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DOE OSTI2023

Time–Concentration Superposition for Linear Viscoelasticity of Polymer Solutions

The concentration dependence of linear viscoelastic properties of polymer solutions is a well-studied topic in polymer physics. Dynamic scaling theories allow qualitative predictions of polymer solution rheology, but quantitative predictions are still limited to model polymers. Meanwhile, the scaling properties of non-model polymer solutions must be determined experimentally. In present paper, the time–concentration superposition (TCS) of experimental data is shown to be a robust procedure for studying the concentration scaling properties of binary and ternary polymer solutions. TCS can not only identify whether power law scaling may exist or not, and over which concentration range, but also unambiguously estimate the concentration scaling exponents of linear viscoelastic properties for a range of non-model polymer solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generalization error guaranteed auto-encoder-based nonlinear model reduction for operator learning

Many physical processes in science and engineering are naturally represented by operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces. The problem of operator learning, in this context, seeks to extract these physical processes from empirical data, which is challenging due to the infinite or high dimensionality of data. An integral component in addressing this challenge is model reduction, which reduces both the data dimensionality and problem size. In this paper, we utilize low-dimensional nonlinear structures in model reduction by investigating Auto-Encoder-based Neural Network (AENet). AENet first learns the latent variables of the input data and then learns the transformation from these latent variables to corresponding output data. Our numerical experiments validate the ability of AENet to accurately learn the solution operator of nonlinear partial differential equations. Furthermore, we establish a mathematical and statistical estimation theory that analyzes the generalization error of AENet. Finally, our theoretical framework shows that the sample complexity of training AENet is intricately tied to the intrinsic dimension of the modeled process, while also demonstrating the robustness of AENet to noise.

Auto-encoder↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-quantification-enabled inversion of nuclear responses

Nuclear quantum many-body methods rely on integral transform techniques to infer properties of electroweak response functions from ground-state expectation values. Retrieving the energy dependence of these responses is highly nontrivial, especially for quantum Monte Carlo methods, as it requires inverting the Laplace transform, a notoriously ill-posed problem. Here, in this work, we propose an artificial neural network architecture suitable for accurate response function reconstruction with precise estimation of the uncertainty of the inversion. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new architecture benchmarking it against maximum entropy and previously developed neural network methods designed for a similar task, paying particular attention to its robustness noise in the Euclidean

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Convective Parameters Derived from Radiosonde Data (SONDEPARAM) Value-Added Product Report

Radiosondes provide fundamental observations of the vertical profile of atmospheric state (pressure, temperature, humidity, and winds), with important implications for subsequent studies on environmental controls on cloud conditions. Within convective cloud environments, there is an increasing demand for additional value-added products (VAPs) to facilitate the use of U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility radiosonde data sets. Such VAPs should provide quick and reliable estimates for several standard radiosonde parameters or quantities of interest using common assumptions, as well as open, flexible code for visualization and user interaction. The Convective Parameters Derived from Radiosonde Data (SONDEPARAM) VAP will apply several robust algorithms used in Wang et al. (2020) for the calculation of useful radiosonde convective cloud parameters, including the convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and other convective parameters, for several different assumptions regarding the initial parcel characteristics (i.e., surface-based, most unstable, mixed layer). These ARM VAP codes are developed in open, flexible Python formats, with the intention that these parameters/calculations will be incorporated into traditional ARM quick-look radiosonde plotting, yet associated with user-available codes for ease in user reproduction and assumption modification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Building Science Advisor: A Web-Based Tool to Assess the Durability of Building Envelope Components

The Department of Energy (DOE) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have developed an innovative new design tool that will put building science expert advice in the hands of every building designer who cares to manage moisture risk in high-R envelope components. As modern buildings become increasingly more airtight, constructed with modern labor-saving materials, and equipped with air-conditioning, they have become less forgiving to moisture intrusion. The Building Science Advisor (BSA) provides building science knowledge and advice based on expert experience, field measurements, laboratory tests, and computer simulations.BSA users are prompted to enter relevant information about the building location, design, and material selection options like cladding, structural system, and insulation. Influential factors such as climate, building air tightness, material properties, and internal moisture loads are also considered to estimate and compare the moisture durability performance of several design options. If the BSA deems the assembly’s performance unsatisfactory, it will provide the reasons why, and suggest necessary changes to wall design to ensure more robust performance.Using the BSA tool enables building designers to confidently select assembly design characteristics that achieve their design goals with the least moisture durability risk. Links to design-specific guidance are also be provided to help users manage any remaining risk. This tool will further enable DOE’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) to meet its long-term energy goal of a 50% reduction in building energy consumption by reducing builder concern about using highly energy efficient wall systems.

