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Climate and air pollution implications of potential energy infrastructure and policy measures in India

India is a rapidly developing economy with interrelated air quality, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation goals. There are unique challenges to achieving each of these goals as well as potential tradeoffs among them. This study examines the implications of possible future energy, climate, and air pollution control policies and measures in India through 2050. We take a scenario approach using the GCAM global energy-climate-land model combined with the Hector simple climate model and the TM5-FASST air quality source-receptor model to examine energy, climate and air quality outcomes. Reducing use of traditional biomass in buildings can reduce primary carbonaceous particulate emissions well below 2015 levels. However, policies that are more ambitious than current plans would likely be required to reduce SO 2 and NO x emissions well below 2015 levels. Among single policy cases considered, pricing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and expansion of natural gas infrastructure have the largest impacts on overall energy system changes relative to the reference scenario. Ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies lead to the largest reductions in air pollution concentrations and radiative forcing, respectively. However, ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies differ in the extent to which they support or impede other policy objectives. Forcing increases due to reduced aerosols from ambitious air pollution policies can be mitigated, at least in part, by applying air pollution control and GHG policies together.

India↗

Expected Performance of the ATLAS Experiment - Detector, Trigger and Physics

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN promises a major step forward in the understanding of the fundamental nature of matter. The ATLAS experiment is a general-purpose detector for the LHC, whose design was guided by the need to accommodate the wide spectrum of possible physics signatures. The major remit of the ATLAS experiment is the exploration of the TeV mass scale where groundbreaking discoveries are expected. In the focus are the investigation of the electroweak symmetry breaking and linked to this the search for the Higgs boson as well as the search for Physics beyond the Standard Model. In this report a detailed examination of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector is provided, with a major aim being to investigate the experimental sensitivity to a wide range of measurements and potential observations of new physical processes. An earlier summary of the expected capabilities of ATLAS was compiled in 1999 [1]. A survey of physics capabilities of the CMS detector was published in [2]. The design of the ATLAS detector has now been finalised, and its construction and installation have been completed [3]. An extensive test-beam programme was undertaken. Furthermore, the simulation and reconstruction software code and frameworks have been completely rewritten. Revisions incorporated reflect improved detector modelling as well as major technical changes to the software technology. Greatly improved understanding of calibration and alignment techniques, and their practical impact on performance, is now in place. The studies reported here are based on full simulations of the ATLAS detector response. A variety of event generators were employed. The simulation and reconstruction of these large event samples thus provided an important operational test of the new ATLAS software system. In addition, the processing was distributed world-wide over the ATLAS Grid facilities and hence provided an important test of the ATLAS computing system - this is the origin of the expression 'CSC studies' ('computing system commissioning'), which is occasionally referred to in these volumes. The work reported does generally assume that the detector is fully operational, and in this sense represents an idealised detector: establishing the best performance of the ATLAS detector with LHC proton-proton collisions is a challenging task for the future. The results summarised here therefore represent the best estimate of ATLAS capabilities before real operational experience of the full detector with beam. Unless otherwise stated, simulations also do not include the effect of additional interactions in the same or other bunch-crossings, and the effect of neutron background is neglected. Thus simulations correspond to the low-luminosity performance of the ATLAS detector. This report is broadly divided into two parts: firstly the performance for identification of physics objects is examined in detail, followed by a detailed assessment of the performance of the trigger system. This part is subdivided into chapters surveying the capabilities for charged particle tracking, each of electron/photon, muon and tau identification, jet and missing transverse energy reconstruction, b-tagging algorithms and performance, and finally the trigger system performance. In each chapter of the report, there is a further subdivision into shorter notes describing different aspects studied. The second major subdivision of the report addresses physics measurement capabilities, and new physics search sensitivities. Individual chapters in this part discuss ATLAS physics capabilities in Standard Model QCD and electroweak processes, in the top quark sector, in b-physics, in searches for Higgs bosons, supersymmetry searches, and finally searches for other new particles predicted in more exotic models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dipole Moment Calculations Using Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory and Hybrid Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory

