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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

An Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Methods Used to Project Regional Climate Change

In the past decade, dynamical downscaling using “pseudo-global-warming” (PGW) techniques has been applied frequently to project regional climate change. Such techniques generate signals by adding mean global climate model (GCM)-simulated climate change signals in temperature, moisture, and circulation to lateral and surface boundary conditions derived from reanalysis. An alternative to PGW is to downscale GCM data directly. This technique should be advantageous, especially for simulation of extremes, since it incorporates the GCM's full spectrum of changing synoptic-scale dynamics in the regional solution. Here, we test this assumption, by comparing simulations in Europe and Western North America. We find that for warming and changes in temperature extremes, PGW often produces similar results to direct downscaling in both regions. For mean and extreme precipitation changes, PGW generally also performs surprisingly well in many cases. Moisture budget analysis in the Western North America domain reveals why. Large fractions of the downscaled hydroclimate changes arise from mean changes in large-scale thermodynamics and circulation, that is, increases in temperature, moisture, and winds, included in PGW by design. The one component PGW may have difficulty with is the contribution from changes in synoptic-scale variability. When this component is large, PGW performance could be degraded. Global analysis of GCM data shows there are regions where it is large or dominant. Hence, our results provide a road map to identify, through GCM analyses, the circumstances when PGW would not be expected to accurately regionalize GCM climate signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Train, Inform, Borrow, or Combine? Approaches to Process–Guided Deep Learning for Groundwater–Influenced Stream Temperature Prediction

Although groundwater discharge is a critical stream temperature control process, it is not explicitly represented in many stream temperature models, an omission that may reduce predictive accuracy, hinder management of aquatic habitat, and decrease user confidence. We assessed the performance of a previously-described process-guided deep learning model of stream temperature in the Delaware River Basin (USA). We found lower accuracy (root mean square error [RMSE] of 1.71 versus 1.35°C) and stronger seasonal bias (absolute mean monthly bias of 1.06 vs. 0.68°C) for reaches primarily influenced by deep groundwater as compared to atmospheric conditions. We then tested four approaches for improving groundwater process representation: (a) a custom loss function leveraging the unique patterns of air and water temperature coupling characteristic of different temperature drivers, (b) inclusion of additional groundwater-relevant catchment attributes, (c) incorporation of additional process model outputs, and (d) a composite model. The custom loss function and the additional attributes significantly improved the predictive accuracy in groundwater-dominated reaches (RMSE of 1.37 and 1.26°C) and reduced the seasonal bias (absolute mean monthly bias of 0.44 and 0.48°C), but neither approach could identify holdout groundwater reaches. Variable importance analysis indicates the custom loss function nudges the model to use the existing inputs more efficiently, whereas with the added features the model relies on a broader suite of inputs. This analysis is a substantial step toward more accurately representing groundwater discharge processes in stream temperature models and will improve predictive accuracy and inform habitat management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback

Abstract How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low‐cloud feedback (0.45 W , 90% range 0.18–0.72 W ), about twice the mean value (0.22 W ) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean‐state bias: models underestimate the low‐cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present‐day tropical marine low‐cloud amount, and (b) the low‐cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present‐day low‐cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part I: Model Description and Thermal Properties

We present the GFDL‐CM4X (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 4X) coupled climate model hierarchy. The primary application for CM4X is to investigate ocean and sea ice physics as part of a realistic coupled Earth climate model. CM4X utilizes an updated MOM6 (Modular Ocean Model version 6) ocean physics package relative to CM4.0, and there are two members of the hierarchy: one that uses a horizontal grid spacing of 0.25° (referred to as CM4X‐p25) and the other that uses a grid 0.125° (CM4X‐p125). CM4X also refines its atmospheric grid from the nominally 100 km (cubed sphere C96) of CM4.0–50 km (C192). Finally, CM4X simplifies the land model to allow for a more focused study of the role of ocean changes to global mean climate. CM4X‐p125 reaches a global ocean area mean heat flux imbalance of -0.02 W m -2 within $\mathcal{O}$ (150) years in a pre‐industrial simulation, and retains that thermally equilibrated state over the subsequent centuries. This 1850 thermal equilibrium is characterized by roughly 400 ZJ less ocean heat than present‐day, which corresponds to estimates for anthropogenic ocean heat uptake between 1870 and present‐day. CM4X‐p25 approaches its thermal equilibrium only after more than 1000 years, at which time its ocean has roughly 1100 ZJ more heat than its early 21st century ocean initial state. Furthermore, the root‐mean‐square sea surface temperature bias for historical simulations is roughly 20% smaller in CM4X‐p125 relative to CM4X‐p25 (and CM4.0). We offer the mesoscale dominance hypothesis for why CM4X‐p125 shows such favorable thermal equilibration properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Many-body factorization and position–momentum equivalence of nuclear short-range correlations

