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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗

NASA NTRS1991

Models of remote manipulation in space

Robots involved in high value manipulation must be effectively coupled to a human operator either at the work-site or remotely connected via communication links. In order to make use of experimental performance evaluation data, models must be developed. Powerful models of remote manipulation by humans can be used to predict manipulation performance in future systems based on today's laboratory systems. In this paradigm, the models are developed from experimental data, and then used to predict performance in slightly different situations. Second, accurate telemanipulation will allow design of manipulation systems which extend manipulation capability beyond its current bounds.

Hannaford, Blake↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System-Level Model-Based Risk Determination for Lunar Mission Design

Recent work has shown that human activities on the lunar surface have the potential to impact not only surface infrastructure, but also have long-term repercussions to lunar orbit infrastructure that is directly proportional to the frequency and scale of landings and impacts. Those assets that are present within the lunar environment, whether on the surface or in orbit, are thus not entirely isolated from one another but contribute to the overall induced environment. With that in mind, this project endeavors to model that system using Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE), employing previously developed mathematical methodology. The product from this work is a flexible tool with which a user may model any number of assets or events and determine how the dust and debris generated by those events effects mission operations and overall projected.

Matthew Wittal↗

DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ExMC Systems Engineering Status

The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element within the Human Research Program (HRP) applies systems engineering principles along with the use of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tools to identify and communicate the requirements for medical and crew health and performance (CHP) systems. The MBSE approach to medical system design offers a paradigm shift toward greater integration between the vehicle and a human health and performance system. In addition, the MBSE tools provide a means in which systems engineers can develop different views of the relationships between and among requirements, standards, functions, and capabilities, to name a few, that is best suited for a user’s objectives. Applying these tools, ExMC Systems Engineering (SE) developed three MBSE models in support of multiple projects in fiscal year (FY) 2023. These included the Long-Duration Lunar Orbit and Lunar Surface (LDLOLS) Medical System Foundation, Earth-Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) medical system ConOps, and the 2023 Artemis CHP System model. This talk will provide a high-level overview of what the ExMC SE team has accomplished since the last Investigators’ Workshop, an introduction to upcoming SE talks, and the ongoing systems engineering work.

Systems engineering↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ExMC Systems Engineering Status

Systems engineering↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Cryogenic Propellant Tank Self-Pressurization

NASA’s near-future long-term space missions necessitate advancements in cryogenic fluid management (CFM), which includes safe and reliable long-term propellant storage. Consequently, NASA STMD (Space Technology Mission Directorate) has established the CFM Portfolio Project to improve CFM technologies for upcoming missions. As a part of CFM Modeling Portfolio, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center’s (MSFC) Fluid Dynamics branch within the Propulsion Systems Department is tasked with assessing and improving computational tools used to support flight projects such as Human Lander System and Commercial Lunar Payload Services. One of the challenging modeling problems is that of self-pressurization of propellant tank due to heat leakage over long time periods. Reduced order and nodal tools find it extremely difficult to accurately predict self-pressurization under transient conditions or where complex flow patterns or thermal gradients exist, and application of 3-D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations is necessary to characterize these problems. Until recently, CFD simulations for these long-term processes (order of hours or days) have been too impractical to conduct due to prohibitive wall time and computational resource requirements. The requisite CFD tool need to be efficient, computationally scalable, modular with ability to incorporate various physics models, and robust enough to not accumulate conservation errors over several hours of simulated time. NASA MSFC’s Loci-Stream CFD tool along with the VOF module is a great candidate to fit this mold. In this paper, we validate Loci-Stream for predicting self-pressurization of a flight scale propellant tank so it can serve as a reliable design and analysis tool for NASA’s CFM application needs. Liquid hydrogen tank pressurization tests carried out at the K-site testing facility provide a reliable data set for this purpose. These tests were simulated using Loci-Stream solver with VOF module as well as a hybrid approach which uses a lumped model for the ullage gas domain and CFD simulation of the liquid propellant. Both are shown to have very good predictive capabilities over multiple K-site experiments.

