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At least 613 records · Page 34

Observing, analyzing, and modeling mesoscale weather phenomena

The objective of the paper is to place current research into mesoscale weather phenomena in proper perspective, and to discuss key problems to be addressed in the coming years. Key observing systems and field programs are examined, along with analysis techniques in context of the dynamic models with which they interact. The discussion covers different classes of dynamic models, including prediction models, simulation models, and parameterization schemes.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

Evaluating the Application of Multi-Satellite Observations in Hydrologic Modeling

When monitoring local or regional hydrosphere dynamics for applications such as agricultural productivity or drought and flooding events, it is necessary to have accurate, high-resolution estimates of terrestrial water and energy storages. Though in-situ observations provide reliable estimates of hydrologic states and fluxes, they are only capable of accurately capturing the dynamics at relatively discrete points in space and time, which makes them inadequate for characterizing the variability of the water budget across scales. In contrast, satellite-based remote sensing is ideal for providing observations of hydrological states and fluxes because it provides spatially-distributed observations at spatial and temporal scales required for regional land surface process modeling. Due to the continued progress in algorithm development and emerging satellite technology, we now have near-real time monitoring of several components of the water cycle including precipitation, soil moisture, lake and river height, terrestrial water storage, snow cover, and evapotranspiration. As these data become more readily available, their application to hydrologic modeling is becoming more common, however there remains little consensus on the most appropriate method for optimal integration and evaluation in regard to hydrological applications. Here we present two case studies operationally applying several remotely sensed products from AMSR-E, GRACE, and MODIS and discuss assimilation strategies, ease of integration and interpretation, and methods for quantifying the success of the application methodology.

Bolten, John↗

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗

Can standard cosmological models explain the observed Abell cluster bulk flow?

Lauer and Postman (LP) observed that all Abell clusters with redshifts less than 15,000 km/s appear to be participating in a bulk flow of 689 km/s with respect to the cosmic microwave background. We find this result difficult to reconcile with all popular models for large-scale structure formation that assume Gaussian initial conditions. This conclusion is based on Monte Carlo realizations of the LP data, drawn from large particle-mesh N-body simulations for six different models of the initial power spectrum (standard, tilted, and Omega(sub 0) = 0.3 cold dark matter, and two variants of the primordial baryon isocurvature model). We have taken special care to treat properly the longest-wavelength components of the power spectra. The simulations are sampled, 'observed,' and analyzed as identically as possible to the LP cluster sample. Large-scale bulk flows as measured from clusters in the simulations are in excellent agreement with those measured from the grid: the clusters do not exhibit any strong velocity bias on large scales. Bulk flows with amplitude as large as that reported by LP are not uncommon in the Monte Carlo data stes; the distribution of measured bulk flows before error bias subtraction is rougly Maxwellian, with a peak around 400 km/s. However the chi squared of the observed bulk flow, taking into account the anisotropy of the error ellipsoid, is much more difficult to match in the simulations. The models examined are ruled out at confidence levels between 94% and 98%.

Strauss, Michael A.↗

Understanding the Variability of Helium Abundance in the Solar Corona Using Three Fluid Modeling and Ultraviolet Observations

The variability of helium abundance in the solar corona and the solar wind is an important signature of solar activity, solar cycle, and solar wind sources, as well as coronal heating processes. Motivated by recently reported remote-sensing UV imaging observations by Helium Resonance Scattering in the Corona and Heliosphere payload sounding rocket of helium abundance in the inner corona on 2009 September 14 near solar minimum, we present the results of the first three-dimensional three-fluid (electrons, protons, and alpha particles) model of tilted coronal streamer belt and slow solar wind that illustrates the various processes leading to helium abundance differentiation and variability. We find good qualitative agreement between the three-fluid model and the coronal helium abundance variability deduced from UV observations of streamers, providing insight on the effects of the physical processes, such as heating, gravitational settling, and interspecies Coulomb friction in the outflowing solar wind that produce the observed features. The study impacts our understanding of the origins of the slow solar wind.

