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Generation IV benchmarking of TRISO fuel performance models under accident conditions: Modeling input data

This document presents the benchmark plan for the calculation of particle fuel performance on safety testing experiments that are representative of operational accidental transients. The benchmark is dedicated to the modeling of fission product release under accident conditions by fuel performance codes from around the world, and the subsequent comparison to post-irradiation experiment (PIE) data from the modeled heating tests. The accident condition benchmark is divided into three parts: the modeling of a simplified benchmark problem to assess potential numerical calculation issues at low fission product release; the modeling of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis safety testing experiments; and, the comparison of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis modeling results with PIE data. The simplified benchmark case, thereafter named NCC (Numerical Calculation Case), is derived from ''Case 5'' of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on coated particle fuel technology [IAEA 2012]. It is included so participants can evaluate their codes at low fission product release. ''Case 5'' of the IAEA CRP-6 showed large code-to-code discrepancies in the release of fission products, which were attributed to ''effects of the numerical calculation method rather than the physical model''[IAEA 2012]. The NCC is therefore intended to check if these numerical effects subsist. The first two steps imply the involvement of the benchmark participants with a modeling effort following the guidelines and recommendations provided by this document. The third step involves the collection of the modeling results by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the comparison of these results with the available PIE data. The objective of this document is to provide all necessary input data to model the benchmark cases, and to give some methodology guidelines and recommendations in order to make all results suitable for comparison with each other. The participants should read this document thoroughly to make sure all the data needed for their calculations is provided in the document. Missing data will be added to a revision of the document if necessary.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

GEN-IV Benchmarking of Triso Fuel Performance Models under accident conditions modeling input data

This document presents the benchmark plan for the calculation of particle fuel performance on safety testing experiments that are representative of operational accidental transients. The benchmark is dedicated to the modeling of fission product release under accident conditions by fuel performance codes from around the world, and the subsequent comparison to post-irradiation experiment (PIE) data from the modeled heating tests. The accident condition benchmark is divided into three parts: • The modeling of a simplified benchmark problem to assess potential numerical calculation issues at low fission product release. • The modeling of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis safety testing experiments. • The comparison of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis modeling results with PIE data. The simplified benchmark case, thereafter named NCC (Numerical Calculation Case), is derived from “Case 5” of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on coated particle fuel technology [IAEA 2012]. It is included so participants can evaluate their codes at low fission product release. “Case 5” of the IAEA CRP-6 showed large code-to-code discrepancies in the release of fission products, which were attributed to “effects of the numerical calculation method rather than the physical model” [IAEA 2012]. The NCC is therefore intended to check if these numerical effects subsist. The first two steps imply the involvement of the benchmark participants with a modeling effort following the guidelines and recommendations provided by this document. The third step involves the collection of the modeling results by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the comparison of these results with the available PIE data. The objective of this document is to provide all necessary input data to model the benchmark cases, and to give some methodology guidelines and recommendations in order to make all results suitable for comparison with each other. The participants should read this document thoroughly to make sure all the data needed for their calculations is provided in the document. Missing data will be added to a revision of the document if necessary. 09/2016: Tables 6 and 8 updated. AGR-2 input data added

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

(abstract) Automated Constraint Checking of Spacecraft Command Sequences

Making certain that spacecraft command sequences do not violate any constraints is often tedious and expensive in terms of both personnel and software development. To reduce this cost, we have pursued the development of a flexible system for specifying models of spacecraft behavior in response to commands as well as constraints on that behavior. The potential need for modeling complex spacecraft behavior required that the system be designed to be usable both on a conventional workstation and a parallel supercomputer. Finally, it needed to be intuitive enough for the the intended mission operations users to easily design sets of rules and models to automate tedious, resource-consuming constraint checking of commands. We have defined a Specification And Verification Environment (SAVE) for spacecraft flight rules.

automation spacecraft command sequences constraint↗

Chiral extrapolations of the ρ ( 770 ) meson in N f = 2 + 1 lattice QCD simulations

