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At least 613 records · Page 34

Directivity Modes of Earthquake Populations with Unsupervised Learning

We present a novel approach for resolving modes of rupture directivity in large populations of earthquakes. A seismic spectral decomposition technique is used to first produce relative measurements of radiated energy for earthquakes in a spatially compact cluster. The azimuthal distribution of energy for each earthquake is then assumed to result from one of several distinct modes of rupture propagation. Rather than fitting a kinematic rupture model to determine the most likely mode of rupture propagation, we instead treat the modes as latent variables and learn them with a Gaussian mixture model. The mixture model simultaneously determines the number of events that best identify with each mode. The technique is demonstrated on four datasets in California, each with compact clusters of several thousand earthquakes with comparable slip mechanisms. We show that the datasets naturally decompose into distinct rupture propagation modes that correspond to different rupture directions, and the fault plane is unambiguously identified for all cases. We find that these small earthquakes exhibit unilateral ruptures 63–73% of the time on average. Here, the results provide important observational constraints on the physics of earthquakes and faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population

Abstract Strategies for creating quantitative projections for human systems, especially impervious surfaces, are necessary to consider the human drivers of climate and ecosystem change. There are models that generate predictions of how impervious surfaces may change in response to different potential futures, but few tools exist for validating those predictions. We seek to fill that gap. We demonstrate a statistically robust sublinear scaling relationship between population and urban imperviousness across a 15 year history. We show that Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) urbanization projections are also consistent with theory. These results demonstrate a theory that can be used to validate other models' predictions of urban growth and land cover change, analogous to the ways in which allometric scaling laws in biology have been used to validate process‐based models of ecosystem composition under different climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genome analyses reveal population structure and a purple stigma color gene candidate in finger millet

Finger millet is a key food security crop widely grown in eastern Africa, India and Nepal. Long considered a ‘poor man’s crop’, finger millet has regained attention over the past decade for its climate resilience and the nutritional qualities of its grain. To bring finger millet breeding into the 21 st century, here we present the assembly and annotation of a chromosome-scale reference genome. We show that this ~1.3 million years old allotetraploid has a high level of homoeologous gene retention and lacks subgenome dominance. Population structure is mainly driven by the differential presence of large wild segments in the pericentromeric regions of several chromosomes. Trait mapping, followed by variant analysis of gene candidates, reveals that loss of purple coloration of anthers and stigma is associated with loss-of-function mutations in the finger millet orthologs of the maize R1/B1 and Arabidopsis GL3/EGL3 anthocyanin regulatory genes. Proanthocyanidin production in seed is not affected by these gene knockouts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Plasmon mediated coherent population oscillations in molecular aggregates

The strong coherent coupling of quantum emitters to vacuum fluctuations of the light field offers opportunities for manipulating the optical and transport properties of nanomaterials, with potential applications ranging from ultrasensitive all-optical switching to creating polariton condensates. Often, ubiquitous decoherence processes at ambient conditions limit these couplings to such short time scales that the quantum dynamics of the interacting system remains elusive. Prominent examples are strongly coupled exciton-plasmon systems, which, so far, have mostly been investigated by linear optical spectroscopy. Here, we use ultrafast two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy to probe the quantum dynamics of J-aggregate excitons collectively coupled to the spatially structured plasmonic fields of a gold nanoslit array. We observe rich coherent Rabi oscillation dynamics reflecting a plasmon-driven coherent exciton population transfer over mesoscopic distances at room temperature. This opens up new opportunities to manipulate the coherent transport of matter excitations by coupling to vacuum fields.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Single-cell RNA sequencing reveals plasmid constrains bacterial population heterogeneity and identifies a non-conjugating subpopulation

Transcriptional heterogeneity in isogenic bacterial populations can play various roles in bacterial evolution, but its detection remains technically challenging. Here, we use microbial split-pool ligation transcriptomics to study the relationship between bacterial subpopulation formation and plasmid-host interactions at the single-cell level. We find that single-cell transcript abundances are influenced by bacterial growth state and plasmid carriage. Moreover, plasmid carriage constrains the formation of bacterial subpopulations. Plasmid genes, including those with core functions such as replication and maintenance, exhibit transcriptional heterogeneity associated with cell activity. Notably, we identify a cell subpopulation that does not transcribe conjugal plasmid transfer genes, which may help reduce plasmid burden on a subset of cells. Our study advances the understanding of plasmid-mediated subpopulation dynamics and provides insights into the plasmid-bacteria interplay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Population ecology and biogeochemical implications of ssDNA and dsDNA viruses along a permafrost thaw gradient

