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At least 613 records · Page 34

Origin of coronal mass ejection and magnetic cloud: Thermal or magnetic driven?

A fundamental problem in Solar-Terrestrial Physics is the origin of the solar transient plasma output, which includes the coronal mass ejection and its interplanetary manifestation, e.g. the magnetic cloud. The traditional blast wave model resulted from solar thermal pressure impulse has faced with challenge during recent years. In the MHD numerical simulation study of CME, the authors find that the basic feature of the asymmetrical event on 18 August 1980 can be reproduced neither by a thermal pressure nor by a speed increment. Also, the thermal pressure model fails in simulating the interplanetary structure with low thermal pressure and strong magnetic field strength, representative of a typical magnetic cloud. Instead, the numerical simulation results are in favor of the magnetic field expansion as the likely mechanism for both the asymmetrical CME event and magnetic cloud.

Zhang, Gong-Liang↗

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Prototyping the Future

Advanced Ceramics Research (ACR) of Tucson, Arizona, researches transforming scientific concepts into technological achievement. Through the SBIR (Small Business Innovative Research) program, ACR developed a high pressure and temperature fused deposition system, a prototyping system that is known as extrusion freeform fabrication. This system is useful in manufacturing prosthetics. ACR also developed a three-dimensional rapid prototyping process in which physical models are quickly created directly from computer generated models. Marshall Space Flight Center also contracted ACR to fabricate a set of ceramic engines to be appraised for a solar thermal rocket engine test program.

Source record↗

3D MHD Models of Active Region Loops

Present imaging and spectroscopic observations of active region loops allow to determine many physical parameters of the coronal loops, such as the density, temperature, velocity of flows in loops, and the magnetic field. However, due to projection effects many of these parameters remain ambiguous. Three dimensional imaging in EUV by the STEREO spacecraft will help to resolve the projection ambiguities, and the observations could be used to setup 3D MHD models of active region loops to study the dynamics and stability of active regions. Here the results of 3D MHD models of active region loops are presented, and the progress towards more realistic 3D MHD models of active regions. In particular the effects of impulsive events on the excitation of active region loop oscillations, and the generation, propagations and reflection of EIT waves are shown. It is shown how 3D MHD models together with 3D EUV observations can be used as a diagnostic tool for active region loop physical parameters, and to advance the science of the sources of solar coronal activity.

Ofman, Leon↗

Collisional Histories of Comets and Trojan Asteroids: Insights from Forsterite and Enstatite Impact Studies

Impacts into forsterite and orthoenstatite at speeds typically encountered by comets demonstrate that shock imparted by collisions is detectable in the infrared signatures of their dust. The spectral signatures can be traced to physical alterations in their crystalline structures, as observed in TEM imaging and modeled using a dipole approximation. These results yield tantalizing insights into the collisional history of our solar system, as well as the history of individual comets and Trojan asteroids.

Lederer. S. M.↗

Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗

Modeling and Impact of Solar Energetic Particles in the Heliosphere and Geospace

Understanding the radiation environment due to solar energetic particles in the heliosphere and the Earth’s magnetosphere is a challenging and practically important task. Exposure to energetic particles often leads to malfunctions and unexpected failures of electronics onboard spacecraft. The most vulnerable are exploratory missions when outside of the Earth’s magnetosphere. Geomagnetic field deflects Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) moving through geospace though some of these particles propagate to LEO and have a high penetrating capability, thus producing significant radiation hazards for human spaceflight. Solar energetic particles also have an essential effect on the composition and dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere. Precipitating SEPs enhance the atmospheric concentration of NOx and HOx, which play a crucial role in the ozone balance in the middle atmosphere by destroying odd oxygen through catalytic reactions. Numerical modeling of the radiation environment due to SEPs in the inner heliosphere and geospace is a multifold problem. That includes simulating 1) solar wind dynamics and the interplanetary magnetic field, 2) global modeling of the Earth’s magnetosphere, and 3) modeling transport and acceleration of SEPs in the inner heliosphere and geospace. The lecture will outline the key physical processes that control the behavior of SEPs in the heliosphere and geospace, along with the contemporary numerical methods used for their modeling. It will primarily focus on describing the SEP population in geospace across different altitudes, ranging from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) through Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and Geostationary Orbit (GEO), up to the magnetopause, while considering the realistic geomagnetic field. Additionally, the lecture will cover how the SEP population in geospace varies in response to geomagnetic activity. This includes the temporal trapping of SEPs in geospace and the reduction of the rigidity cutoff during geomagnetic storms.

solar energetic particles↗

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Interplanetary disturbances in the solar wind produced by density, temperature, or velocity pulses at 0.08 AU

Time-dependent solutions of a one-fluid model of the interplanetary medium are investigated. This set of unsteady hydrodynamic equations has been written in conserved form in order to apply the Lax-Wendroff (1960) method for the solution of this problem. The initial disturbance is specified by a pulse at 0.08 AU. Physically, this pulse can be interpreted as having been caused by a solar flare, surge, or any other solar disturbance. The equilibrium condition is determined to be the steady solution of the governing equations and represents the quiet solar wind. Results are presented in terms of density, temperature, and velocity profiles of the interplanetary gas flow at heliocentric distances up to 6 AU at several times. Also, the trajectories of disturbances for various initial pulses are shown. Some June 1972 interplanetary observational data are compared with these theoretical calculations. On the basis of these results, the effects of solar disturbances on the interplanetary environment (such as the generation of large nonlinear wave trains in the shock wakes) can be inferred.

