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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Supplement to M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Performance-Based Contracts Version 4.0

Measurement and verification (M&V) are key to determining and confirming the continued operation of, and savings associated with, performance-based contracts. The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) updates these guidelines to reflect the evolution of M&V to incorporate industry best practices and ensure that savings from these performance-based projects are properly planned, communicated, and realized. FEMP released M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Federal Energy Projects Version 3.0 in 2008. This document was developed with input from industry-government working groups, previous M&V guideline authors, and national laboratory subject matter experts. The document provided the methods and guidelines, with a focus on federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). When FEMP released M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Performance-Based Contracts Version 4.0 in 2015, FEMP expanded the intended audience to include anyone (energy managers, procurement officers, and contractors) involved in implementing performance-based contracts. The streamlined M&V Guidelines Version 4.0 provided the procedures and guidelines needed to quantify savings resulting from installing energy-efficient equipment, water conservation, improved operation and maintenance (O&M), renewable energy, and cogeneration projects with a performance-based contract; however, it removed some of the associated details on topics such as developing regression models and sampling plans. The details and information provided in M&V Guidelines v. 3.0 are still pertinent to M&V for performance-based contracts. The objective is to keep FEMP M&V version 4.0 condensed, providing the reference document for specifying M&V methods and procedures and a resource for developing project-specific M&V plans; this supplement provides additional details. The content of this supplement has been updated to include pertinent revisions between M&V version 3.0 and M&V version 4.0 by providing details and updating the content to ensure relevancy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Predict Novel Eutectic Alloys

The goal of this project was to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the fractional composition and melting point of eutectic alloys using fundamental atomic properties as inputs. The fundamental properties considered include atomic number, atomic weight, atomic radius, valence electron concentration, electronegativity, and electron affinity. The project involved several phases, starting with data preparation, where phase diagram data was harvested from the ASM International database. Approximately 1300 binary eutectics were collected and cleaned to ensure relevance and accuracy. A regression model was selected for training, utilizing a rectified linear unit as the activation function. Various model configurations were evaluated for predictive accuracy, with validation techniques employed to ensure robustness. The model demonstrated predictive capabilities above random guessing and was able to achieve up to 11% accuracy under certain conditions. An ablative test identified atomic radius and valence electron concentration as critical inputs for model performance. Incorporating the melting point of atomic constituents improved accuracy significantly, although ultimately the model’s predictive capability still fell short of the 80% target. This report details the methodology, results, and implications of the research, contributing to the understanding of employing artificial intelligence to predict the phase transition behavior of eutectic alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sex comparisons in physiological and cognitive performance during hypoxic challenge

Within the tactical aviation community, human performance research lags in considering potential psychophysiological differences between male and female aviators due to little inclusion of females during the design and development of aircraft systems. A poor understanding of how male and female aviators differ with respect to human performance results in unknown potential sex differences on aeromedically relevant environmental stressors, perchance leading to suboptimal performance, safety, and health guidelines. For example, previous hypoxia studies have excluded female participants or lacked a sizeable sample to examine sex comparisons. As such, progress toward sensor development and improving hypoxia familiarization training are stunted due to limited knowledge of how individual differences, including sex, may or may not underlie hypoxia symptoms and performance impairment. Investigating sex differences bridges the gap between aerospace medicine and operational health, and addressing hypoxia is one of many facets yet to be studied. In the current study, we retrospectively examined N = 6 hypoxia studies with male-female participant samples (total, N = 189; male, n = 118; female, n = 71). We explored sex as a predictor of physiological response, sensory deficits, the severity of cognitive performance declines, and symptom manifestation via linear and binary logistic regression models. We found that the female sex predicted lower peripheral oxygen saturation and the likelihood of headache reporting in response to hypoxic challenge, yet explained little variance when combined with age and body mass index. The sensory and cognitive performance models did not converge, suggesting high intra-individual variability. Together, sex, age, and body mass index were not the most robust predictors in responses to hypoxic challenge; we cannot infer this for sensory deficits and cognitive performance within an experimentally induced hypoxic environment. The findings have implications for improving hypoxia familiarization training, monitoring sensor development, and emergency response and recovery protocols in case of a hypoxia occurrence suitable for all aircrew. We recommend continuing to elucidate the impact of sex and intrapersonal differences in hypoxia and other aeromedically relevant stressors in tactical aviation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Abundance of Major Cell Wall Components in Natural Variants and Pedigrees of Populus trichocarpa