The dipole moment is the molecular property that most directly indicates molecular polarity. The accuracy of computed dipole moments depends strongly on the quality of the calculated electron density, and the breakdown of single-reference methods for strongly correlated systems can lead to poor predictions of the dipole moments in those cases. Here, we derive the analytical expression for obtaining the electric dipole moment by multiconfiguration pair density functional theory (MCPDFT), and we assess the accuracy of MC-PDFT for predicting dipole moments at equilibrium and nonequilibrium geometries. We show that MC-PDFT dipole moment curves have reasonable behavior even for stretched geometries, and they significantly improve upon the CASSCF results by capturing more electron correlation. Herein, the analysis of a dataset consisting of 18 first-row transition metal diatomics and 6 main-group polyatomic molecules with multireference character suggests that MC-PDFT and its hybrid extension (HMC-PDFT) perform comparably to CASPT2 and MRCISD+Q methods and have a mean unsigned deviation of 0.2–0.3 D with respect to the best available dipole moment reference values. We explored the dependence of the predicted dipole moments upon the choice of the on-top density functional and active space, and we recommend the tPBE and hybrid tPBE0 on-top choices for the functionals combined with the moderate correlated participating orbital scheme for selecting the active space. With these choices, the mean unsigned deviations (in debyes) of the calculated equilibrium dipole moments from the best estimates are 0.77 for CASSCF, 0.29 for MC-PDFT, 0.24 for HMCPDFT, 0.28 for CASPT2, and 0.25 for MRCISD+Q. These results are encouraging because the computational cost of MC-PDFT or HMC-PDFT is largely reduced compared to the CASPT2 and MRCISD+Q methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Molten Salt Power Tower Cost Model for the System Advisor Model (SAM)

This report describes a component-based cost model developed for molten-salt power tower solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), using data from several prior studies, including a contracted analysis from WorleyParsons Group, which is included herein as an Appendix. The WorleyParsons' analysis also estimated material composition and mass for the plant to facilitate a life cycle analysis of the molten salt power tower technology. Details of the life cycle assessment have been published elsewhere. The cost model provides a reference plant that interfaces with NREL's System Advisor Model or SAM. The reference plant assumes a nominal 100-MWe (net) power tower running with a nitrate salt heat transfer fluid (HTF). Thermal energy storage is provided by direct storage of the HTF in a two-tank system. The design assumes dry-cooling. The model includes a spreadsheet that interfaces with SAM via the Excel Exchange option in SAM. The spreadsheet allows users to estimate the costs of different-size plants and to take into account changes in commodity prices. This report and the accompanying Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded at https://sam.nrel.gov/cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reference Design Cases for Floating Offshore Wind Arrays

Given the immature nature of the Floating Offshore Wind (FLOW) industry, there is a need for reference FLOW farm designs to allow researchers and technology developers to study the behavior of floating wind turbine systems, without having to design every part of those systems or without having to get access to a wide range of information that is often confidential. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 49 is facilitating research collaboration on the integrated design of Floating Offshore Wind Arrays (FOWA), and will develop several reference FOWAs to facilitate R&D activities of the floating wind community and efficient scale change of the floating wind industry (from pilot farms to commercial ones). This paper will outline the key design considerations the task has identified for the sustainable deployment of large-scale FOWAs. The aim is to prepare a comprehensive overview of the different elements that impact the design of FOWA to support the development of best practices for FOWA design. The paper will also present three baseline reference design cases that are being prepared for shallow, intermediate and deep water sites. The final designs will be made open access including the engineering and cost inputs to accelerate further innovation, research and the deployment of FOWAs.

array layout↗

SU-E-T-03: 3D GPU-Accelerated Secondary Checks of Radiation Therapy Treatment Plans