Leon Ofman↗

Plumes and Blooms: Observations, Analysis and Modeling for SIMBIOS

The goal of the Plumes and Blooms (PnB) project is to develop, validate and apply to imagery state-of-the-art ocean color algorithms for quantifying sediment plumes and phytoplankton blooms for the Case II environment of the Santa Barbara Channel. We conduct monthly to twice-monthly transect observations across the Santa Barbara Channel to develop an algorithm development and product validation data set. A primary goal is the use the PnB field data set to objectively tune semi-analytical models of ocean color for this site and apply them using available satellite imagery (SeaWiFS and MODIS). However, the comparison between PnB field observations and satellite estimates of primary products has been disappointing. We find that field estimates of water-leaving radiance correspond poorly to satellite estimates for both SeaWiFS and MODIS local area coverage imagery. We believe this is due to poor atmospheric correction due to complex mixtures of aerosol types found in these near-coastal regions.

Maritorena, S.↗

Titania and Oberon: Surface Composition from New Near-Infrared Observations and Reflectance Models

Here we report the combination of new near-ir spectra (1.45-2.48 micrometers), of Titania and Oberon obtained in September 1995 at a resolving power of approx. 800, with older near-ir observations (0.5- 1.44 micrometers), and recent UV (0.22-0.48 micrometers) observations obtained with HST. Previous interpretations suggest these surfaces are chiefly composed of water ice and varying amounts of spectrally neutral material. The new near-ir data provide the opportunity to search for absorption bands that could be attributable to surface materials other than water ice and because the combined spectra include such a broad wavelength region, to undertake improved models of water and neutral components on the surface. The calculated near-ir geometric albedos clearly exhibit three broad spectral features. Two (1.52- & 2.05 micrometer) have previously been used to demonstrate the presence of water ice on these satellites. The third (approx. 1.65 micrometer), suggests the presence of hexagonal water ice at low temperatures, and may provide a mechanism of estimating the surface temperature. There is no spectral evidence for ices of CO2, CO, NH3 or CH4. At UV wavelengths there is a broad absorption near 0.27-0.28 micrometer previously attributed to OH formed by magnetospheric-surface interactions and retained at the low surface temperatures of these satellites. Surface components used in a Hapke scattering models include values for a combination of irradiated water ice in the UV and hexagonal water ice at 100k in the near-ir (IR), amorphous carbon (AC), and tholins (T) (produced from gas and solid). Results of these models suggest the surfaces of Titania/Oberon are composed of IW (-77/52%) with AC the next most abundant component (approx. 19/52%) and finally T (approx. 4/7%).

Roush, Ted L.↗

High spectral resolution observations and kinematic modeling of the 1667 MHz hyperfine transition of OH in Comets Halley (1982i), Giacobini-Zinner (1984e), Hartley-Good (1985l), Thiele (1985m), and Wilson (1986l)

High-sensitivity, high spectral resolution 18 cm observations of Comets Giacobini-Zinner, Halley, Hartley-Good, Thiele, and Wilson are used here to probe the kinematics of the coma gas of these comets. The day/night outgassing ratio for all these comets is 1.39 (0.13 or - 0.12), independent of gas productivity and heliocentric distance. It is found that the gas productivity of a comet plays a critical role in determining the coma kinematics for bright comets near the sun.

Tacconi-Garman, L. E.↗

Particle Acceleration by Dense Impulsive Structures Moving in Ambient Magnetospheric Plasma. 3-D Hybrid Kinetic Modeling and MMS Observations

High resolution observations of dense plasma impulsive structures moving through an ambient background magnetospheric flows were captured by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission. The observations show particle heating and acceleration, shock-like wave formation, and whistler wave excitation inside the interface between the dense impulsive plasma structures and the ambient plasma. A multiscale hybrid kinetic simulation provides an explanation of the observed wave-particle interactions with the assumption that the dense plasma structures may be represented by plasma clouds which are formed at the magnetopause layer due to reconnection processes. Plain Language Summary: Dense, impulsive plasma structures moving through a background plasma were captured by the NASA Magnetospheric Multiscale mission. The observations show that the dense structures can generate strong perturbations in the electromagnetic field and shock-like waves. Interactions between these electromagnetic waves and the particles results in particle acceleration. 3-D hybrid kinetic modeling (particle description for ions and fluid description for electrons) was used to investigate the plasma physics of the observed structures. It was assumed that the plasma clouds were formed by magnetic field reconnection inside the magnetopause, which is the interface between the solar wind particles and the cold low-density magnetospheric plasma. The work helps us understand the plasma environment at the interface between the Earth and solar wind, near planetary moons, within astrophysical explosions, and possibly at the interface between the solar wind and local interstellar medium.

