Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “distributed inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Distribution of the Galactic Center Excess’s Sources

The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) may yet herald the discovery of annihilating dark matter. Weighing against that conclusion are analyses showing evidence for dim point sources within the spatial structure of the emission. Because of technical limitations these analyses are purely spatial with all spectral information that could disentangle the excess from astrophysical backgrounds discarded. Here, we demonstrate that a neural network simulation-based inference approach can jointly analyze the spatial and spectra data. The addition is profound: energy information drives the putative point sources to be significantly dimmer, indicating either the GCE is truly diffuse in nature or made of an exceptionally large number of sources. Quantitatively, for our best fit background model, the excess is essentially consistent with Poisson emission as predicted by dark matter. If due to point sources, our median prediction is O(10^{5}) sources, or more than 35 000 at 90% confidence-both orders of magnitude larger than the hundreds preferred by earlier point-source analyses of the GCE, although variations allowed by background systematics could reduce the required number of sources by roughly an order of magnitude.

List, Florian↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark Matter halo parameters from overheated exoplanets via Bayesian hierarchical inference

Dark Matter (DM) can become captured, deposit annihilation energy, and hence increase the heat flow in exoplanets and brown dwarfs. Detecting such a DM-induced heating in a population of exoplanets in the inner kpc of the Milky Way thus provides potential sensitivity to the galactic DM halo parameters. We develop a Bayesian Hierarchical Model to investigate the feasibility of DM discovery with exoplanets and examine future prospects to recover the spatial distribution of DM in the Milky Way. We reconstruct from mock exoplanet datasets observable parameters such as exoplanet age, temperature, mass, and location, together with DM halo parameters, for representative choices of measurement uncertainty and the number of exoplanets detected. We find that detection of O(100) exoplanets in the inner Galaxy can yield quantitative information on the galactic DM density profile, under the assumption of 10% measurement uncertainty. Even as few as O(10) exoplanets can deliver meaningful sensitivities if the DM density and inner slope are sufficiently large.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

FlowPM: Distributed TensorFlow implementation of the FastPM cosmological N-body solver

Here, we present FlowPM, a Particle-Mesh (PM) cosmological N-body code implemented in Mesh-TensorFlow for GPU-accelerated, distributed, and differentiable simulations. We implement and validate the accuracy of a novel multi-grid scheme based on multiresolution pyramids to compute large-scale forces efficiently on distributed platforms. We explore the scaling of the simulation on large-scale supercomputers and compare it with corresponding Python based PM code, finding on an average 10x speed-up in terms of wallclock time. We also demonstrate how this novel tool can be used for efficiently solving large scale cosmological inference problems, in particular reconstruction of cosmological fields in a forward model Bayesian framework with hybrid PM and neural network forward model. We provide skeleton code for these examples and the entire code is publicly available at https://github.com/modichirag/flowpm[Formula presented].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of hydrogen fueling, recycling, and confinement at Wendelstein 7-X via a single-reservoir particle balance

Abstract A single-reservoir particle balance for the main plasma species hydrogen has been established for W7-X. This has enabled the quantitative characterization of the particle sources in the standard island divertor configuration for the first time. Findings from attached scenarios with two different island sizes with a boronized wall and turbo molecular pumping are presented. Fueling efficiencies, particle flows and source locations were measured and used to infer the total particle confinement time τ p . Perturbative gas injection experiments served to measure the effective particle confinement time τ p * . Combining both confinement times provides access to the global recycling coefficient R ¯ . Hydrogen particle inventories have been addressed and the knowledge of particle sources and sinks reveals the core fueling distribution and provides insight into the capability of the magnetic islands to control exhaust features. Measurements of hydrogen fueling efficiencies were sensitive to the precise fueling location and measured between 12% and 31% with the recycling fueling at the strike line modeled at only 6%, due to much higher densities. 15% of the total 5.2 × 10 22 a/s recycling flow ionizes far away from the recycling surfaces in the main chamber. It was shown that 60% of recycled particles ionize above the horizontal and 18% above the vertical divertor target, while the remainder of the recycling flow ionizes above the baffle (7%). Combining these source terms with their individual fueling efficiencies resolves the core fueling distribution. Due to the higher fueling efficiency in the main chamber, up to 51% of the total 5.1 × 10 21 s −1 core fueling particles are entering the confined plasma from the main chamber. τ p values in the range of 260 ms were extracted for these discharges. Together with τ p , the global recycling coefficient R ¯ was resolved for every τ p * measurement and a typical value close to unity was obtained. An increase of the island size, resulted in no change of τ p , but doubled τ p * , indicating the feasibility of the control coils as an actuator to control exhaust features without affecting core confinement properties.

