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At least 613 records · Page 34

Geographic source attribution of honey by strontium isotope analyses: Latvia and India measurements compared to model predictions in a feasibility study

Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) can be used to determine the geographic origin of agricultural products. Here, in this study, we measured the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey samples from Richland, WA, USA, Latvia, and India, and compared the results to published 87 Sr/ 86 Sr from surrounding areas and values predicted based upon a random forest isoscape model (Bataille et al., 2020). While the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples compared well with previously published data, the model did not accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples, demonstrating that further refinement of the model would be beneficial. Because Sr cycling in terrestrial ecosystems is complex, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey is likely to reflect several sources (e.g., nectar, surface water, dust) and may change over time. In order to accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey, models must consider local geology, ecology, and bee behavior. Additional research examining how Sr is incorporated into honey is needed to inform models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Structurally Controlled Geothermal Systems in the Central Cascades Arc-Backarc Regime, Oregon

The goal of this project has been to analyze available magnetotelluric (MT) geophysical surveys, structural geology based on mapping and LiDAR, and fluid geochemical data, to identify high-temperature fluid upwellings, critically stressed rock volumes, and other evidence of structurally-controlled geothermal resources. Data were to be integrated to create conceptual models of volcanic-hosted geothermal resources along the Central Cascades arc segment, especially in the vicinity of Mt. Jefferson to Three Sisters. LiDAR data sets available at Oregon State University (OSU) allowed detailed structural geology modeling through forest canopy. Copious spring and well fluid chemistries, including isotopes, were modeled using Geo-T and TOUGHREACT software.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Numerical Simulations of Cratering Effects in Adobe

This paper outlines a new simplified approach to developing a material model for adobe. The approach is to fit the equation of state (EOS) using a Mie-Gruneisen (MGR) analytical model with a P-Alpha compaction law, and to fit the pressure-dependent yield surface with the Geological Yield Surface (GEO) modeled in CTH using well characterized adobe. By identifying key parameters that governed material response, this simplified modeling approach aimed to increase the understanding of the shock compaction and compression behavior of adobe. The new simplified model for adobe represented in this paper replicated the features of past experimental penetration data. At low velocities the penetration behavior of steel spheres into adobe is captured by Stokes law, where the drag coefficient is inversely proportional to the Reynolds number. Each inherently different adobe material investigated had a separate linear region with the slope equal to the inverse of the coefficient of drag multiplied by impact velocity. A transition region following the Stokes region was identified in each adobe material, where the penetration depth was constant with increasing impact velocity. This penetration depth limit was shown to be dependent upon the yield strength of the adobe and inversely proportional to the initial density. Finally, examining the sensitivity of the penetration depth to the key model parameters, the material model for adobe was adjusted to provide the best fit to the experimental penetration data. In addition, a simplified water content, or initial saturation of the adobe, was introduced as another relevant parameter to characterize the response. Using this simple material model for adobe, validated with experimental penetration data, the response of adobe targets to hypervelocity impact of a variety of projectile types can be reliably predicted.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulating Isotropic Rayleigh Wave Horizontal to Vertical Ratios at Rock Valley

Elastic anisotropy in the subsurface can manifest from pre-existing structure or stress-induced cracking – both phenomena are of interest at the Rock Valley site in Nevada. The azimuthal dependence of Rayleigh wave ellipticity, also known as H/V, can reveal elastic anisotropy, but the effect of isotropic variability in H/V must first be accounted for. To that end, we simulate synthetic seismograms from a ring of sources in a fully 3-D isotropic velocity model that captures the geology at Rock Valley. We measure H/V from these waveforms and compare them with H/V predictions obtained using 1D models extracted at specific locations from the 3D model. We find that an average of the azimuthal H/V measurements from the 3-D simulations and 1-D predictions agree, but that the azimuthal variability of H/V is a large fraction of the mean value. These results estimate the noise character in azimuthal H/V so it can be factored out of future anisotropic simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise

Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. Regional sea-level projections have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. River deltas globally might lose 5% (~35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The extraordinary radar echoes from Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto - A geological perspective

Electromagnetic echo-scattering models, empirical and theoretical considerations on regolith formation, and ice physics, are presently invoked in a geologic treatment of the anomalous radar properties of the icy Galilean satellites. These are held to arise because of the electrical differences between ice and silicates, and the absence of icy regoliths' ice-density structures in silicate regoliths. Icy regoliths may uniquely smooth out discontinuities between solid ejecta fragments and more porous surroundings, forming refraction-scattering 'lenses'; high-order multiple scatterings will thereby become more likely responsible for the echoes than low-order scattering.

