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At least 613 records · Page 34

Cellulose nanofibrils and nanocrystals in confined flow: Single-particle dynamics to collective alignment revealed through scanning small-angle x-ray scattering and numerical simulations

Nanostructured materials made through flow-assisted assembly of proteinaceous or polymeric nanosized fibrillar building blocks are promising contenders for a family of high-performance biocompatible materials in a wide variety of applications. Optimization of these processes relies on improving our knowledge of the physical mechanisms from nano- to macroscale and especially understanding the alignment of elongated nanoparticles in flows. Here, we study the full projected orientation distributions of cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs) and nanofibrils (CNFs) in confined flow using scanning microbeam SAXS. For CNCs, we further compare with a simulated system of dilute Brownian ellipsoids, which agrees well at dilute concentrations. However, increasing CNC concentration to a semidilute regime results in locally arranged domains called tactoids, which aid in aligning the CNC at low shear rates, but limit alignment at higher rates. Similarly, shear alignment of CNF at semidilute conditions is also limited owing to probable bundle or flock formation of the highly entangled nanofibrils. Finally, this work provides a quantitative comparison of full projected orientation distributions of elongated nanoparticles in confined flow and provides an important stepping stone towards predicting and controlling processes to create nanostructured materials on an industrial scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aluminum Ultra-conductors for Energy-Efficient Aerospace Busbar Applications (Abstract)

In this project, we will develop aluminum ultra-conductors with graphene additives demonstrating enhanced electrical conductivity at 90 °C compared to electric grade aluminum alloy AA1100 (43% IACS at 90 °C). While ultra-conductivity has been developed in copper and copper alloys, it is yet to be reported extensively in aluminum-based materials. This project will scale initial work done at PNNL on aluminum ultra-conductors using shear-assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPETM), a novel solid phase processing technique. Ultra-conductors are an emerging class of composites, comprised of a metal substrate with small quantities of nanocrystalline additives such as graphene or carbon nanotubes that demonstrate enhanced conductivity at relevant operating temperatures. Aluminum ultra-conductors can improve efficiency and power density while reducing the demand for copper in a wide range of applications, such as power transmission cables and electric motors. Busbars are an important component in aerospace systems that require lightweight and high-current power distribution including both future electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircrafts and current aircraft electrical systems. We will accelerate aluminum ultra-conductor composite formulation development using combinatorial synthesis and testing methods aided by process/microstructure modeling, developed previously at PNNL. Eaton will test the properties of the ShAPE aluminum ultra-conductor feedstock (used to make the busbars) in relevant operating conditions (20 – 90 °C), predict the improvement in busbar performance when manufactured with ultra-conductors over commercial conductors (such as AA1100), and perform technoeconomic analysis to evaluate the potential for commercialization of ShAPE aluminum ultra-conductors. The project is expected to have a budget of $\$375$K, with $\$300$K in federal funding and $\$75$K in-kind cost-share contribution from Eaton over a period of performance of 24 months. Of the $\$300$K of federal funds, $\$140$K is allocated for CRADA activities that generate intellectual property (IP), and the remaining $\$160$K is reserved for modeling, material testing, characterization, travel, and reporting-related activities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Do Programmers Prefer Predictable Expressions in Code?

Source code is a form of human communication, albeit one where the information shared between the programmers reading and writing the code is constrained by the requirement that the code executes correctly. Programming languages are more syntactically constrained than natural languages, but they are also very expressive, allowing a great many different ways to express even very simple computations. Still, code written by developers is highly predictable, and many programming tools have taken advantage of this phenomenon, relying on language model surprisal as a guiding mechanism. Additionally, while surprisal has been validated as a measure of cognitive load in natural language, its relation to human cognitive processes in code is still poorly understood. In this paper, we explore the relationship between surprisal and programmer preference at a small granularity—do programmers prefer more predictable expressions in code? Using meaning-preserving transformations, we produce equivalent alternatives to developer-written code expressions and run a corpus study on Java and Python projects. In general, language models rate the code expressions developers choose to write as more predictable than these transformed alternatives. Then, we perform two human subject studies asking participants to choose between two equivalent snippets of Java code with different surprisal scores (one original and transformed). We find that programmers do prefer more predictable variants, and that stronger language models like the transformer align more often and more consistently with these preferences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