Purpose: Redundant treatment verifications in conformal and intensity-modulated radiation therapy techniques are traditionally performed with single point calculations. New solutions can replace these checks with 3D treatment plan verifications. This work describes a software tool (Mobius3D, Mobius Medical Systems) that uses a GPU-accelerated collapsed cone algorithm to perform 3D independent verifications of TPS calculations. Methods: Mobius3D comes with reference beam models for common linear accelerators. The system uses an independently developed collapsed cone algorithm updated with recent enhancements. 144 isotropically-spaced cones are used for each voxel for calculations. These complex calculations can be sped up by using GPUs. Mobius3D calculate dose using DICOM information coming from TPS (CT, RT Struct, RT Plan RT Dose). DVH-metrics and 3D gamma tests can be used to compare both TPS and secondary calculations. 170 patients treated with all common techniques as 3DCFRT (including wedged), static and dynamic IMRT and VMAT have been successfully verified with this solution. Results: Calculation times are between 3–5 minutes for 3DCFRT treatments and 15–20 for most complex dMLC and VMAT plans. For all PTVs mean dose and 90% coverage differences are (1.12±0.97)% and (0.68±1.19)%, respectively. Mean dose discrepancies for all OARs is (0.64±1.00)%. 3D gamma (global, 3%/3 mm) analysis shows a mean passing rate of (97.8 ± 3.0)% for PTVs and (99.0±3.0)% for OARs. 3D gamma pasing rate for all voxels in CT has a mean value of (98.5±1.6)%. Conclusion: Mobius3D is a powerful tool to verify all modalities of radiation therapy treatments. Dose discrepancies calculated by this system are in good agreement with TPS. The use of reference beam data results in time savings and can be used to avoid the propagation of errors in original beam data into our QA system. GPU calculations permit enhanced collapsed cone calculations with reasonable calculation times.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

MO-FG-202-07: Real-Time EPID-Based Detection Metric For VMAT Delivery Errors

Purpose: To create and test an accurate EPID-frame-based VMAT QA metric to detect gross dose errors in real-time and to provide information about the source of error. Methods: A Swiss cheese model was created for an EPID-based real-time QA process. The system compares a treatmentplan- based reference set of EPID images with images acquired over each 2° gantry angle interval. The metric utilizes a sequence of independent consecutively executed error detection Methods: a masking technique that verifies infield radiation delivery and ensures no out-of-field radiation; output normalization checks at two different stages; global image alignment to quantify rotation, scaling and translation; standard gamma evaluation (3%, 3 mm) and pixel intensity deviation checks including and excluding high dose gradient regions. Tolerances for each test were determined. For algorithm testing, twelve different types of errors were selected to modify the original plan. Corresponding predictions for each test case were generated, which included measurement-based noise. Each test case was run multiple times (with different noise per run) to assess the ability to detect introduced errors. Results: Averaged over five test runs, 99.1% of all plan variations that resulted in patient dose errors were detected within 2° and 100% within 4° (∼1% of patient dose delivery). Including cases that led to slightly modified but clinically equivalent plans, 91.5% were detected by the system within 2°. Based on the type of method that detected the error, determination of error sources was achieved. Conclusion: An EPID-based during-treatment error detection system for VMAT deliveries was successfully designed and tested. The system utilizes a sequence of methods to identify and prevent gross treatment delivery errors. The system was inspected for robustness with realistic noise variations, demonstrating that it has the potential to detect a large majority of errors in real-time and indicate the error source. J. V. Siebers receives funding support from Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Real-Time Federated Cyber-Transmission-Distribution Testbed Architecture for the Resiliency Analysis

With the ongoing automation driven by the push toward the smart electric grid and the advancement in associated cyber infrastructure, the interaction between physical [electric transmission and distribution (T&D) systems], cyber (communication, automation, and control), and human (grid operators and decision-makers) is increasingly becoming more complex. This creates the requirement of analyzing the effect of the transmission system on the distribution system and vice versa with consideration of the additional complexity of the cyber infrastructure. Such an integrated testbed will also help with resiliency analysis, where resiliency refers to the ability of the system to continue serving energy to the critical loads even with limited extreme contingencies. Interaction of the physical power grid with the cyber layer can be effectively modeled using real-time (RT) simulator for developing and validating various operational and control algorithms. Testbeds using RT simulators with multiple capabilities have been developed at different institutions. Still, no single existing testbed can offer full scalability while simultaneously meeting high fidelity requirements for resiliency experimentation. Co-simulating federated testbed assets can provide a scalable experimentation platform that can be leveraged for verification and validation. In this article, an architecture is developed for federated cyber-physical testbed. A local federation with two real-time simulators is developed: real-time digital simulator (RTDS) and OPAL-RT have been interfaced using VILLAS framework for end-to-end testing. Also, a real-time linear predictor is developed and integrated here to address the communication latency impact on geographically allocated federated RT simulation. Finally, resiliency analysis tools are formulated and utilized for T&D systems. Finally as an illustrative use case, the resiliency of a T&D test system is simulated, and the results are analyzed. A 179-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) transmission system is developed using OPAL-RT/ HYPERSIM, and a modified IEEE 13 node feeder system is modeled in RTDS/RSCAD and interfaced for resiliency analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Final Technical Report on Quantifying Dependability Attributes of Software Based Safety Critical Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

