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At least 613 records · Page 34

Benchmark estimate of the effect of anthropogenic emissions on the ocean surface

Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic emissions in the occurrence of extreme weather often use a method that compares simulations of atmospheric climate models run under a factual scenario of historical boundary conditions observed during the period of the event against simulations run under a counterfactual scenario of what those boundary conditions might naturally have been over that same period in the absence of anthropogenic emissions. A particular requirement for this experiment design is an accurate estimation of ocean surface boundary conditions for use by the counterfactual natural simulations. Here we use output from the CMIP5 multi‐climate‐model archive to develop a robust estimate of sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions for use in counterfactual natural simulations, intended as a benchmark estimate to facilitate comparison across climate models and across studies. This development includes tests to ensure that the final estimate is stable from year‐to‐year and stable against other perturbations to the methodology, as well as consideration of the strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other available attributable warming estimates. While this estimate is tailored specifically for the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project, it can be used by related projects as well.

Stone, Dáithí A.↗

Representativity error scaling of models of the high temperature test facility

Error scaling is a critical step toward the validation of modeling capabilities for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). Extensive effort is being made to bring HTGRs into the validation basis of numerous thermal-hydraulics codes. Here, this paper demonstrates how systems-level codes can be leveraged to perform error scaling analyses between an experimental facility and a plant-to-be facility. Specifically, we focus on two conduction cooldown experiments from the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) and the General Atomics 350 MW th modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR-350). The error scaling methodology employed in this study is representativity, which in the context of this work was used to quantify how well experiments captured the physics of the plant facility by comparing sensitivity vectors between the two facilities. In addition, two different RELAP5–3D models of the HTTF were included in the comparison to determine if modeling methodologies notably impact the representativity results. The key figures of merit are the maximum block temperature and the coolant outlet temperature. The time-dependent maximum block temperature had a low representativity of below 0.1 for both models across both transients. The coolant outlet temperature had a higher representativity of around 0.6 for both models during the pressurized conduction cooldown, but it was below 0.2 for the depressurized conduction cooldown. Overall, the HTTF experiments were not representative of the transients in the MHTGR-350. However, these results can play a significant role in informing future potential experiments for HTGR systems that iterate on what the HTTF accomplished.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

System Identification of a DC-DC Buck Converter Based on Two-Channel Relay Method

This work presents a system identification approach based on a two-channel relay applied to a DC-DC buck converter operating in closed-loop with a PI controller to regulate its output voltage. The implemented two-relay method allows system identification while the system is running online. Moreover, the algorithm works in a closed-loop configuration while introducing a minimal perturbation in the converter's operation. The presented algorithm was used to identify the frequency response of the converter with no-prior knowledge about the system structure. Furthermore, the identified transfer function parameters has a good agreement with the mathematical model of the converter. Simulation results of the comparison between the switching model, mathematical model and the identified model are provided to validate the theoretical analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

UNESE Data Analysis-Disko Elm Gas Transport Characteristics (NA-22 Quarterly Report)

Recently published papers have demonstrated the impact of sorption mechanisms on gas transport in the subsurface following an underground nuclear explosion. To include sorption processes in the multi-physics models of noble gas production and transport, researchers have conducted experiments of gas sorption in geologic materials and calibrated a linear (Henry’s law) sorption model for all gases in various geologic materials. As a part of Task #4, we requested the experimental data from Sandia Laboratories and derived a dual-mode (Henry’s absorption and Langmuir adsorption) sorption model. The derived model better describes the nonlinear sorption mechanism with much higher fitness with the experimental data. When gas concentrations are relatively low (in the conditions of field experiments or underground nuclear explosions) compared to those used sorption experiments, the nonlinear sorption model can be approximated as a linear sorption model. The equivalent Henry’s constant, which equals the product of Langmuir capacity and affinity, is systematically higher than the literature values. Further analyses and comparison of sorption models are planned in FY2020 Q4 and the sorption model will be coupled in models of nonisothermal multiphase transport for studying noble gas detectability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MELCOR Input Model for Spent Fuel Transportation and Storage Canister

