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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Warped April Tag Impacts on Detection and Pose Estimation

This report evaluates the impact of geometric deformation on an April Tag, particularly when warped due to attachment on a curved surface, on its detectability and pose estimation performance. A comparative analysis was conducted using a flat April Tag as a control under identical experimental conditions, which involved recording video sequences with varying viewing angles. For detectability, the warped tag exhibited consistent detection failures at viewing angles beyond 40° and complete failures beyond 60°, whereas the flat tag maintained reliable detection across all angles. For pose estimation, measured by pose jitter (variation in rotation and translation), differences between the warped and flat tags were minimal and statistically insignificant, indicating robust performance even for the deformed tag. These findings suggest that while geometric warping reduces an April Tag’s detectability, its pose estimation accuracy remains relatively unaffected under the tested conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

The DESI DR1 peculiar velocity survey: Growth rate measurements from the galaxy power spectrum

The large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution encapsulate a wealth of cosmological information. A powerful means of unlocking this knowledge lies in measuring the auto-power spectrum and/or the cross-power spectrum of the galaxy density and momentum fields, followed by the estimation of cosmological parameters based on these spectrum measurements. In this study, we generalize the cross-power spectrum model to accommodate scenarios in which the density and momentum fields are derived from distinct galaxy surveys. The growth rate of the large-scale structures of the Universe, commonly represented as fσ 8 , was extracted by jointly fitting the monopole and quadrupole moments of the auto-density power spectrum, the monopole of the auto-momentum power spectrum, and the dipole of the cross-power spectrum. Our estimators, theoretical models, and parameter-fitting framework were tested using mocks, confirming their robustness and accuracy in retrieving the fiducial growth rate from simulation. These techniques were then applied to analyse the power spectrum of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey and Peculiar Velocity Survey. The fit result of the growth rate is fσ8 = 0.440$^{+0.080}_{−0.096}$ at effective redshift zeff = 0.07. By synthesizing the fitting outcomes from correlation functions, maximum likelihood estimation, and the power spectrum, a consensus value is yielded of fσ 8 (z eff = 0.07) = 0.450$^{+0.055}_{−0.055}$, and correspondingly we obtain γ = 0.580$^{+0.110}_{−0.110}$, Ω m = 0.301$^{+0.011}_{−0.011}$, and σ 8 = 0.834$^{+0.032}_{−0.032}$. The measured fσ8 and γ are consistent with the prediction of the Λ cold dark matter model and general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Distributionally Robust Resilience Enhancement Strategy for Distribution Networks Considering Decision-Dependent Contingencies

When performing the resilience enhancement for distribution networks, there are two obstacles to reliably model the uncertain contingencies: 1) decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) due to various line hardening decisions, and 2) distributional ambiguity due to limited outage information during extreme weather events (EWEs). Here, to address these two challenges, this paper develops scenario-wise decision-dependent ambiguity sets (SWDD-ASs), where the DDU and distributional ambiguity inherent in EWE-induced contingencies are simultaneously captured for each possible EWE scenario. Then, a two-stage tri-level decision-dependent distributionally robust resilient enhancement (DD-DRRE) model is formulated, whose outputs include the optimal line hardening, distributed generation (DG) allocation, and proactive network reconfiguration strategy under the worst-case distributions in SWDD-ASs. Subsequently, the DD-DRRE model is equivalently recast to a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP)-based master problem and multiple scenario-wise subproblems, facilitating the adoption of a customized column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. Finally, case studies demonstrate a remarkable improvement in the out-of-sample performance of our model, compared to its prevailing stochastic and robust counterparts. Moreover, the potential values of incorporating the ambiguity and distributional information are quantitatively estimated, providing a useful reference for planners with different budgets and risk-aversion levels.

decision-dependent uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2008

Trajectory Planning by Preserving Flexibility: Metrics and Analysis

In order to support traffic management functions, such as mitigating traffic complexity, ground and airborne systems may benefit from preserving or optimizing trajectory flexibility. To help support this hypothesis trajectory flexibility metrics have been defined in previous work to represent the trajectory robustness and adaptability to the risk of violating safety and traffic management constraints. In this paper these metrics are instantiated in the case of planning a trajectory with the heading degree of freedom. A metric estimation method is presented based on simplifying assumptions, namely discrete time and heading maneuvers. A case is analyzed to demonstrate the estimation method and its use in trajectory planning in a situation involving meeting a time constraint and avoiding loss of separation with nearby traffic. The case involves comparing path-stretch trajectories, in terms of adaptability and robustness along each, deduced from a map of estimated flexibility metrics over the solution space. The case demonstrated anecdotally that preserving flexibility may result in enhancing certain factors that contribute to traffic complexity, namely reducing proximity and confrontation.

