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DOE OSTI2025

2025 Review and Revision of Federal Guidance Report 15

Federal Guidance Report No. 15 (FGR 15), External Exposure to Radionuclides in Air, Water and Soil, published in 2019 and referred to below as FGR 2019, provides age-specific effective dose rate coefficients for reference persons externally exposed to each of 1252 radionuclides homogenously distributed in environmental media. Soon after completion of FGR 2019, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) published a similar report (ICRP Publication 144, 2020) addressing the same radionuclides and many of the external exposure scenarios addressed in FGR 2019. In 2023 Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) published a review of dose coefficients in FGR 2019, concluding that “The external effective dose from beta radiation is not appropriately accounted for in FGR 15 for both low- and high-energy beta emitters in air, in soil, and on soil surfaces.” That conclusion was based largely on comparisons of dose coefficients in FGR 2019 with values in ICRP Publication 144 but also on consideration of some unexpected patterns of equivalent dose rate coefficients across tissues and of effective dose rate coefficients across different soil depths, for a selected set of low-energy beta emitters. In response to the ANL report, the Center for Radiation Protection Knowledge (CRPK) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed an extensive reexamination of the methods and published values of FGR 2019. CRPK found that coding errors had resulted in inaccurate estimates, primarily overestimates, in many of the dose coefficients tabulated in FGR 2019 but that many of the differences between results in FGR 2019 and ICRP Publication 144 could be traced to differences in methodology. CRPK has corrected all errors in FGR 2019 associated with the coding errors and has taken the opportunity to improve a major portion of the remaining dose coefficients in FGR 2019, primarily through additional Monte Carlo calculations resulting in improved statistics for tissue equivalent dose rate coefficients for exposure to monoenergetic sources. This has eliminated the need for extrapolation of results from high and medium energies to low energies, as was done in FGR 2019. In addition, inconsistencies in the methodology identified in the review, such as computational representation of the adult female, were eliminated. The revised effective dose rate coefficients are consistent with values in ICRP Publication 144 except for differences in values clearly arising from differences in methodology; and differences in values for a relatively small set of very low-energy radionuclides with highly uncertain dose coefficients regardless of methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale modeling of packed-bed microwave reactors and estimation of intrinsic materials' permittivity

Modeling of packed-bed microwave reactors relies on an accurate representation of particle size, shape, and distribution within the bed, as well as the particles' dielectric properties. The measured permittivity of microwave susceptors (powders or structured materials) depends on the geometric features of the particles and the porosity of the bed, as well as the specific form factor of a structured material. These are effective properties and cannot be used to analyze other reactor configurations unless the geometric effects are removed. Therefore, we introduce a methodology for extracting the intrinsic particle permittivity from experimentally measured effective permittivity by combining cavity-based measurements with multiscale simulations and machine learning. Further, we develop the first multiscale model of packed-bed microwave reactors that incorporate particle effects (geometric features, random packing, and particle contact). This approach bridges macroscopic observables with mesoscopic physics, enabling analysis of local hotspots, arcing, and contact effects that control reactor performance. Using polymer-based spherical activated carbon (PBSAC) and silicon carbide (SiC) as examples, we demonstrate that the inferred particle permittivity is consistent with independent experimental heating profiles we collect from microwave reactors without adjustable parameters. Finally, this methodology establishes a foundation for predictive, multiscale design of microwave packed-bed reactors that explicitly accounts for particle-scale effects, enabling the estimation of intrinsic permittivity for the first time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data associated with “Different methods of estimating riverbed sediment grain size diverge at the basin scale ” (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “Different methods of estimating riverbed sediment grain size diverge at the basin scale” published in Frontiers in Earth Science (Regier et al., 2025). The distribution of sediment grain size in streams and rivers is often quantified by the median grain size (d50), a key metric for understanding and predicting hydrologic and biogeochemical function of streams and rivers. Manual methods to measure d50 are time-consuming and ignore larger grains, while model-based methods to estimate d50 often over-generalize basin characteristics, and therefore cannot accurately represent site-scale heterogeneity. Here, we apply a machine learning-enabled photogrammetry methodology (You Only Look Once, or YOLO) for estimating d50 for grains > 2 mm based on images collected from streams and rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin (YRB). To understand how such methods may help bridge the gaps in resolution and accuracy between manual and catchment characteristics model-based d50 estimates, we compared YOLO d50 values to manual and model-based estimates across the YRB. We found distinct differences among methods for d50 averages and variability, and relationships between d50 estimates and basin characteristics. Source images can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1892052. This data package was originally published in May 2023. It was updated August 2025 (v2; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. In addition to the readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) and subfolders containing data, figures, and scripts. The data folder contains datasets used for the analyses in the manuscript in image, text-delimited or geospatially-referenced formats. The figures folder contains the figures from the manuscript in different formats. The scripts folder contains all of the scripts used to complete the analyses in the manuscript. All files are .csv, .rds, .dbf, .prj, .shp, .shx, .jpg, .png, .R, .Rproj, or .pdf. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Opportunities in multiscale modeling of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as Zika, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever virus, represent a growing public health concern due to their widespread distribution and the severe diseases they cause. These viruses are difficult to control as climate change and urbanization help mosquitoes expand into new areas, increasing the risk of outbreaks. Mathematical models play a key role in understanding their spread, providing insights at every level—from how the virus multiplies inside cells to how it circulates through entire populations. This review examines various approaches used in modeling arboviruses, including microscale models that focus on cellular and molecular dynamics, mesoscale models that address within-host processes, and macroscale models that capture population-level transmission. We briefly summarize the methodology used for models at each scale, which primarily consists of sets of differential equations with parameters that represent physical rates of change for different subprocesses. We particularly highlight how temperature affects virus transmission, which is key to understanding the impact of climate change. We also show how multiscale models can connect viral replication, immune response, and the spread of infection at a larger scale. This is essential for developing better vaccines and treatments, evaluating disease control measures, predicting the impact of climate change, and improving public health responses to outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K2O, LaBr3, KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga2O3, NaNO2, Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated assuming 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradioactive chemical