Recent $N_f=2+1$ lattice data for meson-meson scattering in $p$-wave and isospin $I=1$ are analyzed using a unitarized model inspired by Chiral Perturbation Theory in the inverse-amplitude formulation for two and three flavors. We perform chiral extrapolations that postdict phase shifts extracted from experiment quite well. Additionally, the low-energy constants are compared to the ones from a recent analysis of $N_f=2$ lattice QCD simulations to check for the consistency of the hadronic model used here. Some inconsistencies are detected in the fits to $N_f=2+1$ data, in contrast to the previous analysis of $N_f=2$ data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

On the stability of Schwarzschild's triaxial galaxy model

The numerical model for a triaxial galaxy constructed by Schwartzschild (1979) has been tested by means of fully self-consistent three-dimensional n-body numerical experiments that use a representation of this model to start the integration. The integration, study models, initial load, and correcting potential of the experiment are detailed. Preliminary checks included density values, potential values, and integration in potential of an ideal model. The results showed some particle loss and no significant shape change. The model is rugged and robust, and no growing disturbances with growth rate in excess of 0.5 per crossing time could be detected. Runs were done at 50 percent excess halo and with tube orbits reversed.

Smith, B. F.↗

Variations in lithospheric thickness on Venus

Recent analyses of Magellan data have indicated many regions exhibiting topograhic flexure. On Venus, flexure is associated predominantly with coronae and the chasmata with Aphrodite Terra. Modeling of these flexural signatures allows the elastic and mechanical thickness of the lithosphere to be estimated. In areas where the lithosphere is flexed beyond its elastic limit the saturation moment provides information on the strength of the lithosphere. Modeling of 12 flexural features on Venus has indicated lithospheric thicknesses comparable with terrestrial values. This has important implications for the venusian heat budget. Flexure of a thin elastic plate due simultaneously to a line load on a continuous plate and a bending moment applied to the end of a broken plate is considered. The mean radius and regional topographic gradient are also included in the model. Features with a large radius of curvature were selected so that a two-dimensional approximation could be used. Comparisons with an axisymmetric model were made for some features to check the validity of the two-dimensional assumption. The best-fit elastic thickness was found for each profile crossing a given flexural feature. In addition, the surface stress and bending moment at the first zero crossing of each profile were also calculated. Flexural amplitudes and elastic thicknesses obtained for 12 features vary significantly. Three examples of the model fitting procedures are discussed.

Johnson, C. L.↗

RL10A-3-3A Rocket Engine Modeling Project

Two RL10A-3-3A rocket engines comprise the main propulsion system for the Centaur upper stage vehicle. Centaur is used with bod Titan and Atlas launch vehicles, carrying military and civilian payloads from high altitudes into orbit and beyond. The RL10 has delivered highly reliable service for the past 30 years. Recently, however, there have been two in-flight failures which have refocused attention on the RL10. This heightened interest has sparked a desire for an independent RL10 modeling capability within NASA and th Air Force. Pratt & Whitney, which presently has the most detailed model of the RL10, also sees merit in having an independent model which could be used as a cross-check with their own simulations. The Space Propulsion Technology Division (SPTD) at the NASA Lewis Research Center has developed a computer model of the RL10A-3-3A. A project team was formed, consisting of experts in the areas of turbomachinery, combustion, and heat transfer. The overall goal of the project was to provide a model of the entire RL10 rocket engine for government use. In the course of the project, the major engine components have been modeled using a combination of simple correlations and detailed component analysis tools (computer codes). The results of these component analyses were verified with data provided by Pratt & Whitney. Select modeling results and test data curves were then integrated to form the RL10 engine system model The purpose of this report is to introduce the reader to the RL10 rocket engine and to describe the engine system model. The RL10 engine and its application to U.S. launch vehicles are described first, followed by a summary of the SPTD project organization, goals, and accomplishments. Simulated output from the system model are shown in comparison with test and flight data for start transient, steady state, and shut-down transient operations. Detailed descriptions of all component analyses, including those not selected for integration with the system model, are included as appendices.

