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At least 613 records · Page 34

ACRRF High-Bay Dose Calculations using MCNP (Part A)

Analytical tools and models have been developed as a starting point for directly assessing dose in the Annular Core Research Reactor Facility (ACRRF) due to reactor operation. Key results include peak dose along the Central Cavity (CC) centerline (beamline) at the cavity level, dose throughout the High-Bay (HB), and dose on the facility roof for partially-shielded reactor operation where the 4” insert is removed from the CC Shield Plug (SP). Model results in the beamline are benchmarked against measured doses from passive dosimetry evaluations. Personnel total (neutron and gamma) dose in the ACRRF HB is calculated using Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP). Various CC and SP configurations are analyzed, including unshielded (no SP) and partially shielded (SP installed but 4” insert removed). Novel application of Variance Reduction (VR) techniques, namely the Surface Source Write (SSW) and Surface Source Read (SSR) capabilities in MCNP, enable impressive resolution (in a Monte Carlo modeling sense) of dose throughout much the facility. The VR techniques reduce stochastic error for challenging tallies, with more advanced techniques explored in the companion to this report (Part B) [1]. Supplementary studies (including a verification analysis) and pedagogic evaluations in Part B involve neutron spectra, angular distributions, and the dose impact of facility characteristics. With the SP 4” insert removed and the Lead-Boron (44”) Bucket (LB–44) in the reactor cavity, Total Effective Dose (TED) within the CC beamline is ≈140 rem per 300 MJ of reactor yield (or 3900 rem per hour at 100% Steady-State (SS) power). With no SP (unshielded) and a Free-Field (FF) cavity, TED within the beamline is ≈610 rem per 300 MJ (or 17000 rem per hour at 100% SS power). Due to the predicted collimation of radiation by the reactor pool (and partial SP, if present), beamline dose is much greater than the scattered radiation field surrounding the cavity and reactor tank. Comparisons are made to beamline dosimetry measurements to validate the model. Model predictions agree reasonably well (⪅10%) with measured quantities of neutron fluence, gamma fluence, and spectral metrics. Away from the beamline, comparisons made to previous dose measurements in the HB agreement within an order of magnitude.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Data-Driven Reduced-Order Modeling of Convective Heat Transfer in Porous Media

This work presents a data-driven Reduced-Order Model (ROM) for parametric convective heat transfer problems in porous media. The intrusive Proper Orthogonal Decomposition aided Reduced-Basis (POD-RB) technique is employed to reduce the porous medium formulation of the incompressible Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations coupled with heat transfer. Instead of resolving the exact flow configuration with high fidelity, the porous medium formulation solves a homogenized flow in which the fluid-structure interactions are captured via volumetric flow resistances with nonlinear, semi-empirical friction correlations. A supremizer approach is implemented for the stabilization of the reduced fluid dynamics equations. The reduced nonlinear flow resistances are treated using the Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM), while the turbulent eddy viscosity and diffusivity are approximated by adopting a Radial Basis Function (RBF) interpolation-based approach. The proposed method is tested using a 2D numerical model of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR), which involves the simulation of both clean and porous medium regions in the same domain. For the steady-state example, five model parameters are considered to be uncertain: the magnitude of the pumping force, the external coolant temperature, the heat transfer coefficient, the thermal expansion coefficient, and the Prandtl number. For transient scenarios, on the other hand, the coastdown-time of the pump is the only uncertain parameter. The results indicate that the POD-RB-ROMs are suitable for the reduction of similar problems. The relative L2 errors are below 3.34% for every field of interest for all cases analyzed, while the speedup factors vary between 54 (transient) and 40,000 (steady-state).

