Results for “precipitation prediction” — Page 34

NASA NTRS1977

A comparison between N2/+/ 4278-A emission and electron flux in the auroral zone

Visual airglow and low-energy electron experiment data from the Atmosphere Explorer D satellite are used to measure variations in N2(+) density and mixing in the nighttime auroral zone. The intensity of the 4278-A N2(+) emission, proportional to energy flux deposited in N2 by energetic electrons, is determined by a method which corrects for ground reflection affecting the satellite data. Calculations related to electron energy flux are found to show a slight variance from the theoretical predictions of Rees and Luckey (1974). Evidence for high-energy proton precipitation on the southern edge of the aurora and for the presence of parallel electric fields in the altitude range 150 to 800 km is also discussed.

Kasting, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Thunderstorm cloud height-rainfall rate relations for use with satellite rainfall estimation techniques

Observational studies of thunderstorm cloud height-rainfall rate and cloud height-volume rainfall rate relations are reviewed with significant variations being noted among climatological regimes. Analysis of the Florida (summer) and Oklahoma (spring) relations are made using a one-dimensional cloud model to ascertain the important factors in determining the individual cloud-rain relations and the differences between the two regimes. In general, the observed relations are well simulated by the model-based calculations. The generally lower predicted rain rates in Oklahoma (as compared to Florida) result from lower precipitation efficiencies which are due to a combination of larger entrainment (related to larger vertical wind shear) and drier environment. The generally steeper slope of the Oklahoma rain rate height curves is shown to be due to a stronger variation in maximum vertical velocity with cloud top height, which, in turn, is related to the greater static stability in the range of cloud tops. The impact of the regime-to-regime variations on empirical rain estimation schemes based on satellite-observed cloud height or cloud temperature information is discussed and a rain estimation approach based on model-generated cloud-rain relations is outlined.

Adler, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Electron energization in the geomagnetic tail current sheet

Electron motion in the geomagnetic tail current sheet is examined analytically. An estimation of the energization of electrons trapped by the convective field is made independent of a guiding center approximation. The electrons in the energy range 100 eV - 100 keV have their pitch angle scattered and trapped in the current sheet until accelerated by the convective field. Predictions are made for the electrons that escape the current sheet, electron precipitation in diffuse auroral phenomena and current sheet interactions as a source for plasma sheet electrons and ions.

Lyons, L. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Dynamic and static initialization of a mesoscale model using VAS satellite data

Various mesoscale weather forecast model initialization procedures were tested in seven simulation forecasts for a 12 hr period in July 1981. Attention was given to the impacts of using as input radiosonde data, VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data and a combination of VAS and data from a smoothed global analysis. The data were assimilated with successive correction objective analysis procedures. The model had a 60 km horizontal grid-length resolution, 14 layers in the vertical, and accounted for short- and long-wave energy in the surface energy budget but not in the atmosphere. Conventional data were used for the mass and moisture fields. The trials showed that VAS data enhanced the predictions of the temperature and mass variables, while winds were least accurately predicted when VAS data were entered in the initializations. Finally, statically initialized precipitation forecasts from radiosonde and/or VAS data exhibited equal skill.

Beauchamp, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Low-altitude signatures of the cusp and flux transfer events

Cusp-like ion injection was studied using DE-2 satellite data obtained during strongly southward IMF. Although magnetosheath ion injection signatures are detected, the satellite motion and convection are opposed, and it is suggested that the observed falling energy dispersion of the precipitating ions may have arisen from a static moving or growing source. The spatial scale of the flux is found to be typical of that of a flux transfer event (FTE). A simple model of the ionospheric signature of an FTE is able to reproduce the observed electric and magnetic field perturbations. Precipitating electrons with peak energies of about 100 eV lie on the predicted boundary of the newly opened tube and are similar to those noted on the edges of FTEs at the magnetopause.

Lockwood, Mike↗

NASA NTRS1999

Impact of Assimilating GOES-Derived Land Surface Variables into the PSU/NCAR MM5

Land surface processes are known to have a profound impact on the overlying atmosphere over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Many atmospheric numerical models include special parameterizations to improve the specification and partitioning of surface fluxes which are critical to the accurate prediction of warm season boundary layer behavior, organized mesoscale circulations, and convective precipitation. However, the added degrees of freedom resulting from the inclusion of vegetation and soil schemes require the specification of additional surface parameters such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. As satellite data have become more readily available in recent years, many investigations have attempted to use these new measurements to infer missing components of the surface energy budget. Sensitivity studies have shown land-skin temperature (LST) tendencies during the mid-morning hours are strongly sensitive to the surface moisture availability (a function of soil wetness and vegetation) and less sensitive to other parameters such as surface roughness. Based upon results from these and other studies, developed a simple technique that dynamically assimilates Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) derived land-surface products into the surface energy budget of a mesoscale model. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that assimilating the GOES satellite data has the potential to improve the representation of land surface characteristics within the model without prior knowledge of the land surface characteristics. The assimilation technique is presented in Section 2 and the numerical experiments are detailed in Section 3. Preliminary results and conclusions are presented in Sections 4 and 5, respectively.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Near Real-time Derived Products from MODIS