Anthropogenic-driven climate change is accelerating permafrost thaw, threatening to release vast carbon stores through increased microbial activity. While microbial roles are increasingly studied, the contributions of viruses remain largely unexplored, in part due to soil-associated technical challenges that have hindered their detection and characterization. Here, we applied an optimized virion enrichment workflow along a permafrost thaw gradient, identifying 9,963 viral populations (vOTUs), including single- and double-stranded DNA viruses, with 99.9% novelty compared to other soils. Hosts were predicted for 38% of vOTUs, spanning nine archaeal, and 36 bacterial phyla, 22% of which were linked to metagenome-assembled genomes, including key carbon-cycling taxa. Genomic analyses revealed 811 putative auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) from 658 vOTUs, nearly half involved in carbon processing. These included 59 glycoside hydrolases (GH) across nine GH families, 45 for monosaccharide degradation, and seven involved in short-chain fatty acid and C1 metabolism, linking viruses to both early and late stages of carbon turnover. Additionally, six vOTUs carried racD, which may stabilize microbial necromass and promote long-term carbon storage. Viral and AMG functional diversity increased with thaw stage, indicating that viruses might participate in a broadening range of microbial metabolic processes as permafrost thaws. These findings expand our understanding of virus contributions in microbial carbon processing and suggest their important role in deciphering soil carbon fate under changing climate conditions.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Experimental evidence for recovery of mercury-contaminated fish populations

Anthropogenic releases of mercury (Hg) are a human health issue because the potent toxicant methylmercury (MeHg), formed primarily by microbial methylation of inorganic Hg in aquatic ecosystems, bioaccumulates to high concentrations in fish consumed by humans. Predicting the efficacy of Hg pollution controls on fish MeHg concentrations is complex because many factors influence the production and bioaccumulation of MeHg. Here we conducted a 15-year whole-ecosystem, single-factor experiment to determine the magnitude and timing of reductions in fish MeHg concentrations following reductions in Hg additions to a boreal lake and its watershed. During the seven-year addition phase, we applied enriched Hg isotopes to increase local Hg wet deposition rates fivefold. The Hg isotopes became increasingly incorporated into the food web as MeHg, predominantly from additions to the lake because most of those in the watershed remained there. Thereafter, isotopic additions were stopped, resulting in an approximately 100% reduction in Hg loading to the lake. The concentration of labelled MeHg quickly decreased by up to 91% in lower trophic level organisms, initiating rapid decreases of 38–76% of MeHg concentration in large-bodied fish populations in eight years. Although Hg loading from watersheds may not decline in step with lowering deposition rates, this experiment clearly demonstrates that any reduction in Hg loadings to lakes, whether from direct deposition or runoff, will have immediate benefits to fish consumers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Gallionella and Sulfuricella populations are dominant during the transition of boreal potential to actual acid sulfate soils

Acid sulfate soils release metal laden, acidic waters that affect the environment, buildings, and human health. In this study, 16S rRNA gene amplicons, metagenomes, and metatranscriptomes all demonstrated distinct microbial communities and activities in the unoxidized potential acid sulfate soil, the overlying transition zone, and uppermost oxidized actual acid sulfate soil. Assembled genomes and mRNA transcripts also suggested abundant oxidized acid sulfate soil populations that aligned within the Gammaproteobacteria and Terracidiphilus. In contrast, potentially acid tolerant or moderately acidophilic iron oxidizing Gallionella and sulfur metabolizing Sulfuricella dominated the transition zone during catalysis of metal sulfide oxidation to form acid sulfate soil. Finally, anaerobic oxidation of methane coupled to nitrate, sulfate, and ferric reduction were suggested to occur in the reduced parent sediments. In conclusion, despite comparable metal sulfide dissolution processes e.g., biomining, Gallionella and Sulfuricella dominated the community and activities during conversion of potential to actual acid sulfate soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Inferring relative dose-dependent color center populations in proton irradiated thoria single crystals using optical spectroscopy

