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At least 613 records · Page 34

Probability Functions for Random Responses: Prediction of Peaks, Fatigue Damage, and Catastrophic Failures

This report reviews a number of theoretical matters in random process theory which can be applied to physical problems such as predicting peaks, structural fatigue damage, and catastrophic structural failures. The presentation emphasizes the basic assumptions which are involved, and discusses how to properly interpret the theoretical results. Various engineering examples are given as illustrations.

FATIGUE↗

Effects of adaptive task allocation on monitoring of automated systems

The effects of adaptive task allocation on monitoring for automation failure during multitask flight simulation were examined. Participants monitored an automated engine status task while simultaneously performing tracking and fuel management tasks over three 30-min sessions. Two methods of adaptive task allocation, both involving temporary return of the automated engine status task to the human operator ("human control"), were examined as a possible countermeasure to monitoring inefficiency. For the model-based adaptive group, the engine status task was allocated to all participants in the middle of the second session for 10 min, following which it was again returned to automation control. The same occurred for the performance-based adaptive group, but only if an individual participant's monitoring performance up to that point did not meet a specified criterion. For the nonadaptive control groups, the engine status task remained automated throughout the experiment. All groups had low probabilities of detection of automation failures for the first 40 min spent with automation. However, following the 10-min intervening period of human control, both adaptive groups detected significantly more automation failures during the subsequent blocks under automation control. The results show that adaptive task allocation can enhance monitoring of automated systems. Both model-based and performance-based allocation improved monitoring of automation. Implications for the design of automated systems are discussed.

Task Performance and Analysis↗

Establishing an upper bound for window response to the sonic boom.

Study of the failure of glass windows, which is probably the most severe problem confronting the SST program outside of the psychological and sociological aspects. The structural configuration most likely to suffer a window failure due to sonic boom excitation is one representable by a single large room, a single large window, and an open door. It is suggested that if the open door were replaced with another window the resultant stresses in both windows would be substantially reduced.

Seshadri, T. V.↗

Sensor failure and multivariable control for airbreathing propulsion systems

A new sensor/actuator failure analysis technique for turbofan jet engines was developed. Three phases of failure analysis, namely detection, isolation, and accommodation are considered. Failure detection and isolation techniques are developed by utilizing the concept of Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLR) tests. These techniques are applicable to both time varying and time invariant systems. Three GLR detectors are developed for: (1) hard-over sensor failure; (2) hard-over actuator failure; and (3) brief disturbances in the actuators. The probability distribution of the GLR detectors and the detectability of sensor/actuator failures are established. Failure type is determined by the maximum of the GLR detectors. Failure accommodation is accomplished by extending the Multivariable Nyquest Array (MNA) control design techniques to nonsquare system designs. The performance and effectiveness of the failure analysis technique are studied by applying the technique to a turbofan jet engine, namely the Quiet Clean Short Haul Experimental Engine (QCSEE). Single and multiple sensor/actuator failures in the QCSEE are simulated and analyzed and the effects of model degradation are studied.

Behbehani, K.↗

Analytic redundancy management for large flexible structures

An analytic redundancy management approach for on-line component failure detection is described and illustrated using a simulation of the NASA Langley Spacecaft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) research facility. The SCOLE experimental apparatus simulated is a functional model of the Space Shuttle with a large, flexible, offset-feed antenna cantilevered from the payload bay. This approach uses a single, active, Kalman filter selected from a bank of filters, each element of which was previously designed to accommodate a specific failure condition. The residuals of this active filter are processed through a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) filter to identify the failure state of the system and, hence, closing the failure accommodation loop, to select the active filter. Results are presented that illustrate the ability of the system to detect and recover from failures introduced in the angular rate and linear acceleration sensors on the SCOLE facility.

Shenhar, J.↗

Probabilistic risk analysis of flying the space shuttle with and without fuel turbine discharge temperature redline protection

An exact mathematical model is presented of the Space Shuttle Main Engine computer voting logic in the presence of High Pressure Fuel Turbine (HPFT) overtemperature events and fuel turbine temperature sensor failures. The model provides estimates of the probability of erroneous engine shutdown and the probability of not detecting a HPFT overtemperature event. Because it is believed that the likelihood of sensor failures and overtemperature events in the HPFT greatly overshadows those in the High Pressure Oxygen Turbine (HPOT), this modeling effort focused on the HPFT. However, because the redline protection logic is the same for both turbines, estimation of the model parameters using relevant HPOT data would provide estimates of the risk of erroneous engine shutdown and an undetected overtemperature event in the HPOT. Because of the complexity of the model, it was necessary to program the solution which thus makes it feasible to accommodate a changing data base. This is considered to be of great interest because of the subjective nature in determining the relevancy of certain failures and the fact that the data base is constantly changing as a result of the frequent engine tests.