Binder, Michael↗

Comparison of simulated neutrino emission models with data on Supernova 1987A

Here we compare models of supernova (SN) neutrino emission with the Kamiokande II data on SN 1987A using the Bayesian approach. These models are taken from simulations and are representative of current one-dimensional SN models. We find that models with a brief accretion phase of neutrino emission are the most favored. This result is not affected by varying the overall flux normalization or considering neutrino oscillations. We also check the compatibility of the best-fit models with the data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗

Investigation of Magmatic Activities on Early Mars Using Igneous Mineral Chemistry in Gale Crater, Mars

One objective of rover missions is exploring the geological context of the surroundings. Over the years, igneous petrology and sedimentology have been disconnected, the first investigating magmatic processes and volcanic activities, and the second seeking environmental conditions in the past and assessing the habitability of the planet. Although different, one is related to the other: igneous rocks are altered and broken down, leading to the formation of sedimentary rocks, which can in turn be used to back out the nature of their magmatic source. The Curiosity rover that landed in the 3.7 Gyr old impact crater Gale is traveling through sedimentary rocks. About fifty float rocks have been observed, and several of them with ambiguous texture and composition have been classified as igneous or sedimentary depending on studies such as Jake_M. The composition of several unambiguous igneous rocks has been analyzed [4- 6] but their heterogeneity at a larger instrumental (measurement size < 2 cm) scale prevents the measurement of a bulk composition as performed on Earth. An original approach avoiding these two last issues is to consider igneous mineral chemistry analyzed within igneous and sedimentary rocks to assess magmatic processes that could have formed them. Most Curiosity data are used to explore ancient environmental conditions, and a significant number of compositional analyses are under-explored for constraining magmatic activities. We will present how we can make use of sedimentary data for investigating igneous processes in the vicinity of Gale crater. Geological Context: We focus on the first 750 martian days, corresponding to measurements in a coherent lacustrine sedimentary unit called Bradbury, because all sedimentary rocks were sourced from the same watershed and appear to have a consistent source with minimal alteration [2-3]. Igneous detrital minerals including feldspar and pyroxene, are observed in sedimentary rocks. Monte Carlo models showed that minimal cation loss is observed based on the composition of all Bradbury rocks, implying negligible weathering [3]. Although clay minerals are detected in few rocks [7], chemical compositions of rocks can be explained by a mixture of primary igneous minerals [3]. Variation of composition within Bradbury rocks can be explained by mineral sorting and one distinct source component. While a common magmatic source is suggested, Bradbury sediments likely come from several volcanic eruptions from a single magmatic chamber [9- 10]. The occurrence of alkali minerals like sanidine and K-rich rocks throughout Bradbury supports the presence of a potassic component, likely trachytic, while plagioclase and a mafic composition suggest a basaltic component [8-9]. Instruments: Mineral chemistry can be estimated by three instruments onboard Curiosity. The CheMin instrument enables detection of mineral assemblages using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Using Rietveld refinement, each mineral is identified according to their 1D XRD pattern [11]. Note that distinction between pyroxene minerals is challenging with the CheMin instrument due to overlapping peaks on XRD patterns and low angular resolution of the instrument [12]. Then, using least square regression and optimization algorithms based on unit-cell parameters, mineral chemistry has been estimated by [11]. Plagioclase composition has been estimated using the NaAlSi3O8- CaAl2Si2O8 system and alkali feldspar is based on the NaAlSi3O8-KAlSi3O8 system (stars in Fig.1). Two mudstone samples (John Klein and Cumberland) and one sandstone sample (Windjana) were analyzed by CheMin at Yellowknife Bay and Kimberley, respectively. Figure 1. Ternary diagrams of feldspars (top) and pyroxene (bottom) quadrilateral. Stars correspond to CheMin composition and the gray patches to ChemCam composition. The colored dots are the composition of feldspar and pyroxene that crystallized during fractional crystallization at FMQ+1 of a melt extracted at distinct melting degree during the adiabatic ascent of a primitive mantle composition, without any water (left panels) and with 0.5 wt.% of water (right panels) at distinct pressure. The ChemCam instrument enables the analysis of the chemical compositions of rocks at hundreds of micrometer scale (350-550 μm) using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS), which may provide the composition of minerals when they are larger than the beam spot (>550 μm) [13]. Within >5000 LIBS points, we performed a typical stoichiometric filtering allowing us to distinguish 56 feldspar and 10 pyroxene mineral compositions (grey patches in Fig. 1). Finally, the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) analyzes the composition of rocks with a 1.6 cm diameter spot size. Monte Carlo mass balance modeling allowed [3] to decipher a feldspar range varying between An30 and An40 (Fig. 1). Discussion: Although there could be a more complex history and other ways to form the whole compositional range of igneous minerals analyzed within the Bradbury formation, we are presenting here simple magmatic pathways commonly occurring on Earth using the thermodynamical softwares pMELTS and rhyoliteMELTS [14]. The objective is to find reasonable igneous processes that produce minerals that parallel the compositions of feldspar and pyroxene analyzed by the Curiosity rover. As commonly observed for mid-ocean ridge basalts, the adiabatic ascent of a primitive mantle composition [15] partially melting at 2 GPa has been modeled, followed by the extraction of a liquid at distinct degrees of partial melting, which undergoes fractional crystallization at an oxygen fugacity +1 log unit above the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer within the crust (0.02-0.4 GPa) with H2O = 0- 0.5 wt. %. These latter conditions correspond to those recorded within igneous clasts from the Noachian martian breccia NWA 7034 and paired and within Gale igneous rocks (colored dots in Fig. 1) [16-17]. To check the reliability of these 2-step models, we also tested fractional crystallization at similar conditions (FMQ+1; P=0.02-0.4 GPa; H2O = 0-0.5 wt. %) of starting compositions corresponding to that of magmas with distinct melting degrees obtained from isobaric experiments at 2 GPa [18]. Mineral compositions obtained from both models are similar. As shown on Fig. 1, the whole range of observed feldspar compositions cannot be reproduced by fractionation of one magma only. Indeed, while alkali feldspar and Na-plagioclase likely crystallized from fractional crystallization of a low-degree melt (here <15%), plagioclase and pyroxene can only be formed by fractional crystallization of a higher degree melt (here >19%). The corresponding liquid descent lines are broadly in agreement with compositions estimated by ChemCam corresponding to float igneous rocks (Fig. 2) [4-6]. Figure 2. Silica versus alkali content. Lines show the liquid lines of descent from magmas with distinct degrees of melting. Gray patches represents the composition of Gale igneous rocks [4-6]. Trachytic to rhyolitic magmas crystallize alkali feldspar, and andesite to dacite magmas likely form plagioclase. Therefore, at least two starting magmas at distinct melting degrees, which could easily come from a single mantle source, are necessary to explain the whole compositional range of feldspar and pyroxene analyzed within Bradbury rocks. Conclusion: Because rocks from the Bradbury formation are likely originating from the same magmatic source with minimal weathering as supported by several studies using different approaches, igneous mineral chemistry analyzed by CheMin and ChemCam allows us to back out reasonable magmatic pathways that could have crystallized them. Fractional crystallization of at least two starting magmas originating from distinct melting degrees of a single mantle source can explain the whole range of feldspar and pyroxene composition. Both alkaline and sub-alkaline liquids can be produced, with compositions corresponding to those of the igneous rocks analyzed by ChemCam within the Bradbury formation, highlighting the complexity of Mars magmatism.

