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At least 613 records · Page 34

Model Driven Deception for Defense of Operational Technology Environments

Due to the strong integration of real-world physics, OT deception platforms must operate differently than traditional IT deceptions. For instance, turning off a valve will be detected downstream by other sensors because the flow will reduce and stop. Additionally, controllers and applications leverage data from sensors to send control commands to each other. A believable deception must be integrated with the system to project the effects of events. An attack will likely attempt to control the physical process in a negative manner. To make the attacker believe they are achieving their objective, it must predict the effects of these actions, to a reasonable degree. Our approach to simulating a model to generate realistic decoy behavior is explored including description of two approaches: a physics model-based approach and a data driven approach. The performance of two machine learning techniques are investigated in their ability to learn a good enough model of the physics of the system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Energy partitioning in the Io plasma torus

The Io plasma torus, which emits substantial amounts of EUV radiation from multiply ionized oxygen and sulfur, represents one of the significant discoveries of the Voyager 1 mission. The present study is concerned with the effects of various physical processes on the density and energy partitioning of the Io plasma torus. For the ions the dominant effects, which have different relative importance in different parameter regimes, are electron impact ionization, charge exchange, electron-ion collisions, and confinement time loss. Attention is given to a physical model, the solution of the quasi-linear equations, the obtained results, and an interpretation of observations in relation to the model results.

Smith, R. A.↗

Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change

The use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available model-based data sets. Data from the Global Weather Experiment in 1979 were analyzed by two authorized level IIIb data centers in 1980 and in 1981. The analyses led to difference in data-sparse regions such as the tropics. Study areas which can be addressed by an internally-consistent long-term multivariate data set for the atmospheric circulation are considered, including mean climate, forcing for the ocean models, global hydrological cycle, atmospheric energetics, intraseasonal variability, land surface processes, and structure and variability of vertical velocity, divergence, and diabatic heating. It is concluded that the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.

Bengtsson, L.↗

Determining the composition of olivine on asteroidal surfaces

Olivine was remotely identified as a major component on many S- and A-type asteroids based on qualitative analyses of broad absorption features near 1.0 micron in their telescopic reflectance spectra. Laboratory studies showed that this diagnostic olivine absorption feature is composed of three individual absorption bands resulting from electronic transitions of Fe(+2) in distorted M1 and M2 sites. Both the overall absorption feature and each of the individual absorption bands are also known to vary systematically as a function of olivine composition. Thus, it should be possible to remotely determine the composition of olivine present on the surfaces of the various olivine-rich asteroids. However, extrapolation of laboratory studies to compositional interpretation of asteroid spectra is complicated by several factors: observational noise; lower spectral resolution; compositional heterogeneities (including the presence of other phases such as pyroxenes and/or metal); and the effects of alteration processes. In order to address such complex problems, a quantitative approach to spectral analysis, the modified Gaussian model (MGM) was developed by Sunshine et al., which deconvolves spectra into their constituent absorption bands. The MGM, a refinement of the Gaussian model, more accurately adheres to the physical processes involved in electronic transition absorptions. Under the MGM, each spectrum is modeled in log reflectance and energy as a sum of absorption bands superimposed onto a baseline or continuum. Each absorption band is described by three model parameters (center, width, and strength) which can be interpreted and used to infer composition. One of the strengths of the MGM is that it allows compositional information to be extracted directly from measured spectra and is therefore complementary to other approaches to modeling asteroid spectra which require the use of meteorites and/or terrestrial samples as spectral analogs. A quantitative understanding of the properties of olivine absorptions was established by using the MGM to analyze a laboratory suite of spectra spanning a full range of olivine compositions.

Sunshine, Jessica M.↗

Nonthermal radio emission from hot star winds: Its origin and physical implications

Nonthermal radio emission has been observed from some of the most luminous hot star winds. It is understood to be synchrotron radiation of the relativistic electrons in the winds. To understand how the electrons are accelerated to such high energies and to correctly explain the observed radio flux and spectra require an exhaustive investigation of all the relevant physical processes involved and possibly point to a complex wind structure. In this paper we discuss the logical path toward a comprehensive model of the nonthermal radio emission from hot star winds. Based on the available observational data and fundamental theoretical considerations, we found that the only physically viable and self-consistent scenario is: the nonthermal radio emission is synchrotron radiation of relativistic electrons the electrons are accelerated by shocks via the first-order Fermi mechanism the acceleration has to be in situ in the radio emitting region and the shocks formed at the base of the winds have to propagate to beyond the radio photosphere.