With the current transition from analog to digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants, the number and variety of software-based systems have significantly increased. The sophisticated nature and increasing complexity of software raises trust in these systems as a significant challenge. The trust placed in a software system is typically termed software dependability. Software dependability analysis faces uncommon challenges since software systems’ characteristics differ from those of hardware systems. The lack of systematic science-based methods for quantifying the dependability attributes in software-based instrumentation as well as control systems in safety critical applications has proved itself to be a significant inhibitor to the expanded use of modern digital technology in the nuclear industry. Dependability refers to the ability of a system to deliver a service that can be trusted. Dependability is commonly considered as a general concept that encompasses different attributes, e.g., reliability, safety, security, availability and maintainability. Dependability research has progressed significantly over the last few decades. For example, various assessment models and/or design approaches have been proposed for software reliability, software availability and software maintainability. Advances have also been made to integrate multiple dependability attributes, e.g., integrating security with other dependability attributes, measuring availability and maintainability, modeling reliability and availability, quantifying reliability and security, exploring the dependencies between security and safety and developing integrated analysis models. However, there is still a lack of understanding of the dependencies between various dependability attributes as a whole and of how such dependencies are formed. To address the need for quantification and give a more objective basis to the review process -- therefore reducing regulatory uncertainty -- measures and methods are needed to assess dependability attributes early on, as well as throughout the life-cycle process of software development. In this research, extensive expert opinion elicitation is used to identify the measures and methods for assessing software dependability. Semi-structured questionnaires were designed to elicit expert knowledge. A new notation system, Causal Mechanism Graphing, was developed to extract and represent such knowledge. The Causal Mechanism Graphs were merged, thus, obtaining the consensus knowledge shared by the domain experts. In this report, we focus on how software contributes to dependability. However, software dependability is not discussed separately from the context of systems or socio-technical systems. Specifically, this report focuses on software dependability, reliability, safety, security, availability, and maintainability. Our research was conducted in the sequence of stages found below. Each stage is further examined in its corresponding chapter. Stage 1 (Chapter 2): Elicitation of causal maps describing the dependencies between dependability attributes. These causal maps were constructed using expert opinion elicitation. This chapter describes the expert opinion elicitation process, the questionnaire design, the causal map construction method and the causal maps obtained. Stage 2 (Chapter 3): Elicitation of the causal map describing the occurrence of the event of interest for each dependability attribute. The causal mechanisms for the “event of interest” were extracted for each of the software dependability attributes. The “event of interest” for a dependability attribute is generally considered to be the “attribute failure”, e.g. security failure. The extraction was based on the analysis of expert elicitation results obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 (Chapter 4): Identification of relevant measurements. Measures for the “events of interest” and their causal mechanisms were obtained from expert opinion elicitation for each of the software dependability attributes. The measures extracted are presented in this chapter. Stage 4 (Chapter 5): Assessment of the coverage of the causal maps via measures. Coverage was assessed to determine whether the measures obtained were sufficient to quantify software dependability, and what measures are further required. Stage 5 (Chapter 6): Identification of “missing” measures and measurement approaches for concepts not covered. New measures, for concepts that had not been covered sufficiently as determined in Stage 4, were identified using supplementary expert opinion elicitation as well as literature reviews. Stage 6 (Chapter 7): Building of a detailed quantification model based on the causal maps and measurements obtained. Ability to derive such a quantification model shows that the causal models and measurements derived from the previous stages (Stage 1 to Stage 5) can form the technical basis for developing dependability quantification models. Scope restrictions have led us to prioritize this demonstration effort. The demonstration was focused on a critical system, i.e. the reactor protection system. For this system, a ranking of the software dependability attributes by nuclear stakeholders was developed. As expected for this application, the stakeholder ranking identified safety as the most critical attribute to be quantified. A safety quantification model limited to the requirements phase of development was built. Two case studies were conducted for verification. A preliminary control gate for software safety for the requirements stage was proposed and applied to the first case study. The control gate allows a cost effective selection of the duration of the requirements phase.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SU-E-J-243: Possibility of Exposure Dose Reduction of Cone-Beam Computed Tomography in An Image Guided Patient Positioning System by Using Various Noise Suppression Filters

