Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “reanalysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Use of MODIS Land and Sea Surface Temperatures to Initialize Mesoscale Models

As computer power continues to increase, mesoscale models are initialized at all hours of the day and continue to be run at higher and higher spatial resolutions. As a result, initializing land surface temperature can be problematic. The majority of research-based models are initialized at 00 and 12 UTC when upper air observations and reanalysis fields are available. The landsea surface temperatures are then set equal to the two-meter air temperature produced by the preprocessor analysis system. This particular procedure might be valid in the early morning hours just prior to sunrise, but it becomes less valid during the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Operational models, such as the Rapid Update Cycle run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), are initialized every hour on a daily basis. This presents a unique challenge to the initial specification of the land temperature, especially during the first several hours of the solar heating cycle when land and overlying air temperatures are far from being the same. Another issue that needs to be addressed is the spatial variability of land surface temperature. By early next year, the NCEP operational Eta model will be employed at 8 km resolution. Methods to accurately specify the initial land surface temperature at such high resolution need to be explored. This paper presents the results of using data from the NASA Moderate Imaging Sensor aboard the TERRA Satellite to initialize land and sea surface temperatures within the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) 5'th generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). We have simulated a northern Gulf Coast sea breeze case to demonstrate the utility of using the MODIS data to initialize both the land and sea surface temperature fields. Model grid configurations of 12-, 4-, and l-km are employed.

Arnold, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Determination of Storm Flashing/Non-Flashing Condition From Convective and Environmental Observations

A simple and fundamental problem in cloud electrification is whether or not a cloud can be determined to be producing lightning or not producing lightning, based solely on knowledge of its microphysical (and perhaps environmental) state. A merged database of TRMM radar, microwave and lightning observations and NCEP reanalysis environmental parameters is used to answer this question, for the tropics. The formal skill of traditional, univariate rule-based approaches (e.g., 35 dBZ occurrence at 6 km altitude) is quantified (via the probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR) and critical skill index (CSI)). Under indiscriminate application to the tropics, peak rule-based CSI for categorization of flashing storms is approximately 50%, with peak POD approximately 67% and minimum FAR approximately 33%, with peak CSI found for radar reflectivity-based parameters at 7-7.5 km altitude (near -15C). Separation of land and ocean domains yields approximately 5-10% gains in CSI over land. Conventional multivariate categorization techniques (discriminant analysis) are then applied, and less conventional (neural network) categorization techniques are also discussed.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Influence of Environmental State on Lightning and Convective Parameter Distributions

A merged and highly reduced database of TRMM level 1 (precipitation radar, microwave imager, lightning) and NCEP reanalysis (basic state, radiative and surface flux) data has been assembled for three years of the TRMM mission. This allows direct examination of the dependence of convective spectra (as observed through radar reflectivity, microwave brightness temperature and lightning flash rate) on environmental basic states and anomalies. Such analysis may be more physically justified and instructive than traditional geographic and/or seasonal binning. The dependence of convective spectra on several environmental forcing parameters is presented, including surface Bowen ratio (sensible heat to total turbulent flux), net atmospheric radiative flux convergence and net atmospheric enthalpy flux convergence. The latter are basic drivers of net moisture convergence in simple quasi-equilibrium models of tropical atmospheric convection.

Boccippio, D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Variational Analysis of Divergence Profiles Based upon Column-Integrated Mass, Moisture and Energetic Constraints with Satellite-Derived Boundary Fluxes

A diagnostic study is made of the mean global divergent circulation based upon a constrained least action principle that minimizes column-integrated divergent kinetic energy subject to constraints on mass, moisture, available potential energy (ape) and total kinetic energy. The concept of gross moist stability was incorporated in the prescription of Lagrange weight function associated with the ape constraint in order to simulate the net effects of cumulus convective heating in the tropics. The variational analyses were validated satisfactorily with the original NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis divergence fields for the Septembers of 1987 and 1988. Further analyses show that in the tropical ascending regions, the analyzed divergences are dominated by the mass and ape constraints; the moisture constraint is implicitly satisfied while the kinetic energy constraint is highly dependent on the ape constraint. In the subtropical descending regions, the analyzed divergences are dominated by the mass, moisture and kinetic energy constraints; the ape constraint is implicitly satisfied. When the constraint integrals were blended with the satellite-derived boundary flux data from GPCP precipitation and ERBE/SRB radiation estimates, the newly analyzed divergences are significantly stronger than the reanalysis divergences in the areas where the estimates of precipitation rates are higher. With few exceptions, the increases in upper-layer divergences are coupled with nearly equal increases in lower-layer convergences.