Chen, Wan↗

Tropospheric- Stratospheric Measurement Studies Summary

The two high altitude aircraft, ER-2 NASA #706 and 709 and the DC-8 NASA #717 are in active use in several programs of upper atmospheric research to study polar ozone changes, stratospheric-tropospheric exchange processes and atmospheric effects of aviation aircraft. The ER-2 has participated in seven major missions which mainly concentrated on vortex dynamics and the large losses of Ozone in the Polar regions (Ozone hole) observed in the spring. One mission verified the complex dynamical chemical and physical processes that occur during sunrise and sunset. Stratospheric Tracers of Atmospheric Transport (STRAT) obtained background measurements using the full ER-2 suite of instruments. Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) in 1997 assisted in understanding the mid-latitude and Arctic Ozone losses during the Northern Summer. The DC-8 with the Meteorological Measurement System (MMS) has participated in the Subsonic Aircraft: Cloud and Contrail Effects Special Study (SUCCESS), in 1996 and the Subsonic assessment Ozone and Nitrogen oxide experiment (SONEX) in 1997 missions. The MMS with its sophisticated software accurately measures ground speed and attitude, in-situ static and dynamic pressure total temperature, which are used to calculate the three dimensional wind fields, static pressure, temperature and turbulence values to meteorological accuracy. The meteorological data is not only of interest for its own sake in atmospheric dynamical processes such as mountain waves and flux measurements; but is also required by other ER-2 experiments that simultaneously measure water vapor, O3, aerosols, NO, HCl, CH4, N2O, ClO, BrO, CO2, NOy, HOx and temperature gradients. MMS products are extensively used to assist in the interpretation of their results in understanding the importance of convective effects relative to in-situ chemical changes, as may be noted by examining the list of references attached. The MMS consists of three subsystems: (a) aircraft instrumentation, inertial navigation system (INS), static and dynamic pressure taps, (b) additional dedicated instrumentation measuring angle of attack, yaw, total temperature, and a GPS which on the DC-8 measures position, velocity and attitude (c) an on board data, storage and computing acquisition system. This instrumentation and the associated software requires both an on-going laboratory ground calibration procedure for the total air temperature, static and total pressure inputs, verification of the INS dynamic response and also extensive air measurements and intercomparisons which ultimately verify and calibrate the complete system and its software. More than the usual accuracy is required because of the near cancellation occurring in the difference between the ground speed and true airspeed vectors used to give the wind vector. In the past year we have redesigned, recalibrated and used the MMS system on the NASA DC-8 that was previously used in the SUCCESS mission for the SONEX mission. Two papers were co-authored based on SUCCESS flights. Several reports and handouts were written for SONEX. Calibrations of the DC-8 pressure transducer temperature measuring thermistors was completed and an extensive analysis spanning several years of data files of the DC-8 Rosemount pressure transducer calibrations was done.

Browen, Stuart W.↗

Nonthermal Radio Emission from Hot Star Winds: Its Origin and Physical Implications

Nonthermal radio emission has been observed from some of the most luminous hot star winds. It is understood to be synchrotron radiation of the relativistic electrons in the winds. To understand how the electrons are accelerated to such high energies and to correctly explain the observed radio flux and spectra require an exhaustive investigation of all the relevant physical processes involved and possibly point to a complex wind structure. In this paper we discuss the logical path toward a comprehensive model of the nonthermal radio emission from hot star winds. Based on the available observational data and fundamental theoretical considerations, we found that the only physically viable and self-consistent scenario is: the nonthermal radio emission is synchrotron radiation of relativistic electrons (left right harpoon) the electrons are accelerated by shocks via the first-order Fermi mechanism (left right harpoon) the acceleration has to be in situ in the radio emitting region (left right harpoon) the shocks formed at the base of the winds have to propagate to beyond the radio photosphere.

Chen, Wan↗

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and A Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1 998 and 1999).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes controlling them.

Methane↗

Review of the Global Models Used Within Phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry-climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users.