In-Situ Laser-Induced-Desorption-Spectroscopy Diagnostic Deployment on the Linear Plasma Device CSDX

A calibrated laser induced desorption diagnostic (LIDS) concept is developed under this award for application to fusion relevant plasma materials interactions studies. Small areal amounts of hydrogenic release from a deuterium filled PMI target are measured and quantified when irradiated by a LID flash heat event on the target surface. Good success was demonstrated by this project with the PISCES-E rf plasma device at UCSD by fully quantified measurement and removal of D from W-D co-deposit layers in experiments. However, adapting the LIDS technique to D plasma exposed W targets in the linear plasma CSDX device, now labelled PISCES-Rf, was prone to several technical challenges ranging from target line of sight access, laser focusing, and loss of optical spectroscopic signal strength in the larger PISCES-Rf vacuum system. The results are summarized in this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Wellbore Fracture Imaging Using Inflow Detection Measurements

One of the most striking measurements taken during DOE’s EGS Collab project at the 4850-foot depth location was the so-called ‘sewer cam’, which enabled direct visualization of the flow of water into the production well through fractures during the stimulation. The ability to see directly which fractures were flowing and (roughly) how much was a breakthrough in understanding the topology of the created fracture network. Achieving this kind of fracture flow imaging at FORGE would be more challenging because of the 225°C temperature, but equally or even more valuable if it could be achieved. In 2017, a joint project between Sandia and Stanford developed a downhole tool concept to measure the enthalpy of multiphase fluid entering a geothermal well from individual fractures (Gao et al., 2017). For the FORGE project, measuring enthalpy is of less interest because the fluid is expected to be single-phase liquid water. However, the foundation of the device was the measurement of chloride ion concentration, which could form the basis for a direct measurement of inflow from fractures. During the 2017 project, this novel chloride sensing system was implemented into a laboratory test instrument, and we confirmed the capability of the system to measure the ion concentration of fluid entering a model wellbore through a small entry port. The wellbore was a 6-inch diameter model well, and the port was approximately 0.08 inch (2mm) in diameter. The device could measure the chloride concentration accurately even when the well was flowing in a bubbly flow. Given its accuracy, the tool should be able to identify locations of water entering the wellbore even if the ion concentration differs only slightly from that of the water in the well. It is likely that different fractures may flow slightly different chloride concentrations, which would make it feasible to detect individual fractures as well as to estimate the volume of their flow. Ultimately, we could also recognize different fractures flowing back significantly different ion concentrations after fracturing in the FORGE wells. This could be realized by adding different ions in the fracturing fluids in different fractures created at different stages of stimulation (and modifying the tool to include different ion specificity). Sandia’s tool was shown during the study to have the capability to withstand the 225°C temperature, and the electrochemical sensing elements were tested in the laboratory to 225°C at 1500 psia for 24 hours. An early implementation of the fully integrated downhole electrochemical tool, including high-temperature electronics, robust housing, and wireline truck interface, had previously been constructed and tested successfully at Sandia; thus, hardware development tasks focused on advancing the technology readiness level (TRL) of this promising technology for FORGE deployment, rather than on developing a new scientific basis for its operation. The data collection electronics in this tool allowed for several other sensors (pressure, temperature, flow spinner) to be implemented in parallel as well. The research was a new collaboration between Stanford and Sandia to modify and refine the tool for FORGE deployment, to make the downhole measurements, and to characterize the evolving fractures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Discovery of an Ultra-faint Stellar System near the Magellanic Clouds with the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey

We report the discovery of a new ultra-faint stellar system found near the Magellanic Clouds in the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey. This new system, DELVE J0155−6815 (DELVE 2), is located at a heliocentric distance of D ⊙ = 71 ± 4 kpc, which places it at a 3D physical separation of 12 ± 3 kpc from the center of the Small Magellanic Cloud and from the center of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). DELVE 2 is identified as a resolved overdensity of old (τ > 13.3 Gyr) and metal-poor ( dex) stars with a projected half-light radius of and an absolute magnitude of . The size and luminosity of DELVE 2 are consistent with both the population of recently discovered ultra-faint globular clusters and the smallest ultra-faint dwarf galaxies. However, its photometrically derived age and metallicity would place it among the oldest and most metal-poor globular clusters in the Magellanic system. In the absence of spectroscopic measurements of the system’s metallicity dispersion and internal kinematics, we are unable to conclusively classify this system at this time. DELVE 2 is detected in Gaia DR2 with a clear proper-motion signal, with multiple blue horizontal-branch stars near the centroid of the system with proper motions consistent with the systemic mean. We measure the system proper motion to be = mas yr−1. We compare the spatial position and proper motion of DELVE 2 with simulations of the accreted satellite population of the LMC and find that it is very likely to be associated with the LMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a complete cycle typically lasting almost 2.5 years, this quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is arguably the most predictable mode of atmospheric variability that is not linked to the changing seasons. Here, the QBO affects climate phenomena outside the tropical stratosphere, including ozone transport, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and its high predictability could enable better forecasts of these phenomena if models can accurately represent the coupling processes. Climate and forecasting models are increasingly able to simulate stratospheric oscillations resembling the QBO, but exhibit common systematic errors such as weak amplitude in the lowermost tropical stratosphere. Uncertainties about the waves that force the oscillation, particularly the momentum fluxes from small-scale gravity waves excited by deep convection, make its simulation challenging. Improved representation of the processes governing the QBO is expected to lead to better forecasts of the oscillation and its impacts, increased understanding of unusual events such as the two QBO disruptions observed since 2016, and more reliable future projections of QBO behaviour under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low Cost, High Volume, Carbon Fiber Precursor for Plasma Oxidation

Light weighting with carbon fiber is critical to improving the energy efficiency of wind turbines, airplanes, and automobiles, but the high cost of carbon fiber continues to limit market growth and applications. Half of this cost is in the raw materials. For the carbon fiber market to reach the next level of adoption, the cost of both the raw materials and conversion must be reduced. This project considered the combination of low-cost, textile-grade precursors combined with the increased efficiency of plasma oxidation to greatly reduce the cost of carbon fiber. The primary objective of this project was to make industrial-grade carbon fiber (550 ksi tensile strength, 35 Msi tensile modulus) from textile-grade PAN precursors, something that cannot be achieved with conventional oxidation and to date has not been achieved with any technology. To accomplish this, the project team iteratively optimized the process conditions in the plasma oxidation and carbonization stages to maximize the tensile properties of the resultant carbon fibers. This involved implementing experimental designs for both stages, whereby process conditions (e.g. temperature) were varied and correlated to fiber properties. Samples of oxidized PAN fibers (OPFs) were prepared using a small pilot-scale plasma oxidation oven at 4XTechnologies (4XT). The thermal, chemical, and physical properties of OPF samples were analyzed by the University of Tennessee (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The OPF samples were then converted to carbon fiber by subsequent low- and high-temperature carbonization using a lab-scale furnace at ORNL. The resultant carbon fibers were tested for tensile strength also at ORNL, and the results were fed back into the experimental design. Of the hundreds of carbon fiber samples produced over the course of the project, the best sample had an average break strength of 479 ksi and modulus of 33 Msi. While the best tensile properties achieved fell short of the final project targets of 550 ksi for break strength and 35 Msi for modulus, the team demonstrated the potential to produce industrial-grade carbon fiber using textile-grade precursors. The best performing fiber samples had tensile properties that are 87% of the goal for tensile strength and 94% of the goal for tensile modulus. With additional optimization work, it is likely that the targets could be achieved, since only a fraction of the process parameter space was explored during this project. 4XT and its affiliate (4M) have already secured funding through private equity, and there is a CRADA (Cooperative Research and Development Agreement) project currently underway with the Carbon Fiber Technology Center (CFTF) at ORNL to continue this research. Additionally, while not an original goal of the project, the carbon fibers for most samples had diameters >8.5μm. This is considerably larger than commercially available carbon fiber products, which can impart unique properties to the composites (e.g. increased compressive strength) and decrease manufacturing costs even further. Moreover, these fibers were oxidized with plasma oxidation using residence times ranging <60mins, which would be considered fast for normal diameter fibers, but it is as much as 5x faster when factoring in the diameter of the fibers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of an Ultrahigh-bandwidth Phase Contrast Imaging System for detection of electron scale turbulence and Gigahertz Radio-Frequency Waves