Lu, Huei-Lin↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Correlation Between Tropical Convection and Upper Tropospheric Momentum Flux Convergence

In this study, the relationship between tropical convection and the meridional convergence of zonal momentum flux in the tropical upper troposphere is investigated using NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation data and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis wind data. In particular, a variety of correlation coefficients are calculated between the data sets, both of which are filtered to isolate disturbances with frequencies and wavenumbers consistent with the Madden-Julian oscillation. The results show regions of significant correlation during each season, with the magnitude and area covered by significant correlation coefficients varying with season. Furthermore, it is found that the correlation structures look very similar to theoretical calculations of the atmospheric response to a region of tropical heating. This result suggests that tropical waves, in particular mixed Rossby-gravity waves, play an important role in the meridional transport zonal momentum into the deep tropical upper troposphere. Finally, these findings have implications to the generation of rising motion near the tropical tropopause, which in turn has ramifications for vertical moisture transport and tropopause cirrus formation.

O'CStarr, David↗
NASA NTRS2003

Seasonal Evolution and Variability Associated with the West African Monsoon System

In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident seasonality in synoptic-scale wave signals is shown to be a good evidence for this seasonal evolution.

Gu, Guojun↗
NASA NTRS2003

Determining the Biogenicity of Microfossils in the Apex Chert, Western Australia, Using Transmission Electron Microscopy

For over a decade, the oldest evidence for life on this planet has been microfossils in the 3.5 Ga Apex Chert in Western Australia. Recently, the biogenicity of these carbon-rich structures has been called into question through reanalysis of the local geology and reinterpretation of the original thin sections. Although initially described as a stratiform, bedded chert of siliceous clasts, the unit is now thought to be a brecciated hydrothermal vein chert. The high temperatures of a hydrothermal environment would probably have detrimental effects to early non-hyperthermophilic life, compared to that of a shallow sea. Conversely, a hydrothermal origin would suggest that if the microfossils were valid, they might have been hyperthermophilic. Apex Chert controversy. The Apex Chert microfossils were originally described as septate filaments composed of kerogen similar in morphology to Proterozoic and modern cyanobacteria. However new thin section analysis shows that these carbonaceous structures are not simple filaments. Many of the original microfossils are branched and have variable thickness when the plane of focus is changed. Hydrothermal alteration of organic remains has also been suggested for the creation of these strange morphologies. Another point of contention lies with the nature of the carbon material in these proposed microfossils. Kerogen is structurally amorphous, but transforms into well-ordered graphite under high pressures and temperatures. Raman spectrometry of the carbonaceous material in the proposed microfossils has been interpreted both as partially graphitized kerogen and amorphous graphite. However, these results are inconclusive, since Raman spectrometry cannot adequately discriminate between kerogen and disordered graphite. There are also opposing views for the origin of the carbon in the Apex Chert. The carbon would be biogenic if the proposed microfossils are indeed the remains of former living organisms. However, an inorganic Fischer- Tropsch-type synthesis is also a possible explanation for the formation of large-aggregate carbonaceous particles and could also account for the depletion of (13)C observed.

