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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Probabilistic finite elements for transient analysis in nonlinear continua

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM), which is a combination of finite element methods and second-moment analysis, is formulated for linear and nonlinear continua with inhomogeneous random fields. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random field is also discretized. The formulation is simplified by transforming the correlated variables to a set of uncorrelated variables through an eigenvalue orthogonalization. Furthermore, it is shown that a reduced set of the uncorrelated variables is sufficient for the second-moment analysis. Based on the linear formulation of the PFEM, the method is then extended to transient analysis in nonlinear continua. The accuracy and efficiency of the method is demonstrated by application to a one-dimensional, elastic/plastic wave propagation problem. The moments calculated compare favorably with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Also, the procedure is amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer programs.

Liu, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Test particle study of minor ions in solar wind turbulence

We perform a parameter study of the temporal evolution of a test particle distribution function in MHD turbulence. The turbulent fields are calculated using a pseudo-spectral method and periodic boundary conditions on a regular grid of 180(exp 3) points, appropriate for incompressible, homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. Initially, the kinetic and the magnetic energy are equal on the average. Both, deterministic and random initial conditions are used, in the former case with zeros of the magnetic field located at grid points, in the latter case located by interpolation between grid points. The evolution of the minor ion distribution function is studied in detail as these turbulent fields evolve, developing strong current and vorticity sheets. Using the full collisionless equation of motion for the test particles, the efficiency of nonlinear interactions can be studied. The results are compared to theoretical predictions and are then discussed in connection with the observations of the dynamical properties of solar wind minor ions derived from in situ observations.

Zurbuchen, Th.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model-Free Primal-Dual Methods for Network Optimization with Application to Real-Time Optimal Power Flow: Preprint

This paper examines the problem of real-time optimization of networked systems and develops online algorithms that steer the system towards the optimal trajectory without explicit knowledge of the system model. The problem is modeled as a dynamic optimization problem with time-varying performance objectives and engineering constraints. The design of the algorithms leverages the online zero-order primal-dual projected-gradient method. In particular, the primal step that involves the gradient of the objective function (and hence requires networked systems model) is replaced by its zero-order approximation with two function evaluations using a deterministic perturbation signal. The evaluations are performed using the measurements of the system output, hence giving rise to a feedback interconnection, with the optimization algorithm serving as a feedback controller. The paper provides some insights on the stability and tracking properties of this interconnection. Finally, the paper applies this methodology to a real-time optimal power flow problem in power systems, and shows its efficacy on the IEEE 37-node distribution test feeder for reference power tracking and voltage regulation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark Solutions for Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Inhomogeneous Material Statistics

Accurately solving implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) thermal photon transport problems with mixed material cells is important in realistic applications. The production IMC package at LLNL treats mixed material cells arising from ALE remap and hydrodynamics using the same approximate model. The new Imp IMC thermal photon transport package currently under development has both a material interface reconstruction (MIR) algorithm and a Levermore-Pomraning (LP) stochastic medium algorithm for treating mixed material cells. Existing stochastic medium algorithms for treating mixed material cells in IMC lack a complete theoretical basis. The IMC LP algorithm implementation has been demonstrated to reproduce published deterministic LP solutions for the particular case of spatially homogeneous material statistics. Realistic simulations will include spatially inhomogeneous material statistics (material mean chord lengths). In a previous investigation, the LP-model for transport in binary stochastic media in rod geometry was generalized to accommodate spatially varying material chord lengths, i.e., the mixing statistics were allowed to be nonhomogeneous. Analytical solutions were obtained and used to produce a verifi cation suite for the Imp IMC Levermore-Pomraning implementation for different spatial variations of the chord lengths. However, the accuracy of the LP model when the mixing statistics are nonhomogeneous has not been assessed and leaves open the question of whether local accuracy is improved or further degraded when chord lengths are not uniform. This shortcoming is rectifi ed here by developing benchmark analytic solutions for transport in binary Markovian stochastic mixtures in rod geometry with nonhomogeneous mixing statistics, using spatially varying chord lengths considered in the previous investigation based on the LP model. Methods for sampling a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) are first described and used to construct individual realizations of the binary mixtures in rod geometry. Analytic solutions are then obtained for the forward and backward directed fluxes on a given realization, now viewed as a deterministic medium with alternating layers of the two materials with known interface locations. Finally, material averaged scalar fluxes are obtained using these sampling schemes with spatially linear and quadratic chord lengths and used to assess the accuracy of the previously obtained LP-model results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Singular value decomposition of adjoint flux distributions for Monte Carlo variance reduction

