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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Picometer-Precision Atomic Position Tracking through Electron Microscopy

The modern aberration-corrected scanning electron microscopes have successfully achieved direct visualization of atomic columns with sub-angstrom resolution. With this significant progress, advanced image quantification and analysis is still at its early stages. In this work, we present the complete pathway for the metrology of atomic resolution STEM images. This includes: 1) tips for acquiring high-quality STEM images; 2) denoising and drift-correction for enhancing measurement accuracy; 3) obtaining initial atom positions; 4) indexing the atoms based on unit cell vectors; 4) quantifying the atom column positions with either 2D-gaussian single peak fitting or 5) multi-peak fitting routines for slightly overlapping atomic columns; 6) quantification of lattice distortion/strain within the crystal structures or at the defects/interfaces where the lattice periodicity is disrupted, and 7) some common methods to visualize and present the analysis. Furthermore, a simple self-developed free MATLAB app (EASY-STEM) with a graphical user interface (GUI) will be introduced that can help with the analysis of STEM images without the need for writing dedicated analysis code or software. The advanced data analysis methods presented here can be applied for the local quantification of defect relaxations, local structural distortions, local phase transformations, and non-centrosymmetry in a wide range of materials.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Indirect Liquefaction, Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2020 State-of-Technology Cases

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) aims to develop and deploy technologies to transform renewable biomass resources into commercially viable, high-performance biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower through public and private partnerships (U.S. Department of Energy, 2016). BETO and its national laboratory teams conduct in-depth techno-economic assessments (TEA) of biomass feedstock supply and logistics and conversion technologies to produce biofuels. There are two general types of TEAs: A design case outlines a target case (future projection) for a particular biofuel pathway. It enables identification of data gaps and research and development needs and provides goals and benchmarks against which technology progress is assessed. A state of technology (SOT) analysis assesses progress within and across relevant technology areas based on actual results at current experimental scales relative to technical targets and cost goals from design cases, and includes technical, economic, and environmental criteria as available. In addition to developing a TEA for a pathway of interest, BETO also performs a supply chain sustainability analysis (SCSA). The SCSA takes the life-cycle analysis approach that BETO has been supporting for about 20 years. It enables BETO to identify energy consumption, environmental, and sustainability issues that may be associated with biofuel production. Approaches to mitigate these issues can then be developed. Additionally, the SCSA allows for comparison of energy and environmental impacts across biofuel pathways in BETO’s research and development portfolio. This technical report describes the SCSAs for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies in the 2020 SOTs: (1) renewable high octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL) of woody lignocellulosic biomass (note that the IDL pathway in this SCSA represents the syngas conversion design [Harris et al. 2021]); (2) renewable gasoline (RG) and diesel (RD) blendstocks via ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis of woody lignocellulosic biomass [Abhijit et al. 2021]; (3) RD via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass (Davis et al. 2021; Lin et al. 2021); (5) renewable diesel via HTL of a blend of algae (Davis and Klein, 2021) and woody biomass (Hartley et al. 2020); and (6) renewable diesel via combined algae processing (CAP) (Wiatrowski and Davis, 2021). This technical report focuses on the environmental performance of these six biofuel production pathways in their 2020 SOT cases. The results of these renewable hydrocarbon fuel pathways in these SCSA analyses update those for the respective 2019 SOT cases (Cai et al. 2020). They also provide an opportunity to examine the impact of technology improvements in both biomass feedstock production and biofuel production that have been achieved in 2020 SOTs on the sustainability performance of these renewable transportation fuels. The SCSA results also reflect updates to Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET®) model, which was released in October 2020 (Wang et al. 2020). These GREET updates include the production of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum-based fuels that can influence biofuels’ supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) emissions, water consumption, and air pollutant emissions. GHG emissions, water consumption, and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions are the main sustainability metrics assessed in this analysis. In this analysis, we define water consumption as the amount of water withdrawn from a freshwater source that is not returned (or returnable) to a freshwater source at the same level of quality. Life-cycle fossil energy consumption and net energy balance, which is the life-cycle fossil energy consumption deducted from the renewable biofuel energy produced, are also assessed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pumped-Storage Hydropower using Abandoned Underground Mines (PSH-AUM) as an Innovative Energy Storage Technology for Fossil-Integrated Systems

Pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) provides around 95% of all utility-scale energy storage in the U.S. and globally. Additional deployment of PSH is hampered by excessively long permitting and commissioning requirements and is constrained to locations for which natural topography provides suitable elevation relief between the upper and lower reservoirs (the ΔH challenge). The purpose of this research was to evaluate Pumped-Storage Hydropower using Abandoned Underground Mines (PSH-AUM) as a means to solve the ΔH challenge and initiate the commercialization pathway for a promising new energy storage technology. Four primary tasks were conducted: Screening and ranking of candidate sites for project development; multiphase reservoir modeling to evaluate mine performance; techno-economic analysis and preliminary designs for PSH-AUM systems integrated with fossil-fuel power units; and stakeholder engagement to identify pathways to commercialization of this new technology. Key results were achieved in each of the four primary tasks. Candidate site screening determined that nearly 10,000 underground mines were spatially locatable, of which more than 100 sites appear suitable for integration with existing fossil power plants that are expected to remain in longer-term operation. Mine reservoir models were developed using PNNL’s STOMP simulator and parameterized using candidate site data to evaluate interactions with the surrounding groundwater system and confirm the potential for some mines to accommodate inflows and outflows on the order of 100 m3/s over 8-hour durations (1.6 GWh system) without excessive aqueous pressures. Techno-economic analysis resulted in a project cost optimization scheme to identify key sensitivities and the development of preliminary designs that can minimize overall costs of deployment. Finally, stakeholder engagement with industry, state government, and local economic development leaders confirmed the viability of PSH-AUM as a promising new technology. Our Phase I project results suggest that PSH-AUM technology has a domestic market potential on the order of $100+ Billion with ample space for technology development to commercialization within the next decade.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genome-scale modelling of the primary-specialized metabolism interface

Environmental challenges and development require plants to reallocate resources between primary and specialized metabolites to survive. Genome-scale metabolic models, which map carbon flux through metabolic pathways, are a valuable tool in the study of tradeoffs that arise at this interface. Due to annotation gaps, models that characterize all the enzymatic steps in individual specialized pathways and their linkages to each other and to central carbon metabolism are difficult to construct. Recent studies have successfully curated subsystems of specialized metabolism and characterized the interfaces where flux is diverted to the precursors of glucosinolates, terpenes, and anthocyanins. Although advances in metabolite profiling can help to constrain models at this interface, quantitative analysis remains challenging because of the different timescales on which specialized metabolites from constitutive and reactive pathways accumulate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-scale prediction of outer-membrane multiheme cytochromes uncovers hidden diversity of electroactive bacteria and underlying pathways

Multi-heme cytochromes (MHCs), together with accessory proteins like porins and periplasmic cytochromes, enable microbes to transport electrons between the cytoplasmic membrane and extracellular substrates (e.g., minerals, electrodes, other cells). Extracellular electron transfer (EET) has been described in multiple systems; yet, the broad phylogenetic and mechanistic diversity of these pathways is less clear. One commonality in EET-capable systems is the involvement of MHCs, in the form of porin-cytochrome complexes, pili-like cytochrome polymers, and lipid-anchored extracellular cytochromes. Here, we put forth MHCscan—a software tool for identifying MHCs and identifying potential EET capability. Using MHCscan, we scanned ~60,000 bacterial and 2,000 archaeal assemblies, and identify a diversity of MHCs, many of which represent enzymes with no known function, and many found within organisms not previously known to be electroactive. In total, our scan identified ~1,400 unique enzymes, each encoding more than 10 heme-binding motifs. In our analysis, we also find evidence for modularity and flexibility in MHC-dependent EET pathways, and suggest that MHCs may be far more common than previously recognized, with many facets yet to be discovered. We present MHCscan as a lightweight and user-friendly software tool that is freely available: https://github.com/Arkadiy-Garber/MHCscan.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

2.3.4.501 - Synthesis and Analysis of Performance-Advantaged Bioproducts

This project focuses on the synthesis and analysis of performance-advantaged bioproducts (PABPs). We have established collaborations with other BETO-funded projects and academic and industrial collaborators to source new molecules that have promising manufacturing pathways and that could be serve as performance-advantaged biochemicals or biopolymers. We conduct synthesis and characterization of biochemicals and biopolymers alongside techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment to estimate their cost and environmental impacts relative to incumbent materials. As part of the project, Profs. Linda Broadbelt and Brent Shanks are developing computational pathway prediction tools to identify optimal production pathways for bio-based compounds via biological and chemo-catalytic transformations. When coupled to the polyID tool from the Inverse Design project, these tools will ultimately enable a narrowing of design space for PABPs. From FY21-FY23, we described a framework for benchmarking PAPBs, estimated the energy and GHG emissions for commodity organic chemicals, developed performance-advantaged nylons and polyesters from beta-ketoadipic acid, and produced lignin-based plasticizers. We have shown that aromatic amines can be used in performance thermosets and that polyhydroxyalkanoates with crosslinked side chains can exhibit rubber-like properties, along with repair and degradability. We are working actively with industry partners on scale-up and validation of multiple PABPs.

BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I Initiative: Description and Highlight Results from the Initial Analysis

Here we describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of twenty-first-century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over nine CORDEX domains at ~25-km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, and energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I dataset, which will be incrementally augmented with new simulations, is intended to be a public resource available to the scientific and end-user communities for application to process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, and climate service activities. The future of the CORDEX-CORE initiative is also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of Commercial, State-of-the-Art, Fossil-Based Ammonia Production

This NETL report provides a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of current, state-of-the-art, fossil-based ammonia production processes, explicitly utilizing natural gas as the feedstock. The study thoroughly investigates three distinct configurations: conventional Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) without carbon capture, SMR integrated with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and Autothermal Reforming (ATR) also with CCS. The analysis incorporates detailed equipment cost accounting as part of its methodology. The primary objective is to meticulously evaluate the cost and performance of these established and emerging technological pathways, considering factors such as capital expenditures, operational costs, and energy consumption. While the report acknowledges and quantifies environmental impacts, its central focus remains on the economic and technical feasibility of each process design employing these current technologies. The analysis provides a direct comparison of the Levelized Cost of Ammonia (LCOA) for each pathway, revealing how the integration of CCS within these state-of-the-art systems impacts the overall production cost. The ATR+CCS configuration, representing an advanced approach, emerged with a slightly more favorable LCOA compared to SMR+CCS. This benefit was attributed to its inherent process efficiencies, high carbon capture rates, and economy of scale advantages. The report details the energy consumption profiles for each case, including metrics like net energy consumption and thermal efficiency, which are critical for assessing the performance of these contemporary industrial processes. Sensitivity analyses further explore how variables such as natural gas price, capital costs, and capacity factors influence the LCOA across all scenarios, offering critical insights into the economic robustness and scalability of these current ammonia production technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xcel Energy’s electric carbon emissions reduction trajectories in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C warming pathways

In 2015 the Paris Agreement established the goals of limiting global average warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to below 1.5°C. A large and growing number of scenarios have been developed by the climate research community that explore global energy and emissions pathways that would achieve those goals. We draw on the most recent database of such scenarios to update a previous analysis of Xcel Energy’s emissions reduction goals in light of evolving climate science. We assess the outlook for the role of the US electricity sector in current economy-wide and global emissions pathways and compare it to Xcel Energy’s near-term resource plans to 2030. We find that global scenarios that achieve the 1.5°C goal span a range of US/North America electricity sector emissions reductions by 2030 of about 65-85%. Xcel Energy’s emissions reductions to date have exceeded those of the US electricity sector as a whole, and its projected trajectory to 2030 under current approved resource plans falls within this range. Scenarios achieving the 2°C goal have a wider range of reductions (about 40-85%). In scenarios achieving either goal, electricity sector emissions fall faster than economy-wide emissions, a robust feature of mitigation scenarios, which typically rely on low carbon electricity to achieve climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Titanium nitride prepared by the urea-glass synthesis gives an active electrocatalyst for the oxygen reduction reaction

Rock-salt-structured titanium nitride (TiN) has emerged as a leading earth-abundant electrocatalyst for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR). We compare TiN prepared in three ways starting from urea: the urea–glass method, by a direct reaction between urea and titanium(IV) chloride, and through a discrete monomeric complex. In the urea-glass route, a new-found [Ti 4 (µ-O) 6 (OC(NH 2 ) 2 ) 12 ] 4+ oxo-bridged titanium–urea precursor can be synthesized in a single-pot reaction at room temperature starting from titanium(IV) chloride, urea, and ethanol with a urea-to-titanium ratio of 6. Subsequent annealing of the polymeric gel that results at 750 °C in an N 2 atmosphere yields phase-pure, TiN particles on the 100 µm size scale. TiN can be deposited as an ink with PiperlON®anion exchange dispersion onto a glassy carbon rotating disk electrode (RDE), and of the three synthesis methods, the urea-glass method gives the most active ORR catalyst. The onset potential for ORR activity is −131 mV vs. Hg/HgO, and Koutecký–Levich analysis of linear-sweep voltammetry recorded at varying rotation rates supports a two-electron reduction pathway to H 2 O 2 , with a rate constant of 0.0172 cm s −1 . The higher activity is ascribed to a more oxygen-rich surface—boh defect sites and active oxygen species—afforeded by the oxo-bridged precursor, corrorborated by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis.