While mean-field approximations, such as the nuclear shell model, provide a good description of many bulk nuclear properties, they fail to capture the important effects of nucleon–nucleon correlations such as the short-distance and high-momentum components of the nuclear many-body wave function1. Here, we study these components using the effective pair-based generalized contact formalism and ab initio quantum Monte Carlo calculations of nuclei from deuteron to 40 Ca. We observe a universal factorization of the many-body nuclear wave function at short distance into a strongly interacting pair and a weakly interacting residual system. The residual system distribution is consistent with that of an uncorrelated system, showing that short-distance correlation effects are predominantly embedded in two-body correlations. Spin- and isospin-dependent ‘nuclear contact terms’ are extracted in both coordinate and momentum space for different realistic nuclear potentials. The contact coefficient ratio between two different nuclei shows very little dependence on the nuclear interaction model. These findings thus allow extending the application of mean-field approximations to short-range correlated pair formation by showing that the relative abundance of short-range pairs in the nucleus is a long-range (that is, mean field) quantity that is insensitive to the short-distance nature of the nuclear force.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spectroscopic confirmation of a mature galaxy cluster at a redshift of 2

Galaxy clusters are the most massive virialized structures in the Universe and are formed through the gravitational accretion of matter over cosmic time. The discovery of an evolved galaxy cluster at redshift z = 2, corresponding to a look-back time of 10.4 billion years, provides an opportunity to study its properties. The galaxy cluster XLSSC 122 was originally detected as a faint, extended X-ray source in the XMM Large Scale Structure survey and was revealed to be coincident with a compact over-density of galaxies with photometric redshifts of 1.9 ± 0.2. Subsequent observations at millimetre wavelengths detected a Sunyaev–Zel’dovich decrement along the line of sight to XLSSC 122, thus confirming the existence of hot intracluster gas, while deep imaging spectroscopy from the European Space Agency’s X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission (XMM-Newton) revealed an extended, X-ray-bright gaseous atmosphere with a virial temperature of 60 million Kelvin, enriched with metals to the same extent as are local clusters. Here we report optical spectroscopic observations of XLSSC 122 and identify 37 member galaxies at a mean redshift of 1.98, corresponding to a look-back time of 10.4 billion years. We use photometry to determine a mean, dust-free stellar age of 2.98 billion years, indicating that star formation commenced in these galaxies at a mean redshift of 12, when the Universe was only 370 million years old. The full range of inferred formation redshifts, including the effects of dust, covers the interval from 7 to 13. These observations confirm that XLSSC 122 is a remarkably mature galaxy cluster with both evolved stellar populations in the member galaxies and a hot, metal-rich gas composing the intracluster medium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The global spectrum of plant form and function: enhanced species-level trait dataset

Here we provide the ‘Global Spectrum of Plant Form and Function Dataset’, containing species mean values for six vascular plant traits. Together, these traits –plant height, stem specific density, leaf area, leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen content per dry mass, and diaspore (seed or spore) mass – define the primary axes of variation in plant form and function. The dataset is based on ca. 1 million trait records received via the TRY database (representing ca. 2,500 original publications) and additional unpublished data. It provides 92,159 species mean values for the six traits, covering 46,047 species. The data are complemented by higher-level taxonomic classification and six categorical traits (woodiness, growth form, succulence, adaptation to terrestrial or aquatic habitats, nutrition type and leaf type). Data quality management is based on a probabilistic approach combined with comprehensive validation against expert knowledge and external information. Intense data acquisition and thorough quality control produced the largest and, to our knowledge, most accurate compilation of empirically observed vascular plant species mean traits to date.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating massively parallel hemodynamic models of coarctation of the aorta using neural networks

