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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34

Novel Technique for Developing Linearized Convex System Models from Experimentally Derived Data: Preprint

This paper presents a novel technique for generating a convex system model from an experimentally derived data set which features variance among repeated measurements. The convex system model developed as a test case characterizes the dynamic system losses of a vanadium redox low battery as a function of the active power output and the battery state of charge.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A development of logistics management models for the Space Transportation System

A new analytic queueing approach was described which relates stockage levels, repair level decisions, and the project network schedule of prelaunch operations directly to the probability distribution of the space transportation system launch delay. Finite source population and limited repair capability were additional factors included in this logistics management model developed specifically for STS maintenance requirements. Data presently available to support logistics decisions were based on a comparability study of heavy aircraft components. A two-phase program is recommended by which NASA would implement an integrated data collection system, assemble logistics data from previous STS flights, revise extant logistics planning and resource requirement parameters using Bayes-Lin techniques, and adjust for uncertainty surrounding logistics systems performance parameters. The implementation of these recommendations can be expected to deliver more cost-effective logistics support.

Carrillo, M. J.↗

Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.

MacNeice, Peter↗

Recommendations on Evidence and Process for Certification of Learning-enabled Components in Aerospace Systems

This report primarily identifies a collection of relevant and necessary evidence for assurance of machine learnt components (MLCs)—also known as learning-enabled components—integrated into aircraft systems, and gives preliminary suggestions on the elements of a certification process that invoke the identified evidence. The main focus is on feedforward neural networks that are static and trained offline through supervised learning. A brief background on the generic elements of the lifecycle of an MLC is given to contextualize the assurance considerations and, consequently, the evidence that is relevant and necessary to support certification. At the level of an MLC, those considerations relate to: (i) the consistency and correctness of MLC contributions to system functions in the context of a validated functional intent; and (ii) the absence of MLC contributions to aircraft-level failure conditions. At an ML model level, confidence in model and data properties contribute to assurance of the containing MLC, in particular: (a) generalizability and robustness of models, in the presence of inputs not previously seen during training, disturbances to inputs, and unexpected inputs; and (b) valid data, i.e., data that are at least representative, relevant, complete, and accurate. Evidence for the above span the elements of the ML lifecycle, and includes, at a minimum, lifecycle artifacts that pertain to: (1) properties of requirements capturing functional intent, safety constraints, and aspects of the intended use and operating environment; (2) model performance, model complexity and design, and algorithm choice; (3) achievement of required performance at the levels of a trained model during model development, a trained model after model development is complete, and a trained model that is transformed into an executable equivalent; (4) model implementation aspects necessary for transforming a trained model into the executable equivalent; (5) integration of the executable trained model into the containing MLC, and eventually the larger system; and, (6) lastly, the verification and validation (V&V) of each of the above. Such V&V lifecycle artifacts themselves include: aspects of coverage, e.g., of various levels of requirements by the input space of the model and the data; traceability (where applicable); application of formal methods for property specification, analysis, and checking. Examples of evidence generation methods and tools further ground the discussion on what constitutes evidence, and the contribution to assurance during certification. The identified assurance considerations and supporting evidence is not a comprehensive set. Additionally, neither what should be considered as sufficient evidence relative to the assigned criticality of an MLC, nor how criticality ought to be determined and adjusted, have been considered in this report. However, suggestions are made for potential activities of the ML lifecycle that are aimed at providing confidence that an MLC can be relied upon when integrated into its containing (aircraft) system. Those activities are proposed as candidate elements of a certification process for MLCs. The main purpose of this report to inform regulatory guidance and consensus standards that may be used to meet the safety intent of the applicable regulations.

Aviation safety↗

Development of Computer Models for the Assessment of Foreign Body Impact Events on Composite Structures

The objective of this project was to model the 5-3/4 inch pressure vessels used on the NASA RTOP program in an attempt to learn more about how impact damage forms and what are the residual effects of the resulting damage. A global-local finite element model was developed for the bottle and the states of stress in the bottles were determined down to the constituent level. The experimental data that was generated on the NASA RTOP program was not in a form that enabled the model developed under this grant to be correlated with the experimental data. As a result of this exercise it is recommended that an experimental program be designed using statistical design of experiment techniques to generate data that can be used to isolate the phenomenon that control the formation of impact damage. This data should include residual property determinations so that models for post impact structural integrity can be developed. It is also recommended that the global-local methodology be integrated directly into the finite element code. This will require considerable code development.