recycling↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Analysis of Postharvest Fungal Pathogens Reveals Temporal–Spatial and Host–Pathogen Associations with Fungicide Resistance-Related Mutations

Fungicides are the primary tools to control a wide range of postharvest fungal pathogens. Fungicide resistance is a widespread problem that has reduced the efficacy of fungicides. Resistance to FRAC-1 (Fungicide Resistance Action Committee-1) chemistries is associated with mutations in amino acid position 198 in the β-tubulin gene. In our study, we conducted a meta-analysis of β-tubulin sequences to infer temporal, spatial, plant host, and pathogen genus patterns of fungicide resistance in postharvest fungal pathogens. In total, data were acquired from 2,647 specimens from 12 genera of fungal phytopathogens residing in 53 countries on >200 hosts collected between 1926 and 2020. The specimens containing a position 198 mutation were globally distributed in a variety of pathosystems. Analyses showed that there are associations among the mutation and the year an isolate was collected, the pathogen genus, the pathogen host, and the collection region. Interestingly, fungicide-resistant β-tubulin genotypes have been in a decline since their peak between 2005 and 2009. FRAC-1 fungicide usage data followed a similar pattern in that applications have been in a decline since their peak between 1997 and 2003. The data show that, with the reduction of selection pressure, FRAC-1 fungicide resistance in fungal populations will decline within 5 to 10 years. Based on this line of evidence, we contend that a β-tubulin position 198 mutation has uncharacterized fitness cost(s) on fungi in nature. The compiled dataset can inform end users on the regions and hosts that are most prone to contain resistant pathogens and assist decisions concerning fungicide resistance management strategies.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian analysis of (3 +1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics with the RHIC beam energy scan data

This work presents a Bayesian inference study for relativistic heavy-ion collisions in the beam energy scan program at the BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. The theoretical model simulates event-by-event (3+1)-dimensional [(3+1)⁢D] collision dynamics using hydrodynamics and hadronic transport theory. We analyze the model's 20-dimensional posterior distributions obtained using three model emulators with different accuracy and demonstrate the essential role of training an accurate model emulator in the Bayesian analysis. Our analysis provides robust constraints on the quark-gluon plasma's transport properties and various aspects of (3+1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics. By running full model simulations with 100 parameter sets sampled from the posterior distribution, we make predictions for p T -differential observables and estimate their systematic theory uncertainty. Here, a sensitivity analysis is performed to elucidate how individual experimental observables respond to different model parameters, providing useful physics insights into the phenomenological model for heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Striped Jets in Post–Neutron Star Merger Systems

Abstract Models invoking magnetic reconnection as the particle acceleration mechanism within relativistic jets often adopt a gradual energy dissipation profile within the jet. However, such a profile has yet to be reproduced in first-principles simulations. Here we perform a suite of 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of post–neutron star merger disks with an initially purely toroidal magnetic field. We explore the variations in both the microphysics (e.g., nuclear recombination, neutrino emission) and system parameters (e.g, disk mass). In all of our simulations, we find the formation of magnetically striped jets. The stripes result from the reversals in the poloidal magnetic flux polarity generated in the accretion disk. The simulations display large variations in the distributions of stripe duration, τ , and power, 〈 P Φ 〉. We find that more massive disks produce more powerful stripes, the most powerful of which reaches 〈 P Φ 〉 ∼ 10 49 erg s −1 at τ ∼ 20 ms. The power and variability that result from the magnetic reconnection of the stripes agree with those inferred in short-duration gamma-ray bursts. We find that the dissipation profile of the cumulative energy is roughly a power law in both radial distance, z , and τ , with a slope in the range of ∼1.7–3; more massive disks display larger slopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sequential Kalman tuning of the t -preconditioned Crank-Nicolson algorithm: efficient, adaptive and gradient-free inference for Bayesian inverse problems

Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) has been proposed as an efficient method for the approximate solution of Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models. However, when applied to the Bayesian inverse problem EKI is only exact in the regime of Gaussian target measures and linear forward models. Here, in this work we propose embedding EKI and Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion, its normalizing flow (NF) preconditioned variant, within a Bayesian annealing scheme as part of an adaptive implementation of the t-preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (tpCN) sampler. The tpCN sampler differs from standard pCN in that its proposal is reversible with respect to the multivariate t-distribution. The more flexible tail behaviour allows for better adaptation to sampling from non-Gaussian targets. Within our Sequential Kalman Tuning (SKT) adaptation scheme, EKI is used to initialize and precondition the tpCN sampler for each annealed target. The subsequent tpCN iterations ensure particles are correctly distributed according to each annealed target, avoiding the accumulation of errors that would otherwise impact EKI. We demonstrate the performance of SKT for tpCN on three challenging numerical benchmarks, showing significant improvements in the rate of convergence compared to adaptation within standard SMC with importance weighted resampling at each temperature level, and compared to similar adaptive implementations of standard pCN. The SKT scheme applied to tpCN offers an efficient, practical solution for solving the Bayesian inverse problem when gradients of the forward model are not available. Code implementing the SKT schemes for tpCN is available at https://github.com/RichardGrumitt/KalmanMC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ion Chromatography and Combustion Ion Chromatography Analysis of Fuel Cell Effluent Water During Open Circuit Voltage

Open circuit voltage tests were conducted on sixteen 3M Ionomer and eight Nafion™ NR211 membranes. Lifetime distributions were determined, and ion chromatography (IC) techniques were used to measure fluoride, sulfate, trifluoro acetate, and oxalate ions. Combustion Ion Chromatography (CIC) was used to determine the total organic fluoride (TOF) associated with water soluble membrane degradation fragments. The ratio of these products relative to the fluoride release rates were used to infer the likely degradation mechanism for each membrane. Peroxide attack at the sulfonic acid side chain was determined to be the least relevant reaction pathway while the long-proposed polymer chain end unzipping appears to be the dominant mechanism. Abstraction of the tertiary fluorine in the NR211 backbone and side chain is evident by organic fluoride release rates higher than can be explained by unzipping alone.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Importance Sampling for Bayesian Model Calibration with Spatio-Temporal Data

This paper addresses two challenges in Bayesian calibration: 1) computational speed of existing sampling algorithms, and 2) calibration with spatio-temporal responses. The commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches require many sequential model evaluations making the computational expense prohibitive. This paper proposes an efficient sampling algorithm: iterative importance sampling with genetic algorithm (IISGA). While iterative importance sampling enables computational efficiency, the genetic algorithm enables robustness by preventing sample degeneration and avoids getting stuck in multimodal search spaces. An inflated likelihood further enables robustness in high-dimensional parameter spaces by enlarging the target distribution. Spatio-temporal data complicate both surrogate modeling, which is necessary for expensive computational models, and the likelihood estimation. In this work, singular value decomposition is investigated for reducing the high-dimensional field data to a lower-dimensional space prior to Bayesian calibration. Then the likelihood is formulated and Bayesian inference is performed in the lower-dimension, latent space. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate IISGA relative to existing sampling methods, and then IISGA is employed to calibrate a thermal battery model with 26 uncertain calibration parameters and spatio-temporal response data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous inference of plate boundary stresses and mantle rheology using adjoints: large-scale 2-D models

SUMMARY Plate motions are a primary surface constraint on plate and mantle dynamics and rheology, plate boundary stresses and the occurrence of great earthquakes. Within an optimization method, we use plate motion data to better constrain uncertain mantle parameters. For the optimization problem characterizing the maximum a posteriori rheological parameters we derive gradients using adjoints and expressions to approximate the posterior distributions for stresses within plate boundaries. We apply these methods to a 2-D cross section from the western to eastern Pacific, with temperature distributions and fault zone geometries developed primarily from seismic and plate motion data. We find that the best-fitting stress exponent, n, is about 2.8 and the yield stress about 100 MPa or less. The normal stress on the interplate fault zones is about 100 MPa and the shear stresses about 10 MPa or less.