DeGregorio, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what ultimately is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of this mission as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. In this presentation, an overview of the GPM mission design will be presented, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk will address how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. Improved hydrometeorological forecasting will be possible by using continuous global precipitation observations to obtain better closure in water budgets and to generate more realistic forcing of the models themselves to achieve more accurate estimates of interception, infiltration, evaporation/transpiration fluxes, storage, and runoff.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellite-Based Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature Tendency in the Tropical Eastern Indian and Western Pacific Oceans for the 1997/98 El Nino and 1998/99 La Nina

The 1997/98 is a strong El Nino warm event, while the 1998/99 is a moderate La Nina cold event. We have investigated surface heat budgets and sea surface temperature (SST) tendency for these two events in the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans using satellite-retrieved surface radiative and turbulent fluxes. The radiative fluxes are taken from the Goddard Satellite-retrieved Surface Radiation Budget (GSSRB), derived from radiance measurements of the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5. The GSSRB covers the domain 40 deg S - 4 deg N, 90 deg E-17 deg W and a period from October 1997 to December 2000. The spatial resolution is 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg lat-long and the temporal resolution is 1 day. The turbulent fluxes are taken from Version 2 of the Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF-2). The GSSTF-2 has a spatial resolution of 1 deg x 1 deg lat-long over global Oceans and a temporal resolution of 1 day covering the period July 1987-December 2000. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from the S S M (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) surface wind and surface air humidity, and the SST and 2-m air temperature of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using a stability-dependent bulk flux algorithm. The changes of surface heat budgets, SST and tendency, cloudiness, wind speed, and zonal wind stress of the 1997/98 El Nino relative to the1998/99 La Nina for the northern winter and spring seasons are analyzed. The relative changes of surface heat budgets and SST tendency of the two events are quite different between the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. For the tropical western Pacific, reduced solar heating (more clouds) is generally associated with decreased evaporative cooling (weaker winds), and vise versa. The changes in evaporative cooling over-compensate that of solar heating and dominate the spatial variability of the changes in net surface heating. Both solar heating and evaporative cooling offset each other to reduce interannual variability of net surface heating. In addition, the area of increased SST tendency is larger than that of increased net surface heating, due to less solar radiation penetration through the bottom of deeper ocean mixed layer (stronger winds). For the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, enhanced solar heating (less clouds) is generally associated with reduced evaporative cooling (weaker winds). Both solar heating and evaporative cooling reinforce each other to increase interannual variability of net surface heating. In addition, the area of increased SST tendency is smaller than that of increased net surface heating in the southern domain. The relative changes in wind and zonal wind stress indicate more solar radiation penetration through the ocean mixed layer and more northward heat transport by Ocean current from the south to the north Indian Ocean for the El Nino than for the La Nina.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗
NASA NTRS2003

Anticipated Improvements in Precipitation Physics and Understanding of Water Cycle from GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late-2007 to early-2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, involving existing, pending, projected, and under-study partnerships which will link NASA and NOAA in the US, NASDA in Japan, ESA in Europe, ISRO in India, CNES in France, and possibly AS1 in Italy, KARI in South Korea, CSA in Canada, and AEB in Brazil. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international collaborators and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of GPM as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. An overview of the GPM mission design is given, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk addresses how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. These improvements become possible by using more accurate, more microphysically-centric, more frequent, and fully global precipitation observations to achieve better water budget closure and to provide more realistic forcing and assessment of prediction models.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Version 2 Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2)

The global air-sea fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat, radiation, and freshwater (precipitation-evaporation) are required for driving Ocean models and validating coupled ocean- atmosphere global models. Wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation, while evaporation is a key component of hydrological cycle and surface heat budget. We have produced a 13.5-year (July 1987-December 2000) dataset containing daily, monthly, and climatological surface fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat over the global Oceans from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiance easurements. This dataset is called version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF-2). The GSSW-2 has a spatial resolution of 1.0deg x 1.0deg lat-long. In addition, evaporation has been combined with the satellite-retrieved precipitation to produce monthly freshwater fluxes over the global Ocean for the same period. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from the S S M surface winds and surface air humidity, and 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using an improved stability-dependent bulk flux algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory. Hourly fluxes computed from the GSSTF-2 bulk flux algorithm using the observed hourly input variables validate well against those of ten experiments observed by the research ships over the tropical and midlatitude oceans. In addition, daily wind stresses, latent heat fluxes, wind speeds, surface air humidity and SSTs of the GSSTF-2 compare reasonably well with those of the collocated in situ measurements of the ten experiments. The global distributions of 1988-2000 annual- and seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes show reasonable patterns related to the atmospheric general circulation and its seasonal variations. The comparison of zonally-averaged wind stress and latent heat fluxes of the GSSTF-2 with those of other satellite products as well as the NCEPNCAR and ECMWF reanalyses for the annual mean and seasonal variations during 1992-93 will be discussed. .

