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Modulation of regional carbon uptake by AMOC and alkalinity changes in the subpolar North Atlantic under a warming climate

The slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated consequences on ocean carbon uptake could have large implications for the Earth's climate system and its global carbon cycle. This study analyzes ten Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reveals that the regional carbon uptake in the subpolar North Atlantic under a high CO 2 emission scenario moderately correlates with the decline in AMOC at 40°N. AMOC transports warm and salty subtropical waters to the subpolar regions. Models with stronger AMOC slowdown generally exhibit weaker surface warming and larger decline of surface salinity and alkalinity. We consider two plausible mechanisms linking the AMOC slowdown to the decline of regional CO 2 uptake: the reduction in surface alkalinity and diminished subduction. The decline of surface salinity and alkalinity reduces the ocean's capacity to buffer acids leading to a reduced CO 2 uptake. This important contribution is unique to the North Atlantic. Diminished convective mixing and subduction of surface water can further decrease the downward transport of anthropogenic carbon, as also shown in previous research. The centennial trends of p CO 2 are decomposed into four components driven by temperature, salinity, alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon, revealing that alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon are both significant contributors. The alkalinity-driven p CO 2 essentially follows surface salinity, establishing the linkage between AMOC slowdown and alkalinity decline. Our results indicate that alkalinity changes are important for the interplay between AMOC and the regional carbon sequestration ability across the late 20 th and the entirety of the 21 st century in the subpolar North Atlantic.

AMOC↗

Pore-Scale Analysis of the Permeability Damage and Recovery during Cyclic Freshwater and Brine Injection in Porous Media Containing Non-Swelling Clays

Permeability damage in subsurface porous media caused by clay mobilization is encountered in many engineering applications, such as geothermal energy, water disposal, oil recovery, and underground CO2 storage. During the freshwater injection into rocks containing brine, the sudden decrease in salinity causes native clay fines to detach and clog pore throats, leading to a significant decline in permeability. The clay fines detach due to weakened net-attractive forces binding them to each other and the grain. Past experiments link this permeability damage on the immediate history of the salinity and the direction of flow. To better understand this phenomenon, we conducted pore-scale simulations of cyclic injection of freshwater and brine into sandstone containing Kaolinite clay. Our simulations establish a link between the clay-fine trajectory and the permeability trend observed by Khilar and Fogler (1983). For a uniform clay size of 3 microns, we observe a permeability decline by two orders of magnitude during freshwater injection with respect to brine injection. Increasing salinity and simultaneously reversing flow direction restores the permeability. The permeability restoration upon reversing the brine flow direction is attributed to the unblocking of pore throats in the reverse direction by the movement of the clay particles along the grain surfaces by the hydrodynamic force and the strong net-attractive force under high salinity.

Bhuvankar, Pramod (ORCID:000000027739973X)↗

Numerical simulations of the profile properties of undeformed first-year sea ice during the growth season

A model is presented for estimating salinity profiles for the first-year sea ice during the growth season, in which ice growth equations were coupled with salt entrapment and brine drainage relations to obtain the relationship between the initial ice salinity and the ice-growth velocity and seawater salinity, as well as the subsequent drainage of brine from the ice. The results obtained were found to be in reasonable agreement with field observations in that they showed characteristic C-shaped profiles similar to natural profiles. The average ice salinity values were also in reasonable agreement with field data. The predicted ice property profiles give composite plate properties that are significantly different from bulk property estimates that would result by assuming that sea ice could be represented as a homogeneous plate.