In this work, we have utilized photoluminescence spectroscopy and optical ellipsometry to characterize the dose-dependence of the photoluminescence emission intensity and changes in optical absorption of thoria single crystals subject to irradiation with energetic protons at room- and elevated-temperatures. The photoluminescence peaks and the optical absorption bands are attributed to creation of new electronic states emerging from defects resulting from displacement damage. These bands are most likely associated with electrons trapped at the oxygen vacancy sites similar to color centers formed in other irradiated oxides and halides. Our experimental observations are supported by a standard density functional theory calculation of the electronic structure in pristine and oxygen vacancy-bearing thoria crystals. The dose-dependence of the intensity of the photoluminescence peaks is used to parameterize a rate theory model that estimates the concentration of color centers in the irradiated crystals. This parameterization provides optimized migration barrier parameters for oxygen interstitials and vacancies that simultaneously capture the optical response of the crystals irradiated at room- and elevated-temperature. These optical spectroscopy techniques offer a promising pathway to characterize the population of color centers formed at the sites of oxygen anion vacancies, particularly in irradiated nuclear fuels, where atomic-level defects cannot be readily imaged using electron microscopy. When combined with other direct and indirect characterization tools, our approach can provide new insight into defect formation and accumulation in energy materials over single atomic to extended length scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulation of the photodetachment spectra of the nitrate anion (NO 3 ₋ ) in the B ~ 2 E' energy range and non-adiabatic electronic population dynamics of NO 3

The photodetachment spectrum of the nitrate anion (NO 3 ₋ ) in the energy range of the NO 3 second excited state is simulated from first principles using quantum wave packet dynamics. The prediction at 10 K and 435 K relies on the use of an accurate full-dimensional fully coupled five state diabatic potential model utilizing an artificial neural network. The ability of this model to reproduce experimental spectra was demonstrated recently for the lower energy range. Analysis of the spectra indicates a weaker Jahn–Teller coupling compared to the first excited state. The detailed non-adiabatic dynamics is studied by computing the population dynamics. An ultra-fast non-statistical radiationless decay is found only among the Jahn–Teller components, which is followed by a slow statistical non-radiative decay among the different state manifolds. The latter is reproduced perfectly by a simple first order kinetics model. The dynamics in the second excited state is not affected by the presence of a conical intersection with the first excited state manifold.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Population balance models for polymer upcycling: signatures of the mechanism in the molecular weight evolution

Chemical and catalytic upcycling processes could help realize a circular plastics economy, but current models for testing mechanistic hypotheses and designing catalysts remain primitive. This work shows how proposed catalytic mechanisms can be incorporated into population balance models to predict the time evolution of molecular weight distributions. We develop models for homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts, including catalysts that cut at chain ends and catalysts that cut at random locations. For heterogeneous catalysts, we illustrate the effect of adsorption constants that depend on polymer chain length. Here, we discuss ongoing efforts and challenges in measuring and modeling the time evolving molecular weight distributions in polymer upcycling processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

StarHorse results for spectroscopic surveys and Gaia DR3: Chrono-chemical populations in the solar vicinity, the genuine thick disk, and young alpha-rich stars

The Gaia mission has provided an invaluable wealth of astrometric data for more than a billion stars in our Galaxy. The synergy between Gaia astrometry, photometry, and spectroscopic surveys gives us comprehensive information about the Milky Way. Using the Bayesian isochrone-fitting code StarHorse, we derive distances and extinctions for more than 10 million unique stars listed in both Gaia Data Release 3 and public spectroscopic surveys: 557 559 in GALAH+ DR3, 4 531 028 in LAMOST DR7 LRS, 347 535 in LAMOST DR7 MRS, 562 424 in APOGEE DR17, 471 490 in RAVE DR6, 249 991 in SDSS DR12 (optical spectra from BOSS and SEGUE), 67 562 in the Gaia-ESO DR5 survey, and 4 211 087 in the Gaia RVS part of the Gaia DR3 release. StarHorse can increase the precision of distance and extinction measurements where Gaia parallaxes alone would be uncertain. We used StarHorse for the first time to derive stellar ages for main-sequence turnoff and subgiant branch stars, around 2.5 million stars, with age uncertainties typically around 30%; the uncertainties drop to 15% for subgiant-branch-only stars, depending on the resolution of the survey. With the derived ages in hand, we investigated the chemical-age relations. In particular, the α and neutron-capture element ratios versus age in the solar neighbourhood show trends similar to previous works, validating our ages. We used the chemical abundances from local subgiant samples of GALAH DR3, APOGEE DR17, and LAMOST MRS DR7 to map groups with similar chemical compositions and StarHorse ages, using the dimensionality reduction technique t-SNE and the clustering algorithm HDBSCAN. We identify three distinct groups in all three samples, confirmed by their kinematic properties: the genuine chemical thick disk, the thin disk, and a considerable number of young alpha-rich stars (427) that are also a part of the delivered catalogues. We confirm that the genuine thick disk’s kinematics and age properties are radically different from those of the thin disk and compatible with high-redshift (z ≈ 2) star-forming disks with high dispersion velocities. We also find a few extra chemical populations in GALAH DR3 thanks to the availability of neutron-capture element information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Star formation rate and stellar mass calibrations based on infrared photometry and their dependence on stellar population age and extinction