The rapid analysis of biopolymers including lignin and sugars in lignocellulosic biomass cell walls is essential for the analysis of the large sample populations needed for identifying heritable genetic variation in biomass feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts. In this study, we reported the analysis of cell wall lignin content, syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio, as well as glucose and xylose content by high-throughput pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) for >3,600 samples derived from hundreds of accessions of Populus trichocarpa from natural populations, as well as pedigrees constructed from 14 parents (7 × 7). Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression models were built from the samples of known sugar composition previously determined by hydrolysis followed by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis. Key spectral features positively correlated with glucose content consisted of m/z 126, 98, and 69, among others, deriving from pyrolyzates such as hydroxymethylfurfural, maltol, and other sugar-derived species. Xylose content positively correlated primarily with many lignin-derived ions and to a lesser degree with m/z 114, deriving from a lactone produced from xylose pyrolysis. Models were capable of predicting glucose and xylose contents with an average error of less than 4%, and accuracy was significantly improved over previously used methods. The differences in the models constructed from the two sample sets varied in training sample number, but the genetic and compositional uniformity of the pedigree set could be a potential driver in the slightly better performance of that model in comparison with the natural variants. Broad-sense heritability of glucose and xylose composition using these data was 0.32 and 0.34, respectively. In summary, we have demonstrated the use of a single high-throughput method to predict sugar and lignin composition in thousands of poplar samples to estimate the heritability and phenotypic plasticity of traits necessary to develop optimized feedstocks for bioenergy applications.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

COVID-19 vaccination status, side effects, and perceptions among breast cancer survivors: a cross-sectional study in China

Introduction Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, vaccination data of this population are limited. Methods A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 vaccination was conducted in China. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination status. Results Of 2,904 participants, 50.2% were vaccinated with acceptable side effects. Most of the participants received inactivated virus vaccines. The most common reason for vaccination was “fear of infection” (56.2%) and “workplace/government requirement” (33.1%). While the most common reason for nonvaccination was “worry that vaccines cause breast cancer progression or interfere with treatment” (72.9%) and “have concerns about side effects or safety” (39.6%). Patients who were employed (odds ratio, OR = 1.783, p = 0.015), had stage I disease at diagnosis (OR = 2.008, p = 0.019), thought vaccines could provide protection (OR = 1.774, p = 0.007), thought COVID-19 vaccines were safe, very safe, not safe, and very unsafe (OR = 2.074, p < 0.001; OR = 4.251, p < 0.001; OR = 2.075, p = 0.011; OR = 5.609, p = 0.003, respectively) were more likely to receive vaccination. Patients who were 1–3 years, 3–5 years, and more than 5 years after surgery (OR = 0.277, p < 0.001; OR = 0.277, p < 0.001, OR = 0.282, p < 0.001, respectively), had a history of food or drug allergies (OR = 0.579, p = 0.001), had recently undergone endocrine therapy (OR = 0.531, p < 0.001) were less likely to receive vaccination. Conclusion COVID-19 vaccination gap exists in breast cancer survivors, which could be filled by raising awareness and increasing confidence in vaccine safety during cancer treatment, particularly for the unemployed individuals.

