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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Heavy and light flavor jet quenching in heavy-ion collisions in a perturbative QCD approach

In this work, we study the flavor dependence of jet quenching in heavy-ion collisions. A next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD framework is applied to account for both quark and gluon contributions to light and heavy flavor hadron productions. A linear Boltzmann transport model coupled to hydrodynamic simulation is utilized to study the nuclear modification of heavy and light flavor jets in the dynamically evolving quark-gluon plasma. Within our jet quenching framework, we obtain a nice description of the nuclear modification factors of charged hadrons, D mesons, B mesons and B–decayed D mesons over a wide range of transverse momentum (8-300 GeV). Our result shows that perturbative QCD is sufficient to explain the color, mass and energy dependence of parton energy loss and jet quenching in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

NG-CT Peaker Upgrades with Bottoming Cycle: Preliminary Analysis

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has conducted a preliminary analysis exploring a significant opportunity to increase the nation's power grid capacity and reliability. The study focuses on retrofitting under-utilized natural gas combustion turbines (NG-CTs), often called "peaker" plants, with a bottoming cycle to capture waste heat and generate additional electricity. This analysis shows that upgrading these existing assets could add approximately 26,250 MW of new power capacity across the United States. A detailed study of the PJM Interconnection, the nation's largest grid operator, confirmed the benefits of these upgrades. Key findings for the PJM region include: - A median increase in the plants' capacity factor by 17 percentage points. - A projected 36.2% median reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the upgraded plants, with nearly 88% of them expected to break even. - An average reduction in the regional wholesale price of electricity by approximately 3.0% in the year 2030. - A significant boost to grid reliability, with a 46% reduction in projected Loss of Load Hours (LOLH). These findings suggest that retrofitting peaker plants is a promising and economically viable strategy to enhance grid performance, reduce electricity costs, and meet future demand without the challenges associated with building entirely new facilities.

bottoming cycle↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mortality among individuals exposed to atomic bomb radiation in utero: 1950–2012

We examined the mortality risks among 2463 individuals who were exposed in utero to atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima or Nagasaki in August 1945 and were followed from October 1950 through 2012. Individual estimates of mother’s weighted absorbed uterine dose (DS02R1) were used. Poisson regression method was used to estimate the radiation-associated excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality. Head size, birth weight, and parents’ survival status were evaluated as potential mediators of radiation effect. There were 339 deaths (216 males and 123 females) including deaths from solid cancer (n = 137), lymphohematopoietic cancer (n = 8), noncancer disease (n = 134), external cause (n = 56), and unknown cause (n = 4). Among males, the unadjusted ERR/Gy (95% CI) was increased for noncancer disease mortality (1.22, 0.10–3.14), but not for solid cancer mortality (-0.18,< -0.77–0.95); the unadjusted ERR/Gy for external cause mortality was not statistically significant (0.28, < -0.60–2.36). Among females, the unadjusted ERRs/Gy were increased for solid cancer (2.24, 0.44–5.58), noncancer (2.86, 0.56–7.64), and external cause mortality (2.57, 0.20–9.19). The ERRs/Gy adjusted for potential mediators did not change appreciably for solid cancer mortality, but decreased notably for noncancer mortality (0.39, < -0.43–1.91 for males; 1.48, - 0.046–4.55 for females) and external cause mortality (0.10, < -0.57–1.96 for males; 1.38, < -0.46–5.95 for females). In conclusion, antenatal radiation exposure is a consistent risk factor for increased solid cancer mortality among females, but not among males. The effect of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on noncancer disease and external cause mortality among individuals exposed in utero was mediated through small head size, low birth weight, and parental loss.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear modification of leading hadrons and jets within a virtuality ordered parton shower

In this work, the event generator based on the higher-twist energy loss formalism—Modular All Twist Transverse-scattering Elastic-drag and Radiation (M ATTER )—is further developed and coupled to a hydrodynamic model for studying jet modification in relativistic nuclear collisions. The probability of parton splitting is calculated using the Sudakov form factor that is constructed by a combination of vacuum and medium-induced splitting functions; and the full parton showers are simulated, including both energy-momentum and space-time evolutions of all jet partons. With the assumption that partons below a virtual scale of 1 GeV is absorbed by the medium, this framework is able to provide a reasonable description of the nuclear modification of both leading hadrons and jets at high transverse momentum at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the CERN Large Hadron Collider.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

