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AI-Driven Cross-Domain Knowledge Discoveryand Hypotheses Generation for Enhanced Earth System Predictability
Focal Area(s): 1. Data acquisition, multimodal data fusion and data-to-knowledge and knowledge-to-code transformations enabled by scaling AI and unsupervised deep learning. 2. Insights (cross-domain knowledge) extracted from complex data (both observational and simulated) using AI-driven approaches and large-scale data analytics.
EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State
Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.
Wind and Structural Loads on Parabolic Trough Solar Collectors at Nevada Solar One
Wind loading is a main contributor to structural design costs of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) collectors, such as heliostats and parabolic troughs. These structures must resist the mechanical forces generated by turbulent wind. At the same time, the reflector surfaces must exhibit the necessary rigidity to maintain their optimal optical performance in windy conditions. Over two years, NREL conducted comprehensive field measurements of the atmospheric turbulent wind conditions and the resulting structural wind loads on parabolic troughs at the Nevada Solar One (NSO) plant. The measurement set-up included meteorological masts and structural load sensors on four trough rows. Additionally, we commissioned a lidar scanning the horizontal plane over the trough field. This data set catalogs the high-resolution data set characterizing the complex flow field and resulting structural loads on parabolic trough collectors. By providing this first-of-its-kind data set to the CSP community, we aim to enhance the community's understanding of wind-loading experienced by CSP collector structures. This data set will also help design next-generation solar collectors and photovoltaic trackers.
Digital Twin Empowered PV Power Prediction
The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is significant to ensure the economic and safe operation of power systems. To this end, the paper proposes a new digital twin (DT) empowered PV power prediction framework that is capable of ensuring reliable data transmission and employing the DT to achieve high accuracy of power prediction. With this framework, considering potential data contamination in the collected PV data, a generative adversarial network is employed to restore the historical data set, which offers a prerequisite to ensure accurate mapping from the physical space to the digital space. Further, a new DT empowered PV power prediction method is proposed. Therein, we model a DT that encompasses a digital physical model for reflecting the physical operation mechanism and a neural network model (i.e., a parallel network of convolution and bidirectional long-short-term memory model) for capturing the hidden spatial-temporal features. The proposed method enables the use of the DT to take advantages of the digital physical model and the neural network model, resulting in enhanced prediction accuracy. Finally, a real data set is conducted to access the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Benchmark datasets for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance bioinformatics
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has spread globally and is being surveilled with an international genome sequencing effort. Surveillance consists of sample acquisition, library preparation, and whole genome sequencing. This has necessitated a classification scheme detailing Variants of Concern (VOC) and Variants of Interest (VOI), and the rapid expansion of bioinformatics tools for sequence analysis. These bioinformatic tools are means for major actionable results: maintaining quality assurance and checks, defining population structure, performing genomic epidemiology, and inferring lineage to allow reliable and actionable identification and classification. Additionally, the pandemic has required public health laboratories to reach high throughput proficiency in sequencing library preparation and downstream data analysis rapidly. However, both processes can be limited by a lack of a standardized sequence dataset. We identified six SARS-CoV-2 sequence datasets from recent publications, public databases and internal resources. In addition, we created a method to mine public databases to identify representative genomes for these datasets. Using this novel method, we identified several genomes as either VOI/VOC representatives or non-VOI/VOC representatives. To describe each dataset, we utilized a previously published datasets format, which describes accession information and whole dataset information. Additionally, a script from the same publication has been enhanced to download and verify all data from this study.
Remote operation of the DIII-D National Fusion Facility
Abstract Full remote scientific operation of the DIII-D National Fusion Facility is now possible through significant advances in the computer science hardware and software infrastructure made over the last decade. Capabilities around information visualization, data movement, and communication have all been enhanced. The level of capability deployed to remotely operate DIII-D required an infrastructure advancement over what had previously been achieved in the fusion community. The large quantity of real-time data that is automatically displayed on DIII-D’s control room screens can now be visualized by remote participants via web-based applications. New audio/video solutions using the VoIP and instant messaging application Discord have been implemented to mimic the dynamic and ad-hoc scientific conversations that are critical in successfully operating an experimental campaign. Discord’s ability for a user to rapidly move between audio channels, text with images, and share screens is a significant enhancement over traditional videoconferencing tools. In addition, multiple combinations of broadcast audio are made available via a web-based application to allow remote participants to simultaneously listen to general announcements/sounds while conducting their own specific conversations. Secure methodologies have been put into place to allow remote control of hardware including DIII-D’s plasma control system application. Secure methods also included the ability of the on-site team to closely coordinate their work with remote team members which has been enhanced through extensions to the wireless network and the use of tablet computers for audio/video/screen sharing. However, no amount of software can fully replace the need for ‘hands on hardware.’ This infrastructure was severely stress tested during the COVID-19 pandemic where occupancy of the DIII-D control room was restricted. Operational efficiency during the pandemic, measured in discharges per hour, remained high (3.8 ± 0.8) compared to values obtained pre-pandemic (3.7 ± 0.8).
