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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Validation of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for a Generic Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor

This study looks to develop and validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) using INL’s Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) software. Validation against a General Atomics design involves matching event and fault trees to historical frequencies, with a goal of under 15% difference. The research aims to deliver a reliable PRA model to assess the safety of MHTGRs for use within high-temperature industrial applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Discrete‐Time Models for Spreading Processes in Complex Networks: A Review

Abstract Research into network dynamics of spreading processes typically employs both discrete and continuous time methodologies. Although each approach offers distinct insights, integrating them can be challenging, particularly when maintaining coherence across different time scales. This review focuses on the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA), a probabilistic f ramework originally designed for epidemic modeling. MMCA uses discrete dynamics to compute the probabilities of individuals transitioning between epidemiological states. By treating each time step—usually a day—as a discrete event, the approach captures multiple concurrent changes within this time frame. The approach allows to estimate the likelihood of individuals or populations being in specific states, which correspond to distinct epidemiological compartments. This review synthesizes key findings from the application of this approach, providing a comprehensive overview of its utility in understanding epidemic spread.

Granell, Clara↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic N - k failure-identification for power systems

This work considers a probabilistic generalization of the N - k failure-identification problem in power transmission networks, where the probability of failure of each component in the network is known a priori and the goal of the problem is to find a set of k components that maximizes disruption to the system loads weighted by the probability of simultaneous failure of the k components. The resulting problem is formulated as a bilevel mixed-integer nonlinear program. Convex relaxations, linear approximations, and heuristics are developed to obtain feasible solutions that are close to the optimum. A general cutting-plane algorithm is proposed to solve the convex relaxation and linear approximations of the N - k problem. Extensive numerical results corroborate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms on small-, medium-, and large-scale test instances; the test instances include the IEEE 14-bus system, the IEEE single-area and three-area RTS96 systems, the IEEE 118-bus system, the WECC 240-bus test system, the 1354-bus PEGASE system, and the 2383-bus Polish winter-peak test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic learning and updating of a digital twin for composite material systems

This paper presents an approach for characterizing and estimating statistical dependence between a large number of observables in a composite material system. Conditional regression is carried out using the estimated joint density function, permitting a systematic exploration of interdependence between fine scale and coarse observables that can be used for both prognosis and design of complex material systems. An example demonstrates the integration of experimental data with a computational database. The statistical approach is based on the probabilistic learning on manifolds recently developed by the authors. This approach leverages intrinsic structure detected through diffusion on graphs with projected stochastic differential equations to generate samples constrained to that structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982–2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic economic and environmental impact assessment of a cyanobacteria-based biorefinery

Microbial based biofuels represent a potential promising solution as an environmentally favorable transportation fuel. Cyanobacteria have many of the same advantages as microalgae: ability for rapid growth in otherwise non-arable regions, suitability for genetic engineering, and simple nutritional needs. Additionally, cyanobacteria can be engineered to secrete valuable co-products that can be harvested independent from the produced biomass. However, little work has been done to identify the processes and the economic and environmental impacts associated with a large-scale cyanobacteria-to-fuels facility. The present study is a concurrent techno-economic and life cycle assessment of a facility that generates fuels and methyl laurate, an oleochemical, from the cyanobacterial species Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. Here, the biorefinery model includes all aspects of cultivation, separation of the secreted methyl laurate, biomass harvesting and fuel processing via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the dewatered biomass. The assessments leverage Monte Carlo analysis (MCA) to address uncertainty and variability inherent in the most significant input parameters, replacing them with probabilistic functions. For the facility configuration producing both fuels and the oleochemical co-product, the MCA average minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) is $\$2.47$ per decimeter (dm 3 ) or $\$9.34$ per gallon of gasoline equivalent (gge) with the corresponding average global warming potential determined to be 118 g CO 2 -eq-MJ -1 . The case producing only fuels results in an MCA average MFSP of $\$2.01$-(dm 3 ) -1 ($\$7.60$-gge -1 ) and an average environmental impact of 100 g CO 2 -eq-MJ -1 . These results are compared to static optimistic and conservative scenario analysis estimates, illustrating the over- and under-estimation of outcomes associated with non-stochastic methods. Suggested facility improvements include increases in pond productivity of both the biomass and methyl laurate oil production, as well as improvements to carbon utilization and bio-crude yield from HTL processing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Spatial distribution of internal heat gains: A probabilistic representation and evaluation of its influence on cooling equipment sizing in large office buildings

