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At least 613 records · Page 34

We Just Want to Pump…You Up! Forecasting Grid-Connected Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Savings and Load Shifting Potential for the Southeast U.S.

Heat pump water heaters (HPWH) can achieve energy savings of 60-70% compared to conventional electric-resistance water heaters. However, even with a favorable simple payback period within the typical product lifetime, HPWHs make up only 1% of all electric water heaters sold in the residential sector. Market adoption is challenged, in part, by the lack of effective energy efficiency programs in the U.S. region with the greatest amount of residential electric water heaters. The recent integration of connected functionality into HPWHs offers the capability to shift load without undue negative impact on customers. This capability can provide value to utilities with peak load constraints, motivating them to promote HPWHs for the first time. This paper will present a methodology to forecast connected HPWH energy use and extrapolate load shifting potential for the Southeast U.S. region. The methodology leverages data from a robust connected HPWH field study conducted in the Pacific Northwest. A coefficient of performance (COP) relationship for HPWHs was developed using ambient and inlet water temperature data to forecast HPWH performance on a month-by-month basis. Using the forecasted COP, HPWH operating hours were calculated for meeting load, which serve as the proxy to extrapolate load shifting potential from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. As a use case, analytical results are presented for a specific utility. This methodology, in combination with market analysis, facilitates the development of customized energy savings and load shifting forecasts to understand the potential impacts of launching connected HPWH programs in specific utility service territories.

heat pump water heater, energy savings, load shift↗

Occupancy-Driven Stochastic Decision Framework for Ranking Commercial Building Loads

For effective integration of building operations into the evolving demand response programs of the power grid, real-time decisions concerning the use of building appliances for grid services must excel on multiple criteria, ranging from the added value to occupants' comfort to the quality of the grid services. In this paper, we present a data-driven stochastic decision-support framework to dynamically rank load control alternatives in a commercial building, addressing the needs of multiple decision criteria (e.g. occupant comfort, grid service quality) under uncertainties in occupancy patterns. We adopt a stochastic multi-criteria decision algorithm recently applied to prioritize residential on/off loads, and extend it to i) consider complex load control decisions (e.g. dimming of lights, changing zone temperature set-points) in a commercial building; and ii) systematically integrate zonal occupancy patterns to better identify short-term (and time-varying) opportunities for grid service participation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed framework for curtailment of air-conditioning, lighting, and plug-loads in a multi-zone commercial office building for a range of design choices. With the help of a prototype system that integrates an interactive \textit{Data Analytics and Visualization} frontend we demonstrate a way for the building operators to monitor and change in real-time the available flexibility in energy consumption and to develop trust in the decision recommendations by interpreting the rationale behind the ranking.

Jain, Milan↗

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Real time computations of cryogenic He properties

The Fermilab PIP-II (proton improvement plan - II) project is being constructed at Fermilab to deliver $800\,MeV$ protons of $>1\,MW$ beam power to replace the present LINAC and provide protons to the remainder of the existing accelerator complex. The new LINAC consists of a warm front end, 23 superconducting RF cryomodules, and a beam transfer line to the existing complex. The cryomodules (CMs) are to be tested at Fermilab's CryoModule Test Facility (CMTF).An important measurement in cryogenic testing is the heat load of each CM. Traditionally, at Fermilab, these measurements were made collecting archived data offline and analyzing it. The new control system for PIP-II is being developed with the EPICS (Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System) framework, which allows us to compute the heat load in real time using the HePak library.We are exploring other $He$ properties, such as flow, where flow meters are not available, which can also be calculated in real time and fed back to the cryogenics engineers.This paper details the real time heat load calculation and $He$ flow software developed for CM testing at CMTF, as well as the first results from the prototype HB650 CM. Future plans for 2-phase $LHe$ flow will also be outlined.

