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At least 613 records · Page 34

A mathematical framework for ejecta cloud dynamics with application to source models and piezoelectric mass measurements

We present a mathematical framework for describing the dynamical evolution of an ejecta cloud generated by a generic ejecta source model. We consider a piezoelectric sensor fielded in the path of an ejecta cloud, for experimental configurations in which the ejecta are created at a singly shocked planar surface and fly ballistically through vacuum to the stationary sensor. To do so, we introduce the concept of a time- and velocity-dependent ejecta “areal mass function.” We derive expressions for the analytic (“true”) accumulated ejecta areal mass at the sensor and the measured (“inferred”) value obtained via the standard method for analyzing piezoelectric voltages. In this way, we derive an exact expression and upper bound for the error imposed upon a piezoelectric ejecta mass measurement (in a perfect system) by the assumption of instantaneous creation, which is commonly required for momentum diagnostic analyses. This error term is zero for truly instantaneous source models; otherwise, the standard piezoelectric analysis is guaranteed to overestimate the true mass. When combined with a piezoelectric dataset, this framework provides a unique solution for the ejecta particle velocity distribution, subject to the assumptions inherent in the data analysis. The framework also leads to strong boundary conditions that any ejecta source model must satisfy in order to be consistent with apparently global properties of piezoelectric measurements from a wide range of experiments. We demonstrate this methodology by applying it to the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability+self-similar velocity distribution ejecta source model currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

AI-Optimized Polarization at Jefferson Lab

The AI-Optimized Polarization project seeks to develop experimental control applications for polarized targets and beams at Jefferson Lab using AI/ML. This paper will focus on two ongoing efforts involving a cryogenic polarized target and a linearly-polarized photon beam. Firstly, cryogenic targets, such as those used in Halls B and C (and approved for Hall D), are complex systems that are sensitive to a number of factors, including the temperature, beam currents, and the microwave and NMR apparatus. Secondly, the Hall D photon beam polarization depends on the optimal orientation of a diamond radiator, which produces coherent bremsstrahlung radiation from the electron beam incident upon it. Manual operation of both systems is tedious and error prone; implementing well-designed, interpretable control systems that incorporate AI is expected to lead to improved real-time polarization. AI optimization of nuclear physics experiments will lead, not just to cost-savings, but also to more efficient and higher-quality data, and this project will help to lay the foundation for future autonomous experiments.

Moran, Patrick [College of William and Mary, Willi↗

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters

Accurately predicting the criticality of an experiment before interacting with the experimental components is very important for criticality safety. Radiation transport software can be utilized to calculate the effective neutron multiplication factor of a nuclear system. Because of the integral nature of the effective neutron multiplication factor, the value calculated contains various sources of nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The sensitivity analysis and data assimilation technique presented in this paper exhibit one possible method of identifying and reducing the effective neutron multiplication factor nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The results presented in this work show that it is possible to use relative sensitivity coefficients of the prompt neutron decay constant and the effective delayed neutron fraction to 239 Pu nuclear data to reduce nuclear-data induced uncertainties in the effective neutron multiplication factor. This work has been utilized by members of the Los Alamos National Laboratory project EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) for optimally designing a new experiment, which will be used to reduce compensating errors in 239 Pu nuclear data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Prediction of the Equivalent Alkane Carbon Number for Microemulsions Based on Molecular Properties

The chemical properties of oils are vital in the design of microemulsion systems. The hydrophilic–lipophilic difference equation used to predict microemulsions’ phase behavior expresses the oils’ physiochemical properties as the equivalent alkane carbon number (EACN). The experimental determination of EACN requires knowledge of the temperature dependence of the microemulsion system and the effects of different surfactant concentrations. Thus, the experimental determination is time-intensive and tedious, requiring days to months for proper separations. Furthermore, the experiments require high purity of chemicals because microemulsions are sensitive to impurities. Our work focuses on the quick and reliable predictions of the EACN with machine learning (ML) models. Due to the immaturity of ML chemical predictions, we compare three graph neural networks (GNNs) and a gradient-boosted tree algorithm, known as XGBoost. The GNNs use the molecular structures represented as simplified molecular-input line-entry system (SMILES) codes for the initial input, which allows us to assess whether geometry optimization is necessary for reliable results. The XGBoost model also begins with the SMILES representations of the molecules but uses molecular descriptors instead of geometry optimizations. As a result, the best model tested (crystal graph convolutional neural network with Merck molecular force field-94) has an error of 1.15 EACN units of the true EACN for unknown data with the errors skewed toward zero and an R² score of 0.9

