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At least 613 records · Page 34

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NASA NTRS2012

Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-Scale Composite Behavior

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the non-deterministic composite response at all composite scales (from micro to structural) due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties, in the fabrication process and in structural variables (primitive variables). The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of composite behavior, such as material properties, laminate and structural responses. Bi-products of the methodology are probabilistic sensitivities of the composite primitive variables. The methodology has been implemented into the computer codes PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer) and IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in composite typical laminates and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Available experimental data of composite laminate behavior at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN. Multi-scaling is extended to simulate probabilistic thermo-mechanical fatigue and to simulate the probabilistic design of a composite redome in order to illustrate its versatility. Results show that probabilistic fatigue can be simulated for different temperature amplitudes and for different cyclic stress magnitudes. Results also show that laminate configurations can be selected to increase the redome reliability by several orders of magnitude without increasing the laminate thickness--a unique feature of structural composites. The old reference denotes that nothing fundamental has been done since that time.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autoregressive Neural Network for Simulating Open Quantum Systems via a Probabilistic Formulation

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundation for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this Letter, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure, we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of string states to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one-dimensional and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our Letter provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid deep neural operator/finite element method for ice-sheet modeling

One of the most challenging and consequential problems in climate modeling is to provide probabilistic projections of sea level rise. A large part of the uncertainty of sea level projections is due to uncertainty in ice sheet dynamics. At the moment, accurate quantification of the uncertainty is hindered by the cost of ice sheet computational models. In this work we develop a hybrid approach to approximate existing ice sheet models at a fraction of their cost. Our approach consists of replacing the finite element model for the momentum equations for the ice velocity, the most expensive part of an ice sheet model, with a Deep Operator Network, while we retain a classic finite element discretization for the evolution of the ice thickness. We show that the resulting hybrid model is very accurate and it is an order of magnitude faster than the traditional finite element model. Further, a distinctive feature of the proposed model, compared to other neural network approaches, is that it can handle high-dimensional parameter spaces (parameter fields) such as the basal friction at the bed of the glacier and can therefore be used for generating samples for uncertainty quantification. Further, we study the impact of hyper-parameters, number of unknowns and correlation length of the parameter distribution on the training and accuracy of the Deep Operator Network on a synthetic ice sheet model. We then target the evolution of the Humboldt glacier in Greenland and show that our hybrid model can provide accurate statistics of the glacier mass loss and can be effectively used to accelerate the quantification of uncertainty.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Guide for Improved Resource Adequacy Assessments in Evolving Power Systems: Institutional and Technical Dimensions

This paper identifies and evaluates issues in traditional resource adequacy (RA) assessment practices, and how adjusting these practices may affect and depend on existing institutional arrangements for planning and procurement. The paper proposes a technical-institutional roadmap that would allow regulators in vertically-integrated jurisdictions and system planners and operators in restructured jurisdictions to revise RA practices across a range of components. First, we compile a critical review of current RA assessment practices based on (1) interviews with RA practitioners and (2) a review of recent technical literature. We find that (i) RA may need to expand beyond capacity adequacy to ensure energy adequacy – relevant for energy-limited resources such as storage – and potentially some form of ancillary service adequacy (e.g. enough ramping-up and ramping-down capability in the system); (ii) chronological hourly simulations for all hours in the year are the current best practice; (iii) metrics and models used do not reflect economic criteria in system operation and loss of load; and (iv) there is a need to improve representation of weather dependencies and weather data. Second, we review planning and RA reports for several private and public entities that plan generation and/or transmission infrastructure in the continental U.S. to look for existing practices involving resilience assessments. We find no systematic treatment of the costs of extreme weather and other hazards, the benefits of resilience, and resilience metrics in planning analyses and no systematic treatment of resilience metrics, methods, and outcomes for resource adequacy purposes. Third, we create a technical framework for probabilistic RA assessment and use it to study how key choices about how to model power system operations affect the values that are obtained for RA metrics. We find that (i) non-economic dispatch schemes that ignore economic objectives can lead to accurate RA assessments when coordinated with detailed operational strategies; (ii) multi-year data is critical to capture a wide variety of system conditions; (iii) not incorporating transmission limits into RA assessment could lead to substantial underestimation of traditional “expected value” RA metrics; and (iv) new RA metrics that capture event-specific shortfall characteristics should be used as supplements to traditional metrics. Finally, we examine RA assessments and use this information to propose a guide of evolving industry standards for resource adequacy assessments in resource planning and transmission planning. We report minimum, best, and frontier practices for temporal resolution of assessments, metrics and targets, weather data, load forecasting, characterization of variable renewable resources, characterization of transmission and market transactions, RA modeling and integration with planning processes, and capacity accreditation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic constitutive relationships for cyclic material strength models

A methodology is developed that provides a probabilistic treatment for the lifetime of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to fatigue. Material strength degradation models, based on primitive variables, include both a fatigue strength reduction model and a fatigue crack growth model. Probabilistic analysis is based on simulation, and both maximum entropy and maximum penalized likelihood methods are used for the generation of probability density functions. The resulting constitutive relationships are included in several computer programs.