K ∗ (892) ± resonance production in Pb−Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The production of K *⁢(892) ± meson resonance is measured at midrapidity (| y |<0.5) in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{^sNN}$ = 5.02 TeV using the ALICE detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The resonance is reconstructed via its hadronic decay channel K *⁢(892) ± → K $^0_S$⁢π ± . The transverse momentum distributions are obtained for various centrality intervals in the p T range of 0.4-16 GeV/ c . Measurements of integrated yields, mean transverse momenta, and particle yield ratios are reported and found to be consistent with previous ALICE measurements for K *⁢(892) 0 within uncertainties. The p T -integrated yield ratio 2 K *⁢(892) ± ⁢/(⁢ K + + K - ) in central Pb-Pb collisions shows a significant suppression at a level of 9.3σ⁢ relative to pp collisions. Thermal model calculations result in an overprediction of the particle yield ratio. Although both hadron resonance gas in partial chemical equilibrium (HRG-PCE) and MUSIC + SMASH simulations consider the hadronic phase, only HRG-PCE accurately represents the measurements, whereas MUSIC + SMASH simulations tend to overpredict the particle yield ratio. These observations, along with the kinetic freeze-out temperatures extracted from the yields measured for light-flavored hadrons using the HRG-PCE model, indicate a finite hadronic phase lifetime, which decreases with increasing collision centrality percentile. The p T-differential yield ratios 2 K *⁢(892) ±⁢ /(⁢ K + + K - ) and 2 K *⁢(892) ± ⁢/(⁢π + +π - ) are presented and compared with measurements in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV. Both particle ratios are found to be suppressed by up to a factor of five at p T <2.0 GeV/ c in central Pb-Pb collisions and are qualitatively consistent with expectations for rescattering effects in the hadronic phase. The nuclear modification factor ( R AA ) shows a smooth evolution with centrality and is found to be below unity at p T >8 GeV/ c , consistent with measurements for other light-flavored hadrons. The smallest values are observed in most central collisions, indicating larger energy loss of partons traversing the dense medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cavity electro-optics in thin-film lithium niobate for efficient microwave-to-optical transduction

Linking superconducting quantum devices to optical fibers via microwave-optical quantum transducers may enable large-scale quantum networks. For this application, transducers based on the Pockels electro-optic (EO) effect are promising for their direct conversion mechanism, high bandwidth, and potential for low-noise operation. However, previously demonstrated EO transducers require large optical pump power to overcome weak EO coupling and reach high efficiency. Here, we create an EO transducer in thin-film lithium niobate, a platform that provides low optical loss and strong EO coupling. We demonstrate on-chip transduction efficiencies of up to and of optical pump power. The transduction efficiency can be improved by further reducing the microwave resonator’s piezoelectric coupling to acoustic modes, increasing the optical resonator quality factor to previously demonstrated levels, and changing the electrode geometry for enhanced EO coupling. We expect that with further development, EO transducers in thin-film lithium niobate can achieve near-unity efficiency with low optical pump power.

Holzgrafe, Jeffrey (ORCID:0000000160121451)↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Yield Estimates for Nuclear Detonations Over Water

One of the primary methods used by the United States to estimate the yields of atmospheric nuclear tests performed in the 1940’s, 50’s, and 60’s was to film each detonation with a high-speed camera, measure the blast radius as a function of time, and then use Taylor’s spherical blast wave equation to calculate the source energy (i.e., the yield). For surface detonations, the yield in Taylor’s equation was assumed to be twice as large as the actual yield to account for the energy reflected from the surface, assuming the ground was a perfect reflector. Recent simulations of surface detonations over water (referred to as barge shots) have shown that Taylor’s equation must be modified further to account for material entrainment and heat losses. We have computed this lost energy using a high-order radiation-hydrodynamics code to determine the reduction in blast radius vs. time. By analyzing simulation data in the same manner as film data, we have determined that a yield correction factor of 1.27± 0.04 should be applied to the barge shots.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid AI-ML and FE-based Digital Twin Predictive Modeling Framework for a PWR Coolant System Components: Updates on Multi-Time-Series-3D-Location Dependent Usages Factor Prediction

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plants (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition, the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Requiring frequent NDE inspections may lead to frequent NPP shutdowns which can lead to power outages and additional NDE inspection cost-related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing a more digital approach such as using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. The DT framework is based on limited experimental data, Artificial-intelligence (AI)-Machine-Learning (ML) and multiphysics-computationalmechanics such as finite element- (FE) based models. Given the real-time thermal-hydraulic process measurements from several existing plant sensors, the overall goal of the DT framework is to predict the cumulative usages factors or equivalent fatigue lives in real time and at any random 3D location of the components. This includes inaccessible locations such as inside the thickness or location of a component. This prediction can be at thousands to millions of 3D point clouds or locations like conventional FE-based models, but without running an FE model in real time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing photovoltaic backsheet adhesion degradation using the wedge and single cantilever beam tests, Part II: Accelerated tests

