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NASA NTRS2011

High Resolution Rapid Response Observations of Compact Radio Sources with the Ceduna Hobart Interferometer (CHI)

Context. Frequent, simultaneous observations across the electromagnetic spectrum are essential to the study of a range of astrophysical phenomena including Active Galactic Nuclei. A key tool of such studies is the ability to observe an object when it flares i.e. exhibits a rapid and significant increase in its flux density. Aims. We describe the specific observational procedures and the calibration techniques that have been developed and tested to create a single baseline radio interferometer. that can rapidly observe a flaring object. This is the only facility that is dedicated to rapid high resolution radio observations of an object south of -30 degrees declination. An immediate application is to provide rapid contemporaneous radio coverage of AGN flaring at y-ray frequencies detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. Methods. A single baseline interferometer was formed with radio telescopes in Hobart, Tasmania and Ceduna, South Australia. A software correlator was set up at the University of Tasmania to correlate these data. Results. Measurements of the flux densities of flaring objects can be made using our observing strategy within half an hour of a triggering event. These observations can be calibrated with amplitude errors better than 20%. Lower limits to the brightness temperatures of the sources can also be calculated using CHI. Key words. instrumentation:interferometers - galaxies:active - galaxies:jets - galaxies:nuclei quasars:general gamma rays:galaxies- 1.

Blanchard, Jay M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Thermal Properties and Evolution of a Coronal Cavity as Observed by the X-Ray Telescope on Hinode

Coronal cavities are voids in coronal emission often observed above high latitude filament channels. sometimes, these cavities have areas of bright x-ray emission in their centers (i.e. Hudson et al 1999). In this study, we use data from the x-ray Telescope (XRT) on Hinode to examine the thermal emission properties of a cavity observed during July 2008 that contains bright x-ray emission in its center. using ratios of XRT filters, we find evidence for elevated temperatures in the cavity center. The area of elevated temperature evolves from a ring-shaped structure at the be~inning of the observation, to an elongated structure two days later, finally appearing as a compact round source four days after the initial observation. We use a morphological model to fit the cavity emission, and find that a uniform structure running through the cavity does not fit the observations well. Instead, the observations are reproduced by modeling several short cavity "cores" with different parameters on different days. These changing core parameters may be due to some observed activity heating different parts of the cavity core at different times. We also find that core temperatures of 1.75 MK, 1.7 MK and 2.25 MK (for 19 July, 21 July and 23 July, respectively) in the model lead to structures that are consistent with the data, and that line-of-sight effects serve to lower the effective temperature derived from the filter ratio. page

Reeves, K. K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Thermal Properties of A Solar Coronal Cavity Observed with the X-Ray Telescope on Hinode

Coronal cavities are voids in coronal emission often observed above high latitude filament channels. Sometimes, these cavities have areas of bright X-ray emission in their centers. In this study, we use data from the X-ray Telescope (XRT) on the Hinode satellite to examine the thermal emission properties of a cavity observed during July 2008 that contains bright X-ray emission in its center. Using ratios of XRT filters, we find evidence for elevated temperatures in the cavity center. The area of elevated temperature evolves from a ring-shaped structure at the beginning of the observation, to an elongated structure two days later, finally appearing as a compact round source four days after the initial observation. We use a morphological model to fit the cavity emission, and find that a uniform structure running through the cavity does not fit the observations well. Instead, the observations are reproduced by modeling several short cylindrical cavity "cores" with different parameters on different days. These changing core parameters may be due to some observed activity heating different parts of the cavity core at different times. We find that core temperatures of 1.75 MK, 1.7 MK and 2.0 MK (for July 19, July 21 and July 23, respectively) in the model lead to structures that are consistent with the data, and that line-of-sight effects serve to lower the effective temperature derived from the filter ratio.

Reeves, Katherine K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using Total Lightning Observations to Enhance Lightning Safety

