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At least 613 records · Page 34

A data analytical approach for assessing the efficacy of Operational Technology active defenses against insider threats

In recent years, the need for Operational Technology (OT) defenses has been recognized, serving as an additional line of defense when Information Technology (IT) defenses are bypassed. This is no longer considered an uncommon possibility when dealing with advanced persistent threat (APT) actors expected to be state-sponsored and receiving insider assistance. In these extreme adversarial situations, OT defenses aim to provide another layer of defense for the system, introduced directly at the physical process level, as described by the sensors data, the system model, and control actions. Just like IT defenses, two schools of thought, i.e., passive and active defenses, have emerged to address this challenge. In active defenses, representing the focus of this paper, known signatures, synthesized based on the system's unique characteristics, are inserted into the system. In contradistinction, passive methods rely solely on observing system behavior in search of patterns of normal behavior with deviations thereof representing abnormal behavior. In their most sophisticated implementations, both passive and active defenses rely on the use of data analytics to identify the patterns and synthesize the observed and/or inserted signatures. Past research has shown that passive defenses may be bypassed by APT actors relying on data analytics and their intimate knowledge of the system to evade detection by respecting the patterns identified by the defenders. Here this manuscript explores the use of active defenses under the assumption that the attacker has privileged access to the system, including access to the system's model and sensors data. Specifically, this manuscript assesses the ability of active defenses to remain invisible to the attackers, and discusses the associated challenges that must be addressed to ensure their resiliency against APT actors.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Reduced-Order Parameterized Short-Circuit Current Model of Inverter-Interfaced Distributed Generators

The short-circuit response of inverter-interfaced distributed generators (IIDGs) is not adequately represented in many conventional protection studies. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of IIDG behavior during grid faults and proposes a more accurate reduced-order parameterized short-circuit current (RPSC) model of inverters. Typical inverter components are thoroughly investigated to identify those that play dominant roles during faults. The paper shows that the current limiter is the dominant factor for the steady-state fault-current of inverter; while the inverter filter along with the severity of the voltage disturbance largely determine the initial transient spike of inverter fault current. The proposed model is low-order and can be used in large scale simulations. The parameters of the proposed RPSC model can be extracted from laboratory experiments without requiring proprietary manufacturer information. The proposed fault-current model is analogous to the well-known synchronous machine model that segregates the inverter fault current into subtransient, transient, and steady-state fault currents. Finally, experimental and simulation tests are presented to validate the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exploring ship track spreading rates with a physics-informed Langevin particle parameterization

Abstract. The rate at which aerosols spread from a point source injection, such as from a ship or other stationary pollution source, is critical for accurately representing subgrid plume spreading in a climate model. Such climate model results will guide future decisions regarding the feasibility and application of large-scale intentional marine cloud brightening (MCB). Prior modeling studies have shown that the rate at which ship plumes spread may be strongly dependent on meteorological conditions, such as precipitating versus non-precipitating boundary layers and shear. In this study, we apply a Lagrangian particle model (PM-ABL v1.0), governed by a Langevin stochastic differential equation, to create a simplified framework for predicting the rate of spreading from a ship-injected aerosol plume in sheared, precipitating, and non-precipitating boundary layers. The velocity and position of each stochastic particle is predicted with the acceleration of each particle being driven by the turbulent kinetic energy, dissipation rate, momentum variance, and mean wind. These inputs to the stochastic particle velocity equation are derived from high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LES) equipped with a prognostic aerosol–cloud microphysics scheme (UW-SAM) to simulate an aerosol injection from a ship into a cloud-topped marine boundary layer. The resulting spreading rate from the reduced-order stochastic model is then compared to the spreading rate in the LES. The stochastic particle velocity representation is shown to reasonably reproduce spreading rates in sheared, precipitating, and non-precipitating cases using domain-averaged turbulent statistics from the LES.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗

Flow field characteristics of a 127-pin rod bundle with hexagonal spacer grids

A determination of nominal flow phenomena in liquid metal fast reactor (LMFR) fuel assemblies is critical toward generation-IV reactor development. Axially positioned spacer grids are used to maintain the geometry of hexagonal rod bundles and simultaneously introduce perturbations in the flow. Three-dimensional (3D) printed asymmetric honeycomb spacer grids were installed in a prototypical 127-pin LMFR fuel assembly model to study complex fluid dynamics interactions induced by the spacer grid and rods. To characterize flow dynamics in this intricate geometry, time-resolved particle image velocimetry (TR-PIV) using the matched-index-of-refraction method was employed to obtain non-intrusive velocity measurements for three axial planes (one near-wall and two interior planes) at a Reynolds number of 6000. The statistical TR-PIV results compared sub-channel-dependent normalized time-averaged velocity, velocity fluctuations, Reynolds stress, vorticity, and turbulence kinetic energy distributions. TR-PIV line profiles characterized downstream spacer grid flow dynamics. Two-point spatial and spatial–temporal cross-correlation fields revealed local coherent structures and quantified convection velocities of traveling vortices. Spatial–temporal decomposition using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) applied to the near-wall vorticity fields extracted turbulent structures and flow instabilities in the wake region of the spacer grid, along with their decay and frequency rates. Reduced-order velocity fields from DMD reconstructions identified the most energy-containing coherent structures persistent in the near-wall region. This research provides experimental data sets and analyses of flow behavior in rod bundles with hexagonal spacer grids. In conclusion, the results are critical toward LMFR design and geometry optimization, crucial for the validation of computational fluid dynamics and reduced-order flow models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Numerical study of the effect of propped surface area and fracture conductivity on shale gas production: Application for multi-size proppant pumping schedule design

