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NASA NTRS1991

GLObal Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) Pacific survey mission

NASA conducted the GLObal Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) Survey Mission over the near coastal and remote Pacific Ocean during 6 to 30 Nov. 1989 (GLOBE 1) and 13 May to 5 Jun. 1990 (GLOBE 2). These missions studied the optical, physical, and chemical properties of atmospheric aerosols. Particular emphasis was given to the magnitude and spatial variability of aerosol backscatter coefficients at mid-infrared wavelengths, and to the remote middle and upper troposphere, where these aerosol properties are poorly understood. Survey instruments were selected to provide either direct beta measurements at the key wavelengths, empirical links with long term or global scale aerosol climatologies, or aerosol microphysics data required to model any of these quantities. The survey deployment included both long distance 6 to 8 hour transit flights and detailed 4 to 6 hour local flights. Several general features were observed from preliminary Survey data analyses. Validation and intercomparison results have shown good agreement, usually better than a factor of two. Atmospheric aerosols frequently exhibited a three layer vertical structure, with (1) high and fairly uniform backscatter in the shallow cloud capped marine boundary layer; (2) moderate and highly variable backscatter in a deeper overlaying cloud pumped layer; and (3) low, regionally uniform, but seasonally and latitudinally variable backscatter in the middle and upper troposphere. The survey missions represent two isolated snapshots of a small portion of the global aerosol system. Consequently, Survey results can best be understood by synthesizing them with the more comprehensive GLOBE data base, which is being compiled at NASA-Marshall.

Bowdle, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Designing an Exploration Atmosphere Prebreathe Protocol

Extravehicular activities (EVAs) at remote locations must maximize limited resources such as oxygen (O2) and also minimize the risk of decompression sickness (DCS). A proposed remote denitrogenation (prebreathe) protocol requires astronauts to live in a mildly hypoxic atmosphere at 8.2 psia while periodically performing EVAs at 4.3 psia. Empirical data are required to confirm that the protocol meets the current accept requirements: less than or equal to 15% incidence of Type I DCS, less than or equal to 20% incidence of Grade IV venous gas emboli (VGE), both at 95% statistical confidence, with no Type II DCS symptom during the validation trial. METHODS: A repeated measures statistical design is proposed in which groups of 6 subjects with physical characteristics similar to active-duty astronauts would first become equilibrated to an 8.2 psia atmosphere in a hypobaric chamber containing 34% O2 and 66% N2, over 48 h, and then perform 4 simulated EVAs at 4.3 psia over the next 9 days. In the equilibration phase, subjects undergo a 3-h 100% O2 mask prebreathe prior to and during a 5-min ascent to 8.2 psia to prevent significant tissue N2 supersaturation on reaching 8.2 psia. Masks would be removed once 34% O2 is established at 8.2 psia, and subjects would then equilibrate to this atmosphere for 48 h. The hypoxia is equivalent to breathing air at 1,220 meters (4,000 ft) altitude, just as was experienced in the shuttle 10.2 psia - 26.5% O2 staged denitrogenation protocol and the current ISS campout denitrogenation protocol. For simulated EVAs, each subject dons a mask and breathes 85% O2 and 15% N2 during a 3-min depressurization to 6.0 psia, holds for 15 min, and then completes a 3-min depressurization to 4.3 psia. The simulated EVA period starts when 6.0 psia is reached and continues for a total of 240 min (222 min at 4.3 psia). During this time, subjects will follow a prescribed repetitive activity against loads in the upper and lower body with mean metabolic rate approaching 1500 BTU/hr [378 kcal/hr (O2 consumption about 1.3 l(sub STPD)/min)] in ambulatory subjects. Noninvasive Doppler ultrasound bubble monitoring for VGE in the pulmonary artery will be performed on subjects by 2 Doppler Technicians at about 15 min intervals while at 4.3 psia. At the end of this period, a 15-min repressurization returns all subjects back to 8.2 psia and the cycle is repeated 3 additional times with a day of rest between simulated EVAs. RESULTS: With an assumed 1.5% probability of DCS [P(DCS)] and accounting for within-subject correlation, running the proposed study with 20 subjects has a 95% probability of meeting the accept criterion for DCS. But if the true probability of DCS is 3.0%, then 30 subjects would be needed to achieve about the same probability to meet our accept criterion. These results assume a standard deviation of 1.4 for the between-subjects random component of P(DCS) on a logit scale, which was estimated from a previous study.

