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DOE OSTI2021

Drop Size Distribution Variability in Central Argentina during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

The Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Meso-scale/micro-scale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions Experiment Proposal (CACTI) field campaigns provided an unprecedented thirteen-disdrometer dataset in Central Argentina during the Intensive (IOP, 15 November to 15 December 2018) and Extended (EOP, 15 October 2018 to 30 April 2019) Observational Periods. The drop size distribution (DSD) parameters and their variability were analyzed across the region of interest, which was divided into three subregions characterized by the differing proximity to the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), in order to assess the impact of complex terrain on the DSD parameters. A rigorous quality control of the data was first performed. The frequency distributions of DSD-derived parameters were analyzed, including the normalized intercept parameter (logN w ), the mean volume diameter (D 0 ), the mean mass diameter (D m ), the shape parameter (μ), the liquid water content (LWC), and the rain rate (R). The region closest to the SDC presented higher values of logN w , lower D 0 , and higher μ, while the opposite occurred in the farthest region, i.e., the concentration of small drops decreased while the concentration of bigger drops increased with the distance to the east of the SDC. Furthermore, the region closest to the SDC showed a bimodal distribution of D 0 : the lower values of D 0 were associated with higher values of logN w and were found more frequently during the afternoon, while the higher D 0 were associated with lower logN w and occurred more frequently during the night. The data were analyzed in comparison to the statistical analysis of Dolan et al. 2018 and sorted according to the classification proposed in the cited study. The logN w -D 0 and LWC-D 0 two-dimensional distributions allowed further discussion around the applicability of other mid-latitude and global precipitation classification schemes (startiform/convection) in the region of interest. Finally, three precipitation case studies were analyzed with supporting polarimetric radar data in order to relate the DSD characteristics to the precipitation type and the microphysical processes involved in each case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Emergence of many-body quantum chaos via spontaneous breaking of unitarity

It is suggested that many-body quantum chaos appears as the spontaneous symmetry breaking of unitarity in interacting quantum many-body systems. It has been shown that many-body level statistics, probed by the spectral form factor (SFF) defined as K(η,t)=$\langle$|Tr exp(-ηH+itH)| 2 $\rangle$, is dominated by a diffuson-type mode in a field theory analysis. The key finding of this Letter is that the “unitary” η = 0 case is different from the η → 0 ± limit, with the latter leading to a finite mass of these modes due to interactions. This mass suppresses a rapid exponential ramp in the SFF, which is responsible for the fast emergence of Poisson statistics in the noninteracting case, and gives rise to a nontrivial random matrix structure of many-body levels. The interaction-induced mass in the SFF shares similarities with the dephasing rate in the theory of weak localization and the Lyapunov exponent of the out-of-time-ordered correlators.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structure Factors of Neutron Matter at Finite Temperature

Here, we compute continuum and infinite volume limit extrapolations of the structure factors of neutron matter at finite temperature and density. Using a lattice formulation of leading-order pionless effective field theory, we compute the momentum dependence of the structure factors at finite temperature and at densities beyond the reach of the virial expansion. The Tan contact parameter is computed and the result agrees with the high momentum tail of the vector structure factor. All errors, statistical and systematic, are controlled for. This calculation is a first step towards a model-independent understanding of the linear response of neutron matter at finite temperature.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemomechanics in alloy phase stability

We describe a first-principles statistical mechanics method to calculate the free energies of crystalline alloys that depend on temperature, composition, and strain. The approach relies on an extension of the alloy cluster expansion to include an explicit dependence on homogeneous strain in addition to site occupation variables that track the degree of chemical ordering. The method is applied to the Si-Ge binary alloy and is used to calculate free energies that describe phase stability under arbitrary epitaxial constraints. We find that while the incoherent phase diagram (in which coexisting phases are not affected by coherency constraints) hosts a miscibility gap, coherent phase equilibrium predicts ordering and negative enthalpies of mixing. Instead of chemical instability, the chemomechanical free energy exhibits instabilities along directions that couple the composition of the alloy with a volumetric strain order parameter. Furthermore, this has fundamental implications for phase field models of spinodal decomposition as it indicates the importance of gradient energy coefficients that couple gradients in composition with gradients in strain.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the electron Yukawa coupling via resonant s-channel Higgs production at FCC-ee