Howell, Leonard↗

Systems analysis research

Equations of lunar motion, measurement of solar angular momentum, probability of electricity propulsion system failure, and smoothing of sequentially correlated processes

Source record↗

Command decoder unit

The design and testing of laboratory hardware (a command decoder unit) used in evaluating space shuttle instrumentation, data processing, and ground check-out operations is described. The hardware was a modification of another similar instrumentation system. A data bus coupler was designed and tested to interface the equipment to a central bus controller (computer). A serial digital data transfer mechanism was also designed. Redundant power supplies and overhead modules were provided to minimize the probability of a single component failure causing a catastrophic failure. The command decoder unit is packaged in a modular configuration to allow maximum user flexibility in configuring a system. Test procedures and special test equipment for use in testing the hardware are described. Results indicate that the unit will allow NASA to evaluate future software systems for use in space shuttles. The units were delivered to NASA and appear to be adequately performing their intended function. Engineering sketches and photographs of the command decoder unit are included.

Source record↗

Depriming of arterial heat pipes: An investigation of CTS thermal excursions

Four thermal excursions of the Transmitter Experiment Package (TEP) were the result of the depriming of the arteries in all three heat pipes in the Variable Conductance Heat Pipe System which cooled the TEP. The determined cause of the depriming of the heat pipes was the formation of bubbles of the nitrogen/helium control gas mixture in the arteries during the thaw portion of a freeze/thaw cycle of the inactive region of the condenser section of the heat pipe. Conditions such as suction freezeout or heat pipe turn-on, which moved these bubbles into the active region of the heat pipe, contributed to the depriming mechanism. Methods for precluding, or reducing the probability of, this type of failure mechanism in future applications of arterial heat pipes are included.

Antoniuk, D.↗

Beta-decay, Bremsstrahlen, and the origin of molecular chirality

A brief review is presented of the Vester-Ulbricht beta-decay Bremsstrahlen hypothesis for the origin of optical activity, and of subsequent experiments designed to test it. Certain experiments along these lines, begun in 1974 and involving the irradiation of racemic and optically active amino acids in a 61.7 KCi Sr-90-Y-90 Bremsstrahlen source, have now been completed and are described. After 10.89 years of irradiation with a total Bremsstrahlen dose of 2.5 x 10 to the 9th rads, crystalline DL-leucine, norleucine, and norvaline suffered 47.2, 33.6, and 27.4 percent radiolysis, respectively, but showed no evidence whatsoever of asymmetric degradation. Dand L-Leucine underwent about 48 percent radiolysis and showed 2.4-2.9 percent radioracemization. Other samples in solution were too severely degraded to analyze. Probable intrinsic reasons for the failure of the Vester-Ulbricht mechanism to afford asymmetric radiolysis in the present and related experiments involving beta-decay Bremsstrahlen are enumerated.

Bonner, W. A.↗

Performance analysis of fault-tolerant systems in parallel execution of conversations

The execution overhead inherent in the conversation scheme, which is a scheme for realizing fault-tolerant cooperating processes free of the domino effect, is analyzed. Multiprocessor/multicomputer systems capable of parallel execution of conversation components are considered and a queuing network model of such systems is adopted. Based on the queuing model, various performance indicators, including system throughput, average number of processors idling inside a conversation due to the synchronization required, and average time spent in the conversation, have been evaluated numerically for several application environments. The numeric results are discussed and several essential performance characteristics of the conversation scheme are derived. For example, when the number of participant processes is not large, say less than six, the system performance is highly affected by the synchronization required on the processes in a conversation, and not so much by the probability of acceptance-test failure.