Lightning is often the underrated threat faced by the public when it comes to dangerous weather phenomena. Typically, larger scale events such as floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes receive the vast majority of attention by both the general population and the media. This comes from the fact that these phenomena are large, longer lasting, can impact a large swath of society at one time, and are dangerous events. The threat of lightning is far more isolated on a case by case basis, although millions of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes hit this United States each year. While attention is given to larger meteorological events, lightning is the second leading cause of weather related deaths in the United States. This information raises the question of what steps can be taken to improve lightning safety. Already, the meteorological community s understanding of lightning has increased over the last 20 years. Lightning safety is now better addressed with the National Weather Service s access to the National Lightning Detection Network data and enhanced wording in their severe weather warnings. Also, local groups and organizations are working to improve public awareness of lightning safety with easy phrases to remember, such as "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors." The impacts can be seen in the greater array of contingency plans, from airports to sports stadiums, addressing the threat of lightning. Improvements can still be made and newer technologies may offer new tools as we look towards the future. One of these tools is a network of sensors called a lightning mapping array (LMA). Several of these networks exist across the United States. NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), part of the Marshall Spaceflight Center, has access to three of these networks from Huntsville, Alabama, the Kennedy Space Center, and Washington D.C. The SPoRT program s mission is to help transition unique products and observations into the operational forecast environment. SPoRT has been collaborating with the Huntsville National Weather Service (NWS) Office since 2003 and has since included several other offices to better implement LMA observations into real-time applications. Much of that work has focused on the LMA s ability to detect intra-cloud lightning in addition to cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Combined, these observations are called total lightning. With total lightning observations, NWS offices can enhance their situational awareness and improve severe weather warnings. Just as importantly, the observed intra-cloud flashes often precede the first cloud-to-ground strike by a few minutes. SPoRT and its partner NWS offices are working to develop visualizations and applications to better utilize these data. However, there is a drawback. The LMAs have a short range of no more than 200 km. This is being addressed with the next generation geostationary satellite, GOES-R, which will boast the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). SPoRT, in conjunction with NOAA s GOES-R Proving Ground, is working to prepare the end user community for the GLM era using the LMA observations as a demonstration tool. Working collaboratively with our NWS partners, SPoRT is working to determine how best to integrate these future observations to improve both severe storm warnings and lightning safety.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reconciling Simulated and Observed Views of Clouds: MODIS, ISCCP, and the Limits of Instrument Simulators in Climate Models

The properties of clouds that may be observed by satellite instruments, such as optical depth and cloud top pressure, are only loosely related to the way clouds are represented in models of the atmosphere. One way to bridge this gap is through "instrument simulators," diagnostic tools that map the model representation to synthetic observations so that differences between simulator output and observations can be interpreted unambiguously as model error. But simulators may themselves be restricted by limited information available from the host model or by internal assumptions. This work examines the extent to which instrument simulators are able to capture essential differences between MODIS and ISCCP, two similar but independent estimates of cloud properties. We focus on the stark differences between MODIS and ISCCP observations of total cloudiness and the distribution of cloud optical thickness can be traced to different approaches to marginal pixels, which MODIS excludes and ISCCP treats as homogeneous. These pixels, which likely contain broken clouds, cover about 15% of the planet and contain almost all of the optically thinnest clouds observed by either instrument. Instrument simulators can not reproduce these differences because the host model does not consider unresolved spatial scales and so can not produce broken pixels. Nonetheless, MODIS and ISCCP observation are consistent for all but the optically-thinnest clouds, and models can be robustly evaluated using instrument simulators by excluding ambiguous observations.

Pincus, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Parameter Observation and Detection of Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas

The recent large earthquakes (M9.0 Tohoku, 03/2011; M7.0 Haiti, 01/2010; M6.7 L Aquila, 04/2008; and M7.9 Wenchuan 05/2008) have renewed interest in pre-anomalous seismic signals associated with them. Recent workshops (DEMETER 2006, 2011 and VESTO 2009 ) have shown that there were precursory atmospheric /ionospheric signals observed in space prior to these events. Our initial results indicate that no single pre-earthquake observation (seismic, magnetic field, electric field, thermal infrared [TIR], or GPS/TEC) can provide a consistent and successful global scale early warning. This is most likely due to complexity and chaotic nature of earthquakes and the limitation in existing ground (temporal/spatial) and global satellite observations. In this study we analyze preseismic temporal and spatial variations (gas/radon counting rate, atmospheric temperature and humidity change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) which we propose occur before the onset of major earthquakes:. We propose an Integrated Space -- Terrestrial Framework (ISTF), as a different approach for revealing pre-earthquake phenomena in seismically active areas. ISTF is a sensor web of a coordinated observation infrastructure employing multiple sensors that are distributed on one or more platforms; data from satellite sensors (Terra, Aqua, POES, DEMETER and others) and ground observations, e.g., Global Positioning System, Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). As a theoretical guide we use the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model to explain the generation of multiple earthquake precursors. Using our methodology, we evaluated retrospectively the signals preceding the most devastated earthquakes during 2005-2011. We observed a correlation between both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of these earthquakes. The second phase of our validation include systematic retrospective analysis for more than 100 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. Calculated false alarm ratio for the for the same month over the entire period of analysis (2003-2009) is less than 10% and was d as the earthquakes. The commonalities in detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies show that they may exist over both land and sea in regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries) Our results indicate that the ISTF model could provide a capability to observe pre-earthquake atmospheric/ionospheric signals by combining this information into a common framework.