CCMI↗

Baseline Hypothetical Facility for the Production of 131 I, 99 Mo, and 133 Xe from HALEU Fission Targets

The report describes the development of a hypothetical facility to produce the pharmaceutical radioisotope 131 I at an amount of 60 curies per week via the fission of a High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) target, along with the chemical and physical processes and equipment needed to separate the 131 I and co-produced 99 Mo and 133 Xe. The hypothetical design was carried out using a 10 MWt research reactor. The irradiation calculation determined that three HALEU targets with aluminum cladding can be used to produce 60 Ci/week of 131 I, 750 Ci/week of 99 Mo and 560 Ci/week of 133 Xe. The process selected for the baseline design uses caustic dissolution of the target material with ion exchange processes to separate and purify the iodine and molybdenum. The xenon is processed using a cryogenic carbon bed separation process. Target processing occurs in seven shielded hot cells with a total footprint of 16m 2 and waste management occurs in an eight hot cell with a 2.5 m 2 footprint. Waste generated from the processing of the three targets per week would generate less than 4 shielded drums of waste annually. These hot cells would need varying levels of shielding due to the amount of fission products being handled in the unit. Hot cell facilities also require support services including QA/QC, health physics, administrative staff, operator changing room, radiological buffer areas, and waste storage. The overall facility would require a footprint of 1050 m 2 with 20.25 m 2 of shielded hot cells.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

[Predicting Spectra of Accretion Disks Around Galactic Black Holes]

The purpose of this grant was to construct detailed atmosphere solutions in order to predict the spectra of accretion disks around Galactic black holes. Our plan of action was to take an existing disk atmosphere code (TLUSTY, created by Ivan Hubeny) and introduce those additional physical processes necessary to make it applicable to disks of this variety. These modifications include: treating Comptonization; introducing continuous opacity due to heavy elements; incorporating line opacity due to heavy elements; adopting a disk structure that reflects readjustments due to radiation pressure effects; and injecting heat via a physically-plausible vertical distribution.

Krolik, Julian H.↗

Methods of testing parameterizations: Vertical ocean mixing

The ocean's velocity field is characterized by an exceptional variety of scales. While the small-scale oceanic turbulence responsible for the vertical mixing in the ocean is of scales a few centimeters and smaller, the oceanic general circulation is characterized by horizontal scales of thousands of kilometers. In oceanic general circulation models that are typically run today, the vertical structure of the ocean is represented by a few tens of discrete grid points. Such models cannot explicitly model the small-scale mixing processes, and must, therefore, find ways to parameterize them in terms of the larger-scale fields. Finding a parameterization that is both reliable and plausible to use in ocean models is not a simple task. Vertical mixing in the ocean is the combined result of many complex processes, and, in fact, mixing is one of the less known and less understood aspects of the oceanic circulation. In present models of the oceanic circulation, the many complex processes responsible for vertical mixing are often parameterized in an oversimplified manner. Yet, finding an adequate parameterization of vertical ocean mixing is crucial to the successful application of ocean models to climate studies. The results of general circulation models for quantities that are of particular interest to climate studies, such as the meridional heat flux carried by the ocean, are quite sensitive to the strength of the vertical mixing. We try to examine the difficulties in choosing an appropriate vertical mixing parameterization, and the methods that are available for validating different parameterizations by comparing model results to oceanographic data. First, some of the physical processes responsible for vertically mixing the ocean are briefly mentioned, and some possible approaches to the parameterization of these processes in oceanographic general circulation models are described in the following section. We then discuss the role of the vertical mixing in the physics of the large-scale ocean circulation, and examine methods of validating mixing parameterizations using large-scale ocean models.

Tziperman, Eli↗

A spatial evaluation of Arctic sea ice and regional limitations in CMIP6 historical simulations

The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in a subset of models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics in comparison with satellite observations and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and the Regional Arctic System Model. Our study examines the historical representation of sea ice extent, volume, and thickness using spatial analysis metrics, such as the integrated ice-edge error, Brier score, and Spatial Probability Score. We find that the CMIP6 multi-model mean captures the mean annual cycle and 1979-2014 sea ice trends remarkably well. However, individual models experience a wide range of uncertainty in the spatial distribution of sea ice when compared against satellite measurements and reanalysis data. Our metrics expose common and individual regional model biases, which sea ice temporal analyses alone do not capture. We identify large ice edge and ice thickness errors in Arctic sub-regions, implying possible model specific limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. We postulate that many of them could be related to the oceanic forcing, especially in the marginal and shelf seas, where seasonal sea ice changes are not adequately simulated. We therefore conclude that an individual model’s ability to represent the observed/reanalysis spatial distribution still remains a challenge. We propose the spatial analysis metrics as useful tools to diagnose model limitations, narrow down possible processes affecting them, and guide future model improvements critical to the representation and projections of Arctic climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Thermal Response of a Packed Bed Thermal Energy Storage System upon Saturated Steam Injection Using Distributed Temperature Sensing

