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At least 613 records · Page 34

Integrating risk assessment methods for carbon storage: A case study for the quest carbon capture and storage facility

This paper documents how tools developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) complement the Bowtie risk assessment approach through the demonstration of a risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facility near Edmonton, Alberta with the NRAP Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP Open-IAM). The Bowtie risk assessment for the Quest CCS site was developed by Shell Canada Ltd., who operates the asset on behalf of the Athabasca Oil Sand Project — a joint venture, owned by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, Chevron Canada and Shell Canada Ltd. The Quest Bowtie treats site risk comprehensively – considering a large set of technical and project risks (e.g., operational risks, above ground infrastructure, public perception, etc.). NRAP tools, methods, and analyses are focused on quantitative assessment of subsurface technical risks. NRAP-Open-IAM was used to evaluate potential groundwater impacts at the Quest site, i.e., a sufficient change above background groundwater quality levels to be measurable, should CO 2 and/or brine leak from the reservoir via a faulty and/or compromised wellbore. Our results show there is a low potential for groundwater impact and support a further reduction (from ~460 to 100 km 2 ) to the established AoR for the Quest site. Integrating both approaches early in the site characterization period could significantly benefit commercial-scale projects by drastically reducing the region over which leakage risks (e.g., legacy wells) need to be evaluated, i.e., the AoR. This is especially true for brownfield sites, which could contain hundreds to thousands of legacy wells. Further, basing monitoring network design on those regions where impacts are most likely to occur has the potential to facilitate more efficient deployment of monitoring technologies and improve the likelihood of detecting a leak should one occur.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A robust statistical analysis of the role of hydropower on the system electricity price and price volatility

Abstract Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage and large reservoir storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid (S. Rehman, L M Al-Hadhrami, and M M Alam), (2015 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , 44 , 586–98). This study examines the impact of hydropower on system electricity price and price volatility in the region served by the New England Independent System Operator (ISONE) from 2014-2020 (ISONE, ISO New England Web Services API v1.1 .” https://webservices.iso-ne.com/docs/v1.1/ , 2021. Accessed: 2021-01-10). We perform a robust holistic analysis of the mean and quantile effects, as well as the marginal contributing effects of hydropower in the presence of solar and wind resources. First, the price data is adjusted for deterministic temporal trends, correcting for seasonal, weekend, and diurnal effects that may obscure actual representative trends in the data. Using multiple linear regression and quantile regression, we observe that hydropower contributes to a reduction in the system electricity price and price volatility. While hydropower has a weak impact on decreasing price and volatility at the mean, it has greater impact at extreme quantiles (>70th percentile). At these higher percentiles, we find that hydropower provides a stabilizing effect on price volatility in the presence of volatile resources such as wind. We conclude with a discussion of the observed relationship between hydropower and system electricity price and volatility.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Editorial: Subsurface microbiology within hydrocarbon resources or stored gases

A Research Topic on the microbiology of hydrocarbon and gas storage reservoirs has far reaching industrial applications. In recent decades, there has been a growing interest in understanding microbial communities in subsurface energy reservoirs, such as coal, oil, and shale beds. This area of research has broadened to include gas storage reservoirs for hydrogen and CO 2 . Scientists are beginning to unravel the unexpected impact microorganisms have on these systems, through changing the fluid geochemistry, the gas content, and even the permeability. By recognizing the influence of these tiny organisms on our engineered environments, we can develop better risk assessments, target mitigation strategies, expand energy production, and refine operational guidance, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable energy future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Salt Vessel-Sample Generator Interface