Xie, Wanrui [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ALD with Alternative Coreactants: Which Work, Which Do Not, and Why

In this paper, we present a combined experimental and theoretical study that systematically evaluates a series of alcohols (i.e., primary, secondary, and tertiary) as coreactants for trimethylaluminum (TMA)-based atomic layer deposition (ALD) of Al 2 O 3 . We employed in situ quartz crystal microbalance techniques and ex situ X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy to probe growth across a range of temperatures from T = 120 to 285 °C. Dispersion-inclusive hybrid density functional theory was employed to identify potential reaction pathways and compute corresponding Gibbs free-energy barriers and rate coefficients. Experimentally on an Al 2 O 3 surface, sustained thin-film growth, where the rate is constant over many cycles, was only observed with tertiary alcohols (tert-butanol and 2-methyl-2-butanol) at elevated temperatures (e.g., T = 285 °C); for tert-butanol specifically, sustained growth also occurred at T = 240 °C, with no sustained growth at or below T = 210 °C. Growth using primary and secondary alcohols decayed to a negligible value after only 2–3 cycles on an Al 2 O 3 surface at all tested temperatures. Intentional trace additions of H 2 O to anhydrous alcohols restored sustained growth but at reduced deposition rates relative to pure H 2 O. Theoretical analysis supports a bimolecular alkoxy β-H elimination mechanism as the primary reaction pathway: initiated by the formation of a bound alkoxy species, the subsequent β-H elimination step is rate-determining, with a barrier that systematically decreases as the degree of the alcohol coreactant is increased from primary to secondary to tertiary. Computed rate coefficients (k) also indicate a strong temperature dependence (with k increasing by ∼4–5 orders of magnitude from T = 120 to 285 °C) and are consistent with the experimental observation that only tertiary alcohols lead to steady thin-film growth at elevated temperatures. This integrated approach establishes why only certain alcohols can sustain Al 2 O 3 ALD and delivers a predictive framework for identifying effective alcohol coreactants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanistic Pathways for the Molecular Step Growth of Calcium Oxalate Monohydrate Crystal Revealed by In Situ Liquid-Phase Atomic Force Microscopy

Calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM) crystal is the most common crystalline component of human kidney stones. The molecular-scale inhibitory mechanisms of COM crystal growth by urinary biomolecules such as citrate and osteopontin adsorbed onto the crystal surface are now well understood. However, the pathways by which dissolved calcium and oxalate ions are incorporated into the molecular step of the COM crystal surface, leading to COM crystal growth—a prerequisite to be elucidated for developing effective therapeutics to inhibit COM stones—remain unknown. Here, using in situ liquid-phase atomic microscopy along with a step kinetic model, we reveal the pathways of the calcium and oxalate ions into the COM molecular step via the growth speed analysis of the molecular steps with respect to their step width at the nanoscale. Our results show that, primarily, the ions are adsorbed onto the terrace of the crystal surface from the solution—the rate-controlling stage for the molecular step growth, i.e., COM crystal growth—and then diffuse over it and are eventually incorporated into the steps. This primary pathway of the ions is unaffected by the model peptide D-Asp6 adsorbed on the COM crystal surface, suggesting that urinary biomolecules will not alter the pathway. These new findings rendering an essential understanding of the fundamental growth mechanism of COM crystal at the nanoscale provide crucial insights beneficial to the development of effective therapeutics for COM kidney stones.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis of plants: recent progress and future opportunities

Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is a valuable tool for quantifying cellular phenotypes and to guide plant metabolic engineering. By introducing stable isotopic tracers and employing mathematical models, MFA can quantify the rates of metabolic reactions through biochemical pathways. Recent applications of isotopically nonstationary MFA (INST–MFA) to plants have elucidated nonintuitive metabolism in leaves under optimal and stress conditions, described coupled fluxes for fast–growing algae, and produced a synergistic multi–organ flux map that is a first in MFA for any biological system. Finally, these insights could not be elucidated through other approaches and show the potential of INST–MFA to correct an oversimplified understanding of plant metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optical spectroscopy and modeling of uranium gas-phase oxidation: Progress and perspectives

We report that studies related to U gas-phase oxidation through plasma- and thermo-chemistry are important for many fields, including environmental monitoring, forensic analysis, debris analysis in a weapon detonation event, and nucleation physics. Recently, significant efforts have been made to understand the chemical pathways involved in the progression from U atoms to diatoms (UO) and polyatomic molecules (UxOy), employing optical spectroscopy tools and computational modeling. In many studies, laser ablation of U or a U-containing flow reactor are used as a highly resource-efficient, repeatable, tunable, and lab-scale testbed for studying gas-phase oxidation in U plasmas. The spectroscopic analysis of high-temperature gas-phase oxidation of U is challenging due to the congested U spectra, resolution limitations of instrumentation, and the numerous chemical reaction pathways possible. This article focuses on the current understanding and challenges related to studying U plasma chemistry, specifically U gas-phase oxidation and molecular formation, via optical spectroscopy of plasmas and associated computational and spectral modeling. The physical and chemical processes involved in the evolution from U atoms to U oxide molecules to nanoparticles and agglomerates (i.e., debris) are discussed in the context of optical spectroscopic studies. The article concludes by highlighting opportunities for future research efforts based on existing knowledge published in the literature.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Driving force and pathway in polyelectrolyte complex coacervation

There is notable discrepancy between experiments and coarse-grained model studies regarding the thermodynamic driving force in polyelectrolyte complex coacervation: experiments find the free energy change to be dominated by entropy, while simulations using coarse-grained models with implicit solvent usually report a large, even dominant energetic contribution in systems with weak to intermediate electrostatic strength. Here, using coarse-grained, implicit-solvent molecular dynamics simulation combined with thermodynamic analysis, we study the potential of mean force (PMF) in the two key stages on the coacervation pathway for symmetric polyelectrolyte mixtures: polycation–polyanion complexation and polyion pair–pair condensation. We show that the temperature dependence in the dielectric constant of water gives rise to a substantial entropic contribution in the electrostatic interaction. By accounting for this electrostatic entropy, which is due to solvent reorganization, we find that under common conditions (monovalent ions, room temperature) for aqueous systems, both stages are strongly entropy-driven with negligible or even unfavorable energetic contributions, consistent with experimental results. Furthermore, for weak to intermediate electrostatic strengths, this electrostatic entropy, rather than the counterion-release entropy, is the primary entropy contribution. From the calculated PMF, we find that the supernatant phase consists predominantly of polyion pairs with vanishingly small concentration of bare polyelectrolytes, and we provide an estimate of the spinodal of the supernatant phase. Finally, we show that prior to contact, two neutral polyion pairs weakly attract each other by mutually induced polarization, providing the initial driving force for the fusion of the pairs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing Advanced Statistics to Determine Anomalistic Conditions in Pebble-Bed Reactors

Pebble-bed reactors (PBRs) utilize hundreds of thousands of fuel pebbles, which continuously circulate through the core, in lieu of traditional fuel assemblies to generate fissions and produce power. The use of unmarked fuel pebbles presents a challenge for international safeguards verification that nuclear material is not being diverted. To ensure pebble diversion is not taking place, new methods for accounting for and monitoring the pebbles should be examined to determine an appropriate methodology for performing bulk accountancy with pebbles. Here, this work examines the use of statistical methods for determining if the reactor is within a declared range of operation by examining the statistical distribution of pebble burnup as they are discharged from the core. Using this methodology, we created a model that detects diversion over 95% of the time, over multiple diversion pathways, if the reactor core maintains a constant power density during the diversion process and only falsely labels a diversion case nominal 2% of the time. For a diversion scenario where the reactor is maintained at a constant power, the statistical analysis can correctly identify if diversion is occurring over 80% of the time; however, nearly 20% of specific diversion pathways are mislabeled nominal. These results provide a basis and framework for exploring the further use of statistical methods to determine where these methods could be most useful and where additional methods, such as machine learning, could be used to capture if diversion is occurring in pebble-bed reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