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Towards a neutron multiplicity measurement with the Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a 26 ton Gadolinium (Gd)-loaded water Cherenkov detector located on the Booster Neutrino Beam line at Fermilab. Its main goals are the measurement of the neutron multiplicity in neutrino-nucleus interactions as well as the cross-section of Charged Current Quasi-Elastic (CCQE) neutrino interactions on water. Besides the physics goals, the experiment also aims to be a testbed for new technologies such as Large Area Picosecond Photodetectors (LAPPDs) and Water-based Liquid Scintillators (WbLS). This thesis presents a preliminary measurement of the neutron multiplicity with {ANNIE}, using an analysis conducted on a fraction of the 2021 beam year. As preparatory measures, the efficiency of ANNIE's Front Muon Veto (FMV) was determined to be {$\bar{\varepsilon}_{\mathrm{FMV}} = (95.6 \pm 1.6)\%$} while the average efficiency for active scintillator paddles in the Muon Range Detector (MRD) was found to be {$\bar{\varepsilon}_ {\mathrm{MRD}} = (92.1 \pm 7.9)\%$}. Furthermore, the simulation framework used for ANNIE was validated and adapted to reproduce the experimental data by comparing the detector response for samples of Michel electrons, Americium Beryllium neutrons, and through-going muons. The analysis finds average neutron yields of {$\bar{n}_{\mathrm{data}} (\mathrm{beam}) = (0.272 \pm 0.010_{\mathrm{stat}})$} for an inclusive set of all identified muon neutrino candidates and {$\bar{n}_{\mathrm{data}} (\mathrm{beam,FV}) = (0.287 \pm 0.044_{\mathrm{stat}})$ for interactions which happened inside of the Fiducial Volume of ANNIE, which was optimized to increase the neutron detection acceptance. The presented neutron multiplicity values represent the number of detected neutrons after all event selection cuts and are not yet corrected for the neutron detection efficiency. An equivalent analysis on a simulated beam sample predicts neutron yields of $\bar{n}_{\mathrm{MC}}(\mathrm{beam}) = (0.515 \pm 0.0 07_{\mathrm{stat}})$ and $\bar{n}_{\mathrm{MC}}(\mathrm{beam,FV}) = (0.627 \pm 0.031_{\mathrm{stat}})$, indicating that the models tend to overpredict the number of neutrons produced in such interactions. Systematic errors have been briefly considered to contribute {$\sigma_{\mathrm{sys,FMV}} \sim 0.01\,$neutrons/$\nu$-interaction} due to the slight FMV inefficiency and {$\sigma_{\mathrm{sys,n}} \sim 0.05\,$neutrons/$\nu$-interaction} due to the neutron detection efficiency. Simulation studies further highlighted the importance of neutron detection in Diffuse Supernova Background (DSNB) searches. A combination of neutron tagging and Convolutional Neural Networks was found to reduce the most relevant Neutral Current Quasi-Elastic (NCQE) interaction background below the signal level, achieving a Signal-to-Background ratio of 4:1. In a further study, we investigated the positive impact of a deployment of a WbLS target on the energy reconstruction in ANNIE. WbLS provides a scintillation signal from hadronic recoils in addition to the charged lepton that can be included in neutrino energy reconstruction. It was found that a deployed WbLS volume in ANNIE improves the neutrino energy reconstruction from 14\% to 12\%, with the potential of going beyond this if more sophisticated reconstruction algorithms are developed in the future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A machine learning approach to quantify degradation of nuclear fuels and the effects of fission products

