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At least 613 records · Page 34

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

How data science methods can improve the quality and efficiency of ICF and HEDP research

Data Science methods (many that are Bayesian based) are widely used in the physical sciences to estimate model parameters from experimental data, synthesize heterogeneous data, calibrate models, design experiments, and determine statistical significance of data. These methods provide a wealth of advantages over traditional analysis techniques because: 1) uncertainties are rigorously defined and propagated naturally through complex systems including covariance, 2) prior information is captured within the analysis framework (including rad-MHD and rad-hydro simulations), 3) competing models can be selected and/or ruled out using quantitative criteria, and 4) complex, heterogeneous data can be incorporated simultaneously. While these methods have been widely adopted as the gold standard in fields such as particle physics, astronomy, and biology, they have been slow to catch on in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) and High Energy Density Physics (HEDP) research. Recently, several teams at LLNL, SNL, LANL, and the LLE have been exploring the use of these tools in their research and have found success. Here we propose that a concerted effort to consolidate these independent research efforts by developing and deploying common tools for use across the complex can revolutionize the way we approach data analysis, assimilation of theory and experiment, and decision making. The Bayesian formalism provides a means to accomplish this, but we are lacking certain infrastructure to make it happen on a large scale. Furthermore, once adopted, these techniques can be used to develop standards by which discoveries can be judged, similar to the so-called 5σ rule in high energy particle physics. Such standards may be used in the future to address the issue of unknown reproducibility in ICF and HED experiments caused by low shot rate and high cost per experiment. Our goals as a group are to advance the state of the art in HED measurement science by enabling: 1) better inferences from data with well-defined uncertainties, 2) better use of the data we have and continue to collect, 3) intelligent synthesis of data, 4) evaluation of the statistical significance of our data, and 5) informed decision making regarding the design of new experiments and instruments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Correcting the PFNS for more consistent fission modeling

For FY20, we had a deliverable to write a report detailing efforts to simultaneously evaluate both the prompt neutron multiplicity, $\overline{ν}$, and the prompt neutron fission neutron spectrum, PFNS, using CGMF. CGMF is the LANL-developed fission fragment decay code that consistently evaporates prompt neutrons and γ rays using the Hauser-Feshbach statistical theory of compound reactions. The decay begins by constructing the initial conditions of the fission fragments, then decaying each one from the excited state by neutrons and γ rays, conserving energy, momentum, spin, and parity in each step of the emission. The initial conditions of the fragments, along with the multiplicity, energy, and direction of each emitted neutron or γ ray, are recorded, allowing for the full reconstruction of the fission event. These event histories allow us to reconstruct average quantities, as well as correlations between observables, that can be compared with experimental or evaluated data. In that initial report, although there was already a favorable comparison between $\overline{ν}$ from CGMF, experiment, and the current ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation, we showed that there was still significant work to be done to improve the PFNS from CGMF. Historically, the PFNS is calculated too soft by Hauser-Feshbach fission models, and CGMF is no exception. The incorrect shape presents a significant challenge in fission modeling, including for our understanding of the fission process and for our ability to consistently calculate and predict a variety of prompt fission observables (such as fission fragment initial conditions, neutron and γ-ray multiplicities and energies, and the correlations between all observables). In our companion report, we detail our success in using CGMF to evaluate $\overline{ν}$. Although not included in the optimization explicitly, we also keep the initial conditions of the fission fragments physical, along with reproducing reasonably well the neutron multiplicity distribution. As we would expect from the sensitivities calculations from, the average neutron energies change very little from the $\overline{ν}$ optimization along with the PFNS (as will be shown in Sec. 2.6). The conclusion was that the global and statistical models would have to be investigated instead of just the fission fragment initial conditions (as is sufficient for $\overline{ν}$). This report details those efforts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recovery of Damaged Information and the Out-of-Time-Ordered Correlators

The evolution with a complex Hamiltonian generally leads to information scrambling. A time-reversed dynamics unwinds this scrambling and thus leads to the original information recovery. In this work, we show that if the scrambled information is, in addition, partially damaged by a local measurement, then such a damage can still be treated by application of the time-reversed protocol. This information recovery is described by the long-time saturation value of a certain out-of-time-ordered correlator of local variables. We also propose a simple test that distinguishes between quantum and reversible classical chaotic information scrambling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1990

Scattering measurements on natural and model trees

The acoustical back scattering from a simple scale model of a tree has been experimentally measured. The model consisted of a trunk and six limbs, each with 4 branches; no foliage or twigs were included. The data from the anechoic chamber measurements were then mathematically combined to construct the effective back scattering from groups of trees. Also, initial measurements have been conducted out-of-doors on a single tree in an open field in order to characterize its acoustic scattering as a function of azimuth angle. These measurements were performed in the spring, prior to leaf development. The data support a statistical model of forest scattering; the scattered signal spectrum is highly irregular but with a remarkable general resemblance to the incident signal spectrum. Also, the scattered signal's spectra showed little dependence upon scattering angle.