Ouzounov, D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling

The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Submillimetric Spectroscopic Observations of Volatiles in Comet C-2004 Q2 (Machholz)

Submillimeter spectroscopic observations of comets provide an important tool for understanding their chemical composition and enable a taxonomic classification. Aims. We aim to determine the production rates of several parent- and product volatiles and the C-12/C-13 isotopic carbon ratio in the long-period comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz), which is likely to originate from the Oort Cloud. Methods. The line emission from several molecules in the coma was measured with high signal-to-noise ratio in January 2005 at heliocentric distance of 1.2 AU by means of high-resolution spectroscopic observations using the Submillimeter Telescope (SMT) at the Arizona Radio Observatory (ARO). Results. We have obtained production rates of several volatiles (CH3OH, HCN, H(sup 13)CN, HNC, H2CO, CO, and CS) by comparing the observed and simulated line-integrated intensities. We calculated the synthetic profiles using a radiative transfer code that includes collisions between neutrals and electrons, and the effects of radiative pumping of the fundamental vibrational levels by solar infrared radiation. Furthermore, multiline observations of the CH3OH J = 7-6 series allow us to estimate the rotational temperature using the rotation diagram technique. We find that the CH3OH population distribution of the levels sampled by these lines can be described by a rotational temperature of 40 +/- 3 K. Derived mixing ratios relative to hydrogen cyanide are CO/CH3OH/H2CO/CS/HNC/HC-13N/HCN= 30.9/24.6/4.8/0.57/0.031/0.013/1 assuming a pointing offset of 8" due to the uncertain ephemeris at the time of the observations and the telescope pointing error. Conclusions. The measured relative molecular abundances in C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) are between low- to typical values of those obtained in Oort Cloud comets, suggesting that it has visited the inner solar system previously and undergone thermal processing. The HNC/HCN abundance ratio of approx 3.1% is comparable to that found in other comets, accounting for the dependence on the heliocentric distance, and could possibly be explained by ion-molecule chemical processes in the low-temperature atmosphere. From a tentative HC-13N detection, the measured value of 97 +/- 30 for the HC-12N/HC-13N isotopologue pair is consistent with a telluric value. The outgassing variability observed in the HCN production rates over a period of two hours is consistent with the rotation of the nucleus derived using different observational techniques.

chemical composition↗
NASA NTRS2014

Bi-static Optical Observations of GEO Objects

A bi-static study of objects at Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) was conducted using two ground-based wide-field optical telescopes. The University of Michigan's 0.6-m MODEST (Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope) located at the Cerro Tololo Inter- American Observatory in Chile was employed in a series of coordinated observations with the U.S. Naval Observatory's (USNO) 1.3-m telescope at the USNO Flagstaff Station near Flagstaff, Arizona, USA. The goals of this project are twofold: (1) Obtain optical distances to known and unknown objects at GEO from the difference in the observed topocentric position of objects measured with respect to a reference star frame. The distance can be derived directly from these measurements, and is independent of any orbital solution. The wide geographical separation of these two telescopes means that the parallax difference is larger than ten degrees, and (2) Compare optical photometry in similar filters of GEO objects taken during the same time period from the two sites. The object's illuminated surfaces presented different angles of reflected sunlight to the two telescopes.During a four hour period on the night.of 22 February 2014 (UT), coordinated observations were obtained for eight different GEO positions. Each coordinated observation sequence was started on the hour or half-hour, and was selected to ensure the same cataloged GEO object was available in the field of view of both telescopes during the thirty minute observing sequence. GEO objects were chosen to be both controlled and uncontrolled at a range of orbital inclinations, and the objects were not tracked. Instead both telescopes were operated with all drives off in GEO survey mode to discover un-cataloged objects at GEO. The initial results from this proof-of-concept observing run will be presented, with the intent of laying the foundation for future large-scale bi-static observing campaigns of the GEO regime.