Bucinell, Ronald B.↗

A Predictive Transient Model of the TREAT-SIRIUS Experiments

To support experiments modeling and transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored SIRIUS experiments in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT), an innovative predictive transient model has been developed to simulate various transient experiments. The developed model is based on a new approach that utilizes steady-state Monte Carlo calculations along with a surrogate model based on polynomial regression to determine the core reactivity. The reactivity is supplied to an exact point kinetics model that determines the reactor power, and it is coupled to an adiabatic feedback model to determine the fuel average temperature. In this work, the newly developed model is introduced along with validation test results considering SIRIUS-1 experiments at different power levels. The initial test results show a very good agreement with experimental data at different power levels, which indicates that the model can be used to predict the power of other transient tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Investigation of a Hybrid Carbon Capture System at a NGCC Power Plant That Performs Direct Air Capture During Off-Peak Hours

The goal of this project was to investigate the feasibility of coupling NGCC power plants with membrane and solid sorbent carbon capture to achieve net negative carbon emissions. This novel hybrid system has a couple of potential benefits: 1) the carbon capture systems could help the NGCC plant by minimizing its carbon footprint and giving it a new revenue stream from direct air capture, and 2) the NGCC plant could help direct air capture scale up quickly and costeffectively by providing it with electricity, steam and compressed air streams. In order to investigate this hybrid design, we developed a complex, integrated system model consisting of: 1) a NGCC power plant model developed by Dr. Bhattacharyya’s team at WVU, 2) a membrane carbon capture model developed by Dr. Lipscomb’s team at U Toledo, and 3) a solid sorbent carbon capture model developed by Dr. Hornbostel’s team at U Pittsburgh. Mr. Matuszewski’s team at AristoSys LLC integrated these three models into a single, integrated model using FOQUS, an optimization tool developed by the NETL CCSI 2 program. Optimizations were then performed on this integrated model to determine the cost and carbon capture rates under a range of electricity and carbon price scenarios.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Cost Model Comparison: A Study of Internally and Commercially Developed Cost Models in Use by NASA

NASA makes use of numerous cost models to accurately estimate the cost of various components of a mission - hardware, software, mission/ground operations - during the different stages of a mission's lifecycle. The purpose of this project was to survey these models and determine in which respects they are similar and in which they are different. The initial survey included a study of the cost drivers for each model, the form of each model (linear/exponential/other CER, range/point output, capable of risk/sensitivity analysis), and for what types of missions and for what phases of a mission lifecycle each model is capable of estimating cost. The models taken into consideration consisted of both those that were developed by NASA and those that were commercially developed: GSECT, NAFCOM, SCAT, QuickCost, PRICE, and SEER. Once the initial survey was completed, the next step in the project was to compare the cost models' capabilities in terms of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements. This final comparison was then portrayed in a visual manner with Venn diagrams. All of the materials produced in the process of this study were then posted on the Ground Segment Team (GST) Wiki.

cost models↗

Model-Driven Development of Safety Architectures

We describe the use of model-driven development for safety assurance of a pioneering NASA flight operation involving a fleet of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) flying beyond visual line of sight. The central idea is to develop a safety architecture that provides the basis for risk assessment and visualization within a safety case, the formal justification of acceptable safety required by the aviation regulatory authority. A safety architecture is composed from a collection of bow tie diagrams (BTDs), a practical approach to manage safety risk by linking the identified hazards to the appropriate mitigation measures. The safety justification for a given unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operation can have many related BTDs. In practice, however, each BTD is independently developed, which poses challenges with respect to incremental development, maintaining consistency across different safety artifacts when changes occur, and in extracting and presenting stakeholder specific information relevant for decision making. We show how a safety architecture reconciles the various BTDs of a system, and, collectively, provide an overarching picture of system safety, by considering them as views of a unified model. We also show how it enables model-driven development of BTDs, replete with validations, transformations, and a range of views. Our approach, which we have implemented in our toolset, AdvoCATE, is illustrated with a running example drawn from a real UAS safety case. The models and some of the innovations described here were instrumental in successfully obtaining regulatory flight approval.