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradradioactive chemicals modeled. And finally, the calculations assume all 12 tests will be performed at the same place at both locations, and all 11 radioactive material types will be used for each test. This is conservative because it is anticipated that no more than two material types will be used per test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radiative Heat Transport and Optical Characterization of High Temperature Molten Salts

The goal of this project was to advance the field of molten fluoride radiative heat transfer (RHT), through optical property measurements, heat transfer loop construction and operation, and computational fluid dynamics simulations. The following outcomes have been accomplished. A comprehensive review has been conducted to compile all available RHT-relevant optical absorption data for molten fluorides. The various measurement methods have also been compiled and critiqued. Thermal emission measurement methods have been refined and documented. A unique thermal emissivity measurement facility has been constructed and used to measure the emissivity of flowing FLiBe-exposed SS316 samples. A slight increase has been observed in the emissivity compared to unexposed SS316. A dual reflectance-emission setup was partially demonstrated for the purpose of molten fluoride absorption measurement. Preliminary infrared edge data for FLiNaK was obtained. A visible near-infrared (NIR) measurement setup has been constructed and will be used to measure absorption of corrosion products in FLiBe. A new multi-band thermal radiation method using blackbody-weighted spectral bands for the absorption-coefficient was deployed to investigate the thermal performance of the UW Natural Circulation FLiBe Loop under various power levels and operating conditions. The results showed an increasing and decreasing trend in the overall heat transfer with optical thickness with a maximum at optical thickness τ D ≈Ο(1). A forced convection FLiBe loop was constructed for the purpose of studying corrosion and thermal hydraulic phenomena. A vertical cantilever pump is used to achieve up to 5 gpm and 5 m/s flow velocity in hot and cold test sections. A methodology has been established for modeling radiative heat transfer (RHT) in molten salt coolants for the purpose of quantifying the contribution of thermal radiation in conditions relevant to FHR or MSR systems. The comparison between the results obtained for forced and mixed convection showed that in the studied ranges of optical thickness, the maximum effect of RHT on overall heat transfer was 60% improvement observed at z/D = 250 for forced convection; whereas for mixed convection, that value was higher at 170% observed at z/D = 30. The highest effect of RHT on the overall energy distribution was observed at τ D ≈3.4. Negligible effect (<20%) was observed above τ D =18 and below τ D ≈0.002. A CFD code-to-code comparison was conducted using COMSOL Multiphysics at UW-Madison and STAR-CCM at MIT, for a forced and mixed convection laminar flow for a grey medium in a vertical heated using both COMSOL Multiphysics at UW-Madison and STAR-CCM at MIT. The relative error was the largest at τ D =40 for the radiative heat flux, bulk temperature, and Nusselt number. On the other hand, the relative error was the least at τ D =0.002 for the conductive heat flux, bulk temperature, and Nusselt number.