Boyce, L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic analysis for fatigue strength degradation of materials

This report presents the results of the first year of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by the University of Texas at San Antonio. The research included development of methodology that provides a probabilistic treatment of lifetime prediction of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to fatigue. Material strength degradation models, based on primitive variables, include both a fatigue strength reduction model and a fatigue crack growth model. Linear elastic fracture mechanics is utilized in the latter model. Probabilistic analysis is based on simulation, and both maximum entropy and maximum penalized likelihood methods are used for the generation of probability density functions. The resulting constitutive relationships are included in several computer programs, RANDOM2, RANDOM3, and RANDOM4. These programs determine the random lifetime of an engine component, in mechanical load cycles, to reach a critical fatigue strength or crack size. The material considered was a cast nickel base superalloy, one typical of those used in the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Royce, Lola↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adopting an Objectives-Driven Assurance Case Approach for Achieving Space Flight Mission Planetary Protection Objectives

Traditionally, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has utilized prescriptive technical and process requirements to ensure safety and mission assurance performance objectives for planetary protection are achieved during space flight missions. While prescriptive requirements may be easier to communicate and manage throughout the systems engineering process, the highly constrained nature of prescriptive requirements can limit the ability to take advantage of cost-saving opportunities and offer limited ability to explore other options or alternative designs, processes, and methods. It can also be difficult to develop prescriptive requirements for objectives that are probabilistic in nature or that cannot be satisfied by direct verification. In contrast, the development of an assurance case allows for a compelling, comprehensible, and valid argument to be developed with supporting evidence that shows safety and mission assurance objectives have been satisfied. Analogous to how patent applications are constructed for inventions, an assurance case has a high-level claim of meeting a safety and mission assurance objective, followed by a more specific set of sub-claims and technical evidence which supports the claims. The objectives-driven assurance case approach allows for a better understanding and exploration of the trade space, more flexibility to balance trades, and the ability to realize and implement technical and process innovations for resource, time, and cost savings. The assurance case is a living case that evolves over the entire program life cycle. Recently, NASA’s Office of Planetary Protection (OPP) has adopted the assurance case approach as an acceptable methodology for demonstrating avoidance of contamination of target solar system bodies explored by NASA space flight missions. This methodology has been incorporated into NASA’s new technical standard for planetary protection and is currently being utilized by the Mars Sample Return campaign for safe sample containment during sample return.

Assurance Case↗

DOE OSTI2022

Memory row recording for mitigating crosstalk in dynamic random access memory

A method includes adding a set of one or more victim rows to a first probabilistic filter and to a second probabilistic filter, in response to a memory access request, identifying a candidate victim row adjacent to a memory address specified by a memory access request, identifying the candidate victim row as a victim row in the set of victim rows based on performing a lookup of the candidate victim row in a selected filter, where the selected filter includes one of the first probabilistic filter and the second probabilistic filter, in response to identifying the candidate row as the victim row, enabling a row hammering countermeasure, clearing the first probabilistic filter in each of a first set of time periods, and clearing the second probabilistic filter in each of a second set of time periods interleaved with the first set of time periods.

SeyedzadehDelcheh, SeyedMohammad↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Stochastic Stability of Deep Markov Models

Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models which are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models have not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, we present a novel stability analysis method and provide sufficient conditions of DMM's stochastic stability. The proposed stability analysis is based on the contraction of probabilistic maps modeled by deep neural networks. We make connections between the spectral properties of neural network's weights and different types of used activation function on the stability and overall dynamic behavior of DMMs with Gaussian distributions. Based on the theory, we propose a few practical methods for designing constrained DMMs with guaranteed stability. We empirically substantiate our theoretical results via intuitive numerical experiments using the proposed stability constraints.

Drgona, Jan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Passive Safety System Reliability Analysis: Methodology, Application, and Results

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to provide assurance that certain safety functions, such as reactivity control and reactor heat removal, are maintained during transient scenarios. The performance of these systems is sensitive to boundary and environmental conditions and can lead to functional failure, which is the inability of the system to perform as intended even without any physical failures. Additionally, conditions can cause the passive systems to operate in an intermediate or degraded state. These operational modes of passive systems and their overall reliability can be difficult to capture in traditional probabilistic frameworks where discrete operating modes are assumed or time-dependent boundary conditions are not accounted for. Novel strategies and methods are needed to be able to capture the reliability of these passive systems and their impact on facility safety. The current abstract provides a summary of such a methodology and examples of its use in a case study, the GE Hitachi (GEH) PRISM probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) PSA.