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗
NASA NTRS2004

Tropical Diabatic Heating and the Role of Convective Processes as Represented in Several Contemporary Climate Models

One of the most fundamental properties of the global heat balance is the net heat input into the tropical atmosphere that helps drive the planetary atmospheric circulation. Although broadly understood in terms of its gross structure and balance of source / sink terms, incorporation of the relevant processes in predictive models is still rather poor. The work reported here examines the tropical radiative and water cycle behavior as produced by four contemporary climate models. Among these are the NSIPP-2 (NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project) which uses the RAS convective parameterization; the FVCCM, a code using finite volume numerics and the CCM3.6 physics; FVCCM-MCRAS again having the finite volume numerics, but MCRAS convective parameterization and a different radiation treatment; and, finally, the NCEP GSM which uses the RAS. Using multi-decadal integrations with specified SSTs we examine the statistics of radiative / convective processes and associated energy transports, and then estimate model energy flux sensitivities to SST changes. In particular the behavior of the convective parameterizations is investigated. Additional model integrations are performed specifically to assess the importance representing convective inhibition in regulating convective cloud-top structure and moisture detrainment as well as controlling surface energy fluxes. To evaluate the results of these experiments, a number of satellite retrievals are used: TRMM retrievals of vertical reflectivity structure, rainfall rate, and inferred diabatic heating are analyzed to show both seasonal and interannual variations in vertical structure of latent heat release. Top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from ERBS and CERES are used to examine shortwave and longwave cloud forcing and to deduce required seasonal energy transports. Retrievals of cloud properties from ISCCP and water vapor variations from SSM/T-2 are also used to understand behavior of the humidity fields. These observations are supplemented with output form the DOE Reanalysis-2.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Modeling and Observational Study of the Global Atmospheric Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Anomalies

A combined observational and modeling study considers the linkage between Antarctic sea ice and the climate of non-local latitudes. The observational component is based upon analyses of monthly station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis (NNR). The modeling component consists of simulations of the NCAR Community Climate Model versions 2 (CCM2) and 3 (CCM3) and the recent Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2). A convenient mechanism for communication between the Antarctic region (particularly the Ross Sea area) and the tropics and Northern Hemisphere is examined. The first evidence of this teleconnection came from CCM2 simulations performed during an earlier NASA supported project. Annual-cycle simulations with and without Antarctic sea ice show statistically- significant responses in monsoon precipitation over central and northern China during the month of September. The changes in monsoon precipitation are physically consistent with an intensified southwest Pacific (Northern Hemisphere) subtropical high in response to all Antarctic sea ice being removed and replaced with open water at -1.9"C. The intensified high is the northernmost component of three primary anomalies. The southernmost anomaly includes the Ross Sea area, where sea ice has been removed. An earlier study by Peng and Domros had also found a link between Antarctic sea ice and the East Asian monsoon circulation. The current project has helped to understand the teleconnection.

Bromwich, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

African Easterly Waves and Their Association with Precipitation

Summer tropical synoptic-scale waves over West Africa are quantified by the 850 mb meridional wind component from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. Their relationships with surface precipitation patterns are further explored by applying the data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite in combination with other satellite observations during 1998-2002. Evident wavelet spectral power peaks are seen within a period of 2.5 - 6 days in both meridional wind and precipitation. The most intense wave signals in meridional wind are concentrated along 15 deg N- 25 deg N. Wave signals in precipitation and corresponding wavelet cross-spectral signals between these two variables, however, are primarily located at 5 deg N- 15 deg N, the latitudes of major summer rain events. There is a tendency for the perturbations in meridional wind component to lag (lead) precipitation signals south (north) of 15 deg N. In some cases, either an in-phase or out-of-phase relationship can even be found between these two variables, suggesting a latitude-dependent horizontal structure for these waves and probably implying two distinct wave-convective coupling mechanisms. Moreover, the lagging relationship (and/or the out-of-phase tendency) is only observed south of 15 deg N during July-September, indicating a strong seasonal preference. This phase relationship is generally consistent with the horizontal wave structures from a composite analysis.