Cox, G. F. N.↗

Atrial natriuretic factor increases vascular permeability

An increase in central blood volume in microgravity may result in increased plasma levels of atrial natriuretic factor (ANF). In this study, it was determined whether ANF increases capillary permeability to plasma protein. Conscious, bilaterally nephrectomized male rats were infused with either saline, ANF + saline, or hexamethonium + saline over 2 h following bolus injections of (I-125)-albumin and (C-14)-dextran of similar molecular size. Blood pressure was monitored, and serial determinations of hematocrits were made. Animals infused with 1.0 microg/kg per min ANF had significantly higher hematocrits than animals infused with saline vehicle. Infusion of ANF increased the extravasation of (I-125)-albumin, but not (C-14)-dextran from the intravascular compartment. ANF also induced a depressor response in rats, but the change in blood pressure did not account for changes in capillary permeability to albumin; similar depressor responses induced by hexamethonium were not accompanied by increased extravasation of albumin from the intravascular compartment. ANF may decrease plasma volume by increasing permeability to albumin, and this effect of ANF may account for some of the signs and symptoms of space motion sickness.

Lockette, Warren↗

AVIRIS calibration and application in coastal oceanic environments - Tracers of soluble and particulate constituents of the Tampa Bay coastal plume

AVIRIS is a testbed for future spacecraft sensors (such as HIRIS and MODIS) planned for the Earth Observing System. Model-derived absorption coefficients at 415 nm, a(415), and back-scattering coefficients at 671 nm, b sub b (671) for Tampa Bay waters were used to create images from AVIRIS data of the dissolved component of a(415) due to gelbstoff, a sub g (415), and salinity. Images of a sub g (415), salinity, and b sub b (671) were used to depict the distribution of dissolved and particulate constituents, respectively, for Tampa Bay plume during late, ebb-tidal conditions. Salinity covaried with a sub g (415), which provided a means of mapping salinity from the a sub g (415) imagery. The concentration of suspended particles, as inferred from b sub g (671), was extremely variable in the shallow regions where waves and currents interacted. Pollutants covarying with fresh water or suspended sediments can be mapped from a sub g (415) and b sub b (671) images, respectively.

Carder, K. L.↗

Turnover of Biogenic Amines in the Hypothalamus of Rats during Pyrogen Fever

Many pharmacological studies have implicated the biogenic amines in the hypothalamus as playing a role in the production of fever, but few investigations of endogenous neurochemicals have been made during fever. Turnover rates of transmitters utilizing radioactive precursors may be one of the most accurate measurements of activity in brain regions. The present study was designed to measure the turnover of 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) norepinephrine (NE) and dopamine (DA) in the hypothalamus of rats during pyrogen fever. Salmonella typhosa (Wyeth, 8 units) was previously found in our laboratory to produce a significant hyperthermia in most rats by 2.5 hours. This pyrogen (N = l2) or saline control (N = 8) was injected intraperitoneally and the rats killed 2.75 hours later. Rectal temperatures (Tr) were monitored continuously with thermocouples taped to the tail and recorded automatically every 3 minutes. Half of each group received an injection of radioactive precursors, (3)H-tryptophan (0.5 mCi) and (3)H-tryptophan (1.0 mCi), via an indwelling jugular catheter 60 minutes before killing, and the other half at 90 minutes. The rats were killed by near freezing in liquid nitrogen and the brains dissected in the cold. Turnover was measured by the method of Lane (Life Sci 21, 1101, 1977). At the time of killing most of the pyrogen group showed a significant (p < .02) increase (mean +/- s.e.m.) in Tr above pre injection levels (0.75 +/- 0.13 C, N = 10). The saline group showed no change (-0.025 +/- 0.16, N = 8), and the difference between groups was also significant. No significant differences were found in the levels of the amines between the pyrogen and saline groups. A significant difference was found in the specific activity of NE between the 60 minute pyrogen and saline groups (4.41 +/- 0.41 vs 2.6 +/- 0.51 dpm/pmole) but no change in turnover. This suggests an increased accumulation of (3)H-NE in the pyrogen group, but no change in utilization. An increased turnover of DA for the pyrogen group (44.5 vs 19.2 pmole/mg protein/hr) was found. However, DA is mainly a precursor in the hypothalamus and measurement was near the limit of sensitivity for the assay; these limitations Must be considered in interpreting this data. The most significant finding was an increase in the turnover of 5-HT in the pyrogen group (41.3 vs 7.3 pmole/mg protein/hr), indicating a resynthetization rate of 77% of the total pool per hour. These results suggest that at the time point measured, an increase in the utilization of 5-HT in the hypothalamus is-correlated with pyrogen fever.