Hong Q. Yang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Cryogenic Propellant Tank Self-Pressurization

NASA's near-future long-term space missions necessitate advancements in cryogenic fluid management (CFM), which includes safe and reliable long-term propellant storage. Consequently, NASA STMD (Space Technology Mission Directorate) has established the CFM Portfolio Project to improve CFM technologies for upcoming missions. As a part of CFM Modeling Portfolio, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Fluid Dynamics branch within the Propulsion Systems Department is tasked with assessing and improving computational tools used to support flight projects such as Human Lander System and Commercial Lunar Payload Services. One of the challenging modeling problems is that of self-pressurization of propellant tank due to heat leakage over long time periods. Reduced order and nodal tools find it extremely difficult to accurately predict self-pressurization under transient conditions or where complex flow patterns or thermal gradients exist, and application of 3-D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations is necessary to characterize these problems. Until recently, CFD simulations for these long-term processes (order of hours or days) have been too impractical to conduct due to prohibitive wall time and computational resource requirements. The requisite CFD tool need to be efficient, computationally scalable, modular with ability to incorporate various physics models, and robust enough to not accumulate conservation errors over several hours of simulated time. NASA MSFC's Loci-Stream CFD tool along with the VOF module is a great candidate to fit this mold. In this paper, we validate Loci-Stream for predicting self-pressurization of a flight scale propellant tank so it can serve as a reliable design and analysis tool for NASA's CFM application needs. Liquid hydrogen tank pressurization tests carried out at the K-site testing facility provide a reliable data set for this purpose. These tests were simulated using Loci-Stream solver with VOF module as well as a hybrid approach which uses a lumped model for the ullage gas domain and CFD simulation of the liquid propellant. Both are shown to have very good predictive capabilities over multiple K-site experiments.

cryogenic fluid management↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modeling for Integrated Science Management and Resilient Systems Development

Many physiological, environmental, and operational risks exist for crewmembers during spaceflight. An understanding of these risks from an integrated perspective is required to provide effective and efficient mitigations during future exploration missions that typically have stringent limitations on resources available, such as mass, power, and crew time. The Human Research Program (HRP) is in the early stages of developing collaborative modeling approaches for the purposes of managing its science portfolio in an integrated manner to support cross-disciplinary risk mitigation strategies and to enable resilient human and engineered systems in the spaceflight environment. In this talk, we will share ideas being explored from fields such as network science, complexity theory, and system-of-systems modeling. Initial work on tools to support these explorations will be discussed briefly, along with ideas for future efforts.

Shelhamer, M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

STRIDES: automated uniform models for 30 quadruply imaged quasars

ABSTRACT Gravitational time delays provide a powerful one-step measurement of H0, independent of all other probes. One key ingredient in time-delay cosmography are high-accuracy lens models. Those are currently expensive to obtain, both, in terms of computing and investigator time (105–106 CPU hours and ∼0.5–1 yr, respectively). Major improvements in modelling speed are therefore necessary to exploit the large number of lenses that are forecast to be discovered over the current decade. In order to bypass this roadblock, we develop an automated modelling pipeline and apply it to a sample of 31 lens systems, observed by the Hubble Space Telescope in multiple bands. Our automated pipeline can derive models for 30/31 lenses with few hours of human time and <100 CPU hours of computing time for a typical system. For each lens, we provide measurements of key parameters and predictions of magnification as well as time delays for the multiple images. We characterize the cosmography-readiness of our models using the stability of differences in the Fermat potential (proportional to time delay) with respect to modelling choices. We find that for 10/30 lenses, our models are cosmography or nearly cosmography grade (<3 per cent and 3–5 per cent variations). For 6/30 lenses, the models are close to cosmography grade (5–10 per cent). These results utilize informative priors and will need to be confirmed by further analysis. However, they are also likely to improve by extending the pipeline modelling sequence and options. In conclusion, we show that uniform cosmography grade modelling of large strong lens samples is within reach.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Representation of Human Actions in Large‐Scale Hydrological Models: Challenges and Future Research Directions

Characterizing the impact of human actions on terrestrial water fluxes and storages at multi-basin, continental, and global scales has long been on the agenda of scientists engaged in climate science, hydrology, and water resources systems analysis. This need has resulted in a variety of modeling efforts focused on the representation of water infrastructure operations. Yet, the representation of human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological models is still relatively crude, fragmented across models, and often achieved at coarse resolutions (~10–100 km) that cannot capture local water management decisions. In this commentary, we argue that the concomitance of four drivers and innovations is poised to change the status quo: “hyper-resolution” hydrological models (~0.1–1 km), multi-sector modeling, satellite missions able to monitor the outcome of human actions, and machine learning are creating a fertile environment for human-water research to flourish. We then outline four challenges that chart future research in hydrological modeling: (a) creating hyper-resolution global data sets of water management practices, (b) improving the characterization of anthropogenic interventions on water quantity, stream temperature, and sediment transport, (c) improving model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, and (d) reducing the computational requirements associated with the successful exploration of these challenges. Overcoming them will require addressing modeling, computational, and data development needs that cut across the hydrology community, thereby requiring a major communal effort.