Internal heat gains from occupants, lighting, and plug loads are significant components of the space cooling load in an office building. Internal heat gains vary with time and space. The spatial diversity is significant, even for spaces with the same function in the same building. The stochastic nature of internal heat gains makes determining the peak cooling load to size air-conditioning systems a challenge. The traditional conservative practice of considering the largest internal heat gain among spaces and applying safety factors overestimates the space cooling load, which leads to oversized air-conditioning equipment and chiller plants. In this study, a field investigation of several large office buildings in China led to the development of a new probabilistic approach that represents the spatial diversity of the design internal heat gain of each tenant as a probability distribution function. In a large office building, a central chiller plant serves all air handling units (AHUs), with each AHU serving one or more floors of the building. Therefore, the spatial diversity should be considered differently when the peak cooling loads to size the AHUs and chillers are calculated. Finally, the proposed approach considers two different levels of internal heat gains to calculate the peak cooling loads and size the AHUs and chillers in order to avoid oversizing, improve the overall operating efficiency, and thus reduce energy use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic analysis of masked loads with aggregated photovoltaic production

In this paper we present a probabilistic analysis framework to estimate behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation in real time. We develop a forward model consisting of a spatiotemporal stochastic process that represents the photovoltaic generation and a stochastic differential equation with jumps that represents the demand. Here, we employ this model to disaggregate the behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation using net load and irradiance measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site

Regulatory oversight of a geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) project relies on iterative estimations, throughout the project lifetime, of the area where increased risks to underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) may occur due to injection of CO2. This area, referred to as Area of Review (AoR), is typically delineated by predicting the migration of fluid between the reservoir and the lowermost USDW via an open wellbore using predictions from physics-based reservoir simulators. The inherent uncertainty in input parameters used in reservoir modeling therefore affects the accuracy of determining the AoR for a project. Furthermore, the standard analytical approaches for calculating a critical pressure to delineate the risk area yield an infinite AoR for cases where the injection reservoir is overpressured relative to the USDW. A methodology is presented in this paper to better characterize the risk to USDWs while accounting for the uncertainty in reservoir modeling, with an application to a permitted GCS project with an overpressured injection formation, FutureGen 2.0. The methodology is demonstrated using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to develop a probabilistic estimate of impact risk to USDW quality. CO2 and pressure predictions from the reservoir modeling conducted using the STOMP-CO2 simulator for the FutureGen 2.0 site are used in a NRAP-Open-IAM model with reservoir, wellbore, and aquifer components to: (1) assess the extent of potential leakage into the USDW for the predicted reservoir pressure conditions; (2) evaluate the extent of potential impact using “no-net-degradation” thresholds; and (3) account for uncertainty in reservoir permeabilities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unsupervised probabilistic models for sequential Electronic Health Records

We develop an unsupervised probabilistic model for heterogeneous Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Utilizing a mixture model formulation, our approach directly models sequences of arbitrary length, such as medications and laboratory results. This allows for subgrouping and incorporation of the dynamics underlying heterogeneous data types. The model consists of a layered set of latent variables that encode underlying structure in the data. These variables represent subject subgroups at the top layer, and unobserved states for sequences in the second layer. We train this model on episodic data from subjects receiving medical care in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated healthcare delivery system. The resulting properties of the trained model generate novel insight from these complex and multifaceted data. In addition, we show how the model can be used to analyze sequences that contribute to assessment of mortality likelihood.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Design optimization of a scramjet under uncertainty using probabilistic learning on manifolds

Here, we demonstrate, on a scramjet combustion problem, a constrained probabilistic learning approach that augments physics-based datasets with realizations that adhere to underlying constraints and scatter. The constraints are captured and delineated through diffusion maps, while the scatter is captured and sampled through a projected stochastic differential equation. The objective function and constraints of the optimization problem are then efficiently framed as non-parametric conditional expectations. Different spatial resolutions of a large-eddy simulation filter are used to explore the robustness of the model to the training dataset and to gain insight into the significance of spatial resolution on optimal design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital polycrystalline microstructure generation using diffusion probabilistic models

Accurate micromechanical simulation of polycrystalline materials requires a realistic digital representation of the grain scale microstructure. Here, this work demonstrates the use of a generative diffusion probabilistic model for synthesizing single phase polycrystalline realizations. The model performs well and is capable of producing realistic microstructures consisting of not just simple equiaxed structures but also structures exhibiting more complex spatial arrangements. Masked microstructure generation reveals that the model is context aware of morphological descriptors which may be encoded in the latent space. Training on more diverse data sets, with scaled up architectures, may enable development of future models capable of synthesizing even more complex microstructural features.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Probabilistic particle flow algorithm for high occupancy environment