This report documents the progress and current results of the MELCOR spent fuel cask input model. The MELCOR model is being developed to investigate aerosol transport and deposition given the aerosol physical phenomena models within MELCOR. To perform the analyses, a general portrayal of the MAGNASTOR® cask system has been employed; however, this system was selected based on available information to provide a reasonable representation of a spent fuel cask. The analytical results are not intended to characterize the performance of the MAGNASTOR® cask. Instead, the provided results are intended to enhance our general understanding of the aerosol behavior within casks and the validity of current models. The current model efforts are being performed to investigate hypothetical UO 2 release from failed fuel pins within a spent fuel cask. The existing MELCOR model of the MAGNASTOR® cask system has been adapted to permit future comparative analyses with the GOTHIC representation of the MAGNASTOR® cask. To support this comparison, the PNNL model characteristics that are unrelated to the aerosol modeling were applied to the MELCOR model. These characteristics included improved comparability of the axial fidelity, total spent fuel power, fuel pin axial power profile, and heat losses from cannister. The thermal-hydraulic solutions are improved within the capability of the MELCOR code and will permit better overall agreement with the GOTHIC results. Detailed results are presented on the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the MELCOR cask as well as characterization of UO 2 aerosol dispersion and deposition within the cask.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

In-Situ Species Concentration Measurements In Ammonia-Mix Flames Using Ftir Spectroscopy

Hydrogen and ammonia represent two carbon-free fuel sources that could be used in place of current fossil energy sources in combustion systems. To develop optimized ammonia combustion systems, validated modeling tools are needed. In the open literature, it has been shown that the complex chemistry associated with fuel-bound nitrogen contained in ammonia differs greatly from natural gas or hydrogen combustion. As a result, several new chemical kinetic mechanisms have been developed. Many of these mechanisms have been validated experimentally, however this has primarily focused on bulk parameters such as laminar flame speed and ignition delay time. Critically, high quality measurements of species concentrations are needed under controlled conditions which are easily represented by simple models. In this paper, direct, in-situ measurements of species concentrations and gas temperature are performed in a laminar flat-flame burner. This arrangement enables comparison with 1D model predictions, better isolating chemical kinetics from the fluid dynamics. Quantitative species concentrations are determined by absorption spectroscopy using an FTIR spectrometer. Fuel compositions representative of cracked ammonia (NH 3 /H 2 ) and ammonia-natural gas (NH 3 /CH 4 ) are considered for rich and lean equivalence ratios. A major focus of the paper is on the selection of spectral features for nitric oxide and ammonia and correcting for large amounts of baseline H 2 O absorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

In-Situ Species Concentration Measurements in Ammonia-Mix Flames Using FTIR Spectroscopy

Hydrogen and ammonia represent two carbon-free fuel sources that could be used in place of current fossil energy sources in combustion systems. To develop optimized ammonia combustion systems, validated modeling tools are needed. In the open literature, it has been shown that the complex chemistry associated with fuel-bound nitrogen contained in ammonia differs greatly from natural gas or hydrogen combustion. As a result, several new chemical kinetic mechanisms have been developed. Many of these mechanisms have been validated experimentally, however this has primarily focused on bulk parameters such as laminar flame speed and ignition delay time. Critically, high quality measurements of species concentrations are needed under controlled conditions which are easily represented by simple models. In this paper, direct, in-situ measurements of species concentrations and gas temperature are performed in a laminar flat-flame burner. This arrangement enables comparison with 1D model predictions, better isolating chemical kinetics from the fluid dynamics. Quantitative species concentrations are determined by absorption spectroscopy using an FTIR spectrometer. Fuel compositions representative of cracked ammonia (NH3/H2) and ammonia-natural gas (NH3/CH4) are considered for rich and lean equivalence ratios. A major focus of the paper is on the selection of spectral features for nitric oxide and ammonia and correcting for large amounts of baseline H2O absorption.