Monte Carlo (MC) shielding calculations often use weight windows (WWs) and biased sources formed from a deterministic estimate of the adjoint flux to improve the convergence rate of tallies. This requires a significant amount of computer memory, which can limit the memory available for high-resolution tally output. A new method is proposed for reducing these memory requirements by using singular value decomposition (SVD) in linear or logarithmic space to approximate the adjoint flux. This method’s performance is evaluated using the Shift and Denovo codes for streaming and diffusion base case problems, followed by problems using the Westinghouse AP1000 and the Joint European Torus. The log SVD reduced WW memory requirements by an order of magnitude in all cases without a significant performance penalty. Additionally, the linear SVD reduced biased source memory requirements by an order of magnitude, but further investigation is needed to account for observed limitations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Real-time plasma monitoring framework for advanced plasma control and ML-research in DIII-D

Real-time and adaptive plasma control is crucial for robust tokamak operation, requiring sensitivity and tolerance measurements of the plasma state. This paper presents the implementation of an integrated real-time plasma monitoring framework on the DIII-D tokamak to support advanced control approaches, including machine-learning (ML) methods. The system is built on the SHIELD framework, a high-performance modular architecture that provides a unified pipeline for integrating diverse diagnostics. The framework leverages high-bandwidth digitizers, fast numerical processing, and deterministic, low-latency interconnects to stream high-fidelity data from diagnostics such as electron cyclotron emission (ECE), beam emission spectroscopy (BES), CO interferometers, and a visible tangential divertor camera (TangTV). The system’s validity is demonstrated through direct comparisons of real-time and offline data. Furthermore, we present two key applications of the developed plasma monitoring system with ML-based plasma control strategies, including real-time divertor detachment and active Alfvén Eigenmode control. As a result, this work presents a robust and scalable approach for integrating high-frequency, multidimensional diagnostics into advanced control algorithms for future fusion devices.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗
NASA NTRS1987

NESSUS/expert and NESSUS/FPI in the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) program

The Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures under Stress (NESSUS) is the primary computer code being developed in the NASA Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project. It consists of four modules NESSUS/EXPERT, NESSUS/FPI, NESSUS/PRE and NESSUS/FEM. This presentation concentrates on EXPERT and FPI. To provide an effective interface between NESSUS and the user, an expert system module called NESSUS/EXPERT is being developed. That system uses the CLIPS artificial intelligence code developed to NASA-JSC. The code is compatible with FORTRAN, the standard language for codes in PSAM. The user interacts with the CLIPS inference engine, which is linked to the knowledge database. The perturbation database generated by NESSUS/FEM and managed in EXPERT is used to develop the so-called response or performance model in the random variables. Two independent probabilistic methods are available in PSAM for the computation of the probabilistic structural response. These are the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) method and Monte Carlo simulation. FPI is classified as an advanced reliability method and has been developed over the past ten years by researchers addressing the reliability of civil engineering structures. Monte Carlo is a well-established technique for computing probabilities by conducting a number of deterministic analyses with specified input distributional information.

Burnside, O. H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Intelligent guidance and control for wind shear encounter

The principal objective is to develop methods for assessing the likelihood of wind shear encounter, for deciding what flight path to pursue, and for using the aircraft's full potential for combating wind shear. This study requires the definition of both deterministic and statistical techniques for fusing internal and external information, for making go/no-go decisions, and for generating commands to the aircraft's cockpit displays and autopilot for both manually controlled and automatic flight. The program has begun with the development of a real-time expert system for pilot aiding that is based on the results of the FAA Windshear Training Aids Program. A two-volume manual that presents an overview, pilot guide, training program, and substantiating data provides guidelines for this initial development. The Expert System to Avoid Wind Shear (ESAWS) currently contains over 140 rules and is coded in the LISP programming language for implementation on a Symbolics 3670 LISP machine.

Stengel, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical mechanics models for motion and force planning

The models of statistical mechanics provide an alternative to the methods of classical mechanics more traditionally used in robotics. They have a potential to: improve analysis of object collisions; handle kinematic and dynamic contact interactions within the same frmework; and reduce the need for perfect deterministic world model information. The statistical mechanics models characterize the state of the system as a probability density function (p.d.f.) whose time evolution is governed by a partial differential equation subject to boundary and initial conditions. The boundary conditions when rigid objects collide reflect the conservation of momentum. The models are being developed to embedd in remote semi-autonomous systems with a need to reason and interact with a multiobject environment.