Anderson, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiphysics Demonstration of Temperature-Driven Assembly Bowing in SFRs using MOOSE-Based Codes

Core bowing is an important passive safety mechanism in liquid metal cooled fast reactors. When the core restraint system is properly designed, temperature and flux gradients influence assemblies in the core to bow into less reactive configurations during accident scenarios, resulting in negative reactivity feedback. Prediction of core bowing involves complex interplay of radiation transport, impacts of fluid flow and heat transfer on duct temperature, and mechanical responses to the induced temperature and flux gradients. Under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program [1], an integrated multiphysics approach is being developed to model the core bowing phenomena in liquid metal-cooled fast reactors with the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) [2]. In this methodology, the MOOSE-based reactor physics code Griffin [3] will solve the neutron transport equation and determine the power distribution. With the detailed power distribution from Griffin, the subchannel analysis codes MOOSE-Subchannel [4] and Pronghorn [5] are utilized to calculate the assembly temperature distribution. MOOSE’s Solid Mechanics [6] and Contact [7] Modules are leveraged to calculate the thermal expansion and duct bowing displacement with the duct wall temperature from thermal hydraulics calculation. In this work, an initial one-way coupling demonstration of the integrated multiphysics approach has been performed on a seven-assembly problem based on the sodium-cooled fast reactor ABR-1000 design [8]. The neutronics calculation with Griffin is not yet involved in the current simulation. MOOSE-Subchannel and Pronghorn evaluate fluid and solid temperature based on a fixed power distribution. In addition, one-way coupling is utilized in this coupled calculation, via Pronghorn passing the duct temperature data to the MOOSE Solid Mechanics calculation. An assessment of the Solid Mechanics module was performed in parallel to verify duct bowing behavior with duct-to-duct contact phenomenon [9]. The displacement from MOOSE Solid Mechanics is not yet transferred back and utilized in the Pronghorn and MOOSE-Subchannel calculation. This model will be available on the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB) repository [10]. Future stages of this work will involve solving problems of increasing complexity as well as adding more physics (e.g. reactor physics) to the integrated workflow to reach the end goal of modeling the core bowing phenomenon with an integrated multiphysics workflow.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics consistent machine learning framework for inverse modeling with applications to ICF capsule implosions

In high energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF), predictive modeling is complicated by uncertainty in parameters that characterize various aspects of the modeled system, such as those characterizing material properties, equation of state (EOS), opacities, and initial conditions. Typically, however, these parameters are not directly observable. What is observed instead is a time sequence of radiographic projections using X-rays. In this work, we define a set of sparse hydrodynamic features derived from the outgoing shock profile and outer material edge, which can be obtained from radiographic measurements, to directly infer such parameters. Our machine learning (ML)-based methodology involves a pipeline of two architectures, a radiograph-to-features network (R2FNet) and a features-to-parameters network (F2PNet), that are trained independently and later combined to approximate a posterior distribution for the parameters from radiographs. We show that the machine learning architectures are able to accurately infer initial conditions and EOS parameters, and that the estimated parameters can be used in a hydrodynamics code to obtain density fields, shocks, and material interfaces that satisfy thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistency. Finally, we demonstrate that features resulting from an unknown EOS model can be successfully mapped onto parameters of a chosen analytical EOS model, implying that network predictions are learning physics, with a degree of invariance to the underlying choice of EOS model. To the best of our knowledge, our framework is the first demonstration of recovering both thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistent density fields from noisy radiographs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2021

Machine Learning Models to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation

This research uses machine-learned computational analyses to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is from a rodent model exposed to ≤ 15 cGy of individual Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 16O, 28Si, 48Ti, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses performance scores taken before irradiation to predict impairment in Attentional Set-shifting (ATSET) data post-irradiation. Here, the worst performing rats of the control group define the impairment thresholds based on population analyses via cumulative distribution functions, leading to the labeling of impairment for each subject. A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the Simple Discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the Compound Discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing Machine Learning (ML) classifiers such as the Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Networks identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure. The algorithms employ the experimental prescreenperformance scores as multidimensional input features to predict each rodent’s susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. The receiver operating characteristic and the precision-recall curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Feis the ion in question in both SD and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4Hein SD and 28Siin CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. One key finding of our study is that prescreen performance scores can be used to predict the ATSET performance impairments. This result is significant to crewed space missions as it supports the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. Future research can focus on constructing ML ensemble methods to integrate the findings from the methodologies implemented in this study for morerobust predictionsof cognitive decrements due to space radiation exposure.

space radiation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present the use of this framework on a very specific (but generalizable) application, interesting for a more general AI audience. Here, we detail a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing uncertainties involved in gathering teardown data, the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and the need to perform retail price equivalent or indirect cost multiplier adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle classes, market segments, etc. There is also clear interaction between the price of technologies and other specifications present in vehicles. Those results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and application of flat and rigid adjustment factors should be carefully examined. The findings are based on a database developed by Argonne, which includes over 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 with hundreds of vehicle specs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1995

Coupled Monte Carlo Probability Density Function/ SPRAY/CFD Code Developed for Modeling Gas-Turbine Combustor Flows

The success of any solution methodology for studying gas-turbine combustor flows depends a great deal on how well it can model various complex, rate-controlling processes associated with turbulent transport, mixing, chemical kinetics, evaporation and spreading rates of the spray, convective and radiative heat transfer, and other phenomena. These phenomena often strongly interact with each other at disparate time and length scales. In particular, turbulence plays an important role in determining the rates of mass and heat transfer, chemical reactions, and evaporation in many practical combustion devices. Turbulence manifests its influence in a diffusion flame in several forms depending on how turbulence interacts with various flame scales. These forms range from the so-called wrinkled, or stretched, flamelets regime, to the distributed combustion regime. Conventional turbulence closure models have difficulty in treating highly nonlinear reaction rates. A solution procedure based on the joint composition probability density function (PDF) approach holds the promise of modeling various important combustion phenomena relevant to practical combustion devices such as extinction, blowoff limits, and emissions predictions because it can handle the nonlinear chemical reaction rates without any approximation. In this approach, mean and turbulence gas-phase velocity fields are determined from a standard turbulence model; the joint composition field of species and enthalpy are determined from the solution of a modeled PDF transport equation; and a Lagrangian-based dilute spray model is used for the liquid-phase representation with appropriate consideration of the exchanges of mass, momentum, and energy between the two phases. The PDF transport equation is solved by a Monte Carlo method, and existing state-of-the-art numerical representations are used to solve the mean gasphase velocity and turbulence fields together with the liquid-phase equations. The joint composition PDF approach was extended in our previous work to the study of compressible reacting flows. The application of this method to several supersonic diffusion flames associated with scramjet combustor flow fields provided favorable comparisons with the available experimental data. A further extension of this approach to spray flames, three-dimensional computations, and parallel computing was reported in a recent paper. The recently developed PDF/SPRAY/computational fluid dynamics (CFD) module combines the novelty of the joint composition PDF approach with the ability to run on parallel architectures. This algorithm was implemented on the NASA Lewis Research Center's Cray T3D, a massively parallel computer with an aggregate of 64 processor elements. The calculation procedure was applied to predict the flow properties of both open and confined swirl-stabilized spray flames.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

Local Power Impact Experiment Design for a New Fuel Type for use in the Advanced Test Reactor