Rogers, James C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Logic Formalisms to Support Mishap Analysis

The increasing complexity of many safety critical systems poses new problems for mishap analysis. Techniques developed in the sixties and seventies cannot easily scale-up to analyze incidents involving tightly integrated software and hardware components. Similarly, the realization that many failures have systemic causes has widened the scope of many mishap investigations. Organizations, including NASA and the NTSB, have responded by starting research and training initiatives to ensure that their personnel are well equipped to meet these challenges. One strand of research has identified a range of mathematically based techniques that can be used to reason about the causes of complex, adverse events. The proponents of these techniques have argued that they can be used to formally prove that certain events created the necessary and sufficient causes for a mishap to occur. Mathematical proofs can reduce the bias that is often perceived to effect the interpretation of adverse events. Others have opposed the introduction of these techniques by identifying social and political aspects to incident investigation that cannot easily be reconciled with a logic-based approach. Traditional theorem proving mechanisms cannot accurately capture the wealth of inductive, deductive and statistical forms of inference that investigators routinely use in their analysis of adverse events. This paper summarizes some of the benefits that logics provide, describes their weaknesses, and proposes a number of directions for future research.

Johnson, C. W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI peculiar velocity survey – Fundamental Plane

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) peculiar velocity survey aims to measure the peculiar velocities of early- and late-type galaxies within the DESI footprint using both the Fundamental Plane and optical Tully–Fisher relations. Direct measurements of peculiar velocities can significantly improve constraints on the growth rate of structure, reducing uncertainty by a factor of approximately 2.5 at redshift 0.1 compared to the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey’s redshift space distortion measurements alone. We assess the quality of stellar velocity dispersion measurements from DESI spectroscopic data. These measurements, along with photometric data from the Legacy Survey, establish the Fundamental Plane relation and determine distances and peculiar velocities of early-type galaxies. During survey validation, we obtain spectra for 6698 unique early-type galaxies, up to a photometric redshift of 0.15. 64 per cent of observed galaxies (4267) have relative velocity dispersion errors below 10 per cent. This percentage increases to 75 per cent if we restrict our sample to galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts below 0.1. We use the measured central velocity dispersion, along with photometry from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys, to fit the Fundamental Plane parameters using a 3D Gaussian maximum likelihood algorithm that accounts for measurement uncertainties and selection cuts. In addition, we conduct zero-point calibration using the absolute distance measurements to the Coma cluster, leading to a value of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 76.05 ± 0.35 (statistical) ±0.49 (systematic Fundamental Plane) ±4.86 (statistical due to calibration) km s –1 Mpc –1 ⁠. This H 0 value is within 2σ of Planck cosmic microwave background results and within 1σ of other low-redshift distance indicator-based measurements.

cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2023

Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

When polygenic risk score (PRS) is derived from summary statistics, independence between discovery and test sets cannot be monitored. We compared two types of PRS studies derived from raw genetic data (denoted as rPRS) and the summary statistics for IGAP (sPRS). Two variables with the high heritability in UK Biobank, hypertension, and height, are used to derive an exemplary scale effect of PRS. sPRS without APOE is derived from International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP), which records ΔAUC and ΔR 2 of 0.051 ± 0.013 and 0.063 ± 0.015 for Alzheimer’s Disease Sequencing Project (ADSP) and 0.060 and 0.086 for Accelerating Medicine Partnership - Alzheimer’s Disease (AMP-AD). On UK Biobank, rPRS performances for hypertension assuming a similar size of discovery and test sets are 0.0036 ± 0.0027 (ΔAUC) and 0.0032 ± 0.0028 (ΔR 2 ). For height, ΔR 2 is 0.029 ± 0.0037. Considering the high heritability of hypertension and height of UK Biobank and sample size of UK Biobank, sPRS results from AD databases are inflated. Independence between discovery and test sets is a well-known basic requirement for PRS studies. However, a lot of PRS studies cannot follow such requirements because of impossible direct comparisons when using summary statistics. Thus, for sPRS, potential duplications should be carefully considered within the same ethnic group.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Verification and Validation of the New MCNP6.3 Criticality Features [Slides]