Ostro, Steven J.↗

An Alternative Conceptual Model for the Spent Nuclear Fuel–Water Interaction in Deep Geologic Disposal Conditions

For the long-term safety assessment of direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel in deep geologic repositories, knowledge on the radionuclide release rate from the UO 2 matrix is essential. This work provides a conceptual model to explain the results of leaching experiments involving used nuclear fuel or simulant materials in confirmed reducing conditions. Key elements of this model are: direct effect of radiation from radiolytic species (including defects and excited states) in the solid and in the first water layers in contact with its surface; and excess H 2 may be produced due to processes occurring at the surface of the spent fuel and in confined water volumes, which may also play a role in keeping the spent fuel surface in a reduced state. The implication is that the fractional radionuclide release rate used in most long-term safety assessments (10 -7 year -1 ) is over estimated because it assumes that there is net UO 2 oxidation caused by radiolysis, in contrast with the alternative conceptual model presented here. Furthermore, conventional water radiolysis models and radiation chemical yields published in the literature are not directly applicable to a heterogeneous system such as the spent fuel–water interface. Suggestions are provided for future work to develop more reliable models for the long-term safety assessment of spent nuclear fuel disposal.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Coupling LaGrit unstructured mesh generation and model setup with TOUGH2 flow and transport: A case study

Furthermore, there are many applications in science and engineering modeling where an accurate representation of a complex model geometry in the form of a mesh is important. In applications of flow and transport in subsurface porous media, this is manifest in models that must capture complex geologic stratigraphy, structure (faults, folds, erosion, deposition) and infrastructure (tunnels, boreholes, excavations). Model setup, defined as the activities of geometry definition, mesh generation (creation, optimization, modification, refine, de-refine, smooth), assigning material properties, initial conditions and boundary conditions requires specialized software tools to automate and streamline the process. In addition, some model setup tools will provide more utility if they are designed to interface with and meet the needs of a particular flow and transport software suite. A control volume discretization that uses a two point flux approximation is for example most accurate when the underlying control volumes are 2D or 3D Voronoi tessellations. In this paper we will present the coupling of LaGriT, a mesh generation and model setup software suite and TOUGH2 to model subsurface flow problems and we show an example of how LaGriT can be used as a model setup tool for the generation of a Voronoi mesh for the simulation program TOUGH2. To generate the MESH file for TOUGH2 from the LaGriT output a standalone module Lagrit2Tough2 was developed, which is presented here and will be included in a future release of LaGriT. Here in this paper an alternative method to generate a Voronoi mesh for TOUGH2 with LaGriT is presented and thanks to the modular and command based structure of LaGriT this method is well suited to generating a mesh for complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerical simulation of porosity and permeability evolution of Mount Simon sandstone under geological carbon sequestration conditions

A numerical model was developed with the use of reactive transport code CrunchFlow to estimate porosity, permeability and mineral composition changes of Mount Simon sandstone under typical geological carbon sequestration conditions (P = 23.8 MPa and T = 85 °C). The model predicted a permeability decrease from 1.60 mD to 1.02 mD for the Mount Simon sandstone sample in a static batch reactor after 180 days of exposure to CO 2 -saturated brine, which is consistent with measured permeability results. Model-predicted solution chemistry results were also consistent with laboratory-measured solution chemistry data. SiO 2 (am) was the primary mineral that causes permeability decrease, followed by kaolinite. Both SiO 2 (am) formation and kaolinite formation were attributed to the dissolution of quartz and feldspar. This article shows that the formation of SiO 2 (am) and kaolinite in the pore space of host rock is possible under typical CO2 sequestration conditions. SiO 2 (am) and kaolinite precipitation at the CO 2 plume extent could reduce the permeability of host rock and improve lateral containment of free-phase CO 2 , contributing to overall security of CO 2 storage.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling surface deformations at complex strike-slip plate boundaries