Conkin, Johnny↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Semi-Empirical Scheme for Bathymetric Mapping in Shallow Water by ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2: A Case Study in the South China Sea

To derive shallow water bathymetry for coastal areas, a common approach is to deploy a scanning airborne bathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system or a shipborne echosounder for ground surveys. However, recent advancements in satellite remote sensing, including the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) offer new tools for generating satellite derived bathymetry (SDB). The key payload onboard ICESat-2 is the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), a micro-pulse, photon-counting LiDAR system, simultaneously emitting six separate 532 nm beams at 10 kHz pulse rate. However, despite its high resolution, the major limitation for bathymetry is that ICESat-2 only provides along-track height profiles, leaving observation gaps between the parallel ground tracks. Merging ICESat-2 observations with optical multispectral imagery, as demonstrated herein, provides an effective solution for deriving a full scene of water depth in light of the spectral attenuation behavior. This study aims to combine ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2 optical data to derive shallow water bathymetry (depth <20 m) at six islands and reefs in the South China Sea. ICESat-2 ATL03 point clouds of georeferenced photons are first filtered to determine the seafloor elevation along the ground track. Results indicate a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.26–0.61 m as compared with independent observations from an airborne LiDAR campaign. Next, three semi-empirical functions, namely the Modified Linear/Polynomial/Exponential Ratio Models with its kernel formed by the log ratio between Sentinel-2′s green and blue bands, are used to fit the spectral data with ICESat-2 height profiles. After water depth mapping using the trained model, independent ICESat-2 point clouds are used to validate the Sentinel-2 derived bathymetry. The RMSE values of the three models using the weighted average of multiple images for these six islands are within 0.50–0.90 m in 0–15 m deep. We also demonstrate that a synthesis of satellite laser altimetry and optical remote sensing can produce SDB results that potentially meet the requirement of category C in Zones of Confidence (ZOC) of the Electronic Navigational Chart (ENC) in 0–8 m deep. It is foreseen that ICESat-2 will be a helpful tool for mapping coastal and shallow waters around the world especially where bathymetric data are unavailable.

Coastal Bathymetry↗

NASA NTRS2015

Description, Usage, and Validation of the MVL-15 Modified Vortex Lattice Analysis Capability

MVL-15 is the most recent version of the Modified Vortex-Lattice (MVL) code developed within the Aerodynamics Systems Analysis Branch (ASAB) at NASA LaRC. The term "modified" refers to the primary modification of the core vortex-lattice methodology: inclusion of viscous aerodynamics tables that are linked to the linear solution via iterative processes. The inclusion of the viscous aerodynamics inherently converts the MVL-15 from a purely analytic linearized method to a semi-empirical blend which retains the rapid execution speed of the linearized method while empirically characterizing the section aerodynamics at all spanwise lattice points. The modification provides a means to assess non-linear effects on lift that occur at angles of attack near stall, and provides a means to determine the drag associated with the application of design strategies for lift augmentation such as the use of flaps or blowing. The MVL-15 code is applicable to the analyses of aircraft aerodynamics during cruise, but it is most advantageously applied to the analysis of aircraft operating in various high-lift configurations. The MVL methodology has been previously conceived and implemented; the initial concept version was delivered to the ASAB in 2001 (van Dam, C.), subsequently revised (Gelhausen, P. and Ozoroski, T. 2002 / AVID Inc., Gelhausen, P., and Roberts, M. 2004), and then overhauled (Ozoroski, T., Hahn, A. 2008). The latest version, MVL-15 has been refined to provide analysis transparency and enhanced to meet the analysis requirements of the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project. Each revision has been implemented with reasonable success. Separate applications of the methodology are in use, including a similar in-house capability, developed by Olson, E. that is tailored for structural and acoustics analyses. A central premise of the methodology is that viscous aerodynamic data can be associated with analytic inviscid aerodynamic results at each spanwise wing section, thereby providing a pathway to map viscous data to the inviscid results. However, a number of factors can sidetrack the analysis consistency during various stages of this process. For example, it should be expected that the final airplane lift curve and drag polar results depend strongly on the geometry and aerodynamics of the airfoil section; however, flap deflections and flap chord extensions change the local reference geometry of the input airfoil, the airplane wing, the tabulated non-dimensional viscous aerodynamics, and the spanwise links between the linear and the viscous aerodynamics. These changes also affect the bound circulation and therefore, calculation and integration of the induced angle of attack and induced drag. MVL-15 is configured to ensure these types of challenges are properly addressed. This report is a comprehensive manual describing the theory, use, and validation of the MVL-15 analysis tool. Section 3 summarizes theoretical, procedural, and characteristic features of MVL-15, and includes a list of the files required to setup, execute, and summarize an analysis. Section 4, Section 5, Section 6, and Section 7 combine to comprise the User's Guide portions of this report. The MVL-15 input and output files are described in Section 4 and Section 5, respectively; the descriptions are supplemented with example files and information about the file formats, parameter definitions, and typical parameter values. Section 6 describes the Wing Geometry Setup Utility and the 2d-Variants Utility files that simplify and assist setting up a consistent set of MVL-15 geometry and aerodynamics input parameters and input files. Section 7 describes the use of the 3d-Results Presentation Utility file that can be used to automatically create summary tables and charts from the MVL-15 output files. Section 8 documents the Validation Results of an extensive and varied validation test matrix, including results of an airplane analysis representative of the ERA Program. A start-to-finish example of the airplane analysis procedure is described in Section 7.

