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DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of data-driven neural network-based machine learning (ML) algorithms has grown significantly and spurred research in its applicability to instrumentation and control systems. While they are promising in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of such algorithms is not adequately assessed. Failures of ML-integrated systems are poorly understood; the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness of these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology, trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier to adoption and will play a vital role in intelligent systems' safe and accountable operation. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a real-time model-agnostic method to evaluate the relative reliability of ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but significantly degrade at extrapolation. This occurs when new samples are "far" from training samples. The method, referred to as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets, which is used to calculate a prediction's relative reliability. LADDR is demonstrated on a feedforward neural network-based model used to predict safety significant factors during different loss-of-flow transients. LADDR is intended as a "data supervisor" and determines the appropriateness of well-trained ML models in the context of operational conditions. Ultimately, LADDR illustrates how training data can be used as evidence to support the trustworthiness of ML predictions when utilized for conventional interpolation tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of native Earth system model output with ESMValTool v2.6.0

Earth system models (ESMs) are state-of-the-art climate models that allow numerical simulations of the past, present-day, and future climate. To extend our understanding of the Earth system and improve climate change projections, the complexity of ESMs heavily increased over the last decades. As a consequence, the amount and volume of data provided by ESMs has increased considerably. Innovative tools for a comprehensive model evaluation and analysis are required to assess the performance of these increasingly complex ESMs against observations or reanalyses. One of these tools is the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of ESMs. Input data for ESMValTool needs to be formatted according to the CMOR (Climate Model Output Rewriter) standard, a process that is usually referred to as “CMORization”. While this is a quasi-standard for large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this complicates the application of ESMValTool to non-CMOR-compliant climate model output. In this paper, we describe an extension of ESMValTool introduced in v2.6.0 that allows seamless reading and processing of “native” climate model output, i.e., operational output produced by running the climate model through the standard workflow of the corresponding modeling institute. This is achieved by an extension of ESMValTool's preprocessing pipeline that performs a CMOR-like reformatting of the native model output during runtime. Thus, the rich collection of diagnostics provided by ESMValTool is now fully available for these models. For models that use unstructured grids, a further preprocessing step required to apply many common diagnostics is regridding to a regular latitude–longitude grid. Extensions to ESMValTool's regridding functions described here allow for more flexible interpolation schemes that can be used on unstructured grids. Currently, ESMValTool supports nearest-neighbor, bilinear, and first-order conservative regridding from unstructured grids to regular grids. Example applications of this new native model support are the evaluation of new model setups against predecessor versions, assessing of the performance of different simulations against observations, CMORization of native model data for contributions to model intercomparison projects, and monitoring of running climate model simulations. For the latter, new general-purpose diagnostics have been added to ESMValTool that are able to plot a wide range of variable types. Currently, five climate models are supported: CESM2 (experimental; at the moment, only surface variables are available), EC-Earth3, EMAC, ICON, and IPSL-CM6. As the framework for the CMOR-like reformatting of native model output described here is implemented in a general way, support for other climate models can be easily added.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the minimum number of radiation field parameters to specify gas cooling and heating functions

Fast and accurate approximations of gas cooling and heating functions are needed for hydrodynamic galaxy simulations. We use machine learning to analyze atomic gas cooling and heating functions in the presence of a generalized incident local radiation field computed by Cloudy. We characterize the radiation field through binned radiation field intensities instead of the photoionization rates used in our previous work. We find a set of 6 energy bins whose intensities exhibit relatively low correlation. We use these bins as features to train machine learning models to predict Cloudy cooling and heating functions at fixed metallicity. We compare the relative SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) value importance of the features. From the SHAP analysis, we identify a feature subset of 3 energy bins (0.5-1, 1-4, and 13-16Ry) with the largest importance and train additional models on this subset. We compare the mean squared errors and distribution of errors on both the entire training data table and a randomly selected 20% test set withheld from model training. The machine learning models trained with 3 and 6 bins, as well as 3 and 4 photoionization rates, have comparable accuracy everywhere, with errors ≳10 times smaller than for the interpolation table of Gnedin and Hollon (2012). We conclude that 3 energy bins (or 3 analogous photoionization rates: molecular hydrogen photodissociation, neutral hydrogen HI, and fully ionized carbon CVI) are sufficient to characterize the dependence of the gas cooling and heating functions on our assumed incident radiation field model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1983