Xu, Yali↗
DOE OSTI2025

The relationship between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and the child’s experience of school at age 9

Background At age 5, while only embarking on their educational journey, substantial differences in children’s cognitive ability will already exist. The aim of this study was to examine the causal association between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and child-reported experience of school and self-concept, and teacher-reported class engagement and emotional-behavioural function at age 9 years. Methods This longitudinal cohort study used data from 7,392 children in the Growing Up in Ireland Infant Cohort, who had completed the Picture Similarities and Naming Vocabulary subtests of the British Abilities Scales at age 5. Principal components analysis was used to produce a composite general cognitive ability score for each child. Children with a general cognitive ability score more than 1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean at age 5 were categorised as ‘Below Average Cognitive Ability’ (BACA), and those scoring above this as ‘Typical Cognitive Development’ (TCD). The outcomes of interest, measured at age 9, were child-reported experience of school, child’s self-concept, teacher-reported class engagement, and teacher-reported emotional behavioural function. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between BACA and these outcomes. Results Compared to those with TCD, those with BACA had significantly higher odds of never liking school [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.82, 95% CI 1.37–2.43, p < 0.001], of being picked on (AOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09–1.48) and of picking on others (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.27–1.84). They had significantly higher odds of experiencing low self-concept (AOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.42) and emotional-behavioural difficulties (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.63, p = 0.003). Compared to those with TCD, children with BACA had significantly higher odds of hardly ever or never being interested, motivated and excited to learn (AOR 2.29, 95% CI 1.70–3.10). Conclusion Children with BACA at school-entry had significantly higher odds of reporting a negative school experience and low self-concept at age 9. They had significantly higher odds of having teacher-reported poor class engagement and problematic emotional-behavioural function at age 9. The findings of this study suggest BACA has a causal role in these adverse outcomes. Early childhood policy and intervention design should be cognisant of the important role of cognitive ability in school and childhood outcomes.

Bowe, Andrea K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Sensor Optimal Motion Planning for Radiological Contamination Surveys by Using Prediction-Difference Maps

Distributed and networked mobile sensor platforms using unmanned aerial and/or ground vehicles to survey areas of interest offer a safer and more efficient method for radiological contamination mapping; however, most applications rely on uniformly sweeping of the area in a raster-type motion without utilizing the information available in a dynamic sense. We have developed a fully autonomous optimal motion planning procedure for networks with two or more mobile sensors. The procedure utilizes well-established concepts of Gaussian processes in combination with control laws based on centroidal Voronoi tessellations to achieve optimal next-iteration sensor movements. A new method of informing optimal motion planning is proposed, whereby the absolute difference between the prior and current full-map prediction, referred to as the prediction-difference map, is used as the spatial density function within each Voronoi cell, providing immediate and iterative feedback for dynamic use of available information. The Gaussian process regression model used to estimate the contamination in unvisited locations also provides prediction uncertainties, and can be used as a quantitative metric to assess the confidence in the calculated contamination map; these estimates and prediction uncertainties are unavailable for standard uniform survey routines as they can only produce maps in the vicinity of observed locations. We present through simulation the achievable performance gains from using this new method by directly comparing to a uniform survey method. Results show that using the prediction-difference maps to inform motion planning procedures offers a faster rate of producing an accurate and convergent map relative to a uniform survey route.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Solar Energy Product Based on Cloud Coverage Estimation Using Machine Learning Methods

Cloud cover estimation from images taken by sky-facing cameras can be an important input for analyzing current weather conditions and estimating photovoltaic power generation. The constant change in position, shape, and density of clouds, however, makes the development of a robust computational method for cloud cover estimation challenging. Accurately determining the edge of clouds and hence the separation between clouds and clear sky is difficult and often impossible. Toward determining cloud cover for estimating photovoltaic output, we propose using machine learning methods for cloud segmentation. We compare several methods including a classical regression model, deep learning methods, and boosting methods that combine results from the other machine learning models. To train each of the machine learning models with various sky conditions, we supplemented the existing Singapore whole sky imaging segmentation database with hazy and overcast images collected by a camera-equipped Waggle sensor node. We found that the U-Net architecture, one of the deep neural networks we utilized, segmented cloud pixels most accurately. However, the accuracy of segmenting cloud pixels did not guarantee high accuracy of estimating solar irradiance. We confirmed that the cloud cover ratio is directly related to solar irradiance. Additionally, we confirmed that solar irradiance and solar power output are closely related; hence, by predicting solar irradiance, we can estimate solar power output. This study demonstrates that sky-facing cameras with machine learning methods can be used to estimate solar power output. This ground-based approach provides an inexpensive way to understand solar irradiance and estimate production from photovoltaic solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial Findings from US Department of Energy’s Better Plants Virtual in-Plant Training on 50001 Ready