The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches for interfacing relevant unit operations with salt analysis to improve the timeliness and accuracy of sampling-based accountancy measurements. One technology under development is a vacuum sampler loop module. In this system, molten salt is drawn from a process vessel through a heated sampling line and into a charge vessel. Next, one or more samples are split from the volume in the charge vessel and the remaining salt is returned to the process. The vacuum sampler loop module is being developed to interface with other sample processing and analysis modules to enable rapid at-line sample characterization. The main purpose of the vacuum sampling loop module is to enable the collection of samples that are more representative of the bulk salt by replacing traditional point samplers (i.e., dip probes) with a sampling approach that captures a larger cross section of salt. Additionally, the vacuum sampling approach eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. Two methods of interfacing the vacuum sampling loop with a precision pneumatic sample generator were investigated in FY21. This report covers the testing of fluidic coupling between the two modules. Two iterations of the fluidically coupled modules were tested. The first iteration system coupled the two modules using a freeze valve to seal the vacuum sampler during filling and to control flow into the pneumatic sample generator. While this integrated system functioned as intended, some changes were implemented to make the system more robust and better suited to remote deployment. Specifically, the system was made to be more modular and active control of the vacuum filling operation was replaced with a passive control mechanism. For passive filling, the salt charge vessel was vented to a small gas tank that was at negative pressure, causing salt to be drawn into the vessel until the force of the fluid head was in equilibrium with the gas pressure. The passive control system performed well and will be used in future iterations. Another change in the second system was a newly configured pneumatic sample generator in which sample ejection occurred through a hole in the reservoir’s stainless-steel side wall instead of through a non-wetted sapphire orifice on the bottom. This alternate configuration may be better suited for near-process deployment because it enables on-line orifice maintenance and an orifice bypass drain back to the process. A third change in the second iteration system was the transition to a two-chamber charge vessel which split off a fraction of the sampled salt as a liquid aliquot. The goal was to create a buffer mechanism that would allow reproducible aliquoting of samples, independently of variability in the charge vessel fill height. While the two-chamber design was functional, the sample size reproducibility was below target values. To improve reproducibility and overcome many of the impediments to remote deployment of the vacuum sampling loop module, separate work was conducted to replace the two-chamber liquid aliquoting mechanism with aliquoting into single-use sample tubes. Solid salt transfer in the sample tubes will replace fluidic coupling for integrating the vacuum sampler with downstream modules. Because the proposed operations can all be executed with simple overhead actuation mechanisms or other existing hot-cell technology, there will be no need for large investments in novel hot cell sample handling technologies using this alternate approach. As such, near-term deployment of the vacuum sampling technology will be achievable. This new approach for automated coupling of sample tubes with down-stream modules is covered in a separate FY21 report, and a remotely operated version of the vacuum sampler loop module with the tube aliquoting feature is planned for FY22.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Time-lapse VSP integration and calibration of subsurface stress field utilizing machine learning approaches: A case study of the morrow B formation, FWU

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse vertical seismic profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is a region around the injector well located within Farnsworth field unit (FWU), where there is an ongoing CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operation. In our study, a site-specific rock physics model was created from extensive geological, geophysical, and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the characterization well within the study area. Here, the Biot-Gassmann workflow was utilized to combine the rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the seismic velocity change due to fluid substitution. Modeled seismic velocities attributed to mean effective stress were determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer (PSO) was utilized to minimize a penalty function created between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Experiments on solar photovoltaic power generation using concentrator and liquid cooling

Calculations and experimental data are presented leading to the development of a practical, economical solar photovoltaic power supply. The concept involves concentration of sunlight up to about 100 times normal solar intensity in a solar tracking collector and directing this to an array of solar cells. The cells are immersed in water circulated from a thermal reservoir which limits cell temperature rise to about 20 C above ambient during the day and which cools to ambient temperature during the night. Experiments were conducted on solar cells using a Fresnel lens for magnification, a telescope equatorial mount with clock drive, and tap water circulated through the solar cell holder cavity. Test results show that cells operate satisfactorily under these conditions. Power outputs achieved experimentally with cell optimized for 25 suns were linear with concentration to about 15 suns. Cells optimized for 100 suns were not available, but a corresponding linear relation of power output with concentration is anticipated. Test results have been used in a design analysis of the cost of systems utilizing this technique.