Algorithms based on the particle flow approach are becoming increasingly utilized in collider experiments due to their superior jet energy and missing energy resolution compared to the traditional calorimeter-based measurements. Such methods have been shown to work well in environments with low occupancy of particles per unit of calorimeter granularity. However, at higher instantaneous luminosity or in detectors with coarse calorimeter segmentation, the overlaps of calorimeter energy deposits from charged and neutral particles significantly complicate particle energy reconstruction, reducing the overall energy resolution of the method. We present a technique designed to resolve overlapping energy depositions of spatially close particles using a statistically consistent probabilistic procedure. The technique is nearly free of ad-hoc corrections, improves energy resolution, and provides new important handles that can improve the sensitivity of physics analyses: the uncertainty of the jet energy on an event-by-event basis and the estimate of the probability of a given particle hypothesis for a given detector response. When applied to the reconstruction of hadronic jets produced in the decays of tau leptons using the CDF-II detector at Fermilab, the method has demonstrated reliable and robust performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing the need for an update of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using a SSHAC Level 1 study and the Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology

A key decision for nuclear facilities is evaluating the need for an update of an existing seismic hazard analysis in light of new data and information that has become available since the time that the analysis was completed. We introduce the newly developed risk-informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Review Methodology (referred to as the SHPRM) and present how a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed in an implementation of this new methodology. The SHPRM offers a defensible and documented approach that considers both the changes in seismic hazard and engineering-based risk information of an existing nuclear facility to assess the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The SHPRM has seven evaluation criteria that are employed at specific analysis, decision, and comparison points which are applied to seismic design categories established for nuclear facilities in United States. The SHPRM is implemented using a SSHAC Level 1 study performed for the Idaho National Laboratory, USA. The implementation focuses on the first six of the seven evaluation criteria of the SHPRM which are all provided from the SSHAC Level 1 PSHA. Finally, to illustrate outcomes of the SHPRM that do not lead to the need for an update and those that do, the example implementations of the SHPRM are performed for nuclear facilities that have target performance goals expressed as the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance at 1x10 -4 , 4x10 -5 and 1x10 -5 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A probabilistic assessment of PWR SNF cladding pinching failure considering potential transportation accident conditions

This report presents a probabilistic assessment of pressurized water reactor (PWR) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rod cladding pinching failure triggered by a transportation accident, after 300 years of dry storage. Three thousand pinching scenarios, which were previously evaluated assuming a baseline 9-m cask drop and a horizontal impact on an unyielding surface, are reassessed assuming more realistic train transportation accidents. Each scenario was defined using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of SNF rod conditions and loading parameters, and it is simulated with a nonlinear finite element (FE) model. Cladding failure is evaluated under consideration of hydride-related embrittlement effects. The reassessment indicates that cladding pinching failure is not significantly affected by the assumptions on transportation accidents, but is rather controlled by other parameters, mainly the pellet-cladding gap width. The reevaluated, conditional failure probability ranges from 1.62 E-7 to 6.47 E-7, for 5,000 km of transportation by train.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D probabilistic fracture mechanics / computational fluid dynamics simulation of a reactor pressure vessel under transient conditions

Reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) are safety-critical light-water-reactor components that, under irradiation, experience long-term material degradation in the form of embrittlement. This can increase their susceptibility to fracture under thermal-shock conditions, which could occur during off-normal transients such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). During a LOCA, the most severe conditions for the RPV occur when emergency core cooling water is injected through the cold legs into the water-and-steam-filled RPV. The rapid cooling of the downcomer and internal RPV surface causes decreased temperature and elevated thermally driven tensile stresses in the RPV wall. This, combined with long-term material embrittlement, may cause fracture initiation at pre-existing flaws, challenging the integrity of the RPV. Assessing RPV integrity during transients with a large spatial variation in the coolant temperature requires a modeling approach that considers the effects of spatially varying coolant temperature on the fracture probability of a population of flaws distributed throughout the RPV, accounting for spatially varying embrittlement. Here, the present study addresses this need by demonstrating first-of-its-kind coupling of a high-fidelity 3D computational fluid dynamics code with 3D probabilistic fracture mechanics This was accomplished using representative models of a pressurized-water reactor subjected to small- and medium-break LOCA conditions, both of which can result in large spatial temperature variations. While the observed impact of accounting for 3D effects was minimal under the small-break LOCA this study indicates a significant increase in the probability of fracture initiation under the medium-break LOCA when 3D effects are considered, relative to a spatially uniform cooling scenario.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