German, Péter (ORCID:0000000307285283)↗

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Confinement and Processing Can Alter the Morphology and Periodicity of Bottlebrush Block Copolymers in Thin Films

Bottlebrush block copolymers (BBCPs) are intriguing architectural variations on linear BCPs with highly tunable structure. Confinement can have a significant impact on polymer assembly, giving rise to changes in morphology, assembly kinetics, and properties like the glass transition. Given that confinement leads to significant changes in the persistence length of bottlebrush homopolymers, it is reasonable to expect that BBCPs will see significant changes in their structure and periodicity relative to the bulk morphology. Understanding how confinement influences assembly will be important for designing BBCPs for thin film applications including membranes, integrated photonic structures, and potentially BCP lithography. In this work, in order to study the effects of confinement on BBCP conformation and morphology, a blade coating was used to prepare films with continuous variation in film thickness. Unlike thin films of linear BCPs, islands/holes were not observed, and instead mixtures of parallel and perpendicular morphologies emerge after annealing. The lamellar periodicity ($L_0$) of the morphologies is found to be thickness dependent, increasing $L_0$ with decreasing film thickness for blade coated films. Films coated out of tetrahydrofuran (THF) resulted in a single well-defined lamellar periodicity, verified through atomic force microscopy (AFM) and grazing incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS), which increases dramatically from the bulk value (30.6 nm) and continues to increase as the film thickness decreases. The largest observed $L_0$ was 65.5 nm, and this closely approaches the estimated upper limit of 67 nm corresponding to a fully extended backbone in a bilayer arrangement. Films coated out of propylene glycol methyl ether acetate (PGMEA) resulted in a mixture of perpendicular lamellae and a smaller, likely cylindrical morphology. The lamellar portion of the film shows the same thickness dependence as the lamellae observed in the THF coated films. The scaling of the lamellar $L_0$ with respect to film thickness follows predictions for confined semiflexible polymers with weak excluded volume interactions and can be related to models for confinement of DNA. Spin coated films shows the same reduction in periodicity, although at very different film thicknesses. This result suggests that the material has shallow free-energy barriers to transitioning between different $L_0$ and morphologies, a property that could be taken advantage of for patterning diverse structures with a single material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Models and Strategies for Optimal Demand Side Management in the Chemical Industries

Deregulation and the increase of renewable electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaics have transformed the U.S. electricity market. Economic and environmental benefits notwithstanding, the presence of renewables has increased variability and uncertainty on the supply side of the grid. Managing demand, rather than generation – a strategy referred to as “demand response (DR)” – is an attractive approach for mitigating this imbalance. DR efforts aim to reduce electricity usage during peak demand times, lessening stress on the grid. Industrial users are particularly attractive entities for DR participation since they present large, localized loads that can provide significant relief on grid demand and –unlike other large loads, such as buildings – are minimally dependent on human needs and preferences. In this project, we accomplished three main objectives. (1) We developed data-driven low-order DR scheduling-relevant dynamic models of chemical processes. Concurrently, we studied the formulation and solution of the associated optimal DR production scheduling problems. (a) A prototype air separation unit (ASU) model was used to generate simulated operating data for initial modeling efforts, which enabled the later use of industrial data for data-driven modeling. (b) We utilized Hammerstein-Wiener (HW) and Finite Step Response (FSR) models to represent nonlinear plant dynamics. (c) The HW models were linearized using exact linearization so they could potentially be embedded in power system models, which are formulated as mixed integer linear programs (MILPs). (d) We solved DR optimization problems under uncertainty and found that even naïve predictions of electricity price and product demand led to significant cost savings benefits. (2) Our DR scheduling optimization problem formulations are amenable to real-time solution. (a) We utilized Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) to efficiently solve the optimization problem by decoupling subproblems linked by complicating constraints. (b) We have achieved computation times for the 3-day DR scheduling problem of an ASU as low as 1.88 minutes. (3) Our representations of the DR behavior of chemical process as grid-level batteries were embedded in power system models. (a) For a small-scale grid, we found that incorporating the dynamics of the chemical plant in the optimal power flow calculations resulted in better resource management leading to up to 15% and 46% cost reduction for the grid and chemical plant operations, respectively, during periods of power line congestion. We have published several works dedicated to modeling and solving DR optimization problems from the user side. These were published in top peer-reviewed journals and are summarized in this report. The most recent work (and papers in preparation) considers DR scheduling from the grid side. Future efforts will consider networked plants (e.g., air separation units operating on a common pipeline) for DR participation, which is expected to amplify the capabilities of industrial DR participants to perform load-shifting. Our consideration of uncertainty in DR has inspired future directions in this area as well: we plan to develop multistage methods to fully account for the effects of uncertainty in DR scheduling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Decarbonization in Climate Resilience Planning