Gu, Guo-Jun↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Comparison of Latent Heat Fluxes over Global Oceans for Four Flux Products

To improve our understanding of global energy and water cycle variability, and to improve model simulations of climate variations, it is vital to have accurate latent heat fluxes (LHF) over global oceans. Monthly LHF, 10-m wind speed (U10m), 10-m specific humidity (Q10h), and sea-air humidity difference (Qs-Q10m) of GSSTF2 (version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes) over global Oceans during 1992-93 are compared with those of HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data), NCEP (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis). The mean differences, standard deviations of differences, and temporal correlation of these monthly variables over global Oceans during 1992-93 between GSSTF2 and each of the three datasets are analyzed. The large-scale patterns of the 2yr-mean fields for these variables are similar among these four datasets, but significant quantitative differences are found. The temporal correlation is higher in the northern extratropics than in the south for all variables, with the contrast being especially large for da Silva as a result of more missing ship data in the south. The da Silva has extremely low temporal correlation and large differences with GSSTF2 for all variables in the southern extratropics, indicating that da Silva hardly produces a realistic variability in these variables. The NCEP has extremely low temporal correlation (0.27) and large spatial variations of differences with GSSTF2 for Qs-Q10m in the tropics, which causes the low correlation for LHF. Over the tropics, the HOAPS LHF is significantly smaller than GSSTF2 by approx. 31% (37 W/sq m), whereas the other two datasets are comparable to GSSTF2. This is because the HOAPS has systematically smaller LHF than GSSTF2 in space, while the other two datasets have very large spatial variations of large positive and negative LHF differences with GSSTF2 to cancel and to produce smaller regional-mean differences. Our analyses suggest that the GSSTF2 latent heat flux, surface air humidity, and winds are likely to be more realistic than the other three flux datasets examined, although those of GSSTF2 are still subject to regional biases.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗
NASA NTRS2003

Fresh Water Content Variability in the Arctic Ocean

Arctic Ocean model simulations have revealed that the Arctic Ocean has a basin wide oscillation with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomalies (Arctic Ocean Oscillation; AOO) which has a prominent decadal variability. This study explores how the simulated AOO affects the Arctic Ocean stratification and its relationship to the sea ice cover variations. The simulation uses the Princeton Ocean Model coupled to sea ice. The surface forcing is based on NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and its climatology, of which the latter is used to force the model spin-up phase. Our focus is to investigate the competition between ocean dynamics and ice formation/melt on the Arctic basin-wide fresh water balance. We find that changes in the Atlantic water inflow can explain almost all of the simulated fresh water anomalies in the main Arctic basin. The Atlantic water inflow anomalies are an essential part of AOO, which is the wind driven barotropic response to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The baroclinic response to AO, such as Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre, and ice meldfreeze anomalies in response to AO are less significant considering the whole Arctic fresh water balance.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Multi-Wavelength Search for a Counterpart of the Unidentified Gamma-ray Source 3EG J2020+4017 (2CG078+2)

In search of the counterpart to the brightest unidentified gamma-ray source 3EG J2020+4017 (2CG078+2) we report on new X-ray and radio observations of the gamma-Cygni field with the Chandra X-ray Observatory and with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT). We also report on reanalysis of archival ROSAT data. With Chandra it became possible for the first time to measure the position of the putative gamma-ray counterpart RX J2020.2+4026 with sub-arcsec accuracy and to deduce its X-ray spectra1 characteristics. These observations demonstrate that RX J2020.2+4026 is associated with a K field star and therefore is unlikely to be the counterpart of the bright gamma-ray source 2CG078+2 in the SNR G78.2+2.1 as had been previously suggested.

Becker, Werner↗