Beam, B. H.↗

Cryogenic Shutter Mechanism

Electromagnetic shutter mechanism operates at ambient and cryogenic temperatures to shield optical element, such as mirror, filter, polarizer, beam splitter, or detector, from external light and radiation in cryogenic Dewar equipped with window for optical evaluation. Shutter mechanism in Dewar container alternately shields and exposes optical element as paddle rotates between mechanical stops. Mounted on cold plate of liquid-helium reservoir. Paddle, shaft, and magnet constitutes assembly rotated by electromagnetic field on coil.

Barney, Richard D.↗

Investigation of remote sensing techniques as inputs to operational resource management

The author has identified the following significant results. Visual interpretation of 1:125,000 color LANDSAT prints produced timely level 1 maps of accuracies in excess of 80% for agricultural land identification. Accurate classification of agricultural land via digital analysis of LANDSAT CCT's required precise timing of the date of data collection with mid to late June optimum for western South Dakota. The LANDSAT repetitive nine day cycle over the state allowed the surface areas of stockdams and small reservoir systems to be monitored to provide a timely approximation of surface water conditions on the range. Combined use of DIRS, K-class, and LANDSAT CCT's demonstrated the ability to produce aspen maps of greater detail and timeliness than was available using US Forest Service maps. Visual temporal analyses of LANDSAT imagery improved highway map drainage information and were used to prepare a seven county drainage network. An optimum map of flood-prone areas was developed, utilizing high altitude aerial photography and USGS maps.

Schmer, F. A.↗

Integrity Monitoring of Mercury Discharge Lamps

Mercury discharge lamps are critical in many trapped ion frequency standard applications. An integrity monitoring system can be implemented using end-of-life signatures observed in operational mercury discharge lamps, making it possible to forecast imminent failure and to take action to mitigate the consequences (such as switching to a redundant system). Mercury lamps are used as a source of 194-nm ultraviolet radiation for optical pumping and state selection of mercury trapped ion frequency standards. Lamps are typically fabricated using 202Hg distilled into high-purity quartz, or other 194-nm transmitting material (e.g., sapphire). A buffer gas is also placed into the bulb, typically a noble gas such as argon, neon, or krypton. The bulbs are driven by strong RF fields oscillating at .200 MHz. The lamp output may age over time by two internal mechanisms: (1) the darkening of the bulb that attenuates light transmission and (2) the loss of mercury due to migration or chemical interactions with the bulb surface. During fabrication, excess mercury is placed into a bulb, so that the loss rate is compensated with new mercury emanating from a cool tip or adjacent reservoir. The light output is nearly constant or varies slightly at a constant rate for many months/years until the mercury source is depleted. At this point, the vapor pressure abruptly falls and the total light output and atomic clock SNR (signal-to-noise ratio) decrease. After several days to weeks, the light levels decrease to a point where the atomic clock SNR is no longer sufficient to stay in lock, or the lamp self-extinguishes. This signature has been observed in four separate end-of-life lamp failures while operating in the Deep Space Network (DSN). A simple integrator circuit can observe and document steady-state lamp behavior. When the light levels drop over a predetermined time interval by a specified amount (e.g., 20 percent), an alarm is set. For critical operational applications, such as the DSN or in space flight, this warning provides notice that a failure may be imminent, and for operators or control algorithm to take action.

Tjoelker, Robert L.↗

xesn: Echo state networks powered by Xarray and Dask

Xesn is a Python package that allows scientists to easily design Echo State Networks (ESNs) for forecasting problems. ESNs are a Recurrent Neural Network architecture introduced by Jaeger (2001) that are part of a class of techniques termed Reservoir Computing. One defining characteristic of these techniques is that all internal weights are determined by a handful of global, scalar parameters, thereby avoiding problems during backpropagation and reducing training time significantly. Because this architecture is conceptually simple, many scientists implement ESNs from scratch, leading to questions about computational performance. Xesn offers a straightforward, standard implementation of ESNs that operates efficiently on CPU and GPU hardware. The package leverages optimization tools to automate the parameter selection process, so that scientists can reduce the time finding a good architecture and focus on using ESNs for their domain application. Importantly, the package flexibly handles forecasting tasks for out-of-core, multi-dimensional datasets, eliminating the need to write parallel programming code. Xesn was initially developed to handle the problem of forecasting weather dynamics, and so it integrates naturally with Python packages that have become familiar to weather and climate scientists such as Xarray (Hoyer & Hamman, 2017). However, the software is ultimately general enough to be utilized in other domains where ESNs have been useful, such as in signal processing (Jaeger & Haas, 2004).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

