Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “persistence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Metabolic multistability and hysteresis in a model aerobe-anaerobe microbiome community

Major changes in the microbiome are associated with health and disease. Some microbiome states persist despite seemingly unfavorable conditions, such as the proliferation of aerobe-anaerobe communities in oxygen-exposed environments in wound infections or small intestinal bacterial overgrowth. Mechanisms underlying transitions into and persistence of these states remain unclear. Using two microbial taxa relevant to the human microbiome, we combine genome-scale mathematical modeling, bioreactor experiments, transcriptomics, and dynamical systems theory to show that multistability and hysteresis (MSH) is a mechanism describing the shift from an aerobe-dominated state to a resilient, paradoxically persistent aerobe-anaerobe state. We examine the impact of changing oxygen and nutrient regimes and identify changes in metabolism and gene expression that lead to MSH and associated multi-stable states. In such systems, conceptual causation-correlation connections break and MSH must be used for analysis. Using MSH to analyze microbiome dynamics will improve our conceptual understanding of stability of microbiome states and transitions between states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Epstein-Barr Virus Epitope–Major Histocompatibility Complex Interaction Combined with Convergent Recombination Drives Selection of Diverse T Cell Receptor α and β Repertoires

Recognition modes of individual T cell receptors (TCRs) are well studied, but factors driving the selection of TCR repertoires from primary through persistent human virus infections are less well understood. Using deep sequencing, we demonstrate a high degree of diversity of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-specific clonotypes in acute infectious mononucleosis (AIM). Only 9% of unique clonotypes detected in AIM persisted into convalescence; the majority (91%) of unique clonotypes detected in AIM were not detected in convalescence and were seeming replaced by equally diverse “de novo” clonotypes. The persistent clonotypes had a greater probability of being generated than nonpersistent clonotypes due to convergence recombination of multiple nucleotide sequences to encode the same amino acid sequence, as well as the use of shorter complementarity-determining regions 3 (CDR3s) with fewer nucleotide additions (i.e., sequences closer to germ line). Moreover, the two most immunodominant HLA-A2-restricted EBV epitopes, BRLF1 109 and BMLF1 280 , show highly distinct antigen-specific public (i.e., shared between individuals) features. In fact, TCRα CDR3 motifs played a dominant role, while TCRβ played a minimal role, in the selection of TCR repertoire to an immunodominant EBV epitope, BRLF1. This contrasts with the majority of previously reported repertoires, which appear to be selected either on TCRβ CDR3 interactions with peptide/major histocompatibility complex (MHC) or in combination with TCRα CDR3. Understanding of how TCR-peptide-MHC complex interactions drive repertoire selection can be used to develop optimal strategies for vaccine design or generation of appropriate adoptive immunotherapies for viral infections in transplant settings or for cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heterogeneity and Recombination of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus during Multi-Strain Coinfection of Cattle

Superinfection of cattle persistently infected with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), with a heterologous FMDV strain has been shown to generate novel recombinant viruses. In this study, we investigated the pathogenesis events within specific tissues associated with FMDV coinfections in cattle subjected to either simultaneous or serial exposure to two distinct strains of FMDV. Both strains of FMDV (one each of serotypes O and A) were similarly localized to the nasopharyngeal mucosa during the early stages of infection. However, while no recombinant FMDV genomes were recovered from simultaneously coinfected cattle, interserotypic recombinants were isolated from nasopharyngeal tissue samples obtained at 48 h after heterologous superinfection of a persistently infected FMDV carrier. Additionally, analysis of FMDV genomes obtained from replicate nasopharyngeal tissue samples demonstrated that adjacent segments of the mucosa were sometimes infected by distinct viruses, demonstrating a multifocal and heterogeneous distribution of FMDV infection during primary and persistent phases of infection. Furthermore, this work indicates that superinfection of FMDV carriers may be an important source of emergent recombinant strains of FMDV in areas where multiple strains are co-circulating.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Self-Admitted Technical Debt in Scientific Software: Prioritization, Sentiment, and Propagation Across Artifacts

Self-admitted technical debt (SATD) impairs scientific software (SSW), yet its prioritization, sentiment, persistence, and propagation remains underexplored. Understanding how SSW developers express, and address SATD is crucial for improving SSW maintenance, and tooling. This study investigates how SATD types and artifacts in SSW are prioritized, how sentiment relates to urgency, SATD removal and resolution rates, and the extent to which SATD propagates across artifacts. We analyzed nine SSW repositories using a SATD classification model and a semantic embedding-based prioritization heuristic. SATD was examined across multiple artifacts, with sentiment assessed via a fine-tuned transformer. Propagation was traced, priority scores compared to static analysis, and removal and resolution rates quantified. SATD in comments, commits, and pull requests receive higher priority than SATD in issues, with negative sentiment amplifying urgency. Resolution and removal rates lag behind open-source software (OSS) averages. Most SATD remains confined to the originating artifact, but longer propagation chains are rare and correlate with higher priority, highlighting persistent and high impact debt. Prioritization is influenced by artifact type and sentiment, while low removal and resolution rates signal persistent debt. Cross-artifact propagation marks high priority, unresolved SATD, providing empirical guidance for targeted monitoring, review prioritization, and tool supported maintenance in SSW.

