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At least 613 records · Page 34

Advanced data analysis in inertial confinement fusion and high energy density physics

Bayesian analysis enables flexible and rigorous definition of statistical model assumptions with well-characterized propagation of uncertainties and resulting inferences for single-shot, repeated, or even cross-platform data. This approach has a strong history of application to a variety of problems in physical sciences ranging from inference of particle mass from multi-source high-energy particle data to analysis of black-hole characteristics from gravitational wave observations. The recent adoption of Bayesian statistics for analysis and design of high-energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments has provided invaluable gains in expert understanding and experiment performance. In this Review, we discuss the basic theory and practical application of the Bayesian statistics framework. We highlight a variety of studies from the HEDP and ICF literature, demonstrating the power of this technique. Due to the computational complexity of multi-physics models needed to analyze HEDP and ICF experiments, Bayesian inference is often not computationally tractable. Two sections are devoted to a review of statistical approximations, efficient inference algorithms, and data-driven methods, such as deep-learning and dimensionality reduction, which play a significant role in enabling use of the Bayesian framework. We provide additional discussion of various applications of Bayesian and machine learning methods that appear to be sparse in the HEDP and ICF literature constituting possible next steps for the community. We conclude by highlighting community needs, the resolution of which will improve trust in data-driven methods that have proven critical for accelerating the design and discovery cycle in many application areas.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Distinguishing isotropic and anisotropic signals for X-ray total scattering using machine learning

Understanding structure–property relationships is essential for advancing technologies based on thin films. X-ray pair distribution function (PDF) analysis can access relevant atomic structure details spanning local-, mid- and long-range structure. While X-ray PDF has been adapted for thin films on amorphous substrates, measurements on single-crystal substrates are necessary to accurately determine structure origins for some thin film materials, especially those for which the substrate changes the accessible structure and properties. However, when measuring films on single-crystal substrates, high-intensity anisotropic Bragg spots saturate 2D detector images, overshadowing the thin films' isotropic scattering signal. This renders previous data processing methods for films on amorphous substrates unsuitable for films on single-crystal substrates. To address this measurement need, we developed IsoDAT2D, an innovative data processing approach using unsupervised machine learning algorithms. The program combines dimensionality reduction and clustering algorithms to separate thin film and single-crystal substrate X-ray scattering signals. We use SimDAT2D , a program we developed to generate simulated thin film data, to validate IsoDAT2D . Here we also use IsoDAT2D to isolate X-ray total scattering signal from a thin film on a single-crystal substrate. The resulting PDF data are compared with similar data processed using previous methods, especially substrate subtraction for single-crystal and amorphous substrates. PDF data from IsoDAT2D -identified X-ray total scattering data are significantly better than from single-crystal substrate subtraction, but not as reliable as PDF data from amorphous substrate subtraction. With IsoDAT2D , there are new opportunities to expand PDF to a wider variety of thin films, including those on single-crystal substrates, with which new structure–property relationships can be elucidated to enable fundamental understanding and technological advances.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sum-of-Fractions Methodology for Actinides in Water- and Polyethylene-Moderated and -Reflected Systems

Sum-of-fractions is a method intended to make sure a subcritical margin for aqueous solutions and slurries of fissionable isotopes exists. The method indicates that a system is subcritical if the sum of the ratios of the mass of each isotope (in a mixture) to its individual minimum subcritical mass limit is less than or equal to one. Historically, the basis of the sum-of-fractions has been derived from allowances given in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/ American Nuclear Society (ANS)-8.15-1981. However, the allowance was removed in ANSI/ANS-8.15-2014 due to a lack of technical basis. A methodology was developed to assess the validity of using the sum-of-fractions for water- or polyethylene-moderated systems for the following nuclides: 232 U, 233 U, 234 U, 235 U, 237 Np, 236 Pu, 238 Pu, 239 Pu, 240 Pu, 241 Pu, 242 Pu, 241 Am, 242 m Am, 243 Am, 242 Cm, 243 Cm, 244 Cm, 245 Cm, 246 Cm, 247 Cm, 249 Cf, and 251 Cf. The methodology uses available benchmark data for mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu to establish the calculational margin, and a mass limit reduction to establish the margin of subcriticality. Water- or polyethylene-moderated and -reflected mixtures containing the nuclides are evaluated with the code system, SCALE 6.2.4. Including the calculational margin, subcritical mass limits for each nuclide were computed for optimally water- or polyethylene-moderated and fully reflected systems. These masses were used to create nuclide mixtures in which the sum of the mass to subcritical mass limit ratios is one. The various nuclide mixtures were modeled over a range of moderation and demonstrate the keff does not exceed the calculational margin. For additional assurance of subcriticality, a significant mass reduction is applied to each computed minimum critical mass of the nuclides without adequate benchmark data consistent with the method in ANSI/ANS-8.15-2014.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Evaluation of the Sum-of-Fractions Methodology for Water and Polyethylene Moderated Systems