As part of the Short-term Prediction Research Transition (SPoRT) program at NASA/MSFC, near real-time total precipitable water and land/sea surface temperature products from MODIS, on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, are being derived from a subset of MODIS channels with spectral characteristics similar to those planned for the GOES-R ABI. Under the SPoRT program these products are made available to several NWS Forecast Offices to assist in the preparation of short-term forecasts. This transition activity, from research to operations, serves to prepare forecasters for the next generation of satellite observing capabilities through real-time, hands-on applications to their forecast problems. The derived products are produced from a physical retrieval algorithm which can be applied to polar or geostationary measurements. The algorithm is a perturbation solution of the radiation transfer equation for a nonscattering atmosphere requiring first-guess temperature and moisture profiles. For this application first-guess information is obtained from the latest model forecasts. The utility of this retrieval approach is that it provides a near real-time high resolution update of a model's forecasted parameter allowing forecasters to validate and monitor the performance of the model's forecast. The poster will provide a description of the retrieval methodology and examples of the derived products. Case studies will also be presented comparing these products with those obtained from the Earth Observing System (EOS) MODIS science team algorithms.

Suggs, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2013

Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa

Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

first flowering date↗

NASA NTRS2016

Parallel Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (ParaGrandMC) Simulation Code

This report provides an overview of the Parallel Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (ParaGrandMC) simulation code. This is a highly scalable parallel FORTRAN code for simulating the thermodynamic evolution of metal alloy systems at the atomic level, and predicting the thermodynamic state, phase diagram, chemical composition and mechanical properties. The code is designed to simulate multi-component alloy systems, predict solid-state phase transformations such as austenite-martensite transformations, precipitate formation, recrystallization, capillary effects at interfaces, surface absorption, etc., which can aid the design of novel metallic alloys. While the software is mainly tailored for modeling metal alloys, it can also be used for other types of solid-state systems, and to some degree for liquid or gaseous systems, including multiphase systems forming solid-liquid-gas interfaces.

Vesselin I Yamakov↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling Key Predictors of Airport Runway Configurations Using Learning Algorithms

Advanced traffic flow management automation will need accurate predictions of airport runway configurations. Terminal area weather and traffic demand are generally considered to be the most significant factors in predicting runway configuration. Weather information is forecasted across multiple features, including wind direction, wind speed, gusts, cloud ceilings, visibility, temperature, and precipitation, among many others. We use machine learning techniques on historical weather and runway data to determine weather features that correlate well with runway configurations. We analyze the predictive capability of weather features using different learning models trained on data from four major U.S. airports: Atlanta (ATL), Washington – Dulles (IAD), New York – Kennedy (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO). Wind direction alone is strongly correlated with runway configurations above all other examined factors, as expected. This correlation is the most significant component of the ~80% prediction accuracy in selecting between the two most frequently used runway configurations. However, individual airports show variations on how well the runway configuration decisions correlate with wind direction. While wind direction was identified as the most significant indicator of configuration decisions in ATL, IAD, and JFK, it did not emerge as such at SFO. Traffic demand was not found to be a strong factor in predicting runway configurations at any of the airports analyzed. In rare instances, when high demand cannot be accommodated within the current configuration, temporary changes are likely to be attributable to demand. However, these occurrences are so limited in number that their overall effect is not sufficient to consider traffic demand as a major indicator of runway configuration at the airports analyzed.

Bilimoria, Karl D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Parallel Grand-Canonical Monte Carlo (ParaGrandMC) User’s Manual Version 2.0

This manual describes the commands and command line options for the Parallel Grand Canonical Monte Carlo version 2.0 (ParaGrandMC.2.0) simulation code. This is a highly scalable parallel FORTRAN 2003 code for simulating the thermodynamic evolution of materials at the atomic level, and predicting their thermodynamic state, phase diagram, chemical composition and mechanical properties. The code is specifically designed to simulate multi-component alloy systems, predict solid-state phase transformations such as austenite-martensite transformations, precipitate formation, recrystallization, capillary effects at interfaces, surface absorption, etc., which can aid the design of novel metallic alloys. While the software is mainly tailored for modeling metal alloys, it can also be used for other types of solid-state systems, and to some degree for liquid or gaseous systems, including multiphase systems forming solid-liquid-gas interfaces. In addition to performing Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, the code can also perform Molecular Dynamics (MD) and Langevin Dynamics (LD) simulations, which can be combined and interchanged with MC for faster and more efficient system evolution. A detailed description of the MC part of the code is provided in the NASA ParaGrandMC report: NASA/CR–2016-219202; http://www.sti.nasa.gov.