Melin, Eric [Boise State University]↗
DOE OSTI2020

MJO Teleconnections over the PNA Region in Climate Models. Part II: Impacts of the MJO and Basic State

In an assessment of 29 global climate models (GCMs), Part I of this study identified biases in boreal winter MJO teleconnections in anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height over the Pacific–North America (PNA) region that are common to many models: an eastward shift, a longer persistence, and a larger amplitude. In Part II, we explore the relationships of the teleconnection metrics developed in Part I with several existing and newly developed MJO and basic state (the mean subtropical westerly jet) metrics. The MJO and basic state diagnostics indicate that the MJO is generally weaker and less coherent and propagates faster in models compared to observations. The mean subtropical jet also exhibits notable biases such as too strong amplitude, excessive eastward extension, or southward shift. The following relationships are found to be robust among the models: 1) models with a faster MJO propagation tend to produce weaker teleconnections; 2) models with a less coherent eastward MJO propagation tend to simulate more persistent MJO teleconnections; 3) models with a stronger westerly jet produce stronger and eastward shifted MJO teleconnections; 4) models with an eastward extended jet produce an eastward shift in MJO teleconnections; and 5) models with a southward shifted jet produce stronger MJO teleconnections. The results are supported by linear baroclinic model experiments. Our results suggest that the larger amplitude and eastward shift biases in GCM MJO teleconnections can be attributed to the biases in the westerly jet, and that the longer persistence bias is likely due to the lack of coherent eastward MJO propagation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Blocking Simulations in GFDL GCMs for CMIP5 and CMIP6

Abstract The frequency of atmospheric blocking has been largely underestimated by general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Errors in the onset, persistence, barotropicity, geographical preference, seasonality, intensity, and moving speed of global blocking were diagnosed in 10 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCMs for recent CMIP5 and CMIP6 using a detection approach that combines zonal eddies and the reversal of zonal winds. The blocking frequency, similar at 500 and 250 hPa, is underestimated by 50% in the Atlantic–Europe region during December–February but is overestimated by 60% in the Pacific–North America region during that season and by 70% in the southwest Pacific during July–August. These blocking biases at 500 hPa were investigated in the five CMIP6 models that showed improvements over the CMIP5 versions. The Atlantic–Europe underestimate corresponds to lower instantaneous blocking rates, lower persistent blocking rates, and higher persistent stationary ridge rates; the number of blocks with a duration of 4–5 days is only 40%–65% of that in observations. In contrast, the overestimate consists of excessive blocks with a duration longer than 12 days in the Pacific–North America and up to twice as many 4–6-day events in the southwest Pacific. Simulated December–February blocks up to 12 days in the Pacific–North America region tend to be stronger and to move more slowly than those in observations. Diagnostic sensitivity tests indicated that the zonal mean and zonal eddy components of the mean state play a key role, as replacing each with that of observations substantially reduced many of the outstanding biases in these GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metaproteomics reveals insights into microbial structure, interactions, and dynamic regulation in defined communities as they respond to environmental disturbance

Abstract Background Microbe-microbe interactions between members of the plant rhizosphere are important but remain poorly understood. A more comprehensive understanding of the molecular mechanisms used by microbes to cooperate, compete, and persist has been challenging because of the complexity of natural ecosystems and the limited control over environmental factors. One strategy to address this challenge relies on studying complexity in a progressive manner, by first building a detailed understanding of relatively simple subsets of the community and then achieving high predictive power through combining different building blocks (e.g., hosts, community members) for different environments. Herein, we coupled this reductionist approach with high-resolution mass spectrometry-based metaproteomics to study molecular mechanisms driving community assembly, adaptation, and functionality for a defined community of ten taxonomically diverse bacterial members of Populus deltoides rhizosphere co-cultured either in a complex or defined medium. Results Metaproteomics showed this defined community assembled into distinct microbiomes based on growth media that eventually exhibit composition and functional stability over time. The community grown in two different media showed variation in composition, yet both were dominated by only a few microbial strains. Proteome-wide interrogation provided detailed insights into the functional behavior of each dominant member as they adjust to changing community compositions and environments. The emergence and persistence of select microbes in these communities were driven by specialization in strategies including motility, antibiotic production, altered metabolism, and dormancy. Protein-level interrogation identified post-translational modifications that provided additional insights into regulatory mechanisms influencing microbial adaptation in the changing environments. Conclusions This study provides high-resolution proteome-level insights into our understanding of microbe-microbe interactions and highlights specialized biological processes carried out by specific members of assembled microbiomes to compete and persist in changing environmental conditions. Emergent properties observed in these lower complexity communities can then be re-evaluated as more complex systems are studied and, when a particular property becomes less relevant, higher-order interactions can be identified.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Host population dynamics influence Leptospira spp. transmission patterns among Rattus norvegicus in Boston, Massachusetts, US