Manufacturing facilities use about 35% of the domestic energy in the United States every year. Implementing an effective energy management system (EnMS) is one of the most important approaches to improve energy efficiency. However, the implementation of EnMS is low for many countries (including the US) and even for energy-intensive sectors. The reasons for the low implementation rate of energy management systems had been investigated by multiple researchers, but very few studies have focused on the barriers and challenges of implementing ISO 50001-based energy management systems. To contribute to this understudied area, this paper discusses the implementation and outcomes of the first Better Plants 50001 Ready Virtual In-plant Training. This paper first provides an overview of 50001 Ready and the 50001 Ready Navigator Tool. Then, it provides details on this training event and its outcomes. Finally, it discusses findings from the responses to 40 live polling questions about the status of the 25 tasks of the 50001 Ready Navigator for participating companies, key components of the participating manufacturing companies’ energy management systems, and challenges and barriers that these companies are facing. The findings suggest that although many companies understood the importance of an effective energy management system, about half of them do not understand the required resources for building energy management systems, and most of them have only just begun establishing these systems and need more assistance and resources in multiple areas. More specifically, more assistance is necessary for the following: (1) improving corporate management’s understanding of the time and resources needed to build an EnMS as well as the benefits; (2) creating linear regression models for more accurate energy performance tracking; (3) understanding energy use, collecting and analyzing energy performance data; (4) optimizing equipment operational controls, and creating action plans.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Field-Level Perennial Bioenergy Grass Biomass Yields Using the Normalized Difference Red-Edge Index and Linear Regression Analysis for Central Virginia, USA

We investigated the indicative power of the normalized difference red-edge index (NDRE) for estimating field-level perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields utilizing Sentinel-2 imagery and a linear regression model as a rapid, cost-effective method for biomass yield estimations for bioenergy. We used 2019 data from three study sites containing mature perennial bioenergy grass stands in central Virginia, USA. Of the simulated daily NDRE values based on the temporally weighted averaging of two temporal neighbors, we found the strongest index–yield correlation on 11 August (R = 0.85). We estimated the perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields for (1) all sites using the data pooled from the three sites (all-site estimation) and (2) each site using the data pooled from the other two sites (cross-site estimation). The estimated field-level perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields strongly correlated with the recorded yields (average R2 = 0.76), with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.5 Mg/ha and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.2 Mg/ha for the all-site estimation. For the cross-site estimation, the site with diverse perennial grass types had the weakest correlation (R2 = 0.44) of the sites, indicating a difficulty in accounting for heterogeneous index–yield relationships in a single model. In addition to identifying a strong indicative power of the NDRE for estimating the overall perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields at a field level, the findings from this study call for an analysis across multiple perennial grasses and a comparison using multiple sites to understand (1) if the indicative power of the index shifts from the biomass of the specific perennial bioenergy grass type to the overall biomass during the growing season and (2) the level of perennial bioenergy grass heterogeneity that may hinder the remotely sensed biomass yield estimation using a single model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cliff Retreat Rates Associated with a Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA

We present an analysis and interpretation of potential cliff stability at a low-level waste disposal facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, using cliff morphologic and fracture characteristics coupled with carbon-14 surface exposure dating. Our study is important as it directly bears on the licensing criteria for low-level radioactive waste sites. We find that future characteristic cliff failures will likely not breach disposal pits and shafts over the 1000-year minimum regulatory period. Further, we find, using a multivariate regression model, that slope angle and cliff face aspect are sub-equal in importance to predict regions of high risk of failure when combined with surface exposure ages and assuming that old exposure ages are most indicative of stability (instability) and therefore can aid decision making in final design implementation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Urban Green Spaces, Greenness Exposure and Species Richness in Residential Environments and Relations with Physical Activity and BMI in Portuguese Adolescents