High performance computing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-Source Science-led Development of the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) Mission Science Data System (SDS)

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) mission will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The AOS Science Data System (SDS) will be a system of systems developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of AOS mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for reprocessing (e.g., in near real-time or by collection) and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage. Further, AOS SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The AOS mission follows NASA’s lead in making a commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the AOS SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of SDS itself as well as AOS mission algorithms. Further, the AOS SDS assumes the role to lead and facilitate OSS activities for the AOS mission. This presentation describes the framework of the AOS SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the AOS mission.

David Giles↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-Source Science-led Development of the AOS Mission Science Data System (SDS)

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) mission will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The AOS Science Data System (SDS) will be a system of systems developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of AOS mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for reprocessing (e.g., in near real-time or by collection) and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage. Further, AOS SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The AOS mission follows NASA’s lead in making a commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the AOS SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of SDS itself as well as AOS mission algorithms. Further, the AOS SDS assumes the role to lead and facilitate OSS activities for the AOS mission. This presentation describes the framework of the AOS SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the AOS mission.

David M. Giles↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comprehensive Forward Model for Spaceborne Radar Instruments

We present the development and validation of a comprehensive forward model designed to enhance remote sensing capabilities of spaceborne radar instruments. To overcome limitations in existing models, we integrated a Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into our Radiative Transfer Model (RTM), focusing on microwave frequencies. By simulating the optical properties of non-spherical frozen hydrometeors, the DDA technique effectively reduced discrepancies between simulated and observed values, surpassing traditional Mie tables. The evaluation of DDA lookup tables involved comparisons with a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts and satellite microwave data, providing evidence of their superiority. Additionally, we address the challenges of assimilating active radar measurements, which offer vertically resolved insights into clouds and precipitation. We explored the assimilation of spaceborne radar measurements in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models by integrating a forward radar model, along with its adjoint and tangent linear, into the data assimilation system. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrated promising agreement between simulations and observations, particularly when the input hydrometeor profiles aligned with the measured reflectivity profiles, showcasing the potential of the developed forward radar model. Moreover, we discuss other challenges in radar measurement assimilation within NWP models, including potential observation errors and biases.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-Source Science-Driven Development of the Science Data System (SDS) for Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmospheric Missions

The NASA Earth System Observatory (ESO) atmospheric missions will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The Science Data System (SDS) will deploy the adaptive processing system (APS) developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of ESO atmospheric mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for near real-time and collection reprocessing and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage and distribution. Further, the SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The SDS follows NASA’s commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of APS itself as well as ESO atmospheric mission algorithms. This presentation describes the framework of the SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the ESO atmospheric missions.

David M. Giles↗

NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation Measurements from Space: Why Do We Need Them?

Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to be launched in the early next decade.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Precipitation Measurements from Space: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to bc launched in the early next decade.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of process history and underlying phenomena associated with the synthesis of plutonium oxides using Vector Quantizing Variational Autoencoder

Accurate, high throughput, and unbiased analysis of plutonium oxide particles is needed for analysis of the phenomenology associated with process parameters in their synthesis. Compared to qualitative and taxonomic descriptors, quantitative descriptors of particle morphology through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) have shown success in analyzing process parameters of uranium oxides. Among other candidates, a neural network called a Vector Quantizing Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) has shown the ability to quantitatively describe particle morphology to attain >85% accuracy in identifying uranium oxide processing routes. We utilize a VQ-VAE to quantitatively describe plutonium dioxide (PuO 2 ) particles created in a designed experiment and investigate their phenomenology and prediction of their process parameters. PuO 2 was calcined from Pu(III) oxalates that were precipitated under varying synthetic conditions that related to concentrations, temperature, addition and digestion times, precipitant feed, and strike order; the surface morphology of the resulting PuO 2 powders were analyzed by SEM. A pipeline was developed to extract and quantify useful image representations for individual particles with the VQ-VAE, then further reduce the dimensionality of the feature space using a bottlenecking neural network fit to perform multiple classification tasks simultaneously. The reduced feature space could predict process parameters with greater than 80% accuracies for some parameters with a single particle. They also showed utility for grouping particles with similar surface morphology characteristics together. Both the clustering and classification results reveal valuable information regarding which chemical process parameters chiefly influence the PuO 2 particle morphologies: strike order and oxalic acid feedstock. Doing the same analysis with multiple particles was shown to improve the classification accuracy on each process parameter over the use of a single particle, with statistically significant results generally seen with as few as four particles in a sample.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