Photovoltaic (PV) backsheets provide critical moisture, mechanical, and electrical insulation to the backside of PV modules, but their continued functionality depends upon their ability to remain well adhered over years of harsh environmental exposure. A study of adhesive strength was conducted on several PV backsheet types exposed to indoor accelerated weathering. Two adhesion tests – the wedge test and single cantilever beam test – were used to measure adhesion energy in four backsheets: two with fluoropolymer-based outer (airside) layers – polyvinyl fluoride (PVF), polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) – and two with non-fluoropolymer-based outer layers–polyamide (PA) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The effects of changes in temperature, ultraviolet (UV) irradiance, relative humidity, and a periodic water spray were studied. The PET-, PVF- and PVDF-based backsheets all showed instances of debonding in an adhesive layer, which is commonly reported. Furthermore, for the PA-, PET-, and PVDF-based backsheets, adhesion energy dropped fairly rapidly with exposure, reaching very low levels by 4000 h. The PVF-based backsheet was relatively robust to weathering. Pull-off of an outer chalking layer in the PA- and PET-based backsheets suggested a sensitivity to UV. Adhesion in these two backsheets was also highly sensitive to changes in moisture level. Changes in UV irradiance and temperature did not show a statistically significant effect on adhesion loss for the exposure levels used. The present work is part of a two-part adhesion study on both field-weathered and indoor-exposed backsheets, and forms a basis for understanding adhesion degradation across a variety of backsheet types and degradation factors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient ECCD non-inductive plasma current start-up, ramp-up, and sustainment for an ST fusion reactor

The elimination of the need for an Ohmic heating solenoid may be the most impactful design driver for the realization of economical compact fusion tokamak reactor systems. However, this would require fully non-inductive start-up and current ramp-up from zero plasma current and low electron temperature of sub-keV to the full plasma current of ~10–15 MA at 20–30 keV electron temperature. To address this challenge, an efficient solenoid-free start-up and ramp-up scenario utilizing a low-field-side-launched extraordinary mode at the fundamental electron cyclotron harmonic frequency (X–I) is proposed, which has more than two orders of magnitude higher electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) efficiency than the conventional ECCD for the sub-keV start-up regime. A time dependent model was developed to simulate the start-up scenarios. For the Spherical Tokamak Advanced Reactor (STAR) (Menard et al 2023 Next-Step Low-Aspect-Ratio Tokamak Design Studies (IAEA)), it was found that to fully non-inductively ramp-up to 15 MA, it would take about 25 MW of EC power at 170 GHz. Because of the relatively large plasma volume of STAR, radiation losses must be considered. It is important to make sure that high Z impurities are kept sufficiently low during the early current start-up phase where the temperature is sub-keV range. Since the initial current ramp up takes place at a factor of ten lower density compared to the sustained regimes, it is important to transition into a higher bootstrap fraction discharge at lower density to minimize the ECCD power requirement during the densification. For the sustainment phase an array of eight gyrotron launchers with a total of about 60 MW of fundamental O-mode was found to be sufficient to provide the required axis-peaked external current drive. High efficiencies between 19–57 kA MW –1 were found with optimal aiming, and these were resilient to small changes in aiming angles and density and temperature profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wound Field and Hybrid Synchronous Machines for EV Traction with Brushless Capacitive Rotor Field Excitation (Final Report)