The stellar mass (M $\star$ ) and the star formation rate (SFR) are among the most important features that characterize galaxies. Measuring these fundamental properties accurately is critical for understanding the present state of galaxies, their history, and future evolution. Infrared (IR) photometry is widely used to measure the M $\star$ and SFR of galaxies because the near-IR traces the continuum emission of the majority of their stellar populations (SPs), and the mid/far-IR traces the dust emission powered by star-forming activity. This work explores the dependence of the IR emission of galaxies on their extinction, and the age of their SPs. It aims to provide accurate and precise IR-photometry SFR and M $\star$ calibrations that account for SP age and extinction while providing quantification of their scatter. We used the CIGALE spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code to create model SEDs of galaxies with a wide range of star formation histories, dust content, and interstellar medium properties. We fit the relations between M $\star$ and SFR with IR and optical photometry of the model-galaxy SEDs with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. As an independent confirmation of the MCMC fitting method, we performed a machine-learning random forest (RF) analysis on the same data set. The RF model yields similar results to the MCMC fits, thus validating the latter. This work provides calibrations for the SFR using a combination of the WISE bands 1 and 3, or the JWST NIR-F200W and MIRI-F2100W. It also provides mass-to-light ratio calibrations based on the WISE band-1, the JWST NIR-F200W, and the optical u - r or g - r colors. These calibrations account for the biases attributed to the SP age, while they are given in the form of extinction-dependent and extinction-independent relations. The proposed calibrations show robust estimations while minimizing the scatter and biases throughout a wide range of SFRs and stellar masses. The SFR calibration offers better results, especially in dust-free or passive galaxies where the contributions of old SPs or biases from the lack of dust are significant. Similarly, the M $\star$ calibration yields significantly better results for dusty and high-SFR galaxies where dust emission can otherwise bias the estimations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermal transport exceeding bulk heat conduction due to nonthermal micro/nanoscale phonon populations

While classical size effects usually lead to a reduced effective thermal conductivity, we report here that nonthermal phonon populations produced by a micro/nanoscale heat source can lead to enhanced heat conduction, exceeding the prediction from Fourier's law. We study nondiffusive thermal transport by phonons at small distances within the framework of the Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) and demonstrate that the transport is significantly affected by the distribution of phonons emitted by the source. We discuss analytical solutions of the steady-state BTE for a source with a sinusoidal spatial profile, as well as for a three-dimensional Gaussian “hot spot,” and provide numerical results for single crystal silicon at room temperature. If a micro/nanoscale heat source produces a thermal phonon distribution, it gets hotter than that predicted by the heat diffusion equation; however, if the source predominantly produces low-frequency acoustic phonons with long mean free paths, it may get significantly cooler than that predicted by the heat equation, yielding an enhanced heat transport beyond bulk heat conduction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding how minority relativistic electron populations may dominate charge state balance and radiative cooling of a post-thermal quench tokamak plasma

Minority relativistic electron populations can occur in a range of complex plasmas. Of specific interest is when runaway electrons form among the presence of high-atomic-number ion species in a tokamak plasma discharge. It has been recently demonstrated that ion charge state distributions and radiation losses at low bulk electron temperatures can be dominated by relativistic electrons, even though their density is orders of magnitude lower. Furthermore, this was attributed to the relativistic enhancement of electron impact inelastic cross sections. In this work, we provide a closer inspection of the atomic physics underpinning this effect. We also demonstrate the consequences of runaway enhanced scattering on post-disruption tokamak fusion discharges with neon and argon impurities present. Effects on charge state distributions, radiation and spectral characteristics, and reduced-order modeling considerations are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