Ozoroski, Thomas A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Maximum likelihood estimation of difference scaling functions for suprathreshold judgments

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been used to produce perceptual scales from binary judgments of triads and quadruples. This method relies on Thurstone’s theory of a stochastic perceptual process where the perceived difference of two stimuli is the difference in their perceived strengths. It is possible that the perception of a suprathreshold difference is overestimated when adding smaller differences, a phenomenon referred to as diminishing returns. The current approach to construct a perceptual scale using MLE does not account for this phenomenon. We present a way to model the perception of differences using MLE and Thurstone’s theory, adapted to allow the possibility of diminishing returns. This method is validated using Monte Carlo simulated responses to experimental triads and can correctly model diminishing returns, the absence of diminishing returns, and the opposite of diminishing returns both in the cases when a perceptual scale is known and when the true perceived strengths of the stimuli are unknown. Additionally, this method was applied to empirical data sets to determine its feasibility in investigations of perception. Ultimately, it was found that this analysis allows for more accurate modeling of suprathreshold difference judgments, a more complete understanding of the perceptual processes underlying comparisons, and the evaluation of Thurstone’s theory of difference judgments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Design of a wing shape for study of hypersonic crossflow transition in flight

Computational fluid dynamics methods were used in the design of a wing shape for study of hypersonic crossflow transition in flight. The flight experiment is to be performed on the delta wing of the first stage of a Pegasus launch vehicle as a piggy-back experiment to support boundary-layer stability code development and validation. The design goal is to obtain crossflow-induced transition at 20-40 percent of the chord for a flight Mach number of approximately six. The present paper describes the design and analysis process utilized to obtain desired glove shape. A variety of schemes were used in the design, ranging from simple empirical crossflow correlations to three-dimensional Navier-Stokes codes in conjunction with linear stability/N-factor computations. The sensitivity to various parameters, such as trajectory variations, allowable wing thickness, leading-edge radius and surface temperature, is also discussed.

Godil, A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Stress Tuning of Laser Crystals

The topic of stress tunable laser crystals is addressed in this study with the purpose of determining the piezo-optic coefficients of a new laser material. This data was collected using a quadruple pass birefringence technique because of its high degree of sensitivity relative to the other methods examined including fringe shift analysis using a Mach-Zender interferometer. A green He-Ne laser was passed through a light chopper and Glan-Thompson prism before entering a crystal of Erbium doped Yttrium Aluminum Garnet (Er:YAG) (used in order to validate the experimental technique). The Er:YAG crystal is mounted in a press mechanism and the laser is quadruple passed through test specimen before being returned through the prism and the orthogonally polarized portion of the beam measured with a optical sensor. At a later stage, the Er:YAG crystal was replaced with a new crystal in order to determine the piezo-optic coefficients of this uncharacterized material. The applied load was monitored with the use of a 50 lb. load cell placed in line with the press. Light transmission readings were taken using a lock-in amplifier while load cell measurements were taken with a voltmeter from a 5 volt, 0.5 amp power supply. Despite the fact that an effective crystal press damping system was developed, size limitations precluded the use of the complete system. For this reason, data points were taken only once per full turn so as to minimize the effect of non uniform load application on the collected data. Good correlation was found in the transmission data between the experimentally determined Er:YAG and the previously known peizo-optic constants of non-doped crystal with which it was compared. The variation which was found between the two could be accounted for by the aforementioned presence of Erbium in the experimental sample (for which exact empirical data was not known). The same test procedure was then carried out on a Yttrium Gallium Aluminum garnet (YGAG) for the purpose of establishing values of its unknown piezo-optic constant tensor using experimentally collected transmission data. Significant variation between the piezo-optic constants of YAG and YGAG crystals was found however, the excellent data correlation of separate experimental runs carried out on the YGAG sample demonstrates the validity of these results. The data collected during the stressing of the YGAG was of high quality, however the amount of data collected was somewhat limited by a fracture of YGAG specimen which undoubted altered the crystalline lattice structure and hence precluded any further testing.