A. S. Lipatov↗

Three-dimensional analytical model for the spatial variation of the foreshock electron distribution function - Systematics and comparisons with ISEE observations

A model which is consistent with the solar wind and shock surface boundary conditions for the foreshock electron distribution in the absence of wave-particle effects is formulated for an arbitrary location behind the magnetic tangent to the earth's bow shock. Variations of the gyrophase-averaged velocity distribution are compared and contrasted with in situ ISEE observations. It is found that magnetic mirroring of solar wind electrons is the most important process by which nonmonotonic reduced electron distributions in the foreshock are produced. Leakage of particles from the magnetosheath is shown to be relatively unimportant in determining reduced distributions that are nonmonotonic. The two-dimensional distribution function off the magnetic field direction is the crucial contribution in producing reduced distributions which have beams. The time scale for modification of the electron velocity distribution in velocity space can be significantly influenced by steady state spatial gradients in the background imposed by the curved shock geometry.

Fitzenreiter, R. J.↗

Theoretical modeling of GHRS observations of the Of/WN-type star R136a5

We present a theoretical analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) spectrum of R136a5, an O3fWN star in the R136a cluster in 30 Doradus. Using non-LTE extended and expanding model atmospheres, we find a surprisingly high mass-loss rate dot-M = 1.8 +/- 0.5 x 10(exp -5) solar mass/yr and an effective temperature T(sub eff) = 42.5 +/- 2.5 kK. With the observed visual magnitude, this implies a radius R(sub *) = 17 +/- 2 solar radius and a solar luminosity L = 8.5 +/- 1 x 10(exp 5) solar luminosity. We discuss possible sources of the uncertainties in the derived stellar parameters and conclude that the effective temperature may be underestimated; however, if so, the value of the mass-loss rate would not be affected.

Koter, Alex DE↗

Farby-Perot observations and new models of the HH 47A and HH 47D bow shocks

We present new models for the HH 47A and HH 47D bow shocks based on line flux and velocity maps obtained with an imaging Fabry-Perot spectrometer. We confirm that HH 47A and HH 47D each show a bow shock/Mach disk morphology, and that velocity variability in the outflow can account for the observed structures. While it was suggested a decade ago that the inner working surface HH 47A appears to be traveling into the wake of HH 47D, we find kinematic evidence that the outer bow shock HH 47D is also not the primary ejection event in the outflow but follows in the wake of previously ejected material. By comparing the observed line ratios and line profiles to those predicted by our bow shock models, we find that both bow shocks have substantially lower shock velocities than their space motions would imply, and that the emission from each bow shock is systematically blueshifted from the rest-frame velocity of the ambient emission, indicating a comoving preshock medium. We derive kinematic ages of approximately 1150 yr for HH 47D and approximately 550 yr for HH 47A, which implies that the stellar driving source may undergo repetitive eruptions similar to FU Orionis-type outbursts every several hundred years. This timescale is similar to estimates made by Reipurth and collaborators for the separation between major outbursts in the HH 34 and HH 111 stellar jets.

Morse, Jon A.↗

Comparisons of a standard galaxy model with stellar observations in five fields

Modern data on the distribution of stellar colors and on the number of stars as a function of apparent magnitude in five directions in the Galaxy are analyzed. It is found that the standard model is consistent with all the available data. Detailed comparisons with the data for five separate fields are presented. The bright end of the spheroid luminosity function and the blue tip of the spheroid horizontal branch are analyzed. The allowed range of the disk scale heights and of fluctuations in the volume density is determined, and a lower limit is set on the disk scale length. Calculations based on the thick disk model of Gilmore and Reid (1983) are presented.

Bahcall, J. N.↗

Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer Modeling of Lightning Observed in Galileo Images of Jupiter

We study lightning on Jupiter and the clouds illuminated by the lightning using images taken by the Galileo orbiter. The Galileo images have a resolution of 25 km/pixel and axe able to resolve the shape of the single lightning spots in the images, which have full widths at half the maximum intensity in the range of 90-160 km. We compare the measured lightning flash images with simulated images produced by our ED Monte Carlo light-scattering model. The model calculates Monte Carlo scattering of photons in a ED opacity distribution. During each scattering event, light is partially absorbed. The new direction of the photon after scattering is chosen according to a Henyey-Greenstein phase function. An image from each direction is produced by accumulating photons emerging from the cloud in a small range (bins) of emission angles. Lightning bolts are modeled either as points or vertical lines. Our results suggest that some of the observed scattering patterns axe produced in a 3-D cloud rather than in a plane-parallel cloud layer. Lightning is estimated to occur at least as deep as the bottom of the expected water cloud. For the six cases studied, we find that the clouds above the lightning are optically thick (tau > 5). Jovian flashes are more regular and circular than the largest terrestrial flashes observed from space. On Jupiter there is nothing equivalent to the 30-40-km horizontal flashes which axe seen on Earth.