Recent executive orders such as E.O. 14008 require federal agencies to address climate change by enhancing resilience and reducing emissions through decarbonization. Traditionally, federal agencies require their sites to develop preparedness plans, such as continuity of operations plans and/or more comprehensive resilience plans. When climate change is included in these plans, the focus tends to be on climate adaptation solutions such as hardening infrastructure and not on climate mitigation through decarbonization. However, with the ambitious emission reductions targets set out by the federal government, it is essential to provide resources and tools to support energy and water managers in achieving decarbonization goals. To achieve this, there is a need for decarbonization to be incorporated into existing resilience planning processes. We discuss a method of incorporating a decarbonization analysis into an existing resilience planning process to create a holistic framework that considers climate adaptation, climate mitigation, and risk reduction priorities when developing and prioritizing solutions for federal sites. Site managers and decision makers must be aware of potential opportunities and trade-offs in meeting energy and water performance goals, emission reductions goals, and climate adaptation goals when developing technological, operational, or institutional resilience solutions. By combining these processes, energy and water managers can minimize the additional level of effort to ensure that their sites are not only able to withstand climate-related energy and water disruptions, but also contribute to climate mitigation. A holistic approach can help federal agencies serve as a model for incorporating decarbonization strategies into site-level resilience planning for the rest of the nation.

Elliott, Douglas B.↗

A semi-Lagrangian method for detecting and tracking deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite observations

Automated methods for the detection and tracking of deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite imagery have a vital role in both the forecasting of severe storms and research into their behaviour. Studying the interactions and feedbacks between multiple deep convective clouds (DCC), however, poses a challenge for existing algorithms due to the necessary compromise between false detection and missed detection errors. We utilise an optical flow method to determine the motion of deep convective clouds in GOES-16 ABI imagery in order to construct a semi-Lagrangian framework for the motion of the cloud field, independently of the detection and tracking of cloud objects. The semi-Lagrangian framework allows severe storms to be simultaneously detected and tracked in both spatial and temporal dimensions. For the purpose of this framework we have developed a novel Lagrangian convolution method and a number of novel implementations of morphological image operations that account for the motion of observed objects. These novel methods allow the accurate extension of computer vision techniques to the temporal domain for moving objects such as DCCs. By combining this framework with existing methods for detecting DCCs (including detection of growing cores through cloud top cooling and detection of anvil clouds using brightness temperature), we show that the novel framework enables reductions in errors due to both false and missed detections compared to any of the individual methods, reducing the need to compromise when compared with existing frameworks. The novel framework enables the continuous tracking of anvil clouds associated with detected deep convection after convective activity has stopped, enabling the study of the entire life cycle of DCCs and their associated anvils. Furthermore, we expect this framework to be applicable to a wide range of cases including the detection and tracking of low-level clouds and other atmospheric phenomena. In addition, this framework may be used to combine observations from multiple sources, including satellite observations, weather radar and reanalysis model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment

Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.

economics↗

Evaluating the benefits of kinetic Monte Carlo and microkinetic modeling for catalyst design studies in the presence of lateral interactions