catchment hydrology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development

Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.

climate impacts↗

NASA NTRS1966

The Vestibular System and Human Dynamic Space Orientation

The motion sensors of the vestibular system are studied to determine their role in human dynamic space orientation and manual vehicle control. The investigation yielded control models for the sensors, descriptions of the subsystems for eye stabilization, and demonstrations of the effects of motion cues on closed loop manual control. Experiments on the abilities of subjects to perceive a variety of linear motions provided data on the dynamic characteristics of the otoliths, the linear motion sensors. Angular acceleration threshold measurements supplemented knowledge of the semicircular canals, the angular motion sensors. Mathematical models are presented to describe the known control characteristics of the vestibular sensors, relating subjective perception of motion to objective motion of a vehicle. The vestibular system, the neck rotation proprioceptors and the visual system form part of the control system which maintains the eye stationary relative to a target or a reference. The contribution of each of these systems was identified through experiments involving head and body rotations about a vertical axis. Compensatory eye movements in response to neck rotation were demonstrated and their dynamic characteristics described by a lag-lead model. The eye motions attributable to neck rotations and vestibular stimulation obey superposition when both systems are active. Human operator compensatory tracking is investigated in simple vehicle orientation control system with stable and unstable controlled elements. Control of vehicle orientation to a reference is simulated in three modes: visual, motion and combined. Motion cues sensed by the vestibular system through tactile sensation enable the operator to generate more lead compensation than in fixed base simulation with only visual input. The tracking performance of the human in an unstable control system near the limits of controllability is shown to depend heavily upon the rate information provided by the vestibular sensors.

VESTIBULAR APPARATUS↗

NASA NTRS2006

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) project of NASA s Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies that will enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. This presents a particular challenge in the aviation system where people are key components and human error is frequently cited as a major contributing factor or cause of incidents and accidents. In the aviation "world", information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. This report describes a conceptual model and an approach to automated analyses of textual data sources for the subjective perspective of the reporter of the incident to aid in understanding why an incident occurred. It explores a first-generation process for routinely searching large databases of textual reports of aviation incident or accidents, and reliably analyzing them for causal factors of human behavior (the why of an incident). We have defined a generic structure of information that is postulated to be a sound basis for defining similarities between aviation incidents. Based on this structure, we have introduced the simplifying structure, which we call the Scenario as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. We believe that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that will aid aviation-safety experts to understand the systemic issues that are conducive to human error.

Maille, Nicolas P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Towards automatic Markov reliability modeling of computer architectures

The analysis and evaluation of reliability measures using time-varying Markov models is required for Processor-Memory-Switch (PMS) structures that have competing processes such as standby redundancy and repair, or renewal processes such as transient or intermittent faults. The task of generating these models is tedious and prone to human error due to the large number of states and transitions involved in any reasonable system. Therefore model formulation is a major analysis bottleneck, and model verification is a major validation problem. The general unfamiliarity of computer architects with Markov modeling techniques further increases the necessity of automating the model formulation. This paper presents an overview of the Automated Reliability Modeling (ARM) program, under development at NASA Langley Research Center. ARM will accept as input a description of the PMS interconnection graph, the behavior of the PMS components, the fault-tolerant strategies, and the operational requirements. The output of ARM will be the reliability of availability Markov model formulated for direct use by evaluation programs. The advantages of such an approach are (a) utility to a large class of users, not necessarily expert in reliability analysis, and (b) a lower probability of human error in the computation.