Penn, P. E.↗

Evaluation of Factors Affecting Powdered Drug Reconstitution in Microgravity

Owing to the high cost of transporting mass into space, and the small volume available for equipment in the Space Shuttle Orbiter and the International Space Station, refrigeration space is extremely limited. For this reason, there exists strong motivation for transporting certain drugs in powdered form so that they do not require refrigeration. When needed, the powdered drug will be mixed with saline to obtain a liquid form that may be injected intravenously. While this is a relatively simple task in a 1-G environment, there are some difficulties that may be encountered in 0-G. In non-accelerated spaceflight, gravitational and inertial forces are eliminated allowing other smaller forces, such as capillary forces and surface tension, to dominate the behavior of fluids. For instance, water slowly ejected from a straw will tend to form a sphere, while fluid in a container will tend to wet the inside surface forming a highly rounded meniscus. Initial attempts at mixing powdered drugs with saline in microgravity have shown a tendency toward forming foamy emulsions instead of the desired homogeneous solution. The predominance of adhesive forces between the drug particles and the interface tensions at the gas/liquid and solid/liquid interfaces drastically reduce the rate of deaggregation of the drug powder and also reduce the rate of absorption of saline by the powder mass. In addition, the capillary forces cause the saline to wet the inside of the container, thus trapping air bubbles within the liquid. The rate of dissolution of a powder drug is directly proportional to the amount of surface area of the solid that is exposed to liquid solvent. The surface area of drug that is in contact with the liquid is greatly reduced in microgravity and, as a result, the dissolution rate is reduced as well. The KC-135 research described here was aimed at evaluating the extent to which it is possible to perform drug reconstitution in the weightlessness of parabolic flight using standard pharmacological supplies. The experiment included a parametric assessment of possible factors affecting the reconstitution process. The specific questions that we wished to answer were: (1) Is it possible to reconstitute powdered drugs in weightlessness using standard pharmacological equipment? (2) What are the differences between drug reconstitution in a 1-G and a 0-G environment? (3) What techniques of mixing the drug powder and diluent are more successful? (4) What physical and chemical factors play a role in determining the success of mixing and dissolution? (5) Is it necessary to employ crewmember and equipment restraints during the reconstitution process?

Schaffner, Grant↗

Drinking-Induced Plasma Vasopressin and Norepinephrine Changes in Dehydrated Humans

After 24-h water deprivation, five men (23-41 yr; 78 +/- 3.6 kg) consumed, within 4.0-6.2 min, 12 mL/kg of one of six fluid formulations (16.5 C) once a week over a period of 6 weeks: water, hypotonic saline (0.045% Na(+)), isotopic saline (0.36%, Na(+)), hypertonic glucose 9 7%, glucose), and two commercial mildly hypertonic 9.7% carbohydrate drinks. Blood samples were drawn 5 min before and: 3, 9, 15, 30, and 70 min after completion of drinking. Ingestion induced no significant change in plasma Na(+), K(+), osmotic, or protein concentrations, blood pressure; or heart rate. Plasma volume (PV) was increases (P <0.05) between 30-70 min with isotonic saline and the two commercial drinks. Ingestion induced a decrease in plasma AVP (PAVP) at 3 min, which was maximal (P < 0.05) at 15 min with all drinks. Thus, the act of drinking, independent of the composition or osmolality of the fluid absorbed, leads to a prompt inhibition of PAVP secretion in man. With the exception of rehydration with isotonic saline, this prompt response was followed by a long lasting inhibition of PAVP. There was no change in PRA, plasma aldosterone, atrial natriuretic peptide, or epinephrine, but an increase in plasma norepinephrine occurred immediately after ingestion, which suggests, like that for PAVP depression, a drinking-stimulate neural mechanism.