Leptospirosis (caused by pathogenic bacteria in the genus Leptospira ) is prevalent worldwide but more common in tropical and subtropical regions. Transmission can occur following direct exposure to infected urine from reservoir hosts, or a urine-contaminated environment, which then can serve as an infection source for additional rats and other mammals, including humans. The brown rat, Rattus norvegicus , is an important reservoir of Leptospira spp. in urban settings. We investigated the presence of Leptospira spp. among brown rats in Boston, Massachusetts and hypothesized that rat population dynamics in this urban setting influence the transportation, persistence, and diversity of Leptospira spp. We analyzed DNA from 328 rat kidney samples collected from 17 sites in Boston over a seven-year period (2016–2022); 59 rats representing 12 of 17 sites were positive for Leptospira spp. We used 21 neutral microsatellite loci to genotype 311 rats and utilized the resulting data to investigate genetic connectivity among sampling sites. We generated whole genome sequences for 28 Leptospira spp. isolates obtained from frozen and fresh tissue from some of the 59 positive rat kidneys. When isolates were not obtained, we attempted genomic DNA capture and enrichment, which yielded 14 additional Leptospira spp. genomes from rats. We also generated an enriched Leptospira spp. genome from a 2018 human case in Boston. We found evidence of high genetic structure among rat populations that is likely influenced by major roads and/or other dispersal barriers, resulting in distinct rat population groups within the city; at certain sites these groups persisted for multiple years. We identified multiple distinct phylogenetic clades of L. interrogans among rats that were tightly linked to distinct rat populations. This pattern suggests L. interrogans persists in local rat populations and its transportation is influenced by rat population dynamics. Finally, our genomic analyses of the Leptospira spp. detected in the 2018 human leptospirosis case in Boston suggests a link to rats as the source. These findings will be useful for guiding rat control and human leptospirosis mitigation efforts in this and other similar urban settings.

Stone, Nathan E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-physics Computational Investigation of Droplet Pathogen Transport Eminating from Synthetic Coughs and Breathing

In response to the global SARS-CoV-2 transmission pandemic, Sandia National Laboratories Rapid Lab-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) COVID-19 initiative has deployed a multi-physics, droplet-laden, turbulent low-Mach simulation tool to model pathogen-containing water droplets that emanate from synthetic human coughing and breathing. The low-Mach turbulent Eulerian/point-particle Lagrangian methodology directly couples mass, momentum, energy, and species to capture droplet evaporation physics that supports the ability to distinguish between droplets that deposit and those that persist in the environment. Additionally, the cough mechanism is modeled as a pulsed-spray with a prescribed log-normal droplet size distribution. Simulations demonstrate direct droplet deposition lengths in excess of three meters while the persistence of a droplet nuclei entrained within a buoyant plume is noted. Including the effect of protective barriers demonstrates effective mitigation of large-droplet transport. For coughs into a protective barrier, jet impingement and large-scale re-circulation can drive droplets vertically and back towards the subject while supporting persistence of droplet nuclei. Simulations in quiescent conditions demonstrate droplet preferential concentrations due to the coupling between vortex ring shedding and the subsequent advection of a series of three-dimensional rings that tilt and rise vertically due to a misalignment between the initial principle vortex trajectory and gravity. These resolved coughing simulations note vortex ring formation, roll-up and breakdown, while entraining droplet nuclei for large distances and time scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictability and empirical dynamics of fisheries time series in the North Pacific