The GPRIME approach to finite element modeling

GPRIME, an interactive modeling system, runs on the CDC 6000 computers and the DEC VAX 11/780 minicomputer. This system includes three components: (1) GPRIME, a user friendly geometric language and a processor to translate that language into geometric entities, (2) GGEN, an interactive data generator for 2-D models; and (3) SOLIDGEN, a 3-D solid modeling program. Each component has a computer user interface of an extensive command set. All of these programs make use of a comprehensive B-spline mathematics subroutine library, which can be used for a wide variety of interpolation problems and other geometric calculations. Many other user aids, such as automatic saving of the geometric and finite element data bases and hidden line removal, are available. This interactive finite element modeling capability can produce a complete finite element model, producing an output file of grid and element data.

Wallace, D. R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation Activities for the Multi-Fidelity Toolkit

The Multi-Fidelity Toolkit (MFTK) is a simulation tool being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for aerodynamic predictions of compressible flows over a range of physics fidelities and computational speeds. These models include the Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, the Euler equations, and modified Newtonian aerodynamics (MNA) equations, and they can be invoked independently or coupled with hierarchical Kriging to interpolate between high-fidelity simulations using lower-fidelity data. However, as with any new simulation capability, verification and validation are necessary to gather credibility evidence. This work describes formal code- and solution-verification activities as well as model validation with uncertainty considerations. Code verification is performed on the MNA model by comparing with an analytical solution for flat-plate and inclined-plate geometries. Solution-verification activities include grid-refinement studies of HIFiRE-1 wind tunnel measurements, which are used for validation, for all model fidelities. A thorough treatment of the validation comparison with prediction error and validation uncertainty is also presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automated Production of Optimization-Based Control Logics for Dynamic Facade Systems, with Experimental Application to Two-Zone External Venetian Blinds

The primary goal of this research is to devise a system that produces controllers for complex fenestration systems that perform nearly as well as Model Predictive Control but at a level of cost and implementation complexity that rivals simple heuristic controls. To this end, a cloud-based automated controller production system has been set up for a motorized external Venetian blind device, with a simple web interface that can be used by non-experts. The computation cost per controller is in the range of a few dollars, and the control logic is simple enough to be implemented on small and cheap distributed controllers. The web interface allows the user to specify some details of their particular building and window configuration, including orientation, latitude, interior geometries, and lighting and HVAC system parameters. Upon submittal, a cloud-based system configures the necessary files and commands, and then runs thousands of optimizations with them. Once the calculations are finished, the system produces a lookup table and interpolation-based controller scripts that can be used on a simple and cheap distributed controller. This paper describes the underlying models and optimization processes. It also describes the resulting control logics for two cases tested at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s Advanced Windows Testbed Facility: illuminance maximization subject to glare constraints; and lighting + HVAC energy minimization. The performance of the model-based controllers produced by the automated web-based system are compared to a heuristic ‘block beam’ controller in physical experiments at the Testbed. The experimental results are supplemented by simulation experiments with the same configuration as the Testbed. The results show the illuminance maximizing controller significantly outperforms the heuristic controller in terms of glare avoidance, and also outperforms it in terms of hours of daylight autonomy. The energy minimizing controller also outperforms the heuristic controller. This paper also discusses how the web-based system may be extended to consider other configurations, such as electrochromic windows and thermally massive HVAC systems. Potential roles for this type of system within the building design and construction industry are discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2023

Modeling of Response of Thermoplastic Composites Under High Energy Impact

This work investigates the response of a thermoplastic panel under high energy ballistic impact. The composite material system is a carbon fiber reinforced low melt semi-crystalline resin TC1225 LMPAEK T700G (T700/LMPAEK3). Several high energy dynamic impact tests were performed where an aluminum projectile impacted various panels at different impact velocities. For this work, the test performed at an impact velocity of 73.2 m/s was investigated. The projectile rebounded upon impact, and the damage to the panel was characterized through ultrasonic and CT-scanning. Response of the panel under impact and the associated damage is discussed. Numerical simulation of the impact process was performed using the LS-DYNA® computer code [1] with a new material model MAT_COMPOSITE_DAMAGE_DGD (MAT 299), a modification over MAT 261 material model in terms of an improved representation of damage coupling and additional capability for strain rate effects. Delaminations were modeled using cohesive zone contact formulation in LS-DYNA®, wherein the mixed-mode fracture is captured via the Benzegaggh-Kenane (B-K) mode-dependent fracture energy interpolation law. Simulation of this impact test demonstrates a good match of results in terms of panel deflection and panel-projectile interactions. The overall extent of delaminations was under-predicted by the simulation. This work forms the basis to model tests performed at higher velocities, involving projectile penetration of panel.