Nuclear fuel performance is critically dependent on understanding the evolution of fuel properties under operational conditions, a complex challenge driven by chemical changes and substantial radiation damage during fission. Traditionally, property evolution has been determined via empirical data collected following irradiation. However, these empirical correlations are limited in their applicability beyond the specific conditions in which they were obtained. This study explores a novel approach to address this challenge by applying materials informatics to develop a machine learning random forest (ML-RF) model that captures the effects of fission products on fuel compounds. The model predicts formation enthalpy (ΔH f ) by leveraging extensive quantum materials property data and correlating it with material descriptors such as composition, atomic and site features, and crystal lattice properties. This ML-RF model enables rapid interpolation across the compositional and structural spaces covered by the training data, thus supporting high-throughput screening and energetic ranking of candidate phases. The model demonstrates the ability to predict ΔH f with a mean absolute error (MAE) of approximately 0.1 to 0.2 eV/atom across a wide range of compounds, including key nuclear fuel systems (U-O, U-N, U-C, U-Si, and U-Mo). For example, it was used to assess shifts in stoichiometry for UO 2 (O/M) and UN (N/M) fuels, revealing their distinct tendencies in chemical potential variation and enabling preliminary convex hull analyses. Furthermore, the model provides insights into how individual fission products affect fuel properties. Results indicate that larger fission products (e.g., Nd, Pu, Ce) have a more pronounced impact on UO 2 , while lighter ones (e.g., Zr) strongly influence UN. Here, the model developed in this work can be used to support the Accelerated Fuel Qualification approach by facilitating preliminary evaluations prior to extensive materials modeling and experimentation. To this end, the trained model has been made available to the fuel community to support ongoing fuel development efforts.

Accelerated fuel qualification↗

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of char conversion in Sandia’s pressurized entrained flow reactor

Design and analysis of practical reactors utilizing solid feedstocks rely on reaction rate parameters that are typically generated in lab-scale reactors. Evaluation of the reaction rate information often relies on assumptions of uniform temperature, velocity, and species distributions in the reactor, in lieu of detailed measurements that provide local information. This assumption might be a source of substantial error, since reactor designs can impose significant inhomogeneities, leading to data misinterpretation. Spatially resolved reactor simulations help understand the key processes within the reactor and support the identification of severe variations of temperature, velocity, and species distributions. In this work, Sandia’s pressurized entrained flow reactor is modeled to identify inhomogeneities in the reaction zone. Tracer particles are tracked through the reactor to estimate the residence times and burnout ratio of introduced coal char particles in gasifying environments. The results reveal a complex mixing environment for the cool gas and particles entering the reactor along the centerline and the main high-speed hot gas reactor flow. Furthermore, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results show that flow asymmetries are introduced through the use of a horizontal gas pre-heating section that connects to the vertical reactor tube. Computed particle temperatures and residence times in the reactor differ substantially from the idealized plug flow conditions typically evoked in interpreting experimental measurements. Furthermore, experimental measurements and CFD analysis of heat flow through porous refractory insulation suggest that for the investigated conditions (1350 °C, <20 atm), the thermal conductivity of the insulation does not increase substantially with increasing pressure.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Multi-Scale Computational Platform for Predictive Modeling of Corrosion in Al-Steel Joints (Final Report)

The research team proposed to develop innovative multi-scale models to predict corrosion and the resulting mechanical performances in aluminum-steel joints. The methods of joining considered are resistance spot welding, self-piercing riveting, and rivet-welding, all suitable for mass production applications. The multi-scale models integrate high throughput first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), high throughput calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling, and finite element method (FEM) simulations. These models are to be validated through laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the models are available as open source so as to enable scientists and engineers in the community to adapt and contribute to the development and application. The approaches rely on the research team’s extensive experience on the prediction of properties of individual phases at finite temperatures and variable compositions through DFT calculations, and our broad expertise on dissimilar material joining and their corrosion. The proposed computational framework enables high throughput computations for improved predictions of corrosion and the associated mechanical performance in dissimilar material joints, resulting in significant reduction in computational time needed by the current state-of-the-art methods. With the participation of researchers from three universities, an auto manufacturer, two manufacturing technology/equipment suppliers, and a software developer/vendor, the interdisciplinary research team applies the technical development on both phase-based modeling and laboratory experiments into the automobile body joining processes for validation and technology demonstration. The global cost of corrosion was estimated at about 3.4% of the global GDP in 2013. By using available corrosion control practices, it is estimated a saving between 15-35% of the cost of corrosion. In the U.S., more than $276 billion is spent repairing corrosion damage. Prediction of the corrosion and its impact on performance of the dissimilar material joints is critical for reducing the massive number of the current corrosion-based recalls for automobiles. Thus, the project goal is to develop models to enable predictive maintenance and end-of-life planning of multi-metal joints with risk of corrosion under different conditions such as exposure to high temperatures in summer and salt solutions in winter, quantified through its pH. An academia-industry consortium led by the University of Michigan and including Pennsylvania State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Georgia, General Motors Company, Livermore Software Technology Corporation, and Optimal Process Technologies, LLC. created multi-scale models for prediction of corrosion in aluminum-steel joint structures such of them used in vehicle subassemblies – chassis and transmission systems. Starting from the first principle calculations, the team developed mathematical and data-driven models to predict the metallic components, which are formed during joining of two metals, for example aluminum and steel - a lightweight multilateral system which is currently used in more than 60% car bodies. These models were used for simulating chemical reactions that are happening when the joining metallic components are exposed to high temperatures and different pH values. The team was able to predict how the corrosion installs on the metallic components and how they lead to a sudden failure of components in cars. Newly developed machine learning algorithms combining Science, Technology, Engineering and Math disciplines, advanced finite element simulation and experimental validations have been integrated in a platform for prediction of the corrosion evolution and prediction the failure of joints under mechanical loadings and fatigue. Moreover, based on machine learning and inverse analysis, the team proposed solutions for designing new metallic alloys less susceptible to corrosion when joining multi-material assembles. An average of 4% error compared with experiments was achieved for the most common joints that are used in vehicle subassemblies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A First-Principles Approach to Modeling Surface Site Stabilities on Multimetallic Catalysts