This presentation touches on a separate MCNP6.3 V&V document reports on all the default calculations for all test suites. Here, we look at new optional features of the MCNP6.3 code with Fission-matrix-based options, Convergence and population testing, and Automated acceleration of the fission source additionally Doppler Broadening Resonance Correction. Also touched on are validation benchmarks: criticality, crit_expanded, and Rossi-α. All the new MCNP6.3 options give statistically equivalent results and either provide a reduction or no change in computational cost. We consider giving these new features a try and using them for all criticality calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radiation Safety Information Computational Center (RSICC) [Slides]

This presentation touches on the Radiation Safety Information Computational Center (RSICC). This Lecture provides general mission, statistics, and strategies. A general background is provided of the tool. Licensee agreements and export control agreements are discussed. The presentation finishes with a look at the most in demand and requested software packages.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A hybrid calibration approach to Hertz-type contact parameters for discrete element models

This study aims at providing a hybrid calibration framework to estimate Hertz-type contact parameters (particle-scale shear modulus and Poisson ratio) for both two-dimensional and three-dimensional discrete element modelling (DEM). On the basis of statistically isotropic granular packings, a set of analytical formulae between macroscopic material parameters (Young modulus and Poisson ratio) and particle-scale Hertz-type contact parameters for granular systems are derived under small-strain isotropic stress conditions. However, the derived analytical solutions are only estimated values for general models. By viewing each DEM modelling as an implicit mathematical function taking the particle-level parameters as independent variables and employing the derived analytical solutions as the initial input parameters, an automatic iterative scheme is proposed to obtain the calibrated parameters with higher accuracies. Considering highly nonlinear features and discontinuities of the macro-micro relationship in Hertz-based discrete element models, the adaptive moment estimation algorithm is adopted in this study because of its capacity of dealing with noise gradients of cost functions. Here, the proposed method is validated with several numerical cases including randomly distributed monodisperse and polydisperse packings. Noticeable improvements in terms of calibration efficiency and accuracy have been made.

Constitutive law↗

NASA NTRS1975

The use of subjective expert opinions in cost optimum design of aerospace structures

The results of two questionnaires sent to engineering experts are statistically analyzed and compared with objective data from Saturn V design and testing. Engineers were asked how likely it was for structural failure to occur at load increments above and below analysts' stress limit predictions. They were requested to estimate the relative probabilities of different failure causes, and of failure at each load increment given a specific cause. Three mathematical models are constructed based on the experts' assessment of causes. The experts' overall assessment of prediction strength fits the Saturn V data better than the models do, but a model test option (T-3) based on the overall assessment gives more design change likelihood to overstrength structures than does an older standard test option. T-3 compares unfavorably with the standard option in a cost optimum structural design problem. The report reflects a need for subjective data when objective data are unavailable.

Thomas, J. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

On MCNP Stochastic Volume Estimation Normalization

This paper resolves a perennial point of confusion regarding the source-weighting normalization factor recommended in the MCNP manual (𝜋⁢𝑟 2 ) to stochastically estimate the volume of a region within an enclosing inward-directed spherical surface source with radius 𝑟. The normalization factor arises from the relationship between a sphere’ s mean chord length, its volume, and the values estimated by MCNP track-length tallies. A brief derivation is given that relates these quantities and results in the stated normalization. The correctness of this factor is demonstrated by estimating the volume of a variety of convex and nonconvex volumes. A heuristic demonstration of how biasing the inward-directed source reduces the statistical uncertainty of the stochastic volume estimate is also given, but a rigorous analysis of this improvement is left as future work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Approach to Accurate, Precise, and Fast Detector Simulation and Reconstruction

Detector simulation and reconstruction are a significant computational bottleneck in particle physics. Here, we develop particle-flow neural-assisted simulations (parnassus) to address this challenge. Our deep learning model takes as input a point cloud (particles impinging on a detector) and produces a point cloud (reconstructed particles). By combining detector simulations and reconstruction into one step, we aim to minimize resource utilization and enable fast surrogate models suitable for application both inside and outside large collaborations. We demonstrate this approach using a publicly available dataset of jets passed through the full simulation and reconstruction pipeline of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment. We show that parnassus accurately mimics the CMS particle flow algorithm on the (statistically) same events it was trained on and can generalize to jet momentum and type outside of the training distribution.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Emulation Methods for Computer Models with High Dimensional Output

This Master’s Capstone project will present a comparison of statistical models for computer simulation studies. The four models included in this comparison study were chosen for both their proven and diverse methodologies. We will present a case study on hurricane flood data in the Delaware bay which highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model when applied to a very large spatial field. As computers have gotten faster, we have become interested in modeling increasingly large spatial fields in both size and resolution. Statistical algorithms that are able to efficiently handle these fields have never been more important. We therefore find this comparison to be extremely topical.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mathematical algorithms for approximate reasoning