Idris, Husni R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Asymptotic consistency of the WSINDy algorithm in the limit of continuum data

In this work we study the asymptotic consistency of the weak-form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics algorithm (WSINDy) in the identification of differential equations from noisy samples of solutions. We prove that the WSINDy estimator is unconditionally asymptotically consistent for a wide class of models that includes the Navier–Stokes, Kuramoto–Sivashinsky and Sine–Gordon equations. We thus provide a mathematically rigorous explanation for the observed robustness to noise of weak-form equation learning. Conversely, we also show that, in general, the WSINDy estimator is only conditionally asymptotically consistent, yielding discovery of spurious terms with probability one if the noise level exceeds a critical threshold σ c . We provide explicit bounds on σ c in the case of Gaussian white noise and we explicitly characterize the spurious terms that arise in the case of trigonometric and/or polynomial libraries. Furthermore, we show that, if the data is suitably denoised (a simple moving average filter is sufficient), then asymptotic consistency is recovered for models with locally-Lipschitz, polynomial-growth nonlinearities. Our results reveal important aspects of weak-form equation learning, which may be used to improve future algorithms. We demonstrate our findings numerically using the Lorenz system, the cubic oscillator, a viscous Burgers-growth model and a Kuramoto–Sivashinsky-type high-order PDE.

asymptotic consistency↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reliability estimation of an advanced nuclear fuel using coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel and determining its reliability is critical for the success of advanced nuclear technologies. However, TRISO failure probabilities are small and the associated computational models are expensive. Here we used coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation to estimate the failure probabilities of TRISO fuels using several 1D and 2D models. With multifidelity modeling, we replaced expensive high-fidelity (HF) model evaluations with information fusion from two low-fidelity (LF) models. For the 1D TRISO models, we considered three multifidelity modeling strategies: only Kriging, Kriging LF prediction plus Kriging correction, and deep neural network (DNN) LF prediction plus Kriging correction. While the results across these multifidelity modeling strategies compared satisfactorily, strategies employing information fusion from two LF models called the HF model least often. Next, for the 2D TRISO model, we considered two multifidelity modeling strategies: DNN LF prediction plus Kriging correction (data-driven) and 1D TRISO LF prediction plus Kriging correction (physics-based). The physics-based strategy, as expected, consistently required the fewest calls to the HF model. However, the data-driven strategy had a lower overall simulation time since the DNN predictions are instantaneous, and the 1D TRISO model requires a non-negligible simulation time.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

mpfit: a robust method for fitting atomic resolution images with multiple Gaussian peaks

The standard technique for sub-pixel estimation of atom positions from atomic resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy images relies on fitting intensity maxima or minima with a two-dimensional Gaussian function. While this is a widespread method of measurement, it can be error prone in images with non-zero aberrations, strong intensity differences between adjacent atoms or in situations where the neighboring atom positions approach the resolution limit of the microscope. Here we demonstrate mpfit, an atom finding algorithm that iteratively calculates a series of overlapping two-dimensional Gaussian functions to fit the experimental dataset and then subsequently uses a subset of the calculated Gaussian functions to perform sub-pixel refinement of atom positions. Based on both simulated and experimental datasets presented in this work, this approach gives lower errors when compared to the commonly used single Gaussian peak fitting approach and demonstrates increased robustness over a wider range of experimental conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observability and Estimation of Distributed Space Systems via Local Information-Exchange Networks

Spacecraft formation flying involves the coordination of states among multiple spacecraft through relative sensing, inter-spacecraft communication, and control. Most existing formation-flying estimation algorithms can only be supported via highly centralized, all-to-all, static relative sensing. New algorithms are proposed that are scalable, modular, and robust to variations in the topology and link characteristics of the formation exchange network. These distributed algorithms rely on a local information exchange network, relaxing the assumptions on existing algorithms. Distributed space systems rely on a signal transmission network among multiple spacecraft for their operation. Control and coordination among multiple spacecraft in a formation is facilitated via a network of relative sensing and interspacecraft communications. Guidance, navigation, and control rely on the sensing network. This network becomes more complex the more spacecraft are added, or as mission requirements become more complex. The observability of a formation state was observed by a set of local observations from a particular node in the formation. Formation observability can be parameterized in terms of the matrices appearing in the formation dynamics and observation matrices. An agreement protocol was used as a mechanism for observing formation states from local measurements. An agreement protocol is essentially an unforced dynamic system whose trajectory is governed by the interconnection geometry and initial condition of each node, with a goal of reaching a common value of interest. The observability of the interconnected system depends on the geometry of the network, as well as the position of the observer relative to the topology. For the first time, critical GN&C (guidance, navigation, and control estimation) subsystems are synthesized by bringing the contribution of the spacecraft information-exchange network to the forefront of algorithmic analysis and design. The result is a formation estimation algorithm that is modular and robust to variations in the topology and link properties of the underlying formation network.