The effectiveness of a thermal energy storage (TES) system is typically characterized with the help of thermal stratification or temperature gradients along the direction of heat injection, which is typically the flow direction of heat transfer fluid. The steepness of temperature gradients are a direct indicator of the effectiveness or efficiency of the heat storage or dispatch process. The temperature gradient evolution along the packed bed of ceramic particles upon saturated steam injection is presented in this work. Distributed temperature sensing based on optical frequency domain reflectometry was deployed in a packed bed of ceramic particles to capture the thermal front evolution in the axial direction. The physical processes accompanying steam injection in packed beds are complex due to phase change, transitioning two-phase flow, and changes in condensate accumulation. Therefore, the variation of thermal response of the TES system for various steam injection flow rates was experimentally studied using a high-resolution distributed temperature sensing system in a chemically inert alumina particle-packed bed. Distinct zones of different heat transfer modes were observed during the steam injection experiments. A distinct conduction zone, evident from diffuse thermal fronts, was observed at low flow rates, and these thermal gradients became sharper as the flow rate increased. The diffuse thermal fronts in the heat storage media suggest a low exergy efficiency of the TES system, as energy losses started initiating before a significant fraction of the bed was saturated with steam.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Exploring the Utility of the Planned CYGNSS Mission for Investigating the Initiation and Development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

CYGNSS is a planned constellation consisting of multiple micro-satellites that leverage the Global Positioning System (GPS) to provide rapidly updated, high resolution (approx. 15-50 km, approx. 4 h) surface wind speeds (via bi-static scatterometry) over the tropical oceans in any weather condition, including heavy rainfall. The approach of the work to be presented at this conference is to utilize a limited-domain, cloud-system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting or WRF) and its attendant data assimilation scheme (Three-Dimensional Variational Assimilation or 3DVAR) to investigate the utility of the CYGNSS mission for helping characterize key convectiveto- mesoscale processes - such as surface evaporation, moisture advection and convergence, and upscale development of precipitation systems - that help drive the initiation and development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The proposed work will focus on three scientific objectives. Objective 1 is to produce a high-resolution surface wind dataset resolution (approx. 0.5 h, approx. 1-4 km) for multiple MJO onsets using WRF-assimilated winds and other data from the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign, which took place during October 2011 - March 2012. Objective 2 is to study the variability of surface winds during MJO onsets at temporal and spatial scales of finer resolution than future CYGNSS data. The goal is to understand how sub-CYGNSS-resolution processes will shape the observations made by the satellite constellation. Objective 3 is to ingest simulated CYGNSS data into the WRF model in order to perform observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). These will be used to test and quantify the potential beneficial effects provided by CYGNSS, particularly for characterizing the physical processes driving convective organization and upscale development during the initiation and development of the MJO. The proposed research is ideal for answering important questions about the CYGNSS mission, such as the representativeness of surface wind retrievals in the context of the complex airflow processes that occur during heavy precipitation, as well as the tradeoffs in retrieval accuracy that result from finer spatial resolution of the CYGNSS winds versus increased errors/noisiness in those data. Research plans and initial progress toward these objectives will be presented.

Lang, Timothy↗

Model of electron collecting plasma contactors

In laboratory experiments, plasma contactors are observed to collect ampere-level electron currents with low impedance. In order to extend the laboratory experience to the low-earth-orbit environment, a model of plasma contactors is being developed. Laboratory results are being used to support and validate the model development. The important physical processes observed in the laboratory are that the source plasma is separated from the background plasma by a double layer and that ionization of the expellant gas by the collected electrons creates the bulk of the ions that leave the source plasma. The model, which uses Poisson's equation with a physical charge density that includes the ion and electron components of both the source and the ambient plasmas, reproduces this phenomenon for typical experimental parameters. The calculations, in agreement with the laboratory results, show little convergence of the accelerated electrons. The angular momentum of the incoming electrons dramatically reduces the peak electron density. These electrons ionize enough gas to generate the source plasma. Calculations show that the increase in ionization rate with potential produces a steep rise in collected current with increasing potential as seen in the laboratory.

Davis, V. A.↗

Excavation of Regolith by Impinging Jets of Gas

There are many situations in nature and technology where particulate matter is excavated by a fluid jet. Such a process is often used to excavate soil or to dig wells. Air jets are often used to transport particulate matter such as powders in various industrial processes. Similar situations occur in nature, as when waterfalls scour holes in sand. In other cases, the excavation is unwanted such as when a rocket lands on the sandy or dusty surface of a planet or moon. Recent research into regolith excavation by gas jets has obtained new insights into the physical processes of that excavation, and these may lead to new advances in technology for more efficient fluid-jet excavation processes and for better control of the unwanted excavation effects of landing rockets. This talk will explain the new insights and point to future work supporting lunar exploration.

Metzger, Philip T.↗