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DOE OSTI2021

Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias

The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI for Earthquake Physics

The core LANL program sponsored by Office of Science, Basic Energy Science, Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences (DOE-BES-CSGB) and led by PI Johnson aims to research earthquake faults to advance fault physics and earthquake hazards. All work completed is required to be made publicly available through publications and open-source codes supporting the published results. All routines are/will-be written in open source python and applied to publicly available data sets. These routines will format data from input into models, develop and test modeling frameworks for the problems addressed, and produce figures applicable to peer-reviewed manuscripts. All work is reviewed for Los Alamos Unlimited Release before submitting to a journal. This summary encompasses recently completed work and work to be complete for the duration of the program.

Johnson, Christopher↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward a Smart Metaverse City: Immersive Realism and 3D Visualization of Digital Twin Cities

Metaverse and its related extended reality technologies can enable immersive, realistic, and participatory visualization of 3D data, and their use and the potential within a smart city can be effective for supporting urban research and urban operations management. This book chapter describes a vision for prototyping a “Smart Metaverse City” to combine the unique advantage of the Metaverse technology with the two-way connectivity of a digital twin city application. This synergy aims to create a virtual environment for immersive geovisualization to help researchers and the public understand the complex urban system through science-based and data-driven approaches. This book chapter selectively reviews past technological and paradigm advancements for collecting, analyzing, and visualizing 3D urban big data. Then we present a prototyping Geographic Information System (GIS) framework, together with some relevant data sources and open-source web technologies, to help researchers create a smart Metaverse city. We demonstrate our vision and discuss its application opportunities through a real-world example, a digital twin city developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to facilitate participatory, smart, and sustainable campus management.

Xu, Haowen↗

DOE OSTI2021

OpenOA: An Open-Source Codebase For Operational Analysis of Wind Farms

OpenOA is an open source framework for operational data analysis of wind energy plants, implemented in the Python programming language. OpenOA provides a common data model, high level analysis workflows, and low-level convenience functions that engineers, analysts, and researchers in the wind energy industry can use to facilitate analytics workflows on operational data sets. OpenOA contains documentation, worked out examples in Jupyter notebooks, and a corresponding example dataset from the Engie Renewable’s La Haute Borne Dataset.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

`SkyPy`: A package for modelling the Universe

SkyPy is an open-source Python package for simulating the astrophysical sky. It comprises a library of physical and empirical models across a range of observables and a command-line script to run end-to-end simulations. The library provides functions that sample realisations of sources and their associated properties from probability distributions. Simulation pipelines are constructed from these models using a YAML-based configuration syntax, while task scheduling and data dependencies are handled internally and the modular design allows users to interface with external software. SkyPy is developed and maintained by a diverse community of domain experts with a focus on software sustainability and interoperability. By fostering development, it provides a framework for correlated simulations of a range of cosmological probes including galaxy populations, large scale structure, the cosmic microwave background, supernovae and gravitational waves. Version 0.4 implements functions that model various properties of galaxies including luminosity functions, redshift distributions and optical photometry from spectral energy distribution templates. Future releases will provide additional modules, for example, to simulate populations of dark matter halos and model the galaxy-halo connection, making use of existing software packages from the astrophysics community where appropriate.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Technoeconomic Analysis of Infrastructure Buildout Scenarios

The success of CCUS deployment in the southeast will depend on the optimized pipeline network from CO 2 point sources to geologic sinks for CO 2 storage. An optimal pipeline framework will reduce both environmental impacts and pipeline building cost. However, finding an optimal pipeline/transport infrastructure design is a non-trivial task and requires simultaneous usage of large volumes of data, computational resources, and a state-of-the-art simulator. Such a transport infrastructure model must consider point sources for CO 2 capture and associated volumes, sinks for CO 2 storage, and transportation from source to sink via pipeline networks. These considerations must be addressed simultaneously and systemically in an optimization process, in which a defined objective function (i.e., capital, variable CO 2 capture, transport, and storage cost function) is required to be minimized with the consideration of practical constraints (e.g., CO 2 flow through pipelines is less than the maximum capacity). Although optimization has been widely used in subsurface resources production and CO 2 storage, its application in large scale CCUS infrastructure design is rarely reported in the literature. SimCCS, developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory, is an open-source CCUS pipeline infrastructure design toolset that facilitates the optimization of pipeline infrastructure networks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Modular ADMS to Plug-and-Play Ops: Distribution Grid Operations with Platform-Level Orchestration to Enable Ambitious App Hosting