Strategies for community-sourced biocuration in bioinformatics: a case study on MIBiG 4.0
Biocuration is essential to transform molecular sequence data into standardized, machine-readable resources. Such curated datasets enable comparative analysis, predictive modeling, and data integration across bioinformatics platforms. While professional biocuration is resource-intensive and usually limited to institutional settings, community-driven approaches can mobilize large-scale annotation of specialized datasets and are more resilient to disruptions in scientific funding. Here, we present a model for community-powered curation applied to the Minimum Information about a Biosynthetic Gene Cluster (MIBiG) repository. Through a framework of workflows for metadata capture, annotation validation, and contributor coordination, the MIBiG 4.0 initiative recruited 267 scientists across 178 institutions from 33 countries, volunteering an estimated 4000 h of work. These efforts expanded the MIBiG repository by 22% and enhanced its usability in downstream molecular data analyses in comparative genomic analyses, natural product discovery, and machine learning applications. We provide strategies and actionable lessons for adopting this model, supporting the sustainability of curated bioinformatics resources central to nucleic acid research and related fields.
Machine Learning for Gearbox Fault Prediction by Using Both Scada and Modeled Data
This presentation outlines the work in the paper titled "Prognostics of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data" published by the PHM Society and presented at its 2020 annual conference. It is accessible at https://papers.phmsociety.org/index.php/phmconf/article/download/1292/862. The technical work is on machine learning approaches for prognostics for gearbox faults. The methodology combines SCADA time series data and physics domain modeling data, derived from the models developed by the NREL team, as inputs to machine learning models to predict gearbox bearing failures with one month lead time. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score, and AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve). Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision, and F1 score, and AUC is about 33%, and 12%, and 6% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.
Vehicle Modeling & Data Analysis: Transportation Secure Data Center (TSDC), Fleet DNA and the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim)
This poster provides an update on enhancements to the Future Automotive System Technology Simulator (FASTSim) and data updates to the Transportation Secure Data Center (TSDC).
$Z$-Pinch Interferometry Analysis With the Fourier-Based TNT Code
Here, we present the analysis of interferometry diagnostics with the user-friendly Talbot Numerical Tool (TNT), a Fourier-based postprocessing code that enables real-time assessment of plasma systems. TNT performance was explored with visible and infrared interferometry in pulsed-power-driven Z -pinch configurations to expand its capabilities beyond Talbot X-ray interferometry in the high-intensity laser environment. TNT enabled accurate electron density characterization of magnetically driven plasma flows and shocks through phase-retrieval methods that did not require data modification or masking. TNT demonstrated enhanced resolution, detecting below 4 % fringe shift, which corresponds to 8.7 × 10 15 cm –2 within 28 μ m, approaching the laser probing system limit. TNT was tested against a well-known interferometry analysis software, delivering an average resolving power nearly ten times better (~28 μ m versus ~ 210 μ m) when resolving plasma ablation features. TNT demonstrated higher sensitivity when probing sharp electron density gradients in supersonic shocks. A maximum electron areal density of 4.1 × 10 17 cm –2 was measured in the shocked plasma region, and a minimum electron density detection of ~ 1.0 × 10 15 cm –2 was achieved. When probing colliding plasma flows, the calculations of the effective adiabatic index and the associated errors were improved from γ* = 2.6 ± 1.6 – 1.4 ± 0.2 with TNT postprocessing, contributing valuable data for the interpretation of radiative transport. Additional applications of TNT in the characterization of pulsed-power plasmas and beyond are discussed.