Rodriguez, G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Spacecraft Attitude Maneuver Planning Using Genetic Algorithms

A key enabling technology that leads to greater spacecraft autonomy is the capability to autonomously and optimally slew the spacecraft from and to different attitudes while operating under a number of celestial and dynamic constraints. The task of finding an attitude trajectory that meets all the constraints is a formidable one, in particular for orbiting or fly-by spacecraft where the constraints and initial and final conditions are of time-varying nature. This approach for attitude path planning makes full use of a priori constraint knowledge and is computationally tractable enough to be executed onboard a spacecraft. The approach is based on incorporating the constraints into a cost function and using a Genetic Algorithm to iteratively search for and optimize the solution. This results in a directed random search that explores a large part of the solution space while maintaining the knowledge of good solutions from iteration to iteration. A solution obtained this way may be used as is or as an initial solution to initialize additional deterministic optimization algorithms. A number of representative case examples for time-fixed and time-varying conditions yielded search times that are typically on the order of minutes, thus demonstrating the viability of this method. This approach is applicable to all deep space and planet Earth missions requiring greater spacecraft autonomy, and greatly facilitates navigation and science observation planning.

Kornfeld, Richard P.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Coupling sample paths to the thermodynamic limit in Monte Carlo estimators with applications to gene expression

Many biochemical systems appearing in applications have a multiscale structure so that they converge to piecewise deterministic Markov processes in a thermodynamic limit. The statistics of the piecewise deterministic process can be obtained much more efficiently than those of the exact process. We explore the possibility of coupling sample paths of the exact model to the piecewise deterministic process in order to reduce the variance of their difference. We then apply this coupling to reduce the computational complexity of a Monte Carlo estimator. Motivated by the rigorous results in , we show how this method can be applied to realistic biological models with nontrivial scalings.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diffusion Probabilistic Modeling for Video Generation

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are a promising new class of generative models that mark a milestone in high-quality image generation. This paper showcases their ability to sequentially generate video, surpassing prior methods in perceptual and probabilistic forecasting metrics. We propose an autoregressive, end-to-end optimized video diffusion model inspired by recent advances in neural video compression. The model successively generates future frames by correcting a deterministic next-frame prediction using a stochastic residual generated by an inverse diffusion process. We compare this approach against six baselines on four datasets involving natural and simulation-based videos. We find significant improvements in terms of perceptual quality and probabilistic frame forecasting ability for all datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1975

Operations analysis (study 2.1): Program manual and users guide for the LOVES computer code

Information is provided necessary to use the LOVES Computer Program in its existing state, or to modify the program to include studies not properly handled by the basic model. The Users Guide defines the basic elements assembled together to form the model for servicing satellites in orbit. As the program is a simulation, the method of attack is to disassemble the problem into a sequence of events, each occurring instantaneously and each creating one or more other events in the future. The main driving force of the simulation is the deterministic launch schedule of satellites and the subsequent failure of the various modules which make up the satellites. The LOVES Computer Program uses a random number generator to simulate the failure of module elements and therefore operates over a long span of time typically 10 to 15 years. The sequence of events is varied by making several runs in succession with different random numbers resulting in a Monte Carlo technique to determine statistical parameters of minimum value, average value, and maximum value.

Wray, S. T., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Target Search and Selection for the DI/EPOXI Spacecraft

Upon completion of the Hartley 2 flyby in November 2010, the Deep Impact (DI) spacecraft resided in a solar orbit without possibility for gravity assist with any large body. Conservative estimates of remaining fuel were enough to provide only an 18 m/s impulse on the spacecraft. We present our method and results of our systematic scan of potential small body encounters for DI, and our criteria to narrow the selection to the asteroid 2002 GT as the target flyby body. The mission profile has two deterministic maneuvers to achieve the encounter, the first of which executed on November 25, 2011.

Deep Impact (DI)↗
NASA NTRS2012

Target Search & Selection for the DI/EPOXI Spacecraft

Upon completion of the Hartley 2 flyby in November 2010, the Deep Impact (DI) spacecraft resided in a solar orbit without possibility for gravity assist with any large body. Conservative estimates of remaining fuel were enough to provide only an 18 m/s impulse on the spacecraft. We present our method and results of our systematic scan of potential small body encounters for DI, and our criteria to narrow the selection to the asteroid 2002 GT as the target flyby body. The mission profile has two deterministic maneuvers to achieve the encounter, the first of which executed on November 25, 2011.

Grebow, Daniel J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