Popular computational catalyst design strategies rely on the identification of reactivity descriptors, which can be used along with Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) and scaling relations as input to a microkinetic model (MKM) to make predictions for activity or selectivity trends. The main benefit of this approach is related to the inherent dimensionality reduction of the large material space to just a few catalyst descriptors. Conversely, it is well documented that a small set of descriptors is insufficient to capture the intricacies and complexities of a real catalytic system. The inclusion of coverage effects through lateral adsorbate-adsorbate interactions can narrow the gap between simplified descriptor predictions and real systems, but mean-field MKMs cannot properly account for local coverage effects. This shortcoming of the mean-field approximation can be rectified by switching to a lattice-based kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) method using cluster expansion representation of adsorbate–adsorbate lateral interactions. Using the prototypical CO oxidation reaction as an example, we critically evaluate the benefits of kMC over MKM in terms of trend predictions and computational cost when using only a small set of input parameters. After confirming that in the absence of lateral interactions the kMC and MKM approaches yield identical trends and mechanistic information, we observed substantial differences between the two kinetic models when lateral interactions were introduced. Here, the mean-field implementation applies coverage corrections directly to the descriptors, causing an artificial overprediction of the activity of strongly binding metals. In contrast, the cluster expansion in kMC implementation can differentiate among the highly active metals but it is very sensitive to the set of included interaction parameters. Considering that computational screening relies on a minimal set of descriptors, for which MKM makes reasonable trend predictions at a ca. three orders of magnitude lower computational cost than kMC, the MKM approach does provide a better entry point for computational catalyst design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Managing Subsurface Pressure Buildup and Interference in Commercial-Scale CO 2 Storage Project with Proximal Injection Wells

Large-scale decarbonization using carbon capture and storage (CCS) is likely to involve many commercial-scale CO 2 storage projects located in close proximity to each other. This close proximity raises concerns over pressure interference among the storage projects. Pressure interference between injection and storage efforts can reduce the practicable CO 2 storage resource and force wells to inject CO 2 at a lower rate to avoid the fracture pressure thresholds per United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI well regulations to preserve injection and confining zone integrity and potentially mitigate against inducing seismic activity. These analyses employ numerical full-physics reservoir modeling to evaluate how pressure buildup fronts and CO 2 plumes evolve under commercial-scale injection volumes of CO 2 in which multiple storage sites located in close proximity occur in tandem. The simulation models mimic injection at pseudo basin-scale and assume homogeneous saline formation(s) as storage targets with a pair of upper and lower homogeneous seal layer/s. These analyses specifically investigate the efficacy of two basin-wide reservoir pressure management strategies in addressing the technical challenges associated with pressure buildup and CO 2 plume commingling. The strategies explored include: 1) enlarging the area of injection well spacing (WS) and 2) storing CO 2 in a stacked sequence (SSS) of saline formations compared to a single formation. The storage and confining zones properties assumed were held common across the scenarios, unless specified otherwise. Analyses results show that after injecting 4 million tons per year for 30 years using 4 separate wells (each injecting 1 million metric tons per year), the radius of CO 2 plume extends to a mere 3 km or less from injection wells. Meanwhile, the radius of pressure buildup ranges on the order of tens to a few hundreds of kilometers, depending on the magnitude of pressure buildup threshold that one would use to define the front. CO 2 plume commingling from different injection wells appears to occur 50 years post-injection, especially under scenarios with narrowly spaced (i.e., < 5 km apart) injection well locations. Findings from sensitivity cases on the well spacing suggest that storage formations modeled would require different well spacing to avoid fracture pressure thresholds. For instance, modeled storage formations with high fracture gradients (i.e., 0.8 psi/ft) would need less than 5–km well spacing, whereas those with lower fracture gradients (i.e., 0.7 psi/ft) would need approximately 20–km well spacing, based on assumed modeling parameters. Under stacked injection, the pressure challenges (described above) still exist but are more alleviated due to distributing the same injection volume across more available reservoir volume. These analyses demonstrate that stacked-sequence storage can effectively address the challenges, while still providing the same target CO 2 storage volumes and allowing a large number of storage projects to be deployed in the same basin by better utilizing the available storage resource across different reservoir depths. Among cases modeled, the resulting pressure buildup front is most suppressed when each storage project distributes injection volumes over several wells, each of which injects a portion of the total CO 2 across the stacked sequence. This strategy results in the smallest CO 2 aerial footprint amongst scenarios evaluated but also shows the largest reduction in the pressure buildup at the top of perforation at the injection wells (upwards of approximately 42 percent compared to the commercial-scale single-formation storage), the result of which is crucial to maintain caprock integrity. The findings presented by this research draw attention to the importance of greater coordination among storage operators and regulatory stakeholders to foster the upscaling and deployment of CCS. These analyses provide insights into required decision-making when considering multi-project deployment in a shared basin. Because these analyses evaluate a very specific geologic situation, they bear further investigations across other geologic situations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Living Filter Designs for In-Line Recovery and Sorting of Critical materials