Carty, Atherton A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A review of NEST models for liquid xenon and an exhaustive comparison with other approaches

This paper discusses the microphysical simulation of interactions in liquid xenon, the active detector medium in many leading rare-event searches for new physics, and describes experimental observables useful for understanding detector performance. The scintillation and ionization yield distributions for signal and background are presented using the Noble Element Simulation Technique (NEST), a toolkit based on experimental data and simple empirical formulas, which mimic previous microphysics modeling but are guided by data. The NEST models for light and charge production as a function of the particle type, energy, and electric field are reviewed, along with models for energy resolution and final pulse areas. NEST is compared with other models or sets of models and validated against real data, with several specific examples drawn from XENON, ZEPLIN, LUX, LZ, PandaX, and table-top experiments used for calibrations.

WIMPs↗

NASA NTRS1985

A new world survey expression for cosmic ray vertical intensity vs. depth in standard rock

The cosmic ray data on vertical intensity versus depth below 10 to the 5th power g sq cm is fitted to a 5 parameter empirical formula to give an analytical expression for interpretation of muon fluxes in underground measurements. This expression updates earlier published results and complements the more precise curves obtained by numerical integration or Monte Carlo techniques in which the fit is made to an energy spectrum at the top of the atmosphere. The expression is valid in the transitional region where neutrino induced muons begin to be important, as well as at great depths where this component becomes dominant.

Crouch, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Acoustic Simulations of Two-stage Fans Behind a Supersonic Inlet

NASA created, validated, and applied a high fidelity simulation toolchain for noise prediction of a fan system for a near-term civilian supersonic aircraft engine. A high fidelity inlet and multistage fan design were acquired as the basis for physics based computational studies. The overall tone noise was computed, which was used to help improve empirical models of fan inlet noise for system analysis purposes. Additional insights were gained during the study of the fan installation details and these are shared in this paper. Both overall amplitudes and variations due to design details should be of interest to engineers tasked with designing quiet fan systems for supersonic commercial aircraft. The outlook for high-fidelity simulations of aft fan noise and installation effects will also be discussed.

fans↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Acoustic Simulations of Two-stage Fans Behind a Supersonic Inlet

fan↗

NASA NTRS1993

CFD flowfield simulation of Delta Launch Vehicles in a power-on configuration

This paper summarizes recent work at McDonnell Douglas Aerospace (MDA) to develop and validate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of under expanded rocket plume external flowfields for multibody expendable launch vehicles (ELVs). Multi engine reacting gas flowfield predictions of ELV base pressures are needed to define vehicle base drag and base heating rates for sizing external nozzle and base region insulation thicknesses. Previous ELV design programs used expensive multibody power-on wind tunnel tests that employed chamber/nozzle injected high pressure cold or hot-air. Base heating and pressure measurements were belatedly made during the first flights of past ELV's to correct estimates from semi-empirical engineering models or scale model tests. Presently, CFD methods for use in ELV design are being jointly developed at the Space Transportation Division (MDA-STD) and New Aircraft Missiles Division (MDA-NAMD). An explicit three dimensional, zonal, finite-volume, full Navier-Stokes (FNS) solver with finite rate hydrocarbon/air and aluminum combustion kinetics was developed to accurately compute ELV power-on flowfields. Mississippi State University's GENIE++ general purpose interactive grid generation code was chosen to create zonal, finite volume viscous grids. Axisymmetric, time dependent, turbulent CFD simulations of a Delta DSV-2A vehicle with a MB-3 liquid main engine burning RJ-1/LOX were first completed. Hydrocarbon chemical kinetics and a k-epsilon turbulence model were employed and predictions were validated with flight measurements of base pressure and temperature. Zonal internal/external grids were created for a Delta DSV-2C vehicle with a MB-3 and three Castor-1 solid motors burning and a Delta-2 with an RS-27 main engine (LOX/RP-1) and 9 GEM's attached/6 burning. Cold air, time dependent FNS calculations were performed for DSV-2C during 1992. Single phase simulations that employ finite rate hydrocarbon and aluminum (solid fuel) combustion chemistry are currently in progress. Reliable and efficient Eulerian algorithms are needed to model two phase (solid-gas) momentum and energy transfer mechanisms for solid motor fuel combustion products.