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2012

Lunar Pickup Ions Observed by ARTEMIS: Spatial and Temporal Distribution and Constraints on Species and Source Locations

ARTEMIS observes pickup ions around the Moon, at distances of up to 20,000 km from the surface. The observed ions form a plume with a narrow spatial and angular extent, generally seen in a single energy/angle bin of the ESA instrument. Though ARTEMIS has no mass resolution capability, we can utilize the analytically describable characteristics of pickup ion trajectories to constrain the possible ion masses that can reach the spacecraft at the observation location in the correct energy/angle bin. We find that most of the observations are consistent with a mass range of approx. 20-45 amu, with a smaller fraction consistent with higher masses, and very few consistent with masses below 15 amu. With the assumption that the highest fluxes of pickup ions come from near the surface, the observations favor mass ranges of approx. 20-24 and approx. 36-40 amu. Although many of the observations have properties consistent with a surface or near-surface release of ions, some do not, suggesting that at least some of the observed ions have an exospheric source. Of all the proposed sources for ions and neutrals about the Moon, the pickup ion flux measured by ARTEMIS correlates best with the solar wind proton flux, indicating that sputtering plays a key role in either directly producing ions from the surface, or producing neutrals that subsequently become ionized.

Artemis↗
NASA NTRS2014

Physical Characterization of Warm Spitzer-observed Near-Earth Objects

Near-infrared spectroscopy of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) connects diagnostic spectral features to specific surface mineralogies. The combination of spectroscopy with albedos and diameters derived from thermal infrared observations can increase the scientific return beyond that of the individual datasets. For instance, some taxonomic classes can be separated into distinct compositional groupings with albedo and different mineralogies with similar albedos can be distinguished with spectroscopy. To that end, we have completed a spectroscopic observing campaign to complement the ExploreNEOs Warm Spitzer program that obtained albedos and diameters of nearly 600 NEOs (Trilling et al., 2010). The spectroscopy campaign included visible and near-infrared observations of ExploreNEOs targets from various observatories. Here we present the results of observations using the low-resolution prism mode (approx. 0.7-2.5 microns) of the SpeX instrument on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). We also include near-infrared observations of Explore-NEOs targets from the MIT-UH-IRTF Joint Campaign for Spectral Reconnaissance. Our dataset includes near-infrared spectra of 187 ExploreNEOs targets (125 observations of 92 objects from our survey and 213 observations of 154 objects from the MIT survey). We identify a taxonomic class for each spectrum and use band parameter analysis to investigate the mineralogies for the S-, Q-, and V-complex objects. Our analysis suggests that for spectra that contain near-infrared data but lack the visible wavelength region, the Bus-DeMeo system misidentifies some S-types as Q-types. We find no correlation between spectral band parameters and ExploreNEOs albedos and diameters. We investigate the correlations of phase angle with band area ratio and near-infrared spectral slope. We find slightly negative Band Area Ratio (BAR) correlations with phase angle for Eros and Ivar, but a positive BAR correlation with phase angle for Ganymed.The results of our phase angle study are consistent with those of (Sanchez et al., 2012). We find evidence for spectral phase reddening for Eros, Ganymed, and Ivar. We identify the likely ordinary chondrite type analog for an appropriate subset of our sample. Our resulting proportions of H, L, and LL ordinary chondrites differ from those calculated for meteorite falls and in previous studies of ordinary chondrite-like NEOs.

composition↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Model Error↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter

In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Quantifying the Observability of CO2 Flux Uncertainty in Atmospheric CO2 Records Using Products from Nasa's Carbon Monitoring Flux Pilot Project

NASAs Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Pilot Project (FPP) was designed to better understand contemporary carbon fluxes by bringing together state-of-the art models with remote sensing datasets. Here we report on simulations using NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) which was used to evaluate the consistency of two different sets of observationally constrained land and ocean fluxes with atmospheric CO2 records. Despite the strong data constraint, the average difference in annual terrestrial biosphere flux between the two land (NASA Ames CASA and CASA-GFED) models is 1.7 Pg C for 2009-2010. Ocean models (NOBM and ECCO2-Darwin) differ by 35 in their global estimates of carbon flux with particularly strong disagreement in high latitudes. Based upon combinations of terrestrial and ocean fluxes, GEOS-5 reasonably simulated the seasonal cycle observed at northern hemisphere surface sites and by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) while the model struggled to simulate the seasonal cycle at southern hemisphere surface locations. Though GEOS-5 was able to reasonably reproduce the patterns of XCO2 observed by GOSAT, it struggled to reproduce these aspects of AIRS observations. Despite large differences between land and ocean flux estimates, resulting differences in atmospheric mixing ratio were small, typically less than 5 ppmv at the surface and 3 ppmv in the XCO2 column. A statistical analysis based on the variability of observations shows that flux differences of these magnitudes are difficult to distinguish from natural variability, regardless of measurement platform.