Sum-of-Fractions is a method intended to assure a subcritical margin for aqueous solutions and slurries of fissionable isotopes. The method indicates that a system is subcritical if the sum of the ratios of the mass of each isotope in a mixture to its individual minimum subcritical mass limit is less than or equal to one. The basis of the Sum-of Fractions has historically been derived from allowances given in ANSI/ANS-8.15-1981. However, the allowance was removed in ANSI/ANS-8.15-2014 due to a lack of technical basis. A methodology was developed to assess the validity of using the Sum-of-Fractions for water or polyethylene moderated systems for the following nuclides: 232 U, 233 U, 234 U, 235 U, 237 Np, 236 Pu, 238 Pu, 239 Pu, 240 Pu, 241 Pu, 242 Pu, 241 Am, 242 mAm, 243 Am, 242 Cm, 243 Cm, 244 Cm, 245 Cm, 246 Cm, 247 Cm, 249 Cf, and 251 Cf. The methodology uses available benchmark data for mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu to establish the calculational margin, and a mass limit reduction to establish the margin of subcriticality. Water or polyethylene moderated and reflected mixtures containing the nuclides are evaluated with SCALE 6.2.4. Including the calculational margin, subcritical mass limits for each nuclide were computed for optimally water or polyethylene moderated and fully reflected systems. These masses were used to create nuclide mixtures in which the sum of the mass to subcritical mass limit ratios is one. The various nuclide mixtures were modeled over a range of moderation and demonstrate the k eff does not exceed the calculational margin. For additional assurance of subcriticality, a significant mass reduction is applied to each computed minimum critical mass of the nuclides without adequate benchmark data consistent with the method in ANSI/ANS-8.15-2014.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

A platform to measure isentropes from proton-heated warm dense matter on short pulse laser facilities

We describe the development of an experimental platform that measures the release isentrope of materials heated isochorically to temperatures of a few electron volts, using short-pulse laser-produced protons to heat the sample and long-pulse laser-produced x rays to perform streaked x-ray radiography. The density profiles derived from the radiography data are integrated to generate pressure–density isentropes, independent of prior knowledge of the equation of state of the sample material. In order to understand the sensitivities of isentrope extraction from radiography data, we analyze synthetic radiographs generated by a radiation hydrodynamics code. Noise reduction and high spatial resolution are critical for isentrope reconstruction, as demonstrated by the analysis of a proof-of-principle shot day on the OMEGA-EP facility. In conclusion, the data demonstrate the feasibility of the platform for characterizing isentropes, and we discuss the necessary improvements to enhance precision in differentiating between equation-of-state models.

Equations of state↗

Comparing storm resolving models and climates via unsupervised machine learning

Global storm-resolving models (GSRMs) have gained widespread interest because of the unprecedented detail with which they resolve the global climate. However, it remains difficult to quantify objective differences in how GSRMs resolve complex atmospheric formations. This lack of comprehensive tools for comparing model similarities is a problem in many disparate fields that involve simulation tools for complex data. To address this challenge we develop methods to estimate distributional distances based on both nonlinear dimensionality reduction and vector quantization. Our approach automatically learns physically meaningful notions of similarity from low-dimensional latent data representations that the different models produce. This enables an intercomparison of nine GSRMs based on their high-dimensional simulation data (2D vertical velocity snapshots) and reveals that only six are similar in their representation of atmospheric dynamics. Furthermore, we uncover signatures of the convective response to global warming in a fully unsupervised way. Our study provides a path toward evaluating future high-resolution simulation data more objectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Training for HOM reduction and Emittance Preservation in a TESLA-type Cryomodule at FAST