Bedick, Clinton↗

Skeletal Kinetics Reduction for Astrophysical Reaction Networks

A novel methodology is developed to extract accurate skeletal reaction models for nuclear combustion. Local sensitivities of isotope mass fractions with respect to reaction rates are modeled based on the forced optimally time-dependent (f-OTD) scheme. These sensitivities are then analyzed temporally to generate skeletal models. The methodology is demonstrated by conducting skeletal reduction of constant density and temperature burning of carbon and oxygen relevant to Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The 495-isotopes Torch model is chosen as the detailed reaction network. A map of maximum production of 56 Ni in SNe Ia is produced for different temperatures, densities, and proton-to-neutron ratios. The f-OTD simulations and the sensitivity analyses are then performed with initial conditions from this map. A series of skeletal models are derived and their performances are assessed by comparison against currently existing skeletal models. Previous models have been constructed intuitively by assuming the dominance of α-chain reactions. The comparison of the newly generated skeletal models against previous models is based on the predicted energy release and 44 Ti and 56 Ni abundances by each model. The consequences of ye ≠ 0.5 in the initial composition are also explored where ye is the electron fraction. The simulated results show that 56 Ni production decreases by decreasing ye as expected, and that the 43 Sc is a key isotope in proton and neutron channels toward 56 Ni production. It is shown that an f-OTD skeletal model with 150 isotopes can accurately predict the 56Ni abundance in SNe Ia for ye ≲ 0.5 initial conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Second Skin: A Wearable Sensor Suite that Enables Real-Time Human Biomechanics Tracking Through Deep Learning

Objective: Real-time determination of human kinematics and kinetics could advance biomechanics research and enable valuable applications of biofeedback and generalizable exoskeleton control. Here, this work aims to investigate a taskindependent, user-independent method for obtaining precise realtime joint state estimation across lower-body joints during a wide variety of tasks. Methods: We developed a generalizable sensing approach using a suit comprised of inertial measurement units (IMUs) and pressure insoles. With the suit, we collected a dataset of 33 tasks commonly performed during construction and hazardous waste cleanup (N = 10). We then trained deep learning user-independent, task-agnostic models to estimate joint lowerbody kinematics and dynamics using only worn sensor data. We likewise computed joint kinematics and dynamics analytically from sensor data to serve as a comparison tool for model results. Results: Our models achieved overall angle estimation root-meansquared-errors (RMSE) of 6.56±.92°, 8.60±1.01°, 7.58±.89°, and 6.00±.73° compared to 13.9±.1.3°, 15.31±1.0°, 10.76±.70°, and 7.56±.48° via analytical methods at the lower back, hip, knee, and ankle, respectively. Likewise, our models achieved overall normalized moment estimation RMSEs of .207±.069 Nm/kg, .242±.044 Nm/kg, .202±.038 Nm/kg, and .193±.034 Nm/kg compared to .306±.036 Nm/kg, .407±.021 Nm/kg, 1.18 ±.022 Nm/kg, and 1.73±.071 Nm/kg via analytical methods at the lower back, hip, knee, and ankle, respectively. Conclusion: These results are comparable to other state-of-the-art wearable sensing systems, establishing deep learning as a viable sensing approach that generalizes to new users and tasks. Significance: This work shows promise for enabling accurate real-world biomechanical data collection and enhancement of biofeedback systems and wearable robot control.

Casey, Ryan T. F. [Georgia Institute of Technology↗

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Studies of Localization Effects on Transverse Kinematic Imbalance in the GENIE Generator

The forthcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) requires precise modeling of neutrino--nucleus interactions to achieve its neutrino-oscillation measurement goals. GENIE, the Monte Carlo event generator used by DUNE and other Fermilab-based experiments as a central value model for neutrino-nucleus cross sections, exhibits known discrepancies in comparison to MicroBooNE cross section data, especially when considering neutrino scattering events' transverse kinematic imbalance (TKI). For quasielastic-like measurements, the data show a larger transverse missing momentum tail while maintaining a peak similar to that predicted by the baseline GENIE model. Previous attempts at a solution include variations of final-state interaction (FSI) strengths, incorrectly decreasing both the peak and tail, thus leaving the discrepancy unresolved. This work investigates whether inconsistencies between local and global treatments of intranuclear physics contribute to the observed mismodeling. In this work, GENIE FSI routines have been modified to directly utilize intranuclear particle positions, thereby introducing a newly localized momentum treatment in correlation with the nominal density in both the hA and hN intranuclear cascade models for their 2018 and 2025 variants. Meson-exchange-current (MEC) localization was also tested for the hN 2018 model. Comparisons of the intranuclear nucleons' ("scattering center") momentum and its radial dependence validate the localization implementation. However, while such consistent localization produces modest changes in the proton momentum spectrum at low-to-medium momenta, only small changes are observed in the TKI distributions. These changes are insufficient to account for the discrepancy with MicroBooNE data. Although a localized treatment improves the internal consistency of the GENIE model, the origin of the TKI discrepancy remains unresolved by such a solution.

Bulla, Braden [Ctr. Coll., Danville; Fermilab]↗

Detailed study of the eikonal reaction theory for the breakup of one-neutron halo nuclei

Background: One-neutron removal reactions are used to study the single-particle structure of unstable nuclei, and in particular the exotic halo nuclei. The eikonal reaction theory (ERT) has been developed by Yahiro, Ogata, and Minomo [Prog. Theor. Phys. 126, 167 (2011)] to include dynamical effects, which are missing in the usual eikonal description of these reactions. Encouraging results have been obtained for total breakup cross sections in comparison to more elaborate reaction models. Purpose: Here, we extend these comparisons to more differential breakup cross sections expressed as functions of the relative energy or parallel momentum between the core and halo neutron. Method: ERT predictions of these cross sections are compared to state-of-the-art calculations. Results: The hypotheses upon which the ERT is based are confirmed and their range of validity is made clearer. The actual ordering of the evolution operators affects ERT differential cross sections and a specific choice leads to excellent agreement with the reference calculation. Dynamical effects in the treatment of the neutron-target interaction can be significant in the parallel-momentum observable. Conclusions: The role of the different interactions in the dynamics of breakup reactions of one-neutron halo nuclei are better understood and improvements to the ERT are suggested.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

An automated and portable method for selecting an optimal GPU frequency

Power consumption poses a significant challenge in current and emerging graphics processing unit (GPU) enabled high-performance computing systems. In modern GPUs, dynamic voltage frequency scaling (DVFS) appears to be a reliable control to regulate power consumption and performance. However, the DVFS design space is large - hence, brute-force approaches are infeasible to select the optimal frequency. Furthermore, no single frequency can be universally optimal for applications with varying computational intensities. Thus, the application's complexity and the availability of a wide range of frequency settings are a challenge in selecting the optimal frequency configuration for a given GPU workload. To that end, this paper proposes a systematic approach that consists of three steps. The feature characterization study identifies the fine-grain GPU utilization metrics that influence the power consumption and execution time of a given workload. To understand the performance, power, and energy consumption behaviors of a workload across GPU's DVFS design space, we derived analytical power and performance models using the identified fine-grain features. Here, it is shown that the same set of GPU utilization metrics can estimate both the power consumption and execution time while being agnostic of changes to frequency and input sizes. Applying a power control with the single objective of reducing power may cause performance degradation, leading to more energy consumption. A multi-objective approach is proposed to select the optimal GPU DVFS configuration for a workload that reduces power consumption with negligible degradation in performance. The evaluation was conducted using SPEC ACCEL benchmarks and three real applications - NAMD LAMMPS, and LSTM on NVIDIA GV100, GA100, and AMD MI210 GPUs. On average, real applications showed 29.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 5.2% on GA100 and 22.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 4.7% on GV100. Moreover, the proposed models are portable to real applications, GPU architectures, and vendors, and require metric collection at only the default frequency rather than all supported DVFS configurations. Additionally, we conducted a comparison between our models and the GPU assembly instructions (PTX)-based static models. The results revealed a significant reduction in the average error rates, with a decrease from 19.7% to 3.1% for power models and from 29.4% to 5.2% for performance models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of Precipitation Parameters on the Specific Surface Area of PuO 2