Environmental factors play an important role in obesity-related behaviors. Evidence indicates significant associations between weight and urban green spaces in adults, but it is not clear whether this relationship applies to adolescents. Therefore, our aim was to determine the associations between urban green spaces, greenness exposure and species richness in residential environments with physical activity and body mass index. Sixty-two adolescents between 12 and 18 years of age answered a self-administered questionnaire, providing information on height, weight, age, sex and home address. Data on socioeconomic deprivation were obtained from the European Index of Deprivation for Small Portuguese Areas. Physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometers. Urban green space counts and the normalized difference vegetation index values were measured using buffers along the roads with distances of 300, 500, 1000 and 1500 m from each participant’s residence. To quantify the species richness, the species richness index was used. Linear regression models were fitted to analyze whether urban green spaces, exposure to green spaces and species richness counts for each distance were associated with physical activity and self-reported body mass index. We did not find significant associations between the independent variables and the probability of overweight or obesity. The relationship between environmental variables, adolescents’ physical activity and body weight seems to be complex and further studies may contribute to better understanding of the topic.

Melo, Juliana (ORCID:0000000301275340)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the Drivers of Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Florida, USA Using a Machine Learning Approach

As of March 2021, the State of Florida, U.S.A. had accounted for approximately 6.67% of total COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease) cases in the U.S. The main objective of this research is to analyze mobility patterns during a three month period in summer 2020, when COVID-19 case numbers were very high for three Florida counties, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. To investigate patterns, as well as drivers, related to changes in mobility across the tri-county region, a random forest regression model was built using sociodemographic, travel, and built environment factors, as well as COVID-19 positive case data. Mobility patterns declined in each county when new COVID-19 infections began to rise, beginning in mid-June 2020. While the mean number of bar and restaurant visits was lower overall due to closures, analysis showed that these visits remained a top factor that impacted mobility for all three counties, even with a rise in cases. Our modeling results suggest that there were mobility pattern differences between counties with respect to factors relating, for example, to race and ethnicity (different population groups factored differently in each county), as well as social distancing or travel-related factors (e.g., staying at home behaviors) over the two time periods prior to and after the spike of COVID-19 cases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vehicle Localization in 3D World Coordinates Using Single Camera at Traffic Intersection

Optimizing traffic control systems at traffic intersections can reduce the network-wide fuel consumption, as well as emissions of conventional fuel-powered vehicles. While traffic signals have been controlled based on predetermined schedules, various adaptive signal control systems have recently been developed using advanced sensors such as cameras, radars, and LiDARs. Among these sensors, cameras can provide a cost-effective way to determine the number, location, type, and speed of the vehicles for better-informed decision-making at traffic intersections. In this research, a new approach for accurately determining vehicle locations near traffic intersections using a single camera is presented. For that purpose, a well-known object detection algorithm called YOLO is used to determine vehicle locations in video images captured by a traffic camera. YOLO draws a bounding box around each detected vehicle, and the vehicle location in the image coordinates is converted to the world coordinates using camera calibration data. During this process, a significant error between the center of a vehicle’s bounding box and the real center of the vehicle in the world coordinates is generated due to the angled view of the vehicles by a camera installed on a traffic light pole. As a means of mitigating this vehicle localization error, two different types of regression models are trained and applied to the centers of the bounding boxes of the camera-detected vehicles. The accuracy of the proposed approach is validated using both static camera images and live-streamed traffic video. Based on the improved vehicle localization, it is expected that more accurate traffic signal control can be made to improve the overall network-wide energy efficiency and traffic flow at traffic intersections.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Epidemiologic Factors Supporting Triage of Infected Dog Patients Admitted to a Veterinary Hospital Biological Isolation and Containment Unit