The core function of the distribution grid is to provide electricity to consumers affordably, reliably, and securely. In pursuing these core objectives, distribution utilities are accountable to customers, regulators, and in some cases, shareholders. Other third parties such as aggregators and microgrids can also have a stake in the smooth operation of the grid. Each of these stakeholders has economic, business, and/or governance objectives that inform their expectations of the distribution grid. This multi-objective, multi-stakeholder environment creates tension that must be reconciled to successfully design and operate the distribution grid. Innovative companies are competing to bring high-tech solutions to electric utilities and their customers that address each of these objectives. Many developers of advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) have adopted a modular architecture that allows grid operators to select functions and features according to their individual system needs. A modular platform also allows the solution provider to develop and integrate specific new product modules; however, the need to pursue multiple objectives with a fixed set of controllable devices makes integration expensive whether it is done at the product development stage or the deployment stage. This cost creates a significant barrier to adoption and can lengthen the product to market time of new solutions. To fundamentally address the complexity of system integration for distribution grid operations, the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity has funded the GridAPPS-D project at PNNL, which streamlines integration by contributing to standards development, defining system architecture, applying advanced mathematics, and developing open-source software to demonstrate the concept of an open data-integration platform for distribution operations. The open data-integration platform concept enables system operators and solution providers to deploy ambitious, best-of-breed applications (or apps) without continually reengineering for integration. Ambitious apps developed by different solution providers will inevitably attempt to achieve different control objectives with the same set of controllable devices. If the open platform itself can resolve these conflicts in a way that achieves the best available outcomes for all apps, doesn’t restrict the ambitious design of apps, and ensures safe and secure operations, apps will be able to plug-and-play with the platform at the same time as other ambitious apps. In this paper, we describe a framework called App Deconfliction that empowers a platform to assign setpoints to controllable devices based on the values preferred by different apps (and even external stakeholder entities like customers or aggregators). The App Deconfliction framework is compatible with several methods for determining setpoint values. We present two methods based on game theory that provide a subtle built-in incentive structure for developers to adapt their apps to the fact that they will be operating in a moderated multi-app environment and to favor device setpoints that have the most effect on their objectives over those that have the least effect. Our simulation-based demonstrations have shown that game-theory-based deconfliction can lead to a 7% improvement in control space utilization compared to design-based methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

NASA NTRS2003

[Development and Use of Hidrosig]

The NASA portion of this joint NSF-NASA grant consists of objective 2 and a part of objective 3. A major effort was made on objective 2, and it consisted of developing a numerical GIs environment called Hidrosig. This major research tool is being developed by the University of Colorado for conducting river-network-based scaling analyses of coupled water-energy-landform-vegetation interactions including water and energy balances, and floods and droughts, at multiple space-time scales.Objective 2: To analyze the relevant remotely sensed products from satellites, radars and ground measurements to compute the transported water mass for each complete Strahler stream using an 'assimilated water balance equation' at daily and other appropriate time scales. This objective requires analysis of concurrent data sets for Precipitation (PPT), Evapotranspiration (ET) and stream flows (Q) on river networks. To solve this major problem, our decision was to develop Hidrosig, a new Open-Source GIs software. A research group in Colombia, South America, developed the first version of Hidrosig, and Ricardo Mantilla was part of this effort as an undergraduate student before joining the graduate program at the University of Colorado in 2001. Hydrosig automatically extracts river networks from large DEMs and creates a "link-based" data structure, which is required to conduct a variety of analyses under objective 2. It is programmed in Java, which is a multi-platform programming language freely distributed by SUN under a GPL license. Some existent commercial tools like Arc-Info, RiverTools and others are not suitable for our purpose for two reasons. First, the source code is not available that is needed to build on the network data structure. Second, these tools use different programming languages that are not most versatile for our purposes. For example, RiverTools uses an IDL platform that is not very efficient for organizing diverse data sets on river networks. Hidrosig establishes a clear data organization framework that allows a simultaneous analysis of spatial fields along river network structures involving Horton- Strahler framework. Software tools for network extraction from DEMs and network-based analysis of geomorphologic and topologic variables were developed during the first year and a part of second year.