Payre, V.↗

KMT-2021-BLG-0322: Severe Degeneracy Between Triple-lens and Higher-order Binary-lens Interpretations

We investigate the microlensing event KMT-2021-BLG-0322, for which the light curve exhibits three distinctive sets of caustic-crossing features. It is found that the overall features of the light curve are approximately described by a binary-lens (2L1S) model, but the model leaves substantial residuals. We test various interpretations with the aim of explaining the residuals. Methods. We find that the residuals can be explained either by considering a nonrectilinear lens-source motion caused by the microlens-parallax and lens-orbital effects or by adding a low-mass companion to the binary lens (3L1S model). The degeneracy between the higher-order 2L1S model and the 3L1S model is very severe, making it difficult to single out a correct solution based on the photometric data. This degeneracy was known before for two previous events (MACHO-97-BLG-41 and OGLE-2013-BLG-0723),which led to the false detections of planets in binary systems, and thus the identification of the degeneracy for KMT-2021-BLG-0322illustrates that the degeneracy can be not only common but also very severe, emphasizing the need to check both interpretations of deviations from 2L1S models. Results. From the Bayesian analysis conducted with the measured lensing observables of the event timescale, angular Einstein radius, and microlens parallax, it was estimated that the binary lens components have masses(M1,M2)=(0.62+0.25−0.26M,0.07+0.03−0.03M), for both2L1S and 3L1S solutions, and the mass of the tertiary lens component according to the 3L1S solution isM3=6.40+2.64−2.78MJ.

