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At least 613 records · Page 34

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Igiugig Site Visit Report

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Data analysis and modeling pipelines for controlled networked social science experiments

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors. The current practice for social analysts is to develop tailor-made computer programs and analytical scripts for experiments and modeling. This often leads to inefficiencies and duplication of effort. In this work, we propose a pipeline framework to take a significant step towards overcoming these challenges. Our contribution is to describe the design and implementation of a software system to automate many of the steps involved in analyzing social science experimental data, building models to capture the behavior of human subjects, and providing data to test hypotheses. The proposed pipeline framework consists of formal models, formal algorithms, and theoretical models as the basis for the design and implementation. We propose a formal data model, such that if an experiment can be described in terms of this model, then our pipeline software can be used to analyze data efficiently. The merits of the proposed pipeline framework is elaborated by several case studies of networked social science experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Project ARES 2: High-altitude battery-powered aircraft

A high-altitude, battery-powered, propeller-driven aircraft was designed and is being built by undergraduate students at California State University, Northridge. The aircraft will fly at an altitude of 104,000 ft at Mach 0.2 (190 ft/sec) and will be instrumented to record flight performance data, including low Reynolds number propeller and airfoil information. This project will demonstrate the feasibility of electric-powered flight in a low-density, low-temperature Earth environment that models the atmosphere of Mars. Data collected will be used to design a Mars aircraft to investigate the surface of Mars prior to manned missions. The instrumented payload and the mission profile for the high-altitude Earth flight were determined. Detailed aerodynamic and structural analyses were performed. Control, tracking, and data recording subsystems were developed. Materials were obtained and fabrication begun. The aircraft has a 32-ft wing span, a wing area of 105 sq ft, is 17.5 ft long, has a 12-in payload bay, and weighs 42 lb. It is composed primarily of lightweight materials, including Mylar, and composite materials, including graphite/epoxy and aramid core honeycomb sandwich. Low-altitude flight testing to check guidance and control systems and to calibrate data-gathering instruments will take place this summer, followed shortly by the 104,000-ft flight.

Source record↗

Performance and load data from Mod-0A and Mod-1 wind turbine generators

Experimental data, together with supporting analysis, are presented on the power conversion performance and blade loading of large, horizontal-axis wind turbines tested at electric utility sites in the U.S. Four turbine rotor configurations, from 28 to 61 meters in diameter, and data from five test sites are included. Performance data are presented in the form of graphs of power and system efficiency versus free-stream wind speed. Deviations from theoretical performance are analyzed statistically. Power conversion efficiency averaged 0.34 for all tests combined, compared with 0.31 predicted. Round blade tips appeared to improve performance significantly. Cyclic blade loads were normalized to develop load factors which can be used in the design of rotors with rigid hubs.

Spera, D. A.↗

Feedstock/Pretreatment Screening for Bioconversion of Sugars and Lignin Residues

This project will conduct biomass deconstruction (pretreatment and enzymatic saccharification) on two representative biomass feedstocks and four different pretreatment processes, including three high temperature steam/chemical pretreatments and one low temperature chemical/mechanical pretreatment. A third biomass feedstock will undergo biomass deconstruction with three different pretreatment processes, including two high temperature chemical pretreatments and one low temperature chemical/mechanical pretreatment. Several pretreatment conditions will be performed in a screening study using NLR pilot-scale pretreatment equipment to generate a range of pretreated biomass substrates. A selected number of these substrates will be chosen for enzymatic saccharification evaluation, based on standard compositional analysis of the pretreated substrates as a primary indicator of pretreatment efficacy. Resulting enzymatic hydrolysis slurries will be analyzed to determine overall biomass sugar yields. Additional compositional analysis will be performed to determine oligomeric sugar composition and structure, to analyze structural characteristics of solids fractions on native, pretreated, and enzymatically saccharified biomass residues for one of the biomass feedstocks, corn stover. The enzymatically saccharified materials will undergo 2,3-butanediol fermentation in a shaker flask as bench scale. Using relevant process performance data collected in these various conversion steps, technoeconomic analysis activities will be performed to compare the economic potential of the various biomass feedstock and pretreatment processes and to identify key economic drivers and sustainability metrics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Quasi-steady plasma accelerators

Results are reported from a continued study of MPD thrusters operating in the quasi-steady mode and using electrode vapor as the propellant. Testing methods were refined, and performance data is now available for a fairly wide range of thruster geometries. Performance was found to be strongly dependent on thruster geometry, with some designs showing approximately twice the efficiency obtained during the preceding contract period. The radial clearance between electrodes, the attachment point of the arc on the cathode, and the electrical resistance of the electrodes appear to be important design variables.