Comorbidities such as anemia or hypertension and physiological factors related to exertion can influence a patient’s hemodynamics and increase the severity of many cardiovascular diseases. Observing and quantifying associations between these factors and hemodynamics can be difficult due to the multitude of co-existing conditions and blood flow parameters in real patient data. Machine learning-driven, physics-based simulations provide a means to understand how potentially correlated conditions may affect a particular patient. Here, we use a combination of machine learning and massively parallel computing to predict the effects of physiological factors on hemodynamics in patients with coarctation of the aorta. We first validated blood flow simulations against in vitro measurements in 3D-printed phantoms representing the patient’s vasculature. We then investigated the effects of varying the degree of stenosis, blood flow rate, and viscosity on two diagnostic metrics – pressure gradient across the stenosis (ΔP) and wall shear stress (WSS) - by performing the largest simulation study to date of coarctation of the aorta (over 70 million compute hours). Using machine learning models trained on data from the simulations and validated on two independent datasets, we developed a framework to identify the minimal training set required to build a predictive model on a per-patient basis. We then used this model to accurately predict ΔP (mean absolute error within 1.18 mmHg) and WSS (mean absolute error within 0.99 Pa) for patients with this disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling four decades of intensifying precipitation from tropical cyclones using satellite measurements

Increases in precipitation rates and volumes from tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by anthropogenic warming are predicted by climate modeling studies and have been identified in several high intensity storms occurring over the last half decade. However, it has been difficult to detect historical trends in TC precipitation at time scales long enough to overcome natural climate variability because of limitations in existing precipitation observations. We introduce an experimental global high-resolution climate data record of precipitation produced using infrared satellite imagery and corrected at the monthly scale by a gauge-derived product that shows generally good performance during two hurricane case studies but estimates higher mean precipitation rates in the tropics than the evaluation datasets. General increases in mean and extreme rainfall rates during the study period of 1980–2019 are identified, culminating in a 12–18%/40-year increase in global rainfall rates. Overall, all basins have experienced intensification in precipitation rates. Increases in rainfall rates have boosted the mean precipitation volume of global TCs by 7–15% over 40 years, with the starkest rises seen in the North Atlantic, South Indian, and South Pacific basins (maximum 59–64% over 40 years). In terms of inland rainfall totals, year-by-year trends are generally positive due to increasing TC frequency, slower decay over land, and more intense rainfall, with an alarming increase of 81–85% seen from the strongest global TCs. As the global trend in precipitation rates follows expectations from warming sea surface temperatures (11.1%/°C), we hypothesize that the observed trends could be a result of anthropogenic warming creating greater concentrations of water vapor in the atmosphere, though retrospective studies of TC dynamics over the period are needed to confirm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K −1 , which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surface warming in global cities is substantially more rapid than in rural background areas

Warming trends in cities are influenced both by large-scale climate processes and by local-scale urbanization. However, little is known about how surface warming trends of global cities differ from those characterized by weather observations in the rural background. Here, through statistical analyses of satellite land surface temperatures (2002 to 2021), we find that the mean surface warming trend is 0.50 ± 0.20 K·decade –1 (mean ± one S.D.) in the urban core of 2000-plus city clusters worldwide, and is 29% greater than the trend for the rural background. On average, background climate change is the largest contributor explaining 0.30 ± 0.11 K·decade –1 of the urban surface warming. In city clusters in China and India, however, more than 0.23 K·decade –1 of the mean trend is attributed to urban expansion. We also find evidence of urban greening in European cities, which offsets 0.13 ± 0.034 K·decade –1 of background surface warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Carnegie Supernova Project I: Spectroscopic analysis of stripped-envelope supernovae