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and complimentary zero-power ATR Critical (ATRC) reactor, located at Idaho National Labs (INL), are undergoing conversion from Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). Both have a variety of testing locations that can receive large variations in flux due to its unique serpentine design, consisting of five lobes (see Figure 1). Initial criticality and power distribution throughout the core are controlled by core-external outer shim control cylinders (OSCCs). Distinct test loops allow for testing at specific temperatures, pressures, and irradiation conditions. The ATR is one of the key nuclear engineering research and testing facilities within the DOE National Laboratory Complex, and the ATRC supports its operation [1]. Currently, the Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) within the National Nuclear Security Administration of the DOE is working to convert the remaining research reactors, including the ATR, from 93% HEU fuel to 19.75% LEU fuel (LEU) to support non-proliferation [2]. Extensive materials testing at INL and internationally has demonstrated that a high-density uranium molybdenum (U 10Mo) alloy can meet the performance requirements of the remaining high powered research reactors. However, there are many technical challenges to address before the conversion to LEU can be successful, including the accurate characterization of the reactor core physics with LEU fuel. Reactor physics safety evaluations currently use Monte Carlo for the 21st Century (MC21), a continuous-energy Monte Carlo radiation transport code [3]. Existing MC21 models of the ATR and ATRC cores have a validation basis for use in neutronics analyses with HEU fuel. The models are used to support safety analyses that include comparisons to the safety requirements for the reactors. However, the use of the LOWE element in the ATR and ATRC is not currently covered by the current model validation basis. To deploy the new fuel type, extensive computational reactor physics support is necessary to support the use of LOWE in the ATR and ATRC. Therefore, LOWE requires a rigorous validation basis, aligned with that of HEU fuel, that takes advantage of the existing software tools and processes currently used for the ATR and ATRC. The experiment to validate of the MC21 models for determining power, the Power Impact Validation Experiment, will consist of two flux runs in the ATRC, one with fully HEU loading and one with a single LOWE element. Both flux runs will be instrumented with 20 sets of azimuthal fission wires and 3 sets of axial fission wires, as shown in Figure 4. Standard flux run methodology will be used [4]. Power Impact Validation Experiment data will be compared against MC21 calculated data, both for absolute fission rate accuracy and to determine the relative change in fission rates between the two runs. The results of the Power Impact Validation Experiment and subsequent evaluations will provide the validation basis for MC21 for use with LOWE elements. Key features of the Power Impact Validation Experiment include: (1) Two flux runs to allow for LOWE perturbed measurements to be compared to already validated measurements taken from a full core of HEU fuel, (2) Optimization of instrumentation to balance analytical needs with practical considerations (e.g., limited time window to count beta particles from fission products), and (3) Standard ATRC core loading, including both driver positions and flux traps, to minimize cost while remaining representative of typical ATR core loading.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2003

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Review↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

NASA NTRS2016

First-Principles Modeling Of Electromagnetic Scattering By Discrete and Discretely Heterogeneous Random Media

A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell's equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell- Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell-Lorentz equations, we trace the development of the first principles formalism enabling accurate calculations of monochromatic and quasi-monochromatic scattering by static and randomly varying multiparticle groups. We illustrate how this general framework can be coupled with state-of-the-art computer solvers of the Maxwell equations and applied to direct modeling of electromagnetic scattering by representative random multi-particle groups with arbitrary packing densities. This first-principles modeling yields general physical insights unavailable with phenomenological approaches. We discuss how the first-order-scattering approximation, the radiative transfer theory, and the theory of weak localization of electromagnetic waves can be derived as immediate corollaries of the Maxwell equations for very specific and well-defined kinds of particulate medium. These recent developments confirm the mesoscopic origin of the radiative transfer, weak localization, and effective-medium regimes and help evaluate the numerical accuracy of widely used approximate modeling methodologies.