Ducati, A. C.↗

Trajectory analysis for solar electric propulsion stage /SEPS/ out-of-ecliptic mission

It is planned to use the SEPS as the upper stage of a transportation system capable of delivering either a separable payload spacecraft or an attached science package to a host of planetary targets including inner and outer planets, asteroids, and comets. It may also be employed in earth orbit to deliver and retrieve payloads in geosynchronous orbit. An investigation is conducted regarding the use of the SEPS for a relatively high energy out-of-ecliptic mission planned for 1980. Parametric performance data for the mission are considered along with trajectory characteristics, launch vehicle performance, and SEPS performance.

Dazzo, E. J.↗

Performance and Operational Characteristics of a Python Turbine-propeller Engine at Simulated Altitude Conditions / Carl L. Meyer and Lavern A. Johnson

The performance and operational characteristics of a Python turbine propeller engine have been investigated over a range of engine operating conditions at simulated altitudes from 5000 to 40,000 feet in the NACA Lewis altitude wind tunnel . For the performance phase of the investigation, a single cowl-inlet ram pressure ratio was maintained and independent control of engine speed and fuel flow was used to obtain a range of power at each engine speed. Engine performance data obtained at a given altitude could not be used to predict performance accurately at other altitudes by use of the standard air pressure and temperature generalizing factors. Specific fuel consumption based on shaft horsepower decreased as the shaft horsepower increased at a given engine speed. At a given altitude condition and turbine -inlet total temperature, there was an optimum engine speed at which maximum shaft horsepower was obtained. At a given engine speed and turbine-inlet total temperature, a greater portion of the total available energy was converted to propulsive power as the altitude increased. Windmilling starts were made at altitudes up to 40,000 feet; the minimum true airspeed required for successful windmilling starts increased as the altitude was raised. In general, the engine control prevented large overshoots or undershoots of engine speed during starts, accelerations, and decelerations.

Engines - Armstrong-Siddely Python Turbo-Propeller↗

Petabyte Class Storage at Jefferson Lab (CEBAF)

By 1997, the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility will collect over one Terabyte of raw information per day of Accelerator operation from three concurrently operating Experimental Halls. When post-processing is included, roughly 250 TB of raw and formatted experimental data will be generated each year. By the year 2000, a total of one Petabyte will be stored on-line. Critical to the experimental program at Jefferson Lab (JLab) is the networking and computational capability to collect, store, retrieve, and reconstruct data on this scale. The design criteria include support of a raw data stream of 10-12 MB/second from Experimental Hall B, which will operate the CEBAF (Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility) Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS). Keeping up with this data stream implies design strategies that provide storage guarantees during accelerator operation, minimize the number of times data is buffered allow seamless access to specific data sets for the researcher, synchronize data retrievals with the scheduling of postprocessing calculations on the data reconstruction CPU farms, as well as support the site capability to perform data reconstruction and reduction at the same overall rate at which new data is being collected. The current implementation employs state-of-the-art StorageTek Redwood tape drives and robotics library integrated with the Open Storage Manager (OSM) Hierarchical Storage Management software (Computer Associates, International), the use of Fibre Channel RAID disks dual-ported between Sun Microsystems SMP servers, and a network-based interface to a 10,000 SPECint92 data processing CPU farm. Issues of efficiency, scalability, and manageability will become critical to meet the year 2000 requirements for a Petabyte of near-line storage interfaced to over 30,000 SPECint92 of data processing power.

Chambers, Rita↗

Developments in Test Facility and Data Networking for the Altitude Test Stand at the John C. Stennis Space Center: A General Overview

NASA/SSC's Mission in Rocket Propulsion Testing Is to Acquire Test Performance Data for Verification, Validation and Qualification of Propulsion Systems Hardware: Accurate, Reliable, Comprehensive, and Timely. Data Acquisition in a Rocket Propulsion Test Environment Is Challenging: a) Severe Temporal Transient Dynamic Environments; b) Large Thermal Gradients; c) Vacuum to high pressure regimes. A-3 Test Stand Development is equally challenging with respect to accommodating vacuum environment, operation of a CSG system, and a large quantity of data system and control channels to determine proper engine performance as well as Test Stand operation. SSC is currently in the process of providing modernized DAS, Control Systems, Video, and network systems for the A-3 Test Stand to overcome these challenges.