The Future Circular Collider (FCC-ee) offers the unique opportunity of studying the Higgs Yukawa coupling to the electron, $y_\mathrm {e}$ , via resonant s -channel production, $\mathrm {e^+e^-}\rightarrow \mathrm {H}$ , in a dedicated run at $\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}$ . The signature for direct Higgs production is a small rise in the cross sections for particular final states, consistent with Higgs decays, over the expectations for their occurrence due to Standard Model (SM) background processes involving $\mathrm {Z}^*$ , $\gamma ^*$ , or t -channel exchanges alone. Performing such a measurement is remarkably challenging for four main reasons. First, the low value of the e $^\pm $ mass leads to a tiny $y_\mathrm {e}$ coupling and correspondingly small cross section: $\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} \propto m_\mathrm {e}^2 = 0.57$ fb accounting for initial-state $\gamma $ radiation. Second, the $\mathrm {e^+e^-}$ beams must be monochromatized such that the spread of their centre-of-mass (c.m.) energy is commensurate with the narrow width of the SM Higgs boson, $\varGamma _\mathrm {H} = 4.1$ MeV, while keeping large beam luminosities. Third, the Higgs mass must also be known beforehand with a few-MeV accuracy in order to operate the collider at the resonance peak, $\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}$ . Last but not least, the cross sections of the background processes are many orders-of-magnitude larger than those of the Higgs decay signals. A preliminary generator-level study of 11 Higgs decay channels using a multivariate analysis, which exploits boosted decision trees to discriminate signal and background events, identifies two final states as the most promising ones in terms of statistical significance: $\mathrm {H}\rightarrow gg$ and $\mathrm {H}\rightarrow \mathrm {W}\mathrm {W}^*\!\rightarrow \ell \nu $ + 2 jets. For a benchmark monochromatization with 4.1-MeV c.m. energy spread (leading to $\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} = 0.28$ fb) and 10 ab $^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity, a $1.3\sigma $ signal significance can be reached, corresponding to an upper limit on the e $^\pm $ Yukawa coupling at 1.6 times the SM value: |y e | < 1.6|y e SM | at 95% confidence level, per FCC-ee interaction point per year. Directions for future improvements of the study are outlined.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergent disorder and mechanical memory in periodic metamaterials

Ordered mechanical systems typically have one or only a few stable rest configurations, and hence are not considered useful for encoding memory. Multistable and history-dependent responses usually emerge from quenched disorder, for example in amorphous solids or crumpled sheets. In contrast, due to geometric frustration, periodic magnetic systems can create their own disorder and espouse an extensive manifold of quasi-degenerate configurations. Inspired by the topological structure of frustrated artificial spin ices, we introduce an approach to design ordered, periodic mechanical metamaterials that exhibit an extensive set of spatially disordered states. While our design exploits the correspondence between frustration in magnetism and incompatibility in meta-mechanics, our mechanical systems encompass continuous degrees of freedom, and thus generalize their magnetic counterparts. We show how such systems exhibit non-Abelian and history-dependent responses, as their state can depend on the order in which external manipulations were applied. We demonstrate how this richness of the dynamics enables to recognize, from a static measurement of the final state, the sequence of operations that an extended system underwent. Thus, multistability and potential to perform computation emerge from geometric frustration in ordered mechanical lattices that create their own disorder.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Symmetry-specific orientational order parameters for complex structures

A comprehensive framework of characterizing complex self-assembled structures with a set of orientational order parameters is presented. It is especially relevant in the context of using anisotropic building blocks with various symmetries. Two classes of tensor order parameters are associated with polyhedral nematic and bond orientational order. For the latter, a variation of classical bond order parameters (BOPs) is introduced, which takes advantage of the symmetry of constituent particles and/or expected crystalline phases. These symmetrized BOPs can be averaged over an entire system or assigned locally to an individual bond. By combining that with the bond percolation procedure, one is able to identify coherent domains within a self-assembled structure. As a demonstration of the proposed framework, we apply it to a simulated hybrid system that combines isotropic and patchy particles with octahedral symmetry. In conclusion, not only does the methodology allow one to identify individual crystalline domains but also it detects coherent clusters of a peculiar compact amorphous structure that is not space-filling and lacks any long-range order.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to discover mineral trapping signatures due to CO 2 injection