Composite Materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the minimum number of radiation field parameters to specify gas cooling and heating functions

Fast and accurate approximations of gas cooling and heating functions are needed for hydrodynamic galaxy simulations. We use machine learning to analyze atomic gas cooling and heating functions computed by Cloudy in the presence of a generalized incident local radiation field. We characterize the radiation field through binned radiation field intensities instead of the photoionization rates used in our previous work. We find a set of 6 energy bins whose intensities exhibit relatively low correlation. We use these bins as features to train machine learning models to predict Cloudy cooling and heating functions at fixed metallicity. We compare the relative SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) value importance of the features. From the SHAP analysis, we identify a feature subset of 3 energy bins ($0.5-1, 1-4$, and $13-16 \, \mathrm{Ry}$) with the largest importance and train additional models on this subset. We compare the mean squared errors and distribution of errors on both the entire training data table and a randomly selected 20% test set withheld from model training. The machine learning models trained with 3 and 6 bins, as well as 3 and 4 photoionization rates, have comparable accuracy everywhere, with errors $\gtrsim 10$ times smaller than for the interpolation table of Gnedin and Hollon (2012). We conclude that 3 energy bins (or 3 analogous photoionization rates: molecular hydrogen photodissociation, neutral hydrogen HI, and fully ionized carbon CVI) are sufficient to characterize the dependence of the gas cooling and heating functions on our assumed incident radiation field model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

GLUE Code: A framework handling communication and interfaces between scales

Many scientific applications are inherently multiscale in nature. Such complex physical phenomena often require simultaneous execution and coordination of simulations spanning multiple time and length scales. This is possible by combining expensive small-scale simulations (such as molecular dynamics simulations) with larger scale simulations (such continuum limit/hydro solvers) to allow for considerably larger systems using task and data parallelism. However, the granularity of the tasks can be very large and often leads to load imbalance. Traditionally, we use approximations to streamline the computation of the more costly interactions and this introduces trade-offs between simulation cost and accuracy. In recent years, the available computational power and the advances in machine learning have made computing these scale-bridging interactions and multiscale simulations more feasible. One driving application has been plasma modeling in inertial confinement fusion (ICF), which is fundamentally multiscale in nature. This requires deep understanding of how to extrapolate microscopic information into macroscopically relevant scales. For example, in ICF one needs an accurate understanding of the connection between experimental observables and the underlying microphysics. The properties of the larger scales are often affected by the microscale behavior incorporated usually into the equations of state and ionic and electronic transport coefficients (Liboff, 1959; Rinderknecht et al., 2014; Rosenberg et al., 2015; Ross et al., 2017). Instead of incorporating this information using reliable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, one often needs to use theoretical models, due to the inability of MD to reach engineering scales (Glosli et al., 2007; Marinak et al., 1998). One approach to resolve this issue is by coupling two MD simulations of different scales via force interpolation, e.g., the AdResS method (Krekeler et al., 2018; Nagarajan et al., 2013). Another approach, which we will pursue in the scope of this work, is by enabling scale bridging between MD simulations and meso/macro-scale models through the development and support of application programming interfaces that these different applications can interact through.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015

Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of -281 to -373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of MSL RCS Jet Computations With Flow Visualization and Velocimetry

Numerical predictions of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) reaction control system (RCS) jets interacting with a Mach 10 hypersonic flow are compared to experimental nitric oxide (NO) planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) data. The steady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) equations using the Baldwin-Barth one-equation turbulence model were solved using the OVERFLOW code. The experimental PLIF data used for comparison consists of qualitative two-dimensional visualization images, qualitative reconstructed three-dimensional flow structures, and quantitative two-dimensional distributions of streamwise velocity. Through modeling of the PLIF signal equation, computational flow images (CFI) were produced and directly compared to the qualitative PLIF data. Post processing of the experimental and simulation data enabled the jet trajectory to be extracted for a more quantitative comparison. The two-dimensional velocity fields were reconstructed through interpolation of a series of single-component velocity profiles. Each distribution of single-component velocity was obtained using molecular tagging velocimetry (MTV). After validating the numerical model, the numerical solution was further examined to gain insight into hypersonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. Future NO-PLIF experiments are proposed based on this analysis.