Hanlet, Pierrick [Fermilab]↗

A digital twin based on OpenFAST linearizations for real-time load and fatigue estimation of land-based turbines

Monitoring a wind turbine requires intensive instrumentation, which would be too cost-prohibitive to deploy to an entire wind plant. This work presents a technique that uses readily available measurements to estimate signals that would otherwise require additional instrumentation. This study presents a digital twin concept with a focus on estimating wind speed, thrust, torque, tower-top position, and loads in the tower using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements. The model combines a linear state-space model obtained using OpenFAST linearizations, a wind speed estimator, and a Kalman filter algorithm that integrates measurements with the state model to perform state estimations. The measurements are: top acceleration, generator torque, pitch, and rotational speed. The article extends previous work that derived the linear state-space model using a different method. The new implementation, based on OpenFAST linearization capability, allows for a systematic extension of the method to more states, inputs, outputs, and to the offshore environment. Results from the two methods are compared, and the validation is made with additional measurements using the GE 1.5-MW turbine located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory test site. Real-time damage equivalent loads of the tower bottom moment are estimated with an average accuracy of approximately 10%. Overall, the results from this proof of concept are encouraging, and further application of the model will be considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Probabilistic Look-ahead Contingency Analysis Integration with Commercial Tool and Practical Data

This paper presents an initial effort of integrating a smart sampling-based probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm with General Electric (GE) Grid Solutions’ commercial energy management system (EMS) tool as a proof-of-concept for a seamless research tool integration using real world large-scale grid data. With the increasing impact of random forces such as variable generation and load, their stochastic behaviors cannot be ignored. However, the current practices are still dominated by deterministic tools. They are becoming increasingly inadequate for the future grid. The developed look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm incorporates forecast errors of variable energy and load to address the challenges brought by the increasing uncertainty of power system. The algorithm can reveal the potential violations caused by the variance of variable energy and load that are not normally detected by traditional deterministic approaches. To test its performance under practical environments ( real data with real commercial tool), significant efforts have been made to prepare test cases, modify GE EMS tool, and adapt an extreme value distribution algorithm to analyze the GE EMS’s violation-only outputs. The test results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed algorithm as new transformer violations that were not previously detected have been identified. This performance provides better situational awareness to engineers for their decision-making process under uncertainty. Moreover, with the discussion of computational performance and future work, this paper has shown a clear path for integrating the probabilistic algorithm with commercial tools to make us better equipped for the changing power system.

Modeling and simulation of power systems, constrai↗

Validation of Local Structural Loads Computed by OpenFAST Against Measurements From the FOCAL Experimental Campaign

This work presents the validation of the local structural load modeling capability in OpenFAST for floating substructures based on data from the FOCAL experimental campaign. Previously, OpenFAST could only represent the floating substructure as a rigid body, and though this approach can model the global response of the floater in most cases, it is not able to capture the structural loads within the floater's individual members. Consideration of local substructure loads is important for some floating designs, because the pursuit of cost reduction often results in lighter and more flexible structures. To address this limitation, the HydroDyn (hydrodynamics) and SubDyn (substructure dynamics) modules of OpenFAST have been recently extended to account for the flexibility of floating substructures. To validate this new capability, we compare the results obtained by OpenFAST with data measured during the FOCAL experimental campaign, which analyzed a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the IEA 15-MW reference turbine atop a modified University of Maine VolturnUS-S semisubmersible in a wave basin under the action of both wind and waves. For the purposes of the present work, the most important feature of the experiment is the presence of load cells at the root of each pontoon, and our objective is to assess how well those loads are reproduced by OpenFAST. To model the distributed hydrodynamic and hydrostatic loads along the floating substructure, we adopt a strip-theory approach based on the Morison equation, and we discuss the impact of different hydrodynamic modeling options (wave stretching, MacCamy-Fuchs correction, and second-order wave kinematics) on both motions and loads. For simplicity, we focus on wave-only conditions, both regular and irregular. The results demonstrate good overall agreement for the loads at the root of the pontoons for the waves analyzed in this work, especially given the assumptions and simplifications inherent to a simple strip-theory model.

floating offshore wind turbine↗

Validation of Local Structural Loads Computed by OpenFAST Against Measurements From the Focal Experimental Campaign: Preprint