Gupta, Vijay K.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of Adverse Events in Time Series Data Using ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox)

Abstract:An open-source toolbox called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox) that operates from within the Matlab programming environment is introduced. The toolbox provides an open source, special-purpose functionality that can be used specifically for the prediction or forecasting of adverse events in time series data. It also provides a single, unifying framework in which to compare a variety of combinations of algorithmic approaches addressing this problem. The architectural framework also offers the flexibility for expansion to accommodate the newest, latest popular regression and detection methods for this particular problem, enabling the development of an infrastructure that can act as a proving ground platform for comparing new techniques to the state of the art. As such, its intention is to act as a catalyst in advancing the state of the art in technologies related to this problem. There are a variety of other toolboxes that offer similar capabilities and features, however they are either more suitable as general purpose machine learning toolboxes or are only available commercially or through agreements. ACCEPT fills that niche by offering visibility into a specific approach for addressing the adverse event prediction problem.

programming environments↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

INCREASING THE TRANSPARENCY AND REPRODUCIBILITY OF SPACE RADIATION SCIENCE: THE RADIATION BIOLOGY ONTOLOGY

Among the primary objectives of the Open/Open-Source Science paradigm are making scientific investigation data transparent and results reproducible [1], objectives shared by the FAIR principles [2]. To accomplish this, the conceptual framework that includes all the investigation objects needs to be accurately captured and communicated to all data consumers. A large part of this requires using metadata standards to annotate data collected. These standards should be readily accessible, informed by scientific community consensus and sufficiently specific to encompass all of the important aspects of the investigation. Starting in 2020 we have been co-leading an open consortium to develop a new metadata standard, the Radiation Biology Ontology (RBO), through the Open Biological and Biomedical Ontologies (OBO) Foundry [3]. We began by transforming many of the terms from the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement into concepts that can be formally related to existing OBO Foundry classes or attributes. We then identified and imported into the RBO existing OBO Foundry classes that have obvious relevance for radiation biomedicine (for example, concepts from the Environment Ontology that describe radiative processes, and concepts from the Gene Ontology dealing with molecular and cellular responses to radiation). Finally, we scrutinized datasets from investigations of radiation effects held in NASA GeneLab and LSDA repositories and added additional classes, instances, and attributes into the RBO that should be used to annotate these data. We developed the RBO using the open-source tools of GitHub and publish the RBO periodically through the NIH/NCBI BioPortal website, so systems worldwide can leverage the knowledge it contains [4]. This initial phase of concept modeling has yielded an RBO that at present has more than 300 declared concepts, with more than 3500 additional concepts imported from other OBO Foundry ontologies. While this first phase has focused on concepts for annotating samples, environments, exposures, and measurements, the next phase will center on supporting annotation of results and findings, such as concept models of molecular, cellular and tissue effects. The value of the RBO will be determined in part by our ability to engage the community in its development, and we have established a Radiobiology Informatics Consortium with unrestricted membership as the owner of the RBO in order to encourage investigators, system owners and other to join in this effort. Anyone can report issues or request new concept modeling or other features directly on GitHub. By using the BioPortal application programming interface, systems can pose dynamic queries to the latest version of the RBO for information on individual classes or entire hierarchies; this design eliminates the need for systems to be updated in order to use newer versions of the RBO. We hope to contribute to the advancement of open radiobiological science through the continued, open development of the RBO, that will provide more precise, machine-interpretable descriptions of investigations, as well as support data meta-analysis through machine learning or other artificial intelligence methods. REFERENCES [1] Open science in space. Nature Medicine, 2021. 27(9): p. 1485-1485. [2] Wilkinson, M.D., et al., The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship. Sci Data, 2016. 3: p. 160018. [3] Smith, B., et al., The OBO Foundry: coordinated evolution of ontologies to support biomedical data integration. Nat Biotechnol, 2007. 25(11): p. 1251-5. [4] Whetzel, P.L., et al., BioPortal: enhanced functionality via new Web services from the National Center for Biomedical Ontology to access and use ontologies in software applications. Nucleic Acids Res, 2011. 39(Web Server issue): p. W541-5.