An analysis leveraging 170 optical spectra of 35 stripped-envelope (SE) core-collapse supernovae (SNe) observed by the Carnegie Supernova Project I and published in a companion paper is presented. Mean template spectra were constructed for the SNe IIb, Ib, and Ic subtypes, and parent ions associated with designated spectral features are identified with the aid of the spectral synthesis code SYNAPPS. Our modeled mean spectra suggest the ~6150 Å feature in SNe IIb may have an underlying contribution due to silicon, while the same feature in some SNe Ib may have an underlying contribution due to hydrogen. Standard spectral line diagnostics consisting of pseudo-equivalent widths (pEWs) and blue-shifted Doppler velocity were measured for each of the spectral features. Correlation matrices and rolling mean values of both spectral diagnostics were constructed. A principle component analysis (PCA) was applied to various wavelength ranges of the entire dataset and suggests clear separation among the different SE SN subtypes, which follows from trends previously identified in the literature. In addition, our findings reveal the presence of two SNe IIb subtypes, a select number of SNe Ib displaying signatures of weak, high-velocity hydrogen, and a single SN Ic with evidence of weak helium features. Our PCA results can be leveraged to obtain robust subtyping of SE SNe based on a single spectrum taken during the so-called photospheric phase, separating SNe IIb from SNe Ib with ~80% completion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observation of weakly damped modes using high resolution measurement of turbulence in a dipole confined plasma

When plasma is confined by a levitated superconducting current ring, the turbulent radial particle flux changes the direction depending upon the gradient of the particle number within tubes of equal magnetic flux [Garnier et al., Phys. Plasmas 24, 012506 (2017)]. When the density profile is highly peaked, the particle flux is outward. When the density profile is less peaked, turbulence drives an inward “particle pinch.” This change in the direction of particle flux coincides with a reversal of the mean toroidal propagation direction of turbulent fluctuations. Previously, only the mean wavenumber of the fluctuations was reported. The mean wavenumber was computed from the ensemble correlation between two probes. Here, the full frequency-wavenumber power spectrum of the saturated turbulence is calculated by applying Capon’s “maximum likelihood method” to floating potential measurements from an array of probes. The power spectrum shows that the highest intensity modes are due to unstable entropy modes, and the less intense modes coincide with weakly damped convective cells, which rotate toroidally in the direction opposite to the unstable modes. Because the weakly damped modes make up a significant fraction of the fluctuating power, these measurements imply that saturated turbulence in a dipole-confined plasma involves the excitation of weakly damped rotating convective cells.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

TurboRVB: A many-body toolkit for ab initio electronic simulations by quantum Monte Carlo

TurboRVB is a computational package for ab initio Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulations of both molecular and bulk electronic systems. The code implements two types of well established QMC algorithms: Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) and diffusion Monte Carlo in its robust and efficient lattice regularized variant. A key feature of the code is the possibility of using strongly correlated many-body wave functions (WFs), capable of describing several materials with very high accuracy, even when standard mean-field approaches [e.g., density functional theory (DFT)] fail. The electronic WF is obtained by applying a Jastrow factor, which takes into account dynamical correlations, to the most general mean-field ground state, written either as an antisymmetrized geminal power with spin-singlet pairing or as a Pfaffian, including both singlet and triplet correlations. This WF can be viewed as an efficient implementation of the so-called resonating valence bond (RVB) Ansatz, first proposed by Pauling and Anderson in quantum chemistry [L. Pauling, The Nature of the Chemical Bond (Cornell University Press, 1960)] and condensed matter physics [P.W. Anderson, Mat. Res. Bull 8, 153 (1973)], respectively. The RVB Ansatz implemented in TurboRVB has a large variational freedom, including the Jastrow correlated Slater determinant as its simplest, but nontrivial case. Moreover, it has the remarkable advantage of remaining with an affordable computational cost, proportional to the one spent for the evaluation of a single Slater determinant. Therefore, its application to large systems is computationally feasible. The WF is expanded in a localized basis set. Several basis set functions are implemented, such as Gaussian, Slater, and mixed types, with no restriction on the choice of their contraction. The code implements the adjoint algorithmic differentiation that enables a very efficient evaluation of energy derivatives, comprising the ionic forces. Thus, one can perform structural optimizations and molecular dynamics in the canonical NVT ensemble at the VMC level. For the electronic part, a full WF optimization (Jastrow and antisymmetric parts together) is made possible, thanks to state-of-the-art stochastic algorithms for energy minimization. In the optimization procedure, the first guess can be obtained at the mean-field level by a built-in DFT driver. The code was efficiently parallelized by using a hybrid MPI-OpenMP protocol, which is also an ideal environment for exploiting the computational power of modern Graphics Processing Unit accelerators.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Look Inside the Black Box: Using graph-theoretical descriptors to interpret a Continuous-Filter Convolutional Neural Network (CF-CNN) trained on the global and local minimum energy structures of neutral water clusters