This work presents the validation of the local structural load modeling capability in OpenFAST for floating substructures based on data from the FOCAL experimental campaign. Previously, OpenFAST could only represent the floating substructure as a rigid body, and though this approach can model the global response of the floater in most cases, it is not able to capture the structural loads within its individual members. Consideration of local substructure loads is important for some floating designs, as the pursuit of cost reduction often results in lighter and more flexible structures. To address this limitation, the HydroDyn (hydrodynamics) and SubDyn (substructure dynamics) modules of OpenFAST have been recently extended to account for the flexibility of floating substructures. To validate this new capability, we compare the results obtained by OpenFAST with data measured during the FOCAL experimental campaign, which analyzed a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the IEA 15-MW reference turbine atop a modified University of Maine VolturnUS-S semisubmersible in a wave basin under the action of both wind and waves. For the purposes of the present work, the most important feature of the experiment is the presence of load cells at the root of each pontoon, and our objective is to assess how well those loads are reproduced by OpenFAST. To model the distributed hydrodynamic and hydrostatic loads along the floating substructure, we adopt a strip-theory approach based on the Morison equation, and we discuss the impact of different hydrodynamic modeling options (wave stretching, MacCamy-Fuchs correction, and second-order wave kinematics) on both motions and loads. For simplicity, we focus on wave-only conditions, both regular and irregular. The results demonstrate good overall agreement for the loads at the root of the pontoons for the waves analyzed in this work, especially given the assumptions and simplifications inherent to a simple strip-theory model.

floating offshore wind turbine↗

A physically based mechanical model for Mullins effect in thermoplastic polyurethanes

Despite decades of research, connecting the chemical and physical structure of thermoplastic polyurethanes to their mechanical properties remains highly challenging. Of particular note are their large-deformation and rate-dependent behaviors, which vary greatly with molecular chemistry, including the type and relative content of soft and hard segments. In this work, we develop a physically motivated mechanical theory for predicting the behavior of thermoplastic polyurethanes. The theory incorporates a representation of microstructural evolution during mechanical deformation, which captures the signatures of stress softening over cyclic loading (commonly referred to as the Mullins effect). There are only eight physically motivated fitting parameters, including a direct dependence on the hard segment fraction. The model predicts that increasing the hard segment fraction leads to higher stiffness and greater energy dissipation, in quantitative agreement with published experimental data. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the model and validate its predictions across several independent datasets focused on mechanical characterization. Direct comparisons to experimental data demonstrate its predictive capability on the effect of loading rate, cyclic deformations, and applied tension or compression. Altogether, this work establishes a predictive framework that connects polymer chemistry and microstructure to emergent mechanical behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Experimental data for damage mechanics simulation challenge

While there are many computational approaches for simulating damage in rock and other materials, few have been ground truth tested with either known experimental data or with blind data sets. Here, in this work, we present a bench-mark laboratory data set for a damage mechanics challenge to compare computational approaches on damage evolution in brittle-ductile materials. The samples were fabricated through additive manufacturing to produce repeatable specimens designed to fail in controlled ways. The failure was induced in the samples using a 3-point bending test to produce different Modes such as Mode I and mixed Modes including I-II, I-III and I-II-III Modes to generate a calibration data set and a blind challenge data set. Data collected included spatial and temporal measurements from traditional digital load–displacement sensors, 2D digital image correlation measurement to map surface deformations, 3D X-ray microscopy to ground-truth the crack-failure geometry, and laser profilometry to capture surface roughness. The data sets are available, on a data repository, to the community to advance computational models to improve our ability to predict damage in brittle-ductile materials.