Low emittance electron beams are of high importance at facilities like the LCLS-II at SLAC. Emittance dilution effects due to off-axis beam transport for a TESLA-type cryomodule (CM) have been shown at the Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology facility. The results showed the correlation between the electron beam-induced cavity high-order modes (HOMs) and submacropulse centroid slewing and oscillation downstream of the CM. Mitigation of emittance dilution can be achieved by reducing the HOM signals and the variances in the submacropulse beam positions downstream of the CM. Here we present a Machine Learning based optimization and model construction for HOM signal level reduction using Neural Networks and Gaussian Processes. To gather training data we performed experiments using single bunch and 50 bunch electron beams with charges up to 125 pC/b. We measured HOM signals of all cavities and beam position with a set of BPMs downstream of the CM. The beam trajectory was changed using V/H125 corrector set located upstream of the CM. The results presented here will inform the LCLS-II injector commissioning and will serve as a prototype for HOM reduction and emittance preservation.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Analysis of Benefits Associated With Projects and Technologies Supported by the Clean Transportation Program: 2023 Executive Summary [Slides]

In 2007, California Assembly Bills (AB) 118 and 109 created the Clean Transportation Program (CTP), which authorized the California Energy Commission (CEC) to fund projects concerning alternative fuels and advanced transportation technologies to help attain the state's climate change policies. AB 109 also required CEC to prepare a report summarizing the benefits resulting from the program. Since then, CEC has collaborated with National Renewable Energy Laboratory to prepare and publish biannual reports summarizing CTP's benefits related to petroleum displacement, greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, air pollution, and more. This report updates the input data, calculation methodologies, and resulting outputs from CEC's 2021 report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Tailored Convolutional Neural Network for Nonlinear Manifold Learning of Computational Physics Data Using Unstructured Spatial Discretizations

In this work, we propose a nonlinear manifold learning technique based on deep convolutional autoencoders that is appropriate for model order reduction of physical systems in complex geometries. Convolutional neural networks have proven to be highly advantageous for compressing data arising from systems demonstrating a slow-decaying Kolmogorov n-width. However, these networks are restricted to data on structured meshes. Unstructured meshes are often required for performing analyses of real systems with complex geometry. Our custom graph convolution operators based on the available differential operators for a given spatial discretization effectively extend the application space of deep convolutional autoencoders to systems with arbitrarily complex geometry that are typically discretized using unstructured meshes. We propose sets of convolution operators based on the spatial derivative operators for the underlying spatial discretization, making the method particularly well suited to data arising from the solution of partial differential equations. We demonstrate the method using examples from heat transfer and fluid mechanics and show better than an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy over linear methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data and Code for Understanding Generative AI Content with Embedding Models

This repository contains code for the experiments in the paper "Understanding Generative AI Content with Embedding Models". Constructing high-quality features is critical to any quantitative data analysis. While feature engineering was historically addressed by carefully hand-crafting data representations based on domain expertise, deep neural networks (DNNs) now offer a radically different approach. DNNs implicitly engineer features by transforming their input data into hidden feature vectors called embeddings. For embedding vectors produced by foundation models -- which are trained to be useful across many contexts -- we demonstrate that simple and well-studied dimensionality-reduction techniques such as Principal Component Analysis uncover inherent heterogeneity in input data concordant with human-understandable explanations. Of the many applications for this framework, we find empirical evidence that there is intrinsic separability between real samples and those generated by artificial intelligence (AI).