Geelen, Ghislaine↗

Galactic Noise and Passive Microwave Remote Sensing from Space at L-Band

The spectral window at L-band (1.4 GHz) is important for passive remote sensing of parameters such as soil moisture and ocean salinity best measured at long wavelengths. At L-band, radiation from extraterrestrial (galactic) sources is strong enough to warrant inclusion in calibration and retrieval algorithms and unlike the constant cosmic background is spatially variable. Previous estimates of the magnitude and distribution of this background radiation have been rather coarse, However, recent surveys of the radio sky at 1.4 GHz have made it possible to produce maps with sufficient spatial and radiometric accuracy to be relevant to remote sensing applications. This is of particular concern for remote sensing of sea surface salinity because the surface (water) is a good reflector and the salinity signal is relatively small. This paper presents a modem map of the radiometric sky at L-band and a solution to the problem of determining the portion of the sky seen by a radiometer in orbit. The data is derived from recent radio astronomy surveys and is presented as equivalent brightness temperature suitable for remote sensing applications. Examples using orbits and antennas representative of those contemplated for remote sensing of soil moisture and sea surface salinity from space are presented to illustrate the signal levels to be expected. Radiation near the galactic plane can exceed several kelvin.

LeVine, D. M.↗

Glycine betaine accumulation, ionic and water relations of red-beet at contrasting levels of sodium supply

Exposure of plants to sodium (Na) and salinity may increase glycine betaine accumulation in tissues. To study this, red-beet cvs. Scarlet Supreme and Ruby Queen, were grown for 42 days in a growth chamber using a re-circulating nutrient film technique with 0.25 mmol/L K and either 4.75 mmol/L (control) or 54.75 mmol/L (saline) Na (as NaCl). Plants were harvested at weekly intervals and measurements were taken on leaf water relations, leaf photosynthetic rates, chlorophyll fluorescence, chlorophyll levels, glycine betaine levels, and tissue elemental composition. Glycine betaine accumulation increased under salinity and this accumulation correlated with higher tissue levels of Na in both cultivars. Na accounted for 80 to 90% of the total cation uptake under the saline treatment. At final harvest (42 days), K concentrations in laminae ranged from approximately 65-95 micromoles g-1 dry matter (DM), whereas Na in shoot tissue ranged from approximately 3000-4000 micromoles g-1. Leaf sap osmotic potential at full turgor [psi(s100)] increased as lamina Na content increased. Glycine betaine levels of leaf laminae showed a linear relationship with leaf sap [psi(s100)]. Chlorophyll levels, leaf photosynthetic rates, and chlorophyll fluorescence were not affected by Na levels. These results suggest that the metabolic tolerance to high levels of tissue Na in red-beet could be due to its ability to synthesize and regulate glycine betaine production, and to control partitioning of Na and glycine betaine between the vacuole and the cytoplasm.