This project explored “bio-mining” of critical materials from electronic waste (E-waste) streams by developing living filters arrays capable of recovering these materials, focusing on the platinum group metals (PGMs) and rare earth elements (REEs). While highly toxic, E-waste is considered a valuable “urban mine” as it contains critical materials such as PGMs and REEs with orders of magnitude higher purity than the richest ores. The aim of the project was to: (1) develop mechanically robust, silk-based biomaterial filtration membranes that can capture REEs from dilute aqueous waste; (2) design and build 3D bioprinted living filters containing encapsulated electrochemically active bacteria (EAB) capable of bio-reducing PGMs and recovering them from waste streams; and (3) constructing combined living filter arrays using both components to efficiently capture REE and PGM from the same waste stream. The developed silk-based filtration membranes were self-assembled using silk-nanofibrils (SNFs) derived from silkworm (Bombyx mori) cocoons in conjunction with recombinant silk-elastin-like proteins (SELPs), which contained lanthanide-binding peptide tags (LBTs) with a high affinity and specificity towards REEs. These 100% biodegradable protein-based membranes were capable of recovering up to 85% of model REE ions (Tb 3+ ) filtered through the membrane, with ~50% recovery achieved in the presence of high concentrations (100X) of common interfering metals (Ca 2+ , Cu 2+ , Fe 3+ , Zn 2+ ). REE captured by the membranes were easily recovered by applying a low pH desorption buffer. The membranes also demonstrated substantial reusability, with only a 30% loss in binding capacity after 4 cycles of REE binding and recovery. To recover the PGMs, we created a bottom-up assembling strategy to construct a living hydrogel composed of a seamlessly integrated living catalyst, Shewanella loihica PV-4 (PV-4), for metal reduction, and their structural and functional linkers, bio-reduced graphene oxide (B-rGO). This hydrogel demonstrated a close to 90% recovery of model metal ions, Pd, from a simulated e-waste leaching stream with minimum-to-no biomass production. It’s also worth noting that the Pd recovery is initiated immediately after the introduction of living hydrogel, compared to conventional biocarriers that required start-up times within hours to days. Overall, these living hydrogels demonstrated superior bioactivity, structural integrity, and agility over existing biocarriers, which offers extensive opportunities to advance the biological metal recovery with unparallel efficiency, reduced energy/material consumption, and minimal environmental impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Segmental Dynamics and Vitrification in Associating Copolymer Melts: Role of Cluster Formation, Microdomains, and Cross-Linking