Bucknor, M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced-dimension Bayesian optimization for model calibration of transient vapor compression cycles

Development and calibration of first-principles dynamic models of vapor compression cycles (VCCs) is of critical importance for applications that include control design and fault detection and diagnostics. Nevertheless, the inherent complexity of models that are represented by large systems of differential–algebraic equations leads to significant challenges for model calibration processes that utilize classical gradient-based methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient and gradient-free approach using a probabilistic surrogate model and optimal search over a feasible parameter space. Despite the benefits of BO in reducing computational costs, challenges remain in dealing with a high-dimensional calibration task resulting from a large set of parameters that have significant impacts on system behavior and need to be calibrated simultaneously. This paper presents a reduced-dimension BO framework for calibrating transient VCCs models where the calibration space is projected to a low-dimensional subspace for accelerating convergence of the solution algorithm and consequently reducing the number of transient simulations. The proposed approach was demonstrated via two case studies associated with different VCC applications where 10 parameters were calibrated in each case using laboratory measurements. The reduced-dimension BO framework only required 1 / 8 th of the iterations associated with a standard BO method that deals with high-dimensional calibration parameters for converged solutions and yielded comparable accuracy. Furthermore, both calibrated models revealed significant accuracy improvements compared to uncalibrated models.

Ma, Jiacheng↗

NASA NTRS1998

Methods and Techniques for Risk Prediction of Space Shuttle Upgrades

Since the Space Shuttle Accident in 1986, NASA has been trying to incorporate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in decisions concerning the Space Shuttle and other NASA projects. One major study NASA is currently conducting is in the PRA area in establishing an overall risk model for the Space Shuttle System. The model is intended to provide a tool to predict the Shuttle risk and to perform sensitivity analyses and trade studies including evaluation of upgrades. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and its prime contractors including Pratt and Whitney (P&W) are part of the NASA team conducting the PRA study. MSFC responsibility involves modeling the External Tank (ET), the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), and the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). A major challenge that faced the PRA team is modeling the shuttle upgrades. This mainly includes the P&W High Pressure Fuel Turbopump (HPFTP) and the High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (HPOTP). The purpose of this paper is to discuss the various methods and techniques used for predicting the risk of the P&W redesigned HPFTP and HPOTP.

Hoffman, Chad R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Optimizing Space Data-Communications Scheduling Method and Algorithm with Interference Mitigation, Generalized for a Broad Class of Optimization Problems

NASA's space data-communications infrastructure-the Space Network and the Ground Network-provide scheduled (as well as some limited types of unscheduled) data-communications services to user spacecraft. The Space Network operates several orbiting geostationary platforms (the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)), each with its own servicedelivery antennas onboard. The Ground Network operates service-delivery antennas at ground stations located around the world. Together, these networks enable data transfer between user spacecraft and their mission control centers on Earth. Scheduling data-communications events for spacecraft that use the NASA communications infrastructure-the relay satellites and the ground stations-can be accomplished today with software having an operational heritage dating from the 1980s or earlier. An implementation of the scheduling methods and algorithms disclosed and formally specified herein will produce globally optimized schedules with not only optimized service delivery by the space data-communications infrastructure but also optimized satisfaction of all user requirements and prescribed constraints, including radio frequency interference (RFI) constraints. Evolutionary algorithms, a class of probabilistic strategies for searching large solution spaces, is the essential technology invoked and exploited in this disclosure. Also disclosed are secondary methods and algorithms for optimizing the execution efficiency of the schedule-generation algorithms themselves. The scheduling methods and algorithms as presented are adaptable to accommodate the complexity of scheduling the civilian and/or military data-communications infrastructure within the expected range of future users and space- or ground-based service-delivery assets. Finally, the problem itself, and the methods and algorithms, are generalized and specified formally. The generalized methods and algorithms are applicable to a very broad class of combinatorial-optimization problems that encompasses, among many others, the problem of generating optimal space-data communications schedules.

ground stations↗

NASA NTRS1985

Efficient algorithms for use in probabilistic finite element analysis

This paper investigates the use of Fast Probability Integration (FPI) algorithms in a Finite Element environment. A method allowing the representation of correlated fields in terms of a vector of uncorrelated transformed variables, based on the spectral decomposition of the variance-covariance matrix is developed. The response of the deterministic model corresponding to selected perturbations of these uncorrelated variables is then obtained via a Newton-type iterative scheme. The results of the perturbed problems are used to construct a local representation of the model's behavior in the neighborhood of the deterministic state, which the FPI algorithm will use to estimate the reliability of the system. Although the proposed strategy has thus far only been applied to linear elastostatics, the extension of the method to a broader class of problems appears to be feasible.

Dias, J. B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generation of Tunable Stochastic Sequences Using the Insulator–Metal Transition

Probabilistic computing is a paradigm in which data are not represented by stable bits, but rather by the probability of a metastable bit to be in a particular state. The development of this technology has been hindered by the availability of hardware capable of generating stochastic and tunable sequences of “1s” and “0s”. The options are currently limited to complex CMOS circuitry and, recently, magnetic tunnel junctions. Here, we demonstrate that metal–insulator transitions can also be used for this purpose. We use an electrical pump/probe protocol and take advantage of the stochastic relaxation dynamics in VO 2 to induce random metallization events. A simple latch circuit converts the metallization sequence into a random stream of 1s and 0s. The resetting pulse in between probes decorrelates successive events, providing a true stochastic digital sequence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