informatics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

INCREASING THE TRANSPARENCY AND REPRODUCIBILITY OF SPACE RADIATION SCIENCE: THE RADIATION BIOLOGY ONTOLOGY

knowledge↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-source Numerical Modeling of Solidification Cracking Susceptibility: Application to Refractory Alloy Systems

Introduction. Alloys such as aluminum, nickel-base, and austenitic stainless steels are susceptible to solidification cracking during welding and 3D printing. Compositional optimization is one method used to effectively mitigate solidification cracking of those alloy systems. With the surge in hypersonic and in-space propulsion activities, refractory metals (Nb, Mo, Ta, W, and Re) and their alloy derivatives are increasing in importance due to their extreme high melting point and retention of high-temperature strength; however, their chemistry was most typically optimized to promote ductility during mechanical operations such as drawing and forming. Welding of such alloys has been a challenge due to a number of issues including solidification cracking, atmospheric contamination (O, C, and N), as well as a shift in ductile-to-brittle transition to higher temperature following grain growth induced by welding. Compositional optimization of refractory alloys for solidification cracking resistance in particular is desirable as their usage increases with the advent of advanced manufacturing methods such as 3D printing. This work evaluates the effect of compositional variation in refractory metal systems on the solidification cracking susceptibility with the goals of optimizing existing alloys and joining process techniques, and formulating new alloys with increased solidification cracking resistance. Experimental Procedures. A python code was developed in a Jupyter notebook environment (Michael and Sowards, 2023) to facilitate the calculation of crack susceptibility index proposed by Kou (2015). Composition is entered as a single point, or as a 1-D or 2-D array. The notebook calls pycalphad (Otis and Liu, 2017 and Bocklund et al, 2020) to calculate the evolution of fraction solid as a function of temperature (under either Scheil or equilibrium assumptions) and then evaluates steepness of the fraction solid curve near the terminal stage of solidification to predict solidification cracking resistance. Open source thermodynamic databases available at online repositories are used (van de Walle). The process is setup in an automated fashion to generate plots that show variation in solidification cracking susceptibility according to composition on 1-D line plots or 2-D contour plots. The Jupyter notebook and crack susceptibility algorithm was also integrated with a widely used commercial CALPHAD code for validation and alloy exploration. Results and Discussion. The crack susceptibility model was first validated against a series of refractory alloy compositions evaluated in past work which utilized a specialized Varestraint test built inside a vacuum chamber environment (Lessman and Gold, 1971). The alloys tested in the Varestraint apparatus included T-111 (Ta-8W-2Hf), ASTAR-811C (Ta-8W-1Re-0.7Hf-0.025C), FS-85 (Nb-27Ta-10W-1Zr), T-222 (Ta-9.6W-2.4Hf-0.01C), Ta-10W, B-66 (Nb-5Mo-5V-1Zr), and SCb-291 (Nb-10W-10Ta). The initial test of the model showed a strong correlation with empirical Varestraint data, i.e., a Spearman rank correlation between model predictions and hot cracking measurements was observed to be greater than 0.8. Following the validation, a set of refractory metal binary mixtures was investigated to evaluate sensitivity of Nb, Mo, W, and Ta to C, N, and O content. A series of plots were produced that suggest ppmw ranges of C, N, and O where solidification cracking increases significantly and reaches a maximum. Also comparative ranking of each primary refractory metal to each interstitial was produced. For example C produces greater cracking response in Mo whereas O produces greater cracking response in Ta and Nb. Such compositional values have utility in setting limits on pickup of these interstitial elements during welding and printing rather than using a one-size-fits-all approach. Furthermore, the results have use in determining additive powder recycling requirements, which is especially pertinent for refractory metal powders due to their high cost compared to conventional alloys. Another application created thousands of hypothetical alloys within the nominal specified composition range of two widely used refractory alloys C103 (Nb-10Hf-1Ti) and TZM (Mo-0.5Ti-0.1Zr). The cracking index was calculated for the alloys and results were fed into machine learning regression techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, and Lasso Regression to determine relative potency each alloying element had on computed solidification cracking index. A series of linear equations were produced that relate composition of C103 and TZM to solidification cracking index. The crack susceptibility of C103 for example is described by an equation of the form: cracking index ~ O + 0.667*C + 0.635*N + 0.00037*Ta – 0.0008*Hf (in wt.%) From that equation, it is clear that O has strong propensity to induce solidification cracking. Interestingly, Hf is shown to reduce calculated cracking response. Finally, realizing the potential of this method to discover new refractory alloy formulations across the period table that have low solidification cracking sensitivity, the code was applied to new untested alloy systems including W-Zr-C, W-Ta-C, and others. Conclusions. In summary, an open source numerical method has been developed using Python code to calculate Kou’s crack susceptibility index. The method was applied to refractory metals which are inherently difficult to study from a weldability testing standpoint since inert shielding gas is not sufficient and welding is typically done in vacuum, especially in light of findings presented here where oxygen has profound influence on solidification cracking. This work revealed the effect of compositional variations on a series of refractory metals and showed the framework defined here will be useful in 1) the development of new alloys that have improved weldability and 3D printability, 2) placing compositional limits on existing alloys, and 3) ensuring adequate controls of manufacturing processes such as 3D printing where powder reuse is critical. Keywords. pycalphad; Python; refractory metals; solidification cracking. References. B. Bocklund et. al. (2020) http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3630657. S. Kou. (2015) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actamat.2015.01.034. G.G. Lessmann and R.E. Gold. Welding Journal, issue 1, pp. 1-s – 8-s (1971). F.N. Michael and J.W. Sowards. NASA/TM-20230002218 (2023). R. Otis and Z.-K. Liu. (2017) http://doi.org/10.5334/jors.140. A. Van de Wallle et. al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.calphad.2018.04.003.