This project focused on the development of wound field synchronous machines (WFSMs) and hybrid excitation synchronous machines (HESMs) with brushless capacitive power transfer for the field excitation. The target application for the machines developed is the main traction motor in electric vehicles. The magnetization in these types of machines is provided by a field winding on the rotor which is excited with DC current. The magnetization level in the machine can be varied by changing the magnitude of the field current. The variable magnetization or field is one of the key features of WFSMs. WFSMs are commonly used as generators however they have several attractive features for automotive traction applications. 1) No use of permanent magnet: Rare earth permanent magnets are primarily mined and processed in China. They have been subject to large price and supply variations and their export may be restricted during times of geopolitical tension. 2) Easy field weakening: Wound field synchronous machines have complete control of their field excitation. With proper design, this type of machine can electromagnetically have an infinite constant power speed range. 3) High power factor: With proper choice of the field excitation, WFSMs may be operated with high or even unity power factor. This potentially allows for the inverter connected to the stator winding to be downsized. In comparison induction machines and interior permanent magnet synchronous machines must supply reactive power to the stator increasing the kVA rating and cost of the inverter. 4) Reduced iron losses at high speed: By reducing the field excitation, the iron loss in the stator can be reduced. This is in comparison to interior permanent magnet synchronous machines which must use stator current to buck or reduce the flux produced by the permanent magnets. Generally, WFSMs have their highest efficiency at high speed. 5) Torque output at high temperatures: The magnetization provided by the field winding only depends on the field current and not on the field winding temperature. This is in contrast to permanent magnet machines where the permanent magnet flux decreases as the magnet temperature increases. Historically a number of approaches have been developed to provide DC current to the rotating field winding in WFSM’s including brushes and slip rings, low frequency brushless exciters, and high frequency rotary transformers and rectifiers. In this project, a different approach was used: brushless capacitive power transfer. Brushless capacitive power transfer uses two sets of rotating capacitors or electrodes in which an AC electric field is established by a high frequency inverter. A displacement current can flow through the airgap in the rotating capacitors which is rectified on the rotor using a diode bridge. The potential advantage of capacitive power transfer is that there is no need for heavy iron to guide magnetic flux. The electric flux lines terminate on the charges on the rotary capacitor surfaces. This should also limit the electric field outside the rotary capacitor airgaps. The main challenge with capacitive power transfer is that the capacitance and surface area of the rotating capacitors is small. Because capacitive power transfer systems are essentially a dual of a magnetic system, an Ampere per Hertz relationship is characteristic versus a Volts per Hertz relationship. A very high frequency power inverter must be used to provide sufficient excitation to the field winding. The concept of using capacitive power transfer to excite a high performance WFSM was initially developed in a previous U.S.A. Dept. of Energy project, DE-EE0006829. This project focused on increasing the power density of the WFSMs and reducing the cost and manufacturing complexity of the capacitive power transfer system. This project has demonstrated that WFSMs with brushless capacitive field power transfer can provide a high-power density and low-cost automotive powertrain technology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil net nitrogen mineralization and leaching under Miscanthus × giganteus and Zea mays

Abstract The winter fallow period common in annual cropping systems leaves soils vulnerable to erosion and nutrient loss, especially to nitrogen (N) leaching. This vulnerability can be mitigated with perennial crops that have living roots in the ground year‐round. The mechanisms, magnitude, and consistency with which perennial crops retain N are not clear. We used an experiment to test whether a perennial crop, miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.), would leach less N than continuous maize ( Zea mays L.) and how soil net N mineralization (N min ) may explain observed leaching under varied environment and management conditions. The experiment included three crossed factors: (1) cropping system (maize, juvenile miscanthus = 1–2 years old, mature miscanthus = 3–4 years old); (2) N fertilization (0 and 224 kg N ha −1 ); and (3) environment (four site‐years at two locations in Iowa, USA, that differed in climate and soil fertility). We measured N cycling dynamics, including: inorganic soil N (ammonium + nitrate), in situ N min , N leaching, crop N uptake, and calculated system N use efficiency. There were many complex interactions among factors. On average, cumulative N min under juvenile miscanthus was 111% greater than maize, but as miscanthus matured, there was no difference in N min between the perennial crop and maize. There was no difference in N leaching between juvenile miscanthus and maize, but mature miscanthus decreased N leaching by 42% and 88% compared to maize (with and without N fertilization, respectively). Across all treatments, there was no relationship between N min and N leaching, suggesting other mechanisms are regulating N leaching. Overall, mature miscanthus shows promise as a tool to reduce N losses in areas dominated by annual row‐crops.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental study of a tri-functional propane hydronic heat pump

This study investigates the performance of a propane hydronic heat pump system for space cooling, heating, and water heating applications, focusing on various operational conditions, with a total refrigerant charge below 1200 g. Cooling performance was evaluated at different outdoor temperatures, compressor stages (capacity levels), and water flow rates. The results showed that the coefficient of performance (COP) for cooling was higher at lower outdoor temperatures, with peak values exceeding 5.0 under low-stage operation and lower water flow rate. The cooling capacity increased with higher flow rates and compressor stages, reaching 12 kW. Space heating performance, evaluated at ambient temperatures ranging from −8.3 °C to 16.7 °C, revealed a decrease in COP with lower temperatures. However, high-stage operation maintained higher heating capacities even at low temperatures. The system demonstrated high Heating Seasonal Performance Factors (HSPF), exceeding 10.0. For water heating, the COP decreased with lower ambient temperatures and higher supply water temperatures. The system efficiently heated an 189-L water tank, outperforming conventional water heaters, with process COPs exceeding 4.0 under cooling-season conditions. Despite some efficiency loss due to defrosting at low temperatures, the propane heat pump consistently delivered strong performance. Seasonal energy efficiency ratios (SEER) and seasonal heating COP values indicated significant overall efficiency. The study concludes that propane is a promising refrigerant for heat pump systems, with future research needed to future reduce total system charge and optimize system performance through advanced controls and heat exchanger designs.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Refining fast simulation using machine learning