Previous studies have documented a strong relationship between marine ecosystems and large-scale modes of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. In the central and western North Pacific along the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), the expression of these modes in SSH and SST is linked to the propagation of long oceanic Rossby waves, which extend the predictability of the climate system to ~3 years. Using a multivariate physical-biological linear inverse model (LIM) we explore the extent to which this physical predictability leads to multi-year prediction of dominant fishery indicators inferred from three datasets (i.e., estimated biomasses, landings, and catches). We find that despite the strong autocorrelation in the fish indicators, the LIM adds dynamical forecast skill beyond persistence up to 5-6 years. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the LIM forecast model, we find that two main factors are essential for extending the dynamical predictability of the fishery indicators beyond persistence. The first is the interaction of the fishery indicators with the SST/SSH of the North and tropical Pacific. The second is the empirical relationship among the fisheries time series. This latter component reflects stock-stock interactions as well as common technological and human socioeconomic factors that may influence multiple fisheries and are captured in the training of the LIM. These results suggest that empirical dynamical models and machine learning algorithms, such as the LIM, provide an alternative and promising approach for forecasting key ecological indicators beyond the skill of persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decay of enveloped SARS-CoV-2 and non-enveloped PMMoV RNA in raw sewage from university dormitories

Although severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA has been frequently detected in sewage from many university dormitories to inform public health decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic, a clear understanding of SARS-CoV-2 RNA persistence in site-specific raw sewage is still lacking. To investigate the SARS-CoV-2 RNA persistence, a field trial was conducted in the University of Tennessee dormitories raw sewage, similar to municipal wastewater. The decay of enveloped SARS-CoV-2 RNA and non-enveloped Pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA was investigated by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) in raw sewage at 4°C and 20°C. Temperature, followed by the concentration level of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, was the most significant factors that influenced the first-order decay rate constants (k) of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The mean k values of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were 0.094 day –1 at 4°C and 0.261 day –1 at 20°C. At high-, medium-, and low-concentration levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, the mean k values were 0.367, 0.169, and 0.091 day –1 , respectively. Furthermore, there was a statistical difference between the decay of enveloped SARS-CoV-2 and non-enveloped PMMoV RNA at different temperature conditions. The first decay rates for both temperatures were statistically comparable for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, which showed sensitivity to elevated temperatures but not for PMMoV RNA. This study provides evidence for the persistence of viral RNA in site-specific raw sewage at different temperature conditions and concentration levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Radiation-Induced Epithelial Cell Injury in Murine Three-Dimensional Esophageal Organoids

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a deadly consequence of radiation exposure to the esophagus. ESCC arises from esophageal epithelial cells that undergo malignant transformation and features a perturbed squamous cell differentiation program. Understanding the dose- and radiation quality-dependence of the esophageal epithelium response to radiation may provide insights into the ability of radiation to promote ESCC. We have explored factors that may play a role in esophageal epithelial radiosensitivity and their potential relationship to ESCC risk. We have utilized a murine three-dimensional (3D) organoid model that recapitulates the morphology and functions of the stratified squamous epithelium of the esophagus to study persistent dose- and radiation quality-dependent changes. Interestingly, although high-linear energy transfer (LET) Fe ion exposure induced a more intense and persistent alteration of squamous differentiation and 53BP1 DNA damage foci levels as compared to Cs, the MAPK/SAPK stress pathway signaling showed similar altered levels for most phospho-proteins with both radiation qualities. In addition, the lower dose of high-LET exposure also revealed nearly the same degree of morphological changes, even though only ~36% of the cells were predicted to be hit at the lower 0.1 Gy dose, suggesting that a bystander effect may be induced. Although p38 and ERK/MAPK revealed the highest levels following high-LET exposure, the findings reveal that even a low dose (0.1 Gy) of both radiation qualities can elicit a persistent stress signaling response that may critically impact the differentiation gradient of the esophageal epithelium, providing novel insights into the pathogenesis of radiation-induced esophageal injury and early stage esophageal carcinogenesis.

3D organoid culture↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ~8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diverse organic carbon dynamics captured by radiocarbon analysis of distinct compound classes in a grassland soil