Controlling the properties of PuO 2 through processing is of vital importance to environmental transport and fate, production of nuclear fuels, nuclear forensic analyses, stockpile stewardship, and storage of nuclear wastes applications. A number of processing conditions have been identified to control final product properties, including specific surface area (SSA), residual carbon content, adsorption of volatile species, morphology, and particle size. In this paper, a novel approach is developed for the prediction of PuO 2 SSA via the synthetic route of Pu(IV) oxalate precipitation followed by calcination. The proposed model utilizes multivariate regression methodology and leave one out formalism to link Savannah River Site (SRS) precipitation and calcination production data to the SSA of the final product. A comparison among the models provides insight into the accuracy and ability to identify variations amongst the processing data. Additionally, the models may also be used to fit new data outside of the parameters explored in a production facility. Finally, the trained model was compared to a similarly trained conventional model form to illustrate the influence of precipitation parameters on the prediction of the final SSA. The models presented here attempt to provide new methods for more accurate prediction of the PuO 2 product properties in a production scale environment for key environmental and nuclear applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Role of perturbed parallel magnetic field effects in predicting turbulent transport in NSTX

This study presents analysis of gyrokinetic simulations on the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) to investigate the effects of electromagnetic fields on plasma turbulence and transport. The simulations, performed with varying levels of fidelity using the gyrokinetic CGYRO code, include electrostatic (ES), single-field electromagnetic (EM1), and two-field electromagnetic (EM2) models. A detailed comparison across the simulation database reveals that electromagnetic effects increase both predicted growth rates and quasilinear fluxes, with EM2 simulations producing stronger turbulence than ES and EM1 cases. Quasilinear modeling using QLGYRO demonstrates that while the perturbed parallel magnetic field (δB ∥ ) does not drastically affect the total flux at experimental gradients, it leads to a shift in the dominant instability, altering mode structures from microtearing to kinetic ballooning modes (KBMs). The proximity of the plasma profiles to the KBM threshold is explored, with the experimental conditions being near the onset of KBM-driven transport. The KBM, with its large growth rates, is identified as a potential driver of electron temperature flattening, as it can rapidly transport heat across flux surfaces. Performing stability analysis shows core-localized unstable a low- mode that could contribute to the flattening at the early times of the discharge. TGYRO predictive modeling, incorporating both TGLF and QLGYRO, indicates that the inclusion of δB ∥ significantly improves the accuracy of temperature profile predictions in NSTX high-beta plasmas, although challenges remain in modeling the sharp flux discontinuities caused by KBM-driven instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comparative determinant quantum Monte Carlo study of the acoustic and optical variants of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model

We compare the acoustic Su–Schrieffer–Heeger (SSH) model with two of its optical variants where the phonons are defined on either on the sites or bonds of the system. First, we discuss how to make fair comparisons between these models in any dimension by ensuring their dimensionless coupling λ and relevant phonon energies are the same. We then use determinant quantum Monte Carlo to perform nonperturbative and sign-problem-free simulations of all three models on one-dimensional chains at and away from half-filling. By comparing the results obtained from each model, we demonstrate that the optical and acoustic models produce near identical results within error bars for suitably chosen phonon energies and λ at half-filling. In contrast, the bond model has quantitatively different behavior due to its coupling to the q = 0 phonon mode. These differences also manifest in the total length of the chain, which shrinks for the bond model but not for the acoustic and optical models when λ ≠ 0. Furthermore, our results have important implications for quantum Monte Carlo modeling of SSH-like interactions, where these models are sometimes regarded as being interchangeable.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Black-Box Modeling of Power Conversion System Dynamics

Inverter-based resources are key components in modern power systems, but accurately modeling their complex behavior can be challenging. Standard, generic converter models often oversimplify inverter dynamics, leading to significant errors in predicting performance. In this work, we compare several data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for inverter modeling, performing experiments on power conversion systems, systematically varying input conditions, and recording the resulting voltages and currents. The ML models were then trained on this measured data to capture the inverter's dynamic response and to predict the inverter's output current. A performance comparison between the four ML models under study is conducted, laying the foundation for future work on hardware implementation for real-time inference.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