - 2009 (called the "recent period" here) was only 11.0 nT, whereas |BO| for the 29 events of 1995 - 1997 (called the "earlier period" ) was 16.5 nT. This 33% average drop in |BO| is more or less consistent with the decreased three-year average interplanetary magnetic field intensity between these two periods, which shows a 23% drop. In the earlier period, the MCs were clearly of mixed types but predominantly of the South-to-North type, whereas those in the recent period are almost exclusively the North-to-South type; this change is consistent with global solar field changes predicted by Bothmer and Rust (Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 99, 139, 1997). As we have argued in earlier work (Lepping and Wu, J. Geophys. Res. 112, A10103, 2007), this change should make it possible to carry out (accurate short-term) magnetic storm forecasting by predicting the latter part of an MC from the earlier part, using a good MC parameter-fitting model with real-time data from a spacecraft at L1, for example. The recent set s average duration is 15.2 hours, which is a 27% decrease compared to that of the earlier set, which had an average duration of 20.9 hours. In fact, all physical aspects of the recent MC set are shown to drop with respect to the earlier set; e.g., as well as the average internal magnetic field drop, the recent set had a somewhat low average speed of 379 km/s (5% drop), and the average diameter had a 24% drop. Hence, compared to the earlier set, the recent set consists of events that are smaller, slightly slower, and weaker in every respect (and fewer in number), but in a relative sense the two three-year sets have similar frequency-of-occurrence profiles. It is also interesting that the two sets have almost the same average axial inclinations, i.e., axial latitude approx. = 31deg (in GSE). These MC characteristics are compared to relevant solar features and their changes. A preliminary assessment of the statistics on possible shocks and pressure pulses upstream of these recent MCs yields the following: About 28% of the MCs, at most, had shocks, and 33% had shocks and/or pressure pulses. These are low values, since typically the percentage of cases with shocks is about 50%, and the percentage with shocks and/or pressure pulses is usually about 75%.

Lepping. R. P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

USAID Colombia Young Leaders Workforce Training Program Action Plans: Forecasting Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia

As part of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Young Leaders Workforce Training Program in Colombia, the Association of Renewable Energies Colombia (SER) participants leveraged their training and professional experience to develop an action plan for modeling the projected adoption of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) out to 2050 for the city of Barranquilla, Colombia. This case study provides an overview of the key activities and outcomes of the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen™) Colombia project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

Moorhead, Althea V.↗