FPP↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Precipitation Simulated by Seven SCMs against the ARM Observations at the SGP Site

This study evaluates the performances of seven single-column models (SCMs) by comparing simulated surface precipitation with observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from January 1999 to December 2001. Results show that although most SCMs can reproduce the observed precipitation reasonably well, there are significant and interesting differences in their details. In the cold season, the model-observation differences in the frequency and mean intensity of rain events tend to compensate each other for most SCMs. In the warm season, most SCMs produce more rain events in daytime than in nighttime, whereas the observations have more rain events in nighttime. The mean intensities of rain events in these SCMs are much stronger in daytime, but weaker in nighttime, than the observations. The higher frequency of rain events during warm-season daytime in most SCMs is related to the fact that most SCMs produce a spurious precipitation peak around the regime of weak vertical motions but rich in moisture content. The models also show distinct biases between nighttime and daytime in simulating significant rain events. In nighttime, all the SCMs have a lower frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations for both seasons. In daytime, most SCMs have a higher frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations, especially in the warm season. Further analysis reveals distinct meteorological backgrounds for large underestimation and overestimation events. The former occur in the strong ascending regimes with negative low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection, whereas the latter occur in the weak or moderate ascending regimes with positive low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection.

Model comparison↗
NASA NTRS2015

Preliminary Flight Deck Observations During Flight in High Ice Water Content Conditions

In 2006, Mason et al. identified common observations that occurred in engine power-loss events attributed to flight in high concentrations of ice crystals. Observations included light to moderate turbulence, precipitation on the windscreen (often reported as rain), aircraft total temperature anomalies, lack of significant airframe icing, and no flight radar echoes at the location and altitude of the engine event. Since 2006, Mason et al. and others have collected information from pilots who experienced engine power-loss events via interviews and questionnaires to substantiate earlier observations and support event analyses. In 2011, Mason and Grzych reported that vertical acceleration data showed increases in turbulence prior to engine events, although the turbulence was usually light to moderate and not unique to high ice water content (HIWC) clouds. Mason concluded that the observation of rain on the windscreen was due to melting of ice high concentrations of ice crystals on the windscreen, coalescing into drops. Mason also reported that these pilot observations of rain on the windscreen were varied. Many pilots indicated no rain was observed, while others observed moderate rain with unique impact sounds. Mason concluded that the variation in the reports may be due to variation in the ice concentration, particle size, and temperature.

Wind Tunnel Tests↗
NASA NTRS2016

Interpreting the Ultraviolet Aerosol Index Observed with the OMI Satellite Instrument to Understand Absorption by Organic Aerosols: Implications for Atmospheric Oxidation and Direct Radiative Effects

Satellite observations of the ultraviolet aerosol index (UVAI) are sensitive to absorption of solar radiation by aerosols; this absorption affects photolysis frequencies and radiative forcing. We develop a global simulation of the UVAI using the 3-D chemical transport model GEOSChem coupled with the Vector Linearized Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer model (VLIDORT). The simulation is applied to interpret UVAI observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for the year 2007. Simulated and observed values are highly consistent in regions where mineral dust dominates the UVAI, but a large negative bias (-0.32 to -0.97) exists between simulated and observed values in biomass burning regions. We determine effective optical properties for absorbing organic aerosol, known as brown carbon (BrC), and implement them into GEOS-Chem to better represent observed UVAI values over biomass burning regions. The inclusion of absorbing BrC decreases the mean bias between simulated and OMI UVAI values from -0.57 to -0.09 over West Africa in January, from -0.32 to +0.0002 over South Asia in April, from -0.97 to -0.22 over southern Africa in July, and from -0.50 to +0.33 over South America in September. The spectral dependence of absorption after including BrC in the model is broadly consistent with reported observations for biomass burning aerosol, with absorbing Angstrom exponent (AAE) values ranging from 2.9 in the ultraviolet (UV) to 1.3 across the UV-Near IR spectrum. We assess the effect of the additional UV absorption by BrC on atmospheric photochemistry by examining tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations in GEOS-Chem. The inclusion of BrC decreases OH by up to 30% over South America in September, up to 20% over southern Africa in July, and up to 15% over other biomass burning regions. Global annual mean OH concentrations in GEOS-Chem decrease due to the presence of absorbing BrC, increasing the methyl chloroform lifetime from 5.62 to 5.68 years, thus reducing the bias against observed values. We calculate the direct radiative effect (DRE) of BrC using GEOS-Chem coupled with the radiative transfer model RRTMG (GC-RT). Treating organic aerosol as containing more strongly absorbing BrC changes the global annual mean all-sky top of atmosphere (TOA) DRE by +0.03Wm(exp -2) and all-sky surface DRE by -0.08Wm(exp -2). Regional changes of up to +0.3Wm(exp -2) at TOA and down to -1.5Wm(exp -2) at the surface are found over major biomass burning regions.

Air Pollution↗