Hebert, Phillip W.↗

Integrating the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) in CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer

The Center-Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Automation System (CTAS), developed at NASA Ames Research Center for assisting controllers in the management and control of air traffic in the extended terminal area, supports the modeling of more than four hundred aircraft types. However, 90% of them are supported indirectly by mapping them to one of a relatively few aircraft types for which CTAS has detailed drag and engine thrust models. On the other hand, the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA), developed and maintained by Eurocontrol, supports more than 300 aircraft types, about one third of which are directly supported, i.e. they have validated performance data. All these data were made available for CTAS by integrating BADA version 3.8 into CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer (TS). Several validation tools were developed and used to validate the integrated code and to evaluate the accuracy of trajectory predictions generated using CTAS "native" and BADA Aircraft Performance Models (APM) comparing them with radar track data. Results of these comparisons indicate that the two models have different strengths and weaknesses. The BADA APM can improve the accuracy of CTAS predictions at least for some aircraft types, especially small aircraft, and for some flight phases, especially climb.

Abramson, Michael↗

Electronic component reliability analysis by data reduction system

Mechanized data reduction system has been designed to take advantage of the data handling capacity of computers and to reduce voluminous and unrelated test and performance data to a format useful for the rapid analysis of electronic component reliability.

Dimm, R. M.↗

Equations for determining aircraft motions for accident data

Procedures for determining a comprehensive accident scenario from a limited data set are reported. The analysis techniques accept and process data from either an Air Traffic Control radar tracking system or a foil flight data recorder. Local meteorological information at the time of the accident and aircraft performance data are also utilized. Equations for the desired aircraft motions and forces are given in terms of elements of the measurement set and certain of their time derivatives. The principal assumption made is that aircraft side force and side-slip angle are negligible. An estimation procedure is outlined for use with each data source. For the foil case, a discussion of exploiting measurement redundancy is given. Since either formulation requires estimates of measurement time derivatives, an algorithm for least squares smoothing is provided.

Bach, R. E., Jr.↗

Flight test results for several light, canard-configured airplanes

Brief flight evaluations of two different, light, composite constructed, canard and winglet configured airplanes were performed to assess their handling qualities; one airplane was a single engine, pusher design and the other a twin engine, push-pull configuration. An emphasis was placed on the slow speed/high angle of attack region for both airplanes and on the engine-out regime for the twin. Mission suitability assessment included cockpit and control layout, ground and airborne handling qualities, and turbulence response. Very limited performance data was taken. Stall/spin tests and the effects of laminar flow loss on performance and handling qualities were assessed on an extended range, single engine pusher design.

Brown, Philip W.↗

Avoiding a maneuvering aircraft with TCAS

The present investigation was carried out in NASA's Man-Vehicle Systems Research Facility B 727 simulator because of the need for veridical aircraft response. Pilot performance was measured in testing TCAS II after an avoidance maneuver has been initiated. A proposed change to the system will cause the TCAS II to issue a subsequent maneuver. This maneuver may be an increase in climb or descent rate from 1500 to 2500 ft/min, or a change from a climb to a descent or a descent to a climb. Three questions were addressed: (1) can the pilot detect the change in the maneuver advisory, (2) can the pilot respond promptly and accurately to the new advisory, and (3) can the maneuver be performed in the normal operating envelope of the aircraft. The reaction times found in the study suggest that pilots are able to respond within the two seconds targeted by the TCAS logic. The pilot performance data were used to modify the TCAS II logic to reflect actual pilot performance. This will result in a safe and appropriate maneuver selection in the rare instance when the conflicting aircraft maneuvers, and by doing so invalidates the initial maneuver issued by the collision avoidance system.

Chappell, Sheryl L.↗

Mir Cooperative Solar Array

The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA), produced jointly by the United States and Russia, was deployed on the Mir Russian space station on May 25, 1996. The MCSA is a photovoltaic electrical power system that can generate up to 6 kW. The power from the MCSA is needed to extend Mir's lifetime and to support experiments conducted there by visiting U.S. astronauts. The MCSA was brought to Mir via the Space Shuttle Atlantis on the STS-74 mission, launched November 12, 1995. This cooperative venture combined the best technology of both countries: the United States provided high-efficiency, lightweight photovoltaic panel modules, whereas Russia provided the array structure and deployment mechanism. Technology developed in the Space Station Freedom Program, and now being used in the International Space Station, was used to develop MCSA's photovoltaic panel. Performance data obtained from MCSA operation on Mir will help engineers better understand the performance of the photovoltaic panel modules in orbit. This information will be used to more accurately predict the performance of the International Space Station solar arrays. Managed by the NASA Lewis Research Center for NASA's International Space Station Program Office in Houston, Texas, the MCSA Project was completed on time and under budget despite a very aggressive schedule.

Skor, Mike↗