Liceaga, C. A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thirdhand tobacco smoke exposure increases the genetic background-dependent risk of pan-tumor development in Collaborative Cross mice

Increasing evidence has shown that thirdhand smoke (THS) exposure is likely to induce adverse health effects. An important knowledge gap remains in our understanding of THS exposure related to cancer risk in the human population. Population-based animal models are useful and powerful in investigating the interplay between host genetics and THS exposure on cancer risk. Here, we used the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse population-based model system, which recapitulates the genetic and phenotypic diversity observed in the human population, to assess cancer risk after a short period of exposure, between 4 and 9 weeks of age. Eight CC strains (CC001, CC019, CC026, CC036, CC037, CC041, CC042 and CC051) were included in our study. We quantified pan-tumor incidence, tumor burden per mouse, organ tumor spectrum and tumor-free survival until 18 months of age. At the population level, we observed a significantly increased pan-tumor incidence and tumor burden per mouse in THS-treated mice as compared to the control (p = 3.04E-06). Lung and liver tissues exhibited the largest risk of undergoing tumorigenesis after THS exposure. Tumor-free survival was significantly reduced in THS-treated mice compared to control (p = 0.044). At the individual strain level, we observed a large variation in tumor incidence across the 8 CC strains. CC036 and CC041 exhibited a significant increase in pan-tumor incidence (p = 0.0084 and p = 0.000066, respectively) after THS exposure compared to control. We conclude that early-life THS exposure increases tumor development in CC mice and that host genetic background plays an important role in individual susceptibility to THS-induced tumorigenesis. Genetic background is an important factor that should be taken into account when determining human cancer risk of THS exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

C3F: Collaborative Container-based Model Coupling Framework

Solving complex real-world grand challenge problems requires in-depth collaboration of researchers from multiple disciplines. Such collaboration often involves harnessing multiscale and multi-dimensional data and combining models from different fields to simulate systems. However, the progress on this front has been limited mainly due to significant gaps in domain knowledge and tools that are typically employed in silos of the domains. Researchers from different fields face considerable barriers to understanding and reusing each other’s data/models in order to collaborate effectively. For example, in solving the global sustainability problems, researchers from hydrology, climate science, agriculture, and economics need to run their respective models to study different components of the global and local food, energy and water systems while, at the same time, need to interact with other researchers and integrate the results of one model with another. Developing this kind of model coupling workflow calls for (1) a large amount of data being processed and exchanged across domains and organizations, (2) identifying and processing the output of one model to make it ready for integration into another model, (3) controlling the workflow dynamically so that it runs until a certain convergence condition or other criteria is met, and (4) close collaboration among the modelers to explore, tune, and test the configuration and data transformation needed to link the models. We have developed C3F, a flexible collaborative model coupling framework to help researchers accelerate their model integration and linking efforts by leveraging advanced cyberinfrastructure such as high-performance computing and virtual containers. In this paper, we describe our experience and lessons learned in developing this cyberinfrastructure solution to support the linking of Water Balance Model (WBM) and SIMPLE-G agricultural economic model in an NSF funded INFEWS project and a DOE-funded Program on Coupled Human and Earth Systems (PCHES) to study the implications of groundwater scarcity for food-energy-water systems. The C3F model coupling framework can be extended to facilitate other model linkages as well.

containerization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Building a predictive model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dosimetry in organotypically cultured human bronchial epithelial cells using benzo[ a ]pyrene

The airway epithelium is a primary route of exposure for inhaled toxicants, and organotypic culture models represent an important advancement for toxicity testing compared to simple in vitro models that may lack metabolic capability and multicellular structure/communication associated with the bronchial epithelium in vivo. A quantitative understanding of chemical dosimetry is key for interpreting and extrapolating study results; however, dosimetry is understudied in organotypic models limiting ability to predict toxicity. We developed a dosimetry model for primary human bronchial epithelial cells (HBECs) cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI) using benzo[a]pyrene (BAP), a representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Dose and time course evaluation of metabolite formation and enzyme activity and expression were utilized to parameterize a cellular dosimetry model to improve the utility of ALI-HBECs for assessing chemical risk. Dosimetry analysis demonstrated absorption of BAP into cells and an increase in Phase 1 and 2 metabolites over time that correlated with regulation of metabolizing enzymes. BAP was cleared from cells by 48 h after exposure, and the primary metabolites generated in ALI-HBECs were BAP-3-phenol, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8-dihydrodiol, BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8,9,10-tetrol, BAP-3-phenol-glucuronide, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol-glucuronide, and BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol-glucuronide. The resulting dosimetry model described BAP and 7,8-dihydrodiol toxicokinetics in ALI-HBECs and suggested active excretion of 7,8-dihydrodiol. Overall, this study demonstrates metabolic competency of ALI-HBECs for BAP metabolism, demonstrates the usefulness of complex in vitro systems for human-relevant toxicity data, and exhibits how in silico models can be utilized for understanding the dosimetry of test compounds to aid in in vitro to human extrapolation of toxicity data for risk assessments.

Benzo[a]pyrene↗