Gravitational lensing: micro↗

A Lower Bound on Adiabatic Heating of Compressed Turbulence for Simulation and Model Validation

The energy in turbulent flow can be amplied by compression, when the compression occurs on a timescale shorter than the turbulent dissipation time. This mechanism may play a part in sustaining turbulence in various astrophysical systems, including molecular clouds. The amount of turbulent amplification depends on the net effect of the compressive forcing and turbulent dissipation. By giving an argument for a bound on this dissipation, we give a lower bound for the scaling of the turbulent velocity with compression ratio in compressed turbulence. That is, turbulence undergoing compression will be enhanced at least as much as the bound given here, subject to a set of caveats that will be outlined. Used as a validation check, this lower bound suggests that some models of compressing astrophysical turbulence are too dissipative. As a result, the technique used highlights the relationship between compressed turbulence and decaying turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Activation of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) attenuates allergic airway inflammation in rat asthma model

Angiotensin-I converting enzyme (ACE) is positively correlated to asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and is highly expressed in lungs. ACE2, the counteracting enzyme of ACE, was proven to be protective in pulmonary, cardiovascular diseases. In the present study we checked the effect of ACE2 activation in animal model of asthma. Asthma was induced in male wistar rats by sensitization and challenge with ovalbumin and then treated with ACE2 activator, diminazene aceturate (DIZE) for 2 weeks. 48 h after last allergen challenge, animals were anesthetized, blood, BALF, femoral bone marrow lavage were collected for leucocyte count; trachea for measuring airway responsiveness to carbachol; lungs and heart were isolated for histological studies and western blotting. In our animal model, the characteristic features of asthma such as altered airway responsiveness to carbachol, eosinophilia and neutrophilia were observed. Western blotting revealed the increased pulmonary expression of ACE1, IL-1β, IL-4, NF-κB, BCL2, p-AKT, p-p38 and decreased expression of ACE2 and IκB. DIZE treatment prevented these alterations. Intraalveolar interstitial thickening, inflammatory cell infiltration, interstitial fibrosis, oxidative stress and right ventricular hypertrophy in asthma control animals were also reversed by DIZE treatment. Activation of ACE2 by DIZE conferred protection against asthma as evident from biochemical, functional, histological and molecular parameters. To the best of our knowledge, we report for the first time that activation of ACE2 by DIZE prevents asthma progression by altering AKT, p38, NF-κB and other inflammatory markers. - Highlights: • Diminazene aceturate (DIZE), an ACE2 activator prevents ovalbumin-induced asthma. • DIZE acted by upregulating ACE2, downregulating ACE1, MAPKs, markers of inflammation, apoptosis. • DIZE reduced airway inflammation, fibrosis, right ventricular hypertrophy and restored airway responsiveness.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Vectorization of a particle simulation method for hypersonic rarefied flow

An efficient particle simulation technique for hypersonic rarefied flows is presented at an algorithmic and implementation level. The implementation is for a vector computer architecture, specifically the Cray-2. The method models an ideal diatomic Maxwell molecule with three translational and two rotational degrees of freedom. Algorithms are designed specifically for compatibility with fine grain parallelism by reducing the number of data dependencies in the computation. By insisting on this compatibility, the method is capable of performing simulation on a much larger scale than previously possible. A two-dimensional simulation of supersonic flow over a wedge is carried out for the near-continuum limit where the gas is in equilibrium and the ideal solution can be used as a check on the accuracy of the gas model employed in the method. Also, a three-dimensional, Mach 8, rarefied flow about a finite-span flat plate at a 45 degree angle of attack was simulated. It utilized over 10 to the 7th particles carried through 400 discrete time steps in less than one hour of Cray-2 CPU time. This problem was chosen to exhibit the capability of the method in handling a large number of particles and a true three-dimensional geometry.