Purpose: To investigate the possibility of exposure dose reduction of the cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) in an image guided patient positioning system by using 6 noise suppression filters. Methods: First, a reference dose (RD) and low-dose (LD)-CBCT (X-ray volume imaging system, Elekta Co.) images were acquired with a reference dose of 86.2 mGy (weighted CT dose index: CTDIw) and various low doses of 1.4 to 43.1 mGy, respectively. Second, an automated rigid registration for three axes was performed for estimating setup errors between a planning CT image and the LD-CBCT images, which were processed by 6 noise suppression filters, i.e., averaging filter (AF), median filter (MF), Gaussian filter (GF), bilateral filter (BF), edge preserving smoothing filter (EPF) and adaptive partial median filter (AMF). Third, residual errors representing the patient positioning accuracy were calculated as an Euclidean distance between the setup error vectors estimated using the LD-CBCT image and RD-CBCT image. Finally, the relationships between the residual error and CTDIw were obtained for 6 noise suppression filters, and then the CTDIw for LD-CBCT images processed by the noise suppression filters were measured at the same residual error, which was obtained with the RD-CBCT. This approach was applied to an anthropomorphic pelvic phantom and two cancer patients. Results: For the phantom, the exposure dose could be reduced from 61% (GF) to 78% (AMF) by applying the noise suppression filters to the CBCT images. The exposure dose in a prostate cancer case could be reduced from 8% (AF) to 61% (AMF), and the exposure dose in a lung cancer case could be reduced from 9% (AF) to 37% (AMF). Conclusion: Using noise suppression filters, particularly an adaptive partial median filter, could be feasible to decrease the additional exposure dose to patients in image guided patient positioning systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Ureter tracking and segmentation in CT urography (CTU) using COMPASS

Purpose: The authors are developing a computerized system for automated segmentation of ureters in CTU, referred to as combined model-guided path-finding analysis and segmentation system (COMPASS). Ureter segmentation is a critical component for computer-aided diagnosis of ureter cancer. Methods: COMPASS consists of three stages: (1) rule-based adaptive thresholding and region growing, (2) path-finding and propagation, and (3) edge profile extraction and feature analysis. With institutional review board approval, 79 CTU scans performed with intravenous (IV) contrast material enhancement were collected retrospectively from 79 patient files. One hundred twenty-four ureters were selected from the 79 CTU volumes. On average, the ureters spanned 283 computed tomography slices (range: 116–399, median: 301). More than half of the ureters contained malignant or benign lesions and some had ureter wall thickening due to malignancy. A starting point for each of the 124 ureters was identified manually to initialize the tracking by COMPASS. In addition, the centerline of each ureter was manually marked and used as reference standard for evaluation of tracking performance. The performance of COMPASS was quantitatively assessed by estimating the percentage of the length that was successfully tracked and segmented for each ureter and by estimating the average distance and the average maximum distance between the computer and the manually tracked centerlines. Results: Of the 124 ureters, 120 (97%) were segmented completely (100%), 121 (98%) were segmented through at least 70%, and 123 (99%) were segmented through at least 50% of its length. In comparison, using our previous method, 85 (69%) ureters were segmented completely (100%), 100 (81%) were segmented through at least 70%, and 107 (86%) were segmented at least 50% of its length. With COMPASS, the average distance between the computer and the manually generated centerlines is 0.54 mm, and the average maximum distance is 2.02 mm. With our previous method, the average distance between the centerlines was 0.80 mm, and the average maximum distance was 3.38 mm. The improvements in the ureteral tracking length and both distance measures were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: COMPASS improved significantly the ureter tracking, including regions across ureter lesions, wall thickening, and the narrowing of the lumen.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Regulatory and Licensing Strategy for Microreactor Technology