3-point bending↗

The influence of wind veer and drivetrain flexibility on fatigue loading for large floating wind turbines

To reduce costs, offshore wind turbines are expected to be designed with significantly increased rotor diameters. Larger turbines become more flexible and span a larger portion of the atmospheric boundary layer. With these changes, the validity of traditional modeling assumptions should be investigated. This work challenges two common assumptions: (1) that the drivetrain can be considered rigid (except in torsion) and does not couple with the rotor and tower and 2) that wind directional change with height (veer) does not greatly influence the fatigue damage in the tower, blades and drivetrain. Two large semi-submersible floating wind turbines are considered: a 15 and a 22 MW reference turbine. Both use direct-drive generators. Aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulations are performed using OpenFAST, with drivetrain bending flexibility and main bearing response implemented in the coupled analysis. The turbines are subjected to a set of load cases at below-, near- and above-rated mean wind speeds, assembled based on the 3 km Norwegian reanalysis (NORA3) hourly wind and wave hindcast data for Utsira Nord, off the coast of Norway. In each load case, conditions with and without veer are simulated to evaluate the influence of veer on damage equivalent loads (DELs) of the turbine tower, blades and main bearings. Further, these load cases are applied to evaluate the influence of drivetrain flexibility on aero-elastic turbine response. The results indicate that, depending on the veer gradient, mean wind speed, operating regime and turbine size, veer can be very important for tower-top DELs and the fluctuations of main bearing radial loads, while main bearing and blade-root flapwise DELs are less affected. Considering these specific load cases and turbine models, drivetrain flexibility is found to significantly influence tower-top DELs of the largest turbine: the tower-top fore-aft and torsional damage equivalent moments of the 22 MW turbine are reduced by more than 20 % at near-rated wind speeds when the drivetrain is modeled as flexible.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Detailed Laboratory Evaluation of Electric Demand Load Shifting Potential of Controlled Heat Pump Water Heaters

The demand profile management of electric end uses is vital research for utilities and policymakers planning greenhouse gas emission reductions. In this study, detailed laboratory research was conducted on the load shifting potential of 4 grid-connected HPWHs and one electric resistance water heaters (ERWH). The testing applied different CTA-2045 shed and critical peak command designs under three water draw profiles. Highly-controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in Florida. One of the four HPWHs was a prototype incorporating the new CTA-2045-B protocol feature allowing ‘advanced’ load-up above tank setpoint. A three-hour morning (6 – 9 AM) and four-hour evening curtailment (4 – 8 PM) were defined as the shed or critical peak periods reflecting high-value control periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. Tests were performed under baseline conditions (no load shift) and under varied load-shifting schemes, including load up and advanced load up, ahead of shed and critical peak commands. Data were collected from December 2020 – February 2022 in the laboratory and compared with field experiments in Florida and the Pacific Northwest. Grid-connected HPWHs were found to reduce peak demand by up to 0.47 kW compared to uncontrolled HPWH units, depending on time of day, control scheme, draw profile, and temperature cluster. The load up strategy demonstrated the ability of all units to utilize heat pump mode for extended periods ahead of peak events. Demand reductions for the HPWHs were much larger when compared with the ERWH— up to 1.64 kW with large hot water draws in winter.

Fenaughty, Karen↗

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analyzing School Bus Electrification in Richmond, Virginia

School buses are an essential component of the transportation infrastructure, serving as a lifeline for students across the globe. However, the widespread use of diesel school buses has raised concerns about the health impact on millions of students exposed to harmful emissions daily. Recognizing this issue, school districts worldwide are urgently seeking cleaner energy alternatives. Electric school buses emerge as an environmentally friendly and sustainable option, fostering a healthier environment for both students and communities. However, school bus electrification faces the challenges of high upfront cost, cumbersome charging management, and constraints from power grids. To help school bus operators address those challenges, this study presents a data-driven analysis for school bus electrification. This study considered a real-world school bus system in Richmond, VA, and developed a mathematical programming model to analyze the system design, charging strategies, and charging load profiles for the electrification scenario. The study evaluated different charging strategies based on model outcomes, aiming to optimize efficiency and effectiveness. Ultimately, this research generated electric school bus charging demand profiles under various scenarios, shedding light on the feasibility and implications of transitioning to electric-powered school buses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Resource and Load Compatibility Assessment of Wind Energy Offshore of Humboldt County, California