Dyudine, U. A.↗

Plumes and Blooms: Observations, Analysis and Modeling for SIMBIOS

The goal of the Plumes and Blooms (PnB) project is to develop, validate and apply to imagery state-of-theart ocean color algorithms for quantifying sediment plumes and phytoplankton blooms for the Case I1 environment of the Santa Barbara Channel. We conduct monthly to twice-monthly transect observations across the Santa Barbara Channel to develop an algorithm development and product validation data set. The PnB field program started in the summer of 1996. At each of the 7 PnB stations, a complete verification bio-geo-optical data set is collected. Included are redundant measures of apparent optical properties (remote sensing reflectance and diffuse attenuation spectra), as well as in situ profiles of spectral absorption, beam attenuation and backscattering coefficients. Water samples are analyzed for component in vivo absorption spectra, fluorometric chlorophyll, phytoplankton pigment (by the SDSU CHORS laboratory), and inorganic nutrient concentrations (Table 1). A primary goal is to use the PnB field data set to objectively tune semi-analytical models of ocean color for this site and apply them using available satellite imagery (SeaWiFS and MODIS). In support of this goal, we have also been addressing SeaWiFS ocean color and AVHRR SST imagery (Otero and Siegel, 2003). We also are using the PnB data set to address time/space variability of water masses in the Santa Barbara Channel and its relationship to the 1997/1998 El Niiio. However, the comparison between PnB field observations and satellite estimates of primary products has been disappointing. We find that field estimates of water-leaving radiance, LwN(h), correspond poorly to satellite estimates for both SeaWiFS and MODIS local area coverage imagery. We believe this is due to poor atmospheric correction due to complex mixtures of aerosol types found in these near-coastal regions. Last, we remain active in outreach activities.

Siegel, D. A.↗

Obliquity, Ice Sheets, and Layered Sediments on Mars: What Spacecraft Observations and Climate Models are Telling Us

The Mars Odyssey Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) data present a quandary: On the one hand, large deposits of (inferred) water ice are located where thermal models suggest they would form and best be protected, e.g., if deposited during periods of higher obliquity. On the other hand, the volume mixing ratios (approx. 70%) are so high that diffusive deposition of water in regolith pore space (which is the process assumed by these models) cannot be the primary formation mechanism. Furthermore, given that the water is inferred to be so close to the surface (less than a few 10's of cm's), it must be in communication with the atmosphere on time scales that are geologically relatively short (10(exp 3)-10(exp 6) years); therefore the water cannot be archaic. Considering the GRS data, images of mantled, fretted, and disaggregated terrain, and new climate modeling of Mars orbital cycles, we are led to an alternate conclusion about the ice deposits: that they form as subaerial ice sheets. This scenario not only provides a simple explanation for these observations, but may also help explain the formation of globally distributed, sedimentary layered deposits.

Richardson, M. I.↗

The Brewer–Dobson Circulation in CMIP6

The Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a key feature of the stratosphere that models need to accurately represent in order to simulate surface climate variability and change adequately. For the first time, the Climate Model Intercomparison Project includes in its phase 6 (CMIP6) a set of diagnostics that allow for careful evaluation of the BDC. Here, the BDC is evaluated against observations and reanalyses using historical simulations. CMIP6 results confirm the well-known inconsistency in the sign of BDC trends between observations and models in the middle and upper stratosphere. Nevertheless, the large uncertainty in the observational trend estimates opens the door to compatibility. In particular, when accounting for the limited sampling of the observations, model and observational trend error bars overlap in 40 % of the simulations with available output. The increasing CO2 simulations feature an acceleration of the BDC but reveal a large spread in the middle-to-upper stratospheric trends, possibly related to the parameterized gravity wave forcing. The very close connection between the shallow branch of the residual circulation and surface temperature is highlighted, which is absent in the deep branch. The trends in mean age of air are shown to be more robust throughout the stratosphere than those in the residual circulation.

Brewer–Dobson circulation↗