NASA Center KSC↗

Beta-adrenoceptor dysfunction after inhibition of NO synthesis

G(s) protein-coupled beta-adrenoceptors rapidly desensitize on exposure to agonists in reconstituted membrane preparations, whereas rapid tachyphylaxis to beta-adrenoceptor-mediated vasodilation does not readily occur in vivo. This study examined the possibility that endothelium-derived nitrosyl factors prevent the rapid desensitization of beta-adrenoceptors in the vascular smooth muscle of resistance arteries in pentobarbital-anesthetized rats. The fall in mean arterial blood pressure and in hindquarter vascular resistance produced by the beta-adrenoceptor agonist isoproterenol (ISO, 0.1 to 10 microg/kg IV) was slightly but significantly smaller in rats treated with the NO synthase inhibitor N:(G)-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME, 100 micromol/kg IV) than in saline-treated rats. The ISO-induced fall in mesenteric resistance was similar in L-NAME-treated and in saline-treated rats. The fall in hindquarter vascular resistance and in mesenteric resistance produced by ISO (8 x 10 microg/kg IV) was subject to tachyphylaxis on repeated injection in rats treated with L-NAME (100 micromol/kg IV) but not in rats treated with saline. Injections of L-S:-nitrosocysteine (1200 nmol/kg IV), a lipophobic S:-nitrosothiol, before each injection of ISO (10 microg/kg IV) prevented tachyphylaxis to ISO in L-NAME-treated rats. The vasodilator effects of ISO (0.1 to 10 microg/kg IV) in L-NAME-treated rats that received 8 injections of ISO (10 microg/kg IV) were markedly smaller than in L-NAME-treated rats that received 8 injections of saline. These results indicate that (1) the vasodilator actions of ISO in pentobarbital-anesthetized rats only minimally involve the release of endothelium-derived nitrosyl factors, (2) the effects of ISO are subject to development of tachyphylaxis in L-NAME-treated rats, and (3) tachyphylaxis to ISO is prevented by L-S:-nitrosocysteine. These findings suggest that endothelium-derived nitrosyl factors may prevent desensitization of beta-adrenoceptors in vivo.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Measurement of the Dielectric Constant of Seawater at L-Band: Techniques and Measurements

Satellite instruments, that will monitor salinity from space in the near future, require an accurate relationship between salinity/temperature and seawater dielectric constant. This paper will review measurements that were made of the dielectric constant of seawater during the past several years. The objective of the measurements is to determine the dependence of the dielectric constant of seawater on salinity and on temperature, more accurately than in the past. by taking advantage of modem instrumentation. The measurements of seawater permittivity have been performed as a function of salinity and temperature using a transmission resonant cavity technique. The measurements have been made in the salinity range of 10 to 38 psu and in the temperature range of IOU C to 35 C. These results will be useful in algorithm development for sensor systems such as SMOS and Aquarius. The measurement system consists of a brass microwave cavity that is resonant at 1.413 GHz. The seawater is introduced into the cavity through a capillary glass tube having an inner diameter of 0.1 mm. The diameter of the tube has been made very small so that the amount of seawater introduced in the cavity is small - thus maintaining the sensitivity of the measurements and allowing the use of perturbation theory predicting the seawater permittivity. The change in resonant frequency and the change in cavity Q can be used to determine the real and imaginary pare of the dielectric constant of seawater introduced into the slender tube. The microwave measurements are made by an HPS722D network analyzer. The cavity has been immersed in a u~ateriethylene-glycol bath which is connected to a Lauda circulator. The circulator keeps the brass cavity at a temperature constant to within 0.01 degrees. The system is automated using a Visual Basic program to control the analyzer and to collect the data. The results of the dielectric constant measurements of seawater will be presented. The measurement results will be compared with permittivity values generated from the Kline and Swift relationship. Two methods of calibration will be discussed, The errors that each technique introduces into the measurement resulls will be reviewed. Temperature stability, frequency drift and the effect of increasing cavity transmission loss on the unloaded cavity Q will also be discussed.