Safety case↗

Delivery of Dynamic Thermal Energy Storage Models and Advanced Reactor Concept Models to the HYBRID Repository

This publication details newly created energy storage and reactor models developed within the HYBRID modeling repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of a pebble bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR), sodium fast reactor (SFR), compressed air energy storage (CAES), liquid air energy storage (LAES) and Modelica standard library based two-tank sensible heat storage (SHS) in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to flexibly operate in ways consistent with IES operation expectations. When these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed. Also detailed in this report are future development goals for the HYBRID repository including adding suites of steady-state models, economic costing information, and reduced-order models. By adding these models in addition to the physical transient models currently existing within HYBRID, HYBRID will be a fully integrable tool for FORCE users.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Surrogate Model of Flexible Research Platform EnergyPlus Models to Enable Sensitivity Analysis

This letter report describes the surrogate models developed from the EnergyPlus model of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform. Two data-driven black-box models were developed, and the outputs of the surrogate models were compared with the EnergyPlus model. The two models developed are a multilayer perceptron deep learning model, and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model. The three factors for selecting the black-box models are scalability, computation time, and accuracy. A total of 107 input variables were the dominant variables in determining the outputs of building energy consumptions and thermal comfort. A total of 54 output variables were identified as the prediction targets, including the system- and zone-level outputs. The large set of the simulation cases were generated by integrating sensor errors into an emulator based on EnergyPlus and Python EMS, which includes advanced control sequences from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation. The surrogate models were developed based on a set of large-scale simulation runs (i.e., 4,000 runs) on a cloud platform. The comparison analysis shows that the two black-box models had good accuracy for predicting new outputs for sensitivity analysis using the root mean square error metric. As a next step, the developed surrogate models will be used to perform sensitivity analysis for different sensor impacts (e.g., sensor types, sensor locations).

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel. Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, are also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/integraal Luchthaven Competitie Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Veldhuis, J.↗

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel, Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, arc also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/Integral Luchthaven Competitive Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Veldhuis, J.↗

Space shuttle lift-off dynamic model

Previously developed dynamic models for the calculation of lift-off dynamic response of the space shuttle vehicle can handle only response of the vehicle with eight holddown arms attached or with all holddown arms detached. The new model developed in the referenced report takes into account the transition period between holddown and lift-off by giving the model the ability to vary holddown point separation as a function of vehicle flexible body and rigid body motion. This report documents a study made to verify the new model's capability to simulate vehicle response at lift-off. To do this, a finite element model of the skirt is made and coupled to the free-free modes of the vehicle and cantilevered modes calculated and compared with the previously developed model. Results indicate that the new model will be able to predict accurate vehicle loads.

Christian, D.↗

Analytical heat transfer model for laterally perforated-finned heat sinks

An analytical model is proposed to predict the average Nusselt numbers of laterally perforated-finned heat sinks (LA-PFHSs) with high aspect ratios in forced convection laminar flows. The model is developed based on the experimental data acquired from testing air-cooled heat sinks including square cross-sectional perforations distributed equidistantly along the length of the fins. The experiments were conducted using three different perforation sizes and five different porosities at each perforation size. The accuracy of the experiments was validated by comparing the experimental pressure drops and heat transfer coefficients of the heat sink without perforation with those obtained from the widely accepted correlations in the literature. Here the developed model in this study predicts the Nusselt number as a function of Reynolds number, Prandtl number, fin and perforation geometrical parameters, porosity, and the distances between perforations. The model showed excellent predictions for the Nusselt numbers of all LA-PFHSs tested in this study to be within ±12% of the experimental data and a mean absolute error of 4.90%. This study is the first attempt in the literature to develop an analytical model based on experimental data for investigating heat transfer in LA-PFHSs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Validation and Verification for INL Modelica-based TEDS models Via Experimental Results