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a large, dynamic reservoir composed of a complex mixture of plant- and microbe-derived compounds with a wide distribution of cycling timescales and mechanisms. The distinct residence times of individual carbon components within this reservoir depend on a combination of factors, including compound reactivity, mineral association, and climate conditions. To better constrain SOC dynamics, bulk radiocarbon measurements are commonly used to trace biosphere inputs into soils and to estimate timescales of SOC cycling. However, understanding the mechanisms driving the persistence of organic compounds in bulk soil requires analyses of SOC pools that can be linked to plant sources and microbial transformation processes. Here, we adapt approaches, previously developed for marine sediments, to isolate organic compound classes from soils for radiocarbon ( 14 C) analysis. We apply these methods to a soil profile from an annual grassland in Hopland, California (USA), to assess changes in SOC persistence with depth (down to 1 m). We measured the radiocarbon values of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC), total lipid extracts (TLEs), total hydrolyzable amino acids (AAs), and an acid-insoluble (AI) fraction from bulk and physically separated size fractions (< 2 mm, 2 mm–63 µm, and < 63 µm). Our results show that Δ 14 C values of bulk soil, size fractions, and extracted compound classes became more depleted with depth, and individual SOC components have distinct age–depth distributions that suggest distinguishable cycling rates. We found that AAs and TLEs cycle faster than the bulk soils and the AI fraction. The AI was the most 14 C-depleted fraction, indicating that it is the most chemically inert in this soil. Our approach enables the isolation and measurement of SOC fractions that separate functionally distinct SOC pools that can cycle relatively quickly (e.g., plant and microbial residues) from more passive or inert SOC pools (associated with minerals or petrogenic) from bulk soils and soil physical fractions. With the effort to move beyond SOC bulk analysis, we find that compound class 14 C analysis can improve our understanding of SOC cycling and disentangle the physical and chemical factors driving OC cycling rates and persistence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of a cloudy cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin in different versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model

The accurate forecast of persistent orographic cold-air pools in numerical weather prediction models is essential for the optimal integration of wind energy into the electrical grid during these events. Model development efforts during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) aimed to address the challenges related to this. We evaluated three versions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model with two different horizontal grid spacings against in situ and remote sensing observations to investigate how developments in physical parameterizations and numerical methods targeted during WFIP2 impacted the simulation of a persistent cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin. Differences amongst model versions were most apparent in simulated temperature and low-level cloud fields during the persistent phase of the cold-air pool. The model developments led to an enhanced low-level cloud cover, resulting in better agreement with the observations. This removed a diurnal cycle in the near-surface temperature bias at stations throughout the basin by reducing a cold bias during the night and a warm bias during the day. However, low-level clouds did not clear sufficiently during daytime in the newest model version, which leaves room for further model developments. The model developments also led to a better representation of the decay of the cold-air pool by slowing down its erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Orientations of central peaks in lunar craters - Implications for regional structural trends

Impact craters are dominant features on the lunar surface and all fresh craters with diameters greater than 35 km possess central peaks. Approximately half of these central peaks (54%) have either linear or arcuate geometry and display some preferential orientation. These orientations were measured for 200 lunar craters of Pre-Nectarian to Copernican age. A pervasive regional north-south trend is identified for central peak orientation, with secondary trends at + or - 20-30 deg from this axis. No evidence for regional east-west trends is found. These orientations are shown to persist in craters formed through the last 4 billion years of lunar history. A lack of coincidence between impact direction, as determined from ejecta asymmetries and peak orientation, argues for structural control by the target as a source of the linear peak morphology. This is supported by the regional and temporal persistence of preferred peak orientations. It is proposed that linear central peak orientations in lunar craters reflect a pervasive regional structural system which developed early in lunar history and has persisted through geologic time.

Hale, W.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Medium-range numerical forecasts of atmospheric angular momentum

Forecasts of zonal wind fields produced by the medium-range forecast (MRF) model of the National Meteorological Center are used to create predictions of the atmosphere's angular momentum at lead times of 1-10 days. Based on momentum forecasts archived for the period December 1985-November 1986, it is found that, on average, the MRF exhibits positive skill relative to persistence-based forecasts at all lead times. Over the entire one-year study period, the improvement over persistence exceeds 20 percent for 2-6 day forecasts and remains as large as 10 percent even for 10-day forecasts. On the other hand, skill scores for the MRF momentum predictions vary considerably from month to month, and for a sizable fraction of the study period, the MRF is less skillful than persistence.

Rosen, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A nonlinear optimization approach for disturbance rejection in flexible space structures

In this paper the design of an active control law for the rejection of persistent disturbances in large space structures is presented. The control system design approach is based on a deterministic model of the disturbances, with a model-based-compensator (MBC) structure, optimizing the magnitude of the disturbance that the structure can tolerate without violating certain predetermined constraints. In addition to closed-loop stability, the explicit treatment of state, control and control rate constraints, such as structural displacement, control actuator effort, and compensator time guarantees that the final design will exhibit desired performance characteristics. The technique is applied for the vibration damping of a simple two bay truss structure which is subjected to persistent disturbances, such as shuttle docking. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed control system can reject considerable persistent disturbances by utilizing most of the available control, while limiting the structural displacements to within desired tolerances. Further work, however, for incorporating additional design criteria, such as compensator robustness to be traded-off against performance specifications, is warranted.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