The study of multimetallic alloys and the multitude of possible surface compositions have sparked a tremendous interest in engineering low-cost materials with high activity and selectivity in heterogeneous catalysis. Multimetallic systems provide complementary functionalities and an unprecedented tunability when designing catalyst formulations. However, due to their immense structural and compositional complexity, the investigation and identification of an optimal catalyst is a tedious and time-consuming process, both experimentally and theoretically. Therefore, theoretical design principles are highly desirable to accelerate the screening of catalyst structures across the vast compositional space. In this paper, we introduce a simple and general model for predicting the site stability of multimetallic surfaces and nanoparticles, which is based on physical principles. The model requires only a small set of density functional theory (DFT) calculations of metal atom binding energies on monometallic and dilute alloy surface slabs to optimize the parameters in the simple model. The resulting model allows for the quantification of the stability of any particular atom site in any conceivable chemical environment across a wide range of morphologies, sizes, and arrangements by interpolating the derived parameters from a monometallic system to a completely diluted alloyed system. Herein, we demonstrate the robustness of the model across an extensive data set of transition metal alloy surfaces and 147-atoms cuboctahedral nanoparticles (NPs) composed of IrRhRu and PtPdRu. In conclusion, our approach yields mean absolute errors of ≈0.15 (IrRhRu), 0.20 (PtPdRu), 0.19 (IrRhRu NP), and 0.26 (PtPdRu NP) eV relative to site binding energies calculated using DFT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigating boosted decision trees as a guide for inertial confinement fusion design

Inertial confined fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility have recently entered a new regime approaching ignition. Improved modeling and exploration of the experimental parameter space were essential to deepening our understanding of the mechanisms that degrade and amplify the neutron yield. The growing prevalence of machine learning in fusion studies opens a new avenue for investigation. Here in this paper, we have applied the Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree machine-learning architecture to further explore the parameter space and find correlations with the neutron yield, a key performance indicator. We find reasonable agreement between the measured and predicted yield, with a mean absolute percentage error on a randomly assigned test set of 35.5%. This model finds the characteristics of the laser pulse to be the most influential in prediction, as well as the hohlraum laser entrance hole diameter and an enhanced capsule fabrication technique. We used the trained model to scan over the design space of experiments from three different campaigns to evaluate the potential of this technique to provide design changes that could improve the resulting neutron yield. While these data-driven model cannot predict ignition without examples of ignited shots in the training set, it can be used to indicate that an unseen shot design will at least be in the upper range of previously observed neutron yields.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Machine-learning prediction for quasiparton distribution function matrix elements

There have been rapid developments in the direct calculation in lattice QCD (LQCD) of the Bjorken-x dependence of hadron structure through large-momentum effective theory (LaMET). LaMET overcomes the previous limitation of LQCD to moments (that is, integrals over Bjorken x) of hadron structure, allowing LQCD to directly provide the kinematic regions where the experimental values are least known. LaMET requires large-momentum hadron states to minimize its systematics and allow us to reach small- x reliably. This means that very fine lattice spacing to minimize lattice artifacts at order $(P_za)^n$ will become crucial for next-generation LaMET-like structure calculations. Furthermore, such calculations require operators with long Wilson-link displacements, especially in finer lattice units, increasing the communication costs relative to that of the propagator inversion. In this work, we explore whether machine-learning algorithms can make predictions of correlators to reduce the computational cost of these LQCD calculations. We consider two algorithms, gradient-boosting decision tree and linear models, applied to LaMET data, the matrix elements needed to determine the kaon and $η_s$ unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs), meson distribution amplitude (DA), and the nucleon gluon PDF. We find that both algorithms can reliably predict the target observables with different prediction accuracy and systematic errors. The predictions from smaller displacement z to larger ones work better than those for momentum p due to the higher correlation among the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Experimental discovery of structure–property relationships in ferroelectric materials via active learning