Fathpour, Nanaz↗
DOE OSTI2023

Residual estimation for grid modification in wall-modeled large eddy simulation using unstructured high-order methods

Here, the accuracy and computational cost of a large eddy simulation are highly dependent on the computational grid. Building optimal grids manually from a priori knowledge is not feasible in most practical use cases; instead, solution-adaptive strategies can provide a robust and cost-efficient method to generate a grid with the desired accuracy. We adapt the residual estimation algorithm developed by Toosi and Larsson for Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements Methods (DGSEM) to guide the grid-adaptation process. The core of the method is the computation of the estimated modeling residual using the polynomial basis functions used in DGSEM, and the averaging of the estimated residual over each element. The final method is assessed in multiple channel flow test cases and for the transonic flow over an airfoil, in both cases making use of mortar interfaces between elements with hanging nodes. The method is found to be robust and reliable, and to provide solutions on grids with significantly fewer elements at comparable accuracy compared to when using human-generated grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1989

Modifying high-order aeroelastic math model of a jet transport using maximum likelihood estimation

The design of control laws to damp flexible structural modes requires accurate math models. Unlike the design of control laws for rigid body motion (e.g., where robust control is used to compensate for modeling inaccuracies), structural mode damping usually employs narrow band notch filters. In order to obtain the required accuracy in the math model, maximum likelihood estimation technique is employed to improve the accuracy of the math model using flight data. Presented here are all phases of this methodology: (1) pre-flight analysis (i.e., optimal input signal design for flight test, sensor location determination, model reduction technique, etc.), (2) data collection and preprocessing, and (3) post-flight analysis (i.e., estimation technique and model verification). In addition, a discussion is presented of the software tools used and the need for future study in this field.

Anissipour, Amir A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-sensor fusion for robust autonomous flight in indoor and outdoor environments with a rotorcraft micro-aerial vehicle (MAV)

The subject matter described herein includes a modular and extensible approach to integrate noisy measurements from multiple heterogeneous sensors that yield either absolute or relative observations at different and varying time intervals, and to provide smooth and globally consistent estimates of position in real time for autonomous flight. We describe the development of the algorithms and software architecture for a new 1.9 kg MAV platform equipped with an IMU, laser scanner, stereo cameras, pressure altimeter, magnetometer, and a GPS receiver, in which the state estimation and control are performed onboard on an Intel NUC 3rd generation i3 processor. We illustrate the robustness of our framework in large-scale, indoor-outdoor autonomous aerial navigation experiments involving traversals of over 440 meters at average speeds of 1.5 m/s with winds around 10 mph while entering and exiting buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: covariance modelling and its impact on parameter estimation and quality of fit

ABSTRACT We describe and test the fiducial covariance matrix model for the combined two-point function analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES-Y3) data set. Using a variety of new ansatzes for covariance modelling and testing, we validate the assumptions and approximations of this model. These include the assumption of Gaussian likelihood, the trispectrum contribution to the covariance, the impact of evaluating the model at a wrong set of parameters, the impact of masking and survey geometry, deviations from Poissonian shot noise, galaxy weighting schemes, and other sub-dominant effects. We find that our covariance model is robust and that its approximations have little impact on goodness of fit and parameter estimation. The largest impact on best-fitting figure-of-merit arises from the so-called fsky approximation for dealing with finite survey area, which on average increases the χ2 between maximum posterior model and measurement by $3.7{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (Δχ2 ≈ 18.9). Standard methods to go beyond this approximation fail for DES-Y3, but we derive an approximate scheme to deal with these features. For parameter estimation, our ignorance of the exact parameters at which to evaluate our covariance model causes the dominant effect. We find that it increases the scatter of maximum posterior values for Ωm and σ8 by about $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and for the dark energy equation-of-state parameter by about $5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1995

State Estimation of Main Rotor Flap and Lead-Lag Using Accelerometers and Laser Transducers on the RASCAL UH-60 Helicopter