Two new versions of the physical base-traction model of Li and Rice (1987) have been developed to study the loading processes and surface deformation near plate boundaries with geometric complexities, including a shallow creeping fault segment and two subparallel faults. Predictions of surface velocity and surface slip rate for the region between the San Andreas fault and the Pacific coast at the latitude of the Parkfield-Cholame segment using model parameters based on geologic, geodetic, and seismic considerations were found to be in good agreement with contemporary geodetic field data (not used in constrainning model parameters). Also, predicted surface velocity for the Salton Sea-Coachella Valley area were fit to recently derived contemporary geodetic data and very large baseline interferometry data, althoug here the model parameters are not well constrained.

Li, Victor C.↗

Modulating factors of hydrologic exchanges in a large-scale river reach: Insights from three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics simulations

Hyporheic exchange is a critical mechanism shaping hydrological and biogeochemical processes along a river corridor. Recent studies on quantifying the hyporheic exchange were mostly limited to local scales due to field inaccessibility, computational demand, and complexity of geomorphology and subsurface geology. Surface flow conditions and subsurface physical properties are well known factors on modulating the hyporheic exchange, but quantitative understanding of their impacts on the strength and direction of hyporheic exchanges at reach scales is absent. In this study, a high resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model that couples surface and subsurface flow and transport is employed to simulate hyporheic exchanges in a 7-km long reach along the main-stem of the Columbia River. Assuming that the hyporheic exchange does not affect surface water flow conditions due to its negligible magnitude compared to the volume and velocity of river water, we developed a one-way coupled surface and subsurface water flow model using the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. The model integrates the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation solver with a realizable k-e two-layer turbulence model, a two-layer all y^+ wall treatment, and the volume of fluid (VOF) method, and is used to simulate hyporheic exchanges by tracking the free water-air interface as well as flow in the river and the subsurface porous media. The model is validated against measurements from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) in the stream water and hyporheic fluxes derived from a set of temperature profilers installed across the riverbed. The validated model is then employed to systematically investigate how hyporheic exchanges are influenced by surface water fluid dynamics strongly regulated by upstream dam operations, as well as subsurface structures (e.g. thickness of riverbed and subsurface formation layers) and hydrogeological properties (e.g. permeability). The results suggest that the thickness of riverbed alluvium layer is the dominant factor for reach-scale hyporheic exchanges, followed by the alluvium permeability, the depth of the underlying impermeable layer, and the assumption of hydrostatic pressure.

Bao, Jie↗

Numerical modeling of ooid size and the problem of Neoproterozoic giant ooids

Temporal variation in ooid size reflects important changes in physical and chemical characteristics of depositional environments. Two numerical models are used to evaluate the effects of several processes influencing ooid size. The first demonstrates that low supply of new ooid nuclei and high cortex growth rate each promote growth of large ooids. The second model demonstrates that high average water velocity and velocity gradient also enhance ooid growth. Several Neoproterozoic oolites contain unusually large ooids, some reaching diameters of up to 16 mm. While lower nuclei supply and higher ooid growth rate may have prevailed prior to the evolution of carbonate-secreting organisms, neither difference can explain the presence of giant ooids in Neoproterozoic deposits because Archean through Mesoproterozoic ooids rarely exceed 5 mm in diameter. In the presence of lower nuclei supply and higher growth rate, high average water velocity may have allowed growth of such large ooids. Higher average water velocity could have been due to a prevalence of carbonate ramps over rimmed shelves during Neoproterozoic time.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Dimensionally Reduced Model for Rapid and Accurate Prediction of Gas Saturation, Pressure, and Brine Production in a CO 2 Storage Application: Case Study Using the SACROC Field as Part of SMART Task 5

This technical report presents work conducted by the sub surface analysis team of the Strategic Systems Analysis & Engineering group at NETL for Task 5 of SMART Phase 1. This study involved the development of deep learning models for CO 2 geologic storage that are capable of accurate prediction of spatio-temporal outputs of CO 2 saturation, pressure, and brine production in three dimensional space over a storage operation's injection and post-injection timeframes. The model framework involves ensembling multi-layer encoder networks that provide dimesionality reduction of geologic inputs with fully connected long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks that generate time-series prediction This approach offers a means to maximize training time efficiency, reduce computational memory burden, and minimize prediction turnaround.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessment of CO 2 trapping mechanisms in partially depleted oil-bearing sands