Floating offshore wind is being considered in northern California as indicated by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s issuance of a lease consideration in the Humboldt Call Area. Humboldt County offers access to this enormous resource, but local electric load and transmission are limited. The potential impacts of offshore wind generators at three different scales were studied using a regional grid model of Humboldt County. Offshore wind generation was calculated using modeled wind speed data and 12-MW turbine specifications and integrated with projected load and historical generation. Offshore wind farms deployed in the Humboldt Call Area achieve annual capacity factors between 45% and 54% after losses and maintenance. Power output is variable between and within seasons, with full power output 30% of the time and no output approximately 20% of the time. Electricity from a 48-MW wind farm provides 22% of regional load with limited exports. A 144-MW wind farm serves 38% of local load, exporting 40% of its electricity with the extant 70-MW transmission capacity. A full build-out of 1836 MW would result in 88% curtailment with existing transmission. Across scenarios, offshore wind variability necessitates reliance on existing power plants to meet local demand in periods of low wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Anomaly Detection, Localization and Classification using Drifting Synchrophasor Data Streams

With ongoing automation and digitization of the electric power system, several Phasor Measurement Units(PMUs) have been deployed for monitoring and control. PMU data can have multiple anomalies, and many of the researchers in the past have concentrated on training machine/deep learning algorithms offline for anomaly detection over PMU data (i.e., not in real time). These machine/deep learning algorithms, when trained offline on a sample rather than a population of the dataset, fail to consider the dynamic behavior of the power grid in real-time, resulting in low accuracy. Considering the dynamic behavior of the power grid (e.g., change in load, generation, distributed energy resources (DERs) switching, network, controls), the definition of data anomalies varies in time and requires online training. A fundamental challenge is to enable online (i.e., real-time) training of machine/deep learning algorithms for anomaly detection over streaming PMU data. While machine/deep learning is often desirable to manage data streams, training a deep learning algorithm over streaming PMU data is nontrivial due to changes in data statistics caused by dynamic streaming data. This paper proposes PMUNET: a novel device-level deep learning-based data-driven approach for anomaly detection, localization, and classification over streaming PMU data, using online learning and multivariate data-drift detection algorithm .Two variants of PMUNET, Dynamic data Change Driven Learning (DCDL) and Continuity Driven Learning (CDL), are proposed and compared. DCDL aims to train the deep learning algorithm whenever the definition of anomaly changes due to the power grid dynamics. On the other hand, CDL continuously trains the deep learning algorithm over the PMU data-stream. The experimental results verify that DCDL outperforms CDL and other efficient anomaly detection methods over multiple events such as faults and load/ generator/capacitor/DERs variations/switching for IEEE 14 and 39 Bus test system as well as real PMU industrial data. The result verifies that DCDL variant of PMUNET improves over existing approach with a gain of 2% - 10% in terms of accuracy, false-positive rate, and false-negative rate.

adversarial deep learning↗

Voltage Stability Constrained Moving Target Defense Against Net Load Redistribution Attacks

Moving target defense (MTD) using distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices is a promising defense strategy to detect stealthy false data injection (FDI) attacks against the power system state estimation. However, all existing studies myopically perturb the reactance of D-FACTS lines without considering the system voltage stability. In this paper, we first illustrate voltage instability induced by MTDs in a three-bus system. To address this issue, we further propose a novel MTD framework that explicitly considers system voltage stability by using continuation power flow and voltage stability indices. We mathematically derive the sensitivity matrix of voltage stability index to line impedance, on which an optimization problem for maximizing voltage stability index is formulated. This framework is tested on the IEEE 14-bus and the IEEE 118-bus transmission systems, in which net load redistribution attacks are launched by sophisticated attackers. Here, the simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed framework in circumventing the voltage instability while maintaining the detection effectiveness of MTD. We conduct case studies with and without the proposed framework under different MTD planning and operational methods. The impacts of the proposed two methods on attack detection effectiveness and system economic metrics are also revealed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