Emergent functionalities of structural and topological defects in ferroelectric materials underpin an extremely broad spectrum of applications ranging from domain wall electronics to high dielectric and electromechanical responses. Many of these functionalities have been discovered and quantified via local scanning probe microscopy methods. However, the search has until now been based on either trial and error, or using auxiliary information such as the topography or domain wall structure to identify potential objects of interest on the basis of the intuition of operator or pre-existing hypotheses, with subsequent manual exploration. Here we report the development and implementation of a machine learning framework that actively discovers relationships between local domain structure and polarization-switching characteristics in ferroelectric materials encoded in the hysteresis loop. The hysteresis loops and their scalar descriptors such as nucleation bias, coercive bias and the hysteresis loop area (or more complex functionals of hysteresis loop shape) and corresponding uncertainties are used to guide the discovery of these relationships via automated piezoresponse force microscopy and spectroscopy experiments. As such, this approach combines the power of machine learning methods to learn the correlative relationships between high-dimensional data, as well as human-based physics insights encoded into the acquisition function. For ferroelectric materials, this automated workflow demonstrates that the discovery path and sampling points of on- and off-field hysteresis loops are largely different, indicating that on- and off-field hysteresis loops are dominated by different mechanisms. Here, the proposed approach is universal and can be applied to a broad range of modern imaging and spectroscopy methods ranging from other scanning probe microscopy modalities to electron microscopy and chemical imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development, calibration, and validation of a novel gray-box energy model for residential split air conditioners

Energy models for vapor compression refrigeration in residential air conditioners have been developed through white-box, gray-box, and black-box methods in decades. However, existing white-box and gray-box models require complicated equations with detailed geometries while black-box models require substantial experimental data. Further, this paper aims to develop and validate a simple gray-box steady-state energy model without the need for detailed geometries, which can accurately predict the cooling capacity and electrical power input based on outdoor and indoor air conditions, and supply airflow rates. First three state variables, including the evaporation and condensation temperatures, and refrigerant mass flowrate, are applied to develop the energy model and are solved by three physical equations, including the energy conservations at the evaporator and condenser, and the refrigerant volume-mass flow correlation of the compressor. Secondly, seven performance property functions related to three state variables and three physical equations are identified and calibrated by simple temperature and power measurements. Finally, field experiments are conducted on a residential air conditioner to calibrate these performance property functions and validate the developed model. The validated results reveal the model can accurately predict the cooling capacity and electrical power input, with the normalized root mean square errors of 2.3% and 0.87% respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Accurate Machine Learning for Predicting the Viscosities of Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are emerging as environmentally friendly designer solvents for mass transport and heat transfer processes in industrial applications; however, the lack of accurate tools to predict and thus control their viscosities under both a range of environmental factors and formulations hinders their general application. While DESs may serve as designer solvents, with nearly unlimited combinations, this unfortunately makes it experimentally infeasible to comprehensively measure the viscosities of all DESs of potential industrial interest. To assist in the design of DESs, we have developed several new machine learning (ML) models that accurately and rapidly predict the viscosities of a diverse group of DESs at different temperatures and molar ratios using, to date, one of the most comprehensive data sets containing the properties of over 670 DESs over a wide range of temperatures (278.15–385.25 K). Three ML models, including support vector regression (SVR), feed forward neural networks (FFNNs), and categorical boosting (CatBoost), were developed to predict DES viscosity as a function of temperature and molar ratio and contrasted with multilinear and two-factor polynomial regression baselines. Further, quantum chemistry-based, COSMO-RS-derived sigma profile (σ-profile) features were used as inputs for the ML models. The CatBoost model is excellent at externally predicting DES viscosity, as indicated by high R 2 (0.99) and low root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and average absolute relative deviations (AARD) (5.22%) values for the testing data sets, and 98% of the data points lie within the 15% of AARD deviations. Furthermore, SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results and rationalize the viscosity predictions. The result is an ML approach that accurately predicts viscosity and will aid in accelerating the design of appropriate DESs for industrial applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