This report provides an overview on the verification and validation (V&V) of the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) model developed in the Modelica process modeling ecosystem using experimental data. Model development has led to the creation of a dynamic process model of the experimental TEDS facility housed within the Energy Systems Laboratory (ESL) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The model was then used during the preconstruction phase of the experimental effort to inform experimental design (e.g., insulation requirements, bypass line placement, expected performance of components) and to test innovative control schemes prior to the initial operation. The TEDS model developed in Modelica includes the primary components of the TEDS experimental unit: a 200kW Chromalox heater; a single-tank packed-bed thermal energy storage system filled with 0.125-inch alumina (Al2O3) beads; an ethylene-glycol-to-Therminol-66 heat exchanger; system piping; five control valves; and all associated temperature, pressure, and volumetric flow sensors. Using the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) V&V methodologies, considered the gold standard in the engineering field, the model was verified using a combination of static analysis, spatial convergence, and regression tests. Then using dynamic time warping (DTW) initial runs to validate and tune the TEDS model versus the experiment were conducted. This tuning method was accomplished using the INL Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software package. Tuning is required to account for physical phenomena that are less understood within the empirical heat transfer correlations. Through the commencement of this work, a systems-level model of TEDS with associated control systems, sensors, piping diameters, and component capabilities has been created. This model was utilized in the pre-experimental phase to inform system design, insulation thicknesses, and potential control schemes to operate the system effectively and safely. Then, initial experimental startup and operational data were used to demonstrate the validation and tuning methodology. This process demonstrates the classical two-step approach of a model informing experimental design followed by the experiment validation and tuning the model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development and Calibration of an Online Energy Model for AHU Fan

The model development is necessary for the study of the energy consumption of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. To predict the HVAC energy consumption accurately, one needs to model the individual HVAC components either from the measured data or based on the knowledge of the underlying physical phenomenon. Online model characterization is critical for improving the performance of real-time model-based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) strategies. For HVAC control, models can be used to optimize the supervisory and local feedback control strategies to improve the energy consumption efficiency, or for providing ancillary services to the grid. It has been reported that, fans in HVAC systems of commercial buildings alone can provide substantial frequency regulation service, with little change in the indoor environment. In this paper, a real-time data-driven Air Handling Unit (AHU) fan model was developed based on recursive multi regression model. A generic nonlinear polynomial model has been studied to cover scenarios with different combinations of measurement variables, variable orders as well as different training and prediction horizons. Typical measurements including static pressure, mass flow rate, and damper positions are utilized as inputs to model the power consumption of the fan. The developed models have been validated both with simulation data from EnergyPlus-Dymola co-simulation model and with field measurement data for small to medium commercial buildings. The validation results show that the online model proposed can provide an effective prediction of the AHU fan power consumption.

Dong, Jin↗

A hybrid building thermal modeling approach for predicting temperatures in typical, detached, two-story houses

Within the residential building sector, the air-conditioning (AC) load is the main target for peak load shifting and reduction since it is the largest contributor to peak demand. By leveraging its power flexibility, residential AC is a good candidate to provide building demand response and peak load shifting. For realization of accurate and reliable control of AC loads, a building thermal model, which characterizes the properties of a building’s envelope and its thermal mass, is an essential component for accurate indoor temperature or cooling/heating demand prediction. Building thermal models include two types: “Forward” and “Data-Driven”. Due to time-saving and cost-effective characteristics, different data-driven models have been developed in a number of research studies. However, few developed models can predict temperatures in respective zones of a multiple-zone building with an open air path between zones e.g., an open stairwell connecting two floors of a home. In this research, a novel hybrid modeling approach is proposed to predict the average indoor air temperatures of both the upstairs and downstairs. This “hybrid” solution integrates both gray-box, i.e. RC model and black-box models. A developed RC model is used to predict the building mean temperature, and black-box model, in which the supervised machine learning algorithms are leveraged, is used to predict the temperature difference between the downstairs and upstairs. Compared with the measured data from a real house, the results obtained have acceptable/satisfactory accuracy. The method proposed in this study integrates the advantages of black-box and gray-box modeling. As a result, it can be used as a reliable alternative to predict the average temperatures in respective floors of typical detached two-story houses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