Rudi, Johann (ORCID:0000000265639265)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

AWB-GCN: A Graph Convolutional Network Accelerator with Runtime Workload Rebalancing

The recent development of deep learning has been mostly focusing on Euclidean data, such as images, videos, audios, etc. However, most real-world information and relation are often expressed as graphs. To efficiently learn from graph data, graph convolutional networks (GCNs) emerge as a promising approach, showing advantages in several practical applications such as social network analysis, knowledge discovery, 3D modeling, motion capturing, etc. Real-world graphs are usually extremely large and imbalanced, posting significant performance demand and design challenges on the hardware dedicated for GCN inference. In this paper, we propose an architecture design called UW-GCN to accelerate graph convolutional network inference. To tackle the major performance bottleneck from workload imbalance, we propose dynamic neighborhood stealing and remote chunk shuffling techniques, relying on hardware flexibility to achieve hardware auto-tuning under negligible area or delay overhead. Specifically, UW-GCN is able to smartly profile the sparse graph pattern while continuously adjusting the workload distribution via routing reconfiguration among parallel processing elements (PEs). The ideal configuration is then reused in the remaining iterations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first accelerator design particularly for GCN and the first work relying on hardware auto-tuning, which is normally based on software, to achieve near-optimal workload balance in processing sparse structures.

Geng, Tong↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disintegration of Long-period Comet C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS). I. Hubble Space Telescope Observations

The near-Sun comet C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS) is the first member of a long-period comet group observed to disintegrate well before perihelion. Here we present our investigation into this disintegration event using images obtained in a three-day Hubble Space Telescope campaign. We identify two fragment clusters produced by the initial disintegration event, corresponding to fragments C/2019 Y4-A and C/2019 Y4-B identified in ground-based data. These two clusters started with similar integrated brightness but exhibit different evolutionary behavior. C/2019 Y4-A was much shorter-lived compared to C/2019 Y4-B and showed signs of significant mass loss and changes in size distribution throughout the three-day campaign. The cause of the initial fragmentation is undetermined by the limited evidence but crudely compatible with either the spin-up disruption of the nucleus or runaway sublimation of subsurface supervolatile ices, either of which would lead to the release of a large amount of gas as inferred from the significant bluing of the comet observed shortly before its disintegration. Gas can only be produced by the sublimation of volatile ices, which must have survived at least one perihelion passage at a perihelion distance of q = 0.25 au. We speculate that Comet ATLAS is derived from the ice-rich interior of a nonuniform, kilometer-wide progenitor that split during its previous perihelion. This suggests that comets down to a few kilometers in diameter can still possess complex, nonuniform interiors that can protect ices against intense solar heating.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

Ground heat flux (G 0 ) is a key component of the land-surface energy balance of high-latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G 0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G 0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G 0 data (measured or modeled) for snow-free period as a reference. When observed G 0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G 0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Diagnosing low-mode (ℓ < 6) and mid-mode (6 ≤ ℓ ≤ 60) asymmetries in the post-stagnation phase of laser-direct-drive deuterium–tritium cryogenic implosions on OMEGA

Low- and mid-mode perturbations are possible candidates for performance limitations in cryogenic direct-drive implosions on the OMEGA laser at the Laboratory of Laser Energetics. Simulations with a 3D hydrocode demonstrated that hotspot imagers do not show evidence of the shell breakup in the dense fuel. However, these same simulations revealed that the low- and mid-mode perturbations in the dense fuel could be diagnosed more easily in the post-stagnation phase of the implosion by analyzing the peak in the x-ray emission limb at the coronal–fuel interface than before or at the stagnation phase. In experiments, the asymmetries are inferred from gated images of the x-ray emission of the implosion by using a 16-pinhole array imager filtered to record x-ray energies >800 eV and an x-ray framing camera with 40-ps time integration and 20-μm spatial resolution. Furthermore, a modal analysis is applied to the spatial distribution of the x-ray emission from deuterium and tritium cryogenic implosions on OMEGA recorded after the bang time to diagnose the low- and mid-mode asymmetries, and to study the effect that the beam-to-target ratio (Rb/Rt) has on the shell integrity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