Pavish, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity analysis towards trace-uranium detection with γ-γ coincidence NAA

An improved approach for detection of trace amounts of 238 U by means of neutron activation analysis (NAA) is presented. The analysis enhancement is obtained by utilizing γ-γ coincidence counting. An empirical method for evaluating the sensitivity gain in the presence of a large source-related background is presented. A comparison of detection limits is made between two counting schemes; namely, counting single gammas using one HPGe detector versus counting coincident gammas using two HPGe detectors placed face-to-face. Furthermore, a data-validated radiation transport model, created in GEANT4 for a single HPGe detector, is extended to handle the two detector setup. In this counting scheme, a 238 U-detection sensitivity enhancement of about a factor of 8 is predicted for a sample of Saint-Gobain G3 Sapphire when compared to the simpler singles counting approach.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2003

An Interpolation Method for Obtaining Thermodynamic Properties Near Saturated Liquid and Saturated Vapor Lines

The availability and proper utilization of fluid properties is of fundamental importance in the process of mathematical modeling of propulsion systems. Real fluid properties provide the bridge between the realm of pure analytiis and empirical reality. The two most common approaches used to formulate thermodynamic properties of pure substances are fundamental (or characteristic) equations of state (Helmholtz and Gibbs functions) and a piecemeal approach that is described, for example, in Adebiyi and Russell (1992). This paper neither presents a different method to formulate thermodynamic properties of pure substances nor validates the aforementioned approaches. Rather its purpose is to present a method to be used to facilitate the accurate interpretation of fluid thermodynamic property data generated by existing property packages. There are two parts to this paper. The first part of the paper shows how efficient and usable property tables were generated, with the minimum number of data points, using an aerospace industry standard property package (based on fundamental equations of state approach). The second part describes an innovative interpolation technique that has been developed to properly obtain thermodynamic properties near the saturated liquid and saturated vapor lines.

Nguyen, Huy H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Improved Algorithm for Retrieving Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation from Satellite Measurements

Zhou and Cess [2001] developed an algorithm for retrieving surface downwelling longwave radiation (SDLW) based upon detailed studies using radiative transfer model calculations and surface radiometric measurements. Their algorithm linked clear sky SDLW with surface upwelling longwave flux and column precipitable water vapor. For cloudy sky cases, they used cloud liquid water path as an additional parameter to account for the effects of clouds. Despite the simplicity of their algorithm, it performed very well for most geographical regions except for those regions where the atmospheric conditions near the surface tend to be extremely cold and dry. Systematic errors were also found for scenes that were covered with ice clouds. An improved version of the algorithm prevents the large errors in the SDLW at low water vapor amounts by taking into account that under such conditions the SDLW and water vapor amount are nearly linear in their relationship. The new algorithm also utilizes cloud fraction and cloud liquid and ice water paths available from the Cloud and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) single scanner footprint (SSF) product to separately compute the clear and cloudy portions of the fluxes. The new algorithm has been validated against surface measurements at 29 stations around the globe for Terra and Aqua satellites. The results show significant improvement over the original version. The revised Zhou-Cess algorithm is also slightly better or comparable to more sophisticated algorithms currently implemented in the CERES processing and will be incorporated as one of the CERES empirical surface radiation algorithms.

Zhou, Yaping↗

NASA NTRS2018

Validation of Slosh Modeling Approach Using STAR-CCM+

Without an adequate understanding of propellant slosh, the spacecraft attitude control system may be inadequate to control the spacecraft or there may be an unexpected loss of science observation time due to higher slosh settling times. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to model propellant slosh. STAR-CCM+ is a commercially available CFD code. This paper presents a comparison between STAR-CCM+ liquid slosh modeling results and experimental, empirically, and analytically derived results. The geometries examined are a bare right cylinder tank and a right cylinder

Benson, David↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