Lang, R.↗

Toxicity of Lunar Dust in Lungs Assessed by Examining Biomarkers in Exposed Mice

NASA plans to build an outpost on the Moon for prolonged human habitation and research. The lunar surface is covered by a layer of soil, of which the finest portion is highly reactive dust. NASA has invited NIOSH to collaboratively investigate the toxicity of lunar dust. Dust samples of respirable sizes were aerodynamically isolated from two lunar soil samples of different maturities (cosmic exposure ages) collected during the Apollo 16 mission. The lunar dust samples, titanium dioxide, or quartz, suspended in normal saline or in Survanta (a bovine lung surfactant), were given to groups of 5 mice (C-57 male) by intrapharyngeal aspiration at 1, 0.3, or 0.1 mg/mouse. The mice were euthanized 7 or 30 days later, and their lungs were lavaged to assess the toxicity biomarkers in bronchioalveolar lavage fluids. The acellular fractions were assayed for total proteins, lactate dehydrogenase activities, and cytokines; the cellular portions were assessed for total cell counts and cell differentials. Results from the high-dose groups showed that lunar dust, suspended in saline, was more toxic than TiO 2, but less toxic than quartz. Lunar dust particles aggregate and settle out rapidly in water or saline, but not in Survanta. Lunar dust suspended in Survanta manifested greater toxicity than lunar dust in saline. The increase in toxicity presumably was due to that Survanta gave a better particle dispersion in the lungs. The two lunar dust samples showed similar toxicity. The overall results showed that lunar dust is more toxic than TiO 2 but less toxic than quartz.

Lam, C.-W.↗

Accurate Measurements of the Dielectric Constant of Seawater at L Band

This report describes measurements of the dielectric constant of seawater at a frequency of 1.413 GHz that is at the center of the L-Sand radiometric protected frequency spectrum. Aquarius will be sensing the sea surface salinity from space in this band. The objective of the project is to refine the model function for the dielectric constant as a function of salinity and temperature so that remote sensing measurements can be made with the accuracy needed to meet the measurement goals (0.2 psu) of the Aquarius mission. The measurements were made, using a microwave cavity operated in the transmission configuration. The cavity's temperature was accurately regulated to 0.02 C by immersing it in a temperature controlled bath of distilled water and ethanol glycol. Seawater had been purchased from Ocean Scientific International Limited (OS1L) at salinities of 30, 35 and 38 psu. Measurements of these seawater samples were then made over a range of temperatures, from l0 C to 35 C in 5 C intervals. Repeated measurements were made at each temperature and salinity, Mean values and standard deviations were then computed. Total error budgets indicated that the real and imaginary parts of the dielectric constant had a relative accuracy of about l%.

Lang, Roger H.↗

Characterization and Correction of Aquarius Long Term Calibration Drift Using On-Earth Brightness Temperature Refernces

The Aquarius/SAC-D mission was launched on June 10, 2011 from Vandenberg Air Force Base. Aquarius consists of an L-band radiometer and scatterometer intended to provide global maps of sea surface salinity. One of the main mission objectives is to provide monthly global salinity maps for climate studies of ocean circulation, surface evaporation and precipitation, air/sea interactions and other processes. Therefore, it is critical that any spatial or temporal systematic biases be characterized and corrected. One of the main mission requirements is to measure salinity with an accuracy of 0.2 psu on montly time scales which requires a brightness temperature stability of about 0.1K, which is a challenging requirement for the radiometer. A secondary use of the Aquarius data is for soil moisture applications, which requires brightness temperature stability at the warmer end of the brightness temperature dynamic range. Soon after launch, time variable drifts were observed in the Aquarius data compared to in-situ data from ARGO and models for the ocean surface salinity. These drifts could arise from a number of sources, including the various components of the retrieval algorithm, such as the correction for direct and reflected galactic emission, or from the instrument brightness temperature calibration. If arising from the brightness temperature calibration, they could have gain and offset components. It is critical that the nature of the drifts be understood before a suitable correction can be implemented. This paper describes the approach that was used to detect and characterize the components of the drift that were in the brightness temperature calibration using on-Earth reference targets that were independent of the ocean model.