Vargas, Max [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

Deciphering Distinct Overpotential-Dependent Pathways for Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Catalyzed by an Iron–Terpyridine Complex

[Fe(tpyPY2Me)] 2+ ([Fe] 2+ ) is a homogeneous electrocatalyst for converting CO 2 into CO featuring low overpotentials of <100 mV, near-unity selectivity, and high activity with turnover frequencies faster than 100 000 s -1 . To identify the origins of its exceptional performance and inform future catalyst design, we report a combined computational and experimental study that establishes two distinct mechanistic pathways for electrochemical CO 2 reduction catalyzed by [Fe] 2+ as a function of applied overpotential. Electrochemical data shows the formation of two catalytic regimes at low (η TOF/2 of 160 mV) and high (η TOF/2 of 590 mV) overpotential plateaus. We propose that at low overpotentials [Fe] 2+ undergoes a two-electron reduction, two-proton-transfer mechanism (electrochemical-electrochemical-chemical-chemical, EECC), where turnover occurs through the dicationic iron complex, [Fe] 2+ . Computational analysis supports the importance of the singlet ground-state electronic structure for CO 2 binding and that the rate-limiting step is the second protonation in this low-overpotential regime. When more negative potentials are applied, an additional electron-transfer event occurs through either a stepwise or proton-coupled electron-transfer (PCET) pathway, enabling catalytic turnover from the monocationic iron complex ([Fe] + ) via an electrochemical-chemical-electrochemical-chemical (ECEC) mechanism. Comparison of experimental kinetic data obtained from variable controlled potential electrolysis (CPE) experiments with direct product detection with calculated rates obtained from the energetic span model supports the PCET pathway as the most likely mechanism. Moreover, we build upon this mechanistic understanding to propose the design of an improved ligand framework that is predicted to stabilize the key transition states identified in our study and explore their electronic structures using an energy decomposition analysis. Finally, taken together, this work highlights the value of synergistic computational/experimental approaches to decipher mechanisms of new electrocatalysts and direct the rational design of improved platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Application of machine learning and artificial intelligence to extend EFIT equilibrium reconstruction

Recent progress in the application of machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to improve the Equilibrium Fitting (EFIT) code equilibrium reconstruction for fusion data analysis applications is presented. A device-independent portable core equilibrium solver capable of computing or reconstructing equilibrium for different tokamaks has been created to facilitate adaptation of ML/AI algorithms. A large EFIT database comprising of DIII-D magnetic, motional Stark effect, and kinetic reconstruction data has been generated for developments of EFIT model-order-reduction (MOR) surrogate models to reconstruct approximate equilibrium solutions. Furthermore, a neural-network MOR surrogate model has been successfully trained and tested using the magnetically reconstructed datasets with encouraging results. Other progress includes developments of a Gaussian process Bayesian framework that can adapt its many hyperparameters to improve processing of experimental input data and a 3D perturbed equilibrium database from toroidal full magnetohydrodynamic linear response modeling using the Magnetohydrodynamic Resistive Spectrum - Feedback (MARS-F) code for developments of 3D-MOR surrogate models.

Gaussian process↗

Efficient Dimension Reduction of Complex Three-dimensional CO2 Saturation using Deep Learning Models

In the domain of deep learning (DL), dimension reduction is crucial for enhancing training efficiency and mitigating overfitting, particularly when managing complex data such as three-dimensional (3D) saturation data. The 3D saturation data in the context of geological carbon storage (GCS) presents unique challenges due to its inherent sparsity and the abrupt transitions at plume boundaries, known as shock fronts. To address the challenges, we proposed a novel DL framework that integrates dimension reduction with advanced 3D reconstruction techniques. Our model leveraged latent variables derived from 2D average saturation data, offering a robust and efficient solution tailored to the intricate dynamics of 3D saturation fields. The proposed framework can extract the critical features of the high-dimensional data while reducing the variable numbers, which is more tractable for DL models and enhances the model robustness and accuracy. Therefore, it provides a novel approach for modeling and analyses in complex geological scenarios, which finds great potential applications in environmental monitoring and energy storage.

Wang, Hongsheng↗

Assessment of the driving factors of CO 2 mitigation costs of household biogas systems in China: A LMDI decomposition with cost analysis model

China has been placing a substantial focus on biogas for reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The operation mode of biogas systems may make the CO 2 reduction target over-optimistic. There is limited research to investigate the influential factors that may be causing the gap between the actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs of biogas systems in China. In this research, by using field survey data of 209 biogas users and 489 non-biogas users from 19 villages in 2015, the gap between actual and theoretical unit CO 2 reduction cost is quantified at approximately 156 USD/t CO 2 . By employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI) model, it is found that both the cost effect (48%) and the reduction effect (52%) contribute to the unit CO 2 reduction cost gap. Furthermore, four influential factors–household labor, accessibility to the energy resource, acceptance of biogas technology, and subsidy–significantly narrow the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs, while the levelized subsidy contributes to widening the gap. On average, biogas systems should be operated for at least four years and the substitution rate should be more than 67% in order to keep the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs under 50%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Feasibility of Transactive Approach for Voltage Management Using Inverters of a PV Plant