A microscopic statistical mechanical theory of the structure, self-assembly, and activated segmental relaxation is employed to study associating copolymer melts with high attractive sticker fractions, local clustering, and disordered microphase ordering. The stickers are dynamically pinned in a manner that does not affect equilibrium structure which mimics the much slower physical bond breaking process or postassembly cross-linking of sticky monomers. Local sticker clustering and microdomain spatial correlations significantly modify the activated relaxation of nonstickers and glass transition temperature, T g . A re-entrant glass-melting feature is predicted as sticker attraction strength is initially increased corresponding to a speed up of segmental relaxation, and hence reduction of T g relative to the cross-linked homopolymer network. A mechanistic analysis reveals three competing effects: a purely kinetic slowing down of nonstickers down due to cross-linking, disordering of the nonsticker local cage and weakening of effective forces they experience due to sticker physical clustering, and a longer range impact of microdomain scale correlations that results in nonmonotonic dynamical effects. At high enough attraction strength, a qualitative change emerges corresponding to a sticker fraction dependent elevation of T g , which eventually surpasses that of the cross-linked homopolymer network. Dynamically, the new physics arises from a complex evolution of the amplitude of the collective elastic field that dresses the large amplitude mobile segment hopping within a coupled local-nonlocal description of the alpha relaxation. Furthermore, the results are qualitatively consistent with recent experiments on associating PDMS and PPG telechelics of fixed sticker fraction but with chemically different end groups of variable attraction strengths. Finally, possible tests using simulation and the influence of material or model specific interaction potentials and other real world complications are discussed.

Copolymers↗

Optimized Carbon Fiber Intermediate Development to Enable High-Volume Manufacturing of Lightweight Automotive Composites

The ongoing pursuit of improved fuel economy and reduced greenhouse gas emissions has resulted in sustained interest for lightweight materials technologies. In this context, carbon fiber composites have captured the imagination of automotive engineers due to the potential to achieve substantial mass reduction when compared to traditional steel construction. That stated, the use of carbon fiber composites in automotive has been limited for the most part to premium supercars and other derivative platforms. In these cases, manufacturing costs are less of an obstacle to implementation, and the performance benefits of carbon fiber have enabled production of structures offering more than 50% weight savings. In practice, translating these low-volume demonstrations onto high-volume vehicle platforms has remained challenging. This can be attributed to several factors, with the absence of suitable high throughput production methodologies being a key impediment. To date, structural, crash critical components have relied upon manufacturing techniques born out of the aerospace industry. This has created a disconnect between automotive production systems that are accustomed to manufacturing multiple parts per minute and the aerospace technologies that have cycle times in the order of hours. Consequently, the focus of this project is the development of manufacturing process technology for carbon fiber composites that can support a mainstream vehicle program at an assumed throughput of 100,000 vehicles per year. In practice, this translates to a part-to-part cycle time of less than 3 minutes. Project participation included contributions from a broad range of academic, industrial and national lab partners. The primary scope of work, being the development of new carbon fiber epoxy compounds that are stable at room temperature and suited to high throughput automated processing. For project management, the work streams were divided into six key areas, with the lead organization in parentheses. • Carbon fiber/epoxy materials formulation development and scale up (Dow) • Simulation of discontinuous near isotropic meso-structure intermediates (Purdue) • Simulation of mechanical performance of compression molded components (Purdue) • Meso-Scale morphological analysis and correlation with structural performance (UTK) • Paint and adhesion durability analysis (MSU) • Demonstrator part design, prototype production, and validation testing (Ford). The primary goal at the commencement of the project was development of a chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound (SMC) that offered a three times improvement in tensile modulus over a comparable glass-based SMC. In addition to meeting mechanical performance targets, the resin kinetics were modified to achieve a processing cycle time of less than 3 minutes. Other critical-to-quality (CTQ) specifications were also stipulated to account for a broad range of materials and processing characteristics. To achieve the above, staff scientists at Dow Chemical created an extensive series of new epoxy blends for testing and validation. Throughout this development, a key challenge was attaining material performance goals without impacting processing behavior and paintability of finished components. The latter required a new internal mold release system being developed by Dow that was designed to complement the kinetics of the rapid cure epoxy. As a complement to work studies at the industrial partners, the teams from academia executed a series of analytical and experimental studies to investigate potential factors influencing CF-SMC performance. Unit cell models were developed to capture the meso-scale representations of the fiber matrix architecture. Results of this analysis and subsequent morphological investigations led to the design of a novel composite derivative comprising carbon fiber platelets embedded in an epoxy matrix; the platelet size and aspect ratio playing significant role in final composite properties. This approach was a departure from previous research in CF-SMC development whereby bulk filamentization or disassembly of the carbon fiber rovings had been considered the most effective means of achieving both fiber wet through and wet-out. As the course of the academia studies progressed, the aspect ratio of the fiber constituents was further optimized before finalizing material attributes and processing conditions. For the purposes of technology validation, the Ford team led a work stream devoted to the design, fabrication and testing of demonstration components. The carbon fiber SMC material has the potential to displace numerous stampings and castings on an automotive structure but ultimately vehicle closure applications were selected to showcase the abilities of the CF-SMC to achieve both mass reduction and business case for large complex structures. Using target properties established by the Dow staff scientists, the complete closure system for a full-size sedan decklid and a mid-size wagon liftgate were engineered. Prototypes for both applications were fabricated using production representative processing methods to allow for physical testing and performance validation of the CF-SMC structures. Following completion of a testing program that concluded with a FMVSS301 55 mph offset rear crash, the CF-SMC formulation was declared by the Ford team to have met all engineering requirements. To summarize, the joint development activities during this project led to significant technical breakthroughs and achievement of all milestones. The result was the development of a novel, tack-free carbon fiber molding compound that is suited to automated processing. This combined room temperature stability, fast cure kinetics, and internal mold release system facilitates cycle times that are conducive to high-volume production. The VORAFUSE M6400 successfully passed technology validation at Ford and is now eligible for consideration on future production commercial vehicle programs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Calibrating hypersonic turbulence flow models with the HIFiRE-1 experiment using data-driven machine-learned models.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model’s input parameters. Here we develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model’s response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Using Energy Storage-Based Grid Forming Inverters for Operational Reserve in Hybrid Diesel Microgrids