Aquarius↗

Aquarius Main Structure Configuration

The Aquarius/SAC-D Observatory is a joint US-Argentine mission to map the salinity at the ocean surface. This information is critical to improving our understanding of two major components of Earth's climate system - the water cycle and ocean circulation. By measuring ocean salinity from space, the Aquarius/SAC-D Mission will provide new insights into how the massive natural exchange of freshwater between the ocean, atmosphere and sea ice influences ocean circulation, weather and climate. Aquarius is the primary instrument on the SAC-D spacecraft. It consists of a Passive Microwave Radiometer to detect the surface emission that is used to obtain salinity and an Active Scatterometer to measure the ocean waves that affect the precision of the salinity measurement. The Aquarius Primary Structure houses instrument electronics, feed assemblies, and supports a deployable boom with a 2.5 m Reflector, and provides the structural interface to the SAC-D Spacecraft. The key challenge for the Aquarius main structure configuration is to satisfy the needs of component accommodations, ensuring that the instrument can meet all operational, pointing, environmental, and launch vehicle requirements. This paper describes the evolution of the Aquarius main structure configuration, the challenges of balancing the conflicting requirements, and the major configuration driving decisions and compromises.

Eremenko, Alexander↗

An Introduction to the NASA GMAO Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System - GEOS-S2S Version 3

Recently NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed a new Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction system Version 3 (GEOS-S2S-3). This upgrade replaces the GEOS-S2S-2 which is NASA's current contribution to the North American Multi-Model Experiment seasonal prediction project (Kirtman et al., 2014). The main improvements for our S2S-3 system include 1) a higher resolution MOM5 (Griffies et al., 2005) ocean model (now 0.25o x 0.25o x 50 layers), 2) an improved atmospheric/ocean interface layer (Akella and Suarez, 2018), and 3) assimilation of a long-track satellite salinity into the ocean model (Hackert et al, 2019). Atmospheric forcing is provided by the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (Gelaro et al., 2017). Initialization for the ocean relies on the GMAO ocean reanalysis system which assimilates all available in situ temperature and salinity, satellite sea surface salinity, and sea level using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) implementation of (Penny et al., 2013) on a 5 day assimilation cycle with 20 fixed ensemble members.In this presentation, we will authenticate our new S2S-3 ocean reanalysis using standard GODAE validation metrics. For example, we will compare gridded fields of mean and standard deviation of the ocean reanalysis versus observed fields. We will show correlation/RMS of model versus observations and temperature and salinity mean profiles for the various basins and latitude bands. Basin-scale volume transports, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Indonesian Throughflow will be validated. Equatorial ocean waves will be compared by decomposing sea level into Kelvin and Rossby components. For each of these metrics, we plan to validate the results and then compare our new S2S-3 against the current production version, S2S-2. Finally, we will compare 9-month seasonal forecasts initialized from these two systems for the tropical Pacific NINO3.4 region over the period 1981-present.

Molod, Andrea↗

Changing Physical Conditions and Lower and Upper Trophic Level Responses on the US Northeast Shelf

Sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, and chlorophyll concentration (CHL) have changed in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem over recent decades. The changes in these parameters were distinctly marked by change points around the year 2012 resulting in a 0.83°C increase in SST, a 0.3 PSU increase in salinity, and decrease in CHL in excess of 0.4 mg m–3. Where temperature and salinity shifted in mean level around their respective change points, CHL declined in a more monotonic fashion. Modeled data suggest that the shift in CHL resulted in a greater contribution of pico- and nanophytoplankton and a decreased contribution of microphytoplankton to overall CHL. Complementary estimates of the contribution of different phytoplankton functional types suggest a diminished contribution of diatoms to the phytoplankton community. Hence, not only is there evidence of a decline in the overall primary production capacity of the ecosystem, but also evidence of a fundamental change in the size and quality of phytoplankton supporting food webs. Two ecosystem responses to the observed changes in SST, salinity, and CHL were analyzed. Both length and weight at age have declined for a number of species, and both measures of growth appear to be negatively associated with temperature and positively associated with CHL. Biomass of fish and macroinvertebrates has declined in recent years, with a decrease in pelagic species associated with a decrease in CHL, while the decline in demersal species was associated with an increase in temperature. Collectively, these ecosystem changes appear to be the result of the complex interactions of both thermal effects and changes at the base of the food web.

Kevin D. Friedland↗