Most state of the art expert system environments contain a single and often ad hoc strategy for approximate reasoning. Some environments provide facilities to program the approximate reasoning algorithms. However, the next generation of expert systems should have an environment which contain a choice of several mathematical algorithms for approximate reasoning. To meet the need for validatable and verifiable coding, the expert system environment must no longer depend upon ad hoc reasoning techniques but instead must include mathematically rigorous techniques for approximate reasoning. Popular approximate reasoning techniques are reviewed, including: certainty factors, belief measures, Bayesian probabilities, fuzzy logic, and Shafer-Dempster techniques for reasoning. A group of mathematically rigorous algorithms for approximate reasoning are focused on that could form the basis of a next generation expert system environment. These algorithms are based upon the axioms of set theory and probability theory. To separate these algorithms for approximate reasoning various conditions of mutual exclusivity and independence are imposed upon the assertions. Approximate reasoning algorithms presented include: reasoning with statistically independent assertions, reasoning with mutually exclusive assertions, reasoning with assertions that exhibit minimum overlay within the state space, reasoning with assertions that exhibit maximum overlay within the state space (i.e. fuzzy logic), pessimistic reasoning (i.e. worst case analysis), optimistic reasoning (i.e. best case analysis), and reasoning with assertions with absolutely no knowledge of the possible dependency among the assertions. A robust environment for expert system construction should include the two modes of inference: modus ponens and modus tollens. Modus ponens inference is based upon reasoning towards the conclusion in a statement of logical implication, whereas modus tollens inference is based upon reasoning away from the conclusion. These algorithms allow one to reason accurately with uncertain data. The above environment can replicate state-f-the-art expert system environments which provides a continuity between the current expert systems which cannot be validated or verified and future expert systems which should be both validated and verified

Murphy, John H.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A mathematical model of diurnal variations in human plasma melatonin levels

Studies in animals and humans suggest that the diurnal pattern in plasma melatonin levels is due to the hormone's rates of synthesis, circulatory infusion and clearance, circadian control of synthesis onset and offset, environmental lighting conditions, and error in the melatonin immunoassay. A two-dimensional linear differential equation model of the hormone is formulated and is used to analyze plasma melatonin levels in 18 normal healthy male subjects during a constant routine. Recently developed Bayesian statistical procedures are used to incorporate correctly the magnitude of the immunoassay error into the analysis. The estimated parameters [median (range)] were clearance half-life of 23.67 (14.79-59.93) min, synthesis onset time of 2206 (1940-0029), synthesis offset time of 0621 (0246-0817), and maximum N-acetyltransferase activity of 7.17(2.34-17.93) pmol x l(-1) x min(-1). All were in good agreement with values from previous reports. The difference between synthesis offset time and the phase of the core temperature minimum was 1 h 15 min (-4 h 38 min-2 h 43 min). The correlation between synthesis onset and the dim light melatonin onset was 0.93. Our model provides a more physiologically plausible estimate of the melatonin synthesis onset time than that given by the dim light melatonin onset and the first reliable means of estimating the phase of synthesis offset. Our analysis shows that the circadian and pharmacokinetics parameters of melatonin can be reliably estimated from a single model.

NASA Discipline Number 70-10↗

NASA NTRS1989

A mathematical model of physiological processes and its application to the study of aging

The behavior of a physiological system which, after displacement, returns by homeostatic mechanisms to its original condition can be described by a simple differential equation in which the "recovery time" is a parameter. Two such systems, which influence one another, can be linked mathematically by the use of "coupling" or "feedback" coefficients. These concepts are the basis for many mathematical models of physiological behavior, and we describe the general nature of such models. Next, we introduce the concept of a "fatal limit" for the displacement of a physiological system, and show how measures of such limits can be included in mathematical models. We show how the numerical values of such limits depend on the values of other system parameters, i.e., recovery times and coupling coefficients, and suggest ways of measuring all these parameters experimentally, for example by monitoring changes induced by X-irradiation. Next, we discuss age-related changes in these parameters, and show how the parameters of mortality statistics, such as the famous Gompertz parameters, can be derived from experimentally measurable changes. Concepts of onset-of-aging, critical or fatal limits, equilibrium value (homeostasis), recovery times and coupling constants are involved. Illustrations are given using published data from mouse and rat populations. We believe that this method of deriving survival patterns from model that is experimentally testable is unique.

Aging/physiology↗