Desjarlais, Andre Omer↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling study of deep direct use geothermal on the West Virginia university campus-morgantown, WV

To reduce the geothermal exploration risk, a feasibility study is performed for a deep direct-use (DDU) system proposed at the West Virginia University (WVU) Morgantown campus. This study applies numerical simulations to investigate reservoir impedance and thermal production. Because of the great depth of the geothermal reservoir, few data are available to characterize reservoir features and properties. Consequently, the study focuses on the following three aspects: 1. model choice for predicting reservoir impedance and thermal breakthrough: after investigating three potential models (one single permeability model and two dual permeability models) for flow through fractured rock, it is decided only the single permeability model is needed; 2. well placement (horizontal vs. vertical) options: horizontal well placement seems to be more robust to heterogeneity and the impedance is more acceptable; 3. Prediction uncertainty: the most influential parameters are identified using a First-Order-Second-Moment uncertainty propagation analysis, and the uncertain range of the model predictions is estimated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation. Heterogeneity has a large impact on the prediction, therefore, heterogeneity is included in the predictive model and uncertainty analysis. The numerical model results and uncertainty analysis will be used for further economic studies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancement of magnetic domain wall velocity via resonant dissipation of standing wave modes of domain wall structure with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy

The dynamic behaviors of magnetic domain walls have significant implications for developing advanced spintronic devices. In this study, we investigate the intriguing resonance phenomenon within the magnetic domain wall structure, focusing on the dissipation mechanism and its impact on domain wall dynamic motion. By applying a static external magnetic field, we observe a remarkable amplification of domain wall velocity through the resonant excitations of the flexure modes. The resonance of the flexure mode exerts an indirect influence on the domain wall velocity through energy dissipation, leading to a significant enhancement from the predictions of the one-dimensional Walker model. We establish a robust model platform rooted in energy dissipation allows comprehensive understanding the dramatic enhancement of domain wall velocity observed during width-directional flexure mode resonance. By directly quantifying energy dissipation, our approach provides highly effective and accurate estimates of domain wall velocity, surpassing previous methods that focus solely on the instantaneous dynamics of the domain wall structure. These findings offer crucial insights into the fundamental mechanisms governing the dynamics of domain walls and other magnetic systems, such as magnetic skyrmions, bubbles, and magnetic vortices, paving the way for development and optimization of next-generation spintronic devices.

Collective dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Galaxy Spin Classification. I. Z-wise versus S-wise Spirals with the Chirality Equivariant Residual Network

The angular momentum of galaxies (galaxy spin) contains rich information about the initial condition of the universe, yet it is challenging to efficiently measure the spin direction for the tremendous amount of galaxies that are being mapped by ongoing and forthcoming cosmological surveys. We present a machine-learning-based classifier for the Z-wise versus S-wise spirals, which can help to break the degeneracy in the galaxy spin direction measurement. The proposed chirality equivariant residual network (CE-ResNet) is manifestly equivariant under a reflection of the input image, which guarantees that there is no inherent asymmetry between the Z-wise and S-wise probability estimators. We train the model with Sloan Digital Sky Survey images, with the training labels given by the Galaxy Zoo 1 project. A combination of data augmentation techniques is used during the training, making the model more robust to be applied to other surveys. We find an ~30% increase in both types of spirals when Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) images are used for classification, due to the better imaging quality of DESI. We verify that the ~7σ difference between the numbers of Z-wise and S-wise spirals is due to human bias, since the discrepancy drops to <1.8σ with our CE-ResNet classification results. We discuss the potential systematics relevant to future cosmological applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid-Learning Algorithm for Online Dynamic State Estimation in Multimachine Power Systems