Mineral trapping is pursued as a geological CO 2 sequestration (GCS) mechanism because it permanently stores CO 2 in solid phases or minerals. However, CO 2 mineral-trapping mechanisms are poorly understood due to (1) lack of sufficient field and laboratory data characterizing these complex processes, and (2) challenges to develop site-specific reactive-transport models coupling fluid flow and geochemical reactions occurring at various temporal (from milliseconds to years) and spatial (from pore (millimeters) to field (kilometers)) scales. Reactive transport with additional complexities such as heterogeneity can make the simulation outputs even more difficult to interpret because of complex nonlinearity and multi-scale interdependencies. Furthermore, the values of model outputs such as concentrations can vary by several orders of magnitude, making it harder to correlate and characterize the impact of the variables via traditional data interpretation techniques such as exploratory data analyses. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown promise in feature discovery and in highlighting hidden mechanisms that cannot be obtained by existing data-analytics and statistical methods. In this study, we applied an unsupervised ML approach, non-negative matrix factorization with custom -means clustering (NMF) to the data generated by reactive-transport simulations of GCS. The reactive-transport data consisted of 19 attributes, including four physio-chemical variables (pH, porosity, aqueous CO 2 , and sequestered CO 2 ), six chemical species (K + , Na + , HCO, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Fe 2+ ), and four carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite, siderite, and ankerite), a feldspar mineral (albite), and four clay minerals (illite, clinochlore, kaolinite, and smectite) over a period of 200 years of simulation time. Furthermore, the simulation data used was for Morrow B sandstone at the Farnsworth hydrocarbon unit in Texas. Data are sampled at two locations within the model domain: (1) at the injection well and (2) 200 m west of the injection well. The injection was performed for a period of 10 years. Using NMF, we estimated the temporal interdependencies among the 19 attributes over a span of 200 years. We found that NMF was able to identify four reaction stages and their dominant attributes; these cannot be directly discerned through traditional visualization (e.g., line plots, Pareto analysis, Glyph-based visualization methods) or exploratory data analysis tools of the simulation data. The four stages were: reactions in the injection phase followed by short-, mid-, and long-term reactions. The NMF analysis also revealed that 10 among the 19 attributes are dominant. These dominant attributes for mineral trapping include calcite, dolomite at injection well, siderite at 200 m away from the injection well, clinochlore, kaolinite, Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , pH, and aqeuous CO 2 . Finally, at late times (65–200 years), our results showed that calcite plays a major role in mineral trapping with insignificant contribution from siderite, ankerite, and clay minerals. These findings make the proposed unsupervised ML-model attractive for reactive-transport sensing towards real-time GCS monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating quantum optics experiments with statistical learning

Quantum optics experiments, involving the measurement of low-probability photon events, are known to be extremely time-consuming. We present a methodology for accelerating such experiments using physically motivated ansatzes together with simple statistical learning techniques such as Bayesian maximum a posteriori estimation based on few-shot data. We show that it is possible to reconstruct time-dependent data using a small number of detected photons, allowing for fast estimates in under a minute and providing a one-to-two order of magnitude speed-up in data acquisition time. We test our approach using real experimental data to retrieve the second order intensity correlation function, G (2) ($τ$), as a function of time delay τ between detector counts, for thermal light as well as anti-bunched light emitted by a quantum dot driven by periodic laser pulses. The proposed methodology has a wide range of applicability and has the potential to impact the scientific discovery process across a multitude of domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalability Testing Approach for Internet of Things for Manufacturing SQL and NoSQL Database Latency and Throughput

The proliferation of low-cost sensors and industrial data solutions has continued to push the frontier of manufacturing technology. Machine learning and other advanced statistical techniques stand to provide tremendous advantages in production capabilities, optimization, monitoring, and efficiency. The tremendous volume of data gathered continues to grow, and the methods for storing the data are critical underpinnings for advancing manufacturing technology. This work aims to investigate the ramifications and design tradeoffs within a decoupled architecture of two prominent database management systems (DBMS): sql and NoSQL. A representative comparison is carried out with Amazon Web Services (AWS) DynamoDB and AWS Aurora MySQL. The technologies and accompanying design constraints are investigated, and a side-by-side comparison is carried out through high-fidelity industrial data simulated load tests using metrics from a major US manufacturer. The results support the use of simulated client load testing for comparing the latency of database management systems as a system scales up from the prototype stage into production. As a result of complex query support, MySQL is favored for higher-order insights, while NoSQL can reduce system latency for known access patterns at the expense of integrated query flexibility. Here, by reviewing this work, a manufacturer can observe that the use of high-fidelity load testing can reveal tradeoffs in IoTfM write/ingestion performance in terms of latency that are not observable through prototype-scale testing of commercially available cloud DB solutions.