Hydraulic fracturing is a technique extensively used in the oil and gas industry, where water, proppant (sand) and additives are injected into unconventional reservoirs to enhance the recovery of shale hydrocarbon. Although some previous studies have developed pumping schedules that maximize gas production for a single-size proppant, there are very few studies that consider the effect of varying proppant diameters across pumping stages on shale gas production. Motivated by this, we carried out an extensive sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of different proppant diameters on the average fracture conductivity (FC), average propped surface area (PSA) and cumulative shale gas production volume. We found out that the cumulative shale gas production volume depends on both the average PSA and average FC. We also found out that small-diameter proppant resulted in higher average PSA and lower average FC, whereas large-diameter proppant resulted in lower average PSA and higher average FC. Hence, we designed a multi-size proppant pumping schedule considering both of these parameters into account for simultaneously propagating multiple fractures to maximize shale gas production from unconventional reservoirs. Since the size of injected proppant particles determines the average PSA and average FC for the propped hydraulic fractures, we developed a novel framework called Sequentially Interlinked Modeling Structure (SIMS) to predict the average PSA, average FC and cumulative shale gas production volume at the end of 10 years for a given pumping schedule. Then, we used this SIMS framework to obtain a multi-size proppant pumping schedule that maximizes shale gas production. In closing, we demonstrated that the obtained pumping schedule gives a cumulative shale gas production volume greater than the values obtained from the existing pumping schedules.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Data-Driven Model Reduction of Multiphase Flow in a Single-Hole Automotive Injector

Fuel injector design has a substantial influence on the performance and emissions of direct injection engines. To date, large eddy simulations coupled with a single-fluidmixture modeling approach have shown great success in evaluating the complex interplay among injector design, fuel properties, and operating conditions on the injector performance. However, this simulation approach is too computationally expensive to be used by industry routinely for injector design due to the fine temporal and spatial resolution required to resolve wall-bounded flow within the injector. The work presented in this paper highlights a potential pathway to addressing this issue. To study the influence of injector design, fuel properties, and operating conditions on injector performance, large eddy simulations were performed to model the turbulent multiphase flow development through a side-oriented singlehole diesel injector. Using Latin hypercube sampling, the design space spanning a range of fuel properties, operating conditions, and needle lifts were explored. Two techniques for dimensionality reduction, namely proper orthogonal decomposition and autoencoders, were compared to evaluate their accuracy in representing the flow in a reduced dimensional space. Finally, based on the findings from this work, recommendations are provided in using machine learning approaches within the context of emulation to construct reduced-ordermodels for internal flow development relevant to automotive applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

tLaSDI: Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

Here we propose a latent space dynamics identification method, namely tLaSDI, that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The latent dynamics are constructed by a neural network-based model that precisely preserves certain structures for the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. The autoencoder and the latent dynamics are simultaneously trained to minimize the new loss. Computational examples demonstrate the effectiveness of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between a quantity from tLaSDI in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A fast reduced model for a shell-and-tube based latent heat thermal energy storage heat exchanger and its application for cost optimal design by nonlinear programming

Numerical simulation of latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems plays a fundamental role in studying the physical process and guiding the engineering design. Discretization of the PDEs describing the nonlinear solidification/melting process of phase change materials (PCMs) leads to a large-scale complex dynamics system, where the system behavior depends on a set of parameters. In a design setting, repeated model evaluations are required over the set of parameters results in significant computational burden. In this paper, an explicit analytic solution was built for the propagation of the solidification front in a cylindrical coordinate. The analytic solution approach is further employed to develop a low computational reduced model (RM) as a module for a shell-and-tube based LHTES heat exchanger. The levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is used as a design metric and the RM model is used to apply system-level constraints in the nonlinear programming formulation that facilitates efficient global optimal design of the PCM properties, flow conditions and tube geometries. The use of LCOE as the design metric prevents over design of the heat transfer rate and also establishes a fair ground for evaluation of different thermal storage technologies and their integrated applications with other systems. Optimal results showed that a higher effectiveness results in a higher LCOE; the velocity of the HTF and the length of the channel are highly correlated with each other; both larger PCM latent energy and conductivity result in lower LCOE.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Theory and numerics of subspace approximation of eigenvalue problems