The study of waves and turbulence is vital to the development of future reactor-grade plasma devices developed in the quest for fusion energy. These fluctuations are responsible for moving heat and particles across the magnetic field, and a predictive understanding of them is needed to achieve the density and temperature required to sustain a plasma fusion reaction. While many techniques have been developed for measuring waves and fluctuations, every measurement method has limitations. There are relatively few techniques for measuring very high frequency fluctuations, such as radio frequency waves injected to heat the plasma, unstable waves driven by suprathermal particles, or short wavelength electrostatic waves driven by electron temperature or density gradients. The present project builds upon the proven phase contrast imaging (PCI) technique to extend the response of the diagnostic by orders of magnitude in frequency and almost a factor of ten in spatial resolution. PCI provides a measurement of electron density based on small angle scattering of a CO-2 laser beam by using optical techniques to render a phase shift as an intensity change on a detector. Due to the telecommunications revolution, technological development by manufacturers has focused on components in the near -infrared, so that high- quality lasers and detectors at 1.55 µm are readily available. Shifting PCI design to a new, shorter wavelength has numerous advantages and challenges. Similar detector performance is available with room-temperature arrays with GHz bandwidth, while the detector arrays for 10.6 µm required liquid nitrogen cooling and were therefore limited to a bandwidth of about 1 MHz. Shifting to a shorter wavelength reduces the angle at which the laser beam scatters off of plasma waves, allowing more such scattered components to pass through the aperture of the vacuum vessel port and be collected by the PCI, which increases the spatial resolution. Concomitant with these benefits, various questions of performance arise. At shorter laser wave- length, the sensitivity to mirror and lens quality is increased, the contribution of the laser to the overall system noise is increased, and the sensitivity to vibrations is increased. The custom optical components at the heart of the PCI technique were required to be properly scaled for the shorter wavelength, so fabrication technologies needed to be explored. This project was designed to show that a low noise, high response PCI system at 1.55 µm could be constructed and operated, and then to quantify potential issues to allow extrapolation to a full-size production system providing physics measurements on a large plasma device. The first stage, producing the custom optical component called a Phase Plate, was successfully achieved using two methods. First, an easily reproduced masking and coating technique was able to produce good phase plates with the required parameters. Second, a nanofabrication technique was found to produce extremely high quality phase plates at a competitive price. The PCI constructed with the new phase plates and 1.55 µm laser was found to provide excellent wavelength measurements with the theoretically expected response. The sensitivity to optical surface quality was found to be in line with previous measurements at 10.6 µm. The observed signal-to-noise ratio was similar to the theoretically expected value. The effect of vibrations on PCI was studied with the first measurement of the effect of beam motion on PCI response and comparison to theory, allowing for a quantitative prediction of the effect of vibrations on a production PCI system and the requirements for improved beam stabilization. PCI is an extremely cost-effective method to provide a low noise, absolutely calibrated measurement of plasma fluctuations across a wide spatial scale. This project has shown that a 1.55 µm PCI using modern techniques and components is less expensive than the 10.6 µm PCI of a few years ago, with the largest savings in phase plate fabrication and the infrared detector array.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The CHIMERAS project: design framework for the Collisionless HIgh-beta Magnetized Experiment Researching Astrophysical Systems