The goal of this work is to evaluate various CO 2 sequestration mechanisms occurring in the Morrow B Sandstone in the Farnsworth Unit. A history-matched numerical simulation model was created using extensive geological, petrophysical, and operational data collected from the field. The numerical model is competent to investigate the impact of residual, structural-stratigraphic, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms on the fluid transportation dynamics and petrophysical property variations. The model forecasts the field response of 20 years of WAG injections. Afterward, all wells were shut-in, and the reservoir was allowed to evolve for 1000 years to investigate the fate of injected CO 2 . In this paper, we assess the impacts of various trapping mechanisms on oil recovery and CO 2 storage efficacy. By analyzing the results reported from the numerical simulation model, the in-situ fluid composition and mineralogy changes are also investigated. More importantly, we seek to confirm the petrophysical property variations due to the CO 2 injection with observations from laboratory measurements. The experiences gained from this study provide valuable insights regarding physiochemical storage induced by the CO 2 injection activities and serve as a benchmark case for future CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects involving reactive solute transport.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Numerical Modeling of Anisotropic Elastic-Wave Sensitivity Propagation for Optimal Design of Time-Lapse Seismic Surveys

Reliable subsurface time-lapse seismic monitoring is crucial for many geophysical applications, such as enhanced geothermal system characterization, geologic carbon utilization and storage, and conventional and unconventional oil/gas reservoir characterization, etc. In this work, we develop an elastic-wave sensitivity propagation method for optimal design of cost-effective time-lapse seismic surveys considering the fact that most of subsurface geologic layers and fractured reservoirs are anisotropic instead of isotropic. For anisotropic media, we define monitoring criteria using qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies after decomposing qP- and qS-wave components from the total elastic-wave sensitivity wavefield using a hybrid time- and frequency-domain approach. Geophones should therefore be placed at locations with significant qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring in an anisotropic geology setting. Our numerical modeling results for a modified anisotropic Hess model demonstrate that, compared with the isotropic case, subsurface anisotropy changes the spatial distributions of elastic-wave sensitivity energies. Consequently, it is necessary to consider subsurface anisotropies when designing the spatial distribution of geophones for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring. This finding suggests that it is essential to use our new anisotropic elastic-wave sensitivity modeling method for optimal design of time-lapse seismic surveys to reliably monitor the changes in subsurface reservoirs, fracture zones or target monitoring regions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ishtar deformed belts: Evidence for deformation from below?

The mountain belts of Ishtar Terra are unique on Venus. Models for their formation include mantle upwelling, mantle downwelling, and horizontal convergence. The present forms of these models are too simple to predict surface strain, topography, or gravity. More detailed models will require specific constraints as imposed by geologic relations. In order to develop specific constraints for geodynamic models, we examine the geology of Ishtar Terra as viewed in Magellan SAR imagery in an attempt to interpret regional surface strain patterns. In this paper, we present geologic and structural relations that leads us to postulate that Ishtar deformed belts result from shear forces within the mantle acting on the lithosphere, and not by horizontal forces from colliding plates. We propose that the surface strains result from differential strain and displacement of domains within the upper mantle, and that further analysis of Ishtar deformation may allow us to identify individual domains within the mantle, and to constrain displacement trajectories between domains.

Hansen, V. L.↗

Thermal inertia imaging - A new geologic mapping tool

A thermal model of the earth's surface has been developed and used to determine the thermal inertia of a test site in the Mojave Desert, California. The model, which includes meteorological heating terms as well as radiation and conduction heating terms, is used with remotely sensed surface temperature and reflectance data to determine the thermal inertia of the surface materials at the test site. The thermal inertia is displayed in image form, and can aid in the differentiation of the various lithologic materials in the test site. Since this thermal property is representative of the upper several cm of the surface, it complements visible and reflected near-IR image data.

Kahle, A. B.↗