Kim, K. H.↗

Bandwidth efficient CCSDS coding standard proposals

The basic concatenated coding system for the space telemetry channel consists of a Reed-Solomon (RS) outer code, a symbol interleaver/deinterleaver, and a bandwidth efficient trellis inner code. A block diagram of this configuration is shown. The system may operate with or without the outer code and interleaver. In this recommendation, the outer code remains the (255,223) RS code over GF(2 exp 8) with an error correcting capability of t = 16 eight bit symbols. This code's excellent performance and the existence of fast, cost effective, decoders justify its continued use. The purpose of the interleaver/deinterleaver is to distribute burst errors out of the inner decoder over multiple codewords of the outer code. This utilizes the error correcting capability of the outer code more efficiently and reduces the probability of an RS decoder failure. Since the space telemetry channel is not considered bursty, the required interleaving depth is primarily a function of the inner decoding method. A diagram of an interleaver with depth 4 that is compatible with the (255,223) RS code is shown. Specific interleaver requirements are discussed after the inner code recommendations.

Costello, Daniel J., Jr.↗

Reliability Assessment of a Robust Design Under Uncertainty for a 3-D Flexible Wing

The paper presents reliability assessment results for the robust designs under uncertainty of a 3-D flexible wing previously reported by the authors. Reliability assessments (additional optimization problems) of the active constraints at the various probabilistic robust design points are obtained and compared with the constraint values or target constraint probabilities specified in the robust design. In addition, reliability-based sensitivity derivatives with respect to design variable mean values are also obtained and shown to agree with finite difference values. These derivatives allow one to perform reliability based design without having to obtain second-order sensitivity derivatives. However, an inner-loop optimization problem must be solved for each active constraint to find the most probable point on that constraint failure surface.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

Optimization Testbed Cometboards Extended into Stochastic Domain

COMparative Evaluation Testbed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for the Design of Structures (CometBoards) is a multidisciplinary design optimization software. It was originally developed for deterministic calculation. It has now been extended into the stochastic domain for structural design problems. For deterministic problems, CometBoards is introduced through its subproblem solution strategy as well as the approximation concept in optimization. In the stochastic domain, a design is formulated as a function of the risk or reliability. Optimum solution including the weight of a structure, is also obtained as a function of reliability. Weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponded to unity for reliability. Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a compromised reliability approaching zero. The stochastic design optimization (SDO) capability for an industrial problem was obtained by combining three codes: MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life airframe component made of metallic and composite materials.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

AGR-5/6/7 Fuel Fabrication Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE NE) and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program (referred to as AGR Fuel program hereafter) are pursuing qualification of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel for use in high temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs). The AGR Fuel program was established to provide a fuel qualification data set in support of the licensing and operation of an HTGR. BWX Technologies Nuclear Operations Group (BWXT-NOG) was subcontracted to fabricate the fuel for the AGR program. Several investments and innovations were realized in preparation to fabricate fuel for the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiments that brought fuel fabrication fully out of the laboratory and into engineering-scale operations. These included: • Increased the kernel fabrication line capacity and uniformity • Upgraded ancillary support equipment and processes for the tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coating furnace • Demonstrated efficient production of the matrix precursor powder by dry jet milling of co mingled components • Demonstrated an engineering-scale method for quick and efficient overcoating TRISO particles with the matrix precursor • Demonstrated an automated, multi cavity compacting system with a volumetric feed system • Demonstrated a combined-cycle thermal treatment furnace These changes increased production rates of some of these processes by an order of magnitude or more while eliminating the use of flammable solvents, multiple grinding and sorting operations, and the weighing out of individual die charges. Three fuel kernel lots were fabricated for production of the fuel for AGR-5/6/7. The initial lot (J52R-16-39316) was certified to fuel specifications but was not used because the kernels had a high fraction of internal fissures that caused an unacceptable fraction of the kernels to fragment when charged to the coating furnace where the TRISO coating would be deposited. Fragmented kernels increased the dispersed uranium in the particles and produced a worrisome fraction of dimpled particles with an elevated probability of in-pile failure. After some efforts to identify the cause of the fissure formation, two additional lots were produced with much lower fissure fractions, J52R-16-69317 and 69318. The latter kernel lot was a backup to the first and was not needed. Multiple kernel batches were composited to form each of the lots so as to simulate a commercial-scale operation where kernel batches would also be composited. Multiple TRISO coating runs were performed and the product characterized so that several could be composited into a TRISO lot. TRISO lot J52R-16-98005 conformed to all fuel specifications except the mean outer pyrocarbon (OPyC) layer thickness was thinner than specified. Furthermore, it was determined that the TRISO lot had a dispersed uranium fraction (DUF) that might result in the compacts not meeting the DUF specification. A review of the role of the OPyC layer and consequences of the DUF by the Technical Coordination Team and INL concluded that the fuel was acceptable for use in the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiment. The TRISO particles were overcoated with the matrix precursor that had been produced in a jet-milling operation. The overcoating was performed in equipment originally designed to coat pharmaceuticals. The overcoating process performed well; producing highly spherical and uniform overcoats requiring little upgrading and no recycle or rework. TRISO particles were overcoated with the matrix precursor to achieve nominal volumetric packing fractions (PFs) of TRISO particles of 25% and 40% for the irradiation experiments. The 40% PF compacts occupy the first and fifth test capsule in the test train while the inner three capsules are loaded with 25% PF compacts. The resinated graphite matrix precursor powder was a derivative of the German A3-27 matrix formulation, which differs from previous AGR irradiation campaigns that used an A3-3 formulation. Jet milling of the matrix powder precursor produced a finer mean graphite particle size than the milling operations used for the A3-3 matrix powder precursor. Changes made in the matrix formula and equipment yielded compacts with significantly higher matrix density than was attained in previous AGR irradiation campaigns. The changes in the matrix formulation and the means of milling the powders also complicated resolution of the three fuel compact defect fractions, DUF, exposed kernel fraction (EKF), and the silicon carbide defect fraction (SDF). Characterization data from BWXT-NOG had some anomalous results, so samples of the fuel compacts and overcoated TRISO particles were also analyzed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to ensure that the defect fractions were accurately characterized.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Probability techniques for reliability analysis of composite materials