From the near-Earth solar wind to the intracluster medium of galaxy clusters, collisionless, high-beta, magnetized plasmas pervade our universe. Energy and momentum transport from large-scale fields and flows to small-scale motions of plasma particles is ubiquitous in these systems, but a full picture of the underlying physical mechanisms remains elusive. The transfer is often mediated by a turbulent cascade of Alfvénic fluctuations as well as a variety of kinetic instabilities; these processes tend to be multi-scale and/or multi-dimensional, which makes them difficult to study using spacecraft missions and numerical simulations alone. Meanwhile, existing laboratory devices struggle to produce the collisionless, high ion beta (β i ≳ 1), magnetized plasmas across the range of scales necessary to address these problems. As envisioned in recent community planning documents, it is therefore important to build a next generation laboratory facility to create a β i ≳ 1, collisionless, magnetized plasma in the laboratory for the first time. A working group has been formed and is actively defining the necessary technical requirements to move the facility towards a construction-ready state. Recent progress includes the development of target parameters and diagnostic requirements as well as the identification of a need for source-target device geometry. As the working group is already leading to new synergies across the community, we anticipate a broad community of users funded by a variety of federal agencies (including National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Department of Energy and National Science Foundation) to make copious use of the future facility.

astrophysical plasmas↗

One- and two-qubit gate infidelities due to motional errors in trapped ions and electrons

In this work, we derive analytic formulas that determine the effect of error mechanisms on one- and two-qubit gates in trapped ions and electrons. First, we analyze and derive expressions for the effect of driving field inhomogeneities on one-qubit gate fidelities. Second, we derive expressions for two-qubit gate errors, including static motional frequency shifts, trap anharmonicities, field inhomogeneities, heating, and motional dephasing. We show that, for small errors, each of our expressions for infidelity converges to its respective numerical simulation; this shows that our formulas are sufficient for determining error budgets for high-fidelity gates, obviating numerical simulations in future projects. All of the derivations are general to any internal qubit state, and any mixed state of the ion crystal's motion that is diagonal in the Fock state basis. Our treatment of static motional frequency shifts, trap anharmonicities, heating, and motional dephasing apply to both laser-based and laser-free gates, while our treatment of field inhomogeneities applies to laser-free systems.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy of electrons from tritium $β$ decay and 83m Kr internal conversion

Project 8 has developed a novel technique, cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy (CRES), for direct neutrino mass measurements. A CRES-based experiment on the beta spectrum of tritium has been carried out in a small-volume apparatus. Here, we provide a detailed account of the experiment, focusing on systematic effects and analysis techniques. In a Bayesian (frequentist) analysis, we measure the tritium endpoint as ${18}$ ${553}_{—19}^{+18}$ (${18}$ ${548}_{—19}^{+19}$) eV and set upper limits of 155 (152) eV (90% C.L.) on the neutrino mass. No background events are observed beyond the endpoint in 82 days of running. We also demonstrate an energy resolution of 1.66 ± 0.19 eV in a resolution-optimized magnetic trap configuration by measuring 83m Kr 17.8-keV internal-conversion electrons. These measurements establish CRES as a low-background, high-resolution technique with the potential to advance neutrino mass sensitivity

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Reinforced Ammo Can Validation Test Report for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