Michael I Mishchenko↗

DOE OSTI2025

VARI3D & PERSENT: Perturbation and Sensitivity Analysis

The nodal diffusion method is one of the most widely used approaches in modern reactor analysis. In the nodal diffusion method, a coarse multi-group set of “homogenized” parameters is constructed such that the complex geometry of a reactor core along with the energy dependence of neutron and gamma ray cross sections in a nuclear reactor are conserved in the simpler geometry. The homogenization is typically done on a fuel assembly level as is the case in the DIF3D code developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The nodal methodology is used primarily to predict fuel cycle behavior of nuclear systems of which there is a substantial amount of validation in the literature. Another use of the nodal method is to obtain reactivity coefficients and kinetics parameters for use in a safety analysis of a given nuclear reactor. While there are many ways to obtain reactivity worth and kinetics parameters, the work presented in this manuscript is unique as it provides the user with the ability to compute reactivity worths, kinetics parameters, and cross section sensitivities with a Cartesian and hexagonal geometry based transport code. This manuscript serves as a single manual for two separate codes: VARI3D and PERSENT. The VARI3D code (VARIational 3D) is based upon the classic finite difference diffusion theory solver available in DIF3D. The PERSENT code (PERturbation and SENitivity for Transport) is based upon the variational nodal method employed in DIF3D termed VARIANT. The VARIANT solver was added to DIF3D in 1995 and has seen continued development and use for the last 18 years. Because VARI3D primarily uses deprecated coding practices, rather than incorporating the perturbation and sensitivity treatments for transport within VARI3D, a new coding development was built using modern Fortran coding. The primary purpose of this manual is to describe the theory behind PERSENT (and by convenience, that of VARI3D) and discuss the input and output of PERSENT along with giving potential users an idea of how to use it. While this manuscript does describe the input and output of VARI3D, the PERSENT code is intended to be the replacement capability of VARI3D as PERSENT can generate nearly identical (if not superior) diffusion theory results. In this manuscript, the relevant aspects of generalized perturbation theory and exact perturbation theory that apply to both VARI3D and PERSENT are covered. The input and output of VARI3D is displayed by excerpting several of the example problems. Similarly, the input and output of PERSENT is displayed along with tips on how best to use the code. Note that the input and output of the inhomogeneous solver wrapped around DIF3D (DIF3D_IFS) is also discussed as it is needed to carry out some of the sensitivities in PERSENT such as reaction rate ratios. This manuscript describes several perturbation and sensitivity problems, and the results computed using PERSENT. From these sections, potential users should find that PERSENT provides not only the typical tables of numbers desired in perturbation and sensitivity analysis work, but also can visually plot the result for a more thorough understanding of the space and energy distribution (Section 5). Overall, PERSENT is observed to produce accurate reactivity worths and sensitivities for the displayed set of test problems and clearly demonstrates the need to have a transport-based sensitivity capability as evident from the thousands of percent errors observed in the 21-group hexagonal fast reactor problem (covered in Section 7). The uncertainty calculation capability is described in Section 3 and demonstrated in Section 7.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA)

With the very recent advent of NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project (ERA), which is dedicated to designing aircraft that will reduce the impact of aviation on the environment, there is a need for research and development of methodologies to minimize fuel burn, emissions, and reduce community noise produced by regional airliners. ERA tackles airframe technology, propulsion technology, and vehicle systems integration to meet performance objectives in the time frame for the aircraft to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 4-6 by the year of 2020 (deemed N+2). The proceeding project that investigated similar goals to ERA was NASA's Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW). SFW focused on conducting research to improve prediction methods and technologies that will produce lower noise, lower emissions, and higher performing subsonic aircraft for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The work provided in this investigation was a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) contract #NNL07AA55C funded by Subsonic Fixed Wing. The project started in 2007 with a specific goal of conducting a large-scale wind tunnel test along with the development of new and improved predictive codes for the advanced powered-lift concepts. Many of the predictive codes were incorporated to refine the wind tunnel model outer mold line design. The large scale wind tunnel test goal was to investigate powered lift technologies and provide an experimental database to validate current and future modeling techniques. Powered-lift concepts investigated were Circulation Control (CC) wing in conjunction with over-the-wing mounted engines to entrain the exhaust to further increase the lift generated by CC technologies alone. The NRA was a five-year effort; during the first year the objective was to select and refine CESTOL concepts and then to complete a preliminary design of a large-scale wind tunnel model for the large scale test. During the second, third, and fourth years the large-scale wind tunnel model design would be completed, manufactured, and calibrated. During the fifth year the large scale wind tunnel test was conducted. This technical memo will describe all phases of the Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA) project and provide a brief summary of the background and modeling efforts involved in the NRA. The conceptual designs considered for this project and the decision process for the selected configuration adapted for a wind tunnel model will be briefly discussed. The internal configuration of AMELIA, and the internal measurements chosen in order to satisfy the requirements of obtaining a database of experimental data to be used for future computational model validations. The external experimental techniques that were employed during the test, along with the large-scale wind tunnel test facility are covered in great detail. Experimental measurements in the database include forces and moments, and surface pressure distributions, local skin friction measurements, boundary and shear layer velocity profiles, far-field acoustic data and noise signatures from turbofan propulsion simulators. Results and discussion of the circulation control performance, over-the-wing mounted engines, and the combined performance are also discussed in great detail.

Subsonic Fixed Wing↗