In remote arctic communities, where access to a bulk electrical grid interconnection is not available, the implementation of islanded microgrids has been the most viable way to produce and distribute electricity services to their inhabitants. Historically, these islanded grids have relied primarily on diesel generators or hydropower resources to supply the baseload. However, this practice can result in increased expense due to the high costs associated with fuel transportation and the significant amounts of on-site storage necessary when fuel transportation is unavailable during winter months. In order to mitigate this problem, arctic microgrids have started to transition to a hybrid-source operational mode by incorporating renewable energy sources that are inherently variable in nature, such as wind or solar. Due to their highly stochastic behavior, these hybrid-source islanded microgrids can pose potential issues related to power quality due to introduction of rapid net load fluctuations and inability of diesel generators to respond rapidly. In addition, non-firm stochastic sources can require significant idling diesel generator resources to serve as spinning reserves, which is inefficient and wasteful. This work studies the problems that may arise in the transient dynamics of a real-world hybrid diesel microgrid when subjected to a loss of wind generation. Moreover, this work proposes a transition from a diesel spinning reserve to a battery energy-storage system (BESS) operating reserve scheme. The study of the proposed transition is important in establishing the fundamental implication of transient dynamics and the potential benefits of integrating a BESS as a spinning reserve in terms of stability, frequency nadir, and transient voltage deviation. The methods to investigate and validate the transient dynamics relied on both electromagnetic simulation models of GFMIs and a commercially available GFMI in an experimental power hardware-in-the-loop setup. The simulation results showed that the proposed operating reserve scheme improves the power quality of the system in terms of voltage deviation and frequency nadir when the microgrid is subjected to a loss of wind generation scenario. Depending on the simulation cases, adding a GFMI reduced the frequency nadir between 65.3% and 86.7%. Moreover, the reductions in the voltage deviations improved between 3.6% and 23.0%. From these results it can be concluded that the integration of a GFMI can reduce the frequency nadir in a hybrid diesel microgrid, and in turn, reduce diesel consumption, which improves system reliability while reducing fuel expenses. Furthermore, the novelty of this work relies on the fact that the offline simulation results were validated using a power hardware-in-the-loop platform that incorporated a 100 kVA commercially available GFMI as the device under test.