At the CMS experiment, a growing reliance on the fast Monte Carlo application (FastSim) will accompany the high luminosity and detector granularity expected in Phase 2. The FastSim chain is roughly 10 times faster than the application based on the GEANT4 detector simulation and full reconstruction referred to as FullSim. However, this advantage comes at the price of decreased accuracy in some of the final analysis observables. In this contribution, a machine learning-based technique to refine those observables is presented. We employ a regression neural network trained with a sophisticated combination of multiple loss functions to provide post-hoc corrections to samples produced by the FastSim chain. The results show considerably improved agreement with the FullSim output and an improvement in correlations among output observables and external parameters. This technique is a promising replacement for existing correction factors, providing higher accuracy and thus contributing to the wider usage of FastSim.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chemical factors controlling the behaviour of oxide cathodes in batteries

Oxide cathodes enable high-energy lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries, with their performances fundamentally governed by three interrelated chemical factors: electronic configuration, chemical bonding, and chemical reactivity. Here, we illustrate how these factors dictate the redox energy, structural stability, ionic and electronic transport, and interfacial behavior in both layered oxide and polyanion oxide cathodes. We discuss how crystal-field effects and octahedral-site stabilization energies influence cation migration, and how inductive effects tune bond covalency and operating voltages. We also explain how chemical bonding governs thermal stability, gas evolution, and first-cycle capacity loss, and how alignment of transition-metal redox band with the oxygen 2p band determines electrolyte reactivity. Comparison between lithium and sodium layered oxides further reveals how differences in Li-O and Na-O bond ionicity affect chemical reactivity. Finally, we outline strategies including compositional tuning, surface doping, and electrolyte optimization, and emphasize how high-throughput, data-driven approaches in guiding the design of next-generation oxide cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Factors linked to participant attrition in a longitudinal occupational health surveillance program

For occupational medical screening programs focused on long-term health surveillance, participant attrition is a significant barrier to success. Here we investigate demographic, medical history, and clinical data from National Supplemental Screening Program (NSSP) examinees for association with likelihood of return for a second exam (rescreening). A total of 15,733 individuals completed at least one NSSP exam before December 31, 2016; of those, 4832 also completed a second exam on or before December 31, 2019. Stepwise logistic regression models were used to identify variables associated with whether a participant was rescreened in the NSSP. Individuals were less likely to return for rescreening if they had a history of any cancer; cardiovascular problems; diabetes or kidney disease; or if they used insulin. Age at time of first exam and job site category significantly influenced likelihood of return. Workers categorized as “guests” were more likely to return. Participants were less likely to return if they had an abnormal urinalysis, abnormal pulmonary function, pneumoconiosis, aortic atherosclerosis, or hearing loss at their initial exam. Participants who received a chest X-ray at their initial screening were more likely to return. The presence of health problems is strongly linked to screening program attrition. Participants who are older at the time of their initial screening exam are less likely to return. The discovery of several strong demographic, medical, and job associations reveals the importance for medical screening programs to understand and address factors that influence participant retention and, consequently, the effectiveness of long-term health surveillance activities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Infrared Near-Field Spectroscopy of Gold Nanotriangle Fabry-Pérot Resonances

Here, in this work, we characterize the near-field response of individual gold nanotriangles over a broad, visible-to-infrared, spectral region (200–1500 meV) using high-resolution electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) performed inside of a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM). We begin by experimentally imaging the spatial and spectral extent of each nanotriangle’s plasmonic Fabry-Pérot modes and measuring the evolution of their resonance energies with increasing edge length; thereby providing detailed information on infrared plasmon dephasing times and dispersion relations. Numerical electromagnetic simulations of the electron probe are used to interpret these experimental results and to compare the near-field electromagnetic enhancement factors of gold nanotriangles and nanorods of equal resonant energy. Taken together, this combined experimental and theoretical study provides unique insights relevant to designing noble metal plasmonic nanoparticle systems for solar energy harvesting and sensing applications in the near- and mid-infrared.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