Modern rotorcraft flight control system designs which promise to yield high vehicle response bandwidth and good gust rejection can benefit from the use of rotor-state feedbacks. The measurement of main rotor blade motions is also desirable to validate and improve rotorcraft simulation models, to identify high-order linear flight dynamics models, to provide rotor system health monitoring; during flight test, and to provide for correlation with acoustic measurements from wind tunnel and flight tests. However, few attempts have been made to instrument a flight vehicle in this manner, and no previous system has had the robustness and accuracy required for these diverse applications. A rotor blade motion measurement and estimation system has been developed by NASA and the U.S. Army for use on the Rotorcraft Aircrew Systems Concepts Airborne Laboratory (RASCAL) helicopter. RASCAL is a UH-60 Blackhawk which is being modified at Ames Research Center in a phased development program for use in flight dynamics and controls, navigation, airspace management, and rotorcraft human factors research. The aircraft will feature a full-authority, digital, fly-by-wire research flight control system; a coupled ring laser gyro, differential GPS based navigation system; a stereoscopic color wide field of view helmet, mounted display; programmable panel mounted displays; and advanced navigation sensors. The rotor blade motion system is currently installed for data acquisition only, but will be integrated with the research flight control system when it is installed later this year.

Fletcher, Jay W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Acceleration of Solvation Free Energy Calculation via Thermodynamic Integration Coupled with Gaussian Process Regression and Improved Gelman–Rubin Convergence Diagnostics

The determination of the solvation free energy of ions and molecules holds profound importance across a spectrum of applications spanning chemistry, biology, energy storage, and the environment. Molecular dynamics simulations are powerful tools for computing this critical parameter. Nevertheless, the accurate and efficient calculation of the solvation free energy becomes a formidable endeavor when dealing with complex systems characterized by potent Coulombic interactions and sluggish ion dynamics and, consequently, slow transition across various metastable states. Here, in the present study, we expose limitations stemming from the conventional calculation of the statistical inefficiency g in the thermodynamic integration method, a factor that can hinder the determination of convergence of the solvation free energy and its associated uncertainty. Instead, we propose a robust scheme based on Gelman–Rubin convergence diagnostics. We leverage this improved estimation of uncertainties to introduce an innovative accelerated thermodynamic integration method based on the Gaussian Process regression. This methodology is applied to the calculation of the solvation free energy of trivalent rare-earth elements immersed in ionic liquids, a scenario in which the aforementioned challenges render standard approaches ineffective. The proposed method proves to be effective in computing solvation free energy in situations where traditional thermodynamic integration methods fall short.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing the galaxy–halo connection with total satellite luminosity

ABSTRACT We demonstrate how the total luminosity in satellite galaxies is a powerful probe of dark matter haloes around central galaxies. The method cross-correlates central galaxies in spectroscopic galaxy samples with fainter galaxies detected in photometric surveys. Using models, we show that the total galaxy luminosity, Lsat, scales linearly with host halo mass, making Lsat an excellent proxy for Mh. Lsat is also sensitive to the formation time of the halo. We demonstrate that probes of galaxy large-scale environment can break this degeneracy. Although this is an indirect probe of the halo, it yields a high signal-to-noise ratio measurement for galaxies expected to occupy haloes at <1012 M⊙, where other methods suffer from larger errors. In this paper, we focus on observational and theoretical systematics in the Lsat method. We test the robustness of our method of finding central galaxies and our methods of estimating the number of background galaxies. We implement this method on galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data, with satellites identified in fainter imaging data. We find excellent agreement between our theoretical predictions and the observational measurements. Finally, we compare our Lsat measurements to weak lensing estimates of Mh for red and blue subsamples. In the stellar mass range where the measurements overlap, we find consistent results, where red galaxies live in larger haloes. However, the Lsat approach allows us to probe significantly lower mass galaxies. At these masses, the Lsat values are equivalent. This example shows the potential of Lsat as a probe of dark haloes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for parity violation in SDSS DR16 Lyman-α forest data

The four-point correlation function is the lowest order correlation function for scalar fields that can be used to probe statistical parity invariance in an isotropic universe. There are intriguing claims of detection of parity violation in the 4-point function of BOSS galaxy clustering data. We apply the same estimator to the public SDSS Data Release 16 Lyman-α forest data. Lyman-α forest data probes a different redshift range and is sensitive to a different density regime using a completely different technique. A detection would therefore be a strong indication of new physics. We identify an accurate covariance matrix as a crucial impediment to performing this measurement accurately, consistent with existing literature on galaxy 4-point function. Here, we discuss several approaches to estimating the covariance matrix, several of which produce spurious detection. Using a robust, but very suboptimal, covariance matrix derived from subsample bootstrapping, we find no evidence for parity violation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