LLNL 5-2428: Fracture Permeability and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameteruncertainty and better predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites.We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. This capability will enable improvedengineering decisions at Utah FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. Utah FORGE management and future EGS operators may employ results of THMC+E models for decision making purposes throughout the lifetime of the field operation. For example, before production well installation, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite ofpossible well locations and flow rates, thus enabling evaluation of optimal production well placement. Such efforts will be conducted throughout the lifetime of the project, whereby additional laboratory experiments will constrain key model parameters and machine learning (ML) will reduce the size of the parameter space and the associated uncertainty. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Entropic uncertainty relation at finite temperature

We discussed how much information is lost when a particle is in equilibrium with the thermal reservoir of temperature T = 1/beta. The universal temperature correction to the r.h.s. of U(X,P:psi) greater than or = 1 + ln(pi) is determined. For this purpose, it is convenient to employ the framework of thermo-field dynamics (TFD). This formulation of finite-temperature (T not = 0) quantum theory utilizes the doubled Hilbert space, the normal operator (A) acting on the objective space, and its corresponding tildian operator on the fictitious space. The physical probability density associated with the measurement of the normal operator, A, is given, and the information entropy at T not = 0 is defined. The results describe how the thermal disturbance effects in S sub X or S sub P (delta X or delta P) can be suppressed by squeezing with keeping U = S sub X + S sub P (delta X x delta P) its minimum value.

Abe, Sumiyoshi↗

Assessing Impacts on Pressure Stabilization and Leasing Acreage for CO 2 Storage Utilizing Oil Migration Concepts

Favorable geological storage for CO 2 has long been pictured as large anticlines with thick sandstones, similar to oil reservoirs in the petroleum system. Unlike oil, however, stored CO 2 does not need to be recoverable, which raises the possibility of using dissolution and residual trapping to augment the capacity of buoyant traps and tap more of the bulk rock volume. The work presented builds on that idea, asking the following question: If we inject CO 2 down to a syncline – analogous to the carrier bed in the petroleum system – how would this injection mechanism impact storage capacity and plume shape, migration, and stabilization? To address this question, we built a reservoir model, based on seismic interpretation of Middle Miocene strata, offshore Galveston, Texas. 3-D seismic and well logs were used to characterize key intervals. Reservoirs chosen for modeling are progradational-aggradational sands with mud intercalation. They have a higher degree of heterogeneity than the more conventional reservoirs commonly targeted for CO 2 storage. Modeling investigated how far the CO 2 plume would migrate under two scenarios: (1) injecting CO 2 at the base of the salt withdrawal basin (syncline scenario) and (2) injecting CO 2 at the base of the structural closure, similar to a common injection well location for EOR purposes (base scenario). For each scenario, we separately simulated injection of 30 MT of CO 2 and 60 MT of CO 2 continuously for 30 years and observe the plume and pressure evolution for 100 years after the injection stops. The simulation shows that injecting the CO 2 into a syncline limits the vertical migration of CO 2 , thus making synclinal injection more secure. In the syncline scenario, the geological layer around the injection point is more heterogeneous than the layer in the base scenario; thus, the CO 2 tends to migrate laterally. Additionally, in the syncline scenario, the plume does not even reach the upper part of the anticline, allowing us to safely store an additional amount of CO 2 into the reservoir. Furthermore, the simulation also shows that in the syncline scenario, the times needed for the reservoir to reach its stabilized pressure after the end of injections are faster. To summarize, CO 2 injection at the base of a syncline could provide additional storage, increase the safety of the project from the limited vertical plume migration, and expedite plume stabilization, which could result in the decrease of monitoring frequency as the project runs, thus lowering the operating cost of the project in the long run.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Detection of False Data Injection Attacks in Battery Stacks Using Input Noise-Aware Nonlinear State Estimation and Cumulative Sum Algorithms

Grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are vulnerable to false data injection attacks (FDIAs), which could be used to disrupt state of charge (SoC) estimation. Inaccurate SoC estimation has negative impacts on system availability, reliability, safety, and the cost of operation. In this article a combination of a Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm and an improved input noise-aware extended Kalman filter (INAEKF) is proposed for the detection and identification of FDIAs in the voltage and current sensors of a battery stack. The series-connected stack is represented by equivalent circuit models, the SoC is modeled with a charge reservoir model and the states are estimated using the INAEKF. Further, the root mean squared error of the states’ estimation by the modified INAEKF was found to be superior to the traditional EKF. By employing the INAEKF, this article addresses the research gap that many state estimators make asymmetrical assumptions about the noise corrupting the system. Additionally, the INAEKF estimates the input allowing for the identification of FDIA, which many alternative methods are unable to achieve. The proposed algorithm was able to detect attacks in the voltage and current sensors in 99.16% of test cases, with no false positives. Utilizing the INAEKF compared to the standard EKF allowed for the identification of FDIA in the input of the system in 98.43% of test cases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Environmental parameters of the Tennessee River in Alabama. 1: Thermal stratification

Thermal stratification data of a transect across Wheeler Reservoir are correlated with the climatological data at the time of sampling. This portion of the Tennessee River is used as a heat sink for the effluent from the three reactor Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant. The transect sampling line is 1.3 miles below this point of effluence. Data are presented by weekly samplings for one year prior to plant operations. Post-operational data are presented with one reactor in operation and with two reactors in partial operation. Data gathering was terminated when the plant ceased operations. The results indicate that the effluent for partial plant operation were inconclusive. As a result, recommendations include continuing the sampling when the plant resumes operation at full capacity. Recommendations also include developing math models with the presented thermal and climatological data to be used for predicting the effluent impact in the river with varying climatological conditions and also to predict the effectiveness of the cooling towers.

Rosing, L. M.↗

Cooling options for Astromag

A comparison of the various cooling options for the Astromag particle physics experiment is presented. The baseline design for the cryogenic system involves using a natural circulation fountain-effect driven flow loop (Hofmann type). The present paper considers two alternative options for cooling. The first design involves a thermal strap made of a high-conductivity metal, e.g., high-purity aluminum or copper, which connects the coil to the helium reservoir. Venting helium vapor can also be used to minimize the temperature of the magnet and recover from a quench. The second design is based on an He II heat pipe concept where steady state heat transport is by counterflow. Cavitation is prevented by use of a porous plug. Forced flow He II is also available but only during extraordinary operating conditions.

Maytal, B. Z.↗

The Minitron system for growth of small plants under controlled environment conditions

The design and operation of a system is described in which small plants can be grown under controlled environment conditions. Important features of this 'Minitron' system include precise control of temperature and CO2 concentration in a flowing atmosphere. Plants can be grown either hydroponically or in solid root support medium. For either culture method, nutrient solution or water is added from an external reservoir, altering neither atmospheric composition nor temperature equilibrium within a closed Minitron chamber.

Akers, Carolyn P.↗

Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations

Abstract Lakes Mead and Powell in the Colorado River Basin underpin water and hydropower supply for the western United States. While the policies currently regulating the basin will expire by 2026, planning remains challenging due to intertwined climate variability and policy uncertainties. Based on streamflow projections from 10 dynamically downscaled CMIP6 global climate models and unique methods that add and remove internal variability, we evaluate future conditions at Powell and Mead under existing and alternative policies. Due to projected streamflow declines, under existing policy, both reservoirs will face substantial risks (>80% likelihood) of reaching dead pool before 2060. Adopting recently proposed alternative policies reduces but doesn’t eliminate such risks. All policies also exhibit tipping points where reservoir levels can change rapidly with a slight change in streamflow. A sustainable policy may require larger reductions to further reduce the reservoirs’ dead pool risks and provide better buffers from sudden changes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