Traditional design approaches for composite materials have employed deterministic criteria for failure analysis. New approaches are required to predict the reliability of composite structures since strengths and stresses may be random variables. This report will examine and compare methods used to evaluate the reliability of composite laminae. The two types of methods that will be evaluated are fast probability integration (FPI) methods and Monte Carlo methods. In these methods, reliability is formulated as the probability that an explicit function of random variables is less than a given constant. Using failure criteria developed for composite materials, a function of design variables can be generated which defines a 'failure surface' in probability space. A number of methods are available to evaluate the integration over the probability space bounded by this surface; this integration delivers the required reliability. The methods which will be evaluated are: the first order, second moment FPI methods; second order, second moment FPI methods; the simple Monte Carlo; and an advanced Monte Carlo technique which utilizes importance sampling. The methods are compared for accuracy, efficiency, and for the conservativism of the reliability estimation. The methodology involved in determining the sensitivity of the reliability estimate to the design variables (strength distributions) and importance factors is also presented.

Wetherhold, Robert C.↗

A Numerical Solution Routine for Investigating Oxidation-Induced Strength Degradation Mechanisms in SiC/SiC Composites

The stress rupture strength of silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide (SiCSiC) composites with a boron nitride (BN) fiber coating decreases with time within the intermediate temperature range of 700-950 C. Various theories have been proposed to explain the cause of the time dependent stress rupture strength. Some previous authors have suggested that the observed composite strength behavior is due to the inherent time dependent strength of the fibers, which is caused by the slow growth of flaws within the fibers. Flaw growth is supposedly enabled by oxidation of free carbon at the grain boundaries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relative significance of the various theories for the time-dependent strength of SiCSiC composites. This is achieved through the development of a numerically-based progressive failure analysis routine and through the application of the routine to simulate the composite stress rupture tests. The progressive failure routine is a time marching routine with an iterative loop between a probability of fiber survival equation and a force equilibrium equation within each time step. Failure of the composite is assumed to initiate near a matrix crack and the progression of fiber failures occurs by global load sharing. The probability of survival equation is derived from consideration of the strength of ceramic fibers with randomly occurring and slow growing flaws as well as the mechanical interaction between the fibers and matrix near a matrix crack. The force equilibrium equation follows from the global load sharing presumption. The results of progressive failure analyses of the composite tests suggest that the relationship between time and stress-rupture strength is attributed almost entirely to the slow flaw growth within the fibers. Although other mechanisms may be present, they appear to have only a minor influence on the observed time dependent behavior.

degradation↗

Modeling of a bubble-memory organization with self-checking translators to achieve high reliability.

Study of the design and modeling of a highly reliable bubble-memory system that has the capabilities of: (1) correcting a single 16-adjacent bit-group error resulting from failures in a single basic storage module (BSM), and (2) detecting with a probability greater than 0.99 any double errors resulting from failures in BSM's. The results of the study justify the design philosophy adopted of employing memory data encoding and a translator to correct single group errors and detect double group errors to enhance the overall system reliability.

Bouricius, W. G.↗