A research effort was conducted to investigate the effects of an unintentional internal detonation of energetic materials on a small transportation container called the “Reinforced Ammo Can” (RAC), which is currently approved for the transport of energetic materials up to 2 grams net explosive weight (NEW) onsite at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The project used experimental testing of the containers based on simulated results conducted by a Missouri S & T explosives engineering graduate student while on an internship working in explosives safety at LLNL. The proposed experimental testing consisted of 20 central detonation tests in separate Reinforced Ammo Can containers to verify their high explosive (HE) containment capability. RAC containers are required for transporting secondary explosives on site at LLNL Site 200 in quantities between 300 mg and 2 grams of Trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent NEW. Currently, the LLNL Environmental Safety and Health (ES&H) Manual states that the RAC containers are permissible for on-site transportation of secondary explosives up to 2 grams NEW by approved HE handlers with the approval of an Explosives Safety Expert (ESE). Simulated results indicated that tensile failure of the closure mechanism on the container is the most likely failure mode, and showed potential occurrence at the 2 gram NEW threshold. Experimental validation tests were conducted indicating failure/rupture of the containers lid with venting of the detonation products at the 2 gram NEW test threshold with an explosive mass safety factor of 1.3. Failure consisted of impact opening the container latch mechanism resulting in potential ejection of the lid depending on the orientation of the charge within the confinement. This analysis solely is an evaluation of the response of the containment if a detonation were to occur, it does NOT consider the probability of such an event.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Representative-cell-based Modeling of HTTF in SAM

Although the current nuclear power market is primarily occupied by the light water reactors (LWRs), the TRISO-fueled helium-cooled graphite-moderated high temperature gas reactors (HTGRs) are drawing growing attention as the nuclear power industry marches towards more advanced systems. Compared to that of conventional LWRs, the thermal hydraulics of HTGR cores show extra complexity from their multi-scale heat transfer mechanisms with varying importance during different operation modes or transient stages. The modeling of HTGR cores for the system analysis purpose therefore faces the challenge of reaching reasonable fidelity and accuracy while maintaining sufficient simplicity. Previous development and validation efforts have demonstrated that a “2-D ring model” with reasonable performance can be implemented in the System Analysis Module (SAM) for prismatic HTGR cores. In the current project, an alternative modeling methodology based on “representative cells” is proposed for the typical prismatic core of HTGRs. Different from the previous ring model approach, the proposed methodology first separately models and then combines the small- and large-scale thermal conductions, by connecting representative local heat transfer units (cells) with effective core- wise thermal resistance. A modeling practice for an integral high-temperature test facility (HTTF) elaborates the modeling details. Steady-state validation of the resultant candidate model is performed against a higher-resolution benchmark from a 3D-1D coupled simulation, which shows satisfactory prediction with reasonably captured global parameters and well-represented temperature fields. A postulated pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) is also simulated and analyzed, demonstrating the model’s capability of transient prediction with physically captured phenomena resolved in both small and large temporal and spatial scales. In general, the current work achieves a preliminary success in proposing a methodology using representative cells to model prismatic HTGR cores in SAM. Future efforts are envisioned with more validation activities and with potential modeling improvements to eventually achieve the high confidence on a high-fidelity robust modeling methodology with reasonable accuracy.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Preparation & shipping of ten neutron irradiated Eurofer97 steel variants to HFIR for SANS experiments