Passive Temperature Sensors for Nuclear Applications
In April 2007, the Department of Energy (DOE) designated the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) a National Scientific User Facility (NSUF) to advance US leadership in nuclear science and technology. By attracting new users from universities, laboratories, and industry, this program supports basic and applied nuclear research to help address the nation's energy security needs. In support of this program, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) established in-house capabilities to develop, fabricate, test, and qualify new and enhanced temperature sensors for irradiation testing. This effort is continuing today through the DOE?s Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) program. Although most efforts emphasize sensors capable of providing real-time data, selected tasks have been completed to enhance passive sensors for irradiations where instrumentation leads cannot be included. These sensors include silicon carbide (SiC) monitors, melt wires and the sublime temperature monitor. SiC monitors are available to detect peak irradiation temperatures between 200°C and 800°C in reactor locations where instrumentation leads cannot be used. SiC monitors may be evaluated using specialized equipment installed at INL?s Measurement Sciences Laboratory (MSL). A melt wire inventory is also maintained at MSL. This inventory contains wires for specific use in irradiation experiments ranging in temperatures from 30°C to 1500°C. Melt wires and SiC monitors have had decades of research and application. Recent research has produced a passive monitor known as the sublime temperature monitor. This passive sensor has the capability of recording temperature gradients. This paper will discuss passive temperature sensors currently being researched and implemented under the ASI program.
An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework
Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.
Quantifying dispersity in size and shape of nanoparticles from small-angle scattering data using machine learning based CREASE
Here, we use machine learning (ML) enhanced computational reverse engineering analysis of scattering experiments (CREASE) to interpret small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data obtained from a system of nanoparticles without a priori knowledge of their exact shapes (e.g. spheres or ellipsoids), sizes (0.5–50 nm) and distributions. The SAXS measurements yielded three categories of scattering profiles exhibiting 'strong', 'weak' and 'no' features. Diminishing features (e.g. broadening or disappearing peaks) in scattering profiles have always been attributed to the presence of significant dispersity in the system. Such featureless SAXS data are not suitable for traditional analysis using analytical models. If one were to fit a relevant analytical model (e.g. the lmfit analytical model for polydisperse spheres) to these 'weak' and 'no' SAXS profiles from our nanoparticle systems, one would obtain non-unique interpretations of the data. Relying on electron microscopy to identify the distributions of nanoparticle shapes and sizes is also unfeasible, especially in high-throughput synthesis and characterization loops. In such situations, to identify the distributions of particle sizes and shapes that could be present in the sample, one must rely on methods like ML-CREASE to interpret the data quickly and output all relevant interpretations about the structure present in the system. The ML-CREASE optimization loop takes the experimental scattering profile as input and outputs multiple candidate solutions whose computed scattering profiles match the SAXS profile input. The ML-CREASE method outputs distributions of relevant structural features, such as the volume fraction of the nanoparticles in the system and the mean and standard deviation of the particle size and aspect ratio, assuming a type of distribution (e.g. normal, log-normal) for size and aspect ratio. We find that, for the SAXS profiles analyzed here, accounting for the shape dispersity along with size dispersity of the nanoparticles using ML-CREASE improved the match between the computed scattering profiles and input experimental profiles.
Efficient Dimension Reduction of Complex Three-dimensional CO2 Saturation using Deep Learning Models
In the domain of deep learning (DL), dimension reduction is crucial for enhancing training efficiency and mitigating overfitting, particularly when managing complex data such as three-dimensional (3D) saturation data. The 3D saturation data in the context of geological carbon storage (GCS) presents unique challenges due to its inherent sparsity and the abrupt transitions at plume boundaries, known as shock fronts. To address the challenges, we proposed a novel DL framework that integrates dimension reduction with advanced 3D reconstruction techniques. Our model leveraged latent variables derived from 2D average saturation data, offering a robust and efficient solution tailored to the intricate dynamics of 3D saturation fields. The proposed framework can extract the critical features of the high-dimensional data while reducing the variable numbers, which is more tractable for DL models and enhances the model robustness and accuracy. Therefore, it provides a novel approach for modeling and analyses in complex geological scenarios, which finds great potential applications in environmental monitoring and energy storage.
Developing a Prototype Methodology to Rank CO2-EOR Wells and Assess Their Reuse Potential for Geologic Carbon Sequestration
This study presents a prototype methodology for evaluating the reuse potential of Class II CO₂-enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) wells as Class VI wells for geologic carbon sequestration. The approach focuses on assessing wellbore construction materials—casing, cement, tubing, and packers—based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI well conversion guidelines. Utilizing Python scripts and JSON representations, the methodology automates checks on digitized Texas Railroad Commission (TRRC) data to rank wells based on regulatory and integrity criteria. Key factors include casing integrity, cementing techniques, tubing compatibility, and packer selection. Due to limitations in digitized data, manual verification is required for certain sections. Future enhancements include incorporating non-digitized data via web scraping and machine learning. This research provides a practical framework for well owners and regulators, supporting informed decision-making for sustainable CO₂ storage.