pycalphad↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulated Multipath Using Software Generated GPS Signals

Depending on the environment, multipath can be one of the largest error sources contributing to degradation in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) (e.g., GPS) performance. Multipath is a phenomenon that occurs as radio signals reflect off of surfaces, such as buildings, producing multiple copies of the original signal. When this occurs with GPS signals, it results in one or more delayed signals arriving at the receiver with or without the on-time/direct GPS signal. The receiver measures the composite of these signals which, depending on the severity of the multipath, can substantially degrade the accuracy of the receiver's calculated position. Multipath is commonly experienced in cities due to tall buildings and its mitigation is an ongoing area of study. This research demonstrates a novel approach for simulating GPS multipath through the modification of an open-source tool, GPS-SDR-SIM. The resulting additional testing capability could allow for improved development of multipath mitigating technologies. Currently, open-source tools for simulating GPS signals are available and can be used in the testing and evaluation of GPS receiver equipment. These tools can generate GPS signals that, when used by a GPS receiver, result in computation of a position solution that was pre-determined at the time of signal generation. That is, the signals produced are properly formed for the pre-determined location and result in the receiver reporting that position. This allows for a GPS receiver under test to be exposed to various simulated locations and conditions without having to be physically subjected to them. Additionally, while these signals are generated by a software simulation, they can be processed by real or software defined GPS receivers. This work utilizes the GPS-SDR-SIM software tool for GPS signal generation and while this tool does implement some sources of error that are inherent to GPS, it cannot inject multipath. GPS-SDR-SIM was modified in this effort to produce additional copies of signals with pre-determined delays. These additional delayed signals mimic multipath and represent what happens to GPS signals in the real world as they reflect off of surfaces and arrive at a receiver in place of or alongside the direct GPS signal. A successful proof of concept was prototyped and demonstrated using this modified version of GPS-SDR-SIM to produce simulated GPS signals as well as additional simulated multipath signals. The generated data was processed using a software defined GPS receiver and it was found that the introduction of simulated multipath signals successfully produced the expected characteristics of a composite multipath signal. Further maturation of this work could allow for the development of a GPS receiver testing and evaluation framework and aid in the development of multipath mitigating technologies.