AWS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ensemble average and nearest particle statistics in disperse multiphase flows

A relation between the ensemble average and the nearest particle statistics is derived. The relation accounts for interactions among all the particles, not only the nearest one, and can be used to study long-range particle interactions without the difficulty of a divergent integral. As an example, this relation is applied to calculate the particle sedimentation velocity to the first order of the particle volume fraction. Using the relation, an important particle–fluid–particle stress is introduced for general multiphase flows.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory for electrons: Algebraic recursive definitions, second-quantized derivation, linked-diagram theorem, general-order algorithms, and grand canonical and canonical ensembles

A comprehensive and detailed account is presented for the finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory for electrons that expands in power series all thermodynamic functions on an equal footing. Algebraic recursions in the style of the Rayleigh–Schrödinger perturbation theory are derived for the grand potential, chemical potential, internal energy, and entropy in the grand canonical ensemble and for the Helmholtz energy, internal energy, and entropy in the canonical ensemble, leading to their sum-over-states analytical formulas at any arbitrary order. For the grand canonical ensemble, these sum-over-states formulas are systematically transformed to sum-over-orbitals reduced analytical formulas by the quantum-field-theoretical techniques of normal-ordered second quantization and Feynman diagrams extended to finite temperature. It is found that the perturbation corrections to energies entering the recursions have to be treated as a nondiagonal matrix, whose off-diagonal elements are generally nonzero within a subspace spanned by degenerate Slater determinants. They give rise to a unique set of linked diagrams—renormalization diagrams—whose resolvent lines are displaced upward, which are distinct from the well-known anomalous diagrams of which one or more resolvent lines are erased. A linked-diagram theorem is introduced that proves the size-consistency of the finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory at any order. General-order algorithms implementing the recursions establish the convergence of the perturbation series toward the finite-temperature full-configuration-interaction limit unless the series diverges. As a result, the normal-ordered Hamiltonian at finite temperature sheds light on the relationship between the finite-temperature Hartree–Fock and first-order many-body perturbation theories.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving neutrino energy estimation of charged-current interaction events with recurrent neural networks in MicroBooNE

We present a deep learning-based method for estimating the neutrino energy of charged-current neutrino-argon interactions. We employ a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture for neutrino energy estimation in the MicroBooNE experiment, utilizing liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector technology. Traditional energy estimation approaches in LArTPCs, which largely rely on reconstructing and summing visible energies, often experience sizable biases and resolution smearing because of the complex nature of neutrino interactions and the detector response. The estimation of neutrino energy can be improved after considering the kinematics information of reconstructed final-state particles. Utilizing kinematic information of reconstructed particles, the deep learning-based approach shows improved resolution and reduced bias for the muon neutrino Monte Carlo simulation sample compared to the traditional approach. In order to address the common concern about the effectiveness of this method on experimental data, the RNN-based energy estimator is further examined and validated with dedicated data-simulation consistency tests using MicroBooNE data. We also assess its potential impact on a neutrino oscillation study after accounting for all statistical and systematic uncertainties and show that it enhances physics sensitivity. This method has good potential to improve the performance of other physics analyses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inverse design of a pyrochlore lattice of DNA origami through model-driven experiments

Sophisticated statistical mechanics approaches and human intuition have demonstrated the possibility of self-assembling complex lattices or finite-size constructs. However, attempts so far have mostly only been successful in silico and often fail in experiment because of unpredicted traps associated with kinetic slowing down (gelation, glass transition) and competing ordered structures. Theoretical predictions also face the difficulty of encoding the desired interparticle interaction potential with the experimentally available nano- and micrometer-sized particles. To overcome these issues, we combine SAT assembly (a patchy-particle interaction design algorithm based on constrained optimization) with coarse-grained simulations of DNA nanotechnology to experimentally realize trap-free self-assembly pathways. In this paper, we use this approach to assemble a pyrochlore three-dimensional lattice, coveted for its promise in the construction of optical metamaterials, and characterize it with small-angle x-ray scattering and scanning electron microscopy visualization.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