Subtask 1.5 – CO2 Injection Monitoring with an Optimized Scalable, Automated, Semipermanent Seismic Array
The scalable, automated, semipermanent seismic array (SASSA) method is a flexible and relatively cost-effective surface geophysical method for regular time-lapse monitoring of the movement of injected carbon dioxide (CO2) in a reservoir for CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) or geologic CO2 storage operations. It has the advantages of a low-environmental-footprint while monitoring regions of a reservoir from the surface without the need for a regular grid distribution of receivers. Automated data collection is possible. As only time-lapse amplitude changes at the reservoir level due to CO2 movement within the reservoir are monitored, the turnaround time to deliver results from the SASSA method can be short, without the need for long, time-consuming data-processing workflows. As data is collected and processed, incremental information can be provided to the field operator. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted a SASSA field test from September 2018 to November 2020 in a portion of the Bell Creek Field in Montana, which implemented new CO2 EOR field activities during the study period. Lessons learned from a proof-of-concept study were incorporated to improve the data quality of the SASSA method and demonstrate the viability of the technology. The EERC implemented several enhancements to improve data quality, including 1) an iterative survey design, which allowed placing the receivers in strategic locations where the movement of the CO2 in the reservoir could be tracked with minimum interference by the cultural noise in the study area; 2) the use of powerful seismic sources in the form of surface orbital vibrators, and 3) data acquisition during optimal periods. History-matched reservoir simulation was performed to predict gas saturation and pressure response induced by CO2 injection in the study area. The results were compared with the SASSA-measured responses to CO2 injection as a partial validation technique. A match between the two methods was observed for most of the SASSA points predicted to have intersected a CO2 saturation change. The validated results provide confidence that the SASSA method can be used independently as a CO2 saturation monitoring technique. As data are collected and processed, incremental information can be provided to the field operator. The critical components of the SASSA workflow for a successful application of the method are the following: Iterative survey design with information about CO2 injection activities from the oilfield operator. A detailed CO2 injection plan is the key driver to select the strategic monitoring location of the SASSA sensors. After this information is incorporated in the initial distribution of sources and receivers in the study area, high-resolution satellite images are used to identify ground locations not affected by cultural noise sources, such as power lines, pipelines/flow lines, or roadways. In the next iteration of the survey design, a scouting trip to the study area is needed to understand more details of the noise sources identified in the previous step and the intensity of the field activities that can also generate noise during the monitoring. Integrating the information from the scouting trip into the survey design to select the optimum source and receiver locations is the final step. Noise attenuation. The variety of noise types during seismic monitoring of an oil field is enormous. Tailored noise characterization and processing at a node-by-node level can enhance the performance and sensitivity of the SASSA technique. Future advancements that could improve the efficiency and application of the SASSA technology include: Gaining a better understanding of the noise field produced by the seismic source to aid the choice of receiver location. Surface noise from the source can overwhelm the small signal changes due to CO2 that the SASSA method measures. Improved data-processing workflow to automatically analyze and adapt to dynamic noise conditions associated with industrial settings. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE- FE0024233.
Confronting Large‐Eddy Simulations With Stereo Camera Data by Means of Reconstructed Hemispheric Cloud Size Distributions
High-resolution hemispheric camera images at a meteorological site in western Germany are used to analyze the multi-dimensional spatial characteristics of continental cumulus cloud fields, and to evaluate Large-Eddy Simulations on this aspect. Traditional non-hemispheric cloud-detecting instruments provide additional reference data. The main model-observation comparison focuses on cloud size distributions (CSDs), employing two methods: (a) directly using three-dimensional model fields, direct CSDs, and (b) using rendered hemispheric images of the model fields as produced by a camera simulator based on path-tracing. In the latter method, both the real and rendered images are used to three-dimensionally reconstruct the cloud fields, yielding hemispheric CSDs. Advantages of hemispheric comparisons over more classic approaches include (a) fair comparisons between model and data, and (b) full use of the enhanced resolutions and hemispheric spatial coverage of the camera imagery. Basic evaluation of the simulations demonstrates good agreement on thermodynamic structure and its diurnal cycle. Cloud heights and cloud cover are intercompared between the model, camera data and other instrumentation, providing insight into their structural differences. A consistent alignment is found between the hemispheric CSDs from both the model and the cameras. Power law fits reveal structurally lower exponents in hemispheric CSDs compared to non-hemispheric CSDs, which particularly caution against directly comparing hemispheric CSDs to non-hemispheric distributions. This result is robust for sample size and fitting method. These findings inform future use of hemispheric camera systems for studying cumulus cloud field morphology and model evaluation.