Johansen, Craig T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Empirical estimation of densities in NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 and NaCl-KCl-YCl 3 molten salts using Redlich-Kister expansion

Densities of molten KCl-NaCl-UCl 3 and KCl-NaCl-YCl 3 ternary systems have been estimated using a multidimensional Redlich-Kister model. Temperature and composition dependent Redlich-Kister functions have been used to generate binary interaction parameters in the outlined ternary salt systems. These binary interactions have been used in the extrapolation to ternary system densities. The results of the density extrapolations by Muggianu interpolation scheme provide agreement within 2–3% for the NaCl-KCl-YCl 3 liquids and 11% in NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 liquids compared to the available experimental data. Modeling NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 molten phase density with a ternary interaction parameter improved the agreement within 4%. Thermophysical modeling used in this study has shown promising results for use in other material properties, such as viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity of the molten salts. Lastly, the outlined modeling method applied in these specific molten salt ternaries can be used for quaternary or higher multicomponent molten salt systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Monotonic Gaussian Process for Physics-Constrained Machine Learning With Materials Science Applications

Physics-constrained machine learning is emerging as an important topic in the field of machine learning for physics. One of the most significant advantages of incorporating physics constraints into machine learning methods is that the resulting model requires significantly less data to train. By incorporating physical rules into the machine learning formulation itself, the predictions are expected to be physically plausible. Gaussian process (GP) is perhaps one of the most common methods in machine learning for small datasets. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of constraining a GP formulation with monotonicity on three different material datasets, where one experimental and two computational datasets are used. The monotonic GP is compared against the regular GP, where a significant reduction in the posterior variance is observed. The monotonic GP is strictly monotonic in the interpolation regime, but in the extrapolation regime, the monotonic effect starts fading away as one goes beyond the training dataset. Imposing monotonicity on the GP comes at a small accuracy cost, compared to the regular GP. The monotonic GP is perhaps most useful in applications where data are scarce and noisy, and monotonicity is supported by strong physical evidence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2015

Quantifying Libya-4 Surface Reflectance Heterogeneity With WorldView-1, 2 and EO-1 Hyperion

The land surface imaging (LSI) virtual constellation approach promotes the concept of increasing Earth observations from multiple but disparate satellites. We evaluated this through spectral and spatial domains, by comparing surface reflectance from 30-m Hyperion and 2-m resolution WorldView-2 (WV-2) data in the Libya-4 pseudoinvariant calibration site. We convolved and resampled Hyperion to WV-2 bands using both cubic convolution and nearest neighbor (NN) interpolation. Additionally, WV-2 and WV-1 same-date imagery were processed as a cross-track stereo pair to generate a digital terrain model to evaluate the effects from large (>70 m) linear dunes. Agreement was moderate to low on dune peaks between WV-2 and Hyperion (R2 <; 0.4) but higher in areas of lower elevation and slope (R2 > 0.6). Our results provide a satellite sensor intercomparison protocol for an LSI virtual constellation at high spatial resolution, which should start with geolocation of pixels, followed by NN interpolation to avoid tall dunes that enhance surface reflectance differences across this internationally utilized site.