This article evaluates the feasibility of a double-auction-based Transactive Energy System (TES) for engaging the reactive power (Var) capability of inverters in a utility-scale pho¬tovoltaic (PV) plant for voltage management in distribution feed¬ers. In this approach, a PV plant owner (seller) provides Var supply curves in terms of price-quantity pairs consider¬ing the inverters’ P-Q capability, efficiency, opportunity cost for real power curtail¬ment, losses, etc. At the same time, the utility (buyer) proposes Var demand curves in price-quantity pairs exhibiting the marginal price of Var. Then, market clearing points are obtained from the intersection points of supply and demand curves which are then used to create Var dispatch sig-nals from the PV plant. To conduct a fea¬sibility study of this approach, an Australian distribution network with a utility-scale PV plant (capacity 3.275 MWP) is modeled in RSCAD and simu¬lated in real-time on MATLAB, RSCAD-RTDS co-simulation platform using real historical data. Consid¬ering a use case, namely, conservation voltage reduction (CVR), the operational feasibility along with cost-benefit analysis is demonstrated in software-in-the-loop (SIL) and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. Another use case, exploring the benefit from tap-change reduction of step-voltage-regulator, is investigated. These studies explore further use cases, e.g., PV hosting capacity, network reconfiguration, etc., to be incorporated in TES for experiencing substantial economic benefits.

Alam, Mollah Rezaul↗

Reducing the computational burden of a microgrid energy management system

As renewable technology advances and decreases in cost, microgrids are becoming an appealing means of distributed generation both for isolated communities and integrated with existing electrical grid systems. Due to their small size, however, microgrids may have financial limitations which preclude them from using commercial software to optimize control of their assets. Open-source optimization solvers are a viable alternative, but increase computation time. This work expands on a rolling horizon optimization framework for economic dispatch within an existing residential microgrid located in Hoover, Alabama. The microgrid has an open-source solver requirement and a need for quick solution time on a rolling horizon as opposed to a day-ahead commitment. We present a method of reducing integer variables by relaxation which completes two goals: reduction in computation time for real-time operations, and reduction in daily operational cost for the microgrid. Seasonal data for load and photovoltaic (PV) power was also collected from the microgrid to facilitate simulation testing. Computation time was successfully reduced using multiple variations of the relaxation method, while obtaining solution quality with operational cost similar to or better than the original model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design and performance assessment of a dual-mode latent thermal storage integrated heat pump across multiple climate zones

The electrification of space cooling and heating systems risks overloading the existing electrical grid during peak hours. Heat pumps integrated with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) offer a promising solution by shifting peak loads to off-peak hours, reducing grid strains. This work presents the design and assessment of a dual-mode HP-TES that uses a single 22°C phase-change material (PCM) as a heat source or sink in heating and cooling modes, respectively. Performance assessment was conducted using Modelica-based transient models, and full-year simulations were conducted across eight US climate zones using typical weather data. Two HP-TES performance metrics: peak energy reduction and recharge energy increases, were defined by comparing HP-TES energy consumption with base HP peak consumptions. Annual heating demand reductions (40–65%) exceeded cooling demand reductions (15–20%) due to the elimination of peak-hour backup heating. Cooling mode recharge energy requirements (0–10%) were reduced in locations with lower summer nighttime temperatures, while heating recharge requirements were lower than the high base-peak energy demand from backup heating. Simplified rapid methods that were 10 7 times faster than annual simulations were developed to predict seasonal cooling and heating energy reductions, and recharge energy requirements, with maximum deviations of ±2.5% and ±3.5% points. These methods enabled rapid parametric studies that identified optimal location-specific PCM temperatures between 22°C and 27°C, highlighting the need to consider both discharge and recharge energy requirements to achieve sustainable, energy-efficient peak load shifting across various climate zones.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