The teaching hospital of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Lisbon hosts a Biological Isolation and Containment Unit (BICU) for the hospitalization of both confirmed and suspected animals of an infectious disease. This study targets the BICU dog population to identify and characterize the most frequent infectious diseases recorded in a 7-year period. Several epidemiologic factors were analyzed for their significance to triage infected cases. During the study period, 534 dogs were admitted, of which 263 (49.3%) had a confirmed infectious disease diagnosis: parvovirosis (49.4%; n = 130); leptospirosis (21.7%; n = 57); multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacterial infection; (10.6%; n = 28), and canine distemper (9.9%; n = 26). Several potential risk factors for these diseases were identified: age under 2 years old (p < 0.001), incomplete vaccination for parvovirosis (p < 0.001), age ≥ 10 years old (p < 0.001), and the presence of concomitant disorders for MDR-infected cases (p = 0.03). Logistic regression models were constructed to classify cases and controls. The sensitivity and specificity estimates were very high (>0.83) for parvovirosis, MDR, and distemper infections. A lower sensitivity (0.77) was obtained for identifying cases with leptospirosis. In conclusion, infectious diseases are frequent, hence, it is essential to decrease their occurrence through effective preventive measures such as vaccination. The constructed logistic models can also help in triaging admitted dogs with a potential infectious disease.

Machado, Inês Cunha (ORCID:0000000238151125)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Do Piperonyl Butoxide Long-Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets Provide Additional Protection Against Malaria Infections Compared with Conventional Nets in an Operational Setting in Western Kenya?

Malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa has stagnated despite widespread adoption of control measures such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Progress has stalled, in part, because of pyrethroid insecticide resistance, driving the need for retooling to increase the effectiveness of bed nets. Consequently, LLINs have been treated with the chemical synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). Piperonyl butoxide LLINs have been shown to be efficacious in controlled settings; however, their effectiveness in real-world settings warrants investigation. In Bungoma County, Western Kenya, a cohort of 768 participants was followed from June 2017 to December 2023 via active and passive surveillance. Household visits were conducted monthly, during which LLIN use for nets distributed in 2017 and 2021 was recorded, and symptomatic malaria cases were identified using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). The comparative effectiveness of PBO versus conventional LLINs was assessed in terms of malaria infections. A multilevel logistic regression model was fit with monthly RDT results as the dependent variable. The study results indicate that PBO LLINs provide greater protection against malaria at the individual level than conventional LLINs (odds ratio: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.47–1.03), although the findings were not statistically significant. The added protection against malaria infections provided by PBO LLINs compared with conventional LLINs observed in the current study aligns with findings from most previous studies, although this finding was not statistically significant. In areas with documented pyrethroid resistance, the use of LLINs with an added synergist, such as PBO, can provide additional protection against malaria infections (compared with pyrethroid-only LLINs) and should be considered for scaled-up scenarios despite the additional cost.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using machine learning to derive cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations from commonly available measurements

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations are an important aspect of aerosol–cloud interactions and the subsequent climate effects; however, their measurements are very limited. We use a machine learning tool, random decision forests, to develop a random forest regression model (RFRM) to derive CCN at 0.4 % supersaturation ([CCN0.4]) from commonly available measurements. The RFRM is trained on the long-term simulations in a global size-resolved particle microphysics model. Using atmospheric state and composition variables as predictors, through associations of their variabilities, the RFRM is able to learn the underlying dependence of [CCN0.4] on these predictors, which are as follows: eight fractions of PM 2.5 (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (POC), dust, and salt), seven gaseous species (NO x , NH 3 , O 3 , SO 2 , OH, isoprene, and monoterpene), and four meteorological variables (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and solar radiation). The RFRM is highly robust: it has a median mean fractional bias (MFB) of 4.4 % with ≈96.33 % of the derived [CCN0.4] within a good agreement range of -60% 2.5 speciation (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3 , and organic carbon (OC)), NO x , O 3 , SO 2 , T, and RH, as well as [CCN0.4] are available. We modify, optimize, and retrain the developed RFRM to make predictions from 19 to 9 of these available predictors. This retrained RFRM (RFRM-ShortVars) shows a reduction in performance due to the unavailability and sparsity of measurements (predictors); it captures the [CCN0.4] variability and magnitude at SGP with ≈67.02 % of the derived values in the good agreement range. This work shows the potential of using the more commonly available measurements of PM 2.5 speciation to alleviate the sparsity of CCN number concentrations' measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