A Continuous Filter Convolutional Neural Network (CF-CNN) was trained to predict the potential energy of water cluster networks \ce{(H2O)_{\textit{N}}}, \textit{N}=10--30, corresponding to local minima lying within 5 kcal/mol from the putative minima taken from a newly published database containing over 5 million unique networks. The chemical sampling space of the database was characterized using chemical descriptors derived from graph theory, which led to the identification of important trends in the topology, connectivity, polygon structures associated with the various networks as a function of cluster size. The resulting graphs are available alongside the original database at \url{https://sites.uw.edu/wdbase/}. The CF-CNN trained on a subset of 500,000 networks for (\textit{N}=10, 30) yielded a mean absolute error of 0.002$\pm$0.002 kcal/mol per water molecule, giving the trained CF-CNN the highest accuracy of any neural network-based surrogate model to date. In addition, clusters of sizes not included in the training set exhibited errors of the same magnitude, indicating that the CF-CNN ptotocol is general enough to accurately predict energies of networks for both smaller and larger sizes than those used during training. The graph-theoretical descriptors were developed in order to analyze the properties of the full database and interpret the predictive power of the CF-CNN. Using topology measures, such as the Wiener index and the average shortest path length along with two similarity measures, we showed that all networks from the test set were within the range of the ones from the training set, suggesting that the training set covered the chemical space of interest quite well. Our graph analysis suggests that the mean degree and number of polygons for networks with larger errors tend to lie further from the mean than those with lower errors. The generality of the used CF-CNN was thus demonstrated, while the use of the graph-theoretical descriptors assisted in interpreting the predicted results.

Bilbrey, Jenna A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of areal-density asymmetries on the loss of confinement and ignition threshold in inertial confinement fusion capsules

In inertial confinement fusion implosion experiments, variations in the shell areal density reduce the shell’s inertia to confine the core pressure. Distorted capsules with large areal-density modulations decompress faster than uniform capsules in the disassembly phase. A simple 3-D analytic hot-spot model is derived to include the effects of low-mode areal-density modulations in the ignition criterion. The generalized 3-D ignition criterion for low modes is shown to depend on both the harmonic mean and the arithmetic mean of the areal density. Here, the “thin spots” in the shell are shown to dominate the loss of confinement as reflected by the harmonic mean definition of areal densities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The role of surfaces in flexoelectricity

We develop the relationship between the strain derivative of the mean-inner potential and surface contributions to flexoelectricity, identifying the true surface-specific component of the flexoelectric response of finite samples. Density functional theory calculations on a range of experimentally observed, low energy SrTiO 3 , MgO, and Si surfaces demonstrate that the mean-inner potential and its contributions to flexoelectricity are sensitive to small differences in surface structure, chemistry, and adsorbates. We also introduce a method to estimate mean-inner potential contributions to flexoelectricity using electron scattering factors and use this approximation to predict total flexoelectric responses for a variety of insulators. Strategies to experimentally disentangle bulk and surface flexoelectric terms are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel data gaps filling method for solar PV output forecasting

This study proposes a modified gaps filling method, expanding the column mean imputation method and evaluated using randomly generated missing values comprising 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of the original data on power output. The XGBoost algorithm was implemented as a forecasting model using the original and processed datasets and two sources of solar radiation data, namely, Shortwave Radiation (SWR) from Advanced Himawari Imager 8 (AHI-8) and Surface Solar Radiation Downward (SSRD) from ERA5 global reanalysis data. Further, the accuracy of the two sets of forecasted power output was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results show that by applying the proposed gap filling method and using SWR in forecasting solar photovoltaic (PV) output, the improvement in the RMSE and MAE values range from 12.52% to 24.30% and from 21.10% to 31.31%, respectively. Meanwhile, using SSRD, the improvement in the RMSE values range from 14.01% to 28.54% and MAE values from 22.39% to 35.53%. To further evaluate the accuracy of the proposed gap-filling method, the proposed method could be validated using different datasets and other forecasting methods. Future studies could also consider applying the said method to datasets with data gaps higher than 20%.

Energy & Fuels↗