With the increasing penetration of distributed generators in the smart grids, having knowledge of rapid real-time electromechanical dynamic states has become crucial to system stability control. Conventional Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA)-based dynamic state estimation (DSE) techniques are limited by the slow sampling rates, while the emerging phasor measurement units (PMUs) technology enables rapid real-time measurements at network nodes. Using generator bus terminal voltages, we propose a hybrid-learning DSE (HL-DSE) algorithm to estimate the synchronous machine rotor angle and speed in real time. The HL-DSE takes the power system model into account and trains neuroestimators with real-time data in an online manner. Compared with traditional DSE methods, the HL-DSE overcomes limitations by using a data-driven approach in conjunction with the physical power system model. The time efficiency, accuracy, convergence, and robustness of the proposed algorithm are tested under noises and fault conditions in both small- and large-scale test systems. Simulation results show that the proposed HL-DSE is much more computationally efficient than widely used Kalman filter (KF)-based methods while maintaining comparable accuracy and robustness. In particular, HL-DSE is over 100 times faster than square-root unscented KF (SR-UKF) and 80 times faster than extended KF (EKF). The advantages and challenges of the HL-DSE are also discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification and Optimal Experiment Design in the Open-Source Pyomo Ecosystem

This contribution describes ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE, two pillars of the open-source Python-based Pyomo ecosystem for computational optimization with (partial differential) algebraic equation mathematical models. Specifically, ParmEst facilitates intrusive frequentist parameter estimation (PE) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) through built-in features, such as covariance matrix estimation, bootstrapping, and likelihood ratio tests. Complementary, Pyomo.DoE enables optimal experiment design by maximizing various metrics of the Fisher information matrix, such as A-optimality (trace), D-optimality (determinant), E-optimality (minimum eigenvalue), and ME-optimality (condition number). ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE can solve high-dimensional optimization problems by leveraging the model structure and exact derivative information. Finally, we will discuss future opportunities to integrate PE and UQ capabilities with optimization under uncertainty, including robust optimization with non-convex models via PyROS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Brain‐age prediction: Systematic evaluation of site effects, and sample age range and size

Abstract Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain‐age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain‐age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain‐age models pre‐trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain‐age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre‐trained brain‐age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best‐performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain‐age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5–90 years; 53.59% female). The pre‐trained models were tested for cross‐dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8–80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9–25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age‐bins (5–40 and 40–90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain‐age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain ( https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2 ), an open‐science, web‐based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Avalanche gain and its effect on energy resolution in GEM-based detectors

Here, we present avalanche gain and associated resolution measurements recorded with a 4 He:CO 2 (70:30) gas mixture and pure SF 6 , a Negative Ion (NI) gas. SF 6 is of particular interest to the directional dark matter detection community, as its low thermal diffusion helps to retain recoil ionization track features over long drift lengths. With the aid of a general form of the reduced first Townsend coefficient (RFTC), multiple GEM-based detector data sets are used to study the high-gain behavior of the 4 He:CO 2 gas mixture. The high-gain data is well described purely in terms of the reduced electric field strength and the number of GEMs, and the robust relationship between the RFTC and the average, reduced, electric field strength across the GEMs is emphasized. The associated (pulse-height) resolution measurements are used to discuss the variance of the avalanche distribution and to describe and estimate the lower limits of energy resolution one should expect to measure using a simple relationship with the RFTC. In the end, a description of avalanche gain, its effect on energy resolution, and the contributing experimental parameters in GEM-based detectors is developed over a broad parameter space for further use.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Relative Source Time Functions, Spectral Ratios, and Near‐Source Spallation in the Source Physics Experiment Phase I Chemical Explosions

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I was composed of six chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Sites (NNSS) between 2011 and 2016. The experiment provided a robust set of dense, local to regional distance observations suitable for characterizing shallow chemical explosions located within the same borehole. We investigate the time-dependent source processes of each chemical explosion using Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) estimation, derived from five linear seismometer profiles located between 100 and 2000 m of the shot location. The RSTF estimate provide a detailed characterization of each chemical explosion's time-history. Subsequent modeling efforts suggest these measurements may be useful for precise characterization of explosion processes and spallation. RSTF estimation allows us to expand our understanding of the SPE Phase I chemical explosion series. Application of these techniques contributes to our understanding of explosion source physics and facilitates future applications to additional seismic source experiments and characterization of explosion phenomenology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