With electricity demand on the rise, an increase in the use of nuclear energy is needed in order to meet future energy demands. The use of nuclear energy will not only begin to positively address this demand, but will also mitigate the negative impacts of carbon-induced climate change and provide energy security to the United States. An appropriate option to address the increasing energy demand is the use of advanced reactor systems like microreactors. Microreactors, often referred to as special-purpose reactors or vSMRs, are neutronically simple, factory manufacturable, easily transportable, and designed to produce less than 20 MWt (for classification as Hazard Category 2 per 10 CFR 830, DOE STD 1027). These reactors are decentralized energy sources that have the ability to provide sustainable and affordable power to remote communities and to industrial users, while having self-contained geometry that requires very low maintenance care. In order for microreactors to be approved for operation, they must abide by and successfully complete a rigorous regulatory and licensing process monitored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Department of Energy (DOE), or the Department of Defense (DoD). Because microreactors are a relatively new and disruptive technology, there is no clear licensing path for them to follow. Current licensing frameworks are tailored specifically to large, traditional light water reactors (LWRs) that have been developed and understood by the nuclear industry for many years. Unlike LWRs, microreactors have major design differences, specifically in the materials, coolant, reflectors and potential technology applications used. They also have higher in-core operating temperatures, which have the potential to push the materials used past their allowable limits. Because they are much smaller, safety margins, the amount of space required for assembly, and the distances required to meet dose-based regulatory criteria can technically be altered to better fit their new size. The following strategies and recommendations are intended to assure that key licensing issues do not influence the path to microreactor development, demonstration, and commercialization: Nuclear Regulatory Commission • The NRC should address the lack of knowledge and support of risk informed decision-making concepts from staff members and continue to advance and communicate risk initiatives using their Risk Informed Steering Committee • More research should be done into whether or not microreactors, which are small Class 103 facilities, can be licensed using Class 104-type guidance (e.g., NUREG 1537) • The NRC should use frequency-consequence curves to incrementally reduce regulatory uncertainty and risk to facilitate future construction and operation of advanced reactor designs Department of Energy • The DOE should continue to implement their multi-step Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table process in order to help detect and recommend the major design and technology work needed for licensing future reactor systems • The DOE should consider a joint licensing approach with the NRC where microreactors first go through the DOE process, then finish with the NRC process, providing an advantage for both applicants and NRC staff Department of Defense • The DoD should invest in personnel with sufficient expertise, incorporate their military reactors into tactical power systems, and self-regulate using Section 91b of the Atomic Energy Act Transportation • Licensees should convert enriched uranium hexafluoride into metal or oxide at an enrichment facility and then transport them to a fabrication facility • To avoid transportation issues altogether, licensees should consider positioning the enrichment and fabrication facilities on the same site • The DOE should provide their support in developing new shipping packages for safe transport, criticality benchmark data needed to license high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel facilities and transport packages, and provide financial and technical help to the Department of Transportation; and, • The NRC should help transportation efforts by finalizing and developing guidance for implementing 10 CFR 73 and 10 CFR 74 specifically for Category 2 Special Nuclear Material.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Global scale environmental control of plant photosynthetic capacity

Photosynthetic capacity, determined by light harvesting and carboxylation reactions, is a key plant trait that determines the rate of photosynthesis; however, in Earth System Models (ESMs) at a reference temperature, it is either a fixed value for a given plant functional type or derived from a linear function of leaf nitrogen content. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis that considered correlations of environmental factors with photosynthetic capacity as determined by maximum carboxylation (V c,m ) rate scaled to 25°C (i.e., V c,25; μmol CO 2 ·m –2 ·s –1 ) and maximum electron transport rate (Jmax) scaled to 25°C (i.e., J 25 ; μmol electron·m –2 ·s –1 ) at the global scale. Our results showed that the percentage of variation in observed Vc,25 and J25 explained jointly by the environmental factors (i.e., day length, radiation, temperature, and humidity) were 2–2.5 times and 6–9 times of that explained by area-based leaf nitrogen content, respectively. Environmental factors influenced photosynthetic capacity mainly through photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency, rather than through leaf nitrogen content. The combination of leaf nitrogen content and environmental factors was able to explain ~56% and ~66% of the variation in V c,25 and J 25 at the global scale, respectively. As a result, our analyses suggest that model projections of plant photosynthetic capacity and hence land–atmosphere exchange under changing climatic conditions could be substantially improved if environmental factors are incorporated into algorithms used to parameterize photosynthetic capacity in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supervised learning and the finite-temperature string method for computing committor functions and reaction rates