Wu, S. T.↗

New Frontiers in Geoengineering Research

In late summer 2019, the ninth annual workshop of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP; http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP) convened at Beijing Normal University (Fig. 1). This meeting was held in conjunction with a summer school in which 89 participants from five continents learned about climate modeling of solar geoengineering, also known as climate engineering or climate intervention. Solar geoengineering refers to “radiation management” methods, which involve deliberate manipulations of the radiation budget through potential technologies such as stratospheric sulfate aerosols, marine cloud brightening, and cirrus thinning, but not CO2 removal. The students at the summer school were mainly physical science majors, with many from China, but also included some social science people. The summer school was focused on impact modeling (e.g., on agriculture and the cryosphere) and consideration of extremes, rather than just looking at climate modeloutput. There were also lectures on governance and economics. This event signifies the first major international geoengineering meeting held in Asia.

Kravitz, Benjamin S.↗

Transition to Operations Support at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. This paper will focus on a status report on CCMC activities in support of model transition to operations at US space weather forecasting centers. In particular, an update will be given on past and present transition activities, on developments that address operational needs, and on future opportunities for transition-to-operations support.

Hesse, M.↗

Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Hesse M.↗

Thermomechanical and sequential stress performance of photovoltaic backsheets

Photovoltaic backsheet technology is utilized to protect the interior components of solar modules from environmental stress as well as provide electrical insulation to the module. The growing demand for solar energy and longer module service life requirements have brought backsheet performance into focus. Despite being a protective packaging material, many backsheets have exhibited failure in the field, limiting the performance and service life of entire modules. Most backsheets consist of multiple polymeric layers laminated together using adhesives. A new backsheet, with a high performance polyamide structure, has been developed as the solution to module failure. Primarily, it contains a unique polyamide-ionomer alloy targeted at improved weather resistance. In this study, several photovoltaic industry standard backsheets, and the novel polyamide compositions of multilayered backsheets fabricated from the coextrusion process, were examined using thermomechanical analysis (TMA). The coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) for entire backsheets and their constituent layers was used to model the thermomechanical behavior of various backsheet constructions. Subsequently, thermal cycling was performed in the TMA to examine the intrinsic thermal behavior of the backsheets. Thermal cycling in the TMA indicates the resilience and dimensional stability in the coextruded structures as opposed to the laminated structures. Lastly, results from a Module Accelerated Sequential Testing (MAST), are included to show the mechanical integrity of these backsheets after sequential exposure to stressors including damp heat, ultra-violet (UV) light radiation, and thermal cycling. The laminate backsheets deteriorated extensively after sequential exposure to these stressors, while the novel coextruded structures retained their physical properties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Mass loss from giant and supergiant stars

The 12 m telescope of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory has been used at the J = 2-1 transition of CO to increase the known list of giant and supergiant stars with observable circumstellar envelopes. The candidate objects were generally M-type giants and supergiants, chosen for their strong infrared luminosities. Of the 35 objects which were previously undetected, or only marginally detected, 10 were found to produce detectable CO emission. Physical parameters of the envelopes are derived by source modeling. Mass-loss rates vary from 10 to the -7th to 4 x 10 to the -5th solar mass/yr.

Wannier, P. G.↗

Imaging and spectroscopy of Comet P/Halley

The goals of this investigation are the analysis of a large set of high-resolution echelle/reticon spectra, and the reduction and analysis of a set of narrow-band-filtered charge coupled device (CCD) images of Comet Halley taken during the preperihelion period at Oak Ridge Observatory by Dr. R. E. McCrosky. The scientific objectives associated with these goals are the determination of the spatial distributions of several important radicals, atoms and ions in the coma. These include C2, CN, C3, H2O(+) and CO(+) from the image data. The analysis of the neutral species distribution with Monte Carlo models will aid in the understanding of their production and decay mechanisms as well as serve as an important indicator of the physical conditions in the inner coma. The spatial distributions of the ions will serve as a guide to constrain the complex model necessary for understanding the interaction of the solar wind and the cometary ions. Work during this past year has been devoted largely to the reduction of the standard star photometry for the CCD image data set, as well as the re-flat-fielding of a number of the comet images. We are pleased to report that despite a number of setbacks and the small effort devoted to this work (2 1/2 months for the PI and a generous share of completely unsupported time by Dr. McCrosky) that this portion of the work has been successfully completed. The goals for the upcoming final year of this project (under a new project number) are to complete the calibration of the CCD image data for inclusion in the IHW archive, to analyze a select portion of the neutral radical images with our Monte Carlo models, and to present the results of the 6300/region spectra as a guide to low-resolution spectral observers in order to yield the unambiguous separation of the contributions of cometary O(1D), airglow O(1D), and the numerous NH2 lines in that region of the spectrum.

Combi, Michael R.↗

Solar nebula origin for volatile gases in Halley's comet

The conditions for Comet Halley formation are presently considered in light of the application of physical and chemical processes in the solar nebula environments to the present data base on the composition of the comet's gases. Key molecular ratios are compared to solar nebula model predictions, and the nebular thermochemistry is quantified for a range of solar elemental compositions which correspond to varying water depletion states in the inner nebula. Assuming that inner nebula chemistry is catalyzed by reaction on grains, it is judged that the abundances of the volatile C species CH4, CO, and CO2 in Halley could have been supplied by the solar nebula.

Engel, Steffi↗

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

Numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series are presented. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical invariants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), given a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗

Flares on the sun and other stars

Research on solar and stellar flares is reviewed. The characteristics of flares in various spectral regions are described, and the physics of flares is discussed, including the two-ribbon flare model, coronal mass ejections, flare dynamics, white light flare production, and electron beams and proton beams in hard X-ray flares. The analysis of the flare energy budget, magnetic field measurements, multispectral stellar observations, plasma emissivity, conditions in flare loops, cooling curves, and proton beam signatures is addressed. Microflaring and coronal heating are examined.

Haisch, Bernhard↗