Hernandez-Alvidrez, Javier↗

The Cost of Decarbonization and Energy Upgrade Retrofits for US Homes

Cost is a major barrier when upgrading homes to reduce carbon emissions required to meet DOE’s climate-related goals. This report summarizes a nationwide effort to gather home energy upgrade project cost data along with household energy performance data. The goal was to develop cost benchmarks and to guide future R&D efforts aimed at cost compression and scaling of the residential upgrade market. The cost data were compiled for both total project costs and costs of individual measures. The majority of energy savings were modeled, with some models using measured site data for calibration. The database was analyzed using clustering techniques to find common energy and CO2 reduction approaches. The individual measures were combined into archetypal solutions to determine least-cost approaches to maximizing energy and carbon savings. Several financial analyses were preformed to examine other cost metrics beyond first cost. Project data was obtained for 1,739 projects, from 15 states and 12 energy programs, with a total of 10,512 individual measures. The database includes a wide-array of projects, ranging from single-measure HVAC upgrades to net-zero energy whole home remodels. Projects were predominantly single-family detached dwellings with wood frame construction. Most of the data was obtained from energy programs because they had recorded the necessary information and were willing to share with this study. This sample of convenience can provide broad guidance and national cost benchmarks, but lacks sufficient detail to draw more disaggregated conclusions, such as geographical trends. The majority of data contributions were obtained without compensation from sources where the required data was already in some sort of structured format. We compensated sources to enter data from individual projects into a structured data format for about 500 projects, with an average cost of about $40 per project. The database was highly skewed to lower cost, lower impact projects due to the nature of the sample of convenience. Less than 10% of projects had savings greater than 50%. The cost data for individual measures in the database are being used in other DOE efforts on residential energy use/decarbonization. This data collection effort should continue in order to provide the best-informed guidance for DOE and industry R&D, as well as deployment efforts (including policy and program planning).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

tapir: A tool for topologies, amplitudes, partial fraction decomposition and input for reductions

The demand for precision predictions in the field of high energy physics has dramatically increased over recent years. Experiments conducted at the LHC, as well as precision measurements at the intensity frontier such as Belle II require equally precise theoretical predictions to make full use of the acquired data. To match the experimental precision, second-, third- and, for certain quantities, even higher-order calculations in perturbative quantum field theory are required. To facilitate such calculations, computer software automating as many steps as possible is required. Yet, each calculation poses different challenges and thus, a high level of configurability is required. In this context we present tapir: a tool for identification, manipulation and minimization of Feynman integral families. It is designed to integrate in toolchains based on the computer algebra system FORM, the use of which is common practice in the field. tapir can be used to reduce the complexity of multi-loop problems with cut-filters, topology mapping, partial fraction decomposition and alike. Program Title:tapir CPC Library link to program files:https://doi.org/10.17632/ptc9t46xyn.1 Developer's repository link:https://gitlab.com/tapir-devs/tapir Licensing provisions: GPLv3 Programming language:python 3, C++ Nature of problem: Multi-loop computations require the automatization of a large number of different tasks related to Feynman integral topologies. Among them are the identification and minimization of integral topologies, partial fraction decomposition of topologies in the case of linearly dependent propagators as well as mapping scalar products of loop momenta to scalar functions. Solution method: The minimization of topologies is performed by comparison of their respective Nickel indices [1], even further minimization utilizes Pak's algorithm [2]. To efficiently map scalar products of loop momenta to scalar functions FORM [3] code is generated. Additional comments including restrictions and unusual features: Minimization based on Pak's algorithm slows down for many lines and scales. A coarser minimization using the Nickel indices, however, is still possible. [1]B. Nickel, D. Meiron, G.A.J. Baker, Compilation of 2-pt and 4-pt graphs for continuous spin model, Report, University of Guelph, 1977.[2]A. Pak, J. Phys. Conf. Ser. 368 (2012) 012049, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/368/1/012049, arXiv:1111.0868.[3]B. Ruijl, T. Ueda, J. Vermaseren, FORM version 4.2, arXiv:1707.06453, 7 2017.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