A central object in the computational studies of rare events is the committor function. Though costly to compute, the committor function encodes complete mechanistic information of the processes involving rare events, including reaction rates and transition-state ensembles. Under the framework of transition path theory, Rotskoff et al. [Proceedings of the 2nd Mathematical and Scientific Machine Learning Conference, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (PLMR, 2022), Vol. 145, pp. 757–780] proposes an algorithm where a feedback loop couples a neural network that models the committor function with importance sampling, mainly umbrella sampling, which collects data needed for adaptive training. Here, in this work, we show additional modifications are needed to improve the accuracy of the algorithm. The first modification adds elements of supervised learning, which allows the neural network to improve its prediction by fitting to sample-mean estimates of committor values obtained from short molecular dynamics trajectories. The second modification replaces the committor-based umbrella sampling with the finite-temperature string (FTS) method, which enables homogeneous sampling in regions where transition pathways are located. We test our modifications on low-dimensional systems with non-convex potential energy where reference solutions can be found via analytical or finite element methods, and show how combining supervised learning and the FTS method yields accurate computation of committor functions and reaction rates. We also provide an error analysis for algorithms that use the FTS method, using which reaction rates can be accurately estimated during training with a small number of samples. The methods are then applied to a molecular system in which no reference solution is known, where accurate computations of committor functions and reaction rates can still be obtained.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Volatile Memory Extraction- Based Approach for Level 0-1 CPS Forensics

Most security analyzers operate on system state that is far removed from end-point components in cyber-physical systems (CPS) identified as level 0-1 in the Purdue Architecture Reference Architecture (PERA) [1]. For example, many operate on system logs and other data dumps to disks. Tremendous value that can be gained in cyber security forensics if low level details such as dynamic changes to volatile memory can be extracted and provided to more sophisticated analysis tools. However, obtaining detailed and dynamic system state at the level of volatile memory is extremely challenging [2]. Here, we attempt to apply IT memory forensic mechanisms to CPS end-point devices and statistically evaluate them. Our focus is to extract volatile and dynamically changing internal information form CPS 0-1 level devices, and design preliminary schemes to exploit that extracted information. This new capability of generating a sequence of volatile memory snapshots for offline, detailed and sophisticated analysis opens a new class of cyber security schemes for CPS forensic analysis. As a case study for our ongoing research, we apply the proposed methodology to Modicon PLC using Modbus protocol. We extract the memory layout and subject the device to read operations at the most critical regions of memory. Similarly, write operations are initiated to carefully determine memory locations (for example, bytes that hold the firmware version number). This capability of generating a sequence of volatile memory snapshots for offline, detailed and sophisticated analysis opens a new class of cyber security schemes for CPS forensic analysis. Also, the ability to dynamically make controlled modifications to specific memory locations opens the potential for new mechanisms such as taint analysis and watermarking.

Asmar Awad, Rima↗

Reservoir Computing as a Tool for Climate Predictability Studies

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate models. In this context, the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that reservoir computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the preindustrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community Earth System Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC-based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data are plentiful and when such data are more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions—larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc.—suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator—the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory—is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measure Guideline: Basement Insulation Basics

This guideline is intended to describe good practices for insulating basements in new and existing homes, and is intended to be a practical resources for building contractors, designers, and also to homeowners. These flowcharts are provided as a very high-level overview of the planning and selection process for basement insulation systems. Note that these guidelines—and certainly these charts—are not exhaustive. Many references are provided that discuss several viable basement systems as well as achieving thermal performance well above code minimums.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