GPS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Concepts of Operations Using Multi-Step Tool Techniques With Large Language Models

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Air Mobility Pathfinders (AMP) project is developing and evaluating concepts of operations (ConOps) for safe, secure, and scalable Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The AMP project’s Operational Concepts, Architecture, and Requirements Integration (OCARI) Team is using a Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) approach for integration, interoperability, and traceability of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) ecosystems centered around urban air taxi services. The team’s goal is to define structures and behaviors needed for system feasibility, readiness, and interoperability, establish a UAM knowledge base, and trace and validate assumptions and requirements relevant to AAM. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is spearheading an innovative digital engineering approach to integrate, communicate, and facilitate the research of multi-modal transportation systems. The Knowledge-based Digital Platform (KbDP) is a concept being developed that ties the workflows of Project Managers (PM), Principal Investigators (PI), and System Engineers together across organizational boundaries. It does so through the management of an information database defined by mathematical, data science, and system engineering principles. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms play a key role in this concept by extracting meaningful knowledge from relational and graph databases, document repositories, and system artifacts, which the human user leverages to greatly improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their research. Recent advancements in the field of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically models trained for tool use, such as Command-R , now allow for the reliable implementation of single-step and multi-step tool-centric systems. These techniques provide the LLM with a set of tools, in our case Python functions, that can be called on to answer a much wider range of questions compared to LLMs implemented using a traditional single-source or Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) approach. Through this method, the LLM can pull information from multiple data sources, such as relational or graph databases, document repositories, application programming interfaces (APIs), and SysML artifacts depending on the user’s question. The LLM can also output the information in a variety of different formats, using output generation tools, such as CSV, UML, or SysML artifacts. Additionally, tools can be assigned roles and can work together to provide answers to queries in an “agent” like approach, similar to that implemented by Microsoft’s AutoGen framework where different agents can converse with each other to accomplish tasks. Previously, our team developed a chatbot system with “agent like” functionality in the form of different “modes” the user could select from a user interface (UI), this architecture can be seen on the left in figure 1. Three different modes were implemented, the first mode allowed the LLM to utilize the structures and algorithms within a graph database to trace UAM requirements. The second mode gave the LLM access to a vector search capable of providing relevant information from thousands of document pages related to UAM ConOps and requirements. The third mode served as a general assistant where users could enter open-ended questions and custom prompts to utilize the LLM for different use-cases. This system improved the process surrounding generating and analyzing information related to UAM requirements, however, the implementation provided a clunky user experience. Users were required to know what mode to select within the UI in advance before entering their question to the selected tool. Moreover, the different tools were isolated from each other, they lacked bidirectional links that would allow for tools to collaborate to generate better responses. Our team is working on a new architecture, seen on the right in the below figure, with the goal to address many of the UX shortcomings of our original system while improving the accuracy and depth of responses from the LLM. This new system will automatically select the appropriate tool to use based off the user’s question. Each tool will be capable of calling on any of the other tools available to the LLM, resulting in a collaborative pipeline where tools can pass data between other tools until enough data is received to generate an answer to the user’s question. Using a locally deployed, open-source, LLM, the NASA OCARI team, in collaboration with Collins Aerospace, will implement a prototype application that will bridge knowledge across multiple sources to assist System Engineers (SEs) with requirements discovery and tracing, research question and use case identification, and assumption validation. Such a system will also allow SEs to more easily, and intuitively, explore the AAM ecosystem, ultimately improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the SE's research and decision-making processes surrounding ConOps development and validation. In this session, our team will provide a video demonstration of our new prototype architecture in action. We will also present an overview of our prototype system architecture and talk about its advantages over traditional LLM deployments along with how those advantages can provide additional value to the field of System Engineering.

systems engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Responsiveness and Resilience with Distributed Applications in the Grid

A number of trends are increasing the variability in electric power systems resulting in a need for new approaches in control. The increased variability is originating from distributed energy resources and an increasing demand for personalized energy choice from customers grid-edge. Electricity distribution systems continue to incorporate increasing numbers of intelligent end devices, automated switchgear, and sensing and measurement devices which are providing more visibility and control at the grid-edge. Traditional distribution system planning and operations techniques must evolve to meet the new complexity while continuing to deliver safe, reliable, and cost-effective energy. New technologies are enabling new capabilities at the grid-edge to respond to these needs. Distributed applications can deploy intelligence across the distribution grid with peer-to-peer communications and a shared data context for their local environment. These applications can cooperate with each other to respond quickly to changing grid conditions. This enables a layered coordination framework spanning the centralized Advanced Distribution Management System functions with wide area visibility to these new distributed applications running at intelligent devices and meters throughout the distribution system. This paper describes an open-architecture, open-source system approach for commercial scale integration of devices and intelligence at the grid-edge.

Ogle, James P.↗