Mcdonald, Jeffrey D.↗

Octofitter: Fast, Flexible, and Accurate Orbit Modeling to Detect Exoplanets

As next-generation imaging instruments and interferometers search for planets closer to their stars, they must contend with increasing orbital motion and longer integration times. These compounding effects make it difficult to detect faint planets but also present an opportunity. Increased orbital motion makes it possible to move the search for planets into the orbital domain, where direct images can be freely combined with the radial velocity and proper motion anomaly, even without a confirmed detection in any single epoch. In this paper, we present a fast and differentiable multimethod orbit-modeling and planet detection code called Octofitter. This code is designed to be highly modular and allows users to easily adjust priors, change parameterizations, and specify arbitrary function relations between the parameters of one or more planets. Octofitter further supplies tools for examining model outputs including prior and posterior predictive checks and simulation-based calibration. We demonstrate the capabilities of Octofitter on real and simulated data from different instruments and methods, including HD 91312, simulated JWST/NIRISS aperture masking interferometry observations, radial velocity curves, and grids of images from the Gemini Planet Imager. We show that Octofitter can reliably recover faint planets in long sequences of images with arbitrary orbital motion. This publicly available tool will enable the broad application of multiepoch and multimethod exoplanet detection, which could improve how future targeted ground- and space-based surveys are performed. Finally, its rapid convergence makes it a useful addition to the existing ecosystem of tools for modeling the orbits of directly imaged planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Landman, Drew↗

Geochemical Reaction Mechanism Discovery from Molecular Simulation

Methods to explore reactions using computer simulation are becoming increasingly quantitative, versatile, and robust. In this review, a rationale for how molecular simulation can help build better geochemical kinetics models is first given. We summarize some common methods that geochemists use to simulate reaction mechanisms, specifically classical molecular dynamics and quantum chemical methods and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. Useful tools such as umbrella sampling and metadynamics that enable one to explore reactions are discussed. Several case studies wherein geochemists have used these tools to understand reaction mechanisms are presented, including water exchange and sorption on aqueous species and mineral surfaces, surface charging, crystal growth and dissolution, and electron transfer. The impact that molecular simulation has had on our understanding of geochemical reactivity are highlighted in each case. In the future, it is anticipated that molecular simulation of geochemical reaction mechanisms will become more commonplace as a tool to validate and interpret experimental data, and provide a check on the plausibility of geochemical kinetic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hydrogen Transport in a Model 9979 Shipping Package with Inner Convenience Cans

Radiolytic hydrogen production and accumulation inside containment packages is a concern at any facility responsible for their packaging, storage, transportation, and/or disposal. When hydrogen gas accumulates to concentrations above the Lower Flammability Limit (LFL) which is 4% or 40,000 ppm in air, the possibility of a deflagration or explosion increases. This concern persists over the course of the package lifetime which is unlimited when disposed of by burial or in permanent repositories. Here, we report on a numerical model used to predict the concentration of hydrogen within each layer of a Model 9979 package containing a convenience can assembly. Simulations show the hydrogen concentration to always be highest in the inner convenience can containing the radioactive source. When the radioactive source is within the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Packaging Limits, the hydrogen concentration is shown to remain well below the LFL at all times including packaging, storage, transportation, and disposal. A hydrogen transport model is presented for a Model 9979 package system containing a nested arrangement of convenience cans, which are tin oxide coated steel cans of various sizes with a slip-lid assembly. The inner convenience can contains the radioactive source material along with an unknown quantity of incidental water acquired from humid air or processing. While visible organic materials such as paper and plastics were purposely excluded from the inner can, it is not possible to claim the wastes are entirely organic free. The inner convenience can is tape sealed and placed into a plastic bag which is horsetail closed (i.e., twisted and taped). The bagged can is placed into an outer convenience can that is also tape sealed. The can assembly is then placed into the 30 gallon drum and subsequently placed inside the 55 gallon drum in the 9979 package. Here we assume hydrogen gas is produced in the inner convenience can from alpha radiolysis of water at a rate dependent on the quantity of uranium isotopes and water present. The hydrogen transport model was used to calculate hydrogen accumulations within the package’s five layers at different times and conditions. These simulations serve two purposes; (i) to build confidence in the model by comparing predicted values to measured values, and (ii) to check the steady state hydrogen concentrations that are approached at long times in the package’s lifetime. Model simulations were compared to gas samples taken from the 30 gallon drum after storage at LANL’s Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) building for around 500 days. Hydrogen concentration calculations over much longer periods (i.e., more than 270 years) included extreme storage durations, transportation at extreme cold temperatures, and disposal of packages assuming different average temperatures.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