Hyperion↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal conductivity tensor of β -1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazoctane ( β -HMX) as a function of pressure and temperature

Here, we have used reverse non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (RNEMD) simulations to determine the full thermal conductivity tensor for the monoclinic high explosive crystal β-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazoctane (β-HMX). In order to do so for the monoclinic crystal, four directions for heat propagation are used. Effects of the temperature and pressure are investigated between 200 and 500 K and 0 and 5 GPa, respectively, which approximately covers the range where the β polymorph is stable. Simulations are carried out with the Smith–Bharadwaj non-reactive empirical potential [Smith and Bharadwaj, J. Phys. Chem. B 103, 3570 (1999)], which is known to reproduce well the thermo-elastic properties of HMX. Our results indicate that the thermal conductivity, κ, is highly anisotropic, with 36% difference between the two extreme values at 300 K and 0 GPa. A simple function is used to interpolate κ in the pressure-temperature regime considered in this study, which can be used in continuum models. The results from RNEMD simulations compare well with available experimental results from the literature and allow the determination of κ for any direction and temperature and pressure within or around the fitting interval.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Equations of State in Computational Physics: What, Why, and How

Summary: 1. Equations of state furnish thermodynamic properties of a material. 2. Usually involve P, p (or V), and T, or P, r, and E 3. Necessary ingredient to solve compressible flow problems. 4. Varieties: i. Analytical expressions (ideal gas, Grüneisen) – fast, convenient for verification and test problems ii. Graphs and charts – good for hand calculations iii. Tables and databases – generally most accurate, require interpolation i. Steam tables ii. NIST database iii. SESAME EOS Library 5. Constructed by using semi-empirical models from Statistical Mechanics and fitting to available data

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metrics for Intercomparison of Remapping Algorithms (MIRA) protocol applied to Earth system models

Abstract. Strongly coupled nonlinear phenomena such as those described by Earth system models (ESMs) are composed of multiple component models with independent mesh topologies and scalable numerical solvers. A common operation in ESMs is to remap or interpolate component solution fields defined on their computational mesh to another mesh with a different combinatorial structure and decomposition, e.g., from the atmosphere to the ocean, during the temporal integration of the coupled system. Several remapping schemes are currently in use or available for ESMs. However, a unified approach to compare the properties of these different schemes has not been attempted previously. We present a rigorous methodology for the evaluation and intercomparison of remapping methods through an independently implemented suite of metrics that measure the ability of a method to adhere to constraints such as grid independence, monotonicity, global conservation, and local extrema or feature preservation. A comprehensive set of numerical evaluations is conducted based on a progression of scalar fields from idealized and smooth to more general climate data with strong discontinuities and strict bounds. We examine four remapping algorithms with distinct design approaches, namely ESMF Regrid (Hill et al., 2004), TempestRemap (Ullrich and Taylor, 2015), generalized moving least squares (GMLS) (Trask and Kuberry, 2020) with post-processing filters, and WLS-ENOR (Li et al., 2020). By repeated iterative application of the high-order remapping methods to the test fields, we verify the accuracy of each scheme in terms of their observed convergence order for smooth data and determine the bounded error propagation using challenging, realistic field data on both uniform and regionally refined mesh cases. In addition to retaining high-order accuracy under idealized conditions, the methods also demonstrate robust remapping performance when dealing with non-smooth data. There is a failure to maintain monotonicity in the traditional L2-minimization approaches used in ESMF and TempestRemap, in contrast to stable recovery through nonlinear filters used in both meshless GMLS and hybrid mesh-based WLS-ENOR schemes. Local feature preservation analysis indicates that high-order methods perform better than low-order dissipative schemes for all test cases. The behavior of these remappers remains consistent when applied on regionally refined meshes, indicating mesh-invariant implementations. The MIRA intercomparison protocol proposed in this paper and the detailed comparison of the four algorithms demonstrate that the new schemes, namely GMLS and WLS-ENOR, are competitive compared to standard conservative minimization methods requiring computation of mesh intersections. The work presented in this paper provides a foundation that can be extended to include complex field definitions, realistic mesh topologies, and spectral element discretizations, thereby allowing for a more complete analysis of production-ready remapping packages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

Comparison of photogrammetric and astrometric data reduction results for the wild BC-4 camera

The results of astrometric and photogrammetric plate reduction techniques for a short focal length camera are compared. Several astrometric models are tested on entire and limited plate areas to analyze their ability to remove systematic errors from interpolated satellite directions using a rigorous photogrammetric reduction as a standard. Residual plots are employed to graphically illustrate the analysis. Conclusions are made as to what conditions will permit the astrometric reduction to achieve comparable accuracies to those of photogrammetric reduction when applied for short focal length ballistic cameras.

Hornbarger, D. H.↗