At ORNL, ten variants of Eurofer97 steel were irradiated in the high flux isotope reactor (HFIR) to ~2.94 – 3.24 dpa at 300 ± 30 °C, as part of the EUROfusion Lot-IV collaboration. The irradiations were performed in non-instrumented rabbit capsules in the flux trap region, which included SS-J3 type tensile samples and M4-CVN multi-notch bend bars. Their full set of microstructure and mechanical properties were previously reported in multiple previous publications. In this project, half-broken irradiated and nonirradiated SS-J3 tensile samples from ten alloys, code-named H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P and E, were prepared and shipped for facilitating small angle neutron scattering (SANS) experiments at the HFIR general purpose (GP)-SANS beam line. This report summarizes the completed tasks which included canister moves at the Irradiated Materials Examination and Testing (IMET) hot-cell facility to retrieve the samples from long-term storage, loading of the ten irradiated samples at IMET inside lead (Pb) piglets that were specifically provided by ORNL for SANS experiments and radiological shipment from IMET facility to the HFIR hot cells for performing SANS experiments. In addition to the irradiated samples, ten nonirradiated half-broken pieces from the Eurofer97 variants were also provided to HFIR for SANS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs), unlike other lines of evidence, indicate that anthropogenic aerosols cause a global-mean increase in cloud liquid water path (ℒ) and thus a negative adjustment to radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions. In part 1 of this series of papers, we showed that this is true even in models that reproduce the negative correlation observed in present-day internal variability in ℒ and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). We studied several possible confounding mechanisms that could explain the noncausal cloud–aerosol correlations in GCMs and that possibly contaminate observational estimates of radiative adjustments. Here, we perform single-column and full-atmosphere GCM experiments to investigate the causal model-physics mechanisms underlying the model radiative adjustment estimate. We find that both aerosol–cloud interaction mechanisms thought to be operating in real clouds – precipitation suppression and entrainment evaporation enhancement – are active in GCMs and behave qualitatively in agreement with physical process understanding. However, the modeled entrainment enhancement has a negligible global-mean effect. This raises the question of whether the GCM estimate is incorrect due to parametric or base-state representation errors or whether the process understanding gleaned from a limited set of canonical cloud cases is insufficiently representative of the diversity of clouds in the real climate. Regardless, even at limited resolution, the GCM physics appears able to parameterize the small-scale microphysics–turbulence interplay responsible for the entrainment enhancement mechanism. We suggest ways to resolve tension between current and future (storm-resolving) global modeling systems and other lines of evidence in synthesis climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Distributed Energy Resources Can Support Resilience in Utility Distribution Networks

The goal of this webinar is to engage with electric utilities in the Midwest, particularly small public utilities, to understand the industry's needs for science tools to plan for winter resilience in the future, designing tools that will benefit electric power resilience in all communities. Michigan Tech leads this project with partners from multiple academic, government, and industry groups and asked NLR to present on DERs and laboratory tools and resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predicting and Managing Risk to Bats at Commercial Wind Farms using Acoustics

Bat populations in North America face novel threats from white-nose syndrome and widespread turbine-related mortality related to the rapidly expanding wind power industry in addition to long-standing pressures from habitat loss and degradation. Bats, unlike most small mammals, are long-lived and slow to reproduce, highlighting the importance of understanding and managing anthropogenic sources of mortality. My dissertation research used acoustic bat detectors to measure bat activity at commercial wind projects, predict patterns in risk, and design strategic measures to reduce fatality rates by curtailing turbine operation during periods when bats are most active. Bats collide with wind turbines only when their rotors are spinning, and risk of turbine-related fatality is therefore a dynamic factor that can be manipulated by curtailing turbine operation when bats are active. We first measured inter-detector variation in metrics of acoustic bat activity to understand how the acoustic detection process may affect inferences related to spatial and temporal variation in bat activity. Using acoustic detectors mounted on top of wind turbines at two commercial wind farms in West Virginia, we then demonstrated that the amount of bat activity recorded when turbines were operating aligned closely with bat fatality rates on multiple scales. Accordingly, the metric of bat activity exposed to turbine operation provides a meaningful, quantitative indicator of turbine-related bat fatality risk. Further, bats responded consistently to changing wind speed and temperature at turbines in both wind farms across multiple years, enabling exposed bat activity to be predicted accurately among turbines and years. Building on these results, we simulated exposure of bats to turbine operation and energy loss for curtailment strategies recommended by state and federal agencies in the United States and Canada. By adjusting parameters such as cut-in wind speeds and temperature thresholds, we demonstrated the ability to design strategic curtailment programs that achieve equivalent or greater predicted reductions in bat activity exposure for substantially less energy-production loss. Characterizing fatality risk on a finer scale using acoustics will help regulatory agencies and the wind industry alike reduce risks of population-level impacts to vulnerable bat species while continuing to expand large-scale renewable energy generation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