Large-scale eigenvalue problems arise in various fields of science and engineering and demand computationally efficient solutions. In this study, we investigate the subspace approximation for parametric linear eigenvalue problems, aiming to mitigate the computational burden associated with high-fidelity systems. Furthermore, we provide general error estimates under non-simple eigenvalue conditions, establishing some theoretical foundations for understanding the convergence behavior of subspace approximations. Numerical examples, including problems with one-dimensional to three-dimensional spatial domain and one-dimensional to two-dimensional parameter domain, are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of reduced basis method in handling parametric variations in boundary conditions and coefficient fields to achieve significant computational savings while maintaining high accuracy, making them promising tools for practical applications in large-scale eigenvalue computations.

Eigenvalue problems↗

PCAfold 2.0—Novel tools and algorithms for low-dimensional manifold assessment and optimization

We describe an update to our open-source Python package, PCAfold, designed to help researchers generate, analyze and improve low-dimensional data manifolds. In the current version, PCAfold 2.0, we introduce novel tools and algorithms for assessing and optimizing low-dimensional manifolds. This includes a method that generates a “map” of local feature sizes that can help pinpoint researchers to problematic regions on a manifold. We introduce a novel cost function that characterizes the quality of a manifold topology with a single number. We develop two algorithms for feature selection based on principal component analysis (PCA) that use the cost function as an objective function to minimize. We introduce a quantity of interest (QoI)-aware dimensionality reduction strategy where data projections are computed using an artificial neural network and are directly optimized towards representing various projection-independent and projection-dependent QoIs. We also introduce an implementation of partition of unity networks (POUnets) for efficient reconstruction of QoIs from low-dimensional manifolds based on combining neural network classification with localized polynomial regression. Our software can be broadly applicable in all domains of science and engineering that aim to reduce data dimensionality, as well as in the fundamental research on representation learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reservoir Computing as a Tool for Climate Predictability Studies

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate models. In this context, the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that reservoir computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the preindustrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community Earth System Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC-based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data are plentiful and when such data are more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions—larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc.—suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator—the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory—is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMLM (Co-Optimized Machine-Learned Manifolds) [SWR-23-41]

Co-optimized Machine-Learned Manifolds (CMLM) is a data-driven approach for developing reduced-order manifold models for high-dimensional chemically reacting systems. It involves a specially designed neural network, the training of which simultaneously optimizes linear combinations of species that define the manifold, nonlinear mapping to outputs of interest such as reaction rates, and (optionally) subfilter closure for large eddy simulation. This software package provides an implementation of the CMLM approach in Python using the PyTorch machine learning library. A few example cases are included, showing how the tool can be applied to different types of data from 0D and 1D reacting simulations performed using Cantera. The neural networks can be saved in a format that is readable by the Pele suite of combustion solvers for use in reacting computational fluid dynamics simulations. This software repository contains several python scripts to perform various tasks associated with the Co-optimized Machine Learned Manifolds (CMLM) model, which is described in Perry, Henry de Frahan, and Yellapantula, CNF, 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.combustflame.2022.112286). This includes not only the code that defines the CMLM model, but also scripts to generate suitable training data, scripts to pre-process the data, scripts to train the CMLM model, and scripts to plot the output, as well as various other helper files. The scripts depend on several commonly used python libraries for data analysis and chemical reaction computations. The trained models that result from this tool are designed to work with the an interface being implemented in the Pele suite of reacting flow solvers (https://github.com/AMReX-Combustion).

Perry, Bruce↗

Vibration of a cryomodule’s coupler during road transportation: Multibody analysis and experimental validation

The road transportation of critical components for cryogenic cryomodules is a challenging task. Indeed, the shipping and the handling of fundamental sub-assemblies can expose these components to harmful dynamic loads that can jeopardize their structural integrity. This article has the purpose of developing a finite element multibody model capable of assessing the acceleration on a test coupler for a cavity of the Single Spoke Resonator 1 subjected to a typical road transportation trip. A multibody model consisting of rigid bodies and finite element–imported flexible bodies has been created allowing a comparison of the simulated and experimental acceleration. Afterwards, an experimental on-road test, whose set-up is described in this article, has been carried out at Fermilab with instrumented components. Being able to effectively simulate and validate the dynamic effects on such sub-assemblies makes it possible, for the future, to simulate more complex structures subject to dynamic loadings, such as the entire cryomodules during shipping. Furthermore, the results from the simulations can be used to guide the design of new suspension systems suitable for the reduction mitigation of structural vibration during the road transportation of cryomodules.

42 ENGINEERING↗